基于灰色关联分析的车辆交通事故规律研究

针对车辆交通事故统计数据少、事故原因划分模糊等特点,运用灰色系统理论思想,建立车辆交通事故灰色关联分析模型。根据车辆交通事故起数、死亡人数、受伤人数与各事故原因之间的灰色关联度,计算车辆交通事故因素关联序,确定车辆交通事故各原因的重要程度。分析影响车辆交通事故的最优支配因素,并据此研究车辆交通事故规律。研究结果表明,部队汽车驾驶员交通违法是造成车辆交通事故的主要原因,违法违纪成为制约车辆安全管理的一个重点和难点问题。     

Motorcycle helmet effect on a per-crash basis in Thailand and the United States

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of motorcycle helmets seen in prospective on-the-street motorcycle accident investigations. The data are drawn from two detailed, in-depth studies of motorcycle accidents, in which trained investigators collected extensive accident evidence on-scene immediately after the crash. This article compares helmeted and unhelmeted motorcycle riders on a per-accident basis for fatality rates, the rate of serious (AIS > 2) brain injuries among survivors, or an outcome that involved either of the two. METHODS: Nine hundred motorcycle crashes in Los Angeles and 969 crashes in Thailand were investigated in detail at the accident scenes, including photos of vehicles, skids, damage, and sometimes the rider. Helmets were collected and injury information was obtained from riders and care providers. This evidence was then used to reconstruct collision events to identify speeds, precrash motions, collision contacts, injury causation, and helmet performance. RESULTS: In both studies, approximately 6% of riders were killed and 20-25% were hospitalized. Overall, unhelmeted riders were two to three times as likely to be killed, and three times as likely to suffer either death or survival with AIS > 2 brain injury. Unhelmeted survivors had three to four times as many AIS > 2 brain injuries as helmeted riders on a per-crash basis. Nearly 100% of riders with AIS > 4 somatic injuries died. Such injuries were 30% of Thailand fatalities and 57% of L.A. fatalities, but only about 2-3% of the overall accident population. Among the 97-98% of riders with AIS < 5 somatic injuries, helmet use could prevent about three-fourths of fatalities and brain injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Helmets were extremely effective in preventing brain injury and death in 97% of the accident population in less-than-extreme crashes. Helmet use cannot prevent all fatalities because many of those killed succumb to below-the-neck injuries that a helmet cannot prevent.     

Winter storm-related injuries in Oklahoma, January 2007

Introduction

A January 2007 ice storm occurred in Oklahoma, causing power outages and hazardous travel conditions. The objective of this investigation was to describe the nature of winter storm-related injuries among Oklahoma residents, to determine populations at risk, and to inform prevention-planning personnel.

Methods

Winter storm-related injuries were a temporarily reportable condition; all acute-care hospitals and the state medical examiner logged storm-related injuries and deaths during January 12 − 30, 2007. Medical records were retrospectively abstracted.Risk of injury was described by demographic group, injury type, and mechanism.

Results

Among 6,047 persons experiencing winter storm-related injuries, 74% were injured in falls, 13% in motor-vehicle collisions (MVCs), 8% while sledding, 1% by unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 1% in cleanup activities, and 3% by other mechanisms. Median age of injured persons was 39 years. Persons aged ≥ 40 years were 1.4 times more likely to experience falls as the cause of injury than those aged < 40 years, and falls were twice as likely as other mechanisms to cause fractures among persons aged ≥ 40 years. Injured persons aged < 40 years were 2.2 times more likely to experience MVC-related injuries, and 19 times more likely to experience sledding-related injuries than persons aged ≥ 40 years.

Conclusions

Younger persons were more likely injured in MVCs and sledding incidents, whereas older persons were more likely to experience falls and fractures.

Impact on industry

Prevention messages for winter storm-related injuries should target winter-driving safety tips to younger adults and precautions regarding falls to older adults.     

Traumatic brain injury-related hospitalizations and deaths among American Indians and Alaska natives — United States, 2008–2014

IntroductionDespite progress, injury remains the leading cause of preventable death for American Indian and Alaska Natives (AI/AN), aged 1 to 44. There are few publications on injuries among the AI/AN population, especially those on traumatic brain injury (TBI). A TBI can cause short- or long-term changes in cognition, communication, and/or emotion. Methods: To describe changes over time in TBI incidence by mechanism of injury, injury intent, and age group among AI/ANs, the CDC analyzed hospitalization and death data from the 2008–2014 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) National Inpatient Sample (NIS) and the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS), respectively. Results: From 2008-2014, the incidence of TBI-related hospitalizations increased by 32% (1,477 in 2008 to 1,945 in 2014) and resulted in a 21% increase in age-adjusted rates of people hospitalized with TBI. TBI-related deaths increased in number (569 in 2008 to 644 in 2014) and age-adjusted rate (22.7 in 2008 to 25.4 in 2014) by approximately 13% and 12%, respectively. Motor-vehicle crashes were the leading cause of TBI-related deaths among AI/ANs aged 0–54 years. Practical application: Prevention efforts should focus on increasing motor-vehicle safety and advancing prevention strategies for other leading causes of TBI, including: falls, intentional self-harm, and assaults.     

Potentially preventable prehospital deaths from motor vehicle collisions

Background: In 2011, about 30,000 people died in motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) in the United States. We sought to evaluate the causes of prehospital deaths related to MVCs and to assess whether these deaths were potentially preventable.

Methods: Miami–Dade Medical Examiner records for 2011 were reviewed for all prehospital deaths of occupants of 4-wheeled motor vehicle collisions. Injuries were categorized by affected organ and anatomic location of the body. Cases were reviewed by a panel of 2 trauma surgeons to determine cause of death and whether the death was potentially preventable. Time to death and hospital arrival times were determined using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 2002 to 2012, which allowed comparison of our local data to national prevalence estimates.

Results: Local data revealed that 39% of the 98 deaths reviewed were potentially preventable (PPD). Significantly more patients with PPD had neurotrauma as a cause of death compared to those with a nonpreventable death (NPD) (44.7% vs. 25.0%, P =.049). NPDs were significantly more likely to have combined neurotrauma and hemorrhage as cause of death compared to PPDs (45.0% vs. 10.5%, P <.001). NPDs were significantly more likely to have injuries to the chest, pelvis, or spine. NPDs also had significantly more injuries to the following organ systems: lung, cardiac, and vascular chest (all P <.05). In the nationally representative FARS data from 2002 to 2012, 30% of deaths occurred on scene and another 32% occurred within 1 h of injury. When comparing the 2011 FARS data for Miami–Dade to the remainder of the United States in that year, percentage of deaths when reported on scene (25 vs. 23%, respectively) and within 1 h of injury (35 vs. 32%, respectively) were similar.

Conclusions: Nationally, FARS data demonstrated that two thirds of all MVC deaths occurred within 1 h of injury. Over a third of prehospital MVC deaths were potentially preventable in our local sample. By examining injury patterns in PPDs, targeted intervention may be initiated.     

A 6-year survey of road traffic accidents in Southwest China: Emphasis on traumatic brain injury

Background: The objective of this study is to provide an up-to-date overview of the patterns of injuries, especially traumatic brain injury (TBI) caused by RTAs and to discuss some of the public health consequences. Methods: A scientific team was established to collect road traffic accidents occurring between 2013 and 2018 in Chongqing, Southwest China. For each accident, the environment-, vehicle-, and person- variables were analyzed and determined. The overall injury distribution and TBI patterns of four types of road users (driver, passenger, motorcyclist and pedestrian) were compared. The environmental and time distribution of accidents with TBI were shown by bar and pie chart. The risks of severe brain injury whether motorcyclist wearing helmets or not were compared and the risk factors of severe TBI in pedestrian were determined by odds ratio analysis. Results: This study enrolled 2131 accidents with 2741 persons of all kind of traffic participants, 1149 of them suffered AIS1+ head injury and 1598(58%) died in 7 days. The most common cause of deaths is due to head injury with 714(85%) and 1266(79%) persons died within 2 hours. Among 423 persons suffered both skull fracture and intracranial injury, 102 (24.1%) have an intracranial injury but no skull fractures, while none of the skull fractures without intracranial injury was found. Besides, motorcyclists without a helmet were at higher risks for all the brain injury categories. The risk of pedestrian suffering severe TBI at an impact speed of more than 70 km/h is 100 times higher than that with an impact speed of less than 40 km/h. Conclusion: It is urgently needed to develop a more reliable brain injury evaluation criterion for better protection of the road users. We believe that strengthening the emergency care to head injury at the scene is the most effective way to reduce traffic fatality.     

Head injuries in child pedestrian accidents--in-depth case analysis and reconstructions

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate head injuries, injury risks, and corresponding tolerance levels of children in car-to--child pedestrian collisions. METHODS: An in-depth accident analysis was carried out based on 23 accident cases involving child pedestrians. These cases were collected with detailed information about pedestrians, cars, and road environments. All 23 accidents were reconstructed using the MADYMO program with mathematical models of passenger cars and child pedestrians developed at Chalmers University of Technology. The contact properties of the car models were derived from the European New Car Assessment Program (EuroNCAP) subsystem tests. RESULTS: The accident analysis demonstrated that the head was the most frequently and severely injured body part of child pedestrians. Most accidents occurred at impact speeds lower than 40 km/h and 98% of the child pedestrians were impacted from the lateral direction. The initial postures of children at the moment of impact were identified. Nearly half (47%) of the children were running, which was remarkable compared with the situation of adult pedestrians. From accident reconstructions it was found that head impact conditions and injury severities were dependent on the shape and stiffness of the car front, impact velocity, and stature of the child pedestrian. Head injury criteria and corresponding tolerance levels were analyzed and discussed by correlating the calculated injury parameters with the injury outcomes in the accidents. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing head injuries should be set as a priority in the protection of child pedestrians. HIC is an important injury criterion for predicting the risks of head injuries in child pedestrian accidents. The tolerance level of head injuries can have a considerable variation due to individual differences of the child pedestrians. By setting a suitable speed limit and improving the design of car front, the head injury severities of child pedestrians can be reduced.     

基于APRIORI-TAN的交通事故伤害分析与预测*

为探究道路交通事故因素和事故伤害的相关性,以2 467起涉及人员伤亡的交通事故为数据集,运用Apriori算法分别挖掘事故伤害关联规则,并结合社会网络分析的可视化和核心-边缘分析构建受伤事故和死亡事故的关联规则网络。结果表明:事故伤害程度与事故时间、道路条件和交通环境等因素关系紧密,尤其死亡事故与碰撞固定物、人行横道事故、高速公路、高速道路、非市区、酒驾和超速存在高相关性。基于树型贝叶斯网络（TAN）构建事故伤害程度的预测模型,预测结果准确率可达87.56%。     

Unintentional injury deaths in children and youth, 2010–2019

Background: Unintentional injuries are the leading cause of death for children and youth aged 1–19 in the United States. The purpose of this report is to describe how unintentional injury death rates among children and youth aged 0–19 years have changed during 2010–2019. Method: CDC analyzed 2010–2019 data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) to determine two-year average annual number and rate of unintentional injury deaths for children and youth aged 0–19 years by sex, age group, race/ethnicity, mechanism, county urbanization level, and state. Results: From 2010–2011 to 2018–2019, unintentional injury death rates decreased 11% overall—representing over 1,100 fewer annual deaths. However, rates increased among some groups—including an increase in deaths due to suffocation among infants (20%) and increases in motor-vehicle traffic deaths among Black children (9%) and poisoning deaths among Black (37%) and Hispanic (50%) children. In 2018–2019, rates were higher for males than females (11.3 vs. 6.6 per 100,000 population), children aged < 1 and 15–19 years (31.9 and 16.8 per 100,000) than other age groups, among American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) and Blacks than Whites (19.4 and 12.4 vs. 9.0 per 100,000), motor-vehicle traffic (MVT) than other causes of injury (4.0 per 100,000), and rates increased as rurality increased (6.8 most urban [large central metro] vs. 17.8 most rural [non-core/non-metro] per 100,000). From 2010–2011 to 2018–2019, 49 states plus DC had stable or decreasing unintentional injury death rates; death rates increased only in California (8%)—driven by poisoning deaths. Conclusion and Practical Application: While the overall injury death rates improved, certain subgroups and their caregivers can benefit from focused prevention strategies, including infants and Black, Hispanic, and AIAN children. Focusing effective strategies to reduce suffocation, MVT, and poisoning deaths among those at disproportionate risk could further reduce unintentional injury deaths among children and youth in the next decade.     

Fatal occupational injuries in Jordan during the period 1980 through 1993

All fatal occupational injuries compensated by the Social Security Corporation (SSC) in Jordan during the period 1980–1993 were studied. Variables considered in the analysis included gender, age, nationality, occupation, salary, cause of injury, body part injured and cause of death. The overall fatality rate, of the 705 cases reviewed, was 25.5/100,000/year. The majority (98%) of fatalities were males. The risk of fatal injuries increased with age. Workers over 55 years, had the highest annual fatality rate (37.8). Immigrant workers had a higher fatality rate (32.26) than Jordanians (23.95). Unskilled workers constituted 58.3% of decedents and professionals had the highest fatality rate (52.9). Transportation sector had the highest fatality rate (122.4) followed by construction (50.6). Over the study period, fatality rates tended to decrease significantly in manufacturing, construction and trade economic sectors while no such trend was established by transportation, agriculture and services sectors. The leading causes of fatal injuries were motor-vehicle related accidents (63.0%) and fall of persons (11.1%). Head was the body part most injured and was involved in 46.6% of all deaths. Haemorrhage was the main reported cause of death (24.5%). It is concluded that intervention measures targeting specific occupations (transportation and construction) and causes of fatalities such as motor-vehicle incidents are needed.     

Investigation of accidents involving powered two wheelers and bicycles – A European in-depth study

Introduction: The number of road fatalities have been falling throughout the European Union (EU) over the past 20 years and most Member States have achieved an overall reduction. Research has mainly focused on protecting car occupants, with car occupant fatalities reducing significantly. However, recently there has been a plateauing in fatalities amongst ‘Vulnerable Road Users’ (VRUs), and in 2016 accidents involving VRUs accounted for nearly half of all EU road deaths. Method: The SaferWheels study collected in-depth data on 500 accidents involving Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) and bicycles across six European countries. A standard in-depth accident investigation methodology was used by each team. The Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) was used to systematically classify accident causation factors. Results: The most common causal factors related to errors in observation by the PTW/bicycle rider or the driver of the other vehicle, typically called ‘looked but failed to see’ accidents. Common scenarios involved the other vehicle turning or crossing in front of the PTW/bicycle. A quarter of serious or fatal injuries to PTW riders occurred in accidents where the rider lost control with no other vehicle involvement. Conclusions: Highly detailed data have been collected for 500 accidents involving PTWs or bicycles in the EU. These data can be further analyzed by researchers on a case-study basis to gain detailed insights on such accidents. Preliminary analysis suggests that ‘looked but failed to see’ remains a common cause, and in many cases the actions of the other vehicle were the critical factor, though PTW rider speed or inexperience played a role in some cases. Practical Applications: The collected data can be analyzed to better understand the characteristics and causes of accidents involving PTWs and bicycles in the EU. The results can be used to develop policies aimed at reducing road deaths and injuries to VRUs.     

A mechanism of injury to the forefoot in car crashes

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine a mechanism of injury of the forefoot due to impact loads and accelerations as noted in some frontal offset car crashes. METHODS: The impact tests conducted simulated knee-leg-foot entrapment, floor pan intrusions, whole-body deceleration, muscle tension, and foot/pedal interaction. Specimens were impacted at speeds of up to 16 m/s. To verify this injury mechanism research was conducted in an effort to produce Lisfranc type injuries and metatarsal fractures. A total of 54 lower legs of post-mortem human subjects were tested. Two possible mechanisms of injury were investigated. For the first mechanism the driver was assumed to be braking hard with the foot on the brake pedal and at 0 deg plantar flexion (Plantar Nominal Configuration) and the brake pedal was in contact with the foot behind the ball of the foot. The second mechanism was studied by having the ball of the foot either on the brake pedal or on the floorboard with the foot plantar-flexed 35 to 50 deg (Plantar Flexed Configuration). RESULTS: The Plantar Nominal injury mechanism yielded few injuries of the type the study set out to produce. Out of 13 specimens tested at speeds of 16 m/s, three had injuries of the metatarsal (MT) and tarsometatarsal joints. The Plantar Flexed Configuration injury mechanism yielded 65% injuries at high (12.5-16 m/s) and moderate (6-12 m/s) speeds. CONCLUSION: It is concluded that Lisfranc type foot injuries are the result of impacting the forefoot in the Plantar Flexed Configuration. The injuries were consistent with those reported by physicians treating accident victims and were verified by an orthopedic surgeon during post impact x-ray and autopsy. They included Lisfranc fractures, ligamentous disruptions, and metatarsal fractures.     

露天采石场边坡稳定因素浅析

忽视对露天采石场边坡稳定问题的分析研究,放松管理必然导致重大事故的发生。通过对1984—2001年河南省露天采矿场重、特大事故分析得出如下结论:18年间重特大事故共发生27起。分为两类,一类是放炮事故,一类是边坡坍塌事故。放炮事故3起、死亡13人,事故起数和死亡人数分别占11.11%和10.08%;坍塌事故24起、死亡116人,事故起数和死亡人数分别占88.89%和89.92%。统计分析和经验告诫:深入了解露天采石场边坡稳定因素,加强边坡管理是实现露天采石场安全生产的重中之重。     

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between the road deaths to road injuries ratio and economic growth

Introduction: Past empirical studies indicated that there is a Kuznets or reverse U-shaped relationship between road deaths and per capita income, such that the number of road death increases at a low level of per capita reverse U-shaped relationship was observed between road injuries and per capita income. While these studies explored the impact of per capita income on road deaths and road injuries, no studies have examined the relationship between per capita income and road death to road injury ratio (DPI). Method: Using a fixed effects panel regression analysis from 67 countries spanning over a period of five decades (1960–2013), the present study sought to explore the impact of per capita gross domestic product (per capita GDP) on the DPI ratio and the underlying factors responsible for the relationship. Results: Our result suggests that per capita GDP followed a reverse U-shaped relationship with DPI. Moreover, the relative improvements in higher mobility roads as compared to improvements in higher accessibility roads, motorcycle ownership to passenger car ownership ratio, percentage of population living in an urban area, infant mortality rate, and the percentage of population below 15 years of age and above 64 years of age contributed to this relationship. Practical Applications: This implies that, at lower level of economic growth where road deaths exceed road injuries, countries should implement low-cost measures to combat road deaths cases. Such measures include mandating wearing of quality helmets and daytime running headlights for motorcycles. On the other hand, at higher level of economic growth where road injuries surpass road deaths, countries are encouraged to devote more resources to improving medical technology and services to treat road injury victims, mandating seatbelt use, as well as enhancing and promoting public transportation service.     

森林消防人员防烟口罩的研究

在森林火灾死亡的人员中,80%以上致死原因是窒息死亡或烟熏昏迷倒地后被林火烧死的;在重伤人员中,绝大多数为呼吸道和肺部受伤者.基于上述原因,本课题研制了防烟口罩.该装备是用于个人呼吸安全防护,保障森林消防人员的扑火安全,避免伤亡事故的发生.     

Health Impact of Injuries: A Population-Based Epidemiological Investigation in a Local Community of Bangladesh

Due to the lack of valid injury data, the objective of this study was to assess the injury morbidity and mortality in a local community of Bangladesh. A population-based survey of 3,258 households was conducted in 1996. The information was collected by trained field-level health workers using three pretested structured forms. The estimated crude morbidity from injuries was 311 per 1,000 population per year, and injury accounted for 13% of all morbidity. The children and old-age groups experienced higher injury rates than others, and male children aged 5–15 years had the highest incidence rates (546/1,000 person-years). Falls and cutting injuries tended to be the most frequently (62.4%) observed types of injuries in this survey. The home (42%) and workplace (42%) were where most of the injuries occurred, and the majority (70.7%) of the injuries were minor. Of all deaths, mortality from injuries was 2.9%, and drowning (27.8%) and homicide (16.7%) were found as common forms of injury-causing deaths. This study invites more detailed investigation on injury morbidity and mortality.     

The analysis of influence of individual and environmental factors on 2-wheeled users’ injuries

Objective: Powered 2-wheeled motor vehicles (PTWs) are one of the most vulnerable categories of road users. Bearing that fact in mind, we have researched the effects of individual and environmental factors on the severity and type of injuries of PTW users. The aim was to recognize the circumstances that cause these accidents and take some preventive actions that would improve the level of road safety for PTWs.

Methods: In the period from 2001 to 2010, an analysis of 139 road accidents involving PTWs was made by the Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering in Belgrade. The effects of both individual (age, gender, etc.) and environmental factors (place of an accident, time of day, etc.) on the cause of accidents and severity and type of injuries of PTWs are reported in this article. Analyses of these effects were conducted using logistic regression, chi-square tests, and Pearson's correlation.

Results: Factors such as categories of road users, pavement conditions, place of accident, age, and time of day have a statistically significant effect on PTW injuries, whereas other factors (gender, road type; that is, straight or curvy) do not. The article also defines the interdependence of the occurrence of particular injuries at certain speeds. The results show that if PTW users died of a head injury, these were usually concurrent with chest injuries, injuries to internal organs, and limb injuries.

Conclusions: It has been shown that there is a high degree of influence of individual factors on the occurrence of accidents involving 2-wheelers (PTWs/bicycles) but with no statistically significant relation. Establishing the existence of such conditionalities enables identifying and defining factors that have an impact on the occurrence of traffic accidents involving bicyclists or PTWs. Such a link between individual factors and the occurrence of accidents makes it possible for system managers to take appropriate actions aimed at certain categories of 2-wheelers in order to reduce casualties in a particular area. The analysis showed that most of the road factors do not have a statistically significant effect on either category of 2-wheeler. Namely, the logistic regression analysis showed that there is a statistically significant effect of the place of accident on the occurrence of accidents involving bicyclists.