Advancing objectives-based,integrated ocean management through marine spatial planning: current and future directions on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia,Canada

The national legislative and policy context for integrated ocean management in Canada is provided by the Oceans Act (1996) and the supporting policy statement, Canada’s Oceans Strategy. Under the Oceans Act, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) is the lead federal authority for ocean affairs and is charged with leading and facilitating the development and implementation of integrated management plans for all marine waters. Integrated management efforts in Canada are being undertaken through an area-based approach that enables marine planning, management and decision making to occur at appropriate spatial scales, from regional to site-specific. This article focuses on the Eastern Scotian Shelf Integrated Management (ESSIM) process, an offshore-focused effort to develop an integrated ocean management plan for a large portion of the Scotian Shelf, off Nova Scotia. The resulting Eastern Scotian Shelf Integrated Ocean Management Plan (the ESSIM plan) has been developed through a collaborative process involving all interested and affected government departments and ocean stakeholders, and provides an objectives-based approach to ocean management. The ESSIM plan contains a set of long-term, overarching goals for collaborative governance and integrated management, sustainable human use, and healthy ecosystems. These goals are supported by more specific objectives that express desired outcomes and conditions for the marine region. The objectives-based approach seeks to ensure that interrelationships among ecosystem and human use objectives are recognized and reflected in the identification of management strategies and supporting actions. This article considers the role of marine spatial planning within the context of the integrated ocean management process underway for the Scotian Shelf. The policy and management context for integrated ocean management in Canada is briefly described and a summary of the ESSIM plan is provided. The current and potential role for marine spatial planning in implementing the objectives and strategies of the ESSIM plan is highlighted using examples related to multiple ocean use and marine conservation and protected area planning. The article concludes by drawing out key lessons learned to date through the ESSIM process for marine spatial planning and looks to the future in terms of the development of tools and approaches for this integral aspect of integrated ocean management.     

Increased spatial variance accompanies reorganization of two continental shelf ecosystems

Phase transitions between alternate stable states in marine ecosystems lead to disruptive changes in ecosystem services, especially fisheries productivity. We used trawl survey data spanning phase transitions in the North Pacific (Gulf of Alaska) and the North Atlantic (Scotian Shelf) to test for increases in ecosystem variability that might provide early warning of such transitions. In both time series, elevated spatial variability in a measure of community composition (ratio of cod [Gadus sp.] abundance to prey abundance) accompanied transitions between ecosystem states, and variability was negatively correlated with distance from the ecosystem transition point. In the Gulf of Alaska, where the phase transition was apparently the result of a sudden perturbation (climate regime shift), variance increased one year before the transition in mean state occurred. On the Scotian Shelf, where ecosystem reorganization was the result of persistent overfishing, a significant increase in variance occurred three years before the transition in mean state was detected. However, we could not reject the alternate explanation that increased variance may also have simply been inherent to the final stable state in that ecosystem. Increased variance has been previously observed around transition points in models, but rarely in real ecosystems, and our results demonstrate the possible management value in tracking the variance of key parameters in exploited ecosystems.     

Geospatial variability of krill and top predators within an Antarctic submarine canyon system

The spatial distribution patterns of krill, seabirds (penguin, petrel and albatross), fur seals and baleen whales were mapped in nearshore waters (<50 km from land) to investigate their habitat selection within two adjacent submarine canyons near Livingston Island, Antarctica. Three shipboard surveys were conducted (February 2005–2007), and an echosounder was used to measure the distribution and abundance of krill while simultaneously conducting visual surveys to map seabird and marine mammals. Using a multispecies approach, we test the hypothesis that spatial organization of krill and top predators co-vary according to fine-scale changes in bathymetry in the nearshore marine environment. GAMs are used to examine the effect of sea depth, slope and distance to isobaths on the spatial distribution and abundance of krill and predators. Spatial distribution patterns of krill and predators relate to fine-scale (1–10 km) changes in bathymetry and exhibit cross-shelf gradients in abundance. Krill were concentrated along the shelf-break and abundant within both submarine canyons. Predators exhibited different preferences for locations within the submarine canyon system that relates to their foraging behavior. Penguins concentrated closer to shore and within the head of the east submarine canyon immediately adjacent to a breeding colony. Whales were also concentrated over the head of the east canyon (overlapping with penguins), whereas albatrosses and fur seals were concentrated in the west canyon. Fur seals also showed preference for steep slopes and were concentrated along the shelf-break. Petrels exhibited peaks in abundance throughout both submarine canyons. Owing to their orientation, size and proximity to the coastline, submarine canyons provide important habitat heterogeneity for krill and a variety of predators. This study highlights the multispecies approach for studying spatial ecology of top predators and krill and has implications for marine spatial management of the Scotia Sea.     

From science to policy—a geostatistical approach to identifying potential areas for cetacean conservation: a case study of bottlenose dolphins in the Pelagos sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)

Cetaceans are top-level predators that serve as sentinels of the health and status of lower trophic levels in the marine ecosystem. For this reason they attract significant attention in marine conservation planning and often have been used to promote designation of reserve areas in many countries (e.g., Ligurian Sea, Moray Firth, Hawaiian Islands, The Gully, Wadden Sea, Banks Peninsula, and Golfo San José). Many policies are designed to protect cetaceans. For example, the Habitat Directive requires member states to select, designate, and protect sites that support certain natural habitats or species, such as the bottlenose dolphin, as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) that aim to create a network of protected areas across the European Union known as Natura 2000. The boundaries of protected areas for cetacean species must be defined for management purposes. In recent years, many techniques have been developed to define the distribution of cetaceans in relation to habitat preferences. Although these models can provide an understanding of the ecological processes that determine species distribution, their application requires prior knowledge of the variables that should be included in the model, the interactions among these variables, and their effects on species distribution. Thus, the lack of available data in understudied areas precludes the application of these types of models. As an alternative, we describe a geostatistical approach to identifying areas that potentially should be designated as marine protected areas for cetaceans. We illustrate the application of the kriging algorithm to the bottlenose dolphin population that resides in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. The data derived from a 7-year survey were used. The encounter rate is the only variable required for this method, making it very easy to apply. The resulting georeferenced and high resolution map includes areas most visited by bottlenose dolphins, which are called core areas. Core areas are helpful for establishing the boundaries of marine reserves for the protection of the species. The approach described herein is accurate, precise, unbiased, replicable to all highly mobile species and easy to understand by both researchers and policy makers.     

Comparison of Marine and Terrestrial Protected Areas under Federal Jurisdiction in the United States

Abstract: There is a significant disparity in the protection of terrestrial and marine environments in the United States. Despite the considerable literature dedicated to the subject of protected areas, both terrestrial and marine, in the United States, we are not aware of work explicitly describing this dichotomy. We compared marine and terrestrial areas under federal jurisdiction to provide a quantitative assessment of the differences between the conservation of land and sea in the United States. Specifically, we compared national marine sanctuaries (including sanctuary preservation areas and ecological reserves) with national parks, national forests, and national wildlife refuges (including national wilderness preservation areas). Our results suggest that marine sanctuaries are fewer in number, smaller in total area, and smaller in percentage of area covered than are terrestrial protected areas.     

Effects of temperature on morphological landmarks critical to growth and survival in larval Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

The morphology and function of structures important to energy acquisition were studied from spawning to the stage of transformation of larva to pelagic juvenile in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua L., from December 1991 to July 1992. Fertilized eggs produced by adult fish from two genetically discrete populations (Newfoundland and Scotian Shelf) were raised under similar conditions in the laboratory at temperatures of 5 and 10°C. Subsamples of larvae were removed from cultures daily for 10 d, and then less frequently, and fixed for light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy. Nine functional morphological landmarks important to feeding, respiration and locomotion were chosen from observation of 280 ind. These landmarks defined 12 major developmental stages, from hatching to the pelagic juvenile stage. One of the feeding landmarks, intestinal stage, varied as a function of age and size and the variance in development was higher at 10°C than at 5°C; Newfoundland larvae developed more complex intestines than did Scotian Shelf larvae. In addition, Newfoundland larvae had significantly higher growth rates than those of Scotian Shelf larvae. Despite the higher growth rates and greater structural complexity of the intestine in Newfoundland larvae, the rate of yolk utilization was not significantly different between Newfoundland and Scotian Shelf larvae. Staging of respiratory landmarks showed that the gill arches were probably used preferentially in feeding while respiration was cutaneous. The gills, operculum and gill rakers developed late in larval life and accompanied the transition from cutaneous to branchial respiration. In the yolk-sac period, development of feeding and respiratory structures may be largely genetically controlled. During exogenous feeding, extrinsic factors also become important, as shown by the size and age-independent variation in intestinal development of larval cod raised at different temperatures.     

Movements,environmental associations,and presumed spawning locations of Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus) in the northwest Atlantic determined using archival satellite pop-up tags

Large Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus) off the eastern coast of Canada were tagged with pop-up satellite archival transmission tags (N = 17) to track movements, determine ambient depth and temperature, and infer spawning activity. Many halibut showed seasonal movements from deepwater slope areas in fall and winter to shallower feeding grounds on the Scotian Shelf and Grand Banks in summer. Halibut depths ranged between 0 and 1,640 m. Mean temperature of occupation was 4.7 °C. Multiple short-term vertical ascents from a consistent baseline depth, characterized as spawning rises, were identified in seven of the tagged halibut south of the Grand Banks. All presumed spawning rises occurred in multiples of 2–6 events at 2- to 9-day intervals between October and January, spanning an average vertical extent of 50–100 m at depths of about 800–1,000 m. Given the direction and velocity of the slope water currents and the duration of the pelagic stage, the calculated 300–500 km drift of the eggs and larvae would take them onto the Scotian Shelf, as well as into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Therefore, the location of the presumed spawning grounds is consistent with expectations based on migration compensation theory, the northeasterly migratory patterns of the juveniles, the relatively static distribution of the adults off southern Newfoundland, and the prevailing currents at depth.     

Fish production and the marine ecosystems of the Scotian Shelf,eastern Canada

Fishery production and food webs have been studied on the Scotian Shelf and upper continental slope along a transect running 270 km SE of Halifax, Canada. The area (TCNAF Division 4W) supports a fishery of roughly 0.15x10⁶ metric tons. Overall primary production of the shelf waters is 102 g C m^-2 year^-1 and of the slope wacers about 128 g C m^-2 year^-1. Demersal fish production (average 4.1 kcal m^-2 year^-1) is highest over the shelf and declines in an offshore direction, while pelagic fish production (average 16 kcal m^-2 year^-1) is highest over the slope and declines in an inshore direction. Hypothetical food webs of these two intergrading ecosystems have been constructed, based on data for primary production, fish catches, and the biomasses of zooplankton and macrobenthos. These lead us to suggest that there are basic differences in food chains and efficiencies between the two ecosystems that account for their differences in production. Although primary production is 17% higher on an average on the Nova Scotian transect than in the North Sea, the apparent zooplankton and macrobenthos production is 31% lower and macrobenthos production may also be lower. Overall fish catch from the Scotian Shelf and slope is about 47% lower per unit area than the catch in the North Sea, despite the fact that the demersal catches are identical. This is accounted for by a much lower overall pelagic catch from the Nova Scotian area, centered in a region that is small compared to the total area. Fish production in different regions cannot be predicted merely on the basis of differences in level of primary production, but must take into account differences in the structure of the ecosystems.     

Foraging behavior and habitat use by the Southern Giant Petrel on the Patagonian Shelf

We explored the at-sea behavior and marine habitat use of the Southern Giant Petrel breeding in Patagonia, Argentina by means of satellite telemetry. Adult breeders showed a wide distribution over the Patagonian Shelf, using 74% of its surface. The maximum distance traveled from the colonies was 683 km, but on average birds moved no more than 200 km further away from their colony. Important marine areas were located in the shelf break, middle shelf and coastal waters. Areas of activity by sex overlap between 35 and 94%. Females foraged primarily away from the coast and males mainly on coastal areas. Both sexes were capable of flying up to 4,000 km but most of the foraging trips were of less than 200 km. Our results emphasize the importance of the Patagonian Shelf as foraging habitat for pelagic seabirds and contribute to international efforts to identify and protect a network of marine sites.     

Striking a Balance between Biodiversity Conservation and Socioeconomic Viability in the Design of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: The establishment of marine protected areas is often viewed as a conflict between conservation and fishing. We considered consumptive and nonconsumptive interests of multiple stakeholders (i.e., fishers, scuba divers, conservationists, managers, scientists) in the systematic design of a network of marine protected areas along California's central coast in the context of the Marine Life Protection Act Initiative. With advice from managers, administrators, and scientists, a representative group of stakeholders defined biodiversity conservation and socioeconomic goals that accommodated social needs and conserved marine ecosystems, consistent with legal requirements. To satisfy biodiversity goals, we targeted 11 marine habitats across 5 depth zones, areas of high species diversity, and areas containing species of special status. We minimized adverse socioeconomic impacts by minimizing negative effects on fishers. We included fine‐scale fishing data from the recreational and commercial fishing sectors across 24 fisheries. Protected areas designed with consideration of commercial and recreational fisheries reduced potential impact to the fisheries approximately 21% more than protected areas designed without consideration of fishing effort and resulted in a small increase in the total area protected (approximately 3.4%). We incorporated confidential fishing data without revealing the identity of specific fisheries or individual fishing grounds. We sited a portion of the protected areas near land parks, marine laboratories, and scientific monitoring sites to address nonconsumptive socioeconomic goals. Our results show that a stakeholder‐driven design process can use systematic conservation‐planning methods to successfully produce options for network design that satisfy multiple conservation and socioeconomic objectives. Marine protected areas that incorporate multiple stakeholder interests without compromising biodiversity conservation goals are more likely to protect marine ecosystems.     

Protected species use of a coastal marine migratory corridor connecting marine protected areas

The establishment of protected corridors linking the breeding and foraging grounds of many migratory species remains deficient, particularly in the world’s oceans. For example, Australia has recently established a network of Commonwealth Marine Reserves, supplementing existing State reserves, to protect a wide range of resident and migratory marine species; however, the routes used by mobile species to access these sites are often unknown. The flatback marine turtle (Natator depressus) is endemic to the continental shelf of Australia, yet information is not available about how this species uses the marine area. We used a geospatial approach to delineate a coastal corridor from 73 adult female flatback postnesting migratory tracks from four rookeries along the north-west coast of Australia. A core corridor of 1,150 km length and 30,800 km² area was defined, of which 52 % fell within 11 reserves, leaving 48 % (of equivalent size to several Commonwealth Reserves) of the corridor outside of the reserve network. Despite limited data being available for other marine wildlife in this region, humpback whale migratory tracks overlapped with 96 % of the core corridor, while the tracks of three other species overlapped by 5–10 % (blue whales, olive ridley turtles, whale sharks). The overlap in the distribution ranges of at least 20 other marine vertebrates (dugong, cetaceans, marine turtles, sea snakes, crocodiles, sharks) with the corridor also imply potential use. In conclusion, this study provides valuable information towards proposing new locations requiring protection, as well as identifying high-priority network linkages between existing marine protected areas.     

Accounting for enforcement costs in the spatial allocation of marine zones

Marine fish stocks are in many cases extracted above sustainable levels, but they may be protected through restricted‐use zoning systems. The effectiveness of these systems typically depends on support from coastal fishing communities. High management costs including those of enforcement may, however, deter fishers from supporting marine management. We incorporated enforcement costs into a spatial optimization model that identified how conservation targets can be met while maximizing fishers’ revenue. Our model identified the optimal allocation of the study area among different zones: no‐take, territorial user rights for fisheries (TURFs), or open access. The analysis demonstrated that enforcing no‐take and TURF zones incurs a cost, but results in higher species abundance by preventing poaching and overfishing. We analyzed how different enforcement scenarios affected fishers’ revenue. Fisher revenue was approximately 50% higher when territorial user rights were enforced than when they were not. The model preferentially allocated area to the enforced‐TURF zone over other zones, demonstrating that the financial benefits of enforcement (derived from higher species abundance) exceeded the costs. These findings were robust to increases in enforcement costs but sensitive to changes in species’ market price. We also found that revenue under the existing zoning regime in the study area was 13–30% lower than under an optimal solution. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for both the benefits and costs of enforcement in marine conservation, particularly when incurred by fishers. Justificación de los Costos de Aplicación en la Asignación Espacial de Zonas Marinas     

Effects of seascape connectivity on reserve performance along exposed coastlines

Seascape connectivity (landscape connectivity in the sea) can modify reserve performance in low-energy marine ecosystems (e.g., coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass), but it is not clear whether similar spatial linkages also shape reserve effectiveness on high-energy, exposed coastlines. We used the surf zones of ocean beaches in eastern Australia as a model system to test how seascape connectivity and reserve attributes combine to shape conservation outcomes. Spatial patterns in fish assemblages were measured using baited remote underwater video stations in 12 marine reserves and 15 fished beaches across 2000 km of exposed coastline. Reserve performance was shaped by both the characteristics of reserves and the spatial properties of the coastal seascapes in which reserves were embedded. Number of fish species and abundance of harvested fishes were highest in surf-zone reserves that encompassed >1.5 km of the surf zone; were located < 100 m to rocky headlands; and included pocket beaches in a heterogeneous seascape. Conservation outcomes for exposed coastlines may, therefore, be enhanced by prioritizing sufficiently large areas of seascapes that are strongly linked to abutting complementary habitats. Our findings have broader implications for coastal conservation planning. Empirical data to describe how the ecological features of high-energy shorelines influence conservation outcomes are lacking, and we suggest that seascape connectivity may have similar ecological effects on reserve performance on both sheltered and exposed coastlines.     

Efficacy of a Voluntary Area to Be Avoided to Reduce Risk of Lethal Vessel Strikes to Endangered Whales

Abstract: Ocean‐going vessels pose a threat to large whales worldwide and are responsible for the majority of reported deaths diagnosed among endangered North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis). Various conservation policies have been implemented to reduce vessel‐strike mortality in this species. The International Maritime Organization adopted the Roseway Basin Area to be avoided on the Scotian Shelf as a voluntary conservation initiative to reduce the risk of lethal vessel strikes to right whales. We initiated the Vessel Avoidance & Conservation Area Transit Experiment to evaluate the efficacy of this initiative because the effectiveness of the avoidance scheme in reducing risk without the imposition of vessel‐speed restrictions depends entirely on vessel‐operator compliance. Using a network of automatic identification system receivers, we collected static, dynamic, and voyage‐related vessel data in near real time from the Roseway Basin region for 12 months before and 6 months after the implementation of the area to be avoided. Using pre‐ and post‐implementation vessel navigation and speed data, along with right whale sightings per unit effort data, all resolved at 3′N latitude by 3′W longitude, we estimated the post‐implementation change in risk of lethal vessel strikes. Estimates of vessel‐operator voluntary compliance ranged from 57% to 87% and stabilized at 71% within the first 5 months of implementation. Our estimates showed an 82% reduction in the risk of lethal vessel strikes to right whales due to vessel‐operator compliance. We conclude that the high level of compliance achieved with this voluntary conservation initiative occurred because the area to be avoided was adopted by the International Maritime Organization. Our results demonstrate that international shipping interests are able and willing to voluntarily alter course to protect endangered whales.     

Evaluating the coastal environment for marine birds

The marine environment is being increasingly exploited by fisheries and the oil and gas industry. Conservationists urgently need the ability to identify the processes that determine patterns of abundance of marine species. We describe a preliminary Geographic Information System (GIS) in which spatial data on environmental variables (seabird colony locations, sea depth and seabed sediments) are integrated with realistic energy constraints faced by marine birds during the breeding season. A simple foraging model predicts the spatial variation in the quality of given locations as potential feeding sites under different feeding conditions and stages of the breeding cycle. We show how the approach can be used to help managers identify key marine areas and assess the impacts of environmental change or damage.     

Prioritizing forest management actions to benefit marine habitats in data-poor regions

Land-use change is considered one of the greatest human threats to marine ecosystems globally. Given limited resources for conservation, we adapted and scaled up a spatially explicit, linked land–sea decision support tool using open access global geospatial data sets and software to inform the prioritization of future forest management interventions that can have the greatest benefit on marine conservation in Vanuatu. We leveraged and compared outputs from two global marine habitat maps to prioritize land areas for forest conservation and restoration that can maximize sediment retention, water quality, and healthy coastal/marine ecosystems. By combining the outputs obtained from both marine habitat maps, we incorporated elements unique to each and provided higher confidence in our prioritization results. Regardless of marine habitat data source, prioritized areas were mostly located in watersheds on the windward side of the large high islands, exposed to higher tropical rainfall, upstream from large sections of coral reef and seagrass habitats, and thus vulnerable to human-driven land use change. Forest protection and restoration in these areas will serve to maintain clean water and healthy, productive habitats through sediment retention, supporting the wellbeing of neighboring communities. The nationwide application of this linked land–sea tool can help managers prioritize watershed-based management actions based on quantitative synergies and trade-offs across terrestrial and marine ecosystems in data-poor regions. The framework developed here will guide the implementation of ridge-to-reef management across the Pacific region and beyond.     

Land cover types and ecological conditions of the Estonian coast

Detailed analysis of the land cover of the Estonian coastal zone is presented based on Estonian laws on coastal zone management, the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) system, the status of protected areas, and administrative division data of Estonia. By law the coastal zone is defined as a 200-m wide zone landward from the mean sea level line. The length of the Estonian coastline (including the islands) is 3794 km. The 200-m zone of the Estonian coast is very diverse. Out of the 34 CORINE land cover types represented in Estonia 30 are found in the coastal zone. Three dominating land cover types in the coastal zone of Estonia are inland marshes, coniferous forest and semi-natural grassland. Their total share is 47%; the other 27 land cover types represented here cover 53% of the coastal zone. The Estonian coastal zone is generally in a good natural condition. The proportion of artificial surfaces throughout the zone is merely 4.7%, while agricultural landscapes cover only ca. 10%. Land cover data for the coastal zone are also presented by county. Of the 200-m coastal zone 24% is under protection, which is more than twice the value for Estonia as a whole (11%). Legislative protection of the coastal zone is presently satisfactory. The use of the CORINE Land Cover system enables comparisons with other European regions since CLC data have been compiled for most of Europe.     

Forest conservation delivers highly variable coral reef conservation outcomes

Coral reefs are threatened by human activities on both the land (e.g., deforestation) and the sea (e.g., overfishing). Most conservation planning for coral reefs focuses on removing threats in the sea, neglecting management actions on the land. A more integrated approach to coral reef conservation, inclusive of land-sea connections, requires an understanding of how and where terrestrial conservation actions influence reefs. We address this by developing a land-sea planning approach to inform fine-scale spatial management decisions and test it in Fiji. Our aim is to determine where the protection of forest can deliver the greatest return on investment for coral reef ecosystems. To assess the benefits of conservation to coral reefs, we estimate their relative condition as influenced by watershed-based pollution and fishing. We calculate the cost-effectiveness of protecting forest and find that investments deliver rapidly diminishing returns for improvements to relative reef condition. For example, protecting 2% of forest in one area is almost 500 times more beneficial than protecting 2% in another area, making prioritization essential. For the scenarios evaluated, relative coral reef condition could be improved by 8-58% if all remnant forest in Fiji were protected rather than deforested. Finally, we determine the priority of each coral reef for implementing a marine protected area when all remnant forest is protected for conservation. The general results will support decisions made by the Fiji Protected Area Committee as they establish a national protected area network that aims to protect 20% of the land and 30% of the inshore waters by 2020. Although challenges remain, we can inform conservation decisions around the globe by tackling the complex issues relevant to integrated land-sea planning.     

Defining the balance point between conservation and development

In the face of the current global ecological crisis and the threats it poses to human survival and security, the fundamental solution is to resolve the deep contradiction between conservation and economic development. We considered the 3 key and basic questions of why to protect, how much to protect, and where to protect natural areas. Human survival depends on functioning ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. In this regard, conserving core biodiversity conservation priority areas (BCPAs) can provide maximum conservation benefit. The goals of protected area (PA) systems globally and nationally must be clearly defined so as to sustain the survival and development of people and to coordinate and balance other objectives with this goal at the center. There is an urgent need to study, calculate, and define the extent of the natural world to ensure the well-being of people. We call this area over which natural areas of land and sea extend across the world or a country nature proportion (N%). Especially, a minimum area that ensures human survival should be protected, and we suggest that this area should cover core BCPAs so that it can achieve the maximum conservation benefit. These recommendations could be applied at global or national levels. The Chinese government proposes “developing a protected-area system composed mainly of national parks,” and it has unified the administration of PAs into a central management authority. At this key time in the reform of the PA system, should this proposal be adopted, conservation will garner the greatest social consensus and support, and planning at the national level for BCPA coverage will be improved. We believe these recommendations are critical for China and other countries and extremely important for the world because they will pave the way toward a balance between nature conservation and human development as the projected human population reaches 10 billion by 2050.     

New hypothesis helps explain elasmobranch "outburst" on Georges Bank in the 1980s.

Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.