危险品道路安全运输路径优化方法探讨

危险品道路运输量逐年增加,对人类安全健康的危害的风险正在扩大和加深,一旦发生事故,其后果极为严重。笔者从人-机-环境角度分析了危险品道路运输系统的组成要素,基于对运输网、运输风险源、后果影响区域3个层次辨识,分析运输过程中的风险影响因素,提出危险品道路运输路径优化选择的一般方法;并给出危险品道路运输线风险源的可接受个人风险和社会风险标准;探讨了危险品运输约束最优化选线模型。路径优化选择可减少运输沿线影响人员风险和事故概率,优化影响人员风险与运输效率冲突问题,为政府监管部门与危险品运输企业提供了安全管理的基本决策依据。     

Risk analysis system for the transport of hazardous materials

IntroductionIn this paper, a literature study on risk analysis systems for the transport of hazardous materials was conducted.ResultsThe insights that resulted from this literature review have led to the development of a refined approach to map the risk of hazmat transport in Flanders based on historical accident data. The proposed framework allows setting up an overall risk map for hazmat transport by different transport modes. Additionally, a methodology to calculate a local accident risk, which takes local infrastructure parameters and accident data into account, is being introduced. In the presented framework one of the general principles is that the risk of a catastrophic hazmat incident can be divided into two parts, which can both be validated on the basis of accident data: (a) the calculation of the general probability of the occurrence of an accident based on international accident data of transport of hazardous materials – this is the basis for the global risk map, and (b) the calculation of the local probability of the occurrence of an accident based on accident data and infrastructure parameters of the complete available freight transport in Flanders – this is the basis for the local risk map. The ratio between these two results in a locality parameter, which represents the local specific circumstances that can lead to an accident.ConclusionsThis evaluation framework makes it possible to estimate the risks of hazmat transport along a specific route for transport by road, rail, inland navigation and even pipelines.     

氨分解装置中液氨储罐火灾爆炸危险性分析

以某金属处理企业氨分解装置中液氨储罐罐区为例,对液氨泄漏后火灾爆炸事故及其伤害范围进行了研究,用池火、蒸气云爆炸和沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸模型进行计算分析,给出火灾、爆炸事故的人员伤害和财产损失范围。结果表明:围堤堤内池火或罐内池火时,罐区建构筑物内的汽化器、管道等设备会因直接过火或热辐射导致损坏,建筑内人员死亡,但难以波及罐区之外;蒸气云爆炸产生相当于1192.72kgTNT爆炸的当量,爆炸的后果严重,应重点防范,防范的重点为液氨泄漏、点火源;沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸的火球半径56.1m,持续时间8.7s,死亡半径27.2m,其源于储罐受热或系统突然失效,液体瞬时泄漏汽化并遇点火源而发生,具有突发性且后果严重,企业应高度重视并严格储罐及系统的定期检验与校验、密切关注系统的有效运行。     

区域危险品道路运输网络双层反馈规划模型及算法

为通过运输网络规划方式降低区域路网危险品运输风险,根据危险品道路运输网络规划中存在监管者路网规划和运输者路线选择的双层约束特征,在假设监管者网络规划目的为总运输风险最小,运输者选线目的为总运输成本最小的基础上,建立区域危险品道路运输网络双层规划模型。进一步提出能求解得到稳定运输网络的双层反馈式算法,即在传统模型算法中增加稳定性检验和反馈调整算法,进而保证运输者在监管者规划路网中所选路线运输成本最小的同时运输风险也尽可能小。最后,通过实例分析检验模型和算法的有效性。计算结果显示,反馈式算法求得的运输网络更稳定,总运输风险值也比传统模式和算法的低。     

Off-site emergency scenario, a case study from a LPG Bottling Plant

After Bhopal disaster, emergency planning in an industrial area has become inevitable. The off-site emergency plan is an integral part of any major hazard control system. Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) leads to fatal consequences. This paper highlights some salient features of the emergency scenario, which ultimately leads to fireball with enormous pressure wave all around.     

Case study: Assessment on large scale LPG BLEVEs in the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes

After the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, several chemical and oil complexes on the Pacific Ocean shoreline of northeast Japan experienced massive losses. In Chiba, a refinery operated by Cosmo Oil lost 17 LPG storage vessels which were either heavily damaged or totally destroyed by fires and explosions in the refinery. These large vessels ranged in size from 1000 to 5000 m³. The estimated volume of LPG at the time of the incident was between 400 and 5000 m³ for each vessel. Five boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions (BLEVEs) of LPG occurred, resulting in huge fire balls measuring about 500 m in diameter.A BLEVE is defined as the explosive release of expanding vapor and boiling liquid when a container holding a pressure-liquefied gas fails catastrophically. It is thus important to estimate the physical properties of superheated liquids: the thermodynamic and transport properties, the intrinsic limits to superheating and depressurization, and the nature of thermodynamic paths. Also it is hoped to provide better understanding of the vessels designed, manufactured, installed, and operated to reduce or eliminate the probability that a sequence of events will result in BLEVE or loss of primary containment. Knowledge of these matters is still incomplete. The objective of this research is to estimate the significant BLEVE phenomenon in very large scale spherical vessels based on published information in Japan. There are some models predicting BLEVEs. However, it is essential to know if this is true for very large scales such as spheres since validation is usually rare to provide confidence in estimating the superheated liquids behaviors. To this end, comparing with the information on this event, the conditions in the five LPG vessels at the time of the BLEVE were determined in terms of: duration of vessel failure (time to BLEVE); mass fraction in the vessel with time; temperature distribution in the liquid and vapor region and pressure within the vessel (e.g. initial pressure and internal high-speed transient pressure during failure), by means of a computer program AFFTAC Analysis of Fire Effects on Tank Cars, which solves heat conduction, stress and a failure model of the tank, a thermodynamic model of its fluid contents, and a flow model for the lading flowing through the safety relief device. Subsequently, the consequences from the sphere BLEVE, such as the expected fireball diameter and duration and the expected blast overpressure produced by the BLEVE failures, are also subjects of active research. Here the blast using the methods of PHAST and SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering was calculated.Results suggest that methodologies here used gave reasonable estimations for such real and huge BLEVEs in a validated way, which may provide valuable guidance for risk mitigation strategy with regard to LPG facility in design, emergency planning, resiliency, operations, and risk management.     

危险品道路运输风险分级指数法研究

危险品道路运输过程风险影响因素多,随机性和不确定性大,定量风险评价比较复杂,至今没有统一的风险评估模型.为了有效预防危险品运输事故和进行快速风险评估,基于运输危险品本身特性和相关的风险影响因素探讨了运输危险品现实风险分级指数法.该方法由危险品风险分级指数、路线影响因素和安全措施补偿因子3部分构成.危险品风险分级指数由危险品加权平均风险等级和运输危险品量、泄漏点与居民区距离以及危险品扩散因子等级确定.危险品加权平均风险等级涉及其健康危害性、可燃性、化学反应活性以及特殊危险性(氧化性和与水反应性)等级的确定.路线影响因素包含运输道路特征、气象条件、交通状况和影响人员分布4类.安全措施补偿因子为车辆、设备、容器、包装因子,人员素质因子和安全管理因子3类.该方法可对运输危险品的潜在风险进行快速分级,有利于采取有效的安全预防和控制措施,降低运输事故概率和沿线影响人员风险.     

HazMat transportation safety assessment: Analysis of a “Viareggio-like” incident in the Netherlands

Relevant safety issues are associated with hazardous materials transportation, especially when transport routes cross populated areas. On March 6th, 2015, a passenger train collided with the last rail car of a freight train in Tilburg, the Netherlands. The last car contained 50 t of liquefied 1,3-butadiene. As a result of the collision, the last car showed deformation; a small leakage occurred but fortunately with no relevant consequences. However, extremely severe consequences could have happened, such as in the rail accident that occurred in Viareggio, Italy in 2009. In this work, the case of Tilburg was firstly outlined and explored by qualitative methods, in order to identify possible realistic final scenarios that could have happened. Second, the potential consequences of the identified scenarios were estimated through conventional integral model for physical effects evaluation. Comparison with the Viareggio case was also shown in order to support the discussion of the results obtained. Finally, lessons learned after the incident, policy making considerations, and indications for the risk mitigation of hazardous materials transportation are given.     

Choosing vehicle capacity to minimize risk for transporting flammable materials

Highway transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) has been an active area of research with significant efforts in the risk assessment and route selection domains. Almost all these works assume fixed (constant) truck capacity, and hence capacity-based vehicle selection has not been studied. In this paper, we make a first attempt to investigate the impact of different truck capacities on transport risk from moving flammables, such as gasoline or explosives, on a given route. We make use of three scenarios, under risk-neutral and risk-averse assumptions, to develop conditions for preferring a specific vehicle size. A problem instance based in the US is solved to gain managerial insights.     

危险品道路运输选线问题分析

从运输网、运输危险源、影响区域3方面提出了危险品道路运输风险分析的框架.将道路固有特征、气象条件、交通状况和人口密度分布等风险减缓或扩大因素划分为8类,重点讨论了主要路线的自变量和因变量因素.采用双层选线管理模式,深入分析了最小化运输事故概率和暴露人口风险模型.应用权数调整节点标号算法和边线标号算法解决危险品道路运输选线问题.对影响区暴露人口的选取做了深入探讨,考虑了邻接交迭路段暴露人数的误差,对准确计算危险品运输风险有重要价值.     

Risk evaluation in Dutch land-use planning

In Dutch external safety policy, the acceptance of risk for the population in areas surrounding hazardous substances establishments is based on a limit value for individual risk (IR). Additionally, changes to societal risk (SR) must be justified. A specific software program (SAFETI-NL) with the associated Reference Manual Bevi Risk Assessments (RIVM, 2009) is legally required for the calculation of IR and SR. This prescribed “Bevi calculation method” forms the basis for decisions with important consequences for industry, land use planning and the protection of citizens. It is important that the outcome of calculations made with the prescribed method can be relied upon when making decisions about land use planning that affects both industry and population. This is the subject of this paper.The prescribed calculation method has been evaluated by performing a case study. The evaluation focussed on risk modelling of a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) at an LPG filling station, an incident type that plays a significant role in Dutch external safety. The risk modelling of the BLEVE with the prescribed calculation method was found to have a number of serious deficiencies. It is concluded that the prescribed calculation method yields no reliable perspective on the safety of production, use and storage of hazardous substances, nor of possibilities to increase safety.Decision making should not only depend on quantification of IR and SR. Improving the safety-relevance of the prescribed calculation method requires an increase of the number of dimensions of the outcome of risk calculations in order to make feedback possible. It is recommended to incorporate additional, safety-relevant information into planning and decision-making processes. It is envisaged that a more far-reaching change of Dutch QRA practice is needed (medium to long term). In this context, a number of interesting elements have been noticed in decision-making procedures in other EU Member States.     

工艺流程中氨泄漏事故后果分类研究

氨是重要的化工原料和产品,工艺流程中氨主要以氨气、液氨、氨溶液三种状态存在。氨气、液氨、氨溶液理化特性及危险特性不同,可能造成的事故后果类型不同,分别进行三种相态下氨泄漏的事故情景分析。氨气泄漏主要考虑蒸气云爆炸、中毒,液氨泄漏主要考虑沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸、蒸气云爆炸、中毒,氨溶液泄漏主要考虑中毒和腐蚀。运用半球模型和高斯模型计算某尿素企业液氨球罐泄漏的危害范围。半球泄漏模型计算方法较简单,但没有考虑氨本身性质及气象条件等因素;高斯模型计算过程较复杂,其计算结果与风速、大气稳定度等条件相关。该两种方法计算结果对预防氨泄漏事故发生和氨泄漏事故预警均具有一定参考意义,如何提高模拟分析的准确度是今后研究工作的重点。     

易燃易爆危险品道路运输火灾事故应急区域的确定方法

从消防监管的角度给出了道路运输易燃易爆危险品的火灾危险性分级标准,分析了典型泄漏事故后果场景和常见的泄漏规模类型.介绍了美国消防协会NFPA471、应急响应手册ERG2008危险品运输事故初期区域的确定方法,并提出了基于影响半径的危险品道路运输火灾事故现场应急区域和人员疏散范围的确定方法.提出对于易燃易爆危险品道路运输事故应急区域的确定,在初期可优先采用ERG 2008提供的初期隔离距离与防护距离进行先期处置,然后根据运输危险品的类型、运输量和影响区人员总数进行定量评估分析,以确定适当的应急区域范围.依据运输道路场所环境和事故场景特点,快速而合理的确定事故应急隔离区和疏散区,可较科学地应对突发性灾难事故,采取快速应急响应措施,优化消防警力配备.该文研究提出的方法和研究结论,可为危险品道路运输消防应急力量优化调度,现场指挥员采取有效措施开展抢险救援行动提供技术支持,有利于现场事故应急处置和人员快速安全疏散.     

An experimental study on the temperature dependence of CO2 explosive evaporation

The need for transportation and storage of CO₂ in bulk quantities is likely to increase in the near future. The handling of CO₂ on such scale gives rise to a number of technological challenges and safety aspects. The accidental rupture of a vessel containing liquefied CO₂ may lead to a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE). Whether explosive evaporation of liquefied CO₂ is also possible at storage temperatures below the homogeneous nucleation temperature 271 K (?2 °C) is unclear.This article describes the results of 12 experiments with 40 L CO₂ cylinders at various temperatures to investigate the temperature dependence of explosive evaporation. The cylinders were opened with linear shaped charges to simulate a near instantaneous rupture, and blast was measured at various locations. The observed blast could be clearly attributed to explosive evaporation. The results show that below the homogeneous nucleation temperature, BLEVE blast does not disappear abruptly, but instead follows a gradual decay. Predictions with a numerical BLEVE blast model overestimate the observed blast peak overpressure and impulse, but qualitatively show a similar behaviour. The energy lost by the acceleration of the cylinder parts is a possible reason for overestimations of the model.The consequence of the test results is that for accident scenarios with CO₂ at low temperatures a BLEVE should not be neglected in hazard assessments. Future large scale bulk storage will take place at a 10⁵ times larger volume than the cylinders applied in the current small scale experiments. We expect that the blast-reducing effects of a tank shell will disappear at such scale.The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement n° 241381.     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

Route evaluation for hazmat transportation based on total risk - A case of Indian State Highways

Risk-based hazmat transportation route evaluation involves risk calculations taking into consideration the probability of collision related accident occurrence and detailed consequence analysis of various event scenarios. Probabilistic hazmat transportation risk assessment mainly depends on three important factors i.e. accident rate, Average Daily Traffic and population density besides route length which has a definite bearing on it. An effort has been made to estimate the route segment specific (location-specific) accident rate instead of aggregate National or State average values in order to bring specificity into the issue of decision making to avoid routes with higher accident rates. Instead of using default accident rate for different highway types developed with the US data, which are not well-comparable when used in Indian situations; the author used site-specific truck accident data. Subsequently, Loss of Containment (LOC) probabilities and spillage probabilities for different route segments have been computed and compared. Finally, route segment-wise total risk is estimated which is a convenient measure of the average number of persons likely to be exposed from all the possible consequence event scenarios resulting from releases of different hazmats being transported along the studied routes. The present study highlights the route evaluation carried out based on total risk computation, without going through detailed event based consequence analysis on two State Highway routes and one major urban road passing through important industrial corridors of Surat District in western India, to enable routing decisions by local authorities and also for planning emergency mitigation purposes.     

基于主成分分析法的危险货物运输企业安全评价

为更准确地评估危险货物运输企业安全等级以降低其运输风险,提出基于主成分分析法(PCA)的危险货物运输企业BP神经网络安全评价模型;在从人-机-物-环境-管理角度构建危险货物运输企业安全评价指标的基础上,分别利用该模型和其他3种模型对3家实例企业进行仿真评价和对比分析。结果表明,该模型的评价结果与期望值间的相对误差约为0.5%～1.2%,计算精度优于其他模型,且具有计算量小等特点。     

ALOHA在危险品公路运输应急决策支持系统中的应用

危险品道路运输量逐年增加,运输过程中一旦发生泄漏就会给人类安全健康、自然环境和社会带来巨大的危害.提出了危险品运输应急支持系统的设计构想,并从决策支持系统(DSS)中数据库和模型库两方面进行了分析,同时利用ALOHA和ArcGIS初步实现了系统的功能,为应急辅助决策提供一定的指导.     

Applying HAZAN methodology to hazmat transportation risk assessment

As conceptualized and put forward by Kletz, avoiding hazard at first instance is always desirable than trying to protect or manage it. However, there could be certain hazards which may not be possible to be totally eliminated and thus shall be analyzed and assessed in order to either reduce the probability of occurrence or limit the severity of consequences. Trevor's methodologies on HAZOP and hazard analysis (HAZAN) for process hazards are quite straightforward where the hazard is considered as a point source unlike hazmat transportation which is a moving source of hazard. The authors applied the HAZAN techniques to the transportation risk assessment of three different United Nations classes of hazardous materials (hazmats) through important industrial corridors of Surat district in western India that helped local authorities not only to decide on the minimum risk routes to regulate hazmat traffic but also to prepare an effective evacuation and emergency response strategies.     

Developing a chaotic pattern of dynamic risk definition for solving hazardous material routing-locating problem

In the case of determining routes and locations for constructing distribution centers on hazardous materials (Hazmat) transportation, risk and cost are considered as the main attributes for developing mathematical models. Since, Hazmat transport risk may be defined as a chaotic factor, using dynamic risk changes the selected routes and optimized locations for constructing distribution centers.In the present paper, an iterative procedure has been proposed to determine the best routes and optimized locations of distribution centers for transporting hazardous materials based on the concept of chaos theory in which hazmat transport risk is defined as a dynamic variable. A mathematical model has been developed for solving Hazmat routing and locating problems, simultaneously. Daily transport risk, defined as a chaotic variable, is iteratively updated using one-dimensional logistic map equation over the time period (year). An experimental road network, consists of eighty nine nodes and one hundred and three two-way edges, has been selected for analytical process and model validation. Results revealed that although different amounts of risk and cost priorities change optimized locations of distribution centers and their associated supplies, but the most frequent set of optimized centers remains independent. Therefore, the proposed procedure is capable to determine the best routes and optimized locations for distributing hazardous materials. While risk is iteratively updated over a specific time period, results show that the main property of chaos theory known as dependency upon initial condition would not be a serious concern for decision makers who are dealing with Hazmat management.