生活垃圾分类投放的演化博弈稳定性分析

随着我国生活垃圾产量不断攀升,分类投放在促进生活垃圾减量中发挥着重要作用。通过构建生活垃圾分类投放的三方动态演化博弈模型,得出满足目标策略(分类、管理、监管)的稳定性条件,并在此基础上提出规制分类投放的建议:政府加大对投放人和管理责任人不作为行为的处罚力度,降低管理责任人的管理总成本和政府的监管成本,适时调整对主动分类投放行为的经济奖励。     

基于结构方程的大学生垃圾分类行为研究

以我国某城市高校大学生为问卷调查对象,采用结构方程模型分析法探讨了大学生生活垃圾源头分类行为的影响因素。结果表明,主观规范、政策宣传、情景因素是对大学生垃圾分类行为影响最大的3个潜变量,社会责任、公众宣传、政策规范是影响大学生生活垃圾源头分类最显著的因素。为推动高校垃圾分类工作的实施与发展,对社会和高校提出了加强培育大学生社会责任感,推进法规政策建设与宣传,完善垃圾分类配套设施等建议。     

高校亲环境行为的影响因素研究?——基于大学生垃圾分类意愿视角

大学生作为社会经济发展的新兴力量,其垃圾分类等亲环境行为对提升整个社会的环境治理成效起到重要作用。本文基于计划行为理论与“知—信—行”模式,构建大学生垃圾分类意愿机理模型,对南京市在校大学生的垃圾分类意愿进行问卷调查,运用结构方程模型探究影响大学生垃圾分类意愿的关键因素,通过差异性检验探讨不同类型高校在关键因素上的差异,并通过多群组分析探讨性别、设施与服务体系在意愿影响上的差异性。研究结果表明：①环境认知会通过行为态度、知觉行为控制形成一个传导机制间接影响大学生垃圾分类意愿;②行为态度、知觉行为控制显著影响大学生垃圾分类意愿,而主观规范无显著影响;③调研高校学生的垃圾分类意愿水平存在异质性,表现为高职院校＞一般院校＞重点高校;④性别差异显著影响垃圾分类意愿,女生更容易受到主观规范的影响,而男生更容易受到知觉行为控制的影响;⑤设施与服务体系先进或落后,对垃圾分类意愿的影响无显著差异。据此,本文提出提升大学生群体垃圾分类意愿的对策建议,以期为培育大学生群体的亲环境行为及推进高校生活垃圾的分类治理提供决策参考。     

全国范围的居民生活垃圾分类参与意愿分析

分类是生活垃圾全过程管理的前提和基础，居民参与意愿是决定生活垃圾分类推行效果的重要因素。基于涵盖全国内地的1665份有效问卷，研究居民垃圾分类参与意愿及其影响因素。结果表明：多数受访者愿意参与生活垃圾分类(70.7%),不同省(区、市)间居民参与意愿差异较大，垃圾分类推广措施需根据各地实际情况适当调整。个体因素和外部因素对居民意愿影响较大。设施不完善、宣传力度低、便捷程度低、缺乏分类氛围是阻碍居民实施垃圾分类的主要因素。建议采取多样化的组合策略下，东部地区相对侧重提高垃圾分类便利性，中部地区相对侧重改善社会分类氛围和政策宣传效果，西部地区相对侧重改善垃圾分类设施和政策宣传效果。针对性地开展居民意愿研究，有助于制定更有效的政策措施，提高居民生活垃圾源头分类参与度，具有理论意义和现实价值。     

城市生活垃圾分类强制实施背景下“一主多元”治理模式的主体策略演化分析

随着经济不断发展和人民消费水平提升，垃圾分类治理问题日益严峻。实践经验表明，强制实施背景下政府主导与承包商、公众和环保组织为核心的多元主体共同参与的“一主多元”协作模式，对于我国垃圾分类治理具有较好适用性。但该模式也存在“一主”突出、“多元”不足及其他系统性冲突。为明确多元主体参与策略对“一主多元”治理模式稳定性的影响，首先，本文分析了城市生活垃圾分类强制实施背景下该模式运行机制及主体动因。然后，构建以承包商、公众和环保组织为主体的三方演化博弈系统，对不同策略组合下系统的演化结果进行演绎。最后，借助数值仿真分析了参与成本、环境收益和政府补贴对主体策略选择及系统稳定性的影响。结果表明：环保组织参与垃圾分类治理的积极性最高，公众最低；对于系统运行风险，承包商属于风险偏好者，环保组织属于风险回避者，公众属于风险中立者；承包商对参与成本最敏感，对政府补贴最不敏感，公众则正好与之相反；环境收益的提升有助于提高多元主体的参与积极性。这些发现对于如何提升多元主体参与垃圾分类治理的积极性及“一主多元”治理模式的运行效能具有启示意义。     

基于演化博弈视角的矿产资源开发生态补偿问题研究

从演化博弈视角探讨矿产资源开发企业生态补偿与政府监管之间的策略选择,首先通过建立双方的演化博弈模型,分析了相关的策略选择演化规律,得出不同情况下的演化稳定策略;其次,运用MATLAB对动态策略演化进行仿真分析。研究发现:降低政府监管成本,提高监管收益,有助于加大对补偿企业的监管力度;在政府监管的约束下,增加对生态补偿企业的补贴,提升企业生态补偿收益并降低生态补偿成本,可激励企业开展生态补偿工作。最后给出了相关政策建议。     

轿子雪山社区居民垃圾分类行为及影响因素

以轿子雪山社区为研究对象,归纳了社区垃圾种类、垃圾处理方式及设施,并运用SPSS统计软件对居民垃圾分类行为现状及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:社区垃圾分类设施需要完善,居民垃圾分类意识有待提高,居民垃圾分类教育亟待加强,同时,垃圾分类的处置便携正向且显著影响居民的垃圾分类参与意愿。     

农民对生活垃圾分类处理的意愿与行为差异研究——以浙江省为例

根据农村生活垃圾分类过程中农民分类意愿与行为的差别,利用浙江省5地(市)农民的问卷调查数据为基础,借鉴计划行为理论分析构建理论框架,采用计量经济学方法对农民分类意愿和行为的影响因素进行实证检验。结果表明:"农民是否了解生活垃圾分类的标准和要求"与垃圾收集设施类别数量对农民生活垃圾分类意愿和分类行为的影响一致;"是否有安排保洁员"、"垃圾处理是否收费"对农民生活垃圾分类行为有显著影响,但这种影响对分类意愿影响不显著;农民的年龄、家庭常住人口数对分类意愿具有显著影响,农民的受教育水平、月均收入与是否担任村干部对农民的实际分类行为具有显著影响。     

供给侧改革背景下街区开放策略演化分析——以资源共享为视角

封闭式小区既割裂了城市的发展,又制约着我国经济结构的调整,影响着我国供给侧改革的实施进程。在供给侧改革背景下,为了探究街区开放策略演化问题,从资源共享这一视角出发,综合考虑政府奖励、资源投入、资源共享、开放成本、开放风险等几个因素,构建了街区开放策略演化模型。基于上述模型,对街区开放这一复杂博弈行为进行了探讨。在上述理论分析的基础上,利用数值仿真和算例分析对影响街区开放的有关因素进行了分析。研究发现:街区开放的策略选择不但与构建模型的初始支付矩阵有关,而且与构建模型的初始参数设置有关;在一定范围内,增大政府奖励、减少开放成本、降低开放风险有利于街区的开放。基于上述研究结果,提出政策建议,以期为街区开放提供参考意见。     

供给侧改革背景下地方政府合作扶贫路径演化研究——基于创新知识投入

在供给侧结构性改革背景下,基于创新知识投入这一视角,选择我国地方政府合作扶贫行为作为研究对象,在有限理性的前提下,运用演化博弈理论构建了地方政府合作扶贫演化博弈模型,并在此基础上集中探讨了3种情形下政府合作扶贫行为路径演化轨迹,最后利用数值仿真方法研究了影响博弈系统合作稳定性的因素。结果表明:合作双方的策略选择不但与合作双方构建的博弈支付矩阵密切相关,而且还与支付矩阵的初始参数设置有关;收益系数、成本系数、风险系数是影响合作双方策略选择的重要因素,增大收益系数、减小成本系数和风险系数都有利于合作双方共同展开合作活动,达成合作共识。     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

BIOLOGICAL INDICATORS AND BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF ESTUARINE/COASTAL POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Sustained interest in and concern about the health status of the aquatic environment has resulted in extensive research focused on (1) effects of pollution on survival, growth, and reproduction of resource species at all life stages; (2) diseases of fish and shellfish, as they may be related to pollution and as they may serve as indicators of environmental stress; and (3) contaminant body burdens in fish and shellfish - their effects on the aquatic animals and their potential effects on humans. Effects, lethal and sublethal, of pollutants on life history stages of fish and shellfish have been documented, as have impacts on local stocks in badly degraded habitats, but as yet there has been no adequate quantitative demonstration of effects on entire aquatic species - probably because of the difficulty in sorting out relative effects of the many environmental factors that influence abundance. Sublethal effects, especially those that result in disease, have been examined intensively, and some diseases and disease syndromes have been associated statistically with pollution. Other pollution indicators (biochemical, physiological, genetic, behavioral, and ecological) have also received some attention, as have body burdens of contaminants in aquatic species. Research, especially that conducted during the past decade, has done much to clarify the many pathways and toxic effects of contaminants on aquatic animals, and has also helped to identify mechanisms for survival of fish and shellfish in the presence of environmental changes caused by human activities.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Journalists' views of advertiser pressures on agricultural news

All major journalism ethical codes explicitly state that journalists should protect editorial copy from undue influence by outside sources. However, much of the previous research on agricultural information has concentrated on what information various media communicate (gatekeeping studies) or communication's role in increasing innovation adoption (diffusion studies). Few studies have concentrated specifically on organizational and structural constraints that might adversely affect agricultural journalists' ethical standards; those that have, focus largely on farm magazines. A study of newspaper reporters who cover agricultural news found that the most pressing ethical concern is the effect of advertiser (agri-business) pressure on editorial copy, and that their concerns in general parallel those of farm magazine writers and editors. The majority reported being in situations in which they might be exposed to advertiser pressure, including pressures to change or withhold editorial copy. Large minorities suggested that advertising pressures affect the overall environment in which agricultural journalists work, and more than one in ten said they allow advertiser pressures to influence editorial decisions. The newspaper reporters who cover agricultural beats showed slightly more resistance to advertiser pressure than did farm magazine editors in a parallel study.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

Definition Procedures Have Little Effect on Performance of Environmental Classifications of Streams and Rivers

Mapped environmental classifications are defined using various procedures, but there has been little evaluation of the differences in their ability to discriminate variation in independent ecological characteristics. We tested the performance of environmental classifications of the streams and rivers of France that had been defined from the same environmental data using geographic regionalization and numerical classification of individual river valley segments. Test data comprised invertebrate assemblages, water chemistry, and hydrological indexes obtained from sites throughout France. Classification performance was measured by analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Geometric regions defined by a regular grid and without regard to environmental variables and a posteriori classifications based on clustering the test datasets defined lower and upper bounds of performance for a given number of classes. Differences in classification performances were generally small. The ANOSIM statistics for the a posteriori classifications were around twice that of all environmental classifications, including geometrically defined regions. The hydro-ecoregions performed slightly better for the invertebrate data and the network classification performed slightly better for the chemistry and hydrological data. Our results indicate that environmental classifications that are defined using different procedures can be comparable in terms of their ability to discriminate variation of ecological characteristics and that alleged differences in performance arising from different classification procedures can be small relative to unexplained variation. We conclude that definition procedures might have little effect on the performance of large-scale environmental classifications and decisions over which procedures to use should be based primarily on pragmatic considerations.     

Biodiversity and biotechnology

The maintenance of biodiversity is urged from many quarters and on grounds ranging from aesthetic considerations to its usefulness, particularly for biotechnology. But regardless of the grounds for preserving biodiversity, writers are generally in agreement that it should be preserved. But, in examining the various references biodiversity, such as species diversity, genetic diversity, and habitat diversity, it is apparent that we cannot aim to preserve biodiversityas such, since there are a number of conflicts in any such undertaking. In preserving one aspect of biodiversity, we damage another aspect. Five arguments which attempt to ground our moral concern for biodiversity are reviewed and critiqued, not only for their consistency but also for their power to move us to action. The final section of the paper shows how conflicts in the values of personal and environmental health can impair ethical action and especially policy formation.An earlier version of this paper was read at the conference on Agriculture, Food, and Human Values: Tradition and Change, Orlando, Florida, October 7–9, 1987.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.