Assessing the Hydrologic and Water Quality Benefits of a Network of Stormwater Control Measures in a SE U.S. Piedmont Watershed

The hydrologic and water quality benefits of an existing engineered stormwater control measures (SCMs) network, along with the alternative stormwater control simulations, were assessed in the rapidly urbanizing Beaverdam Creek watershed located in SE U.S. Piedmont region through the use of distributed Model of Urban Stormwater Improvement Conceptualization stormwater model. When compared with predevelopment conditions, the postdevelopment watershed simulation without SCMs indicated a 2 times increase in total runoff volume, 3 times average increase in peak flow for 1.5‐3.2 cm 6‐h storm events, and 30 times, 12 times, and 3 times higher total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorous (TP), and total nitrogen (TN) loadings, respectively. The existing SCMs network, in comparison with the postdeveloped watershed without SCMs, reduced the average peak flow rates for 1.5‐3.2 cm 6‐h storm events by 70%, lowered the annual runoff volume by 3%, and lowered TSS, TP, TN annual loads by 57, 51, and 10%, respectively. A backyard rain garden simulation resulted in minimal additional reduction in TSS (1.6%), TP (0.4%), and TN (4%). Model simulations indicate that mandatory 85% TSS and 70% TP annual load reductions in comparison with the predevelopment levels would require the diversion of runoff from at least 70% of the contributing drainage areas runoff into additional offline bioretention basins.     

Diffuse pollution loading from urban stormwater runoff in Daejeon city, Korea

In this paper, stormwater runoff from an urban watershed with combined sewer systems located in Daejeon metropolitan city, Korea, was characterized to measure the stormwater runoff discharge rates and pollutant concentrations. The observed averaged event mean concentrations (EMCs) of combined sewer overflows (CSO) were 536.1mg TSS/L, 467.7 mg TCODcr/L, 142.7 mg TBOD/L, 16.5mg TN/L, and 13.5mg TP/L. A detention basin was proposed to reduce CSO, and its essential design elements were discussed. The first flush significantly affected contaminant constituents in the descending order of suspended solid>organics>nutrients. Storage volumes for containing the first flush to improve water quality of the receiving stream can be estimated based on the total suspended solid loading. In this study, detention of the first flush equivalent to 5mm of precipitation could reduce CSO-induced diffuse pollution loading to a receiving water body by up to 80% of the total suspended solid loading.     

ALAWAT: A spatially allocated watershed model for approximating stream,sediment, and pollutant flows in Hawaii,USA

The Ala Wai Canal Watershed Model (ALAWAT) is a planning-level watershed model for approximating direct runoff, streamflow, sediment loads, and loads for up to five pollutants. ALAWAT uses raster GIS data layers including land use, SCS soil hydrologic groups, annual rainfall, and subwatershed delineations as direct model parameter inputs and can use daily total rainfall from up to ten rain gauges and streamflow from up to ten stream gauges. ALAWAT uses a daily time step and can simulate flows for up to ten-year periods and for up to 50 subwatersheds. Pollutant loads are approximated using a user-defined combination of rating curve relationships, mean event concentrations, and loading/washoff parameters for specific subwatersheds, land uses, and times of year. Using ALAWAT, annual average streamflow and baseflow relationships and urban suspended sediment loads were approximated for the Ala Wai Canal watershed (about 10,400 acres) on the island of Oahu, Hawaii. Annual average urban suspended sediments were approximated using two methods: mean event concentrations and pollutant loading and washoff. Parameters for the pollutant loading and washoff method were then modified to simulate the effect of various street sweeping intervals on sediment loads.     

Evaluating Infiltration Requirements for New Development Using Extreme Storm Transposition: A Case Study from Dane County,WI

Changes in land use and extreme rainfall trends can lead to increased flood vulnerability in many parts of the world, especially for urbanized watersheds. This study investigates the performance of existing stormwater management strategies for the Upper Yahara watershed in Dane County, WI to determine whether they are adequate to protect urban and suburban development from an extreme rainfall. Using extreme storm transposition, we model the performance of the stormwater infiltration practices required for new development under current county ordinances. We find during extreme rainfall the volume of post‐development runoff from impervious surfaces from a typical site would increase by over 55% over pre‐development conditions. We recommend the ordinance be strengthened to reduce vulnerability to flooding from future urban expansion and the likely increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storms.     

Fecal Coliform Export From Four Coastal North Carolina Areas1

Abstract: Fecal coliform (FC) bacteria in coastal waters impair the use of these waters for shellfish harvesting and recreation. This study was designed to quantify and compare FC levels and export in two coastal watersheds with different land uses. Continuous monitoring of rainfall and discharge at three sites in the Jumping Run Creek watershed and one site in the Pettiford Creek watershed were conducted during a 4.5‐year period. Primary land use in the drainage area of one of the three Jumping Run Creek sites is low density industrial, while the other two are residential. Land use in the Pettiford Creek watershed is managed national forest. Nonstorm or base‐flow grab and flow‐proportional storm‐event samples were collected and analyzed for turbidity, conductivity, suspended sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus, and FC. Geometric mean FC levels for the Jumping Run Creek monitoring sites ranged from 593 to 2,096 mpn/100 ml, while the mean level at the Pettiford Creek site was 191 mpn/100 ml. Levels of most other parameters were greater in storm discharge from the Jumping Run Creek sites as compared to Pettiford Creek indicating that pollutant export from a watershed increases with development. Statistical analysis of the monitoring data suggested that FC levels in stormwater samples consistently increased with storm rainfall, but were not consistently correlated with any other parameter, including total suspended solids. Multivariate analysis indicated that the weekly FC export for each of the four sites was lowest during the December‐February quarter. Export was highest during the spring and summer at the Jumping Run Creek sites, while for the Pettiford Creek site, FC export was highest during September‐November. The cause of the seasonal variability was unknown but was thought to be associated with human activity in the watersheds.     

Detention Outlet Retrofit Improves the Functionality of Existing Detention Basins by Reducing Erosive Flows in Receiving Channels

By discharging excess stormwater at rates that more frequently exceed the critical flow for stream erosion, conventional detention basins often contribute to increased channel instability in urban and suburban systems that can be detrimental to aquatic habitat and water quality, as well as adjacent property and infrastructure. However, these ubiquitous assets, valued at approximately $600,000 per km² in a representative suburban watershed, are ideal candidates to aid in reversing such cycles of channel degradation because improving their functionality would not necessarily require property acquisition or heavy construction. The objective of this research was to develop a simple, cost‐effective device that could be installed in detention basin outlets to reduce the erosive power of the relatively frequent storm events (~ < two‐year recurrence) and provide a passive bypass to maintain flood control performance during infrequent storms (such as the 100‐year recurrence). Results from a pilot installation show that the Detain H₂O device reduced the cumulative sediment transport capacity of the preretrofit condition by greater than 40%, and contributed to reduced flashiness and prolonged baseflows in receiving streams. When scaling the strategy across a watershed, these results suggest that potential gains in water quality and stream channel stability could be achieved at costs that are orders of magnitude less than comparable benefits from newly constructed stormwater control measures.     

Stormwater Runoff Quality and Quantity From Traditional and Low Impact Development Watersheds1

Abstract: The quality and quantity of residential stormwater runoff from a control, traditional, and low impact development (LID) watershed were compared in a paired watershed study. A traditional neighborhood was built using typical subdivision standards while a LID design was constructed with best management practices including grass swales, cluster housing, shared driveways, rain gardens, and a narrower pervious concrete‐paver road. Weekly, flow‐weighted, composite samples of stormwater were analyzed for nitrate + nitrite‐nitrogen (NO₃ + NO₂‐N), ammonia‐nitrogen (NH₃‐N), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended solids (TSS). Monthly composite samples were analyzed for total copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). Mean weekly storm flow increased (600x) from the traditional watershed in the postconstruction period. Increased exports of TKN, NO₃ + NO₂‐N, NH₃‐N, TP, Cu, Zn, and TSS in runoff were associated with the increased storm flow. Postconstruction storm flow in the LID watershed was reduced by 42% while peak discharge did not change from preconstruction conditions. Exports were reduced from the LID watershed for NH₃‐N, TKN, Pb, and Zn, while TSS and TP exports increased.     

MODELING DEVELOPED COASTAL WATERSHEDS WITH THE AGRICULTURAL NON-POINT SOURCE MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Many coastal states are facing increasing urban growth along their coast lines. The growth has caused urban non-point source nitrogen runoff to be a major contributor to coastal and estuarine enrichment. Water resource managers are responsible for evaluating the impacts from point and non-point sources in developed watersheds and developing strategies to manage future growth. Non-point source models provide an effective approach to these management challenges. The Agricultural Non-Point Source Model (AGNPS) permits the incorporation of important spatial information (soils, landuse, topography, hydrology) in simulating surface hydrology and nitrogen non-point source runoff. The AGNPS model was adapted for developed coastal watersheds by deriving urban coefficients that reflect urban landuse classes and the amount of impervious surface area. Popperdam Creek watershed was used for model parameter development and model calibration. Four additional watersheds were simulated to validate the model. The model predictions of the peak flow and total nitrogen concentrations were close to the field measurements for the five sub-basins simulated. Measured peak flow varied by 30 fold among the sub-basins. The average simulated peak flow was within 14 percent of the average measured peak flow. Measured total nitrogen loads varied over an order of magnitude among the sub-basins yet error between the measured and simulated loads for a given sub-basin averaged 5 percent. The AGNPS model provided better estimates of nitrogen loads than widely used regression methods. The spatial distribution of important watershed characteristics influenced the impacts of urban landuse and projecting future residential expansion on runoff, sediment and nitrogen yields. The AGNPS model provides a useful tool to incorporate these characteristics, evaluate their importance, and evaluate fieldscale to watershed-scale urban impacts.     

Flow,Organic, and Inorganic Sediment Yields from a Channelized Watershed in the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain

Many small streams in coastal watersheds in the southeastern United States are modified for agricultural, residential, and commercial development. In the South Carolina Lower Coastal Plain, low‐relief topography and a shallow water table make stream channelization ubiquitous. To quantify the impacts of urbanization and stream channelization, we measured flow and sediment from an urbanizing watershed and a small forested watershed. Flow and sediment export rates were used to infer specific yields from forested and nonforested regions of the urbanizing watershed. Study objectives were to: (1) quantify the range of runoff‐to‐rainfall ratios; (2) quantify the range of specific sediment yields; (3) characterize the quantity and quality of particulate matter exported; and (4) estimate sediment yield attributable to agriculture, development, and channelization activities in the urbanizing watershed. Our results showed that the urban watershed exported over five times more sediment per unit area compared with the forested watershed. Sediment concentration was related to flow flashiness in the urban watershed and to flow magnitude in the forested watershed. Sediments from the forested watershed were dominated by organic matter, whereas mineral matter dominated sediment from the urban stream. Our results indicated that a significant shift in sediment quality and quantity are likely to occur as forested watersheds are transformed by urbanization in coastal South Carolina.     

Integrated Modular Modeling of Water and Nutrients From Point and Nonpoint Sources in the Patuxent River Watershed1

Abstract: We present a simple modular landscape simulation model that is based on a watershed modeling framework in which different sets of processes occurring in a watershed can be simulated separately with different models. The model consists of three loosely coupled submodels: a rainfall‐runoff model (TOPMODEL) for runoff generation in a subwatershed, a nutrient model for estimation of nutrients from nonpoint sources in a subwatershed, and a stream network model for integration of point and nonpoint sources in the routing process. The model performance was evaluated using monitoring data in the watershed of the Patuxent River, a tributary to the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland, from July 1997 through August 1999. Despite its simplicity, the landscape model predictions of streamflow, and sediment and nutrient loads were as good as or better than those of the Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran model, one of the most widely used comprehensive watershed models. The landscape model was applied to predict discharges of water, sediment, silicate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium, organic nitrogen, total nitrogen, organic phosphorus, phosphate, and total phosphorus from the Patuxent watershed to its estuary. The predicted annual water discharge to the estuary was very close to the measured annual total in terms of percent errors for both years of the study period (≤2%). The model predictions for loads of nutrients were also good (20‐30%) or very good (<20%) with exceptions of sediment (40%), phosphate (36%), and organic carbon (53%) for Year 1.     

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Sediment Loading and Fish Assemblages in Two Minnesota (USA) Watersheds

We examined the relationship between water quality and fish communities within two agricultural areas using a computer simulation model. Our analyses focused on a coolwater stream, Wells Creek in southeastern Minnesota, and a warmwater stream, the Chippewa River in western Minnesota. We used the Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport (ADAPT) model in relation to land use to calculate instream suspended sediment concentrations using estimates of sediment delivery, runoff, baseflow and streambank erosion, and quantified the effects of suspended sediment exposure on fish communities. We predicted the effects of agricultural practices on stream fish communities under several possible land use scenarios, with reference to current conditions. Land use changes led to reductions in sediment loading of up to 84% in Wells Creek and 49% in the Chippewa River. The reduction in sediment loading across scenarios may be directly related to a reduction in runoff by about 35% in both study areas. We found a 98% decrease in lethal concentrations of suspended sediment on fish in Wells Creek with an increase in conservation tillage, riparian buffers, and permanent vegetative cover. However, the effects of suspended sediment did not significantly decrease in the Chippewa River. This difference between study areas was likely due to differences in tolerance to suspended sediment between coolwater and warmwater fish communities and differences in topography, runoff and bank erosion between the two streams. The Minnesota Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit is jointly sponsored by the US Geological Survey, the University of Minnesota, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, and the Wildlife Management Institute.     

The Ability of Urban Residential Lawns to Disconnect Impervious Area from Municipal Sewer Systems1

Abstract: Runoff from urban catchments depends largely on the amount of impervious surface and the connectivity of these surfaces to the storm sewer drainage system. In residential areas, pervious lawns can be used to help manage stormwater runoff by intercepting and infiltrating runoff from impervious surfaces. The goal of this research was to develop and evaluate a simple method for estimating the reduction in stormwater runoff that results when runoff from an impervious surface (e.g., rooftop) is directed onto a pervious surface (e.g., lawn). Fifty‐two stormwater runoff reduction tests were conducted on six residential lawns in Madison, Wisconsin during the summer of 2004. An infiltration‐loss model that requires inputs of steady‐state infiltration rate, abstraction (defined here as surface storage, vegetation interception and cumulative total infiltration minus steady‐state infiltration during the period prior to steady‐state), and inundated area was evaluated using experimental data. The most accurate results were obtained using the observed steady‐state infiltration rates and inundated areas for each test, combined with a constant abstraction for all tests [root mean squared (RMS) difference = 1.0 cm]. A second case utilized lawn‐averaged steady‐state infiltration rates, a regression estimate of inundated area based on flow‐path length, and lawn‐specific abstractions based on infiltration rate (RMS difference = 2.2 cm). In practice, infiltration rates will likely be determined using double‐ring infiltration measurements (RMS difference = 3.1 cm) or soil texture (RMS difference = 5.7 cm). A generalized form of the model is presented and used to estimate annual stormwater runoff volume reductions for Madison. Results indicate the usefulness of urban lawns as a stormwater management practice and could be used to improve urban runoff models that incorporate indirectly connected impervious areas.     

Simulation of Combined Best Management Practices and Low Impact Development for Sustainable Stormwater Management1

Damodaram, Chandana, Marcio H. Giacomoni, C. Prakash Khedun, Hillary Holmes, Andrea Ryan, William Saour, and Emily M. Zechman, 2010. Simulation of Combined Best Management Practices and Low Impact Development for Sustainable Stormwater Management. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00462.x Abstract: Urbanization causes increased stormwater runoff volumes, leading to erosion, flooding, and the degradation of instream ecosystem health. Although Best Management Practices (BMPs) are used widely as a means for controlling flood runoff events, Low Impact Development (LID) options have been proposed as an alternative approach to better mimic the natural flow regime by using decentralized designs to control stormwater runoff at the source, rather than at a centralized location in the watershed. For highly urbanized areas, LID practices such as rainwater harvesting, green roofs, and permeable pavements can be used to retrofit existing infrastructure and reduce runoff volumes and peak flows. This paper describes a modeling approach to incorporate these LID practices in an existing hydrologic model to estimate the effects of LID choices on streamflow. The modeling approach has been applied to a watershed located on the campus of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas, to predict the stormwater reductions resulting from retrofitting existing infrastructure with LID technologies. Results demonstrate that use of these LID practices yield significant stormwater control for small events and less control for flood events. A combined BMP-LID approach is tested for runoff control for both flood and frequent rainfall events.     

AN INTEGRATED ONE‐DIMENSIONAL AND TWO‐DIMENSIONAL URBAN STORMWATER FLOOD SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Flash flooding is the rapid flooding of low lying areas caused by the stormwater of intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms. Flash flooding occurs in many urban areas with relatively flat terrain and can result in severe property damage as well as the loss of lives. In this paper, an integrated one‐dimensional (1‐D) and two‐dimensional (2‐D) hydraulic simulation model has been established to simulate stormwater flooding processes in urban areas. With rainfall input, the model simulates 2‐D overland flow and 1‐D flow in underground stormwater pipes and drainage channels. Drainage channels are treated as special flow paths and arranged along one or more sides of a 2‐D computational grid. By using irregular computation grids, the model simulates unsteady flooding and drying processes over urban areas with complex drainage systems. The model results can provide spatial flood risk information (e.g., water depth, inundation time and flow velocity during flooding). The model was applied to the City of Beaumont, Texas, and validated with the recorded rainfall and runoff data from Tropical Storm Allison with good agreement.     

MANAGEMENT OF FLOOD CONTROL SUMPS AND POLLUTANT TRANSPORT1

ABSTRACT: Levee sump systems are used by many riverine communities for temporary storage of urban wet weather flows. The hydrologic performance and transport of stormwater pollutants in sump systems, however, have not been systematically studied. The objective of this paper is to present a case study to demonstrate development and application of a procedure for assessing the hydraulic performance of flood control sumps in an urban watershed. Two sumps of highly variable physical and hydraulic characteristics were selected for analysis. A hydrologic modeling package was used to estimate the flow hydrograph for each outfall as part of the flow balance for the sump. To validate these results, a water balance was used to estimate the total runoff using sump operational data. The hydrologic model calculations provide a satisfactory estimate of the total runoff and its time‐distribution to the sump. The model was then used to estimate pollutant loads to the sump and to the river. Although flow of stormwater through a sump system is regulated solely by flood‐control requirements, these sumps may function as sedimentation basins that provide purification of stormwater. A sample calculation of removals of several conventional pollutants in the target sumps using a mass balance approach is presented.     

Simulation of Temperature Mitigation by a Stormwater Detention Pond1

Abstract: A numerical model has been developed to simulate the hydraulic and heat transfer properties of a stormwater detention pond, as part of a simulation tool to evaluate thermal pollution of coldwater streams from stormwater runoff. The model is dynamic (unsteady) and based on principles of fluid mechanics and heat transfer. It is driven by hourly weather data, and specified inflow rates and temperatures. To calibrate and validate the pond model field data were collected on a commercial site in Woodbury, Minnesota. The relationship between pond inflow and outflow rates to precipitation was effectively calibrated using continuously recorded pond levels. Algorithms developed for surface heat transfer in lakes were found to be applicable to the pond with some modification, resulting in agreement of simulated and observed pond surface temperature within 1.0°C root mean square error. The use of an unshaded pond for thermal mitigation of runoff from paved surfaces was evaluated using the pond model combined with simulated runoff from an asphalt parking lot for six years of observed rainfall events. On average, pond outflow temperature was 1.2°C higher than inflow temperature, but with significant event‐to‐event variation. On average, the pond added heat energy to runoff from an asphalt parking lot. Although the pond added total heat energy to runoff, it did reduce the rate of heat outflow from the pond by an order of magnitude due to reductions in volumetric outflow rate compared with the inflow rate. By reducing the rate of heat flow, the magnitude of temperature impacts in a receiving stream were also reduced, but the duration of impacts was increased.     

Hot,Salty Water: A Confluence of Issues in Managing Stormwater Runoff for Urban Streams

Research increasingly highlights cause and effect relationships between urbanization and stream conditions are complex and highly variable across physical and biological regions. Research also demonstrates stormwater runoff is a key causal agent in altering stream conditions in urban settings. More specifically, thermal pollution and high salt levels are two consequences of urbanization and subsequent runoff. This study describes a demonstration model populated with data from a high gradient headwaters stream. The model was designed to explain surface water‐groundwater dynamics related to salinity and thermal pollution. Modeled scenarios show long‐term additive impacts from salt application and suggest reducing flow rates, as stormwater management practices are typically designed to do, have the potential to greatly reduce salt concentrations and simultaneously reduce thermal pollution. This demonstration model offers planners and managers reason to be confident that stormwater management efforts can have positive impacts.     

Modeling Hydrologic Benefits of Low Impact Development: A Distributed Hydrologic Model of The Woodlands,Texas

Low Impact Development (LID) is alternative design approach to land development that conserves and utilizes natural resources to minimize the potential negative environmental impacts of development, such as flooding. The Woodlands near Houston, Texas is one of the premier master‐planned communities in the United States. Unlike in a typical urban development where riparian corridors are often replaced with concrete channels, pervious surfaces, vegetation, and natural drainage pathways were preserved as much as possible during development. In addition, a number of detention ponds were strategically located to manage runoff on site. This article uses a unique distributed hydrologic model, Vflo?, combined with historical (1974) and recent (2008 and 2009) rainfall events to evaluate the long‐term effectiveness of The Woodlands natural drainage design as a stormwater management technique. This study analyzed the influence of LID in The Woodlands by comparing the hydrologic response of the watershed under undeveloped, developed, and highly urbanized conditions. The results show that The Woodlands drainage design successfully reflects predeveloped hydrologic conditions and produces peak flows two to three times lower than highly urbanized development. Furthermore, results indicate that the LID practices employed in The Woodlands successfully attenuate the peak flow from a 100‐year design event, resulting in flows comparable to undeveloped hydrologic conditions.     

Evaluating agricultural best management practices in tile-drained subwatersheds of the Mackinaw River, Illinois

Best management practices (BMPs) are widely promoted in agricultural watersheds as a means of improving water quality and ameliorating altered hydrology. We used a paired watershed approach to evaluate whether focused outreach could increase BMP implementation rates and whether BMPs could induce watershed-scale (4000 ha) changes in nutrients, suspended sediment concentrations, or hydrology in an agricultural watershed in central Illinois. Land use was >90% row crop agriculture with extensive subsurface tile drainage. Outreach successfully increased BMP implementation rates for grassed waterways, stream buffers, and strip-tillage within the treatment watershed, which are designed to reduce surface runoff and soil erosion. No significant changes in nitrate-nitrogen (NO-N), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved reactive phosphorus, total suspended sediment (TSS), or hydrology were observed after implementation of these BMPs over 7 yr of monitoring. Annual NO-N export (39-299 Mg) in the two watersheds was equally exported during baseflow and stormflow. Mean annual TP export was similar between the watersheds (3.8 Mg) and was greater for TSS in the treatment (1626 ± 497 Mg) than in the reference (940 ± 327 Mg) watershed. Export of TP and TSS was primarily due to stormflow (>85%). Results suggest that the BMPs established during this study were not adequate to override nutrient export from subsurface drainage tiles. Conservation planning in tile-drained agricultural watersheds will require a combination of surface-water BMPs and conservation practices that intercept and retain subsurface agricultural runoff. Our study emphasizes the need to measure conservation outcomes and not just implementation rates of conservation practices.     

SIMULATING HYDROLOGIC AND WATER QUALITY IMPACTS IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrologic Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) was calibrated and used to assess the future effects of various land development scenarios on water quality in the Polecat Creek watershed in Caroline County, Virginia. Model parameters related to hydrology and water quality were calibrated and validated using observed stream flow and water quality data collected at the watershed outlet and the outlets of two sub water sheds. Using the county's Comprehensive Plan, land use scenarios were developed by taking into account the trends and spatial distributions of future development. The simulation results for the various land use scenarios indicate that runoff volume and peak rate increased as urban areas increased. Urbanization also increased sediment loads mainly due to increases in channel erosion. Constituent loads of total Kjeldal nitrogen, orthophosphorus, and total phosphorous for Polecat Creek watershed slightly decreased under future development scenarios. These reductions are due to increases in urban areas that typically contribute smaller quantities of nitrogen and phosphorous, as compared to agricultural areas. However, nitrate loads increased for the future land use scenarios, as compared to the existing land use. The increases in nitrate loads may result from increases in residential land and associated fertilizer use and concurrent decreases in forested land. The procedures used in this paper could assist local, state, and regional policy makers in developing land management strategies that minimize environmental impacts while allowing for future development.