我国生态需水研究现状、面临挑战与未来展望

通过回顾生态需水研究发展历程及主要研究成果，从生态需水研究的典型区（流）域、研究对象、概念内涵、研究内容、计算方法及应用等方面系统归纳并总结了我国生态需水的研究现状与面临挑战，并提出若干关键科学问题。指出现阶段我国生态需水研究仍处于起步阶段，生态需水基础理论研究不足是导致目前生态需水计算方法不统一，可信度低，计算结果风险大，在水资源规划、配置与管理实践中难以达到预期结果的主要原因。今后生态需水研究的重点方向是基于流域生态系统完整性的流域生态系统需水研究，关键科学问题包括变化环境下气候变化和人类活动对生态需水影响机理及尺度转换中生态需水规律剖析等，在此基础上，需进一步加强生态需水基础理论研究，强调理论研究与管理实践的有机结合，以构建适合我国国情的生态需水研究理论方法和技术体系     

Global Research Trends Related to CO2 Emissions and Their Enlightenment to China

Given the growing awareness of the likely catastrophic impacts of climate change and close association of climate change with global emissions of greenhouse gases (of which carbon dioxide is more prominent) , considerable research efforts have been devoted to the analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and its relationship to sustainable development. Now GHG reduction programs have been coming into effect in many developed countries that have more responsibility for historical CO2 emissions, and the studies have become mature. First, the GHG emissions accounting system is more all-inclusive and the methods are more rational with the effort of IPCC from 1995 and all other researchers related. Second, the responsibility allocation is more rational and fair. Along with the clarity of "carbon transfer" and "carbon leakage", the perspective and methodology for allocating regional CO2 emissions responsibility is turning from production base to consumption base. Third, the decomposition method has become more mature and more complex. For example, the decomposition formulas are including KAYA expression and input-output expression and the decomposition techniques are developed from index analysis to simple average divisia and then adaptive-weighting divisia. Fourth, projection models have become more integrated and long-term. The top-down model and bottom-up model are both inter-embedded and synergetic. Trends above give some advice for the research on CO2 in China, such as emissions factors database construction, deeper-going research on emissions responsibility and structure analysis, promotion of modeling technology and technology-environment database.     

Analysis of BIM application relationship with integration degree of construction environment

As the world pays more attention to low-earbon and sustainable development,there’s a growing trend in architecture,engineering and construction fields to construct greener,more energy efficient and more sustainable buildings with the help of building information modeling(BIM).As BIM application becomes popular in industry,more and more scholars and engineers point out that an integrated construction environment is better for BIM’s fully functional capability.This paper illustrates the relationship between BIM application and an integrated construction environment based on case survey data.It is found that even though an integration construction environment is not necessary in BIM application,the statistical results showed that DBB(design-bid-build)and CM(construction management)modes have great differences in BIM’s application implementation scope and implementation deepness,while DB and CM modes do not.     

三峡库区复杂地形下的降雨时空分布特点分析

根据三峡水库坝区周边10个气象站1992~2002年逐日降雨资料,先用比值法将短期考察资料延长,再通过对比、回归等方法,客观分析降雨量、降雨日数、暴雨量、暴雨日数等指标随时间（年内、年际）和地形（高度、坡向）的变化,其特点如下：三峡坝区冬干、夏雨、秋雨明显,近年降雨增多;与武汉市相比,有降雨日多但降雨量、暴雨日及大暴雨日少的特点;降雨量、降雨日数、暴雨量、暴雨日数等多随高度上升而递增;由于受南北边山地阻挡和峡谷的影响,长江以南降雨大于长江以北;水体抑制库周降雨,且夜间比白天明显,强降雨过程比弱降雨过程明显。三峡地区降雨周边山地多于谷底,蓄水后差异将更明显,使地质灾害容易发生,应引起高度重视。     

全球CO_2排放研究趋势及其对我国的启示

近几年,全球气候变暖已经成为国际社会的共识,由此而引发的温室气体减排计划也陆续在主要发达国家开始实施,有关CO_2排放问题的研究也成为全球的学术焦点.通过对全球CO_2排放研究趋势的总结发现:首先,国际社会有关CO_2排放的核算方法不断完善,从IPCC(1995)到IPCC(2006),内容更加完善,方法更趋合理;其次,排放责任的区分日益公平合理,随着"碳转移"和"碳泄露"问题研究的深入,有关排放责任区分方法的研究逐渐在从生产视角向消费视角转变;第三,排放因素分解逐步深入,分解公式包括KAYA公式和投入产出公式,分解方法从指数法到平均对数法再到微积分法,分解模型日趋成熟和多元化;第四,排放预测模型也不断综合化、长期化,自上而下模型和自下而上模型逐渐相互借鉴和融合.在此基础上,笔者对我国CO_2排放研究提出了几点启发,即加快排放因子数据库建设,重视责任排放和结构分析研究,提高自主建模的水平和完善我国技术环境数据库等.以期提高我国对温室气体排放现状和历史的认识,在国际气候变化领域发挥积极的作用.     

Linking Ecological Sustainability and World Food Needs

Ecological approaches to agriculture can provide useful guidelines for addressing world food needs, while avoiding adverse environmental and social impacts. Experiments in both natural and agricultural ecosystems suggest that systems with high plant diversity may be more productive, more stable and more resilient than species-poor systems. In addition, systems with high plant diversity support higher levels of biodiversity in other functional groups, which may enhance the productivity of the plant component. Given these benefits of diverse systems, various approaches for converting conventional high input agricultural systems to more sustainable systems are addressed. Andow and Hidaka's (1989) concept of production syndromes is considered in the context of conversion to sustainable agriculture.     

基于博弈论的非点源污染控制模型探讨

随着对工业和城市生活污水等点源污染治理能力的不断增强,农业非点源污染对水质环境的影响日益凸现.相对于点源污染,非点源污染发生的不确定时间、不确定途径、不确定量等特点给治理政策的制定带来很大难度.本文从著名的公地悲剧现象出发,着力从市场博弈及政府监督博弈两个模型分析非点源污染制造者之间的博弈格局,并提出以“集体表现”的形式对非点源污染进行管理和控制.市场博弈模型中以一定的排污削减目标为前提,确定以成本最优的原则进行点源-非点源排污权交易是可行且有效率的；而政府监督博弈模型的结果显示:合理的环境补贴和惩罚机制、政府对自身声誉及公众形象的重视及维护对非点源污染治理起正向促进作用.     

我国农村现代化进程中的环境污染问题及对策研究

我国的农村现代化进展迅猛。但由于管理体系不畅、资金来源不足、扶持措施不力、治理模式不适，农村环境污染问题日趋突出。建议“十一五”期间统筹“生产发展、生活改善、生态良好”目标，在加大财政资金投入和转移支付力度的同时充分引入市场机制，并采取以下措施：点上治理和面上规划并重。加强农村环境保护基础体系建设，采用多种手段扶持有关基础设施的建设和运行，在工农业生产中贯彻循环经济理念并倡导污染集中治理模式。     

Research on the Green Culture of Chinese Enterprise

According to the general tendency of the development of enterprise cultural in the 21st century, more and more intense attentions will be paid on the enterprise culture. Thus, while the world green tendency and the green demand rise increasingly, the research on the green cultural management is becoming more important. The study of the green cultural management is not only of vital significance in promoting the continuous development of social economy, but also exchanging the way of the economic growth from extensive pattern to intensive pattern, improving the capacity of the competition and economic benefit of the company, and accelerating the international business. Moreover, the research has another significant importance in enriching and developing the science of enterprise of management.     

Climate Change Reporting in Great Lakes Region Newspapers: A Comparative Study of the Use of Expert Sources

This study focuses on the use of science sources as experts in news stories about climate change coverage in the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. We examine, using the hierarchy of influences model, whether the use of scientific sources in climate change coverage may be related to factors such as geographic location, reporting frequency, and authorship, in the prestige press as well as regional and local media. The study found that as many or more non-scientists than scientists are selected as sources regardless of geographic location, reporting frequency, or authorship. However, the study also found that the more stories reporters produce on this topic, the more likely their stories are to use and give prominence to science sources. In addition, the articles included few denier sources, but denier views are more likely to appear in a more prominent location in the articles than supporters when stories are framed as conflict over global warming. These results highlight the need for additional research examining the expertise of climate scientists in news stories to better understand news decision-making in the context of complex scientific reporting.     

湖北省降水变化分析

全面分析了湖北省７２个气象台站自建站有观测记录以来的降水资料后,发现全省降水差异较大,分布不均;不同年代之间降水变化亦存在一定的差异。东部和江汉平原６０,７０年代偏少,８０,９０年代偏多,鄂北,三峡河谷和鄂西南５０,７０和９０年代偏少,６０,８０年代偏多,全省平均为７０年你偏少,８０年代偏多。１９８０年以来东部地区降水偏多,降大雨以上的日数增多,西部地区则相反。     

可持续发展与地球表层的进化

包括非生物、生物和人的地球表层巨系统,是人的生存环境,它是进化发展的。人类社会只有认识并遵守地球表层的进化规律,才能达到可持续发展的目标。     

电力产业重构中的可再生能源政策——美国的经验

电力工业进行的市场化重构 ,对可再生能源来说 ,可能是一种机会 ,也可能意味着风险。主要的风险就是在不考虑外部性的情况下进行竞争将使可再生能源处于劣势。这种劣势将导致可再生能源发电量比改革前还少 ,同时大气污染更大 ,温室气体排放更多。但是如果采取适当的政策 ,新的市场也可以为可再生能源的发展创造更多的机会。本文在提出这个问题的基础上 ,介绍并分析了美国在进行电力产业重构时 ,为了促进可再生能源的发展所采用的系统效益费、可再生能源份额标准和绿色市场等三种政策方法     

Press Briefings in International Climate Change Negotiations

Press conferences are an important element of a government's communication strategy at climate change summits. From a theoretical perspective, press conferences should serve two main functions: exerting pressure in negotiations and informing the public. These functions correspond to two logics of action: a logic of consequence where governments use press conferences as negotiation tools and a logic of appropriateness where governments organize press conferences to increase transparency. Based on new data from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change archives, we find limited support for these two logics of action. Neither democracies, which, we argue, are more likely to follow a logic of appropriateness, nor vulnerable countries, which are more likely to follow a logic of consequence, organize systematically more press conferences. Other factors, such as capacity and a government's function in the negotiation structure, seem to play a more important role.     

城市可持续发展的关键自然资本研究

城市是社会、经济与环境相互作用最为集中与深刻的区域，随着城市环境问题的日益严重，城市可持续发展成为共同关注的焦点。自然资本在可持续发展体系中起到关键的作用，因此，识别城市系统的关键自然资本是实现城市可持续发展的前提。通过分析城市绿色空间的生态服务功能，结果表明绿色空间是影响城市可持续发展的重要的自然资本。在此基础上，提出了通过保护与投资于绿色空间两种途径实现城市可持续发展的措施与建议。     

生态足迹影响因子的定量分析

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧，使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源，同时向环境源源不断的输入废弃物，已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量，生态环境日益恶化，水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步，危及到人类自身的生存。在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天，人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题。在现有资料的基础上，利用主成分分析方法，定量地讨论了中国各省（区市）1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系。结果表明，生态足迹的大小是各省（区市）的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果，其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子，其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913。值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口，这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异，非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响。在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型，以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路。     

Effects of Land Use Changes on the Landscape Composition: A Comparison Between Finnish and Russian Karelia

During the last 50 years the practising and intensity of agriculture and forestry have differed considerably between Finnish and Russian Karelia. We studied the effects of different land use practices on the landscape composition in the two countries using the road transect sampling along four study routes (99-121 km) between 1997 and 1999. Effective environmental management in Finland has resulted in more distinct agricultural land types, more even distribution of the different age classes of forests, and the higher abundance of coniferous forests. Fields (mean percentage of the landscape: Finland 28%, Russia 13%), clearcuts and sapling stands (15%, 6%), and young forests (23%, 9%) were more typical elements of the Finnish landscape, whereas settlements (9%, 13%), semi-natural grasslands (3%, 7%), and mature forests (20%, 49%) were more characteristic of the Russian landscape. Landscape-level differences between the two countries may have various effects on the diversity of fauna and flora inhabiting Finnish and Russian Karelia.     

长三角地区经济一体化与土地资源管理

20世纪90年代初以来,长江三角洲地区的经济发展非常迅猛。该地区经济一体化正在加速向前推进,新一轮经济建设的高潮已经来临,这将会给土地资源特别是耕地资源带来强大的冲击。面对这一新的形势,从土地管理的角度来说,应采取必要的应对策略。具体来说,在正确处理好经济建设与保护土地资源的关系的前提下,应该积极、主动地为工业化、城市化及改善人民生活条件做好供地服务。与此同时,应牢牢把握保护土地资源特别是耕地资源这条主线不动摇,正确处理好构筑商务成本“盆地”与防止国有土地资产流失的关系,并进一步规范土地市场,完善土地招标拍卖制度,按照正确的“经营城市”理念,积极探索土地储备的新模式。此外,应高度重视失地农民的生活保障问题。     

Bridging the Maghreb’s water gap: from rationalizing the virtual water trade to enhancing the renewable energy desalination

The debate about the water resources shortages and finding appropriate solutions to close the water gap in many regions is still not finished. The Mediterranean region is among the most arid regions in the world and hosts more than the half of the world’s water-poor population. The situation is more severe in the southern shore of the Mediterranean, in particular, the Maghreb countries. In this region, water resources are very limited and polluted and most countries rely on groundwater yet overexploited. On the other hand, several factors, including rapid economic growth, expanding populations and changing climate, are driving up demand for water. This pushes forward the Maghreb countries to more and more rely on non-conventional and costly water resources such as wastewater treatment and desalination. Obviously, this bears a heavy burden on the economic growth within these countries. In this paper, rationalizing the virtual water trade and enhancing desalination using renewable energy are presented as two promising options to bridging the Maghreb’s water gap.     

生态足迹影响因子的定量分析--以中国各省(区市)1999年生态足迹为例

人口的膨胀和人类工业化进程的加剧,使得人类向自然界获取越来越多的资源,同时向环境源源不断地输入废弃物,已经严重超过了自然生态系统的供给能力和环境容量,生态环境日益恶化,水土流失、草场退化、植被消亡、生物多样性锐减、全球变暖等情况已经严重到难以遏制的地步,危及到人类自身的生存.在和平与发展成为世界两大主题的今天,人们越来越关注可持续发展的问题.在现有资料的基础上,利用主成分分析方法,定量地讨论了中国各省(区市)1999年生态足迹大小与其影响因子间的关系.结果表明,生态足迹的大小是各省(区市)的大中型企业个数、全社会固定生产投资等众多因子共同作用的结果,其中总人口和GDP是生态足迹大小的主要影响因子,其因子载荷量分别达到了0.940和0.913.值得一提的是非农业人口与生态足迹的相关系数超过了农业人口,这说明由于消费模式和生活水平等的差异,非农业人口对生态足迹的影响大于农业人口对生态足迹的影响.在此基础上建立了生态足迹影响因子的多元线性回归模型,以期为生态足迹在进行区域可持续发展评价的方法上提供新的思路.