Using artificial neural network for reservoir eutrophication prediction

Reservoirs provide approximately 70% of water supply for domestic and industrial use in Taiwan. The water quality of reservoirs is now one of the key factors in the operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Transient weather patterns result in highly variable magnitudes of precipitation and thereby sharp fluctuations in the surface elevation of the reservoirs. In addition, excessive watershed development in the past two decades has contributed to continuing increase in nutrient loads to the reservoirs. The difficulty in quantifying watershed nutrient loads and uncentainties in kinetic mechanism in the water column present a technical challenge to the mass balance based modeling of reservoir eutrophication. This study offers an alternative approach to quantifying the cause-and-effect relationship in reservoir eutrophication with a data-driven method, i.e., capturing non-linear relationships among the water quality variables in the reservoir. A commonly used back-propagation neural network was used to relate the key factors that influence a number of water quality indicators such as dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), and secchi disk depth (SD) in a reservoir in central Taiwan. Study results show that the neural network is able to predict these indicators with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the neural network is a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.     

An economic model of soil conservation/depletion

Land is defined in terms of its qualitative characteristics in order to focus upon conservation/depletion decisions made with respect to the soil. The qualitative definition of land involves a capital component (total nitrogen content) and a Ricardian component (total precipitation). The economic model developed utilizes neoclassical capital theory to describe individual behavior in a conservation/depletion context. An important concept to the system is that of user cost; it is this concept which provides an economic rationale for fallow, a decision which requires the entrepreneur to forego static income as well as depleting the soil.     

Extraction timing and economic incentives for geothermal reservoir management

This article considers the best extraction program for a hot water geothermal reservoir with emphasis on the optimal time to begin extraction. Using a production function relating the rate of extraction to the quality of produced energy, an operational model is presented that gives the best time to begin production, the optimal pumping rate and the best planning horizon. Also investigated is the effect of economic parameters and incentives on these decision variables. This paper studies some means by which regulatory agencies can influence the timing and rate of exploitation of geothermal energy by manipulating economic incentives, and provides information for both public and private decision making in the management of this resource.     

Application of a three-dimensional eutrophication model for the Beijing Guanting Reservoir, China

The Beijing Guanting Reservoir (BGR) is located northwest of Beijing and has been an important water supply reservoir ever since the construction of a dam near the town of Guanting in 1954. As a result of excessive nutrients and organic carbon loadings from the drainage basin over the last several decades, the BGR suffers from eutrophication as well as other contamination problems and has not been used as a drinking water supply reservoir since 1997. As a management step to restore the reservoir's water quality, a numerical model was developed based on the environmental fluid dynamics code (EFDC) framework. The model simulated three phytoplankton species based on the observed cyanobacteria, green algae, and diatom concentrations in 2004 for the Yongding arm of the reservoir, which is separated from the rest of the reservoir by a sand bar. The model was calibrated with vertical temperature profiles as well as the observed chlorophyll a and nutrients concentrations in the water column. The calibrated model was further applied to investigate management scenarios, which include reduction in external loadings of nutrients with constructed wetlands, biomanipulation, and transferring water from CeTian Reservoir. All three scenarios can reduce the peak chlorophyll a levels in the reservoir. The background nutrients were high, and reducing the external nutrients was effective only after a reduction in background nutrients after phytoplankton growth. The biomanipulation and water transfer scenarios could also delay the occurrence of the peak chlorophyll a. Because the model was developed based on one year of data, the model can only reveal the short-term effects of applying the management scenarios. Future studies will consider the long-term processes, such as diagenesis, when data are available to predict the long-term effects of the scenarios.     

应用于水文预报的优化BP神经网络研究

利用广东省滨江流域的水文观测资料，建立了以前期降水量为预报因子、以水位为输出的BP人工神经网络水文预报模型。首先采用了合理的方法进行样本组织，进而利用最优子集回归技术进行输入因子的确定，然后进行了不同隐层节点数、不同转移函数、不同训练算法的组合试验，确定了应用于水文预报中的优化BP神经网络：网络结构为8-9-1；转移函数的组合方式为tansig-线性函数；训练算法为采用evenberg-Marquardt(Lm)算法。为便于精度分析，还采用了最优子集回归模型作了研究。结果表明，优化BP网络模型无论在拟合精度还是在预测精度上都高于最优子集模型。总的来说BP网络是一种精度较高的水文预测模型。     

Spatial economic theory of pollution control

In February 1972 the Nixon Administration proposed a tax on sulfur oxide emissions, beyond the Federal standards, of electric power plants. It was hoped that such a tax would discourage power plant locations in heavily polluted areas like urban areas. Assuming that such a tax varies over space because pollution is not invariant over space, the spatial theory of the firm is presented in this paper cast doubt on the efficacy of such a polltuion tax to achieve the desired goal of the administration. In particular it is shown that the cost-minimizing spatial firm would abate its pollution in response to a tax by either changing its location or by reducing waste through process change or by using a transportable abatement good if the tax savings due to the change in marginal abatement through location change per unit change in abatement is greater than or equal to transport rate on the abatement good. If the goal of the firm is to maximize profits, the desired outcome would follow if in addition to the fulfillment of the above condition the percentage change in the delivered price of raw material (situated at one end of the linear location space) per unit distance is greater than or equal to the percentage change in net marginal revenue, i.e., marginal revenue net of transport cost per unit of output. In simple terms, the conclusions of this paper raise doubts regarding the effectiveness of a pollution tax in curtailing pollution of a firm which is operating in a space economy. This outcome is peculiar to a spatial firm. Sufficient conditions also have been obtained when land input is included in the production function of the firm.     

Multiseasonal management of an agricultural pest II: the economic optimization problem

The problem of selecting a pesticide application strategy in the face of increasing resistance to the pesticide in the pest population is dealt with. The grower in this situation may do better by sacrificing a portion of the present crop in return for a reduced resistance to future applications. The model presented represents an attempt to forge a compromise between excessive complexity, rendering the model difficult to study, and excessive simplicity, rendering the model useless. The effects of timing of the application of the pesticide within the season are discussed. The principle conclusions are the following: (i) If immigration of pests from refugia is significant then proper timing of the application of pesticide may be used to help alleviate resistance growth. (ii) Resistance growth may best be reduced by spraying earlier than what would otherwise be the best time. (iii) The value of the discount rate (and of the time horizon) has a profound effect on the nature of the optimal policy.     

人工湿地处理富营养化水体的效果研究

通过在北京市野生动物救护中心构建表流湿地与潜流湿地相结合的复合人工湿地处理富营养化水体,研究该复合人工湿地对总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）及水体浊度的去除效果。结果表明：人工湿地对TP的去除效果好于对TN的去除效果,经过人工湿地处理的富营养化水体,表流湿地、潜流湿地和复合人工湿地对TP的平均去除率可分别达42%、55%、60%,对TN的平均去除率分别为27%、30%、34%,对水体浊度的平均去除率分别达43%、55%、75%。复合人工湿地对TP、TN以及浊度的去除效果受水体温度和溶解氧（DO）的影响,通过相关性分析发现,TP、TN和浊度的去除量与水体中的DO水平之间存在显著的负相关性,而与水体温度有正相关性,在显著性水平为0.05的条件下,相关系数分别为-0.829、-0.767、-0.765和0.674、0.757、0.774。复合人工湿地对TP、TN及浊度的去除率高于表流湿地和潜流湿地,表明复合人工湿地具有优于表流湿地和潜流湿地的整体性功能,能有效提高人工湿地对TN、TP以及浊度的去除率。     

An experiment on the economic value of visibility

This paper reports on the development and application of an iterative bidding technique to examine proposed visibility reductions in the Four Corners Region of the southwest United States. The iterative bidding technique is a method to elicit honest bids for “goods” not priced in formal markets. Four issues associated with direct revelation of preferences for environmental goods are explored: (1) the establishment of linkages between the physical parameters of visibility and representation of the “good” called visibility to individuals for valuation purposes; (2) a systematic test for both observed and induced biases associated with the interative bidding technique; (3) replication of the results of previous experiments; and (4) reporting of empirical divergences between compensating and equivalent surplus measures of consumer surplus.     

An empirical analysis of economic strategies for controlling air pollution

In evaluating current environmental protection policy, economists often note that current regulations are more costly than necessary to meet environmental quality standards. While the a priori case is strong that current regulatory approaches are resulting in higher-than-necessary costs to attain environmental standards, there is relatively little empirical evidence to support this claim. The purpose of this paper is to supply some of the missing evidence by presenting the results of one study that assesses some of the potential savings associated with implementing economic, rather than command-and-control, regulatory approaches to abate one type of air pollution in one region of the country. Specifically, the paper examines the costs of meeting a prospective short-term standard for nitrogen dioxide under a range of alternative emissions control strategies for stationary sources of nitrogen oxide emissions in the Chicago Air Quality Control Region. The alternative strategies that are considered range from those that might result under current regulatory policy to those that economic policy approaches (such as emissions charges or marketable permits) are designed to implement. The analysis shows that the most efficient program of emissions controls may be more than an order of magnitude less costly than current regulatory strategies, and that economic approaches have additional advantages over more conventional regulatory approaches.     

Development of categorical mapping for quantitative assessment of eutrophication

Spatial distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton variables is often illustrated using categorical mapping for each variable. However, the assessment of eutrophication cannot be derived from a single parameter since a synthesis of the environmental variables related to eutrophication is required. These shortcomings are further complicated since it is difficult to discriminate between distinct trophic states along natural environmental gradients. In the present work, a methodological procedure for quantitative assessment of eutrophication at a spatial scale was examined in the Gulf of Saronicos, Greece, based on a thematic map generated from the synthesis of four variables characterising eutrophication. The categorical map of each variable was developed using the Kriging interpolation method and four trophic levels were indicated (eutrophic, upper-mesotrophic, lower-mesotrophic and oligotrophic) based on nutrient and phytoplankton concentration scaling. Multi-criteria choice methods were applied to generate a final categorical map showing the four trophic levels in the area. This synthesis of categorical maps for assessing eutrophication at a spatial scale is proposed as a methodological procedure appropriate for coastal management studies.     

A model for the analysis of seasonal aspects of water quality control

A multiseasonal mathematical programming model for the analysis of water quality control within a river basin is presented. Phenomena of interseasonal variation in flow intensity and the river's pollutant assimilative capacity are introduced into the model by defining several seasons and their characterizations by seasonal parameters. An application of the model to a typical case situation is reported. The results suggest that seasonal adjustments in the treatment levels of wastewater treatment plants involve a considerable saving potential in comparison with a situation in which treatment levels are rigidly determined for the entire year.     

A simple economic model of endangered species preservation in the United States

Concern for the acceleration in threats to species diversity in the United States led to the passage of the Endangered Species Act of 1973. In this paper, this legislation is examined in an economic context. A simple model is developed where management and constraints on economic activity are substitutes in the production of species stocks. Whether economic growth constraints (the primary policy tool of the 1973 Act) are justified for preservation purposes depends on technical substitution possibilities, relative cost ratios, and the existence of budget constraints for species management. Since the same combination of these factors will not occur for all species, it is argued that more flexibility in endangered species policy may preserve the same levels of species stocks at lower costs to society.     

An inverse model for the analysis of the Venice lagoon food web

A steady-state model of the Venice lagoon food web was constructed, based on a comprehensive set of data, which were collected in the years 2001-2005. Energy flows were estimated by means of an inverse methodology of constrained optimization based on the Minimum Norm criterion, i.e. on the minimization of both the sum of squares of the residuals and of the sum of squares of energy flows. The solution was constrained by a set inequalities, which were derived from general eco-physiological knowledge and site specific data on energy flows. The trophic network was represented by thirty-two nodes, including single-species compartments for the species of high economical or ecological relevance. Mass balance equations were weighted, in order to obtain meaningful results in presence of large differences, up to 5 orders of magnitude, among biomasses. A perturbation technique was applied, with the purpose of reducing the risk of finding solutions heavily affected by the set of constraints and of obtaining a more robust representation of the energy flows. The main patterns of energy flow are consistent with those obtained in previous attempts at modelling the Venice lagoon food web. Micro- and macro-phytobenthos account for the largest fraction of the primary production. Energy is then transferred towards higher trophic levels by means of two main pathways: the recycling of dead biomass through the detritus compartment and the direct consumption by grazers. The first pathway is the most important and accounts for approximately two/thirds of the energy transferred to the second trophic level.     

富营养化水体中菹草光合荧光特性研究

用NH4Cl、NaNO3、KH2PO4配置不同氮磷浓度的试验水,将菹草(Potamogeton cripus)分别移栽于上述水体中,观测菹草在各水体中的生长发育状况,并用水下饱和脉冲叶绿素荧光仪(Diving-PAM)测定菹草光合作用PSII有效荧光产量(Y)、光化学荧光淬灭系数(qP)、非光化学荧光淬灭系数(qN)等指标。结果表明:在TN<2mg·L-1,TP<0.4mg·L-1,Chla<118mg·m-3试验水体中,菹草长势良好,株高增加了51.2%、46.6%,叶片数增大了57.7%、58.1%;在营养盐质量浓度很高(TN8mg·L-1,TP0.8mg·L-1)、藻类生物量极高(Chla421mg·m-3)的水体中,菹草的生长受到抑制,并出现死亡。Y、qP、qN的值说明了在TN<2mg·L-1,TP<0.4mg·L-1,Chla<118mg·m-3水体中,菹草叶片吸收的光能更多的参与光化学反应,光合作用增大。高营养盐质量浓度(TN8mg·L-1,TP0.8mg·L-1,Chla421mg·m-3)水体中的菹草叶片将大部分光能用于热耗散,光合作用降低。快速光响应曲线同时也说明各水体中,菹草的最小饱和光强(Ek)都为176μmol·m-2s-1,但高营养盐质量浓度(TN8mg·L-1,TP0.8mg·L-1,Chla421mg·m-3)水体中的菹草叶片的最大光电子传递速率(rETR-max)明显低于其他水体,随着水体中营养盐浓度的升高,菹草耐光抑制能力显著降低。     

城市生态工业系统模拟、优化调控方法研究

工业化是城市实现现代化与可持续发展的必经阶段,但面临着严重的资源与环境问题。生态工业是实现生产发展、资源利用和环境保护良性循环的有效模式。文章在依据工业生态学原理对长春经济技术开发区玉米、汽车零部件产业链进行规划基础上,采用系统动力学vensim模型进行模拟与优化调控。最后结合灰色系统方法完成系统多种替代方案的多级评价,促进以工业代谢过程为核心的资源高效利用和环境影响最小化。结果表明,所建立的长春经济技术开发区生态工业系统动力学仿真模型可对其结构、功能进行分析,确定不同子系统间的动态作用关系,并得到不同规划方案时变条件下的发展结果。结合灰色聚类评估能够定量地反映系统在不同发展战略下的行为,并确定最优方案,具有较强可操作性。长春经济技术开发区生态环境现状较好,但随着经济发展和人口聚集,环境压力将加大,就此问题提出相应环境影响减缓和保护措施。     

A simulation model of carbon and oxygen dynamics in a reservoir

The CORES model represents the long-term carbon and oxygen dynamics of the Conowingo Reservoir. The model, formulated using subsetted historical data, is readily validated using the remaining historical data for all state variables of importance. Sensitivity analyses make it clear that the flux of particulate organic carbon from upstream sources and its subsequent “trapping” and metabolism in the deeper regions of the reservoir are the major factors controlling the oxygen declines historically observed in the summer months. Increased natural vertical mixing (i.e., transport of oxygen from shallow to deep waters) can increase deep-water oxygen concentrations to some extent, but not to the degree necessary to meet water quality standards. Air-to-water diffusion adds substantial quantities of oxygen to surface waters in these mixing events. Simple solutions, such as requiring continuous flow, do not appear to adequately increase the dissolved oxygen levels in the deeper portion of the reservoir.     

A general process-based mass-balance model for phosphorus/eutrophication as a tool to estimate historical reference values for key bioindicators,as exemplified using data for the Gulf of Riga

This work describes how a general, process-based mass-balance model (CoastMab) for phosphorus for coastal areas may be used as a tool to estimate realistic values of “natural” or preindustrial reference levels of key bioindicators in coastal science, including the Secchi depth, a standard measure of water clarity, the chlorophyll-a concentration, an operational measure of phytoplankton biomass and the concentration of cyanobacteria, a measure of the concentration of harmful algae. The CoastMab-model is an ecosystem model giving monthly predictions to achieve seasonal variations of basin-wide properties. The selected case-study area, the Gulf of Riga, is sensitive to nutrient loading because of its shallowness and low openness towards the Baltic Proper. The morphometry of any coastal area, as given by the size and form parameters, influences all internal processes, such as sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion in water and from sediments to water, biouptake and retention in biota, stratification, mixing and outflow. There has been no mass-balance modeling for nitrogen (N) in this work because empirical data (from the HELCOM database) clearly indicate that the monthly primary production in the Gulf of Riga is regulated by phosphorus (P) – the mean monthly total-N to total-P ratios are well over 7.2 (the Redfield-ratio) and generally higher than 15 for the data used in this study (from 1992 to 2005). At present anthropogenic loads, the average modeled monthly values for Secchi depth, chlorophyll (Chl), cyanobacteria (CB) and total-P (TP) are 3.2 m, 3.8 μg/l, 78 μg/l and 31.3 μg/l, respectively. If 50% of all anthropogenic sources to the Gulf of Riga via rivers, point sources and diffuse sources were to be removed, these values would be 3.6 m, 3.4 μg Chl/l, 63 μg CB/l and 29.1 μg TP/l. If 60% of the anthropogenic phosphorus fluxes to the Baltic Proper were to be omitted and as well as 75% of all direct anthropogenic sources to the Gulf of Riga, the values would be 4.6 m, 2.7 μg Chl/l, 45 μg CB/l and 25.4 μg TP/l. These values represent the “natural” reference levels and it is not realistic to expect that remedial measures would improve the conditions more than that. Using the CoastWeb-model, similar calculations can be made for any given coastal area and the data necessary for such calculations are discussed in this work.