土地利用、覆被变化（LUCC）与环境变化关系研究进展

土地利用、覆被变化（LUCC）作为环境变化的主要原因之一,已成为全球变化研究的前沿和热点问题。文章总结了国内外 LUCC 与环境变化关系的主要研究成果和方法,继而从气候、碳循环、土壤环境、水环境以及生态环境对土地利用方式的限制等方面概括了 LUCC 与环境变化之间的关系。LUCC 通过改变大气成分和下垫面性质对气候造成影响;影响着陆地生态系统的碳循环;改变土壤的理化性质,带来土壤污染、土壤养分迁移等土壤质量问题;并且引起水体的非点源污染,影响区域的产水量和水循环。同时,环境变化对LUCC具有限制作用。不仅通过特定的气候环境直接限制土地的利用方式;还间接通过借助人类生态环境意识的改变,实现对区域土地利用强度与方式的约束。LUCC既是全球环境变化的原因,也是全球环境变化的结果。LUCC 与生态环境之间存在着复杂的、非线性的动态反馈关系。进一步探讨了当前 LUCC 与环境变化关系的主要研究方向和相关研究方法,针对目前存在的缺乏统一的指标体系,研究区域、时空尺度单一,以单要素静态研究为主,实验研究相对薄弱以及动态模拟不够等问题,提出加强跨学科综合交叉研究、注重多尺度探讨LUCC的环境效应、构建一个 LUCC 环境效应研究的统一指标体系及加强“3S”技术与模拟模型的融合等建议。为寻求更科学更合理的土地利用方式提供了基础信息。     

Framing the search for a theory of land use

ABSTRACT

Land system science and affiliated research linked to sustainability require improved understanding and theorization of land and its change as a social-ecological system (SES). The absence of a general land-use theory, anchored in the social subsystem but with explicit links to the environmental subsystem, hampers this effort. Drawing on land-use explanations, meta-analyses, and associated frameworks, we advance a broad framework structure of eight elements – aggregations of explanatory variables – with links to the biophysical subsystem, for systematic comparisons of extant explanations. Tests and models can be employed to identify which set of variables and their configurations provide robust explanations of across land uses, identifying the potential for theory development. The framework and its application are applicable to both top-down and bottom-up explanatory approaches employed in the social sciences. Links to the environmental subsystem invite future exploration of SES explanations that reach across the different dimensions of global change and sustainability science.     

森林土地利用变化及其对碳循环的影响

由于人口剧增，人类活动的影响不断加大，在过去100年全球土地利用／土地覆被发生了巨大的变化。最常见的土地利用变化是由森林转变为农业用地。森林砍伐使森林生态系统地上部生物量大大减少，砍伐后作农业用地，降低了植被生产力，减少了土壤有机质的输入，增强了腐殖质的矿化作用，有机质分解速率增加，有机碳贮量随之降低，从而影响到森林生态系统的碳循环，使大量碳元素释放到大气中，引起温室效应，导致全球变暖。另一个常见的土地利用变化是植树造林和森林恢复，这一过程可以增加森林生态系统的碳储量，从而减缓大气CO2体积分数的上升。     

Temporal and spatial patterns and driving factors of cultivated land change in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

随着经济快速发展、城镇化进程加快以及人口基数不断增加,在城市用地不断向外扩张以及生态退耕措施的影响下,耕地面积呈逐年减小的趋势.这一现象加剧了农业发展与其他要素间的矛盾,对区域粮食安全也产生重要影响,因此,探讨耕地面积时空变化及其驱动机制对保障区域粮食安全具有现实意义.分析青藏高原地区1980年、1990年、2000年、2010年、2018年的耕地面积数据,结合户籍人口、地区生产总值(GDP)、粮食单产等统计年鉴资料解析影响其变化的主要驱动因子.结果表明:(1)青藏高原近40年耕地面积变化总体经历缓慢增加、显著增加和缓慢递减3个阶段,整个变化过程中耕地主要流失方向为林地和草地,分别占总流失面积的50.99%和32.02%,主要原因为退耕还林还草等政策的实施,其次为建设用地和水域增加.(2)耕地转为非耕地的地区主要集中在四川西部、云南西北部、青海东部,而耕地转入地区主要集中在青藏高原中部.以地市州来看,拉萨、海东、海西、阿坝、林芝等地区耕地面积变化特征以缓慢递增为主;西宁、黄南、甘孜、甘南等地区的耕地面积则呈缓慢递减的变化趋势.(3)主成分分析和结构方程模型结果显示影响耕地面积减少的主要驱动因素包括经济社会发展和粮食生产.其中经济和社会因素对耕地面积变化产生的影响为负值,社会因素产生的负影响最大,为-0.224,人口基数增长、建设用地扩张、土地利用转型要求以及二、三产业红利的吸引都会导致耕地面积减小.本研究揭示了青藏高原地区近40年耕地变化情况及流失方向,耕地面积波动主要受到经济社会因素以及政策因素的影响;上述结果可为今后国家粮食安全及当地生态环境可持续发展提供理论参考.(图7表8参45)     

Who owns the Earth? A challenge for the land system science community

ABSTRACT

Reflecting on the 2019 Open Science Meeting of the Global Land Program and on commentaries since, we argue that the time is ripe for the land system science community to fully embrace the thorny issue of land ownership and control. Beyond land governance and institutions, the issue of who actually owns and controls land, and how land holding and rents are distributed across society, is central to the future of sustainability initiatives, biodiversity protection, social justice, climate change mitigation, and long-term food security and sovereignty. By explicitly tracking and visualizing just Who Owns the Earth, the land system science community could provide much-needed data and insights to inform public debate and advance political action in these arenas.     

Multi-temporal land use and cover changing analysis: the environmental impact in Mediterranean area

ABSTRACT

Human activity shapes the levels of anthropogenic pressure that depend on the land management method adopted. This has a fundamental role in the transformation of traditional landscapes. This study focuses on a representative region of the Mediterranean area with the objective to analyse the landscape’s dynamics, to detect the spatial arrangement of class patches, to identify the main agroecosystem characters and to provide a framework to assess ecosystems services. In order to assess land use/land cover changes and landscape persistence, the period between 1960 and 2012 was analysed, taking into consideration the years 1960, 2000 and 2012 using comparable land use maps. Land use and land cover analysis show an urban area growth of 24% during 2000–2012 and of 523% over between 1960 and 2012. The very high levels of land abandonment up to the year 2000 (+7216%) have reversed their trend between 2000 and 2012 (?95%). The orchards showed a relevant increase, particularly after 2000, while the vineyards were linked to the highest value of surface erosion (?74%). The outcomes showed that urban settlements can damage the ecological network with negative effects on the landscape’s environmental sustainability in proximity of significant urban centres. Instead, the ecological network is well preserved and highly associated to the agricultural areas when there is the persistence of many land uses and low urban density, despite the presence of dynamic changes.     

Exploring long-term land cover changes in an urban region of southern Europe

This paper addresses two important issues for large Mediterranean city regions: the differential impact of compact urban ‘growth’ and low-density ‘sprawl’ on land cover changes (LCCs), and their final effect on changing land cover relationships (LCRs). The urban expansion of Rome (Italy) during the last 50 years and the related LCCs were investigated as a paradigmatic example of compact versus dispersed urban development. LCCs were assessed over 5 years (1960, 1974, 1990, 2000, 2006) by analysing diachronically the distribution of 12 land cover categories derived from digital land cover maps covering the entire Nuts-3 prefecture of Rome (5353 km²). LCRs were studied using multi-way data analysis. LCCs were found to have relative differences during ‘growth’ (1960–1990) and ‘sprawl’ (1990–2006) phases. Conversion to urban land uses concentrated in the 1960s and 1970s at the urban fringe, while expanding progressively far from the city in the 1990s and 2000s. During the ‘growth’ phase, the land cover classes with the highest probability of being converted to urban uses were arable lands, annual crops, vineyards and pastures. During the ‘sprawl’ phase, olive groves, orchards and forest surfaces also decreased due to the development of low-density built-up areas and infrastructure. Planning suggestions aimed at mitigating the alteration of the rural landscape through sprawl conditions are discussed.     

Trees and rural households’ adaptation to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia

This study assesses the role of trees in adaptation strategies of rural households to local environmental change in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Change in tree cover was assessed by producing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps using satellite remote sensing images, and household survey was conducted to generate socioeconomic data. The results show that tree cover has increased over the last 30 years, mostly in the form of eucalyptus woodlots around homesteads. Eucalyptus reportedly helps households pass through livelihood shocks and provide protection against negative effects of climate change and variability. Despite some concerns on the part of local agricultural experts that planting eucalyptus may affect future food production, farmers are converting their croplands into eucalyptus woodlots. We conclude that land use planning and proper allocation of land resource is important to improve local livelihoods while also supporting adaptation of communities to local environmental change in general and climate change in particular.     

坝上地区土地利用与覆被变化对土壤养分的影响

坝上地区是典型的农牧交错带 ,生态环境十分脆弱。研究表明 ,解放后 ,该区土地利用与土地覆被状况经历了多次反复的变动。 2 0世纪 80年代以前 ,草地大规模改变为旱地 ,部分改为林地 ;90年代初 ,旱地又逐步被改为草地、林地和水田使用。土地利用与土地覆被的变化引起土壤中有机质、全N、全P、全K、碱解N以及有效态P、K、B、Mo、Mn、Zn、Cu和Fe等养分呈有规律的改变。当土地由草地变为林地、旱地变为林地、旱地变为水田时 ,总体养分增多。但也有例外 ,尤其是碱解N、速效P和速效K以及微量元素 ,有时出现与上述规律不一致的情况。     

1996—2006年武汉市土地利用/覆被变化研究

以武汉市为研究区,利用1996和2006年Landsat5的TM影像解译结果,基于GIS空间分析与数理统计方法定量研究了1996—2006年11年间的武汉市土地利用/覆被变化。研究结果表明：（1）1996—2006年期间,武汉市土地利用覆被总体特征表现出耕地、草地和未利用地减少,林地、水域和建设用地面积增加的态势;（2）这11年间耕地转化为林地、建设用地和水域这3种变化类型分布最为广泛,转换率最大;（3）11年来武汉市土地利用综合动态度变化幅度较大,并呈缓慢上升趋势。土地利用年变化速度达到1.25%;（4）1996—2006年武汉市土地利用程度逐年提高,土地利用程度变化量和变化率均大于0,说明武汉市处于土地利用发展时期,土地利用集约度会进一步提高。     

Invisible territory: mapping land-use change and power in the Peruvian Amazon

ABSTRACT

This paper follows the evolution of the discourse of agricultural productivity, from its inception in colonial land-use mapping to current land-use changes, using a case study of the expansion of an oil palm company onto the territory of an indigenous community in the Peruvian Amazon that caused large-scale deforestation. Drawing on analytical tools of political ecology and insights from historical geographythis paper shows how current soil and land classification, forest usufruct rules, and forest designations under the 2011 Forest and Wildlife law stem from a colonial discourse of agricultural productivity. This discourse excludes other forms of land-use, such as indigenous forest management, and the identities and relationships bound up in those. This research contributes to an understanding of how the processes that seek to quantify and determine land-use change are historically embedded in western ideas of agricultural productivity.     

Agency and structure: a grounded theory approach to explain land-use change in the Mindo and western foothills of Pichincha,Ecuador

ABSTRACT

Although life and land decisions are individual, driven by perceptions of reality, they reflect broader social processes. This research aims to understand relevant land-use change processes and the context within which land-use change occurs in the study area. For this, we employ grounded theory techniques and procedures to analyze narratives and life history interviews. Based on these narratives, we re-construct past land-use changes. Additionally, we identify structural conditions that drive change, several dimensions of change, including cultural-cognitive dimensions, and future discourses. The identified structural conditions motivate changes in concepts, actions, and practices, in land-use, and institutions, eventually leading to generational changes. Further research is needed to examine how the so-called structural conditions producing change varies in different settings and contexts. These findings can provide insight into certain patterns and knowledge that may contribute to community planning, policy design, and the conception of sustainable solutions with more grounded knowledge.     

An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe

ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.     

Simulation of soil carbon changes due to land use change in urban areas in China

Land use change can have a strong impact on soil carbon dynamics and carbon stocks in urban areas. Due to rapid urbanization, large areas of land have been paved, and other areas have undergone rapid land use change. Evaluation of the impact of urbanization on carbon dynamics and carbon stock (30 cm) has become an issue of urgent concern. The soil carbon dynamics, due to rapid land use change in Tianjin Binhai New Area of China, have been simulated in this paper using the RothC model. Because this area is saline, a modified version of RothC that includes a salt rate modifier provided more accurate simulations than the original model. The conversion to urban green land was not accurately simulated by either of the models because of the undefined changes in soil and plant conditions. According to the model, changes of arable to grassland resulted in a decline in soil carbon stocks, and changes of grassland to forest and grassland to arable resulted in increased soil carbon stocks in this area. Across the whole area simulated, the total carbon stocks in 2010 had decreased due to land use change by 6.5% from the 1979 value. By 2050, a further decrease of 21.9% is expected according to the 2050 plan for land use and the continuing losses from the soils due to previous land use changes.     

区域土地资源优化配置及其可持续利用

从土地利用优化配置入手，介绍了其基本内涵和研究进展，阐述了土地资源可持续利用的途径与目标以及评价方法，建立了区域土地利用持续评价模式。     

A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Reduction in global habitat loss from fossil-fuel-dependent increases in cropland productivity

Terrestrial biodiversity loss and climate change, driven mainly by loss of habitat to agriculture and fossil fuel (FF) use, respectively, are considered among the world's greatest environmental threats. However, FF-dependent technologies are currently essential for manufacturing synthetic nitrogen fertilizers (SNFs) and synthetic pesticides (SPs) critical to increasing agricultural productivity, which reduces habitat loss. Fossil fuel use increases CO₂ levels, further enhancing agricultural productivity. Based on estimates of global increases in yields from SNFs, SPs, and atmospheric CO₂ fertilization, I estimated that FF-dependent technologies are responsible for at least 62.5% of current global food production (GFP) from cropland. Thus, if FF use is eschewed in the future, maintaining current GFP means croplands would have to increase from 12.2% of global land area (GLA) excluding Antarctica to 32.7%. The additional 20.4% of GLA needed exceeds habitat lost currently to cropland (12.2% of GLA) and cumulative conservation areas globally (14.6% of GLA). Thus, although eliminating FF use could reduce climate change, its unintended consequences may be to significantly exacerbate biodiversity loss and indirectly increase food costs, reducing food security which, moreover, disproportionately affects the poor. Although it may be possible to replace SNFs and SPs with FF-free technologies, such substitutes have not yet been demonstrated to be sufficiently economical or efficient. In the interim, meeting global food demand and keeping food prices affordable would increase habitat conversion and food prices. These trade-offs should be considered in analyses of climate change policies.     

Can the 2050 zero land take objective of the EU be reliably monitored? A comparative study

The European Union has defined an ambitious objective for the future concerning sustainable land use to stop the process of land take by 2050. But can this objective be reliably monitored? In this paper, which is based on the case study of Luxembourg and the neighbouring regions, we show that the tools that are used to monitor land-take produce different results that prevent from comparing the figures from one region to another. Moreover, a comparison of the strategic documents related to land use in this cross-border region shows that land-use policies are the product of very different contexts and relationships towards land as a resource, which need to be addressed with tailored strategies.     

Quantifying cultural values associated with deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

This study analyzes the distribution of cultural values associated with forest and non-forest landscapes among stakeholder groups shaping land use and land cover change (LULCC) in an agricultural/forest frontier in the western Brazilian Amazon. The study addresses theoretical and methodological obstacles to the integration of cultural data and social science research into the study of LULCC, providing a simple, systematic, and more accurate way of understanding this missing feature of land change. The findings offer insights on elusive cultural features that influence how diverse actors make land use decisions and respond to drivers, and can thus contribute to enhancing the predictive capacity of land change research.     

Tropical amphibians in shifting thermal landscapes under land‐use and climate change

Land‐cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land‐cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT_max). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land‐cover types and CT_max of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat‐specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT_max exceeded their habitat‐specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land‐cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land‐cover and climate‐change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business‐as‐usual land‐cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7‐ to 4.5‐fold greater losses in TSH area than land‐cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest‐restricted species had lower mean CT_max than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land‐cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species.