中国2020年碳减排目标下若干关键经济指标研究

《国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要》将能源消耗强度和CO2排放强度作为约束性指标。实现2020年单位GDP碳排放强度下降40-45%的自主减排目标是中国今后发展的战略性任务。"十一五"期间,中国以能源消费年均6.6%的增速支撑了国民经济年均11.2%的增长,累计节能量达到6.3亿t标煤,CO2减排量达到14.6亿t,为全球应对气候变化做出了积极贡献。但单位GDP的能耗强度和碳强度下降与温室气体排放总量的上升还将是中国当前和未来很长时期温室气体排放的主要特征。根据历史数据分析,GDP增长、经济结构、产业结构、能源结构等都会对中国的碳减排产生重要影响。GDP增速高必然呈现高能耗、高排放的特征。经济结构方面,影响能耗和碳排放的是GDP(最终需求)的组成变化,即消费、投资和净出口的变化。由于第二产业在国民经济中所占的较大比重以及重化工产业长期存在,除了继续依靠技术进步提高能源使用效率外,必须重视产业结构调整对降低碳排放强度的贡献。能源结构对节能和碳减排的影响集中体现在资源禀赋不平衡、供需分布不平衡、消费种类不平衡。文章提出实现碳减排目标,必须控制和达到以下关键指标:控制GDP增速在6-8%之间;调整出口结构,提升服务贸易比重至30%左右;提高第三产业比例至47%以上,控制高能耗工业比重在22%以下;提高非化石能源比重至15%。此外,实现碳减排目标还必须:充分认识碳减排对转方式、调结构的重要意义;切实加强对不同区域碳减排工作的分类指导;提前部署重大低碳技术和重点领域技术研发;大力倡导绿色低碳消费和生活方式等。研究表明,中国实现2020年CO2自主减排目标还需付出更大的努力。     

中国碳排放与经济增长的协整与因果关系分析

中国碳排放与经济增长的关系是目前热点问题。研究碳排放与经济增长关系有助于实现中国2020年碳减排目标。选取1953～2008年中国碳排放量和经济增长数据，运用协整和误差修正模型及Granger因果关系，研究碳排放与经济增长关系。研究结果表明：从长期来看，碳排放与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系(协整关系)，GDP增加1%，碳排放将增加036%，即碳排放对经济增长的长期弹性为036；在短期内，两者存在着动态调整机制，非均衡误差项的存在，保证了两者之间长期均衡关系的存在。误差修正系数(-0669 4)为负，调整方向符合误差修正机制，并且误差修正模型的拟合效果比较理想。Granger因果关系研究表明：总体来说，碳排放与经济增长之间互为双向因果关系。针对研究结果，提出了“发展低碳经济、提高能源效率和发展非化石能源”的策略，减少能源消费和降低碳排放，实现碳排放与经济增长的相对脱钩     

中国碳排放分解与动态模拟

随着我国经济的飞速发展,能源过度消耗引起的环境问题日益严重,二氧化碳排放量的增加导致的温室效应成为我国乃至国际广泛关注的焦点。我国在2007年超过美国成为世界第一大碳排放国,根据哥本哈根气候谈判会议对发展中国家承担减排义务的要求,我国作出2020年相较2005年单位GDP二氧化碳排放量下降40%-45%的减排目标承诺。本文基于这一减排目标在对我国终端能源利用碳排放情况进行分析对比基础上,应用LMDI分解模型将碳排放增量变化分解为经济规模、产业结构等四个效应,根据分解结果运用协整方法建立碳排放量与经济发展等四个变量的长期均衡协整关系模型,基于协整方程采用蒙特卡洛动态模拟方法模拟了我国2020年碳排放情况。研究结果为:LMDI分解表明经济规模是我国碳排放增长的主导因素,技术进步对碳排放产生明显的负效应,产业结构与能源结构的影响相对有限;协整模型表明GDP、煤炭消费比重、能源强度与碳排放正相关,第三产业比重与碳排放负相关,符合经济意义;蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示按照目前的发展方式2020年我国单位GDP二氧化碳排放相较2005年下降约36%-39%,与我国提出的下降40%-45%减排承诺目标十分接近,但下降幅度并不理想,表明按照目前的发展路径、节能降耗水平和能源利用技术,我国距离完成哥本哈根年会所确定的减排目标还有一定距离,为完成减排目标还需加大节能减排力度。最后文章从优化产业结构、提高能源效率、优化能源结构、运用法律手段限制排放和加强节能减排宣传等四方面提出对策建议,为我国完成"十二五"和2020年减排目标提供借鉴。     

中美两国2020年后减排目标比较

针对中美气候变化联合声明中公布的各自2020年后减排目标,本文通过情景分析的方法,测算了中美两国实现各自目标所需要采取的行动和努力,比较了两国在GDP碳排放强度下降、新能源和可再生能源发展规模、CO2排放达峰时间及其所处发展阶段、以及电力部门减排四个方面的努力程度和效果。通过比较可以看到,在中美两国分别实现各自既定目标的情况下,中国单位GDP碳强度年下降率将达4%,其幅度高于美国在2025年减排28%目标下的年下降率(3.59%);中国的新能源和可再生能源发展也更为迅速,年均增速高达约8%,2030年非化石能源总供应量可达11.6亿tce,约为届时美国非化石能源总供应量的2倍;在CO2排放达峰值方面,中国实现CO2排放峰值时所处的发展阶段要早于美国达峰值时的经济社会发展阶段,中国在强化低碳发展情景目标下可在2030年左右实现碳排放达峰值,且峰值时人均CO2排放约8 t水平,低于美国CO2排放峰值时的人均排放19.5 t的水平;在电力部门的减排努力方面,中国在未来比较高的电力需求背景下,2030年可实现比2011年单位千瓦时的CO2强度下降35%,而美国同期则只需下降约20%即可实现其电力部门的减排目标。上述几项指标的比较更可突显中国2020年后的减排目标是非常宏伟且极具挑战的。在实现2030年减排目标的行动中,中国政府还需要进一步强化和细化新能源和可再生能源的发展目标,进一步分解和落实全国及各省市的减排目标和减排行动,持续推进节能与加强新能源技术的创新,在经济高速发展的同时协调好经济、能源和环境的问题,早日实现低碳发展和生态文明。     

山东省能源消费与碳排放分析

利用山东省统计年鉴数据和联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)公布的碳排放计算公式和碳排放系数,对山东省2001-2010年的能源消费和碳排放情况进行分析。结果表明:山东省一次能源消费由2001年的11 649.88万t标准煤增长到2010年36 357.25万t标准煤,年均增长12.05%;碳排放量由2001年12 308.17万t增长到2010年30 881.45万t,年均增长9.64%,由煤炭引起的碳排放量占73.09%;碳排放强度呈下降趋势,由2001年的1.21 t/万元下降到2010年0.78 t/万元,年均下降4.23%。针对山东省能源消费与碳排放现状,提出了相关建议。应大力发展低碳经济,改变高耗能的发展方式,积极促进山东省产业结构调整和升级,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

小康社会目标下的居民生活能源需求预测

从居民的基本需求着手,运用混合能源投入产出模型,预测我国在2020年全面实现小康社会条件下,由居民最终消费引起的能源直接和间接需求。结果表明,2020年我国由居民衣食住行等基本生活需求所产生的一次能源总需求将在2002年的基础上增加14.2亿t标煤;其中间接需求占86%。从能源需求结构来看,煤炭的增长速度最低,但仍然占一次能源60%以上;石油和一次电力需求增长较快,石油需求全部来自于经济系统的中间消耗,而电力需求中40%来自于直接生活能源消费。在能源效率和经济结构不变的条件下,这意味着2020年我国的一次能源需求将至少达到29.40亿t标煤,排放二氧化碳约66.55亿t。上述结果仅考虑了居民部门的最终消费;如果考虑累计资本形成和净出口贸易增长的影响,能源消费和碳排放值会更高。因此,提高能源利用效率,引导居民合理节约的消费行为,是我国可持续发展目标下的必然要求。     

中国能源开采业碳排放脱钩效应情景模拟

厘清能源开采中的碳脱钩问题,对于推动能源绿色开采和能源富集区高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于广义迪氏指数分解模型和系统动力学模型,分析了能源开采业碳排放的主要驱动因素及脱钩效应,并通过情景模拟,评估了中国能源开采业碳脱钩的潜力,提出了能源绿色开采的政策建议。研究结果表明:①2009—2017年中国能源开采业碳排放呈现出先增后降趋势,2012年达到拐点5.26亿t后开始下降,2017年达3.65亿t。整体来看,产业规模效应对碳排放增长的贡献最大,能源强度效应也有部分贡献;投资效应、能耗效应、碳强度效应、技术效应与碳排放之间呈正相关关系,是主要的碳减排驱动因素。②基于能源-环境-经济的系统动力模型,能有效解释能源开采与碳脱钩效应之间的传导机理;碳强度效应、技术效应和碳排放因子是影响碳脱钩潜力的主要因素。2006—2017年间,中国能源开采业碳排放与GDP增长之间,除2008、2014—2016年表现为强脱钩,2009、2011年表现为扩张性负脱钩外,其余年份均表现为弱脱钩关系。③预计2020—2030年,中国煤炭、石油和天然气开采业碳排放与GDP增长之间,在基准情景下呈现出弱脱钩效应,在规划情景下自2014—2030年间均呈现出强脱钩效应;然而,碳排放与其能源产出之间,2021—2030年在基准情景下呈现扩张连接效应,在规划情景和对比情景下表现出程度不一的衰退脱钩效应。据此,未来中国能源开采业碳脱钩的政策重点,一方面应注重环境政策、税收政策、技术政策等政策变量间的协同作用,着力调整煤炭和石油天然气开采业的投资强度和产出规模,优化能源进口结构,进一步减少能源生产碳排放强度,提升能源绿色生产水平;另一方面,还应着力能源开采业能源消耗结构和能耗强度的调整,革新采掘技术和设备,以进一步降低碳强度,走高质量发展之路。     

武汉市能源消费碳排放因素分解与低碳发展研究

本文以2010—2015年武汉市三次产业和居民生活能耗碳排放数据为基础,运用LMDI模型从人口规模、经济水平、三次产业结构、能耗强度、能源结构、碳排放系数六个方面对武汉市能源消费的碳排放进行因素分解。分解结果表明,人口扩张和经济增长是促进武汉市碳排放增长的主要因素,贡献率为38.7%和198.52%;能耗强度降低、能源结构优化和能源碳排放系数变化是抑制武汉市碳排放增长的主要因素,贡献率为-99.14%、-24.22%和-14.13%。经分析发现,人口扩张和经济增长在未来一段时间内将继续成为促进武汉市碳排放增长的最大贡献点;产业结构调整在经过2012-2013年间出现的碳排放效应促进-抑制转折点后将逐步成为抑制武汉市碳排放增长的重要影响因素;在继续保持第二产业能耗强度下降的同时,加大对第三产业能耗强度控制力度是武汉市现阶段碳排放控制工作的重点方向。     

中国经济发展与能源消费及碳排放解耦分析

随着经济快速发展,我国的能源供给和生态环境面临着双重压力,为实现经济与环境双赢,应使经济增长与能源消费及二氧化碳排放之间的耦合关系"解耦",走出一条绿色、低碳的可持续发展道路。我国经济增长与能源消费、能源消费与二氧化碳排放的解耦具有重要的现实意义,既是建设"两型社会"的要求也是科学发展的必然选择,更是实现"生态文明"和"美丽中国"的主要途径。本文在研究发达国家经济发展与能源消费、能源消费与二氧化碳排放解耦规律的基础上,回顾了我国过往30多年的经济发展、能源消费和二氧化碳排放历程,提出我国未来发展的三种情景假设,即惯性情景、低碳情景和2度情景。研究认为,惯性情景是一种高碳发展情景,既不可能实现也不允许发生;2度情景的实现有较大难度,是进一步努力的方向;我国应按照低碳情景模式发展。我国未来能源发展路径应在科学供给满足合理需求前提下,按照科学产能实施国内能源生产,加强能源消费总量控制,特别是煤和石油等高碳化石能源使用量,改善能源消费结构。能源生产要低碳、清洁,能源消费要节能优先、绿色高效。降低单位GDP能源消费量,控制人均能源消费量增长;降低单位能源消费产生的温室气体量,控制人均排放量。如按假设的低碳情景发展,中国发展进入新常态,GDP预期增速虽有所下降,但经济总量仍保持良好增长态势,2020年后我国经济增长与能源消费开始呈现逐步解耦的趋势,中国煤炭和石油消费量在2030年前达到峰值,我国经济增长与高碳能源(煤炭和石油)消费将在2030年前解耦;至2050年,我国能源消费趋于饱和,增量接近零,而经济总量继续增长,中国经济发展与能源消费接近绝对解耦;中国二氧化碳排放峰值将于2030年(或之前)到达,能源消费与二氧化碳排放在2030年(或之前)实现绝对解耦。     

中国煤炭利用效率评价及与经济增长脱钩分析

绿色发展逐渐成为世界各国解决资源环境多重挑战的共识方案。我国绿色发展的关键在于能源的绿色发展问题,提高能源利用效率是推动我国能源绿色发展的有效途径。煤炭是我国最重要的基础能源,以煤炭为代表的化石能源作为我国能源的主体地位短期内还难以改变,因此,提高煤炭利用效率对提高能源利用效率意义重大。针对当前煤炭资源利用效率测度存在的问题,选取各地区每年煤炭消费量作为衡量能源投入的指标,第二产业从业人员作为人力投入,能源工业固定资产投资与煤炭采选业固定资产投资之和作为资本投入,第二产业增加值作为期望产出,煤炭资源碳排放量作为非期望产出,构建了包含非期望产出的SBM模型,对2000-2012年间我国30个省级行政区进行煤炭资源利用效率评价,研究表明:样本期内,我国煤炭资源利用效率总体水平不高,平均效率值仅为0.269;四大区域按照煤炭利用效率均值高低排序依次为东部地区、东北地区、中部地区和西部地区,且中、西部地区低于全国平均水平,未来重点提升这类地区煤炭资源利用效率是提高全国整体效率的关键所在。近年来,我国年均GDP增速远大于能源强度的下降速度,能源消耗与经济增长的脱钩关系成为研究热点,但对于能源效率与经济发展的"挂钩"问题则未引起足够重视,只有在实现能源消耗与经济增长脱钩的同时也要让经济发展与能源利用效率不脱钩,才能切实提高经济增长质量。基于上述认知引入脱钩理论,分别用煤炭消费和煤炭利用效率的GDP弹性系数来分析我国及各地区煤炭消费、煤炭利用效率与经济增长的脱钩关系,研究表明:国家在控制能源消费总量上取得一定成效,但限于当前产业结构现状,技术和管理水平,煤炭资源利用效率提升有限;我国及大部分地区的煤炭消费、煤炭利用效率与经济增长已由绝对挂钩转变为绝对脱钩状态,并且地区间脱钩程度的差距呈现逐渐缩小的趋势。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.