Determining the size of a complete disturbance landscape: multi-scale,continental analysis of forest change

The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km². We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process.     

Hurricane Katrina-induced forest damage in relation to ecological factors at landscape scale

Forest stand stability to strong winds such as hurricanes has been found to be associated with a number of forest, soil and topography factors. In this study, through applying geographic information system (GIS) and logit regression, we assessed effects of forest characteristics and site conditions on pattern, severity and probability of Hurricane Katrina disturbance to forests in the Lower Pearl River Valley, USA. The factors included forest type, forest coverage, stand density, soil great group, elevation, slope, aspect, and stream buffer zone. Results showed that Hurricane Katrina damaged 60% of the total forested land in the region. The distribution and intensity of the hurricane disturbance varied across the landscape, with the bottomland hardwood forests on river floodplains most severely affected. All these factors had a variety of effects on vulnerability of the forests to the hurricane disturbance and thereby spatial patterns of the disturbance. Soil groups and stand factors including forest types, forest coverage and stand density contributed to 85% of accuracy in modeling the probability of the hurricane disturbance to forests in this region. Besides assessment of Katrina's damage, this study elucidates the great usefulness of remote sensing and GIS techniques combined with statistics modeling in assessment of large-scale risks of hurricane damage to coastal forests.     

Attributes of reliable long-term landscape-scale studies: Malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists

Monitoring long-term change in forested landscapes is an intimidating challenge with considerable practical, methodological, and theoretical limitations. Current field approaches used to assess vegetation change at the plot-to-stand scales and nationwide forest monitoring programs may not be appropriate at landscape scales. We emphasize that few vegetation monitoring programs (and, thus, study design models) are designed to detect spatial and temporal trends at landscape scales. Based primarily on advice from many sources, and trial and error, we identify 14 attributes of a reliable long-term landscape monitoring program: malpractice insurance for landscape ecologists. The attributes are to: secure long-term funding and commitment; develop flexible goals; refine objectives; pay adequate attention to information management; take an experimental approach to sampling design; obtain peer-review and statistical review of research proposals and publications; avoid bias in selection of long-term plot locations; insure adequate spatial replication; insure adequate temporal replication; synthesize retrospective, experimental, and related studies; blend theoretical and empirical models with the means to validate both; obtain periodic research program evaluation; integrate and synthesize with larger and smaller scale research, inventory, and monitoring programs; and develop an extensive outreach program. Using these 14 attributes as a guide, we describe one approach to assess the potential effect of global change on the vegetation of the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. This self-evaluation helps identify strengthes and weaknesses in our program, and may serve the same role for other landscape ecologists in other programs.     

A Spatial Model to Estimate Habitat Fragmentation and Its Consequences on Long-Term Persistence of Animal Populations

The increasing use of the landscape by humans has led to important diminutions of natural surfaces. The remaining patches of wild habitat are small and isolated from each other among a matrix of inhospitable land-uses. This habitat fragmentation, by disabling population movements and stopping their spread to new habitats, is a major threat to the survival of numerous plant and animal species. We developed a general model, adaptable for specific species, capable of identifying suitable habitat patches within fragmented landscapes and investigating the capacity of populations to move between these patches. This approach combines GIS analysis of a landscape, with spatial dynamic modeling. Suitable habitat is identified using a threshold area to perimeter ratio. Potential movement pathways of species between habitat patches are modeled using a cellular automaton. Habitat connectivity is estimated by overlaying habitat patches with movement pathways. The maximum potential population is calculated within and between connected habitat patches and potential risk of inbreeding within meta-populations is considered. The model was tested on a sample map and applied to scenario maps of predicted land-use change in the Peoria Tri-county region (IL). It (1) showed area of natural area alone was insufficient to estimate the consequences on animal populations; (2) underscored the necessity to use approaches investigating the effect of land-use change spatially through the landscape and the importance of considering species-specific life history characteristics; and (3) highlighted the model's potential utility as an indicator of species likelihood to be affected negatively by land-use scenarios and therefore requiring detailed investigation.     

Retrospective assessment of dryland soil stability in relation to grazing and climate change

Accelerated soil erosion is an aspect of dryland degradation that is affected by repeated intense drought events and land management activities such as commercial livestock grazing. A soil stability index (SSI) that detects the erosion status and susceptibility of a landscape at the pixel level, i.e., stable, erosional, or depositional pixels, was derived from the spectral properties of an archived time series (from 1972 to 1997) of Landsat satellite data of a commercial ranch in northeastern Utah. The SSI was retrospectively validated with contemporary field measures of soil organic matter and erosion status that was surveyed by US federal land management agencies. Catastrophe theory provided the conceptual framework for retrospective assessment of the impact of commercial grazing and soil water availability on the SSI. The overall SSI trend was from an eroding landscape in the early drier 1970s towards stable conditions in the wetter mid-1980s and late 1990s. The landscape catastrophically shifted towards an extreme eroding state that was coincident with the “The Great North American Drought of 1988”. Periods of landscape stability and trajectories toward stability were coincident with extremely wet El Niño events. Commercial grazing had less correlation with soil stability than drought conditions. However, the landscape became more susceptible to erosion events under multiple droughts and grazing. Land managers now have nearly a year warning of El Niño and La Niña events and can adjust their management decisions according to predicted landscape erosion conditions.     

Desertification Evaluated Using an Integrated Environmental Assessment Model

Desertification has been defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities (United Nations, 1992). A technique for identifying and assessing areas at risk fordesertification in the arid, semi-arid, and subhumid regionsof the United States was developed by the Desert Research Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), using selected environmental indicators integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). Five indicators were selected: potential erosion, grazing pressure, climatic stress (expressed as a function of changesin the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]), change invegetation greenness (derived from the Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index [NDVI]), and weedy invasives as a percentof total plant cover. The data were integrated over aregional geographic setting using a GIS, which facilitateddata display, development and exploration of data relationships, including manipulation and simulation testing. By combining all five data layers, landscapes having a varying risk for land degradation were identified, providing a tool which could be used to improve landmanagement efficiency.     

Composite use of numerical groundwater flow modeling and geoinformatics techniques for monitoring Indus Basin aquifer, Pakistan

The integration of the Geographic Information System (GIS) with groundwater modeling and satellite remote sensing capabilities has provided an efficient way of analyzing and monitoring groundwater behavior and its associated land conditions. A 3-dimensional finite element model (Feflow) has been used for regional groundwater flow modeling of Upper Chaj Doab in Indus Basin, Pakistan. The approach of using GIS techniques that partially fulfill the data requirements and define the parameters of existing hydrologic models was adopted. The numerical groundwater flow model is developed to configure the groundwater equipotential surface, hydraulic head gradient, and estimation of the groundwater budget of the aquifer. GIS is used for spatial database development, integration with a remote sensing, and numerical groundwater flow modeling capabilities. The thematic layers of soils, land use, hydrology, infrastructure, and climate were developed using GIS. The Arcview GIS software is used as additive tool to develop supportive data for numerical groundwater flow modeling and integration and presentation of image processing and modeling results. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to simulate future changes in piezometric heads from the period 2006 to 2020. Different scenarios were developed to study the impact of extreme climatic conditions (drought/flood) and variable groundwater abstraction on the regional groundwater system. The model results indicated a significant response in watertable due to external influential factors. The developed model provides an effective tool for evaluating better management options for monitoring future groundwater development in the study area.     

太湖流域景观生态风险评估

在GIS和RS技术支持下,以遥感数据和土地利用数据为基础,以行政区划为评价单元,构建景观生态风险评价模型,定量评价了研究区内景观生态风险的时空动态变化特征。结果表明,较低风险区主要分布于以苕溪为主的山地丘陵区,中等风险区主要分布于农业发达的平原区,较高风险区及高风险区主要集中于沿湖经济发达区。     

Monitoring Australian Rangeland Sites Using Landscape Function Indicators and Ground- and Remote-Based Techniques

If the goal for managing rangelands is to achieve a balance between production and conservation, then monitoring is essential to detect change and apply corrective action. In some range-land areas of northern Australia, monitoring has detected a tilt in the production-conservation balance towards excessive production. How big is this imbalance? Can it shift back? Robust monitoring is needed to answer these questions. The aim is to know what to monitor, and where. For example, to detect changes caused by livestock on rangeland forage production and soil erosion, indicators linking grazing disturbances to landscape function are needed, that is, indicators that signal how well landscapes are capturing, concentrating, and utilizing scarce water, nutrient, and organic resources. Studies in Australia and the USA document that simple vegetation and soil patch attributes can be measured as indicators of the 'state of health' of landscape function. For example, field and remote sensing-based grazing studies in Australia document that landscapes with a high cover of perennial plant patches function effectively to capture runoff water and nutrients in sediments, whereas landscapes with a low cover of these patches do not — they are dysfunctional — as indicated by large patches of bare soil. Aerial videography is proving to be a robust technique for measuring indicators of landscape function such as small patches of vegetation and the extent of bare soil. These indicators typically have a sigmoidal response to grazing impacts. We illustrate that if these indicators are measured on monitoring sites established near the sigmoidal 'point of inflection’ then small changes in these indicators can be detected.     

Spatial distributions and eco-partitioning of soil biogeochemical properties in the Everglades National Park

Large-scale ecosystem restoration efforts, such as those in the Florida Everglades, can be long-term and resource intensive. To gauge success, restoration efforts must have a means to evaluate positive or negative results of instituted activities. Edaphic properties across the Everglades landscape have been determined to be a valuable metric for such evaluation, and as such, a baseline condition from which to make future comparisons and track ecosystem response is necessary. The objectives of this work were to document this baseline condition in the southern most hydrologic unit of the Everglades, Everglades National Park (ENP), and to determine if significant eco-partitioning of soil attributes exists that would suggest the need to focus monitoring efforts in particular eco-types within the ENP landscape. A total of 342 sites were sampled via soil coring and parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), total carbon (TC), total calcium, total magnesium, and bulk density were measured at three depth increments in the soil profile (floc, 0-10 cm, and 10-20 cm). Geostatistical analysis and GIS applications were employed to interpolate site-specific biogeochemical properties of soils across the entire extent of the ENP. Spatial patterns and eco-type comparisons suggest TC and TN to be highest in Shark River Slough (SRS) and the mangrove interface (MI), following trends of greatest organic soil accumulation. However, TP patterns suggest greatest storages in MI, SRS, and western marl and wet prairies. Eco-partitioning of soil constituents suggest local drivers of geology and hydrology are significant in determining potential areas to focus monitoring for future change detection.     

Assessing the impact of multiple drivers of land sensitivity to desertification in a Mediterranean country

Experiencing climate changes and increased human pressure, Mediterranean regions are considered representative hotspots of desertification. However, relatively few studies have been devoted to quantify the individual impact of different factors shaping land sensitivity to desertification in these contexts. Our study contributes to this deserving (positive and normative) issue with a diachronic analysis of the impact of multiple drivers of desertification risk on six indicators of land sensitivity based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area (ESA) approach. Indicators (average and maximum ESA score, coefficient of variation and normalized range in the ESA scores, share of ‘fragile’ and ‘critical’ areas in total landscape) were calculated in 777 rural districts of Italy at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, and early-2010s). Multivariate models were used to determine the impact of 12 predictors (climate, soil, vegetation, and land management quality) on each indicator of land sensitivity. Results of the analysis identified two non-redundant dimensions respectively associated with the average level of land sensitivity and its intrinsic variability across space. Impacts of climate and vegetation qualities on the level of land sensitivity were high, decreasing over time, and more intense respectively in Northern and Southern Italy. Impacts of soil and land management qualities were moderate, increasing over time, and involving almost all the country's area. Our study emphasizes the role of context-based measures promoting sustainable land management. The ‘local’ dimension proved to be crucial in any strategy of risk mitigation undertaken at disaggregated spatial scales.     

Analysis of terrains suitable for tourism and recreation by using geographic information system (GIS)

The use and utilization areas of geographic information system (GIS) increase every day due to both enabling easiness in storing, updating, grouping, analyzing, correlating, and mapping of data about evaluation factors in planning studies and having quite low error margin depending on the accuracy of data stored. In fact, GIS is also used both in visualization and in various analyses in planning tourism terrains. In this study, the effectiveness of GIS on holistic evaluation of natural and cultural resources in planning tourism terrains was analyzed. Natural and cultural resources in Kayseri Yahyal? were quantified by using ArcGIS 9.3 software from GIS software; data were analyzed and potential tourism and recreation terrains, level of suitability, and rate of coverage were determined. As a result of the analyses, it was determined that 11.847 ha area (6,53 %) was quite suitable for such kind of activities, 103.010 ha (56,77 %) was suitable, 39.278 ha (21,65 %) was less suitable, and 27.314 ha area (15,05 %) was not suitable. In the next stage, landscape properties which are suitable for tourism and recreation were evaluated and landscape types were classified in the sense of their tourist attraction. It was determined that the water resources and valley landscapes were the basic sources of the tourism and recreation activities of Yahyal?, and it was determined that the landscape of the forest and mountain was important for variety of the tourism and recreation activities of Yahyal?.     

Indicators of wetland condition for the prairie pothole region of the United States

We describe a study designed to evaluate the performance ofwetland condition indicators of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR)of the north central United States. Basin and landscape scaleindicators were tested in 1992 and 1993 to determine theirability to discriminate between the influences of grasslanddominated and cropland dominated landscapes in the PPR. Pairedplots were selected from each of the major regions of the PPR.Among the landscape scale indicators tested, those most capableof distinguishing between the two landscapes were: 1) frequencyof drained wetland basins, 2) total length of drainage ditch perplot, 3) amount of exposed soil in the upland subject to erosion,4) indices of change in area of wetland covered by water, and5) number of breeding duck pairs. Basin scale indicators includingsoil phosphorus concentrations and invertebrate taxa richnessshowed some promise; however, plant species richness was the onlystatistically significant basin scale indicator distinguishinggrassland dominated from cropland dominated landscapes. Althoughour study found a number of promising candidate indicators, oneof our conclusions is that basin scale indicators present anumber of implementation problems, including: skill levelrequirements, site access denials, and recession of site accessby landowners. Alternatively, we suggest that the use oflandscape indicators based on remote sensing can be an effectivemeans of assessing wetland integrity.     

Evaluating Spatio-temporal Complexities of Forest Management: An Integrated Agent-based Modeling and GIS Approach

The objective of this study is to integrate agent-based modeling and geographic information systems (GIS) for examining how interactions within forest management lead to patterns of land-cover change. Specifically, this study evaluates how management agents behave in the presence of variable timber prices, harvesting costs, and accessibility to timber and how their actions influence the spatial characteristics of the forest landscape over time. The GIS calculates the average harvested patch size, number of patches, and total harvested area as measures of emergent patterns resulting from agent actions. The results from the agent-based GIS model reveal that good economic conditions lead to few but large harvested patches, while deteriorating conditions will see more patches of smaller size if forest companies have access to high-quality timber. This study emphasizes the need for a complex systems approach to forest management as the model illustrates how system elements interact in a manner to produce emergent spatial patterns over time.     

Using dual classifications in the development of avian wetland indices of biological integrity for wetlands in West Virginia, USA

Considerable resources are being used to develop and implement bioassessment methods for wetlands to ensure that “biological integrity” is maintained under the United States Clean Water Act. Previous research has demonstrated that avian composition is susceptible to human impairments at multiple spatial scales. Using a site-specific disturbance gradient, we built avian wetland indices of biological integrity (AW-IBI) specific to two wetland classification schemes, one based on vegetative structure and the other based on the wetland’s position in the landscape and sources of water. The resulting class-specific AW-IBI was comprised of one to four metrics that varied in their sensitivity to the disturbance gradient. Some of these metrics were specific to only one of the classification schemes, whereas others could discriminate varying levels of disturbance regardless of classification scheme. Overall, all of the derived biological indices specific to the vegetative structure-based classes of wetlands had a significant relation with the disturbance gradient; however, the biological index derived for floodplain wetlands exhibited a more consistent response to a local disturbance gradient. We suspect that the consistency of this response is due to the inherent nature of the connectivity of available habitat in floodplain wetlands.     

An evaluation of grid size uncertainty in empirical soil loss modeling with digital elevation models

This paper presents a study on the effect of topographic variability on grid-based empirical estimation of soil erosion and sediment transport with raster geographic information systems (GIS). An original digital elevation model (DEM) of 10 m resolution for a case watershed is resampled to six realizations of greater grid sizes for a comparative examination. The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and a distance-based sediment delivery equation are applied to the watershed to calculate soil loss from each cell and total sediment transport to streams, respectively. The results suggest that the selection of the DEM gird size has considerable influence on the soil loss estimation with the empirical models. The estimate of total soil loss from the watershed decreases significantly with the increasing DEM cell size as the spatial variability is reduced by the cell aggregation. The empirical modeling approach is a useful tool for qualitative assessment of soil erosion, provided that spatial variability can be adequately represented by applied DEMs. However, discretion is suggested for its applications to quantitative estimation of soil loss concerning the sensitivity to the grid size selection.     

Rabbit Population Landscape-Scale Simulation to Investigate the Relevance of Using Rabbits in Regulatory Environmental Risk Assessment

This paper describes the development and testing of the ALMaSS rabbit model and its baseline, and subsequently its application to the question of lagomorph population vulnerability in environmental risk assessment (ERA). Development and testing following a pattern-oriented modelling protocol resulted in a model able to replicate local and landscape-level rabbit population patterns. We then tested how robust rabbit populations are to an (imaginary) extreme toxic stressor at a landscape level in a variety of landscapes, and to what extremes key uncertain model parameters must be pushed to cause extinctions. This was contrasted with the same (imaginary) toxic stressor applied to the already existing ALMaSS hare model. For EU risk assessment of plant protection products, these results clearly indicate that if the protection goal is population-level impacts, either in abundance and/or distribution, then the hare is a much more vulnerable species than the rabbit under all the conditions tested. Rabbits would only be more vulnerable than hares if the entire population were to be exposed simultaneously, when lower body mass would then be a critical factor. This did not occur even though the toxicant and exposure scenarios tested here were extreme and, in fragmented landscapes at scales used here, will not occur in reality from the use of plant protection products on crop fields. As well as specifically answering the question on rabbit versus hare vulnerability, this study generally illustrates the potential application of models for setting focal species for risk assessments.     

Landscape ecological planning through a multi-scale characterization of pattern: studies in the Western Ghats,South India

This article analyzes landscape pattern in the WesternGhats mountain ranges in south-western India at two scales,comparing small-scale, detailed studies of landscapepattern, with broader, regional-scale assessments of theWestern Ghats. Due in large part to their inaccessibility,relatively little is known about the landscapes of thisbiodiverse region, which also supports some of the highestpopulation densities in the world. A broad-scale NDVI-basedIRS 1B satellite image classification is used to analyzenorth-south and east-west trends across the entire WesternGhats and western coast of India, an area over 170 000 km². Northern and eastern landscapes are morefragmented compared to the southern and western slopes.Western slopes also have greater landscape diversity withland cover types more interspersed compared to the easternslopes. These differences can be related to north-south andeast-west variations in rainfall and plant distribution. Data from thirteen landscapes 10–50 km² in area, arefurther utilized to analyze trends in landscape pattern, anddescribe the geographical distribution of major natural andmanaged ecotope types. At this scale, very high levels ofintra-ecotope type variability in landscape pattern areencountered for all land cover types. Results at these twoscales are integrated to suggest a hierarchical stratifiedapproach for monitoring land cover and biodiversity in the region.     

Soil microbial characteristics at the monitoring plots on windthrow areas of the Tatra National Park (Slovakia): their assessment as environmental indicators

This study focused on the responses of soil microorganisms to different management regimes on disturbed windthrow areas. Microbial parameters potentially serving as indicators of environmental changes within a long-term monitoring of forest development after large-scale disturbance events were assessed. Basal and substrate-induced respiration, N mineralisation, catalase activity, microbial biomass as well as functional diversity based on Biolog assay were determined in soil samples from three disturbed plots and an undisturbed reference plot in the Tatra National Park (Slovakia) since 2006. A relative congruence of inter-annual trends of microbial activity indicators at all plots results from a common response of microbiota to changes of climate at the landscape level after forest stands were destroyed. While catalase activity and functional diversity proved to be useful indicators of temporal trends, microbial biomass seems to reflect different management regimes at the disturbed plots.     

A Landscape Ecology Assessment of the Tensas River Basin

A group of landscape ecological indicators were applied to biophysical data masked to the Tensas River Basin. The indicators were used to identify and prioritize sources of nutrients in a Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System sub-basin. Remotely sensed data were used for change detection assessment. With these methods, we were able to look at land use practices over the past twenty years in the Tensas River Basin of Louisiana. A simple land use classification was applied to multispectral scanner (MSS) data from 1972 and 1991. The landscape analysis methods described in this paper will show how to use these methods to assess the impact of human land use practices that are being implemented to improve environmental quality. Landscape assessment methods can be used as a simple, timely, cost effective approach for monitoring, targeting, and modeling ecosystem health in watersheds. Although this study was conducted in the southeast, the methods described in this paper may be applicable to western landscapes.