A Multi-scale Spatial Analysis of Native and Exotic Plant Species Richness Within a Mixed-Disturbance Oak Savanna Landscape

Impacts of human land use pose an increasing threat to global biodiversity. Resource managers must respond rapidly to this threat by assessing existing natural areas and prioritizing conservation actions across multiple spatial scales. Plant species richness is a useful measure of biodiversity but typically can only be evaluated on small portions of a given landscape. Modeling relationships between spatial heterogeneity and species richness may allow conservation planners to make predictions of species richness patterns within unsampled areas. We utilized a combination of field data, remotely sensed data, and landscape pattern metrics to develop models of native and exotic plant species richness at two spatial extents (60- and 120-m windows) and at four ecological levels for northwestern Ohio’s Oak Openings region. Multiple regression models explained 37–77 % of the variation in plant species richness. These models consistently explained more variation in exotic richness than in native richness. Exotic richness was better explained at the 120-m extent while native richness was better explained at the 60-m extent. Land cover composition of the surrounding landscape was an important component of all models. We found that percentage of human-modified land cover (negatively correlated with native richness and positively correlated with exotic richness) was a particularly useful predictor of plant species richness and that human-caused disturbances exert a strong influence on species richness patterns within a mixed-disturbance oak savanna landscape. Our results emphasize the importance of using a multi-scale approach to examine the complex relationships between spatial heterogeneity and plant species richness.     

Predicting the distribution of ground beetle species (Coleoptera, Carabidae) in Britain using land cover variables

Predictions of plant and animal species distributions are important for conservation and for the assessment of large-scale ecosystem change. Land cover data are becoming more widely available for use in land management and conservation. We use a logistic regression modelling approach to investigate the utility of these data for modelling. The relationship between the distribution of 137 British ground beetles species and land cover was investigated using data from 1,687 10 km national grid squares. Land cover data were simplified using ordination and the axes used as predictors in logistic regression with presence absence data for individual beetle species as response variables. Significant regression models were generated for all species with first and second axis scores. The amounts of variation explained by models were generally low, but predictions derived from models generally matched the known distributions of the species in Britain. Species with coastal preferences were poorly modelled and predicted to occur throughout lowland Britain whilst a number of species occurring in southern Britain were predicted to occur into Scotland. A validation exercise comparing model predictions with new data from a survey of 59 10 km(2) produced mixed results with the distribution of grassland species being better predicted than riverine species. Jack-knifing was used to assess the robustness of models for four species which differed in their apparent responses to the land cover variables. Methods for improving the predictive power of these models and their potential for use in assessing the impact of global climate change are discussed.     

Testing the Use of a Land Cover Map for Habitat Ranking in Boreal Forests

Habitat loss and modification is one of the major threats to biodiversity and the preservation of conservation values. We use the term conservation value to mean the benefit of nature or habitats for species. The importance of identifying and preserving conservation values has increased with the decline in biodiversity and the adoption of more stringent environmental legislation. In this study, conservation values were considered in the context of land-use planning and the rapidly increasing demand for more accurate methods of predicting and identifying these values. We used a k-nearest neighbor interpreted satellite (Landsat TM) image classified in 61 classes to assess sites with potential conservation values at the regional and landscape planning scale. Classification was made at the National Land Survey of Finland for main tree species, timber volume, land-use type, and soil on the basis of spectral reflectance in satellite image together with broad numerical reference data. We used the number and rarity of vascular plant species observed in the field as indicators for potential conservation values. We assumed that significant differences in the species richness, rarity, or composition of flora among the classes interpreted in the satellite image would also mean a difference in conservation values among these classes. We found significant differences in species richness among the original satellite image classes. Many of the classes examined could be distinguished by the number of plant species. Species composition also differed correspondingly. Rare species were most abundant in old spruce forests (>200 m³/ha), raising the position of such forests in the ranking of categories according to conservation values. The original satellite image classification was correct for 70% of the sites studied. We concluded that interpreted satellite data can serve as a useful source for evaluating habitat categories on the basis of plant species richness and rarity. Recategorization of original satellite image classification into such new conservation value categories is challenging because of the variation in species composition among the new categories. However, it does not represent a major problem for the purposes of early-stage land-use planning. Benefits of interpreted satellite image recategorization as a rapid conservation value assessment tool for land-use planners would be great.     

Assessing the Performance of the NELUP Hydrological Models for River Basin Planning

The hydrological modelling capability within the NERC/ESRC Land Use Programme is built around two simulation codes, SHETRAN and ARNO. Together these provide a comprehensive tool for analysing the potential impacts of land use change on the hydrology of a catchment. Both models have been validated for five-year flow simulations on the prototype Tyne catchment. Results from the SHETRAN nitrate simulations are also presented with the limited available validation data. Finally, the value of the hydrology models is discussed in the context of river basin planning.     

Assessing state-wide biodiversity in the Florida Gap analysis project

The Florida Gap (Fl-Gap) project provides an assessment of the degree to which native animal species and natural communities are or are not represented in existing conservation lands. Those species and communities not adequately represented in areas being managed for native species constitute 'gaps' in the existing network of conservation lands. The United States Geological Survey Gap Analysis Program is a national effort and so, eventually, all 50 states will have completed it. The objective of Fl-Gap was to provide broad geographic information on the status of terrestrial vertebrates, butterflies, skippers and ants and their respective habitats to address the loss of biological diversity. To model the distributions and potential habitat of all terrestrial species of mammals, breeding birds, reptiles, amphibians, butterflies, skippers and ants in Florida, natural land cover was mapped to the level of dominant or co-dominant plant species. Land cover was classified from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery and auxiliary data such as the national wetlands inventory (NWI), soils maps, aerial imagery, existing land use/land cover maps, and on-the-ground surveys. Wildlife distribution models were produced by identifying suitable habitat for each species within that species' range. Mammalian models also assessed a minimum critical area required for sustainability of the species' population. Wildlife species richness was summarized against land stewardship ranked by an area's mandates for conservation protection.     

Reduced complexity models for regional aquatic habitat suitability assessment

Generalizable methods that identify suitable aquatic habitat across large river basins and regions are needed to inform resource management. Habitat suitability models intersect environmental variables to predict species occurrence, but are often data intensive and thus are typically developed at small spatial scales. This study estimated mean monthly aquatic habitat suitability throughout Utah (USA) for Bonneville Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii utah) and Bluehead Sucker (Catostomus discobolus) with publicly available, geospatial datasets. We evaluated 15 habitat suitability models using unique combinations of percent of mean annual discharge, velocity, gradient, and stream temperature. Environmental variables were validated with observed conditions and species presence observations to verify habitat suitability estimates. Stream temperature, gradient, and discharge best predicted Bonneville Cutthroat Trout presence, and gradient and discharge best predicted Bluehead Sucker presence. Simple aquatic habitat suitability models outperformed models that used only streamflow to estimate habitat for both species, and are useful for conservation planning and water resources decision-making. This modeling approach could enable resource managers to prioritize stream restoration across vast regions within their management domain, and is potentially compatible with water management modeling to improve ecological objectives in management models.     

Modeling Animal Habitats Based on Cover Types: A Critical Review

The simplest type of model describing animal habitats is a “cover-type model,” in which a species is assumed to be present in certain vegetation types and absent in others. Ecologists and managers use these models to predict animal distributions for gap analysis and conservation planning. Critics, however, have suggested that the models are overly simplistic and inaccurate. We reviewed the use of cover-type models including assessing their error rates, diagnosing the problems with these models, and determining how they should best be used by managers. To determine models’ accuracy rates, we conducted a meta-analysis of 35 studies in which cover-type models were tested against data on animal occurrences. Models had a mean accuracy rate of 0.71 ± 0.18 (SD). Rates of commission error averaged 0.20 ± 0.16, and omission errors averaged 0.09 ± 0.11. A review of the effects of errors in conservation planning suggests that the observed error rates were high enough to call into question any management decisions based on these models. Reasons for the high error rates of cover-type models include the fallibility of expert opinion, the fact that the models oversimplify how animals actually use habitats, and the dynamic nature of animal populations. Given the high rate of errors in cover-type models, any conclusions based on them should be taken with extreme caution. We suggest that these models are best used as coarse filters to identify locations for further study in the field.     

Conservation and Management for Multiple Species: Integrating Field Research and Modeling into Management Decisions

Multiple-species reserves aim at supporting viable populations of selected species. Population viability analysis (PVA) is a group of methods for predicting such measures as extinction risk based on species-specific data. These methods include models that simulate the dynamics of a population or a metapopulation. A PVA model for the California gnatcatcher in Orange County was developed with landscape (GIS) data on the habitat characteristics and requirements and demographic data on population dynamics of the species. The potential applications of this model include sensitivity analysis that provides guidance for planning fieldwork, designing reserves, evaluating management options, and assessing human impact. The method can be extended to multiple species by combining habitat suitability maps for selected species with weights based on the threat faced by each species, and the contribution of habitat patches to the persistence of each species. These applications and extensions, together with the ability of the model to combine habitat and demographic data, make PVA a powerful tool for the design, conservation, and management of multiple species reserves.     

Landscape ecological assessment: a tool for integrating biodiversity issues in strategic environmental assessment and planning

To achieve a sustainable development, impacts on biodiversity of urbanisation, new infrastructure projects and other land use changes must be considered on landscape and regional scales. This requires that important decisions are made after a systematic evaluation of environmental impacts. Landscape ecology can provide a conceptual framework for the assessment of consequences of long-term development processes like urbanisation on biodiversity components, and for evaluating and visualising the impacts of alternative planning scenarios. The aim of this paper was to develop methods for integrating biodiversity issues in planning and strategic environmental assessment in an urbanising environment, on landscape and regional levels. In order to test developed methods, a case study was conducted in the region of Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, and the study area embraced the city centre, suburbs and peri-urban areas. Focal species were tested as indicators of habitat quality, quantity and connectivity in the landscape. Predictive modelling of habitat distribution in geographic information systems involved the modelling of focal species occurrences based on empirical data, incorporated in a landscape ecological decision support system. When habitat models were retrieved, they were applied on future planning scenarios in order to predict and assess the impacts on focal species. The scenario involving a diffuse exploitation pattern had the greatest negative impacts on the habitat networks of focal species. The scenarios with concentrated exploitation also had negative impacts, although they were possible to mitigate quite easily. The predictions of the impacts on habitats networks of focal species made it possible to quantify, integrate and visualise the effects of urbanisation scenarios on aspects of biodiversity on a landscape level.     

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.     

江西野生药用植物资源

笔者通过多年调查研究,初步统计了江西药用维管植物约有2400种,隶属166科665属,并分析了各属的区系成分。根据药用植物的用途和药用价值,将它们分成5类,即中草药植物、兽用药用植物、土农药植物、观赏药用植物和珍稀濒危药用植物。分别叙述了各类药用植物的主要种类,为江西药用植物资源合理利用与保护提供了有关科学依据。     

Computer software tool REALM for sustainable water allocation and management

REALM (REsource ALlocation Model) is a generalised computer simulation package that models harvesting and bulk distribution of water resources within a water supply system. It is a modeling tool, which can be applied to develop specific water allocation models. Like other water resource simulation software tools, REALM uses mass-balance accounting at nodes, while the movement of water within carriers is subject to capacity constraints. It uses a fast network linear programming algorithm to optimise the water allocation within the network during each simulation time step, in accordance with user-defined operating rules. This paper describes the main features of REALM and provides potential users with an appreciation of its capabilities. In particular, it describes two case studies covering major urban and rural water supply systems. These case studies illustrate REALM's capabilities in the use of stochastically generated data in water supply planning and management, modelling of environmental flows, and assessing security of supply issues.     

Population viability analysis as a tool in wildlife conservation policy: With reference to Australia

Wildlife conservation policy for endangered species restoration follows a six-phase process. Population viability analysis (PVA) can play a major contributing role in four of these. PVA, as discussed here, is a technique where extinction vulnerabilities of small populations are estimated using computer simulation modeling. The benefits and limitations of using PVA in wildlife decision and policy processes are reviewed based on our direct experience. PVA permits decision makers to set time frames for management, estimate the required magnitude of restoration efforts, identify quantitative targets for species recovery, and select, implement, monitor, and evaluate management strategies. PVA is of greatest value for rare species policy and management. However, a limitation of PVA simulation models is that they are constrained by the amount of biological data available, and such data are difficult to obtain from small populations that are at immediate risk of extinction. These problems may be overcome with improved models and more data. Our experience shows benefits of PVA far outweigh its limitations, and applications of the approach are most useful when integrated with decision analysis and completed within an adaptive management philosophy. PVAs have been carried out for 14 Victorian species and less used elsewhere in Australia. Management and recovery plans are developed from these PVAs. We recommend that PVA be used to guide research programs, develop conservation strategies, and inform decision and policy making for both endangered and nonendangered species because it can significantly improve many aspects of natural resource policy and management.     

多元回归和BP人工神经网络模型对混合厌氧消化产气量的预测研究

在中温且控制pH值条件下,对脂肪类单基质和城市污水厂剩余污泥进行混合厌氧消化试验。基于多元回归原理和BP人工神经网络原理,对其建立产气量预测模型。由实验数据计算得出:两个阶段多元回归模型的预测平均准确率分别为75.69%和79.29%;BP神经网络模型的预测平均准确率为79.05%。通过对比两种模型的预测结果可知,两种模型都有较高的预测准确率,但BP模型的预测准确率更高,更适用于混合厌氧消化产气量预测。     

Mapping wetlands in the Lower Mekong Basin for wetland resource and conservation management using Landsat ETM images and field survey data

The Mekong River Basin is considered to be the second most species rich river basin in the world. The 795,000 km(2) catchment encompasses several ecoregions, incorporating biodiverse and productive wetland systems. Eighty percent of the rapidly expanding population of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), made up in part by Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam, live in rural areas and are heavily reliant on wetland resources. As the populations of Cambodia and Lao PDR will double in the next 20 years, pressure on natural resources and particularly wetlands can only increase. For development planning, resource and conservation management to incorporate wetland issues, information on the distribution and character of Mekong wetlands is essential. The existing but outdated wetland maps were compiled from secondary landuse-landcover data, have limited coverage, poor thematic accuracy and no meta-data. Therefore the Mekong River Commission (MRC) undertook to produce new wetland coverage for the LMB. As resources, funding and regional capacity are limited, it was determined that the method applied should use existing facilities, be easily adaptable, and replicable locally. For the product to be useful it must be accepted by local governments and decision makers. The results must be of acceptable accuracy (>75%) and the methodology should be relatively understandable to non-experts. In the first stage of this exercise, field survey was conducted at five pilot sites covering a range of typical wetland habitats (MRC wetland classification) to supply data for a supervised classification of Landsat ETM images from the existing MRC archive. Images were analysed using ERDAS IMAGINE and applying Maximum Likelihood Classification. Field data were reserved to apply formal accuracy assessment to the final wetland habitat maps, with resulting accuracy ranging from 77 to 94%. The maps produced are now in use at a Provincial and National level in three countries for resource and conservation planning and management applications, including designation of a Ramsar wetland site of international importance.     

Ecological Restoration of Coastal Sage Scrub and Its Potential Role in Habitat Conservation Plans

Extensive acreage loss of coastal sage scrub (CSS), isolation of surviving stands, and the federal listing of several animal species with obligate relationships to this plant community, particularly the threatened California gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica), have led to attempts to create CSS to mitigate habitat lost to urban development and other causes. Many of these creations lie within habitat conservation plan (HCP) sites, and they could play a more prominent role by being repositories for plants taken from a single site having site-specific genetics. Among others, one technique that increases initial resemblance to natural stands uses digitized, to-scale photography, which has been ground-truthed to verify vascular plant associations, which appear as mosaics on a landscape. A combination of placing patches of salvaged, mature canopy plants within larger matrices of imprinted or container plant plots appears to significantly enhance immediate use by CSS obligate bird species, accelerate "spread" or expansion of CSS, and can also introduce many epiphytic taxa that otherwise would be slow or unable to occupy developing CSS creations. Reptile, amphibian, butterfly, and rodent diversity in a salvaged canopy restoration case study at the University of California, Irvine, showed CSS species foraging and inhabiting transplanted canopy patches. Using restoration techniques to expand existing CSS stands has more promise than creating isolated patches, and the creation of canopies resembling CSS mid-fire cycle stands is now common. Gnatcatchers and other birds use restorations for foraging and occasional nesting, and in some cases created stands along "biological corridors" appear to be useful to bird movement. Patches of transplanted sage scrub shrubs along habitat edges appear to break up linear edge effects. There are no data on which long-term survival, succession, or postfire behavior can be predicted for CSS restoration sites, and postfire community changes are not part of either mitigation or restoration planning at present. Long-term planning including burning is needed so that a fire-adapted habitat will develop. Restoration is important in retaining genetic resources, for ameliorating edge effects, as habitat extenders in buffer zones around HCP sites, and by providing areas into which natural stands can expand.     

Conservation strategies for effective land management of protected areas using an erosion prediction information system (EPIS)

This research demonstrates the predictive modeling capabilities of a geographic information system (GIS)-based soil erosion potential model to assess the effects of implementing land use change within a tropical watershed. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was integrated with a GIS to produce an Erosion Prediction Information System (EPIS) and modified to reflect conditions found in the mountainous tropics. Research was conducted in the Zenzontia subcatchment of the Río Ayuquíla, located within the Sierra de Manantlán Biosphere Reserve (SMBR), México. Expanding agricultural activities within this area will accentuate the already high rate of soil erosion and resultant sediment loading occurring in the Río Ayuquíla. Two land-use change scenarios are modeled with the EPIS: (1) implementation of soil conservation practices in erosion prone locations; and (2) selection of sites for agricultural expansion which minimize potential soil loss. Confronted with limited financial resources and the necessity for expedient action, managers of the SMBR can draw upon the predictive capacity of the EPIS to facilitate rapid and informed land-use planning decisions.     

Planning and design of Berg-en-Dal,a new camp in Kruger National Park

The premise of this article is that the planning and design of new rest camps in conservation areas should be based on ecological principles in such a way that the plant ecology within the camp be an integral part and extension of the natural ecology of its immediate vicinity. This is desirable so that visitors to the camp will be provided not only with facilities for resting, eating, and sleeping, but also be able to enjoy and study the natural environment in a relaxed atmosphere. The Berg-en-Dal rest camp, which was established in Kruger National Park, was planned in such a way and designed according to the principles outlined by the authors in a companion article. The planning included six zones: a control zone, day visitor zone, overnight visitor zone, staff accommodation zone, recreation zone, and service zone. The point is stressed that plant species selected to be used as additional vegetation to those already growing in the camp were endemic to the nine landscape facets identified in the camp. The design allowed for separation of the various land-use zones in such a way that they would complement each other rather than be a hindrance to each other. The camp has been built according to the plans included in this article and has proved to be a great success. The conclusion is drawn that the planning principles are sound and should be used in the future for the planning and design of rest camps for conservation areas in South Africa.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.     

Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.