能源结构调整与雾霾治理的最优政策选择

本文通过建立中国动态可计算一般均衡模型,以《大气污染防治行动计划》所设立的空气质量控制目标为基础设置情景,对中国能源结构调整、技术进步(能效提高与清洁技术进步)与雾霾治理的政策组合进行模拟研究。实证研究结果表明,推进能源结构调整与技术进步才是治理雾霾的根本手段。具体而言,在加快能源清洁技术进步、提高能源利用效率的基础上并以硫税或碳税为工具降低能源强度,从而降低以PM2.5(可入肺颗粒物)和PM10(可吸入颗粒物)为主要构成的雾霾污染。在治理雾霾的同时,该政策组合还可带来一些协同效益。首先,该政策组合能有效地改善我国长期以来以煤炭为主的能源消费结构,大幅降低煤炭在一次能源消费中的占比。其次,在该政策组合下,各行业实施相同的硫税和碳税税率,各行业因能耗量不同而承担不同的税负。结果是重工业被遏制,第三产业得到鼓励,从而优化我国以高耗能、高污染的重工业为主的产业结构。并且硫税在调节能源结构方面比碳税效果明显,但对经济的负面影响也比碳税大。加快能源清洁技术发展、征收污染税是雾霾治理的有效手段。虽然实施上述税收会在一定阶段一定程度上抑制经济增长,但加快能源清洁技术进步不会对经济产生负面影响。如果没有其他政策配合,单独提高能源利用效率会由于降低能源使用成本而增加能源消费,进而加剧大气污染。因此,必须应用多种政策组合才能实现雾霾治理和经济发展的双重目标。我们给出了实现上述双重目标的最优政策选择。     

长江经济带碳减排潜力与低碳发展策略

为长江经济带低碳发展需要,借助长江经济带11省市2005～2014年间相关数据,对长江经济带及区域间的碳排放、能源强度、碳吸收进行测算,并探讨长江经济带未来低碳发展策略,分析 “高碳情景”与“低碳情景”下2030年各区域的碳减排潜力。研究发现：长江经济带碳排放聚集度较高且整体增速趋缓。东部区域碳排放均值最大,西部区域最小。中部区域碳排放增速最快,东部区域最慢。西部区域能源强度最高,东部区域最低;但中部区域能源强度降幅最大,东部区域降幅最小。西部区域碳汇能力最强,东部区域最弱。基于以上发现,从碳减排责任划分、低碳消费、清洁能源替代、高耗能产业优化以及区域生态质量提升等方面提出相关策略,力图实现碳源面的直接碳减排与碳汇面的相对碳减排。最后,经预测可知：2030年,长江经济带“低碳情景”比“高碳情景”减少碳排放约12亿t,中部区域将成为碳排放主要来源地     

不同返还情景下碳税对中国经济影响及减排效果——基于动态CGE的模拟分析

本文构建了多部门递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,考虑中国经济发展和碳减排的现实情况,以征收40元/吨碳税且无税收返还为基准情景,分析了碳税对中国经济和碳强度的影响;在此基础上,本文探讨六种税收返还情景(返还清洁能源部门部分碳税、返还服务业部分碳税、返还农村和城镇居民全部碳税、减免企业所得税、减免居民所得税、减免生产税)对碳税负效应的缓解作用,同时探讨税收返还政策下碳税对中国经济增长、社会福利、农村和城镇居民收入消费、各部门产出的影响差异,并从实现2020年和2030年减排目标的角度,比较不同返还情景下碳税对碳排放量、碳强度,以及对非化石能源占一次能源消费结构变化的长期影响。研究结果表明:基准情景下,碳税对经济确实存在负效应;六种返还政策均不同程度地降低碳税负效应,同时也能够保证实现2020年的减排目标且有利于实现2030年的目标;对单一部门(清洁能源部门或服务业)部分返还碳税能够促进相应部门的产出,但力度较小,与其他政策相比影响微弱,但都能够有效地促进这两大部门的发展,因此在制定补贴政策时应当考虑行业差异性,重点扶持符合绿色发展要求的行业;对农村和城镇居民的直接返还均能增加农村和城镇居民收入,刺激了消费进而带动社会经济发展,相比部门返还政策,这一政策更为有效的提高了社会福利,但也会进一步拉大农村与城镇居民之间的收入消费差距;减免企业所得税促进企业投资和产业结构调整;减免居民所得税极大的刺激居民消费;减免生产税促进进口、拉动就业率,降低化石能源部门产出,综合来看,相对于其他返还政策,减免生产税更有效可行。     

武汉市钢铁行业碳减排潜力及成本分析

本文基于LEAP模型,针对基准情景、能效改进情景、能源结构变化情景,建立2010-2030年武汉市钢铁行业碳减排潜力和减排成本分析模型。研究发现,相对基准情景,2030年能效改进情景和能源结构变化情景下武汉市钢铁行业碳减排潜力分别为189万t和507万t,单位减排成本分别为-145.9元/t CO_2和813.1元/t CO_2,因此,能效改进是目前武汉市钢铁行业最经济可行的碳减排路径。基于具体技术实施情景成本分析,未来武汉市钢铁行业依次推广干式TRT、煤调湿技术、焦化荒煤气回收、转炉煤气干法回收和高炉鼓风除湿技术,可实现碳减排94万t,其投资成本约为15亿元。     

生态文明建设视角下征收环境税对河北省的宏观经济影响

河北省的环境状况在整个京津冀生态文明建设中具有举足轻重的作用,而环境税则是生态文明建设的一个重要政策工具。为了研究征收环境税对河北省的宏观经济影响,本文构建了河北省动态CGE模型,利用其2010年投入产出表编制了相应的社会核算矩阵,根据现有最新政策文件设置基准情景,重点模拟了征收单一碳税和碳税、硫税组合对经济发展以及污染气体排放的影响。结果表明,征收碳税的同时有必要辅之以硫税,碳税、硫税的实施可以大幅降低污染气体的排放,抑制能源消费,有利于能源产业结构转变,总体上对经济增长的长期负面影响不大。     

征收差异化行业碳税对中国经济与环境的影响

碳税是应对气候变化的重要环境经济手段。该研究从征收差异化行业碳税的角度出发,探讨对四类行业分别征收120元/t、100元/t、80元/t和60元/t碳税税率的经济与环境影响,并将碳税返还企业和返还居民等两类情景考虑其中,结果显示:(1)征收行业差异化碳税会对宏观经济产生一定的负向冲击。在无税收返还情景下,2030年我国的GDP相比基准情景下降1.1%,固定资本投资下降1.36%,居民消费下降0.90%,而贸易状况得到一定改善,征收差异化行业碳税短期内能增加我国的贸易顺差,但长期则会引起出口下降、进口减少。(2)碳税返还能减少宏观经济的负面影响。返还企业情景下2030年的固定资本投资增加1.89%,家庭消费增加0.62%,进口增加2.53%。(3)行业差异化的碳税税率对产业部门的影响差异明显。2030年,被征收100元/t的煤炭开采、水泥行业的产出分别下降7.72%和1.72%,被征收120元/t的火电行业产出下降3.72%,但如果碳税收入返还企业时,2030年的火电行业可减少无返还情景下0.28%的经济损失。(4)差异化行业碳税有利于推动CO_2减排。在无返还情景下,我国2030年的CO_2排放总量下降5.68%,煤炭采选、钢压延、火电、炼焦部门的减排效果最明显,同期分别下降14.7%、9.01%、9.12%和7.17%。因此,应在"十四五"期间研究开征碳税,将碳税纳入环境保护税的征税范围,在碳税征收体系逐渐健全的基础上,制定分行业的差异化碳税税率方案,高税率应用于能耗大、排放大行业,中低税率应用于能耗与排放相对较小的行业,并综合运用降低企业所得税和居民所得税、增加补贴等政策手段,减少征收碳税带来的经济损失,形成与征收碳税相配套的长效机制。     

能源活动碳排放核算与减排政策选择

应对气候变化的科学基础是摸清区域碳排放基本状况,对碳排放现状的梳理是探索环境改善路径的依据。探索低碳发展路径的核心在于减排政策选择,同时也是实现可持续发展的条件保障。京津冀协同发展背景下区域环境保护及大气污染治理成为研究热点,河北省资源环境容量与经济增长之间的矛盾日益凸显,生态文明、可持续发展的要求促使探明环境现状,研究节能减排低碳发展的创新机制。摸清河北省碳排放基本现状,探明能源需求和碳排放的演变规律,对河北省探索低碳发展路径具有实践意义。本文基于河北省全域的数据资料和实地调查,核算了河北省下辖11个地级市能源活动引起的碳排放,分析了2005-2013年碳排放的时空演化规律,以情景分析方法为基础,预测了河北省到2030年的碳排放状况。认为:第一,能源活动的碳排放量从研究时间尺度上来看,始终保持增长的趋势,且2009年以后增长更为显著;从空间尺度上来看,唐山市的排放始终是全省最高。第二,基于情景分析对河北省能源活动的碳排放可能状况进行预测。基准情景是排放量最高的情景;低碳情景下2025年前后碳排放量基本稳定;强化低碳情景下设定2030年回到2005年的排放水平上,人均碳排放量始终保持下降,2030年将与全国2012年的人均排放平均水平相当。     

不同能源政策下苏浙沪能源消费碳排放高峰估计

中国要实现2030年左右达到CO2排放峰值目标,最终要落实到区域层面上。长三角地区作为中国经济的领头羊,其节能减排政策制定对其它省区具有示范作用。基于经济平稳增长模型对江苏省、浙江省和上海市未来的能源消费碳排放量进行了估计,并模拟了不同能源政策情景对能源消费碳排放的影响。研究表明:(1)基准情景下,江苏省、浙江省和上海市的能源消费碳排放高峰分别出现在2034年、2033年和2032年。(2)不同的能源政策对碳高峰的影响不同。能源结构调整情景和能源效率提高情景下,江苏省、浙江省和上海市的能源消费碳排放高峰都能提前到2030年以前,完成2030年碳排放达到峰值的目标。综合能源政策情景模拟结果显示,同时调整能源结构和提高能源效率,碳减排效果更加明显。     

可再生能源电价补贴的大气环境效益分析

可再生能源的电价补贴是一项旨在加速推进可再生能源广泛应用的政策机制,对中国能源结构调整(降低煤电比例)、改善大气环境具有重要的现实意义。鉴此,本文将可再生能源发电带来的空气污染物(CO_2、SO_2、NO_X和PM_(2.5))排放的减少作为衡量大气环境质量改善的效益指标,利用2012年中国投入产出表建立包含温室气体、污染气体和颗粒物模块的可计算一般均衡模型,从总量和行业的视角量化研究了实施可再生能源电价补贴政策对改善大气环境的积极作用,考察了可再生能源发电补贴辅以硫税、硫税及碳税这两种冲击的情景。研究表明:可再生能源电价补贴减少了温室气体、污染气体的总排放量和颗粒物浓度,在补贴的基础上辅以硫税不仅可以有效地增进大气环境福利效益,而且还能抵消征税对经济增长的负面效应;可再生能源电价补贴使清洁能源发电对火电产生替代效应,各个行业排放的CO_2、SO_2和NO_X均下降;但这一替代效应在工业部门尤其是重工业部门相对有限,这也证明了工业部门的减排压力较于其他产业(农业部门和服务业部门)更大;补贴可促进可再生能源发电量不断提升,进而优化能源结构,这是增进大气环境效益的根本原因。上述结果意味着短期内要提高可再生能源电价附加标准,补贴与税收双管齐下以增强减排力度。而可能面临的可再生能源电价补贴资金不足问题则意味着中期内要实现补贴方式逐渐向定额补贴、绿色证书模式过渡,利用市场机制确定补贴标准;长期内需最终取消补贴政策,倒逼技术进步,推动整个可再生能源产业的可持续发展。     

基于CGE模型的能源税政策影响分析

在能源-环境-经济(3E)研究领域中,CGE模型得到了广泛的应用.本文通过一个10部门静态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型定量分析中国实施能源税对经济、能源、环境以及各生产部门的影响.模型以2002年为基准年,研究设定5个情景,包括一个基准情景和四个能源税征收情景.模型模拟分析表明,征收能源税对国民经济总量增长有轻微影响;与此同时,能源税政策有利于减少能源需求量,降低能源强度,减少煤炭在能源合成品中的份额,对能源结构的改善有一定作用,并可促进产业结构的调整,有利于减少二氧化碳和二氧化硫的排放量,改善环境质量.在实施的过程中,可以采用渐进提高税率,并在征收能源税的同时,降低所得税(用能源税收入替代其它税种的收入)以及减免行政性收费等方式,实现税制的绿化,且可避免对国民经济和居民生活产生明显冲击.     

Cs in a raised bog in central Sweden

The vertical distribution of ¹³⁷Cs activity in peat soil profiles and ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration in plants of various species was studied in samples collected at two sites on a raised bog in central Sweden. One site (open bog) was in an area with no trees and only a few sparsely growing plant species, while the other (low pine) was less than 100 m from the open bog site and had slowly growing Scots pine, a field layer dominated by some ericaceous plants and ground well-covered by plants. The plant samples were collected in 2004–2007 and were compared with samples collected in 1989 from the same open bog and low pine sites. Ground deposition of ¹³⁷Cs in 2005 was similar at both sites, 23?000 Bq m⁻². In the open bog peat profile it seems to be an upward transport of caesium since a clear peak of ¹³⁷Cs activity was found in the uppermost 1–4 cm of Sphagnum layers, whereas at the low pine site ¹³⁷Cs was mainly found in deeper (10–12 cm) layers. The migration rate was 0.57 cm yr⁻¹ at the open bog site and the migration centre of ¹³⁷Cs was at a depth of 10.7, while the rate at the low pine site was 0.78 cm yr⁻¹ and the migration centre was at 14.9 cm. Heather (Calluna vulgaris) was the plant species with the highest ¹³⁷Cs activity concentrations at both sites, 43.5 k Bq⁻¹ DM in 1989 decreasing to 20.4 in 2004–2007 on open bog and 22.3 k Bq kg⁻¹ DM in 1989 decreasing to 11.2 k Bq⁻¹ DM by the period 2004–2007 on the low pine site. ¹³⁷Cs transfer factors in plants varied between 0.88 and 1.35 on the open bog and between 0.48 and 0.69 m² kg⁻¹ DM at the low pine site.     

流域土地利用变化的水质响应研究进展

探讨流域土地利用变化的水质响应,有利于从源头上控制水污染。不同学者在多种边界条件下研究了流域土地利用变化的水质响应,发现流域土地利用变化是造成河流水质发生变化的重要原因。根据是否可以将土地利用活动概化为点状,流域土地利用变化的水质响应研究可分为点状土地利用的水质响应和非点状土地利用的水质响应。准确边界土地利用的水质响应一般是研究流域土地利用空间特征和土地利用结构与水质变化的关系。对于用全流域尺度还是用缓冲区的尺度分析土地利用的水质响应更准确仍存在争论。水域边缘几何形状影响了土地利用与水质的关系。     

Formaldehyde in conventional homes in Taiwan

A survey was conducted in the humid environment of Taipei City during April and May of 1991, to investigate the indoor formaldehyde exposure and its health effects on 117 conventional households. The levels of formaldehyde were measured by the pararosaniline method. The details regarding construction, ventilation, combustion of fuel, burning of Chinese incense, and the complaints concerning the respiratory system were obtained by a questionnaire. The results show that the age of the pressed wood used in furniture and indoor decoration, the ventilation rate, the combustion of fuel, and the burning of Chinese incense significantly affect the levels of formaldehyde. The respiratory complaints found in this study were concluded here to be only partially accounted for by exposure to formaldehyde.     

Present status of Rn in groundwater in Extremadura

Radon-222 was measured in groundwater sources of Extremadura (Spain), analyzing 350 samples from private and public springs, wells, and spas by liquid scintillation counting (LSC) and gamma spectrometry. The ²²²Rn activity concentrations ranged from 0.24 to 1168 Bq L⁻¹. The statistical analysis showed a log-normal distribution with a mean of (111 ± 7) Bq L⁻¹ and a median of (36 ± 3) Bq L⁻¹. A hydrogeological study revealed correlations between the activity concentration and the aquifer material's characteristics. A map of ²²²Rn in groundwater was elaborated and compared with the natural gamma radiation map for this region. About 35% of the samples showed ²²²Rn activity concentrations above the Euratom recommended limit of 100 Bq L⁻¹. Three uranium series radionuclides (²³⁸U, ²³⁴U, and ²²⁶Ra) were also assayed by alpha-particle spectrometry, estimating the annual effective dose due to the presence of these natural radionuclides in drinking water.     

Reuse of mining wastewater in agricultural activities in Jordan

A pilot study was completed in the Al-Abyad area near phosphate mining activity in Jordan. Six plots of 50 m² each were planted with two types of plant species (Zea mays spp. and Medicago lupulina spp.) and irrigated using three types of water (fresh groundwater, mine wastewater, and hydride water consisting of 50% fresh and 50% mine wastewater) to investigate the suitability of utilizing mine wastewater for food production in the area. Water, soil and plant sampling was completed for each plot over different time intervals and analyzed for heavy metal (Cr⁺⁶, Ni⁺², Zn⁺² and Pb⁺²) in addition to major ionic composition of the water used for irrigation. Crop yield was estimated at the end of the experiment. Plots irrigated with mine wastewater showed slightly higher heavy metals concentrations and soil salinity during the experiment period was higher for plots irrigated with mine wastewater compared to plots irrigated with fresh water, and it was uniform through the upper 45 cm of the soil profile due to the high amount of irrigation water used during the experiment. Crop yield was inversely proportional to salinity as an increase of salinity by 2-folds resulted in reducing yield by almost 50%. However, no risk of heavy metals contamination was found in plants and soil. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Evaluation of Urban Sustainability in Specific Sectors in Latvia

In Latvia, the concept of sustainability is only slowly gaining recognition. An analysis of Development Plans prepared by the four largest cities of Latvia indicates that sustainability is presented as one of the guiding principles. However, a comparison of Development Plan policies against the urban sustainability issues reveals a great deal of ambiguity and contradiction.At the municipal level, planners and politicians lack indicators to gauge whether the long-term goals of Development Plans and the principles of sustainable development are being achieved. As a consequence, the broad public is deprived of the opportunity to assess for itself the process of development in relation to Development Plan policies, thus limiting accountability in development decision-making. Relevant statistical data collected on a regular basis are required to create sustainability indicators reflecting sustainability issues, to supplement and replace existing statistical compilations pertaining almost exclusively to economic growth and consumption. Development and utilisation of sustainability indicators can be an effective instrument for promoting the values of sustainable development amongst politicians, planners and the broad public and for enhancing accountability in decision-making.     

Natural radionuclides in bottled water in Austria

Concentration levels of 226Ra, 222Rn and 210Pb were analyzed in domestic bottled waters commercially available in Austria. Concentrations up to 0.23 Bq/l, with a geometric mean of 0.041 Bq/l were found for 226Ra. Concentrations for 222Rn ranged from <0.12-18 Bq/l, the geometric mean being 0.54 Bq/l. Lead-210 was analyzed in selected samples, the concentrations ranging from <2 to 34 mBq/l, with a geometric mean of 4.7 mBq/l. Ingestion doses resulting from consumption of these waters were calculated for the geometric mean and the maximum concentrations of the three radionuclides. The effective dose equivalents for different age groups of the population due to the intake of 226Ra range from 0.001 to 0.22 mSv/y and of 210Pb from 0.0003 to 0.05 mSv/y. Ingestion doses from 222Rn are low compared to those from 226Ra and 210Pb, ranging from 0.0001 to 0.011 mSv/y for adults and children, respectively. The doses are compared to the total ingestion dose from dietary intake of natural radionuclides on an annual basis.     

Precipitation-driven decrease in wildfires in British Columbia

Trends of summer precipitation and summer temperature and their influence on trends in summer drought and area burned in British Columbia (BC) were investigated for the period 1920–2000. The complexity imposed by topography was taken into account by incorporating high spatial resolution climate and fire data. Considerable regional variation in trends and in climate–fire relationships was observed. A weak but significant increase in summer temperature was detected in northeastern and coastal BC, whereas summer precipitation increased significantly in all regions—by up to 45.9 %. A significant decrease in province-wide area burned and at the level of sub-units was strongly related to increasing precipitation, more so than to changing temperature or drought severity. A stronger dependence of area burned on precipitation, a variable difficult to predict, implies that projected changes in future area burned in this region may yield higher uncertainties than in regions where temperature is predominantly the limiting factor for fire activity. We argue that analyses of fire–climate relationships must be undertaken at a sufficiently high resolution such that spatial variability in limiting factors on area burned like precipitation, temperature, and drought is captured within units.