Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li₂CO₃ into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5 Mt and 2.8 Mt. Substitution of Li₂CO₃ in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li₂CO₃ supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO₂ emissions in transport is a futile campaign.     

Life cycle inventory of recycling portable nickel–cadmium batteries

In this study, the environmental impact of recycling portable nickel–cadmium (NiCd) batteries in Sweden is evaluated. A life cycle assessment approach was used to identify life cycle activities with significant impact, the influence of different recycling rates and different time boundaries for emissions of landfilled metals. Excluding the user phase of the battery, 65% of the primary energy is used in the manufacture of batteries while 32% is used in the production of raw materials. Metal emissions from batteries to water originate (96–98%) from landfilling and incineration. The transportation distance for the collection of batteries has no significant influence on energy use and emissions. Batteries manufactured with recycled nickel and cadmium instead of virgin metals have 16% lower primary energy use. Recycled cadmium and nickel metal require 46 and 75% less primary energy, respectively, compared with extraction and refining of virgin metal. Considering an infinite time perspective, the potential metal emissions are 300–400 times greater than during the initial 100 years. From an environmental perspective, the optimum recycling rate for NiCd batteries tends to be close to 100%. It may be difficult to introduce effective incitements to increase the battery collection rate. Cadmium should be used in products that are likely to be collected at the end of their life, otherwise collection and subsequent safe storage in concentrated form seems to offer the best solution to avoid dissipative losses.     

Determining the socially optimal recycling rate

What municipal recycling rate is socially optimal? One credible answer would consider the recycling rate that minimizes the overall social costs of managing municipal waste. Such social costs are comprised of all budgetary costs and revenues associated with operating municipal waste and recycling programs, all costs to recycling households associated with preparing and storing recyclable materials for collection, all external disposal costs associated with waste disposed at landfills or incinerators, and all external benefits associated with the provision of recycled materials that foster environmentally efficient production processes. This paper discusses how to estimate these four components of social cost to then estimate the optimal recycling rate.     

Incorporation of recycling flows into economy-wide material flow accounting and analysis: A case study for the Czech Republic

Economy-wide material flow accounting and analysis (EW-MFA) is considered a convenient tool for monitoring the vast range of issues related to the consumption of materials. As an increase in recycling is considered a crucial way of decreasing environmental pressures from this consumption, it makes sense to develop an indicator based on EW-MFA which would incorporate recycling flows. A prominent example of such an indicator is the cyclical use rate, which was developed by the Japanese Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society.We calculated this indicator for the Czech Republic for 2002–2011 and proved that it can also be calculated for countries other than Japan, even though we encountered some unclear methodological issues related to specific features of the Czech waste management system. We further developed two modifications of the indicator taking into consideration that one purpose of the cyclical use rate is to express the ratio of consumption of secondary (recycled) materials and primary raw materials. We discussed these modifications and showed that overall cyclical use rate in the Czech Republic lags behind Japan both in terms of absolute value and trend development, although the indicator is higher for biomass in the Czech Republic. We also showed that this unfavorable evaluation is in contradiction with some classic waste indicators, such as treatment of waste by main treatment methods which is favorably evaluated in the Czech Republic. We concluded that it would be advisable to analyze measures for increasing recycling rates introduced by Japan and assess their possible transposition into the Czech Republic's institutional and legal framework for waste management.     

How effective are current household recycling policies? Results from a national survey of U.S. households

This paper analyzes a unique dataset collected during a 2006 national survey of U.S. households to explore the effectiveness of common household recycling policies for metals, glass, and plastics: curbside recycling, drop-off recycling, deposit–refund systems (bottle bills), and marginal pricing for household waste. After estimating either generalized ordered logit or multinomial logit models, we find that the most important determinants of household recycling are people's attitudes toward recycling. Our results also suggest that omitting internal variables (perceived recycling obstacles and benefits as well as moral considerations) may bias policy coefficients. Socio-economic variables are typically not statistically significant, with the exceptions of young adults and of African Americans who tend to recycle less than others. Policies with the largest odds ratios are curbside recycling (which is further strengthened if recycling is mandatory), followed by the presence of drop-off collection centers nearby. Bottle bills are also statistically significant but their odds ratios are smaller, possibly because refunds are relatively small and typically do not change for years. Finally, marginal pricing appears to have a limited impact on recycling. These results suggest avenues for improving household recycling at a time when recycling rates appear to be plateauing.     

A future perspective on lithium-ion battery waste flows from electric vehicles

As a proactive step towards understanding future waste management challenges, this paper presents a future oriented material flow analysis (MFA) used to estimate the volume of lithium-ion battery (LIB) wastes to be potentially generated in the United States due to electric vehicle (EV) deployment in the near and long term future. Because future adoption of LIB and EV technology is uncertain, a set of scenarios was developed to bound the parameters most influential to the MFA model and to forecast “low,” “baseline,” and “high” projections of future end-of-life battery outflows from years 2015 to 2040. These models were implemented using technology forecasts, technical literature, and bench-scale data characterizing battery material composition. Considering the range from the most conservative to most extreme estimates, a cumulative outflow between 0.33 million metric tons and 4 million metric tons of lithium-ion cells could be generated between 2015 and 2040. Of this waste stream, only 42% of the expected materials (by weight) is currently recycled in the U.S., including metals such as aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, and steel. Another 10% of the projected EV battery waste stream (by weight) includes two high value materials that are currently not recycled at a significant rate: lithium and manganese. The remaining fraction of this waste stream will include materials with low recycling potential, for which safe disposal routes must be identified. Results also indicate that because of the potential “lifespan mismatch” between battery packs and the vehicles in which they are used, batteries with high reuse potential may also be entering the waste stream. As such, a robust end-of-life battery management system must include an increase in reuse avenues, expanded recycling capacity, and ultimate disposal routes that minimize risk to human and environmental health.     

Implications for the carrying capacity of lithium reserve in China

China is a major supplier of rechargeable lithium batteries for the world's consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV). Consequently, China's domestic lithium resources are being rapidly depleted, and the development of the CE and EV industries will be vulnerable to the carrying capacity of China's lithium reserves. Here we find that lithium demand in China will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of demand for CE and the briskly emerging market for EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of lithium, even with full recycling of end-of-life lithium products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 7%, the carrying duration of lithium reserves will oblige the end-of-life products recycling with a 90% rate. To sustain the lithium industry, one approach would be to develop the collection system and recycling technology of lithium-containing waste for closed-loop lithium recycling, and other future endeavors should include developing the low-lithium battery and optimizing lithium industrial structure.     

The influence of collection facility attributes on household collection rates of electronic waste: The case of televisions and computer monitors

In the US, household electronic waste collected for recycling is primarily by voluntary drop-off at designated collection facilities. This study examines the influence of specific collection facility attributes (recycling fees charged, number of days open, and driving distance) on the household collection rate of e-waste in the US state of Maine. Data were collected for household computer monitor and television collection for 92 municipal waste transfer facilities representing 30% of the state's population for one year. Results suggest that recycling fees are negatively correlated with the number of televisions and computer monitors collected; furthermore, the more frequently facilities were open, the more televisions and computer monitors were collected per capita. The distance from the facility had no correlation, which prompted an analysis of whether the existence of a curbside collection system in the municipality was influential. Results show a negative correlation between computer monitor and television collection and a municipality having recycling (but not e-waste) curbside collection. Based on the results of this study, policymakers may be able to increase the collection rate of household e-waste by eliminating or lowering recycling fees, expanding collection days and hours to increase convenience, and/or considering curbside collection of e-waste.     

A waste management planning based on substance flow analysis

The paper describes the results of a municipal solid waste management planning based on an extensive utilization of material and substance flow analysis, combined with the results of specific life cycle assessment studies. The mass flow rates of wastes and their main chemical elements were quantified with a view to providing scientific support to the decision-making process and to ensure that the technical inputs to this process are transparent and rigorous. The role of each waste management option (recycling chains, biological and thermal treatments), as well as that of different levels of household source separation and collection (SSC), was quantitatively determined. The plant requirements were consequently evaluated, by assessing the benefits afforded by the application of high quality SSC, biological treatment of the wet organic fraction, and thermal treatment of unsorted residual waste. Landfill volumes and greenhouse gas emissions are minimized, toxic organic materials are mineralized, heavy metals are concentrated in a small fraction of the total former solid waste volume, and the accumulation of atmophilic metals in the air pollution control residues allows new recycling schemes to be designed for metals. The results also highlight that the sustainability of very high levels of SSC is reduced by the large quantities of sorting and recycling residues, amounts of toxic substances in the recycled products, as well as logistic and economic difficulties of obtaining very high interception levels. The combination of material and substance flow analysis with an environmental assessment method such as life cycle assessment appears an attractive tool-box for comparing alternative waste management technologies and scenarios, and then to support waste management decisions on both strategic and operating levels.     

On the relationship between set-out rates and participation ratios as a tool for enhancement of kerbside household waste recycling

Although the use of kerbside recycling facilities by householders is often key to the reduction of materials disposed of to landfill, the quantitative assessment of householders' recycling behaviour is problematic. This study introduces a method to diagnose recycling behaviour by assessing kerbside scheme use in terms of the set-out of recyclate containers compared to the proportion of households participating in recycling (participation ratio). Application of numerical behaviour models demonstrated that kerbside recycling in sampled regions of the UK tends to be consistent with householders using kerbside schemes more frequently than would be observed with random patterns of use that are uniform amongst all householders. When aggregated to collection rounds, householders' modal recycling behaviour tended towards either non-participation or frequent participation. We propose that initiatives to enhance kerbside recycling should employ such quantitative assessments of recycling behavioural modes to inform and guide promotional and educational strategies. A conceptual model for prioritizing campaigns to promote recycling at the kerbside on the basis of identifiable and quantifiable patterns of householder recycling behaviour is presented.     

Dynamic material flow analysis of zinc resources in China

Zinc is one of the most widely applied nonferrous metals in China. Study on the applications and recurrent situation of zinc resources is of great strategic importance for the sustainable development of China's economy. In this paper, a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) method has been adopted to analyze quantificationally zinc resources in China, as well as to analyze and predict the quantity of zinc product scrap and their recycling situation. The weighted average method was applied to calculate average lifetimes of six major zinc products in China. The average lifetimes of battery, zinc oxide, zinc die-casting alloys, zinc material products, galvanized zinc and brass are 0.17, 5.3, 11.1, 12, 21 and 30 years, respectively. Assuming the lifetime of zinc product group obeys the Weibull distribution and the consumption of zinc products varies linearly with time, the future consumption and scrap generation of zinc products will increase continuously. It is expected that they would increase from 49% to 76% during 2004–2020, respectively. Assuming the recycling rate remains unchanged with time, the zinc old scrap index, both the theoretical and actual values, would continue increasing in China. The values are expected to reach 0.402 and 0.076 by 2020, respectively. Therefore, the regeneration resource of depreciated zinc is actually insufficient in China. According to the scenario analysis, the actual value of old scrap indexes is positively correlated with the recycling rate of zinc products. Because galvanized products are the largest consumption area of zinc products in China, the influence of their recycling rate on old scrap index is obviously larger than other zinc products. Through the analysis, this paper suggests that the increase of the recycling rate of zinc products could not only improve to a certain degree China's relative shortage of zinc resources, but greatly relive the supply pressure of zinc in the world.     

Wasting ways: Perceived distance to the recycling facilities predicts pro-environmental behavior

The present study aims at providing an improved understanding of the environmental factors affecting pro-environmental behavior. To this end, we introduce the economic concept of bounded rationality to the domain of recycling behavior, hypothesizing that the subjective costs of recycling are a better predictor of an individual's tendency to recycle than the objective costs. At the chosen study site, recyclables needed to be disposed of at collection centers distributed throughout the city, allowing for the analysis of recycling-related costs by assessing the distance between participants’ residence and the nearest collection center. Results from an online questionnaire completed by N = 306 citizens indicate that the perceived distance to the recycling facilities is more closely related to recycling behavior than the actual distance. By means of hierarchical regression analyses, we demonstrate that the perceived distance explains unique variance in recycling behavior while the actual distance conveys only redundant information. Surprisingly, the predictive potential of participants’ distance estimates appeared to be significantly larger for recycling behavior than for recycling intention. The implications of our results are discussed with regard to potential opportunities to promote recycling behavior by targeting individuals’ biased perception of recycling-related costs.     

Recycling inorganic domestic solid wastes: results from a pilot study in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania

Solid waste recycling and recovery approach can be a sustainable and effective waste management system in many growing cities of the least developed countries. In the course of achieving proper solid waste management, a lot of efforts in these countries have, however, been focused more on collection and disposal and ignored waste recycling which can result into income generation, employment creation and reduction of the waste quantities that will finally require disposal in the existing municipal landfills or disposal sites. This paper reports the findings of a study on solid waste recycling in a selected semi-planned settlement in Dar es Salaam City, Tanzania. The objective of the study was to describe the existing solid waste management in the study area with a view to identifying the waste generation rates, types of the wastes and determine the amount of waste from the settlement that can be recycled for the purpose of income generation and reduction of the total amount of waste to be disposed of. Findings from this study revealed that waste generation rate in the study area was 0.36 kg per person per day, and that out of the 14 600 kg of recyclable waste generated per year, 8030 kg or 55% can be recycled and generate a per capita income of Tsh 834 000 for waste recyclists which is more than twice the official minimum annual wage (Tsh 360 000) in Tanzania at the time of the study. The study also revealed that effective waste recycling in the study area would result in the reduction of the total waste that need to be transported for final disposal by 11%.     

Recycling of spent lead/acid batteries: the case of Greece

In this study, the application of modern recycling technologies in accordance with the European and Greek legislation, aiming at the recovery of lead, polypropylene and sulfuric acid from spent lead (Pb)/acid batteries, is presented. The present state of their disposal and exploitation is also depicted. The international situation is reviewed, the general trends are marked and the main technologies related to lead/acid battery treatment are reported. General recommendations are given regarding the collection of spent batteries and the installation of a recycling plant in Greece. A sensitivity analysis is carried out in order to define the most significant parameters affecting the viability of a recycling scheme. The present study proves that a possible installation of a Pb/acid batteries recycling process unit, treating 17 000 t/year (estimated total quantity) and situated in the industrial area of the greater Athens region, seems to be economically profitable. The already existing operation of small-scale battery recycling plants, common in small countries, should be discouraged as they demonstrate a rather not environmentally acceptable recycling operation.     

Cadmium—Towards a rational use of a toxic element

Because of its toxicity, cadmium creates an environmental problem as well as a health hazard for exposed workers. Most cadmium emissions arise from the intentional use of the element. It is therefore mandatory to reduce cadmium consumption to the lowest possible level. Cadmium pigments, mainly used in plastic processing, can be replaced in all applications where the processing temperature does not exceed 300°C. Newly developed polyvinyl chloride stabilizers promise to be an excellent substitute for cadmium stabilizers in even the most demanding applications. Cadmium plating, still extensively used in the United States and the West Germany, has been virtually abandoned in Japan. Improved lead acid batteries are replacing vented nickel cadmium batteries because of their cost effectiveness. While in these applications cadmium use is declining, more and more cadmium is needed for the manufacturing of sealed nickel cadmium batteries. These relatively small electrochemical cells are used mainly by individual consumers. Here cadmium can only be replaced in some marginal applications. The high cadmium content of these batteries (up to 22%) makes them a good candidate for recycling of the heavy metal.     

Demonstrating the need for the development of internal research capacity: Understanding recycling participation using the Theory of Planned Behaviour in West Oxfordshire,UK

Many UK local authorities, looking to meet their regulatory recycling targets, have opted for voluntary kerbside collection schemes for source segregated recyclables from households. The success of a recycling service is highly dependant on the number of people who participate in the service and the frequency of its use. High participation rates are therefore an essential component of any effective kerbside collection scheme. It is commonly accepted that recycling behaviour is strongly influenced and motivated by personal opinions as well as external issues such as access and convenience. This paper characterises the recycling attitudes within West Oxfordshire, UK, and compares them with the results from a previous study conducted during 2003 in Brixworth, in Daventry, UK. From 1st April 2004, West Oxfordshire District Council, expanded its kerbside collection scheme for dry recyclables, adding cardboard, batteries, aerosols and mixed plastics to the already collected recyclables (paper, glass, textiles and metals) and increasing the frequency from fortnightly to weekly In this study, the recycling attitudes and behaviour of a cross-sectional socio-economic sample from households from West Oxfordshire, is investigated. It is observed that the propensity to recycle varies between individuals and socio-economic areas, and that recycling is influenced by concern for future generations, the need to bury less waste in landfills, and the fact that recycling saves resources and protects the environment. The results from this study can be used to help inform local authorities who are considering the development of their recycling schemes and associated promotional campaigns based on an understanding of their socio-demographic profile.     

Dynamic material flow analysis of steel resources in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) is an evaluation technique that systematically identifies the flows and stocks of materials within predefined spatial and temporal boundaries. In this paper, the steel resources in Korea are investigated using dynamic MFA. Iron ore and steel scrap are added as raw material components during the production processes of steel, which is then used in a variety of product groups such as construction products, transportation equipment, machinery/metal products, electrical/electronic devices, and other products through fabrication and manufacturing processes. When such product groups are discarded, they are either recycled or landfilled. With consideration for the lifetimes of various product groups in conjunction with steel resource flows in Korea, dynamic MFA is conducted on the flows of steel stock change and annual scrap generation. By 2020, these two flows are expected to increase by as much as 40% and 30%, respectively, compared to 2008, with transportation equipment, in particular, envisaged to experience high growth. At the current recycling rate, however, it will be hard to meet future scrap demand. According to the scenario analysis, 100% of this future scrap demand can be supplied domestically if the recycling rate is increased to over 70% for all product groups, except construction products and transportation equipment, which already have high recycling rates. By 2020, the reduction in scrap importation costs is projected to offer a financial gain of 2.3 billion dollars.     

Economic and policy instrument analyses in support of the scrap tire recycling program in Taiwan

Understanding the cost-effectiveness and the role of economic and policy instruments, such as the combined product tax-recycling subsidy scheme or a tradable permit, for scrap tire recycling has been of crucial importance in a market-oriented environmental management system. Promoting product (tire) stewardship on one hand and improving incentive-based recycling policy on the other hand requires a comprehensive analysis of the interfaces and interactions in the nexus of economic impacts, environmental management, environmental valuation, and cost-benefit analysis. This paper presents an assessment of the interfaces and interactions between the implementation of policy instruments and its associated economic evaluation for sustaining a scrap tire recycling program in Taiwan during the era of the strong economic growth of the late 1990s. It begins with an introduction of the management of the co-evolution between technology metrics of scrap tire recycling and organizational changes for meeting the managerial goals island-wide during the 1990s. The database collected and used for such analysis covers 17 major tire recycling firms and 10 major tire manufacturers at that time. With estimates of scrap tire generation and possible scale of subsidy with respect to differing tire recycling technologies applied, economic analysis eventually leads to identify the associated levels of product tax with respect to various sizes of new tires. It particularly demonstrates a broad perspective of how an integrated econometric and engineering economic analysis can be conducted to assist in implementing policy instruments for scrap tire management. Research findings indicate that different subsidy settings for collection, processing, and end use of scrap tires should be configured to ameliorate the overall managerial effectiveness. Removing the existing boundaries between designated service districts could strengthen the competitiveness of scrap tires recycling industry, helping to reduce the required levels of product tax and subsidy. With such initial breakthroughs at hand to handle the complexity of scrap tire recycling technologies, there remains unique management and policy avenues left to explore if a multi-dimensional solution is to be successful in the long run.     

Material flow and industrial demand for palladium in Korea

Material flow analysis (MFA) requires the use of reliable data. In intermediate or the end industries that lack field survey data or actual statistical data, the integrated material flow analysis methodology uses bottom–up flow analysis for primary and secondary resources, and top–down flow analysis for the distribution structure. By combining the advantages of the top–down and bottom–up methods, the Integrated Material flow Analysis Methodology (IMFAM) can overcome the limitations of each methodology. Using the IMFAM, this study surveyed the material flow of palladium, and a platinoid element used in Korea. Palladium is produced as a byproduct in the copper refining process in Korea, and about 80% of used palladium as a three-way catalyst (TWC), i.e., an exhaust gas purifying system for automobiles. As automobile production in Korea is expected to continually increase, the usage of palladium is also expected to increase. Moreover, the increase in the use of printed circuit board (PCB) plating solutions is expected to further increase the use of palladium.This MFA results well represent the flow of palladium in Korea and give a strategy to secure palladium steadily.     

Phosphorus recovery and recycling from waste: An appraisal based on a French case study

Phosphate rocks, used for phosphorus (P) fertilizer production, are a non-renewable resource at the human time scale. Their depletion at the global scale may threaten global food and feed security. To prevent this depletion, improved P resource recycling from food chain waste to agricultural soils and to the food and feed industry is often presented as a serious option. However, waste streams are often complex and their recycling efficiency is poorly characterized. The aim of this paper is to estimate the P recovery and recycling potential from waste, considering France as a case study. We assessed the P flows in food processing waste, household wastewater and municipal waste at the country scale using a substance flow analysis for the year 2006. We also quantified the P recycling efficiency as the fraction of P in waste that ultimately reached agricultural soils or was recycled in the food and feed industry. Efforts were made to limit data uncertainty by cross-checking multiple data sources concerning P content in waste materials. Results showed that, in general, P recovery in waste was high but that the overall P recycling efficiency was only 51% at the country scale. In particular, P recycling efficiency was 75% for industrial waste, 43% for household wastewater and 47% for municipal waste. The remaining P was discharged into water bodies or landfilled, causing P-induced environmental problems as well as losses of nutrient resources. Major P losses were through food waste (which amounted to 39% of P in available food) and treated wastewater, and the findings were confirmed through cross-checking with alternative data sources. Options for improving P resource recycling and, thereby, reducing P fertilizer use were quantified but appeared to be less promising than scenarios based on reduced food waste or redesigned agricultural systems.