1993年江西省洪涝灾害分析

１９９３年江西省发生了较严重的洪涝灾害。本文阐述了灾情，从自然因素和人为因素两个方面，分析了造成洪涝灾害的原因；并对今后如何搞好江西省洪涝灾害减灾，提出若干看法与建议。     

试论洞庭湖区的洪涝灾害及其减灾对策

洞庭湖区频繁而严重的洪涝灾害是其孕灾环境的易灾性及承灾体较低的承灾能力共同决定的．减轻洞庭湖区的洪涝灾害应实行“治江、控制四水与洞庭湖本身治理”三位一体的综合整治战略．     

1996年江西省洪涝灾害的对策及启示

简要论述了1996年江西省境内发生的4次严重的洪涝灾害,总结防汛减灾中的成功经验;针对洪涝灾害抗灾救灾中存在的几个主要问题,探讨今后防讯减灾对策。     

区域水灾恢复力及水灾风险管理研究——以湖南省洞庭湖区为例

近年来灾害恢复力研究在领域的拓展和定义的延伸等方面取得了较大的进步。灾害恢复力作为系统的一个有价值的属性，与风险、脆弱性和适应性一起成为当前灾害综合管理和减灾研究的重要内容。但目前灾害恢复力研究仍停留在理论和概念层面，鲜有深入的实际操作性强的工作开展。为进一步理解水灾恢复力的内涵和实质，为区域恢复力建设提供切实可行的方案，作者在原有对灾害恢复力研究进展进行综述的基础上，开展了以湖南省洞庭湖区为例的洪水高风险区水灾恢复力理论和实践的研究，提出了由自然维、经济维、组织维、社会维组成的四维区域水灾恢复力概念模型，然后细致分析了区域水灾恢复力利益主体的相互关系，提供了初步的区域水灾恢复力评估模型。最后在定性分析的基础上，对洞庭湖区区域水灾风险管理进行了探讨，提出了相应的管理对策和建议，旨在为政府的防灾减灾决策提供科学依据。     

太湖流域洪涝的激发机制和减灾策略探讨

太湖流域洪涝灾害的形成包括自然和人为两方面的机制。自然机制有：①年降雨量较大，且降雨时空分布不均，暴雨强度大；②地势周高中低，平原海拔低，河流比降小。人为机制有：①围垦缩小了流域蓄水面积；②地下水开采和高层建筑造成地面沉降；③土地非农业化使地表可渗透性面积减少。并提出洪涝威胁的发展趋势及减灾对策。     

洪水灾害评估体系研究

从系统论的观点出发，提出了洪水灾害系统的概念，并结合洪水灾害评估的特点，设计了洪水灾害评估体系的总体框架。     

从湖泊水域环境异变论洞庭湖区洪涝灾害

分析了洞庭湖泥沙淤积，人类活动的合成作用而导致湖泊水域环境界变及其对洪涝灾害的负效应。并从改善湖泊水域环境的角度上，提出了节制进口，疏浚河湖，稳定湖面和扩大出口等有效治理途径，以尽快提高洞庭湖区的防洪排涝能力。     

洪水等级和灾情划分问题

洪水等级是描述一次洪水大小的指标，而洪水灾度是描述一次洪水造成损失大小的指标。这两个指标从理论和应用方面来说都具有许多优点，概念明确，简单易行。     

太湖流域洪涝灾害损失模拟及预测

太湖流域是我国经济最发达的地区之一，当遭受洪涝灾害后，经济损失极为严重。本文采用地理信息系统方法，模拟了１９９１年洪涝灾害的淹没决策提供了依据。根据预测，当２０１０年在发生１９９１年型特大洪涝淹没时，灾害经济损失将可高达７７３亿元，约为１９９１年７倍，因此太湖的防洪任务极为严峻。     

灾害损失组合年景研究

根据陕西解放以来的灾害损失资料，将各种灾害造成的成灾面积、人口死亡、房屋倒塌和水、旱、风雹、病虫害、霜冻以及其它灾害造成的农田成灾面积分成４和５个档次，用人工神经网络方法进行聚类，可分成５个不同的灾害损失组合年，其代表了不同损失特点，有助于对各年定量评价灾害年景。分析这些不同损失组合类型的降水特征，可通过对降水的预报来预测可能出现的灾害组合，从而为重点防御某种或某几种灾害损失指明方向。     

从广西1994年特大洪灾谈非工程防洪措施

本文根据广西各地１９９４年洪灾的具体情况，深入分析了工程防洪措施的局限性及非工程防洪措施存在的问题，提出了加强广西非工程措施的重点是加强民众水患意识教育，广泛开展洪水多发区的洪水风险评估并加强土地管理，建立先进的洪水预报预警系统及完善的洪水保险业务。     

湖南省主要自然灾害及减灾策略

本文概述了湖南省的干旱、洪涝、低温冷害、冰雹、风灾、冰冻、农业病虫害、森林火灾水土流失、地震等主要自然灾害的时空分布特征及其对国民经济的影响,并对主要灾害的发展作出了预测,最后提出了减灾策略。     

Disaster in the South Paciic: Impact of tropical cyclone "Nomu" on the Solomon Islands, May 1986

Tropical Cyclone "Namu" struck the Pacific nation of the Solomon Islands during 18-20th May 1986. It was sthe most serious natural disaster in the Solomons in lining memory. Nearly a third of the total population of 267,000 were diriven from their homes and 150 people were killed, with damage estimates beginning in AUD 25 million. It has been estimated by the Solomon Islands Ministry of Economic Planning that it will take seven years for the economy to recover. This paper discusses the major events of the disaster episode by employing the Powell and Rayner model of "disaster-time." Factors relating to current disaster Planning and management within the Solomon Islands are outlined. The paper also highlights assistance provided by Australla during the Post-impact sequence and illustrates the type of general disaster preparatory support which Australia provides to South pacific.     

Evaluation of Long-term Community Recovery from Hurricane Andrew: Sources of Assistance Received by Population Sub-groups

Two three-stage cluster surveys were conducted in South Dade County, Florida, 14 months apart, to assess recovery following Hurricane Andrew. Response rates were 75 per cent and 84 per cent. Sources of assistance used in recovery from Hurricane Andrew differed according to race, per capita income, ethnicity, and education. Reports of improved living situation post-hurricane were not associated with receiving relief assistance, but reports of a worse situation were associated with loss of income, being exploited, or job loss. The number of households reporting problems with crime and community violence doubled between the two surveys. Disaster relief efforts had less impact on subjective long-term recovery than did job or income loss or housing repair difficulties. Existing sources of assistance were used more often than specific post-hurricane relief resources. The demographic make-up of a community may determine which are the most effective means to inform them after a disaster and what sources of assistance may be useful.     

Measuring disaster recovery: bouncing back or reaching the counterfactual state?

How should one measure the recovery of a locale from a disaster? The measurement is crucial from a public policy and administration standpoint to determine which places should receive disaster assistance, and it affects the performance evaluation of disaster recovery programmes. This paper compares two approaches to measuring recovery: (i) bouncing back to pre‐disaster conditions; and (ii) attaining the counterfactual state. The former centres on returning to normalcy following disaster‐induced losses, whereas the latter focuses on attaining the state, using quasi‐experimental design, which would have existed if the disaster had not occurred. Both are employed here to assess two housing recovery indicators (total new units and their valuations) in Hurricane Katrina‐affected counties (rural and urban). The examination reveals significantly different outcomes for the two approaches: counties have not returned to their pre‐disaster housing conditions, but they do exhibit counterfactual recovery. Moreover, rural counties may not be as vulnerable as assumed in the disaster recovery literature.     

中国洪水灾后恢复重建行动与理论探讨

基于中国洪水灾后恢复重建的实践 ,总结了中国洪灾灾后恢复重建的结构体系 ,并依此讨论了洪水灾后恢复重建的若干理论和实践问题。文章指出 ,应明确洪水灾后恢复重建与备灾和防灾的关系 ,并提出了洪水灾后恢复重建的结构体系与程序。     

试析洪水灾害增长的社会因素

自然灾害的本质属性是社会问题。社会的发展,环境的改变以至防洪工程的兴建都影响以至增大灾害的损失。因此,减轻洪水灾害的有效途径,一方面要尽可能控制自然态洪水的泛滥,另一方面则应调整社会的发展布局、有关的对策和实践活动以适应洪水。我国的防洪方针应进一步从单纯注重调动工程手段去控制洪水,向工程与非工程防洪相结合的方向发展,动员全社会投入,从而有效地提高防洪减灾的能力。     

秦淮河流域洪水变化规律和防洪减灾对策

本文应用数理统计和波谱分析等方法,探讨了秦淮河流域洪水变化规律,并针对流域防洪系统中存在的问题,提出了相应的防洪减灾对策。     

中国水灾风险综合管理--平衡大都市区水灾致灾强度与脆弱性

中国大都市区主要分布在大江大河的中下游地区,由于区域土地利用格局的巨大变化,特别是较多的水域和湿地因城市化而被占据,因此,一方面大都市区面临严重的洪水危险,另一方面为了使大都市区尽可能减轻洪水灾害,而加强了防洪能力的建设.然而,近50年的减灾实践证明,洪水灾害却在波动中趋于上升,即大都市区对洪水的脆弱性在增大.在对中国大都市区洪水灾害的区域分析基础上,以广东省为例,构造了综合水灾致灾因子和承灾体为一体的风险评估模型体系,以此提出了平衡大都市区水灾致灾强度与脆弱性的基本土地利用模式,和"政府-企业(社区)-保险公司"相结合的企业风险管理模式.