Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies produce larger tracts of interior, closed canopy forest, thus increasing the value of these landscapes for interior-dependent wildlife. We used the simulation model LANDIS to examine how the implementation of a dynamic zoning strategy would change trajectories of ecological succession in the Great Divide Ranger District of the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin over 500 years. The components of dynamic zoning strategies (number of zones in a scenario and the length of the hiatus between successive entries into zones) and their interaction had highly significant impacts on patterns of forest succession. Dynamic zoning scenarios with more zones and shorter hiatus lengths increased the average amount of the forest dominated by early successional aspen (Populus sp.). Dynamic zoning scenarios with two zones produced more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with four zones. Dynamic zoning scenarios with very short (30 years) or very long (120 years) hiatus lengths resulted in more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with intermediate hiatus lengths (60 and 90 years). However, none of the dynamic scenarios produced as much late successional mature northern hardwoods as the static alternative. Furthermore, the amounts of all habitat types in all dynamic zoning scenarios fluctuated greatly in time and space relative to static alternatives, which could negatively impact wildlife species that require a stable amount of habitat above some minimum critical threshold. Indeed, implementing dynamic zoning scenarios of different designs would have both positive and negative effects on wildlife species and for other objectives of forest management.     

A method to create simplified versions of existing habitat suitability index (HSI) models

The habitat evaluation procedures (HEP), developed by the US Fish and Wildlife Service, are widely used in the United States to determine the impacts of major construction projects on fish and wildlife habitats. HEP relies heavily on habitat suitability index (HSI) models that use measurements of important habitat characteristics to rate habitat quality for a species on a scale of 0 (unsuitable) to 1.0 (optimal). This report describes a method to simplify existing HSI models to reduce the time and expense involved in sampling habitat variables. Simplified models for three species produced HSI values within 0.2 of those predicted by the original models 90% of the time. Simplified models are particularly useful for rapid habitat inventories and evaluations, wildlife management, and impact assessments in extensive areas or with limited time and personnel.     

Linking linear programming and spatial simulation models to predict landscape effects of forest management alternatives

Forest management planners require analytical tools to assess the effects of alternative strategies on the sometimes disparate benefits from forests such as timber production and wildlife habitat. We assessed the spatial patterns of alternative management strategies by linking two models that were developed for different purposes. We used a linear programming model (Spectrum) to optimize timber harvest schedules, then a simulation model (HARVEST) to project those schedules in a spatially explicit way and produce maps from which the spatial pattern of habitat could be calculated. We demonstrated the power of this approach by evaluating alternative plans developed for a national forest plan revision in Wisconsin, USA. The amount of forest interior habitat was inversely related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under the alternatives compared to the current plan. The amount of edge habitat was positively related to the amount of timber cut, and increased under all alternatives. The amount of mature northern hardwood interior and edge habitat increased for all alternatives, but mature pine habitat area varied. Mature age classes of all forest types increased, and young classes decreased under all alternatives. The average size of patches (defined by age class) generally decreased. These results are consistent with the design goals of each of the alternatives, but reveal that the spatial differences among the alternatives are modest. These complementary models are valuable for quantifying and comparing the spatial effects of alternative management strategies.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Comparative Influence of Forest Management and Habitat Structural Factors on the Abundances of Hollow-Nesting Bird Species in Subtropical Australian Eucalypt Forest

We examined the impact of single-tree selective logging and fuel reduction burns on the abundance of hollow-nesting bird species at a regional scale in southeastern Queensland, Australia. Data were collected on species abundance and habitat structure of dry sclerophyll production forest at 36 sites with known logging and fire histories. Sixteen bird species were recorded with most being resident, territorial, obligate hollow nesters that used hollows that were either small (<10 cm diameter) or very large (>18 cm diameter). Species densities were typically low, but combinations of two forest management and three habitat structural variables influenced the abundances of eight bird species in different and sometimes conflicting ways. The results suggest that habitat tree management for biodiversity in production forests cannot depend upon habitat structural characteristics alone. Management histories appear to have independent influence (on some bird species) that are distinguishable from their impacts on habitat structure per se. Rather than managing to maximize species abundances to maintain biodiversity, we may be better off managing to avoid extinctions of populations by identifying thresholds of acceptable fluctuations in populations of not only hollow-nesting birds but other forest dependent wildlife relative to scientifically valid forest management and habitat structural surrogates.     

Modeling the Impacts of Two Bark Beetle Species Under a Warming Climate in the Southwestern USA: Ecological and Economic Consequences

Predicted climate warming is expected to have profound effects on bark beetle population dynamics in the southwestern United States. Temperature-mediated effects may include increases in developmental rates, generations per year, and changes in habitat suitability. As a result, the impacts of Dendroctonus frontalis and Dendroctonus mexicanus on forest resources are likely subject to amplification. To assess the implications of such change, we evaluated the generations per year of these species under three climate scenarios using a degree-day development model. We also assessed economic impacts of increased beetle outbreaks in terms of the costs of application of preventative silvicultural treatments and potential economic revenues forgone. Across the southwestern USA, the potential number of beetle generations per year ranged from 1–3+ under historical climate, an increase of 2–4+ under the minimal warming scenario and 3–5+ under the greatest warming scenario. Economic benefits of applying basal area reduction treatments to reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreaks ranged from 7.75/ha (NM) to7.75/ha (NM) to 95.69/ha (AZ) under historical conditions, and 47.96/ha (NM) to47.96/ha (NM) to 174.58/ha (AZ) under simulated severe drought conditions. Basal area reduction treatments that reduce forest susceptibility to beetle outbreak result in higher net present values than no action scenarios. Coupled with other deleterious consequences associated with beetle outbreaks, such as increased wildfires, the results suggest that forest thinning treatments play a useful role in a period of climate warming.     

Habitat, Landscape and Bird Composition in Mountain Forest Fragments

The study attempts to separate the effects of forest fragmentation related to landscape (patch area, isolation) and habitat (altitude, vegetation structure) on bird community composition in a mountain pine forest. Bird composition was related, using a multivariate approach (canonical correspondence analyses), to either habitat or to landscape, eliminating the effect of habitat statistically. Bird composition and species richness varied with patch area and isolation from large pine stands, but this effect could be assigned principally to variation in vegetation structure and altitude. Another effect, that of increasing occurrence and numbers of Anthus trivialis with decreasing distance to nearest low-altitude forest, could be assigned to both habitat (grass cover) and landscape (connectivity effects). Management implications are drawn from the results.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.     

SIMULATION AND DECISIONMAKING: THE PLATTE RIVER BASIN IN NEBRASKA1

Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication.     

Using a Down-Scaled Bioclimate Envelope Model to Determine Long-Term Temporal Connectivity of Garry oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus garryana</Emphasis>) Habitat in Western North America: Implications for Protected Area Planning

Under the Canadian Species at Risk Act (SARA), Garry oak (Quercus garryana) ecosystems are listed as “at-risk” and act as an umbrella for over one hundred species that are endangered to some degree. Understanding Garry oak responses to future climate scenarios at scales relevant to protected area managers is essential to effectively manage existing protected area networks and to guide the selection of temporally connected migration corridors, additional protected areas, and to maintain Garry oak populations over the next century. We present Garry oak distribution scenarios using two random forest models calibrated with down-scaled bioclimatic data for British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon based on 1961–1990 climate normals. The suitability models are calibrated using either both precipitation and temperature variables or using only temperature variables. We compare suitability predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) and present CGCM2 model results under two emissions scenarios. For each GCM and emissions scenario we apply the two Garry oak suitability models and use the suitability models to determine the extent and temporal connectivity of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat within protected areas from 2010 to 2099. The suitability models indicate that while 164 km² of the total protected area network in the region (47,990 km²) contains recorded Garry oak presence, 1635 and 1680 km² of climatically suitable Garry oak habitat is currently under some form of protection. Of this suitable protected area, only between 6.6 and 7.3% will be “temporally connected” between 2010 and 2099 based on the CGCM2 model. These results highlight the need for public and private protected area organizations to work cooperatively in the development of corridors to maintain temporal connectivity in climatically suitable areas for the future of Garry oak ecosystems.     

Balancing Energy Development and Conservation: A Method Utilizing Species Distribution Models

Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.     

Maximizing Benefits from Riparian Revegetation Efforts: Local- and Landscape-Level Determinants of Avian Response

With limited financial resources available for habitat restoration, information that ensures and/or accelerates success is needed to economize effort and maximize benefit. In the Central Valley of California USA, riparian habitat has been lost or degraded, contributing to the decline of riparian-associated birds and other wildlife. Active restoration of riparian plant communities in this region has been demonstrated to increase local population sizes and species diversity of landbirds. To evaluate factors related to variation in the rate at which bird abundance increased after restoration, we examined bird abundance as a function of local (restoration design elements) and landscape (proportion of riparian vegetation in the landscape and riparian patch density) metrics at 17 restoration projects within five project areas along the Sacramento River. We developed a priori model sets for seven species of birds and used an information theoretic approach to identify factors associated with the rate at which bird abundance increased after restoration. For six of seven species investigated, the model with the most support contained a variable for the amount of riparian forest in the surrounding landscape. Three of seven bird species were positively correlated with the number of tree species planted and three of seven were positively correlated with the planting densities of particular tree species. Our results indicate that restoration success can be enhanced by selecting sites near existing riparian habitat and planting multiple tree species. Hence, given limited resources, efforts to restore riparian habitat for birds should focus on landscape-scale site selection in areas with high proportions of existing riparian vegetation.     

Effects of Mowing and Prescribed Fire on Plant Community Structure and Function in Rare Coastal Sandplains,Nantucket Island,MA, USA

Coastal sandplains provide habitat for a suite of rare and endangered plant and wildlife species in the northeastern United States. These early successional plant communities were maintained by natural and anthropogenic disturbances including salt spray, fire, and livestock grazing, but over the last 150 years, a decrease in anthropogenic disturbance frequency and intensity has resulted in a shift towards woody shrub dominance at the expense of herbaceous taxa. This study quantified the effects of more than a decade of dormant season disturbance-based vegetation management (mowing and prescribed fire) on coastal sandplain plant community composition on Nantucket Island, Massachusetts, USA. We used time-series plant cover data from two similar sites to evaluate the effectiveness of disturbance management for restoring herbaceous species cover and reducing woody shrub dominance. Our results indicate that applying management outside of the peak of the growing season has not been effective in maintaining or increasing the cover of herbaceous species. While management activities resulted in significant (P < 0.01) increases in herbaceous species immediately after treatment, woody species recolonized and dominated treated sites within 3-years post treatment at the expense of graminoids and forbs. These results highlight the difficulties associated with directing ecological succession using disturbance-based management to maintain rare, herbaceous species in coastal sandplain systems that were once a prevalent landscape component under historically chronic anthropogenic disturbance. Further experimentation with growing season disturbance-based management and different combinations of management techniques could provide insights into management alternatives for maintaining herbaceous conservation targets in coastal sandplains.     

Potential Effects of Direct Transfer Payments on Farmland Habitat Diversity in a Marginal European Landscape

Farmland habitat diversity in marginal European landscapes changed significantly in the past decades. Further changes toward homogenization are expected, particularly in the course of European agricultural policy. Based on three alternative transfer payment schemes, we modeled spatially explicit potential effects on the farmland habitat diversity in a marginal European landscape. We defined (1) a scenario with direct transfer payments coupled to production, (2) a scenario with direct transfer payments decoupled from production, and (3) a scenario phasing out all direct transfer payments. We characterized habitat diversity with three indices: habitat richness, evenness, and rarity. The habitat pattern in 1995 served as reference for comparison. All scenarios predicted a general trend of homogenization of the farmland habitat pattern, yet to a differing extent. Transfer payments coupled to production (Scenario 1) favored the abandonment of agricultural production, particularly in low-productive areas and arable land use in more productive areas. Habitat richness and habitat evenness had intermediate values in this scenario. Decoupling transfer payments from production (Scenario 2) supported grassland as most profitable farming system. This led to a grassland-dominated landscape with low values of all habitat diversity indices. Phasing out transfer payments (Scenario 3) resulted in complete abandonment or afforestation of agricultural land and extremely low values in all habitat diversity indices. Scenario results indicate that transfer payments may prevent cessation of agricultural production, but may not counteract homogenization in marginal landscapes. Conserving high farmland habitat diversity in such landscapes may require support schemes, e.g., Pillar Two of EU Common Agricultural Policy.     

Reduced complexity models for regional aquatic habitat suitability assessment

Generalizable methods that identify suitable aquatic habitat across large river basins and regions are needed to inform resource management. Habitat suitability models intersect environmental variables to predict species occurrence, but are often data intensive and thus are typically developed at small spatial scales. This study estimated mean monthly aquatic habitat suitability throughout Utah (USA) for Bonneville Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii utah) and Bluehead Sucker (Catostomus discobolus) with publicly available, geospatial datasets. We evaluated 15 habitat suitability models using unique combinations of percent of mean annual discharge, velocity, gradient, and stream temperature. Environmental variables were validated with observed conditions and species presence observations to verify habitat suitability estimates. Stream temperature, gradient, and discharge best predicted Bonneville Cutthroat Trout presence, and gradient and discharge best predicted Bluehead Sucker presence. Simple aquatic habitat suitability models outperformed models that used only streamflow to estimate habitat for both species, and are useful for conservation planning and water resources decision-making. This modeling approach could enable resource managers to prioritize stream restoration across vast regions within their management domain, and is potentially compatible with water management modeling to improve ecological objectives in management models.     

Spatial Rule-Based Assessment of Habitat Potential to Predict Impact of Land Use Changes on Biodiversity at Municipal Scale

In human dominated landscapes, ecosystems are under increasing pressures caused by urbanization and infrastructure development. In Alpine valleys remnant natural areas are increasingly affected by habitat fragmentation and loss. In these contexts, there is a growing risk of local extinction for wildlife populations; hence assessing the consequences on biodiversity of proposed land use changes is extremely important. The article presents a methodology to assess the impacts of land use changes on target species at a local scale. The approach relies on the application of ecological profiles of target species for habitat potential (HP) assessment, using high resolution GIS-data within a multiple level framework. The HP, in this framework, is based on a species-specific assessment of the suitability of a site, as well of surrounding areas. This assessment is performed through spatial rules, structured as sets of queries on landscape objects. We show that by considering spatial dependencies in habitat assessment it is possible to perform better quantification of impacts of local-level land use changes on habitats.     

Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.     

Managing Radioactively Contaminated Land: Implications for Habitat Diversity

Radioactive contamination of agricultural land may necessitate long-term changes in food production systems, through application of selected countermeasures, in order to reduce the accumulation of radionuclides in food. We quantified the impact of selected countermeasures on habitat diversity, using the hypothetical case of two agricultural areas in Finland. The management scenarios studied were conversions from grassland to cereal production and from grassland and crop production to afforestation. The two study sites differed with respect to present agricultural production: one being predominantly cereal production and seminatural grasslands, while the other was dominated by intensive grass and dairy production. Some of the management scenarios are expected to affect landscape structures and habitat diversity. These potential changes were assessed using a spatial pattern analysis program in connection with geographic information systems. The studied landscape changes resulted in a more monotonous landscape structure compared to the present management, by increasing the mean habitat patch size, reducing the total habitat edge length and reducing the overall habitat diversity calculated by the Shannon diversity index. The degree of change was dependent on the present agricultural management practice in the case study sites. Where dairy production was predominant, the landscape structure changes were mostly due to conversion of intensive pastures and grasslands to cereal production. In the area dominated by cereal production and seminatural grasslands, the greatest predicted impacts resulted from afforestation of meadows and pastures. The studied management changes are predicted to reduce biodiversity at the species level as well as diminishing species-rich habitats. This study has predicted prominent side effects in habitat diversity resulting from application of management scenarios. These potential long-term impacts should be considered by decision-makers when planning future strategies in the event of radionuclide deposition.