Capacity of Management Plans for Aquatic Invasive Species to Integrate Climate Change

Abstract:  The consequences of climate change will affect aquatic ecosystems, including aquatic invasive species (AIS) that are already affecting these ecosystems. Effects on AIS include range shifts and more frequent overwintering of species. These effects may create new challenges for AIS management. We examined available U.S. state AIS management plans to assess each program's capacity to adapt to climate-change effects. We scored the adaptive capacity of AIS management plans on the basis of whether they addressed potential impacts resulting from climate change; demonstrated a capacity to adapt to changing conditions; provided for monitoring strategies; provided for plan revisions; and described funding for implementation. Most plans did not mention climate change specifically, but some did acknowledge climatic boundaries of species and ecosystem sensitivities to changing conditions. Just under half the plans mentioned changing environmental conditions as a factor, most frequently as part of research activities. Activities associated with monitoring showed the highest capacity to include information on changing conditions, and future revisions to management plans are likely to be the easiest avenue through which to address climate-change effects on AIS management activities. Our results show that programs have the capacity to incorporate information about climate-change effects and that the adaptive-management framework may be an appropriate approach.     

Current Practices and Future Opportunities for Policy on Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Invasive Species

Abstract:  Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.     

Managing Aquatic Species of Conservation Concern in the Face of Climate Change and Invasive Species

Abstract:  The difficult task of managing species of conservation concern is likely to become even more challenging due to the interaction of climate change and invasive species. In addition to direct effects on habitat quality, climate change will foster the expansion of invasive species into new areas and magnify the effects of invasive species already present by altering competitive dominance, increasing predation rates, and enhancing the virulence of diseases. In some cases parapatric species may expand into new habitats and have detrimental effects that are similar to those of invading non-native species. The traditional strategy of isolating imperiled species in reserves may not be adequate if habitat conditions change beyond historic ranges or in ways that favor invasive species. The consequences of climate change will require a more active management paradigm that includes implementing habitat improvements that reduce the effects of climate change and creating migration barriers that prevent an influx of invasive species. Other management actions that should be considered include providing dispersal corridors that allow species to track environmental changes, translocating species to newly suitable habitats where migration is not possible, and developing action plans for the early detection and eradication of new invasive species.     

Integrated Monitoring and Information Systems for Managing Aquatic Invasive Species in a Changing Climate

Abstract:  Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.     

气候变化对物种影响研究综述

综述了气候变化对物种的影响,表明气候变化会造成生物物候期的改变,导致物种地理分布的变化,增加物种的灭绝速率。分析了利用模型进行气候变化影响模拟的技术,指出模型的适用性和不确定性。最后,针对中国相关研究的不足,展望了未来开展气候变化影响研究的方向。     

Effects of Climate Change,Invasive Species,and Disease on the Distribution of Native European Crayfishes

Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal‐limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate‐suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate‐suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague‐transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. Efectos del Cambio Climático, Especies Invasoras y Enfermedades sobre la Distribución de Cangrejos de Río Europeos Nativos     

Understanding Recent Climate Change

Abstract:  The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 °C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most .     

Effect of Invasive Plant Species on Temperate Wetland Plant Diversity

Abstract:  Invasive species are a major threat to global biodiversity and an important cause of biotic homogenization of ecosystems. Exotic plants have been identified as a particular concern because of the widely held belief that they competitively exclude native plant species. We examined the correlation between native and invasive species richness in 58 Ontario inland wetlands. The relationship between exotic and native species richness was positive even when we controlled for important covarying factors. In addition, we examined the relationship between the abundance of four native species (  Typha latifolia, T. angustifolia, Salix petiolaris, Nuphar variegatum ) and four invasive species (  Lythrum salicaria, Hydrocharis morsus-ranae, Phalaris arundinacea, Rhamnus frangula ) that often dominate temperate wetlands and native and rare native species richness. Exotic species were no more likely to dominate a wetland than native species, and the proportion of dominant exotic species that had a significant negative effect on the native plant community was the same as the proportion of native species with a significant negative effect. We conclude that the key to conservation of inland wetland biodiversity is to discourage the spread of community dominants, regardless of geographical origin.     

Managing Invasive Aquatic Plants in a Changing System: Strategic Consideration of Ecosystem Services

Abstract:  Climate change is projected to increase stress for many coastal plant communities. Along large portions of the North American coast, habitat degradation from anthropogenic changes to the environment already threaten the community structure of tidal marshes and submerged aquatic grass beds. The potential loss of ecological services historically provided by these communities has been a long-standing rationale for aggressive control of invading plants such as Phragmites australis and Hydrilla verticillata . Increasing evidence of ecological services provided by invasive species such as P. australis and H. verticillata suggest that, in the face of increasing stress, it may be prudent to take a more pragmatic approach regarding the effect of these species on coastal ecosystems. The notable resilience of these species to control efforts and their competitive success and comparative vigor in stressed systems and capacity to provide at least some beneficial services combine to suggest some invasive species may have a useful role in managed coastal ecosystems.     

Breeding Distributions of North American Bird Species Moving North as a Result of Climate Change

Abstract:  Geographic changes in species distributions toward traditionally cooler climes is one hypothesized indicator of recent global climate change. We examined distribution data on 56 bird species. If global warming is affecting species distributions across the temperate northern hemisphere, these data should show the same northward range expansions of birds that have been reported for Great Britain. Because a northward shift of distributions might be due to multidirectional range expansions for multiple species, we also examined the possibility that birds with northern distributions may be expanding their ranges southward. There was no southward expansion of birds with a northern distribution, indicating that there is no evidence of overall range expansion of insectivorous and granivorous birds in North America. As predicted, the northern limit of birds with a southern distribution showed a significant shift northward (2.35 km/year). This northward shift is similar to that observed in previous work conducted in Great Britain: the widespread nature of this shift in species distributions over two distinct geographical regions and its coincidence with a period of global warming suggests a connection with global climate change.     

对全球气候变化原因及发展趋势之浅见

分析了引起全球气候变化的各种可能原因，对温室气体、植被破坏、水汽变化等对全球气候变化的影响作了概括总结，阐述了全球气候变化发展趋势及气候变化预测中应注意的问题。     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Compensation for “Meaningful Participation” in Climate Change Control: A Modest Proposal and Empirical Analysis

The debate over an international climate change regime has thus far focused primarily on efficiency concerns in developed countries. This paper suggests a means by which equity concerns may be addressed in the ongoing negotiations. A system of transfers is developed that is motivated by the difference between the damage caused by a country and the damage suffered by that country as a result of climate change. Illustrative calculations of the magnitude and direction of these transfers are made. We find that in general transfers flow from temperate to tropical countries but that the degree of uncertainty associated with these calculations is very large.     

Invasive Species Research to Meet the Needs of Resource Management and Planning

Abstract: As zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) continue to spread among inland lakes of the United States and Canada, there is growing interest from professionals, citizens, and other stakeholders to know which lakes are likely to be colonized by zebra mussels. Thus, we developed a classification of lake suitability for zebra mussels on the basis of measured or estimated concentrations of dissolved calcium in lake water and applied the classification to >11,500 lakes in Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The majority of lakes (58%) were classified as unsuitable (<10 mg/L Ca) for survival and reproduction of zebra mussels, 27% were identified as suitable (≥21 mg/L Ca), and 15% were classified as borderline suitable (≥10 and <21 mg/L Ca). Of the 77 inland lakes with confirmed zebra mussel records for which data on dissolved calcium were available, our method classified 74 as suitable and 3 as borderline suitable. To communicate this lake‐specific suitability information and to help prioritize regional efforts to monitor and prevent the expansion of zebra mussels and other invasive species, we developed a web‐based interface (available from http://www.aissmartprevention.wisc.edu/ ). Although we are still uncertain of how access to suitability information ultimately affects decision making, we believe this is a useful case study of building communication channels among researchers, practitioners, and the public.     

Potential Ecological Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment: a Case Study of Buffel Grass in Arid Regions of Mexico

Abstract:  Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity. Such is the case of buffel grass ( Cenchrus ciliaris L.), a native species of Southern Asia and East Africa, which was introduced to the United States and Mexico for use in improved pasture. Here we present a coarse-grain approach to determine areas where buffel grass can potentially invade in Mexico. Potential species distributions, suitable for an invasion by buffel grass, were obtained through genetic algorithms. We generated the algorithms with databases of herbaria specimens; environmental digital covers of climate, soil texture, and vegetation; and the program called Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction. This spatial modeling approach was validated with a case study for the state of Sonora, Mexico, where the occurrence of buffel grass has been proven. The most threatened vegetation types for the specific case of Sonora were desert scrub, mesquite woodlands, and tropical deciduous forest. The model prediction agreed with the field observations recorded in Sonora and allowed us to apply the same procedure to produce a map of the potential sites of buffel grass invasion for Mexico. The areas at risk of invasion mostly occurred in desert scrub, located in the arid and semiarid regions of northern Mexico. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. Additionally this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use in making decisions on land-use management practices when alien species are involved.     

Projected Climate Impacts for the Amphibians of the Western Hemisphere

Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate‐driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate‐change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted‐range species not included in our range‐shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted‐range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad‐scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.     

Assessing the Risk of Introducing Exotic Species via the Live Marine Species Trade

Abstract:  Although the shipping industry has received considerable attention as a dispersal mechanism for aquatic nuisance species, many invasions have been linked to other mechanisms of transfer. The threat posed to coastal ecosystems by these alternative mechanisms, however, remains largely unquantified. We assessed the potential risks of introducing marine and estuarine species associated with seven mechanisms of transfer: seafood companies, aquaculture operations, bait shops, stores that sell marine ornamental species, research and educational organizations, public aquariums, and coastal restoration projects. For each, we compiled a comprehensive database of organizations in coastal Massachusetts. We then designed and administered a survey to a subset of organizations that inquired about (1) their proximity to saltwater and methods of handling live imports; (2) the type and quantity of marine species being imported; and (3) the organization's familiarity with marine invasions. Respondents in five of the seven categories acknowledged importing nonlocal live marine species to the area. Seafood companies handled the majority of individuals but relatively few taxa. This mechanism of transfer also had the most complex trade patterns and the greatest number of operations located near saltwater. In contrast, the other transfer mechanisms each had simpler trade pathways and fewer operations but varied in the quantity and taxonomic diversity of their imports. Significantly, no single mechanism of transfer stood out as presenting a primary risk. Rather, each had characteristics or used handling practices at different points in the importation process that could facilitate introductions. To prevent future marine invasions, better reporting requirements for live species imports are needed, and best-management practices and outreach strategies specific to the transfer mechanism should be developed and implemented.     

Incorporating Climate and Ocean Change into Extinction Risk Assessments for 82 Coral Species

Many marine invertebrate species facing potential extinction have uncertain taxonomies and poorly known demographic and ecological traits. Uncertainties are compounded when potential extinction drivers are climate and ocean changes whose effects on even widespread and abundant species are only partially understood. The U.S. Endangered Species Act mandates conservation management decisions founded on the extinction risk to species based on the best available science at the time of consideration—requiring prompt action rather than awaiting better information. We developed an expert‐opinion threat‐based approach that entails a structured voting system to assess extinction risk from climate and ocean changes and other threats to 82 coral species for which population status and threat response information was limited. Such methods are urgently needed because constrained budgets and manpower will continue to hinder the availability of desired data for many potentially vulnerable marine species. Significant species‐specific information gaps and uncertainties precluded quantitative assessments of habitat loss or population declines and necessitated increased reliance on demographic characteristics and threat vulnerabilities at genus or family levels. Adapting some methods (e.g., a structured voting system) used during other assessments and developing some new approaches (e.g., integrated assessment of threats and demographic characteristics), we rated the importance of threats contributing to coral extinction risk and assessed those threats against population status and trend information to evaluate each species’ extinction risk over the 21st century. This qualitative assessment resulted in a ranking with an uncertainty range for each species according to their estimated likelihood of extinction. We offer guidance on approaches for future biological extinction risk assessments, especially in cases of data‐limited species likely to be affected by global‐scale threats. Incorporación del Cambio Climático y Oceánico en Estudios de Riesgo de Extinción para 82 Especies de Coral