Using local knowledge to model asymmetric preference formation in willingness to pay for environmental services

This paper describes an approach to account for asymmetric preference formation in discrete choice models used for environmental valuation. The paper draws on data from a case study on preferences for environmental change resulting from a hypothetical rural development and conservation programme in Indonesia. Local knowledge on the current state of the environment was used to define an individual-specific status quo that consistently frames changes in a range of environmental services as gains or losses matching the perceptions of the local population living in the vicinity of a National Park. I estimated choice models that included separate parameters for increases and decreases in attribute levels for the environmental services and derived the indicators of local willingness to pay (WTP) corresponding to the bidirectional changes relative to the individual-specific status quo option. I found clear evidence of an asymmetric response to increase and decrease in attribute levels relative to the status quo. Ignoring asymmetric preference formation can therefore result in biased estimates of WTP indicators and welfare measures of change in cases where the outcomes of environmental programmes can plausibly result in both an increase and a decrease relative to a reference option. Compared to a symmetrical modelling approach, the combination of simultaneously accounting for asymmetric preference formation and preference heterogeneity in the choice model yielded additional insights that may be used to inform the development of local strategies towards biodiversity conservation.     

Scenario realism and welfare estimates in choice experiments--a non-market valuation study on the European water framework directive

Using choice experiment data for economic valuation we analyse how disbelief in survey information could affect the retrieved welfare estimates. We distinguish between two types of survey information to the respondents. The first type of information concerns the current environmental status of a water body. This information is provided prior to the valuation questions and the corresponding beliefs in the provided information are also elicited before valuation. The second type of information concerns the proposed improvements in the environmental status of the water body. We find that average welfare measures differ considerably according to whether respondents who disagree with the status quo levels and find proposed scenarios unlikely are included or not.     

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.     

The valuation of historical sites: a case study of Valdivia,Chile

The economic valuation of cultural heritage is an area of increasing interest and an important research topic in the emerging field of cultural economics. Many services and values associated with cultural heritage are not traded in markets, and their estimation requires methods developed for the valuation of non-market goods, such as those used in environmental economics. This paper applies the contingent valuation method with double dichotomous choice to estimate the value of historical sites in the city of Valdivia, Chile. The valuation exercise was implemented by designing a hypothetical guided walking tour to a cluster of historical sites in the city centre, and surveying tourists visiting the city during the summer of 2004. Parametric and non-parametric statistical methods were used to estimate the survival distribution and the mean and median estimates of the willingness-to-pay (WTP). The study emphasizes the importance of explicitly treating heterogeneous preferences and the sensitivity of the survival distribution to the estimation methods used.     

Alternative approaches to dealing with respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation: a comparative analysis

Several strategies have been proposed to deal with response uncertainty in contingent valuation. One approach, often applied to address issues of hypothetical bias, recodes and/or reweights responses according to stated levels of certainty but so far few analyses compare alternative recoding and reweighting strategies. We explore the choice among alternative strategies that exploit a numerical certainty scale obtained from a follow-up to the payment question in a valuation survey about a whale conservation program. Two novel variations of previously followed approaches perform best on our dataset in terms of the efficiency of estimates. The first one uses an exponential transformation of the numerical certainty scale as a weight in the willingness to pay regression. The other one is based on constructing a continuous willingness to pay variable with the highly certain "yes" and "no" original responses to the payment question as extreme values and with mid-point values that correspond to the original "don't know" responses. We find, though, that the effect of using different treatment strategies on mean willingness to pay is rarely statistically significant and we fail to detect a consistent effect on the efficiency of the estimation regardless of the strategy applied.     

Valuing externalities from water supply: Status quo,choice complexity and individual random effects in panel kernel logit analysis of choice experiments

Choice experiments are often implemented with choice sets including one alternative depicting the status quo. Utility from status quo is experienced by the respondent, while utility associated with experimentally designed hypothetical alternatives is only conjectured by respondents. The effects of explicitly accounting for such a difference in the econometric analysis of the data are often unreported, or limited to fitting a ‘status quo’ constant. The paper proposes a model that explicitly accounts for these effects and attempts their decomposition using data from two choice modelling exercises designed to value the provision of environmental goods. Preferences for change versus status quo are explored with standard specifications along with a less usually applied error component analysis via mixed logit. The results suggest that alternatives offering changes from status quo do not share the same preference structure as the status quo alternative, and that estimates of spread parameters in zero-mean error components can be decomposed conditional on respondents' socio-economic characteristics. It is argued that these findings have implications for practitioners and their stance towards the strategies for the econometric analysis of choice modelling data for the purpose of valuation.     

Convergent validity between willingness to pay elicitation methods: an application to Grand Canyon whitewater boaters

We directly compare trip willingness to pay (WTP) values between dichotomous choice contingent valuation (DCCV) and discrete choice experiment (DCE) stated preference surveys of private party Grand Canyon whitewater boaters. The consistency of DCCV and DCE estimates is debated in the literature, and this study contributes to the body of work comparing the methods. Comparisons were made of mean WTP estimates for four hypothetical Colorado River flow-level scenarios. Boaters were found to most highly value mid-range flows, with very low and very high flows eliciting lower WTP estimates across both DCE and DCCV surveys. Mean WTP precision was estimated through simulation. No statistically significant differences were detected between the two methods at three of the four hypothetical flow levels.     

What Level of Information Enables the Public to Act Like Experts When Evaluating Ecological Goods?

Although contingent valuation is widely discussed in the literature as a technique for environmental valuation, it is well recognized that a number of problems are associated with its use. This paper seeks to address two of these problems: the difficulty of externally verifying the results of a CV study; and the choice of an appropriate level of information to provide to respondents. Four sites were evaluated, first by expert ecologists and then by the general public using the CV method. In conducting the CV, six different categories of information were presented to different groups of respondents to test which was most appropriate.The results show that, given an information set consisting of photographic,textual and ecological data, respondents to a CV study were able to rank the four sites in the same order as ecological experts. This may be seen as a form of external verification to the results of the contingent valuation.     

A multi-disciplinary framework to monetize financial consequences arising from CCS projects and motivate effective financial responsibility

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) holds promise as a safe and effective approach for addressing climate change. However, concern about potential “liability” associated with CCS often is cited as a significant barrier to project deployment. The authors contend that, in this context, the term “liability” is poorly defined and conflates concerns about the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential damages with the need for financial responsibility for long-term stewardship of certified closed sites. This paper offers an analytic framework drawn from damages estimation methodologies used in comparable contexts and incorporates risk-based probabilistic modeling to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential environmental, human health and financial consequences of CCS projects. Application of the proposed framework will achieve four distinct objectives. First, the outputs of the analyses – monetized damages estimates for adverse impact scenarios coupled with expected loss calculations that reflect scenario probabilities and identify the statistical range of possible outcomes, including “most likely” loss estimates – will help interested stakeholders consider the viability of various investment and financial risk management strategies. Second, the results can be used to develop or negotiate financial assurance instruments for analyzed projects. Third, the results will inform the public policy debate regarding the degree and magnitude of potential financial consequences resulting over the long-term, beyond an established post-closure period. And, fourth, while the detailed conceptual framework, resulting models, impact calculations and valuation analyses may be applied on a site-by-site basis, the site-specific results could be pooled to assess regional and national implications of various risk mitigation and financial risk management policies.     

ECONOMIC VALUATION OF RIPARIAN BUFFER AND OPEN SPACE IN A SUBURBAN WATERSHED1

Abstract: This study evaluates the economic value of riparian buffers and open space in a suburban watershed through two nonmarket valuation methods. A contingent valuation survey was implemented in the Dardenne Creek watershed, a suburban watershed of the St. Louis metropolitan area in Missouri, to evaluate the residents' perceptions of and willingness to pay (WTP) for adopting riparian buffers and preserving farmland in a hypothetical real estate market. A hedonic pricing model based on actual sale prices of homes in the watershed was applied to estimate the market value of open space and other environmental conditions such as flood zone and stream proximity in the study area. The results showed that residents' WTP was consistent with the economic values of open space and proximity to streams embedded in existing home prices. Through a better understanding of residents' perceptions and values, riparian buffer and open space programs can be designed and promoted to achieve greater implementation success and environmental benefit.     

Air quality assessment by contingent valuation in Ji'nan, China

Along with urbanization and environmental deterioration within China, many residents' desire for improved air quality has increased. To address this topic, this study focuses on the relationship between poor air quality and residents' willingness to pay for improved air quality in the city of Ji'nan. As a means of quantifying an individual's willingness to pay (WTP) for improved air quality, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1500 residents was chosen, based on the stratified sampling method. The respondents' WTP was then elicited through a series of face-to-face interviews, conducted using a range of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions. The results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express a positive WTP, and that the average WTP was 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person, per year. In order to establish the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP, both a Probit model on the probability of a positive WTP, and a stepwise regression model were constructed. Most parameters in the econometric analysis demonstrated the expected results. It was found that annual household income, expenditure on the treatment of respiratory diseases and workers in the family significantly influenced WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount were also larger for men than for women. Unlike developed countries, most respondents regard air quality improvement as a government responsibility in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, indicating a relatively low environmental consciousness.     

Social influences on expressed willingness to pay: results of a deliberative monetary valuation study in Colombia

Deliberative monetary valuation (DMV) methods can support environmental decision making by enabling the exchange of arguments and information to produce more democratic outcomes. The product of a valuation may be an array of expressions of willingness to pay (WTP) by individuals or a collectively agreed monetary value. Concerns have been raised, however, as to whether this product is an outcome of thoughtful and independent decision-making or influenced by social pressures to conform. Our study examines this issue and addresses concerns about the use of DMV, based on a public deliberation of forest conservation in Colombia. We analyzed the impacts of social conformity on WTP under two different decision scenarios: individual and collective. The results suggest that the impacts of social conformity are greater when a collective decision is required. These findings indicate that tensions between the differing goals of DMV could undermine its democratic promise.     

Exploring Values,Context and Perceptions in Contingent Valuation Studies: The CV Market Stall Technique and Willingness to Pay for Wildlife Conservation

Public preferences for conservation and environmental management may be identified in willingness to pay (WTP) studies. Normally part of a contingent valuation exercise, WTP studies elicit monetary estimates of non-market economic goods. This paper describes a new approach to WTP, the CV Market Stall, a technique that adds a discursive, qualitative dimension to contingent valuation. It is suggested that the CV Market Stall technique is a good method for exploring attitudes and responses to environmental project proposals. The flexible format, with an emphasis upon information provision, discussion and learning would also allow contingent valuation to be extended to much more complex and uncertain environmental issues.     

Development of a bias ratio to examine factors influencing hypothetical bias

Using data from three contingent valuation studies, this study investigates if socio-economic factors and the type of good being valued can help explain changes in respondents' answers. A bias ratio, defined as the ratio of respondents who change their choice under hypothetical and "real" settings, is developed to help explain changes in respondents' answers. Marginal changes in the bias ratio resulting from a change in a particular independent variable consist of changes in responses in both the hypothetical and real situation. Results provide limited evidence that socio-economic variables and type of good being study can help in explaining bias. Respondents who are older, have a higher level of education, and are environmentally conscious tend to show less bias. Familiarity with the good also tend to decrease bias. A large amount of the variation in bias, however, remains unexplained.     

The effect of experience on choosing where to go: an application to a choice experiment on forest recreation

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of experience on the choice of visits to forests in a stated discrete choice experiment. Recent literature has indicated that experiences with the environmental services valuated may increase the respondents' certainty in their choice of hypothetical alternatives. We apply two indicators of experiences: the number of visits and the number of different forests visited during the last year. Applying the generalized multinomial logit model, we find that an increase in the number of visits to forests makes respondents' choices more predictable. However, the number of different forests visited reduces the predictability of choices. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between respondents' experience of forest recreation and the self-reported choice certainty, controlling for respondents' social-demographics and other design characteristics. Finally, we show that self-reported choice certainty is positive correlated with the scale factor, as expected.     

Linking GIS-based models to value ecosystem services in an Alpine region

Planning frequently fails to include the valuation of public goods and services. This can have long-term negative economic consequences for a region. This is especially the case in mountainous regions such as the Alps, which depend on tourism and where land-use changes can negatively impact key ecosystem services and hence the economy. In this study, we develop a semi-automatic procedure to value ecosystem goods and services. Several existing process-based models linked to economic valuation methods are integrated into a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The model requires the input of a digital elevation model, a land-cover map, and a spatially explicit temperature dataset. These datasets are available for most regions in Europe. We illustrate the approach by valuing four ecosystem services: avalanche protection, timber production, scenic beauty, and habitat, which are supplied by the “Landschaft Davos”, an administrative district in the Swiss Alps. We compare the impacts of a human development scenario and a climate scenario on the value of these ecosystem services. Urban expansion and tourist infrastructure developments have a negative impact on scenic beauty and habitats. These impacts outweigh the benefits of the developments in the long-term. Forest expansion, predictable under a climate change scenario, favours natural avalanche protection and habitats. In general, such non-marketed benefits provided by the case-study region more than compensate for the costs of forest maintenance. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. Despite its limitations, we show how this approach could well help decision-makers balance the impacts of different planning options on the economic accounting of a region, and guide them in selecting sustainable and economically feasible development strategies.     

Intelligent Databases Assist Transparent and Sound Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services

Assessment and economic valuation of services provided by ecosystems to humans has become a crucial phase in environmental management and policy-making. As primary valuation studies are out of the reach of many institutions, secondary valuation or benefit transfer, where the results of previous studies are transferred to the geographical, environmental, social, and economic context of interest, is becoming increasingly common. This has brought to light the importance of environmental valuation databases, which provide reliable valuation data to inform secondary valuation with enough detail to enable the transfer of values across contexts. This paper describes the role of next-generation, intelligent databases (IDBs) in assisting the activity of valuation. Such databases employ artificial intelligence to inform the transfer of values across contexts, enforcing comparability of values and allowing users to generate custom valuation portfolios that synthesize previous studies and provide aggregated value estimates to use as a base for secondary valuation. After a general introduction, we introduce the Ecosystem Services Database, the first IDB for environmental valuation to be made available to the public, describe its functionalities and the lessons learned from its usage, and outline the remaining needs and expected future developments in the field.     

Scenario analysis: a review of methods and applications for engineering and environmental systems

Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applications and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA application goals (environmental, business, and social). SA methodology used in each paper was assessed based on four main criteria: coverage, consistency, uncertainty assessment, and efficiency. We find a significant increase in SA applications, especially in the environmental field. Theoretical developments in the field represent a small fraction of published studies and do not increase in time. The methods used to develop different scenarios vary widely across the academic literature and applications reviewed. Similarly, the methods and data used to characterize the scenarios and develop response strategies are extremely diverse and are limited by factors such as computational tractability and available time and resources. Based on this review, we recommend a regular process for scenario analysis that includes the steps of analysis, scenario definition, and evaluation.     

An Optimization Method Based on Scenario Analysis for Watershed Management Under Uncertainty

In conjunction with socioeconomic development in watersheds, increasingly challenging problems, such as scarcity of water resources and environmental deterioration, have arisen. Watershed management is a useful tool for dealing with these issues and maintaining sustainable development at the watershed scale. The complex and uncertain characteristics of watershed systems have a great impact on decisions about countermeasures and other techniques that will be applied in the future. An optimization method based on scenario analysis is proposed in this paper as a means of handling watershed management under uncertainty. This method integrates system analysis, forecast methods, and scenario analysis, as well as the contributions of stakeholders and experts, into a comprehensive framework. The proposed method comprises four steps: system analyses, a listing of potential engineering techniques and countermeasures, scenario analyses, and the optimal selection of countermeasures and engineering techniques. The proposed method was applied to the case of the Lake Qionghai watershed in southwestern China, and the results are reported in this paper. This case study demonstrates that the proposed method can be used to deal efficiently with uncertainties at the watershed level. Moreover, this method takes into consideration the interests of different groups, which is crucial for successful watershed management. In particular, social, economic, environmental, and resource systems are all considered in order to improve the applicability of the method. In short, the optimization method based on scenario analysis proposed here is a valuable tool for watershed management.     

Estimating the value of improved wastewater treatment: The case of River Ganga,India

In this paper we employ a stated preference environmental valuation technique, namely the choice experiment method, to estimate local public’s willingness to pay (WTP) for improvements in the capacity and technology of a sewage treatment plant (STP) in Chandernagore municipality, located on the banks of the River Ganga in India. A pilot choice experiment study is administered to 150 randomly selected Chandernagore residents and the data are analysed using the conditional logit model with interactions. The results reveal that residents of this municipality are willing to pay significant amounts in terms of higher monthly municipality taxes to ensure the full capacity of the STP is used for primary treatment and the technology is upgraded to enable secondary treatment. Overall, the results reported in this paper support increased investments to improve the capacity and technology of STPs to reduce water pollution, and hence environmental and health risks that are currently threatening the sustainability of the economic, cultural and religious values this sacred river generates.