Local knowledge and adaptation to climate change in natural resource-based societies of the Asia-Pacific

This paper reviewed 42 studies of how local knowledge contributes to adaptation to climate and climate change in the Asia-Pacific Region. Most studies focused on traditional ecological or indigenous knowledge. Three simple questions were addressed: (1) How are changes in climate recognized? (2) What is known about how to adapt to changes in climate? (3) How do people learn about how to adapt? Awareness of change is an important element of local knowledge. Changes in climate are recognized at multiple time scales from observations that warn of imminent extreme weather through expectations for the next season to identification of multi-year historical trends. Observations are made of climate, its impact on physical resources, and bio-indicators. Local knowledge about how to adapt can be divided into four major classes: land and water management, physical infrastructure, livelihood strategies, and social institutions. Adaptation actions vary with time scale of interest from dealing with risks of disaster from extreme weather events, through slow onset changes such as seasonal droughts, to dealing with long-term multi-year shifts in climate. Local knowledge systems differ in the capacities and ways in which they support learning. Many are dynamic and draw on information from other places, whereas others are more conservative and tightly institutionalized. Past experience of events and ways of learning may be insufficient for dealing with a novel climate. Once the strengths and limitations of local knowledge (like those of science) are grasped the opportunities for meaningful hybridization of scientific and local knowledge for adaptation expand.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate risks in Ontario agriculture

A vulnerability approach to climate change adaptation research is employed to explore prospects of agricultural adaptation to climatic variability and change. The methodological approach focuses on the system of concern, in this case, farms in Perth County, Ontario. Twenty-five interviews and four focus groups with farmers were used to identify climate risks on farms, and to document farmers’ responses to conditions and risks associated with climate and weather. The information collected describes a complex decision-making environment, with many forces both external and internal to the farm operation influencing management decisions. Within this environment, climate and weather are consistently referred to as a significant force influencing both farm operations and management decisions. Farmers have, however, developed a wide-range of anticipatory and reactive management strategies to manage climate risks. While these have potential to address future climate-related risks and opportunities, there are limits to adaptation, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events may exceed their adaptive capacities. Farmers are also generally unaware and/or unconcerned about future climate change, which could constrain opportunities to adopt long-term climate change adaptations.     

Understanding barriers to decision making in the UK energy-food-water nexus: The added value of interdisciplinary approaches

The nexus represents a multi-dimensional means of scientific enquiry which seeks to describe the complex and non-linear interactions between water, energy, food, with the climate, and further understand wider implications for society. These resources are fundamental for human life but are negatively affected by shocks such as climate change and characterize some of the main challenges for global sustainable development. Given the multidimensional and complex nature of the nexus, a transdisciplinary approach to knowledge development through co-production is needed to timely and effectively inform the decision making processes to build societal resilience to these shocks going beyond the sectorality of current research practice. The paper presents findings from five themed workshops (shocks and hazards, infrastructure, local economy, governance and governments, finance and insurance) with 80 stakeholders from academia, government and industry in the UK to explore the impact of climate and weather shocks across the energy-food-water nexus and barriers to related responses. The research identified key stakeholders’ concerns, opportunities and barriers to better inform decision making centred on four themes: communication and collaboration, decision making processes, social and cultural dimensions, and the nature of responses to nexus shocks. We discuss implications of these barriers and how addressing these can better facilitate constructive dialogue and more efficient decision-making in response to nexus shocks.     

Climate change and local level disaster risk reduction planning: need, opportunities and challenges

The field of climate change is full of uncertainties that are limiting strategic disaster risk reduction planning. In this paper, however, we argued that there is lot to do before we get our hands on reliable estimates of future climate change impacts. It includes bringing together different stakeholders in a framework suggested in this paper, developing case studies that reflect long-term local impacts of climate change, capacity building of local stakeholders that enables them to take decisions under uncertainty etc. We proposed a simple scheme that brings together climate, disaster and policy community together to start a dialogue in a run-up to understanding wider aspects of long-term risk reduction at local level. Strategic thinking, which has only been restricted to national and regional planning to date, needs to be inculcated in local level disaster risk reduction and policy personnel as well. There is a need to move from the attitude of considering local level players as ‘implementers’ to ‘innovators’ for which developing a network of self learning and evolving organizations are required at the local level.     

Risks in urban rooftop agriculture: Assessing stakeholders’ perceptions to ensure efficient policymaking

Rooftop agriculture (RA) is an innovative form of urban agriculture that takes advantage of unused urban spaces while promoting local food production. However, the implementation of RA projects is limited due to stakeholders’ perceived risks. Such risks should be addressed and minimized in policymaking processes to ensure the sustainable deployment of RA initiatives. This paper evaluates the risks that stakeholders perceive in RA and compares these perceptions with the currently available knowledge, including scientific literature, practices and market trends. Qualitative interviews with 56 stakeholders from Berlin and Barcelona were analyzed for this purpose. The results show that perceived risks can be grouped into five main categories: i) risks associated with urban integration (e.g., conflicts with images of “agriculture”), ii) risks associated with the production system (e.g., gentrification potential), iii) risks associated with food products (e.g., soil-less growing techniques are “unnatural”), iv) environmental risks (e.g., limited organic certification) and v) economic risks (e.g., competition with other rooftop uses). These risks are primarily related to a lack of (scientific) knowledge, insufficient communication and non-integrative policymaking. We offer recommendations for efficient project design and policymaking processes. In particular, demonstration and dissemination activities as well as participatory policymaking can narrow the communication gap between RA developers and citizens.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Coastal flooding,climate change and environmental justice: identifying obstacles and incentives for adaptation in two metropolitan Boston Massachusetts communities

We explored the possible future impacts of increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise and the potential adaptation responses of two urban, environmental justice communities in the metropolitan Boston area of Massachusetts. East Boston is predominantly a residential area with some industrial and commercial activities, particularly along the coastal fringe. Everett, a city to the north of Boston, has a diversified industrial and commercial base. While these two communities have similar socioeconomic characteristics, they differ substantially in the extent to which residents would be impacted by increased coastal flooding. In East Boston, a large portion of residents would be flooded, while in Everett, it is the commercial/industrial districts that are primarily vulnerable. Through a series of workshops with residents in each community, we found that the target populations do not have an adaptation perspective or knowledge of any resources that could assist them in this challenge. Furthermore, they do not feel included in the planning processes within their communities. However, a common incentive for both communities was an intense commitment to their communities and an eagerness to learn more and become actively engaged in decisions regarding climate change adaptation. The lessons that can be applied to other studies include 1) images are powerful tools in communicating concepts, 2) understanding existing cultural knowledge and values in adaptation planning is essential to the planning process and 3) engaging local residents at the beginning of the process can create important educational opportunities and develop trust and consensus that is necessary for moving from concept to implementation.     

Downscaling and visioning of mountain snow packs and other climate change implications in North Vancouver, British Columbia

This paper provides an overview of a collaborative study on visualizing climate change at the local scale. A conceptual framework has been developed, in which local scenarios and visualizations of climate change impacts and response were created to facilitate local dialogue on incorporating climate change into long-term planning and implementation of community development decisions. As part of a larger effort to generate a new integrated participatory visioning process, this paper describes a case study of the District of North Vancouver which created visualizations of changing mountain snow and landscape conditions, and provides new insights on issues and dilemmas in using realistic landscape visualizations to depict scientific modelling projections, local responses to climate change, and uncertainty. Results from this study suggest that the visualizations, and subsequent dialogue sessions, did influence emotional response to climate change as well as self-assessed understanding of adaptation and mitigation response options. However, there is a need to test this visioning process with larger heterogeneous groups of participants in order to better assess its effectiveness in enabling dialogue on local responses to climate change.     

Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.     

The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science

The funding of scientific research is almost always justified in terms of the potential for achieving beneficial societal outcomes. In pursuing a particular societal outcome, how can we know if one research portfolio is better than another? In this paper we conceptualize: (1) science in terms of a “supply” of knowledge and information, (2) societal outcomes in terms of a “demand” function that seeks to apply knowledge and information to achieve specific societal goals, and (3) science policy decision-making as a process aimed at “reconciling” the dynamic relationship between “supply” and “demand.” The core of our argument is that “better” science portfolios (that is, portfolios viewed as more likely to advance desired societal outcomes, however defined) would be achieved if science policy decisions reflected knowledge about the supply of science, the demand for science, and the relationship between the two. We provide a general method for pursuing such knowledge, using the specific example of climate change science to illustrate how research on science policy could be organized to support improved decisions about the organization of science itself.     

The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?

Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003–2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.     

Gaps in provincial decision-maker’s perception and knowledge of climate change adaptation in China

The perspectives and knowledge of decision makers, especially those at the provincial level, have great impact on the progress of climate change adaptation in China. Therefore, identifying knowledge gaps and enhancing climate adaptation awareness of decision makers at that level is very important. Based on this aim, we conducted a survey of climate change adaptation awareness among 85 administrative and management personnel from governmental departments responsible for climate change adaptation planning in five provinces. Study findings revealed that over half of respondents have knowledge of climate change adaptation measures, but the extent of understanding varied across different adaptation aspects and regions. Among the different aspects, understanding of measures related to human health protection was the lowest. A large majority of respondents indicated an eagerness to obtain knowledge and information about climate change adaptation, but the main barrier is a lack of training and learning material. When making adaptation plans or policies, the greatest obstacle expressed was a funding shortage. Information generated from this study can provide direction and guidance for training and educating provincial decision makers in order to improve the levels of adaptation planning and policy making.     

Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change impact assessment and adaptation

Assessing and adapting to the impacts of climate change requires balancing social, economic, and environmental factors in the context of an ever-expanding range of objectives, uncertainties, and management options. The term decision support describes a diverse class of resources designed to help manage this complexity and assist decision makers in understanding impacts and evaluating management options. Most climate-related decision support resources implicitly assume that decision making is primarily limited by the quantity and quality of available information. However, a wide variety of evidence suggests that institutional, political, and communication processes are also integral to organizational decision making. Decision support resources designed to address these processes are underrepresented in existing tools. These persistent biases in the design and delivery of decision support may undermine efforts to move decision support from research to practice. The development of new approaches to decision support that consider a wider range of relevant issues is limited by the lack of information about the characteristics, context, and alternatives associated with climate-related decisions. We propose a new approach called a decision assessment and decision inventory that will provide systematic information describing the relevant attributes of climate-related decisions. This information can be used to improve the design of decision support resources, as well as to prioritize research and development investments. Application of this approach will help provide more effective decision support based on a balanced foundation of analytical tools, environmental data, and relevant information about decisions and decision makers.     

More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change

Climate change and sea-level rise (SLR) increasingly threaten the world's coastlines, managers at local, regional, state, and federal levels will need to plan and implement adaptation measures to cope with these impacts in order to continue to protect the economic, social, and environmental security of the state and of local communities.In this paper, we explore the information needs of California coastal managers as they begin confronting the growing risks from climate change. Through this case study we examine the challenges managers face presently, what information they use to perform their responsibilities, what additional information and other knowledge resources they may need to begin planning for climate change. We place our study into the broader context of the study of how science can best support policy-makers and resource managers as they begin to plan and prepare for adaptation to climate change.Based on extensive interview and survey research in the state, we find that managers prefer certain types of information and information sources and would benefit from various learning opportunities (in addition to that information) to make better use of available global change information. Coastal managers are concerned about climate change and willing to address it in their work, but require financial and technical assistance from other agencies at the state and federal level to do so. The study illustrates the strong need for boundary organizations to serve various intermediary functions between science and practice, especially in the context of adaptation to global climate change impacts.     

The 1998 Yangtze Floods: The Use of Short-Term Forecasts in the Context of Seasonal to Interannual Water Resource Management

This paper reviews changes in the use of short-term climate information for water management in China after the 1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin. This devastating flood is now believed to have been caused mainly by the 1997–98 El Niño event. Although the short-term climate forecasts and weather forecasts are considered to be useful in planning for flood prevention activities and for making key decisions during combating floods, the gap between the meteorological services (producers of climate forecasts) and water management agencies (users of climate forecasts) has grown in terms of credibility given to climate forecasting: weather services put more efforts on improving the technology for increasing forecast accuracy, whereas water managers put their efforts and investment into upstream ecological restoration and flood control systems. By reviewing the published and gray (unpublished) literature, we found that assessments of the 1998 Great Flood in the Yangtze River basin really helped the central government and water resources agencies to recognize the weaknesses of the existing flood control system, the mismanagement in the ecological systems, and the need for developing a national water resource management plan to deal with the problems of too much water, too little water, and very polluted water.     

CDM Forestry and the Ultimate Objective of the Climate Convention

In its Article 2, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change policymakers gave themselves a long-term dynamic mandate under uncertainty. Taking the example of forestry activities in developing countries, the present article discusses whether land-based climate change mitigation measures in the context of compensation mechanisms for human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are covered under the UNFCCC's ultimate objective. Both the problem of climate change and human intervention act over long, yet finite timeframes. The article argues for taking a dynamic 100-year timeframe as reference for present-day activities. It concludes that increasing biotic carbon storage is legitimate for measures that contribute to biodiversity conservation, as long as it does not serve as a pretext for neglecting technological change. Among all forestry options, the list of priorities should be avoiding deforestation and devegetation, sustainable forest management, and afforestation. The problem of saturation can be encountered by the combination of forestry with the increased use of wood products and bioenergy. Concluding, the article gathers criteria for forest climate activities in the post-2012 regime. JEL Classification: Q23, Q54; Q57; Q58     

Climate Science and Climate Policy: Improving the Science/Policy Interface

The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.     

Implementing climate variability adaptation at the community level in the Amazon floodplain

The need to design measures for adapting to climate change is increasingly recognized as important and has encouraged research on the role of local ecological knowledge (LEK) in supporting adaptation. Studies of how LEK can help adapt to increasing climate variability remain limited. This article develops an approach through which the process of adaptation can be tracked at a community level. We describe how community residents in the Amazon floodplains incorporate natural hydrologic and ecological processes into their management systems to optimize ecosystem functioning.We describe two case studies where LEK is used as a resource by small-scale fisher-farmers in the Amazon floodplains to adapt to the increasing impacts on their livelihoods generated by changing climate patterns. This article draws on local histories and seeks to identify the critical factors that either facilitate or impede household ability to reduce their vulnerability. We found that the LEK of small fisher-farmers has facilitated the adaptation of a resource management system to optimize production across a broad range of floodplain habitats and conditions. There are, however, significant challenges to operationalizing these approaches, including an absence of systematically collected data on adaptation strategies and outcomes. In addition, local people must be integrated into policymaking processes so their knowledge can contribute to the design of locally appropriate policies for adapting to the impacts of climate related events.     

IPCC第一工作组评估报告分析及建议

2021年8月6日,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一工作组第六次评估报告(AR6)发布,针对气候系统变化科学领域最新研究进展和成果进行了全面、系统的评估. AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确定了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰. 本文总结了历次IPCC评估报告,并从气候现状、未来可能的气候状态、风险评估和区域适应气候变化信息以及减缓未来气候变化4个方面对AR6进行系统梳理. 结果表明:人类活动产生的温室气体对大气、海洋、冰冻圈和生物圈的影响前所未有,引发了全球许多地区的极端天气和气候极端事件. 未来若温室气体排放没有显著减少,到2100年全球地表温度将至少升高2.1 ℃;如若人类影响得到有效改善,在最低排放情景(SSP1-1.9)中,2055年将变为负碳,到21世纪末气温开始再次下降. 减少CH₄等其他污染物可以为全球气候治理争取时间,并改善空气质量. 建议中国应对气候变化应加强基础科学研究,聚焦模式开发和应用及与各工作组之间的衔接,加快短寿命气候强迫(SLCFs)与温室气体协同控制研究,强化应对气候变化政策措施的科技支撑等.