重大安全风险事件特征再认识——以新冠肺炎疫情为例

本文系统回顾了新冠肺炎疫情的发生、传播、爆发,以及下一步发展等问题的客观现状,在此基础上深入探讨了重大安全风险事件的形态新颖性、发生意外性、发展爆炸性、演变复杂性等特征。结合对特征的认识,本文给出了针对重大安全风险事件治理者在防灾、备灾、抗灾、救灾方面的启示与建议。     

数字赋能 “智理”城市——访深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院技术总监袁狄平教授

2019年,中共中央政治局就我国应急管理体系和能力建设第十九次集体学习时,习近平总书记强调:我国各类事故隐患和安全风险交织叠加、易发多发,影响公共安全的因素日益增多。且要健全风险防范化解机制,坚持从源头上防范化解重大安全风险。为探讨当下公共安全热点问题及解决措施,我刊采访了深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院技术总监袁狄平教授。     

一种安全分析新思路安全薄弱环节评价

职业安全和公共安全有许多共同点,可以把公共安全技术用于职业安全,公共安全主要有3种工作方法:安全监察、风险评价(或叫设计隐患)和薄弱环节评价.后者常常最有效.公共安全的薄弱评价法可以用于职业安全分析,象"坏人"一样思考有利于辨识安全薄弱环节.安全薄弱环节评价可以为职业安全分析提供新的视角.     

一种安全分析新思路--安全薄弱环节评价

职业安全和公共安全有许多共同点,可以把公共安全技术用于职业安全,公共安全主要有3种工作方法：安全监察、风险评价（或叫设计隐患）和薄弱环节评价。后者常常最有效。公共安全的薄弱评价法可以用于职业安全分析,象“坏人”一样思考有利于辨识安全薄弱环节。安全薄弱环节评价可以为职业安全分析提供新的视角。     

公共安全

我国是灾害多发频发的国家,为防范化解重特大安全风险,健全公共安全体系,2018年3月13日,第十三届全国人民代表大会第一次会议审议国务院机构改革方案,组建了应急管理部。2019年11月29日中共中央政治局就我国应急管理体系和能力建设第十九次集体学习时,习近平总书记强调,我国各类事故隐患和安全风险交织叠加、易发多发,影响公共安全的因素日益增多。且要健全风险防范化解机制,坚持从源头上防范化解重大安全风险。鉴于此,本期特策划“公共安全”专题。     

新修《安全生产法》对生产经营单位安全生产保障义务的新要求

为探究新修《安全生产法》在生产经营单位安全生产保障义务方面的新变化,本文从安全生产主体责任方面暴露的突出问题入手,对新修《安全生产法》中生产经营单位安全生产保障义务提出的保障义务内容、主要变化、不履行保障义务的法律风险进行详细分析,结果显示,变化主要体现在:安全保障义务从生产安全向公共安全拓展;从个别(局部)责任向全员责任拓展;从人的行为向人的心理拓展.对于不履行义务处罚力度加重、联合惩戒风险增加还可能承担刑事制裁风险.并针对这些变化提出生产经营单位贯彻落实好《安全生产法》的建议.     

化工项目施工作业风险分析

化工项目施工过程中存在动态变化的、相互叠加的、集成化的作业风险。以往的研究缺乏对动态、叠加风险的全面考虑和定量分析,难以满足化工项目施工中特定风险管理的现实要求。为有效地管理和控制化工项目施工作业风险,分析施工作业在时间、空间上的变化和叠加现象,以作业风险模型为基础,建立兼顾动态风险和叠加风险的系统性作业风险模型。运用该模型计算某个实例化工项目施工期典型时段各建设单元前后期风险变化值及其相互叠加的风险值,绘制其施工区域风险分布图。结果表明,当前主生产车间、辅助车间、喷塔楼、2号仓库区域设备集中、人员密集、作业交叉、事故发生风险较高,是安全管理的重点部位。就此,提出具体风险控制措施。     

安全培训信息管理平台建设及运用

正当前,传统及新型生产经营方式并存,各类事故隐患和安全风险交织叠加,生产安全事故总量较大,重特大事故仍然时有发生。多数生产安全事故发生是由于企业安全生产主体责任落实不力,企业安全生产培训考核不到位,从业人员安全意识不强、操作技能不高等因素造成的。严格安全生产资格考核管理是从根本上解决安全培训不到位等问题的重要手段,通过严格考核,     

基于风险场的评价理论研究

目前,已经有多种方法可以用于石油化工企业的定量风险评价,但是这些方法多数是基于二维的风险分析,不能满足当今社会日趋增长的三维空间的安全管理和风险评价要求,因此,提出了三维的风险场的评价理论,从三维风险等值面来考察风险的分布和风险变化率.该方法采用场论的基本知识,把风险场看作数量场,对不同事故的个人风险及其风险梯度进行叠加,得到个人风险及其变化率.针对同一个危险源产生的爆炸、火灾和中毒三种风险属性,给出了其叠加后的个人风险和个人风险变化率公式,在相应的坐标系中并对二维和三维个人风险的不同的空间分布进行了比较.该方法能够清晰、直观、全面地表示出个人风险场的分布情况,同时能够了解到多个风险共同作用下的风险变化情况.     

预防工作场所的新风险——2010年“世界职业安全健康日”活动报告摘要

近几十年来,随着全球化的迅猛发展,工作场所的各项技术已取得重大进步,世界各地的许多工作也发生了变化。这些变化对职业安全健康的影响也是显著的,较传统的危害和风险已经得到减少或消除,但是新技术带来的新风险日益显著。     

Mitigating construction safety risks using prevention through design

Introduction

Research and practice have demonstrated that decisions made prior to work at construction sites can influence construction worker safety. However, it has also been argued that most architects and design engineers possess neither the knowledge of construction safety nor the knowledge of construction processes necessary to effectively perform Construction Hazards Prevention through Design (CHPtD).

Method

This paper introduces a quantitative methodology that supports designers by providing a way to evaluate the safety-related performance of residential construction designs using a risk analysis-based approach. The methodology compares the overall safety risk level of various construction designs and ranks the significance of the various safety risks of each of these designs. The methodology also compares the absolute importance of a particular safety risk in various construction designs.

Results

Because the methodology identifies the relevance of each safety risk at a particular site prior to the construction stage, significant risks are highlighted in advance. Thus, a range of measures for mitigating safety risks can then be implemented during on-site construction.

Impact on industry

The methodology is specially worthwhile for designers, who can compare construction techniques and systems during the design phase and determine the corresponding level of safety risk without their creative talents being restricted. By using this methodology, construction companies can improve their on-site safety performance.     

Assessment of hazardous material risks for rail yard safety

This paper illustrates the application of quantitative risk assessment in a rail yard where tank cars of hazardous materials are received and stored. The assessment was conducted in response to community concerns about the safety of a proposed yard expansion. Six different chemicals are involved. For each one, the average monthly volume and the hazard of most concern are specified. We use an event tree populated with empirical data to compute the probability of a major spill in each case and we estimate the corresponding critical impact distances using available modeling tools. We find that for some of the chemicals, the relative increases in risk are appreciable, but that in all cases, the absolute levels of risk remain low. Then we identify some ways in which such an analysis can be extended and discuss the potential difficulties associated with these extensions.     

浅析数字化集气站安全风险及控制措施

苏里格气田地处毛乌素沙漠,是典型的低渗、低压、低丰度岩性气藏,单井产量低,建井数量多,靠人工管理的难度大,本着降本增效、减少风险的原则,数字化集气站在苏里格气田得到了大力推广,其应用过程中面临着与传统集气站不同的安全风险。文章对数字化集气站运行过程中的各类安全风险进行了分析,介绍了风险应对的控制措施,期望为数字化集气站的安全管理提供新的思路。     

Towards a European energy risks monitor to consistently map safety and security risks of different energy infrastructures

After mapping of current European Union regulations on the management of accident risks related to natural hazards and different industrial activities, this paper discusses insights from past and current European Commission initiatives on harmonisation of assessment and management of safety risks. The problem of safety comparison and risk/benefit communication is of critical importance for sustainable decision making. For the specific case of the energy sector, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) and DG TREN (Directorate General for Transport and Energy) have recently started two connected initiatives, called energy risks monitor (ERMON) and safety and security of energy infrastructures in a comparative view (SEIF-CV). While ERMON deals with the development of a methodology and corresponding web-based information system to cross-compare in a consistent way safety, risk and reliability performances of different energy systems (fossil, nuclear, renewables) across their specific fuel cycle chains, SEIF-CV creates a corresponding network of stakeholders in the energy sector as well as the necessary review and user panels for ERMON. Objectives and status of ERMON and SEIF-CV are described.     

Applying online fleet driver assessment to help identify,target and reduce occupational road safety risks

Many studies have shown that driver attitude and behaviour are important determinants of the likelihood of collision involvement. Knowledge of the Rules of the Road and the perception of hazards are also associated with collision involvement. The aim of this paper is to review the practical application of an online fleet driver assessment program to help identify, target and reduce occupational road safety risks. A large and unique data set collected from online assessment of drivers employed in a UK telecommunications organisation is analyzed. Data was also collected on driver demographics and their driving and collision history. Analysis of the data revealed that attitude, behaviour, knowledge and hazard perception are highly correlated with self-reported collisions. The influence of these variables on collision involvement was assessed using a Poisson regression model. Both attitude and behaviour scores exhibit a statistically significant association with collision involvement, along with other variables such as mileage driven, driver age and personality. The findings lend support to the need to create a safety culture in which driver assessment and improvement is the norm, as well as reducing exposure to risk wherever possible through better ways of working and travelling.     

基于贝叶斯网络的我国电网安全风险关联分析

为了有效识别电网运行的关键风险要素,基于典型电网企业2014-2019年代表性事故案例,采用贝叶斯网络的机器学习方法分别构建了电网事故、设备事故及人身事故致因的贝叶斯网络模型,分析各风险因素对事故的影响程度并反向诊断事故发生的关键诱因.结果表明:1)3种贝叶斯网络模型预测精度分别达到87.85％、89.24％、96.88％;2)不同类型事故的关键风险因素存在差异,但人因仍是主要致因.电网事故的关键影响因素为巡检不到位、检修质量不良和验收不合格;设备事故的关键风险因素为处理不当、巡检不到位和施工质量不良;人身事故的关键风险因素为安全意识缺乏、施工质量不良、监护不到位和验收不合格.最后,对电网系统安全运行提出了针对性建议.     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram: An innovative approach

A bow-tie diagram combines a fault tree and an event tree to represent the risk control parameters on a common platform for mitigating an accident. Quantitative analysis of a bow-tie is still a major challenge since it follows the traditional assumptions of fault and event tree analyses. The assumptions consider the crisp probabilities and “independent” relationships for the input events. The crisp probabilities for the input events are often missing or hard to come by, which introduces data uncertainty. The assumption of “independence” introduces model uncertainty. Elicitation of expert's knowledge for the missing data may provide an alternative; however, such knowledge incorporates uncertainties and may undermine the credibility of risk analysis.This paper attempts to accommodate the expert's knowledge to overcome missing data and incorporate fuzzy set and evidence theory to assess the uncertainties. Further, dependency coefficient-based fuzzy and evidence theory approaches have been developed to address the model uncertainty for bow-tie analysis. In addition, a method of sensitivity analysis is proposed to predict the most contributing input events in the bow-tie analysis. To demonstrate the utility of the approaches in industrial application, a bow-tie diagram of the BP Texas City accident is developed and analyzed.     

Transformational and passive leadership as cross-level moderators of the relationships between safety knowledge,safety motivation,and safety participation

IntroductionWhile safety knowledge and safety motivation are well-established predictors of safety participation, less is known about the impact of leadership styles on these relationships.MethodThe purpose of the current study was to examine whether the positive relationships between safety knowledge and motivation and safety participation are contingent on transformational and passive forms of safety leadership.ResultsUsing multilevel modeling with a sample of 171 employees nested in 40 workgroups, we found that transformational safety leadership strengthened the safety knowledge–participation relationship, whereas passive leadership weakened the safety motivation–participation relationship.ConclusionsUnder low transformational leadership, safety motivation was not related to safety participation; under high passive leadership, safety knowledge was not related to safety participation.Practical ApplicationsThese results are discussed in light of organizational efforts to increase safety-related citizenship behaviors.