Validation of the UK Met. Office’s name model against the ETEX dataset

The ETEX 1 data set has been used to assess the performance of the UK Met Office’s long-range dispersion model NAME. In terms of emergency response modelling the model performed well, successfully predicting the overall spread and timing of the plume across Europe. However, in common with most other models, NAME overpredicted the observed concentrations. This is in contrast with other NAME validation studies which indicate either no significant bias or a tendency to underpredict concentrations. This suggests the reasons for overpredicting are specific to the ETEX situation. Explanations include inadequate vertical diffusion or transport, possible venting by convective activity, and experimental errors. An assessment of a range of advection schemes of varying complexity indicated no clear advantage, at present, in using more sophisticated random walk techniques at long range, a simple diffusion coefficient based scheme providing some of the best results. A brief look is also taken at a simulation of the more problematical ETEX 2 release.     

Evaluation of the effect of meteorological data resolution on Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using the ETEX experiment

This paper presents results from a series of numerical experiments designed to evaluate operational long-range dispersion model simulations, and to investigate the effect of different temporal and spatial resolution of meteorological data from numerical weather prediction models on these simulations. Results of Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations of the first tracer release of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) are presented and compared with measured tracer concentrations. The use of analyzed data of higher resolution from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model produced significantly better agreement between the concentrations predicted with the dispersion model and the ETEX measurements than the use of lower resolution Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecast data. Numerical experiments were performed in which the ECMWF model data with lower vertical resolution (4 instead of 7 levels below 500 mb), lower temporal resolution (12 h instead of 6 h intervals), and lower horizontal resolution (2.5° instead of 0.5°) were used. Degrading the horizontal or temporal resolution of the ECMWF data resulted in decreased accuracy of the dispersion simulations. These results indicate that flow features resolved by the numerical weather prediction model data at approximately 45 km horizontal grid spacing and 6 h time intervals, but not resolved at 225 km spacing and 12 h intervals, made an important contribution to the long-range dispersion.     

The field campaigns of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX): overview and results

As part of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) two successful atmospheric experiments were carried out in October and November, 1994. Perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers were released into the atmosphere in Monterfil, Brittany, and air samples were taken at 168 stations in 17 European countries for 72 h after the release. Upper air tracer measurements were made from three aircraft. During the first experiment a westerly air flow transported the tracer plume north-eastwards across Europe. During the second release the flow was eastwards. The results from the ground sampling network allowed the determination of the cloud evolution as far as Sweden, Poland and Bulgaria. This demonstrated that the PFT technique can be successfully applied in long-range tracer experiments up to 2000 km. Typical background concentrations of the tracer used are around 5–7 fl ?^-1 in ambient air. Concentrations in the plume ranged from 10 to above 200 fl/?^-1. The tracer release characteristics, the tracer concentrations at the ground and in upper air, the routine and additional meteorological observations at the ground level and in upper air, trajectories derived from constant-level balloons and the meteorological input fields for long-range transport models are assembled in the ETEX database. The ETEX database is accessible via the Internet. Here, an overview is given of the design of the experiment, the methods used and the data obtained.     

Validation of the lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART against large-scale tracer experiment data

A comprehensive validation of FLEXPART, a recently developed Lagrangian particle dispersion model based on meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is described in this paper. Measurement data from three large-scale tracer experiments, the Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX), the Across North America Tracer Experiment (ANATEX) and the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) are used for this purpose. The evaluation is based entirely on comparisons of model results and measurements paired in space and time. It is found that some of the statistical parameters often used for model validation are extremely sensitive to small measurement errors and should not be used in future studies. 40 cases of tracer dispersion are studied, allowing a validation of the model performance under a variety of different meteorological conditions. The model usually performs very well under undisturbed meteorological conditions, but it is less skilful in the presence of fronts. The two ETEX cases reveal the full range of the model’s skill, with the first one being among the best cases studied, and the second one being, by far, the worst. The model performance in terms of the statistical parameters used stays rather constant with time over the periods (up to 117 h) studied here. It is shown that the method used to estimate the concentrations at the receptor locations has a significant effect on the evaluation results. The vertical wind component sometimes has a large influence on the model results, but on the average only a slight improvement over simulations which neglect the vertical wind can be demonstrated. Subgrid variability of mixing heights is important and must be accounted for.     

Bulgarian emergency response models–validation against ETEX first release

In the paper, the performance of two Bulgarian dispersion models is tested against European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) first release data base. The first one is the LED puff model which was the core of the Bulgarian Emergency Response System during all releases of ETEX. The second one is the newly created Eulerian dispersion model EMAP. These models have two important features: they are PC-oriented and they use quite a limited amount of input meteorological information. First, a number of runs with various source configurations are made on meteorological data produced by ECMWF. The aim of these runs is to verify the models’ ability to simulate reliably ETEX first release. To this end, a set of statistical criteria selected in ATMES (Atmospheric Transport Models Evaluation Study, see Klug et al., 1992 are used. The best runs for both models are obtained when the source is presented as a column towering from the ground to heights of 400–700 m. These runs took part in the second phase of ETEX (ETEX-II), the so called ATMES-type exercise where EMAP ranked ninth and LED - fourteenth among 34 models. Here, additional sets of EMAP are presented where in the first run the value of the horizontal diffusion coefficient is varied and in the other runs different meteorological data sets are tested. The results obtained from the first run show that the values of K_h=4–6×10⁴ m² s^-1 produce fields which fit experimental data best. The other sets of runs show that the higher the frequency of the meteorological data, the better the simulation. The results can be improved by linear interpolation of the meteorological parameters with time, the best fitting obtained with interpolation at each time step.     

Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s real-time dispersion model snap (Severe Nuclear Accident Program): Runs for ETEX and ATMES II experiments with different meteorological input

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) has developed and implemented for operational use a real-time dispersion model Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) with capability for predicting concentrations and depositions of the radioactive debris from large accidental releases. SNAP has been closely linked to DNMI’s operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.How good are these predictions? Participation in ETEX has partly answered this question. DNMI used SNAP with LAM50S giving meteorological input for these real-time dispersion calculations. LAM50S Limited Area Model with 50 km grid squareswas DNMI’s operational NWP model in 1994 when ETEX took place.In this article we report on how SNAP performed in the first of the ETEX releases in near-real-time mode, using LAM50S—and in hindcast mode for ATMES II, using “ECMWF 1995: ETEX Data set (ATMES II)”as meteorological input data. These two input data sets came from NWP models with quite different characteristics but with similar resolution in time and space.The results from these dispersion simulations matched closely. Deviations early in the simulation period shrank to insignificant differences later on. Since both input data sets were based on “weather analysis” and had similar resolution in space and time, SNAP described the dispersion of the released material very similar in these two simulations.     

Modeling the ETEX plume dispersion with the Canadian emergency response model

The CANadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM) was used to simulate the dispersion resulting from the ETEX release of 23 October 1994. Dispersion simulations were done using three different data sets as meteorological input: the ECMWF/ETEX Data Set, data from the CMC Global Data Assimilation System, and results from a diagnostic execution of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Comparisons of the dispersion simulations are made with observed surface concentration data provided by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. It is found that CANERM can simulate fairly well the main features of the cloud dispersion. The spatial and temporal evolution of the simulated cloud appear quite plausible, but a tendency to overestimate surface concentrations is apparent. The simulations provide a credible explanation for the two peaks observed at station NL01; the first peak appears to be associated with the passage of the head portion of the plume, while the second seems to be associated with the tail part. Verification scores indicate that the simulations using the ECMWF/ETEX data set and CMC global data are of equivalent quality. However, the simulations obtained using the GEM diagnostic fields are significantly better.     

Validation of the operational emergency response model at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using data from etex and the chernobyl accident

The Eulerian atmospheric tracer transport model MATCH (Multiscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry model) has been extended with a Lagrangian particle model treating the initial dispersion of pollutants from point sources. The model has been implemented at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in an emergency response system for nuclear accidents and can be activated on short notice to provide forecast concentration and deposition fields.The model has been used to simulate the transport of the inert tracer released during the ETEX experiment and the transport and deposition of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident. Visual inspection of the results as well as statistical analysis shows that the extent, time of arrival and duration of the tracer cloud, is in good agreement with the observations for both cases, with a tendency towards over-prediction for the first ETEX release. For the Chernobyl case the simulated deposition pattern over Scandinavia and over Europe as a whole agrees with observations when observed precipitation is used in the simulation. When model calculated precipitation is used, the quality of the simulation is reduced significantly and the model fails to predict major features of the observed deposition field.     

Validation of the Polyphemus platform on the ETEX,Chernobyl and Algeciras cases

The objective of this article is to investigate the validity of a modeling system developed for forecasting atmospheric dispersion, the Polyphemus platform, with a special focus on radionuclides. The platform is briefly described and model-to-data comparisons are reported for three cases: the ETEX campaign, the Chernobyl accident and the Algeciras release. The results are similar to those usually given in the literature by state-of-the-art models. Some preliminary sensitivity analysis indicates the main sources for uncertainties.     

Three long-range transport models compared to the ETEX experiment: a performance study

For operational or research purposes (dispersion computations of radioactive effluents during nuclear emergency situations, simulations of chemical pollution in the vicinity of thermal power plants), different models of passive dispersion in the atmosphere have been developed at the Environment Department of EDF’s R and D Division. This report presents the comparison of the performances of three such models: DIFTRA (lagrangian puff model, with operational goal), DIFEUL (three dimensional eulerian) and DIFPAR (Monte Carlo particle model) for the simulation of the first ETEX release, an international tracer campaign during which a passive tracer cloud has been followed over Europe. The results obtained in this study give model vs. experience differences of the same order as the model vs. experience differences observed during an international model comparison experiment using data of the Chernobyl release, the ATMES exercise. In addition to the standard statistical scores used in the evaluation of the performances of the transport models two asymmetric scores (in contradistinction with the Figure of Merit in Space) are proposed: “efficiency” and “power”. Their aim is to separate the two manners in which a model may be wrong: by predicting presence of pollutant while none is measured or conversely predicting absence when pollutant is actually detected.     

Evaluation of a long-range lagrangian dispersion model with ETEX

Performance of a Lagrangian dispersion model was examined in connection with its dependency on the boundary layer modelling and the input data resolution. The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) data were used as reference. According to the sensitivity analysis of the model performance, the long-range dispersion model with the sparse input data was not noticeably different from that with the finer resolution data. The assumption of the prescribed constant mixing depth did not largely degrade the prediction results as compared with the simulation results with the temporally changing boundary layer. It is, therefore, concluded that the model is practical, considering the limited input data in the operational mode. However, it was also pointed out that the parameterization for the horizontal and vertical diffusion processes used in the present model enhanced the growth of plume. The improvement of input data resolution in time and space caused further dispersion of tracer deterministically. These resulted in the underestimation of the maximum concentration and the unfocussed concentration distribution map although the mean concentration was predicted fairly well.     

Data assimilation in meteorological pre-processors: Effects on atmospheric dispersion simulations

In previous work [Kovalets, I., Andronopoulos, S., Bartzis, J.G., Gounaris, N., Kushchan, A., 2004. Introduction of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processor of atmospheric dispersion models used in emergency response systems. Atmospheric Environment 38, 457–467.] the authors have developed data assimilation (DA) procedures and implemented them in the frames of a diagnostic meteorological pre-processor (MPP) to enable simultaneous use of meteorological measurements with numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. The DA techniques were directly validated showing a clear improvement of the MPP output quality in comparison with meteorological measurement data. In the current paper it is demonstrated that the application of DA procedures in the MPP, to combine meteorological measurements with NWP data, has a noticeable positive effect on the performance of an atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) driven by the MPP output. This result is particularly important for emergency response systems used for accidental releases of pollutants, because it provides the possibility to combine meteorological measurements with NWP data in order to achieve more reliable dispersion predictions. This is also an indirect way to validate the DA procedures applied in the MPP. The above goal is achieved by applying the Lagrangian ADM DIPCOT driven by meteorological data calculated by the MPP code both with and without the use of DA procedures to simulate the first European tracer experiment (ETEX I). The performance of the ADM in each case was evaluated by comparing the predicted and the experimental concentrations with the use of statistical indices and concentration plots. The comparison of resulting concentrations using the different sets of meteorological data showed that the activation of DA in the MPP code clearly improves the performance of dispersion calculations in terms of plume shape and dimensions, location of maximum concentrations, statistical indices and time variation of concentration at the detectors locations.     

Source function estimate by means of variational data assimilation applied to the ETEX-I tracer experiment

The ETEX data set opens new possibilities to develop data assimilation procedures in the area of long-range transport. This paper illustrates the possibilities using a variational approach, where the source term for ETEX-I was reconstructed. The MATCH model (Robertson et al., 1996) has been the basis for this attempt. The timing of the derived emission rates are in accordance with the time period for the ETEX-I release, and a cross validation, with observations beyond the selected assimilation period, shows that the source term gained holds for the entire ETEX-I experiment. A poor-man variational approach was shown to perform nearly as good as a fully variational data assimilation. The issue of quality control has not been considered in this attempt but will be an important part that has to be addressed in future work.     

Comparison of constant volume balloons, model trajectories and tracer transport during ETEX

In the field phases of the European Tracer EXperiment (ETEX), an inert tracer was released for 12 h into the atmosphere and samples taken at several locations downwind. During the same time, several Constant Volume Balloons (CVB) (10 and 6 for ETEX first and second release, respectively) were launched into different altitudes and followed as far as 21–188 km, to indicate the initial dispersion directions of the tracer puff. A model simulating the CVB behaviour in hydrostatic meso-scale model forecasts is applied to ETEX data to demonstrate its capability to predict the tracer puff mean axis over long distances (−2000 km). CVB model results are first compared to air parcels trajectories and 2D (i.e. isentropic, isobaric and isodensity) trajectories. Then they are compared to the measured CVB trajectories and finally to the tracer puff trajectories. As expected, the CVB model and isodensity model trajectories are found to be identical. The 16 CVBs calculated trajectories nearly overlap the real ones over 21–188 km with mean absolute horizontal transport deviations less than 20 km (average value of 8.2 km). The corresponding relative transport deviations are less than 45% with an average value of 20.6%. Better predictions are obtained for the ETEX second release. During the 60 h following ETEX’s first release start, the simulated CVBs are mainly found in the area of the maximum surface concentrations of the released tracer, up to 2000 km. Up to 36 h after ETEX second tracer release start, the simulated CVB trajectories predict well the mean axis of the tracer puff, but failed later.     

On the importance of the meteorological coupling interval in dispersion modeling during ETEX-1

Traditionally, transport and dispersion models are offline coupled to meteorological drivers, receiving pre-processed output at regular coupling intervals. However, today meteorological models have reached urban and cloud resolving scales and online models integrating meteorological and dispersion models have been developed. In this study the online coupled model, Enviro-HIRLAM, which can also run in offline mode, was used to compare online and offline representations of meso-scale disturbances. The online model was evaluated using data from the first European Tracer Experiment (ETEX-1) and produced satisfactory results. Meso-scale influences during the simulation pertube the plume during long-range transport, leading to a double peak structure at a specific measurement station. The meso-scale influence was investigated by varying the offline coupling interval which was shown to be important in constraining the influence of meso-scale disturbances on plume structure in coarse resolution.     

Evaluation of trajectories calculated from ecmwf data against constant volume balloon flights during etex

This paper validates trajectories calculated from ECMWF analyses against the tracks of constant volume balloons (CVBs) released during the European tracer experiment (ETEX). The altitudes of the calculated trajectories were adjusted to the altitudes of the respective balloons in short intervals to allow direct comparisons. The agreement between the calculated trajectories and the balloon tracks was very good for the first experiment (individual errors from 1 to 26%, average 15%), and excellent (errors from 2 to 11%, average 6%) for the second one. The agreement for the second experiment was probably partly better because the CVBs travelled above the planetary boundary layer, but the small errors also indicate that the ECMWF fields of the horizontal wind were of exceptionally good quality in the second experiment. This is in sharp contrast to the results of the dispersion models which all failed in the prediction of the perfluorocarbon tracer dispersion for the second experiment. A likely explanation for this is that vertical motions, possibly on small scales, were not correctly captured by the ECMWF analyses, but it is not possible to clarify this with the CVB data.     

Fuel reformulation in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City

Two models frequently used to simulate the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere have been compared. This is necessary because only a well-tested and well-calibrated simulation model can be a good representation of the reality of the dispersion of pollutants. The models evaluated (HYSPLIT_4 with its four variants and MEDIA) were run using as input parameters the same meteorological dataset (for 23-26 October 1994) from the French model ARPEGE. The following statistical criteria were compared: the space and time evolution of the pollutant cloud; the variation of statistical parameters in time and space; and the differences between the simulated and measured values of concentration in time for six different stations. The results emphasise the characteristics of the two models and their abilities in the framework of the air quality monitoring.     

Meteorological conditions at the release site during the two tracer experiments

The state of the boundary layer at the release site during the two tracer experiments is described, based on measurements of atmospheric turbulence carried out by a sonic anemometer, profiles of horizontal and vertical wind by a SODAR as well as frequent radiosonde releases. The boundary layer height is derived from radiosoundings, modelled and discussed. The study is meant as background for discussions of the tracer behaviour near the release site, and possible influence of the local meteorology at the release site on the long-range dispersion. The difference in the initial meso-meteorological conditions between the two experiments is discussed and some of its consequences for the dispersion of the released tracer are clarified. It is concluded that the first experiment is well suited for validation of long-range transport and dispersion models, whereas the second experiment calls for further model development. It is concluded that the micrometeorological measurements are very important as background information for the understanding of plume behaviour on small as well as long scales.     

Experimental verification for real-time environmental emergency response system: WSPEEDI by European tracer experiment

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy.