Pricing behaviour and market power in North American non-ferrous metal industries

The paper considers the degree to which declining market power explains modifications in pricing behaviour observed since the late 1970s in the North American aluminium, copper, lead and zinc industries. More precisely, it relates those changes in pricing policies to the price elasticity of demand facing the dominant strategic group in each industry, the cost elasticity of supply and to the management's ability to coordinate or internalize conduct decisions. The results suggest that the firms in the copper and lead industries do not hold as a group any form of market power. In the case of the aluminum industry, a notable increase in the price elasticity of demand since the end of the 1970s, a sustained decrease in the concentration ratio and a rigid production process are weakening the presence of market power in that industry. The results are inconclusive in the case of the zinc industry since the determinants of market power move in opposite directions.     

Cogeneration potential in Indian sugar mills: a case study

The Indian sugar industry has massive potential for the cogeneration of electrical power. The sugar manufacturing process generates bagasse as a byproduct from cane-crushing. This bagasse can be used as a fuel for the boilers employed in steam raising for the process use and cogeneration. In this study, the potential for power cogeneration in a typical plant under the existing boiler-turbine configuration has been estimated. An alternative configuration requiring capital investment in machinery has also been studied. The cost of cogenerating power, including the cost of fuel, operations and capital services wherever necessary, has been calculated for both these cases, using a linear optimisation method. The exercise allows for the use of multiple fuels, namely bagasse and coal, for cogeneration throughout the year including the cane-crushing season and the off-season. The per unit supply price of cogenerated power thus computed has been compared with the utility's own cost with a view to selling the surplus cogenerated power to the grid.     

碳市场和电力市场耦合研究

低碳化、清洁化是我国电力行业未来发展的方向。碳市场启动,电力作为试点行业,碳市场和电力市场面临着协调和融合问题。为研究碳市场和电力市场的耦合关系,本文首先分析了碳市场机制的成本节约效应以及与电力市场改革的互动效应;然后给出考虑碳排放价格的电力市场发电电能成本模型——LCOEe;最后以广东省为例,对广东碳市场碳价传导至电价设定情景并进行模拟分析。结果显示,碳市场和电力市场存在相互制约的关系,碳排放外部成本内部化影响电力市场出清电价,而电力市场能够缓解碳市场的减排压力,抑制碳市场的活跃度。两市场的耦合研究对于优化电源结构、促进新能源市场的发展,以及启发政策制定者重视两大市场的协同发展具有非常重要的现实意义。     

环保处罚事件对“两高”上市公司股价的影响分析

手工搜集的2007—2017年49家"两高"上市公司的67个环保处罚样本,涉及化工、钢铁、煤炭开采等六个行业,采用事件研究法对环保处罚发布前后股票市场的反应进行了实证研究,并估算了每个环保处罚事件给企业带来的市值损失。研究发现,在环保处罚公示当日,股价大幅下跌,带来显著为负的异常收益率,最多的下跌了7.72%,并且这种影响可以持续到次日。从事件日后的第二天开始,这种负面影响不再显著,表现为平均异常收益率不再显著。但其造成的股价下跌是短时间内无法恢复的,因其累积平均异常收益率持续显著为负。在市值损失方面,67家上市公司平均损失了约2.85亿元市值,最多的损失了约48.5亿元,整个样本的总市值损失约为191亿元。     

Horizontal mergers in the iron ore industry—An application of PCAIDS

The purpose of this paper is to estimate and analyse the price effects of the iron ore mergers between Rio Tinto and North Ltd in 2000, and CVRD and Caemi in 2001. The analyses are conducted using a merger simulation model that, based on the pre-merger situation, estimates the post-merger outcome. This paper applies the so-called proportionality-calibrated almost ideal demand system (PCAIDS) model, which assumes that the product is differentiated and that the strategic variable is price. The results from the merger simulations show that in the case of the merger between Rio Tinto and North Ltd, the merged firm has a combined market share of almost 20%. However, the estimated market weighted average price effect is only 2.6%. Regarding the merger between CVRD and Caemi, the merged firm's market share is about 29%, and the estimated market weighted average price effect is 4.6%. When removing Caemi's Canadian asset, which was the Commission decision in order to allow the merger, the market price effect decreases to 3.1%. Overall the results in this study support the Commission's decisions regarding both merger cases, and shows that merger simulations of price effects can be valuable tools in merger assessments.     

INDUSTRIAL WATER DEMAND WITH WATER REUSE1

ABSTRACT: This work establishes an industrial water demand (IWD) model for a short term estimate, which considers water reuse technologies and discharge regulations, for the integrated circuit (IC) industry in northern Taiwan. Based on the optimization of an industrial water cost system, a computerized system dynamics model (SD model) is developed to generate individual firm IWD using data from year 2000. A market IWD is further constructed for 25 1C firms in the study area and is approximated by an inverse logistic curve. Analytical results demonstrate that price elasticity varies with water price in cases involving water reuse.     

运用价格杠杆，促进环境保护产业的发展

环境保护产业作为“朝阳产业”,正在成为新的经济增长点。应运用价格杠杆,在建设骨干企业集团、健全环境保护产品市场体系、排污收费制度、价格信息服务等方面,推动环保产业的发展     

The shadow price of substitutable sulfur in the US electric power plant: a distance function approach

Given restrictions on sulfur dioxide emissions, a feasible long-run response could involve either an investment in improving boiler fuel-efficiency or a shift to a production process that is effective in removing sulfur dioxide. To allow for the possibility of substitution between sulfur and productive capital, we measure the shadow price of sulfur dioxide as the opportunity cost of lowering sulfur emissions in terms of forgone capital. The input distance function is estimated with data from 51 coal-fired US power units operating between 1977 and 1986. The indirect Morishima elasticities of substitution indicate that the substitutability of capital for sulfur is relatively high. The overall weighted average estimate of the shadow price of sulfur is -0.076 dollars per pound in constant 1976 dollars.     

A hedonic model of public market transactions for open space protection

A hedonic price function is estimated that illustrates how the price per acre of open space paid by public buyers such as counties or land trusts, is influenced by local demand and supply factors. The empirical regression model is illustrated using 133 public transactions (73% are purchases and 27% are easements) of open space in the Front Range of Colorado. The mean price per acre was $13 635. If a property provides access to water bodies, this feature increases the price per acre by $937, while adjacency of the parcel to existing park or open space adds $11 039 an acre. A 1% increase in county population results in a 0.27% increase in price per acre. Easements cost $6783 less than purchases, a sizeable cost saving. The prediction capability of the hedonic price equation may be an alternative to traditional real estate appraisal techniques when agencies must determine fair market values of prospective open space parcels that vary in attributes from existing ones.     

Post-merger time series analysis: Iron ore mining

In Brazil, mergers and acquisitions are usually analyzed by the antitrust authorities ex post, following a Structure-Conduct-Performance approach close to the US Merger Guidelines. However, this framework was unable to address the complexity posed by a series of acquisitions of four mining companies by the newly privatized national champion Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (known then as CVRD, nowadays as Vale). This article extends a Vector Error Correction model estimated by the Brazilian Ministry of Justice, which eventually came to reinforce the definition of the relevant geographic market and to test for structural breaks in the price series. A formal horizontal merger simulation model was not viable from the available data. Though international prices Granger-caused domestic prices in Brazil, they explain less than a third of the variance. Domestic price hikes in the acquired miners’ series were observed above the export price increase not long after the acquisitions, and a structural break could not be rejected. Since convergence of domestic prices to international levels were not to be punished, remedies eventually applied by the Brazilian Antitrust Tribunal focused on preventing CVRD from abusing dominant position to vertically foreclose competitors in logistics, a key competitive issue for the industry.     

建立和完善环保产业资金助动系统

没有一个有序高效的环保资本市场,缺乏强有力的资金支持系统是阻碍环保产业快速发展的根本问题。本文在调查研究和探索实践的基础上,建议在资金筹划、分配及使用上引进市场机制,发挥市场在资金运作方面的调节作用,引导资金向环保产业流动,促进环保产业快速发展。     

我国林业碳汇市场供需研究——以广东长隆碳汇造林项目为例

广东长隆碳汇造林项目作为我国首个获得国家发展和改革委员会签发的林业温室气体自愿减排(CCER)项目,对于我国林业碳汇参与应对气候变化具有重要的示范意义。本文对广东长隆碳汇造林项目进行了成本收益分析,发现林业碳汇交易价格被远远低估,从而使该项目不具备经济上的可复制性。为探究交易价格被低估的原因,本文考察了林业碳汇市场的供需关系,发现目前碳交易市场对林业碳汇CCER需求不足仅是表象,供需错配才是实质。首先,从需求侧来看,广东省碳排放配额设置过于宽松,缺乏林业碳汇CCER的接纳能力;其次,就供给侧而言,CCER的交易成本很高,且项目申报要求业主为企业法人,这严重限制了林业碳汇CCER的有效供给。鉴于以上问题,本文提出应同时从林业碳汇CCER的需求侧和供给侧着手改革。就需求侧而言,收紧广东省碳排放配额总量,并将林业碳汇CCER交易由补充机制改为配额管理。就供给侧而言,可以结合广东省推进林业碳普惠制度,将项目申报主体和交易主体放宽到独立法人和个人,广泛吸收民间资本、培育大型林业企业开展碳汇造林项目;降低碳汇项目进入门槛,根据省情制定方法学,简化签批手续。     

The Concepts of Energy,Environment, and Cost for Process Design

Abstract

The process industries (specifically, energy and chemicals) are characterized by a variety of reactors and reactions to bring about successful process operations. The design of energy-related and chemical processes and their evolution is a complex process that determines the competitiveness of these industries, as well as their environmental impact. Thus, we have developed an Enviro-Energy Concept designed to facilitate sustainable industrial development. The Complete Onion Model represents a complete methodology for chemical process design and illustrates all of the requirements to achieve the best possible design within the accepted environmental standards. Currently, NOx emissions from industrial processes continue to receive maximum attention, therefore the issue problem of NOx emissions from industrial sources such as power stations and nitric acid plants is considered. The Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) is one of the most promising and effective commercial technologies. It is considered the Best Available Control Technology (BACT) for NOx reduction. The solution of NOx Emissions problem is either through modifying the chemical process design and/or installing an end-of-pipe technology. The degree of integration between the process design and the installed technology plays a critical role in the capital cost evaluation. Therefore, integrating process units and then optimizing the design has a vital effect on the total cost. Both the environmental regulations and the cost evaluation are the boundary constraints of the optimum solution.     

Modeling protected species as an undesirable output: the case of sea turtle interactions in Hawaii's longline fishery

Interactions with sea turtles have occurred at an alarming rate in swordfish longlining in Hawaii in recent years and various regulations have been put forward to protect sea turtles. In order to understand the cost of reducing sea turtle interactions, methods have been developed to derive the shadow price of sea turtle bycatch based on fisher's welfare loss from a specific regulation. This paper illustrates an alternative method of calculating temporal and trip-specific cost of sea turtle bycatch reduction. The advantages of this method lie in the computation of shadow price without assuming specific regulation implementation and its relatively modest data requirement. A parametric output distance function is used to simultaneously model desirable and undesirable catches. Using the duality argument, the revenue-related shadow price of sea turtle bycatch can be derived from the estimated distance function. Average shadow price of sea turtle bycatch for the period 1991-1999 is estimated to be US $30873 in 1991 dollars. Average shadow prices of sea turtle bycatch by trip characteristics, such as fishing year, trip type and location are also estimated. Such information can be useful for policy makers to analyze tradeoffs and make appropriate policy decisions.     

Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply,reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.     

建立和完善环保产业资金助动系统

没有一个有序高效的环保资本市场,缺乏强有力的资金支持系统是障碍环保产业快速发展的根本问题。本文在调查研究和探索实践的基础上,建议在资金筹划、分配及使用上引进市场机制,发挥市场在资金运作方面的调节作用,引导资金向环保产业流动,促进环保产业快速发展。     

Investor demand and spot commodity prices

The on-going debate over the influence of investor demand on spot commodity prices largely attempts to assess this influence by measuring the growth in investor demand in recent years. Given the serious data problems that plague such analyses, this article pursues another approach in the hope of providing useful insights into the impact of investor demand on spot commodity prices. It focuses on the mechanisms by which investor demand affects spot prices, and in particular on two questions. First, how does an increase in investor demand on the futures markets affect the spot market and spot price? Second, when investor demand is increasing and pushing a commodity's price up, do physical stocks of the commodity also have to be rising, as economists and others widely assume?On the first question, the article concludes that a surge in investor demand raising prices on the futures markets will have a direct and comparable effect on the spot market prices when these markets are in strong contango. However, when markets are in weak contango or backwardation, price movements in the futures markets have a much looser effect on spot prices. As a result, changes in investor demand on the futures markets may have little or no influence on spot prices in the absence of a strong contango. Instead, changes in fundamentals (that is, producer supply and consumer demand) and possibly changes in investor demand taking place directly on the spot market largely determine the spot price at such times.On the second question, the article shows that investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling, despite the widespread presumption to the contrary.     

中国环境服务业的SCP范式分析

环境服务业在环保产业中占据重要位置,环境服务业健康有序发展是"十三五"工作的重点之一。应用SCP范式,从市场结构、市场行为和市场绩效等层面分析环境服务业发展现状,总结环境服务业特点及问题,主要包括:企业普遍规模偏小,盈利水平不高,市场集中度较低;产品差异化程度低,技术和产品还具有较大的提升空间;政策、贸易等存在壁垒,产业发展受到一定制约等。最终根据分析结果及存在的问题,从制度、市场、模式、贸易等层面提出环境服务业优化建议。     

Factor demand flexibility in the primary aluminium industry: Evidence from stagnating and expanding regions

The purpose of the paper is to analyse and compare short-run factor demand responses to price changes in the primary aluminium industry in Western Europe and the Africa-Middle East (AME) region. We outline a Translog variable cost function model, which is estimated employing a panel data set at the individual smelter level over the time period 1990-2003. The empirical results show evidence of limited - but far from insignificant - price-induced factor demand responses in the short-run. Overall aluminium smelters in the AME-region show evidence of higher estimated short-run own- and cross-price elasticities than their competitors in Western Europe, at least when it comes to labour and electricity demand. One important reason for this result is the greater number of pot lines with slightly different technologies at each smelter as well as the more intense use of the Prebake technology in the AME-region making retrofits in existing plants less costly than in Western Europe. The results also suggest that in both regions the demand for electricity has over time become less sensitive to short-run price changes, while the labour and material demand responses to price changes have increased but only in the AME-region. The liberalisation of the Western European electricity markets in combination with the rigid labour markets in this part of the world suggest that the shift in production capacity from the western world to the AME-region as well as China may continue.     

World phosphate supply

The Bureau of Mines investigated the resources, costs, capacities, market relationships, and short- and long-run supply of phosphate rock and phosphoric acid. The 206 mines and deposits evaluated in 30 market economy countries (MECs) contain an estimated 35.1 billion tonnes of recoverable phosphate rock (demonstrated resource level). US resources are sufficient to satisfy both the domestic market and an export market for phosphate products well beyond 2000. Resource depletion at current producers, however, means new property development (with higher costs) will be required if US production levels are to be maintained. Existing worldwide capacity can satisfy expected demand through the early 1990s. Expansion at existing mines or low demand growth could mean no new property development is required before the late 1990s. Worldwide, almost $8 billion could be required for the development of new phosphate rock properties between now and 2000, given 3% annual growth in demand. Though profit may not be the principal motivation for development of government-owned operations, most properties that could develop in the 1990s would require price increases of 20–50% to break even. To earn a 15% rate of return on investment, prices must rise to nearly double the $23–271 tonne US price level of 1988. Current US phosphate rock and phosphoric acid producers appear to be competitive (on a variable cost basis) with many other suppliers in major markets. New US properties will have higher variable costs than current producers; however, they are competitive with most projected new foreign development. The US phosphoric acid industry will most likely face increased competition as more of the foreign phosphate rock producers develop the capacity to process rock into phosphoric acid and other fertilizer products.