HYDROLOGIC MODELING USING A SIMULATION LANGUAGE BASED ON QUEUEING THEORY1

ABSTRACT: A novel approach has been developed by applying queueing theory to hydrologic modeling. A queueing situation is characterized by a flow of customers arriving randomly at one or more service facilities. In this case, the customers are represented by water and the service time is the time it takes to move through the soil and over the land. This approach has the potential to be simpler and more efficient than some previously developed models. Another important attribute of queueing theory is its ability to model almost unlimited detail. Many simulation languages based on queueing theory have been developed and tested and are available. Applications of the languages include manufacturing operations, transportation systems, computer systems, financial planning, and health care systems. A model was developed, using a simulation language, to predict runoff hydrographs from storms occurring on small homogeneous watersheds. With continued development, queueing theory could provide an effident, detailed approach to simulating many natural processes.     

Risk-based management of contaminated land in the UK: Lessons for China?

The management of contaminated land is now assuming greater attention in Chinese debates on environmental governance. However, the existing management system appears ineffective as it lacks a clear policy framework and technical basis. In the United Kingdom (UK), contaminated land issues are dealt with through a risk-based approach. This approach emphasizes the application of risk approaches in both technical and integrated management systems. Conceptually, this paper outlines generic issues related to transferring programmes from one place to another. We argue that too much emphasis has been placed on the barriers to effective transfer, rather than focusing on methods of abstracting lessons for application in foreign settings. We then examine the Chinese system and its problems in managing contaminated land before turning to the UK risk-based approach to see what lessons can be learned from it. Four aspects are analyzed and compared: legislative and policy framework; administrative structure and capacity; technical approaches; and incentive strategy. Based on the experience of the UK in practice, some suggestions are then proposed for China in order to improve its management of contaminated land. We suggest that this should include: a focus on the problem sites; development of a risk-based technical approach and integrated management system; the introduction of financial incentives; and the use of planning control as a management strategy. It is believed that a risk-based integrated management approach may be helpful for China to achieve sustainable solutions for contaminated land.     

Energy indicators and sustainable development: The International Energy Agency approach

The International Energy Agency (IEA), together with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), UN‐DESA, Eurostat and the European Environmental Agency, has recently published a comprehensive joint‐agency overview of energy indicators for sustainable development. The IEA's contribution to this publication is based on the IEA energy indicator approach. This approach has been developed and used by the IEA over a number of years. The indicators advocated by the IEA are relatively disaggregated to allow for meaningful analysis of sustainability issues in the energy sector. Using a decomposition approach helps reveal the causal links between human/economic driving forces, energy use and emissions. This article presents examples of IEA's work with indicators and an overview of the methodology used, including an explanation of the link to sustainable development. It also provides an example of a simplified indicator analysis of India, to illustrate the importance of improved data systems in developing indicators that can provide meaningful policy analysis.     

Toward energy and livelihoods security in Africa: Smallholder production and processing of bioenergy as a strategy

The past few years have seen a phenomenal rise in the production and consumption of biofuels and biodiesel at the global level. This development is of special significance to Africa, where about 550 million people (75% of the total population in Sub‐Saharan Africa) depend on traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, cow dung, etc.) and lack access to electricity or any kind of modern energy service. Derived from plants and agricultural crops, biofuels and biodiesel represent modern forms of bioenergy and more efficient use of biomass energy. Beyond efficiency, modern bioenergy offers tremendous opportunities to meet growing household energy demands, increase income, reduce poverty, and mitigate environmental degradation. In the African setting, energy and livelihoods security are indeed inseparable. This paper argues economic, social, and environmental benefits of modern bioenergy can be realized through a strategy that centres on smallholder production and processing schemes and pursuit of a livelihood approach to energy development. Such a scheme opens up new domestic markets, generates new cash incomes, improves social wellbeing, enhances new technology adoption, and lays the ground for rural economic transformation and sustainable land use. The paper concludes by underlining the vital importance of considering sound property rights and strategic planning of sustainable development as tools for sustainable energy and livelihoods security.     

Building resilience to drought in desertification-prone savannas in Sub-Saharan Africa: The water perspective

Securing sustainable livelihood conditions and reducing the risk of outmigration in savanna ecosystems hosted in the tropical semiarid regions is of fundamental importance for the future of humanity in general. Although precipitation in tropical drylands, or savannas, is generally more significant than one might expect, these regions are subject to considerable rainfall variability which causes frequent periods of water deficiency. This paper addresses the twin problems of “drought and desertification” from a water perspective, focusing on the soil moisture (green water) and plant water uptake deficiencies. It makes a clear distinction between long‐term climate change, meteorological drought, and agricultural droughts and dry spells caused by rainfall variability and land degradation. It then formulates recommendations to better cope with and to build resilience to droughts and dry spells. Coping with desertification requires a new conceptual framework based on green‐blue water resources to identify hydrological opportunities in a sea of constraints. This paper proposes an integrated land/water approach to desertification where ecosystem management supports agricultural development to build social‐ecological resilience to droughts and dry spells. This approach is based on the premise that to combat desertification, focus should shift from reducing trends of land degradation in agricultural systems to water resource management in savannas and to landscape‐wide ecosystem management.     

A bottom-up approach towards the assessment of ecological footprints and biocapacity

The concept of ecological footprint (EF) assessment embeds into the broader concept of sustainable development, relating directly to quality of life and maintaining the natural constraints of the global ecosystem. EFs relate to the balance between the Earth's biocapacity and consumption, measured as land equivalence in global hectares per capita. The majority of studies relating to EF assessments have adopted a top-down methodology in order to assess national and regional EFs. Furthermore, these studies are mainly based upon national accounts of input, output and trade; information which is readily available for most countries, and the EFs usually require an assessment of equivalent land area per capita to maintain the current levels of consumption. Since its inception in the mid-1990s, the EF methodology has been refined and has been widely adopted by many countries and governments as a tool to measure biocapacity, or, the consumption of resources. In this paper, we present a bottom-up methodology to measure the EF of a rural region (near Chennai) in southern India. Advantages and limitations of this approach are then discussed through comparisons with regional and national assessments.     

A conceptual framework of agricultural land use planning with BMP for integrated watershed management

Land use planning is an important element of the integrated watershed management approach. It not only influences the environmental processes such as soil and stream bed erosion, sediment and nutrient concentrations in streams, quality of surface and ground waters in a watershed, but also affects social and economic development in that region. Although its importance in achieving sustainable development has long been recognized, a land use planning methodology based on a systems approach involving realistic computational modeling and meta-heuristic optimization is still lacking in the current practice of integrated watershed management. The present study proposes a new approach which attempts to combine computational modeling of upland watershed processes, fluvial processes and modern heuristic optimization techniques to address the water-land use interrelationship in its full complexity. The best land use allocation is decided by a multi-objective function that minimizes sediment yields and nutrient concentrations as well as the total operation/implementation cost, while the water quality and the production benefits from agricultural exploitation are maximized. The proposed optimization strategy considers also the preferences of land owners. The runoff model AnnAGNPS (developed by USDA), and the channel network model CCHE1D (developed by NCCHE), are linked together to simulate sediment/pollutant transport process at watershed scale based on any assigned land use combination. The greedy randomized adaptive Tabu search heuristic is used to flip the land use options for finding an optimum combination of land use allocations. The approach is demonstrated by applying it to a demonstrative case study involving USDA Goodwin Creek experimental watershed located in northern Mississippi. The results show the improvement of the tradeoff between benefits and costs for the watershed, after implementing the proposed optimal land use planning.     

Toward an improved legislative framework for China's land degradation control

The Chinese government has recently been attaching increasing importance to the application of effective legal tools to tackle land degradation (LD) issues. Based on the concept of sustainable development, China began developing and reaping the benefits of environmental and natural resources legislation including LD control regulations in the 1990s. In the past three years, some central‐western provinces in China have been implementing a “ People's Republic of China/Global Environment Facility (PRC/GEF ) Partnership on LD Control of Dryland Ecosystems”, which is based on an integrated ecosystem management (IEM) approach. IEM is designed to achieve a balanced, scientific and participatory approach to natural resources management, which creates the potential to improve the quality of Chinese environmental law and policy procedures. The paper studies the existing Chinese national laws and regulations pertinent to LD control within 9 areas covering land, desertification, soil erosion, grassland, forest, water, agriculture, wild animals and plants, and environment protection in detail, against IEM principles and basic legal elements. The main objective is to identify problems and provide feasible solutions and recommendations for the improvement of the existing laws and regulations. The authors conclude that the development of an improved national legislative framework is essential if LD control is to be successfully achieved. The paper is partly based on Component 1 — Improving Policies, Laws and Regulations for Land Degradation Control under PRC/GEF Partnership on Land Degradation in Dryland Ecosystems (TA 4357).     

Linking carbon sequestration science with local sustainability: an integrated assessment approach

This paper introduces an integrated assessment (IA) approach for a Canada-China joint research project that linked forest carbon sequestration, forest resource management, and local sustainability enhancement. The purpose of the IA was to improve the measurement of carbon in different land uses and vegetation covers, as well as to direct decision makers to those land uses or options as an CO₂ emission reduction strategy while supporting rural sustainable development. In this connection, three questions are addressed in this paper:

1)

How will forestry carbon sequestration land use policies affect regional sustainability prospects in rural China?     

A data mining approach to simulating farmers' crop choices for integrated water resources management

Water and land resources in Thailand are increasingly under pressure from development. In particular, there are many resource conflicts associated with agricultural production in northern Thailand. Communities in these areas are significantly constrained in the land and water management decisions they are able to make. This paper describes the application of a data mining approach to describing and simulating farmers' decision rules in a catchment in northern Thailand. This approach is being applied to simulate social, economic and biophysical constraints on farmers' decisions in these areas as part of an integrated water management model.     

A Systemic Approach to Scoping of Factors Influencing More Sustainable Land Use in Herefordshire

Defining and putting into practice sustainable land use is a complex, systemic problem. Systems models and techniques were used in a study of Herefordshire to clarify the situation and identify the potential for a more locally focused, learning-based approach to land use. Issues included: (i) uncertainty about the boundary of a 'system of sustainable Herefordshire land use'; (ii) the complexity of economic flows in the county and the absence of some critical data; (iii) the importance of the Herefordshire landscape to tourism and the role of agriculture as a determinant of the state of that landscape; (iv) weakness of the institutional linkage between tourism and agriculture; (v) the current lack of inclusion of many relevant stakeholders in concerted action. Factors favouring a learning approach included a strong local identity, local food-related developments, and educational initiatives. Barriers to such an approach included questions of power and landholding, government policies, and attitudes and skills within organizations. These findings are considered in relation to the wider debate over approaches to sustainability.     

The Political Economy of Land Grabs in Malawi: Investigating the Contribution of Limphasa Sugar Corporation to Rural Development

Though a recent phenomenon, land grabs have generated considerable debate that remains highly polarized. In this debate, one view presents land deals as a path to sustainable and transformative rural development through capital accumulation, infrastructural development, technology transfer, and job creation while the alternative view sees land grabs as a new wave of neo-colonization, exploitation, and domination. The underlying argument, at least theoretically, is that international land deals unlock the much needed capital to accelerate the achievement of sustainable and transformative rural development in developing countries. It is against this backdrop that this paper examines the contribution of large scale land deals in Malawi to rural development by employing the political economy perspective using the Limphasa Sugar Corporation as a case study with particular focus on the nature and interest of the actors involved; the legal framework supporting large scale land deals; major individual and community benefits; and the extent to which these large land deals can indeed bring about sustainable and transformative rural development. The findings of this article demonstrate that large scale land deals present short term benefits to local communities such as capital for rural development; technology transfer and job creation in exchange for the priceless economic and social capital that local people depend upon; destruction of local social systems; deepening of local communities’ vulnerability to economic shocks; and the entrenchment of community dependence that may in the long run result in social and political unrest.     

A Systemic Approach to Scoping of Factors Influencing More Sustainable Land Use in Herefordshire

Abstract

Defining and putting into practice sustainable land use is a complex, systemic problem. Systems models and techniques were used in a study of Herefordshire to clarify the situation and identify the potential for a more locally focused, learning-based approach to land use. Issues included: (i) uncertainty about the boundary of a ‘system of sustainable Herefordshire land use’; (ii) the complexity of economic flows in the county and the absence of some critical data; (iii) the importance of the Herefordshire landscape to tourism and the role of agriculture as a determinant of the state of that landscape; (iv) weakness of the institutional linkage between tourism and agriculture; (v) the current lack of inclusion of many relevant stakeholders in concerted action. Factors favouring a learning approach included a strong local identity, local food-related developments, and educational initiatives. Barriers to such an approach included questions of power and landholding, government policies, and attitudes and skills within organizations. These findings are considered in relation to the wider debate over approaches to sustainability.     

Interpreting science in the real world for sustainable land application

Today's land application practices are designed to effectively treat wastes, and have evolved from earlier practices that centered on cheap disposal with less regard for environmental protection. The major objectives of this paper are to (i) review how current land application practices, and our understanding of them, have evolved over time and (ii) explore how science is used (and sometimes misused or ignored) in the development of design, regulation, and management of sustainable land application. Land treatment technologies have been used effectively for the treatment and recycling of many types of wastewaters and organic residuals for many years. Extensive research and demonstration efforts, as well as experience with pilot- and field-scale projects, have provided the information about soil reactions with contaminants in wastewater and organic residuals needed to design and operate sustainable land application projects. Still, systematic research programs are as important today as ever to support studies aimed at producing information on how soil-based treatment and recycling systems work, to address new areas of concerns as they arise, and continue to improve the overall design, performance, and reliability of land application systems as sustainable soil treatment and recycling systems.     

The contribution of forums to rural sustainable development: a preliminary evaluation

This paper assesses the contribution that forums have made in progressing sustainable land use policies and decisions within rural Wales. The examples of Cardigan Bay Forum and Wales Rural Forum are used to show how sustainability has been addressed within their overall agendas. The contemporary debate about sustainable development has provoked a new organizational response with forums visible in many activities and initiatives. The traditional adversarial approach between groups has been replaced by a more sophisticated and complex assemblage of bodies that together create the forum ideal. Consensus, partnership and mutual understanding form the language of this new discourse. However, their presence raises certain key questions as to their role, purpose, representativeness and value in rural resource management debates. These questions have not been considered in the literature, and with the increasing proliferation of forums generally, there is a need to assess whether they are bringing about real and effective change. The two examples reveal clear evidence of forums as agents of change. However, there is considerable tension within both forums, within a climate of financial and membership vulnerability, between the need for involving all legitimate interests and the need to achieve meaningful outcomes for individual members. Such tension goes to the heart of who the two forums actually represent and their resulting actions. The way that these tensions have been reconciled lie at the heart of the forum phenomenon.1998 Academic Press     

基于元胞自动机和多智能主体的房屋选择模型

近几年,随着经济发展和城市化的加快,居民对住宅要求越来越高,而目前的房屋选择模型在实践运用过程中或多或少受到某一方面的限制,不能有效地模拟居民对房屋选择的各种爱好.在前人提出的种种模型的基础上,结合元胞自动机和多智能主体系统,提出了一种模拟房屋选择的动态综合仿真模型.通过反复验证,该模型有较强的实用性.     

Spatial systems approach to sustainable development: A conceptual framework

Even though “sustainable development” seems to have emerged as the development paradigm of the 1990s, a great deal of vagueness still surrounds the meaning, definition, and theoretical underpinnings of the concept. There is also a general lack of emphasis on the spatial dimension of sustainable development when developing relevant conceptual or environmental accounting frameworks. In clarifying the concept, this article proposes a definition that explicitly incorporates the temporal as well as the spatial dimension of sustainability. It also develops a logically consistent conceptual framework for the analysis and evaluation of sustainable development, following a spatial systems approach. Five interconnected aspatial subsystems or subsets of a spatial system are identified and their respective operational dimensions discussed. A proposed composite index calleddegree of stainable development (DSD) and its five component indicators are also outlined. The difficulties involved in operationalizing the DSD measure and the conceptual framework are noted, and the various tasks that need to be undertaken in this regard are specified. It is concluded that future research utilizing the proposed conceptual framework should not only foster the development of appropriate methodologies for the comparative evaluation of sustainable development at global, national, or regional scales, but also offer insights to appropriate decision makers at various levels regarding available options and alternative actions for the healthy development of their respective societies.     

Analysis of arable land loss and its impact on rural sustainability in Southern Jiangsu Province of China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in southern Jiangsu Province have consumed a huge amount of arable land. Through comparative analysis of land cover maps derived from TM images in 1990, 2000 and 2006, we identified the trend of arable land loss. It is found that most arable land is lost to urbanization and rural settlements development. Urban settlements, rural settlements, and industrial park-mine-transport land increased, respectively, by 87 997 ha (174.65%), 81 041 ha (104.52%), and 12 692 ha (397.99%) from 1990 to 2006. Most of the source (e.g., change from) land covers are rice paddy fields and dryland. These two covers contributed to newly urbanized areas by 37.12% and 73.52% during 1990–2000, and 46.39% and 38.86% during 2000–2006. However, the loss of arable land is weakly correlated with ecological service value, per capita net income of farmers, but positively with grain yield for some counties. Most areas in the study site have a low arable land depletion rate and a high potential for sustainable development. More attention should be directed at those counties that have a high depletion rate but a low potential for sustainable development. Rural settlements should be controlled and rationalized through legislative measures to achieve harmonious development between urban and rural areas, and sustainable development for rural areas with a minimal impact on the ecoenvironment.     

Designing sustainable and economically attractive brownfield revitalization options using an integrated assessment model

We describe the development of an integrated assessment model which evaluates redevelopment options of large contaminated brownfields and we present the application of the model in a case study. Aiming to support efficient and sustainable revitalization and communication between stakeholders, the presented assessment model integrates three pinnacles of brownfield revitalization: (i) subsurface remediation and site preparation costs, (ii) market-oriented economic appraisal, and (iii) the expected contribution of planned future land use to sustainable community and regional development. For the assessment, focus is set on the early stage of the brownfield redevelopment process, which is characterized by limited data availability and by flexibility in land use planning and development scope. At this stage, revealing the consequences of adjustments and alterations in planning options can foster efficiency in communication between the involved parties and thereby facilitates the brownfield revitalization process. Results from the case-study application indicate that the integrated assessment provides help in the identification of land use options beneficial in both a sustainable and an economical sense. For the study site it is shown on one hand that brownfield redevelopment is not automatically in line with sustainable regional development, and on the other hand it is demonstrated that additional contributions to sustainability are not intrinsically tied to increased costs.     

基于能值生态足迹的海岛可持续性评估——以舟山为例

基于能值理论,结合生态足迹方法,构建能值生态赤字/盈余、渔业足迹强度(D)、社会发展压力指数(I)和经济协调指数(Q)参数评价海岛可持续性,选取典型海岛城市浙江省舟山市作为案例研究。结果显示:2003—2017年舟山能值足迹、能值承载力均呈上升趋势;人均能值生态足迹共增加15.78 hm²,增幅为63.26%;人均能值承载力增加5.20×10² hm²,增幅为82.86%;其中,化石能源用地能值足迹增加最多,社会经济承载力增加最多,而自然承载力却有所下降。能值生态赤字/盈余和经济协调指数不能完全反映区域可持续性,区域渔业足迹强度的不断增加表明当前的渔业经济模式不满足可持续发展要求,社会发展压力指数增大也进一步表明舟山的发展状况偏离了可持续性的轨道。