Fiji, land of tropical cyclones and hurricanes: A case study of agricultural rehabilitation

Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have a severe impact on the social and economic activities of affected communities. For small island nations in the Pacific region, the effects can be devastating because of their smallness. FQi and several other countries in the region are vulnerable to such disasters as they are situated in the zone where cyclones occur frequently.
During the last decade, the frequency of natural disasters and their adverse impact on die economic and social development of small nations like Fiji, has aroused awareness mat relief efforts must go beyond immediate "mopping up" operations to those which contribute to attaining longer term benefits through reconstruction and rehabilitation.
The paper outlines the 1985 agricultural rehabilitation program and discusses related issues and problems.     

登陆广东的热带气旋及其产生的灾害链

根据广东省1949～2000年52年的热带气旋统计资料和减灾防灾年鉴，对登陆广东的热带气旋灾害特征及其形成的灾害链进行了研究。结果表明，登陆广东热带气旋灾害发生频次高，强度大，范围广，突发性、并发性强；具有区域性，季节性，并有集中于某一地区某一时间的特征。由于热带气旋各致灾因子的连锁反应，次生灾害常形成多种灾害链。本文根据灾害链成因对其进行了分类分析。     

Foreignness as a constraint on learning: The impact of migrants on disaster resilience in small islands

Knowledge about natural hazard management has increased significantly since Gilbert White's seminal research in 1945, yet people are still badly affected by natural hazards. A key question remains in natural hazards research: why, when all the conditions for effective disaster risk reduction are in place, do some people not take action to reduce their risk of harm? Through a questionnaire-based study we investigated the motivating factors that led residents of the Cayman Islands to prepare for annual tropical cyclones (hurricanes). Factors that increase the likelihood of individuals preparing for hurricanes are: previous experience of major storms, having linking networks and ties, having a child under the age of 15 in the home, and residency status—expatriate residents are less likely to prepare. Factors that appear to prevent adaptive behaviour include: living close to or adjacent to the coast, recent migration to the islands, and living in rented accommodation. The findings of the survey confirm that even within societies that are well prepared for tropical cyclones, there are still sub-groups who do not engage with the preparedness process. In the case of the Cayman Islands, new migrants are the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones as they tend to fall into the demographic groups least likely to prepare for cyclones, live in locations with high levels of exposure to cyclone impacts, and interact mostly with other expatriates with no previous experience of cyclone impacts. As climate change promises to bring an increasing intensity of tropical cyclones, these findings have relevance for all islands which draw on migrant workers to support economic growth.     

Deaths in natural hazards in the solomon islands

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.     

A preliminary study on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones in Taiwan 2000–2014

Studies on mortality attributed to tropical cyclones often concern large-scale disasters. Attention is rarely paid to small-scale mortality over the long term. To understand the relationship between the environment and the behavior that contributes to mortality, this article uses a classification table to review the 1556 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones, named typhoons, in Taiwan during the period 2000–2014. The results demonstrate that the majority of outdoor deaths are associated with work-related activities, while most indoor deaths occur during non-work-related activities. Taking action, such as stopping the car on a bridge if the tail lights of a vehicle in front disappear, and not walking on the roadside when the road is flooded by muddy water, may help to reduce the likelihood of typhoon-attributed death. The findings also help to dispel four myths associated with typhoon-attributed mortality.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

Using cluster analysis to explore mortality patterns associated with tropical cyclones

Understanding the circumstances and conditions surrounding disaster‐attributed deaths may contribute to designing and implementing emergency preparedness and response programmes. This paper introduces a three‐step cluster analysis of multiple binary variables to investigate mortality patterns related to tropical cyclones. It is designed to overcome the difficulties of performing cluster analysis in a disaster database that is composed in part of nominal variables and is unavoidably incomplete owing to missing information. The first step in the process codes all variables as binary data in order to accommodate the nominal variables. The second step calculates Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for pairs of variables. And the third step subjects the correlation coefficients to cluster analysis. Data related to 1,575 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons) that struck Taiwan between 2000 and 2015 are used to illustrate the method. The results yield two distinct groups of variables that are worthy of further exploration.     

Cyclone disaster vulnerability and response experiences in coastal Bangladesh

For generations, cyclones and tidal surges have frequently devastated lives and property in coastal and island Bangladesh. This study explores vulnerability to cyclone hazards using first‐hand coping recollections from prior to, during and after these events. Qualitative field data suggest that, beyond extreme cyclone forces, localised vulnerability is defined in terms of response processes, infrastructure, socially uneven exposure, settlement development patterns, and livelihoods. Prior to cyclones, religious activities increase and people try to save food and valuable possessions. Those in dispersed settlements who fail to reach cyclone shelters take refuge in thatched‐roof houses and big‐branch trees. However, women and children are affected more despite the modification of traditional hierarchies during cyclone periods. Instinctive survival strategies and intra‐community cooperation improve coping post cyclone. This study recommends that disaster reduction programmes encourage cyclone mitigation while being aware of localised realities, endogenous risk analyses, and coping and adaptation of affected communities (as active survivors rather than helpless victims).     

中国海岸地带面临的重大环境变化与灾害及其防御对策

中国海岸地带面向２１世纪的持续发展,面临着相对海面加速上升和热带气旋、风暴潮与低洼地洪涝不断加剧以及海岸环境急剧恶化等一系列重大环境变化与灾害问题。本文着重分析相对海面上升、热带气旋、风暴潮与洪水灾害以及海岸环境污染的特征、演变趋势及防御对策。     

热带气旋灾害等级预评估方法初探

利用1982-2009年期间48个影响青田县的热带气旋全县灾情记录,选用相应过程全县经济损失占当年GDP的比例和死亡人数作为衡量热带气旋影响程度的主要因子,计算了每个历史过程的灾情指数;再以灾情指数为样本,以对应过程的全县过程平均雨量、过程最大雨量、日最大雨量、最大风速为因子,通过多元线性回归建立了回归方程,为热带气旋影响灾害预评估提供一种参考依据。     

Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982-1983 in French Polynesia

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low-frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

Invisible institutions in emergencies: Evacuating the remote Indigenous community of Warruwi,Northern Territory Australia,from Cyclone Monica

Tropical Cyclone Monica is one of the most intense Australian cyclones in recorded history, and threatened several Indigenous communities in April 2006. It prompted the evacuation of the remote island community of Warruwi, and caused considerable damage to the mainland township of Maningrida. The evacuation of Warruwi went smoothly as emergency services personnel, the community and the airline cooperated to airlift some 350 people to designated safe areas on the mainland. We show that local institutions culturally embedded in Indigenous ways of understanding and responding to the world were important in providing essential but ‘unofficial’ services during the emergency. Recognizing and respecting the resilience of the local process involved in everyday Indigenous life is revealed as central to ensuring local cooperation and effective involvement of state and national institutions in delivering effective measures during emergencies. Ensuring that local, state and national authorities offer recognition and understanding of these Indigenous institutions, and develop strong relationships with them, should be a priority in developing approaches that limit conflict and trauma where emergency services risk overriding local protocol.     

影响黄渤海域热带气旋的灾害分析

分析了1971—2000年北上影响辽东半岛及黄渤海域热带气旋的气候特征、路径分类及灾害特点，结果表明，台风是造成黄渤海域风浪灾害的主要天气系统之一；辽东半岛地区，最大暴雨是由台风引起的；不同路径的热带气旋造成的灾害不同；热带气旋活动具有群集性，在产生风暴潮、暴雨的同时，常引发洪涝灾害、泥石流、滑坡等次生灾害，加重了灾害程度。     

Criteria for Evaluating the Condition of a Tropical Cyclone Warning System

This paper evaluates the condition (i.e. health) of a tropical cyclone warning system (TCWS) during a 'quiet period' between infrequent intense cyclones. Capacity to make pre-disaster evaluations is important--disaster warning systems need to be in sound condition before, not after, disaster. The research--part of the UK's International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction Flagship Programme--focuses upon an evaluatory method first used on flood warning systems. The Criteria-development Matrix comprises social, organisational and institutional criteria by which a TCWS may be assessed using a five-stage development scale. This method is used to evaluate Mauritius's TCWS using in-depth interview data. Ways to enhance the method and apply it to other disaster warning systems are discussed. The TCWS in Mauritius is a relatively sound one from which others can learn. Weaknesses requiring attention for Mauritius's TCWS to progress to an advanced level of development are identified.     

Framework for integrating indigenous and scientific knowledge for disaster risk reduction

A growing awareness of the value of indigenous knowledge has prompted calls for its use within disaster risk reduction. The use of indigenous knowledge alongside scientific knowledge is increasingly advocated but there is as yet no clearly developed framework demonstrating how the two may be integrated to reduce community vulnerability to environmental hazards. This paper presents such a framework, using a participatory approach in which relevant indigenous and scientific knowledge may be integrated to reduce a community's vulnerability to environmental hazards. Focusing on small island developing states it presents an analysis of the need for such a framework alongside the difficulties of incorporating indigenous knowledge. This is followed by an explanation of the various processes within the framework, drawing on research completed in Papua New Guinea. This framework is an important first step in identifying how indigenous and scientific knowledge may be integrated to reduce community vulnerability to environmental hazards.     

中国沿海风暴潮灾害的历史变化及未来趋向

中国是全球少数几个同时受台风风暴潮和温带风暴潮危害的国家之一,风暴潮灾一年四季,从面到北均可发生,本文基于中国沿海近５０年风暴潮灾时间变化和空间分布特点的分析,着重探讨了近５００年全国及长江、黄河、珠江三角洲的历史记录和近５０年实测风暴潮灾发生频次的变化及其与气候波动的关系,并对未来全球变化背景下,中国沿海风暴潮灾的变化趋向进行了讨论。结果表明：近５００年来,中国沿海的风暴潮灾的气温较高的偏暖时段     

多种灾情预测模型的研究—2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测

采用3种方法,即灰色模型GM,自回归－滑动平均模型ARMA和人工神经网络ANN预测了上海市2001年后（含2001年）强热带气旋出现的趋势与规律,结果表明,2001、2006和2010年将出现中级以上灾难而两个年份灾情较重。通过数值计算结果比较了3种方法的应用特点,为进一步建立综合预测模型打下了基础。     

多种灾情预测模型的研究──2001年后上海市热带气旋灾情预测

采用３种方法,即灰色模型ＧＭ、自回归－滑动平均模型ＡＲＭＡ和人工神经网络ＡＮＮ预测了上海市２００１年后（含２００１年）强热带气旋出现的趋势与规律。结果表明,２００１,２００６和２０１０年将出现中级以上灾情,而前两个年份灾情较重．通过数值计算结果比较了３种方法的应用特点,为进一步建立综合预测模型打下基础。