Volcanic disasters in Latin America and the 13th November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia

Volcanic eruptions in Latin America have claimed about 61,000 lives since 1600 A.D. and the region's volcanoes are responsible for about a quarter of the world's fatalities from this type of hazard. Nearly all loss of life from volcanism in Latin America is due to pyroclastic surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars or volcanic mudflows. Lahars generated during the 13th November, 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia claimed 25,000 lives, underscoring the great hazard from lahars, which can be generated from the fifty-six, active, ice-capped Central and South American volcanoes during even very small eruptions. The probability of specific prediction of the timing of such events is currently low, whereas the probability of a general prediction of volcanic eruption is high, giving sufficient time to install telemetered lahar alarm systems, which could largely avoid the loss of life.     

五大连池老黑山火山的两次喷发活动

老黑山是五大连池火山群中最年轻的火山.通过对老黑山火山锥体结构及其形态分析指出,老黑山火山并非单锥,而是由先、后不同时期形成的两个锥体叠加组成的复合锥,表明它有两次喷发活动.通过对新发掘出的史料的分析,进一步指出,老黑山火山的第一次喷发时间为1720(不是1719年)-1721年,第二次可能为1776年.两次喷发活动的确认为研究老黑山火山喷发历史、喷发过程、喷发危险性评价和灾害预测等提供了新依据.     

Volcanic Disaster Mitigation in the Philippines: Experience from Mt. Pinatubo

Considerable progress has been made in volcanic disaster mitigation in the Philippines during the last four decades, since the devastating Hibok-Hibok eruption in 1951 and the establishment of the Commission on Volcanology (COMVOL), the forerunner of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) in 1952. The management of the Pinatubo Volcano eruption crisis of 1991-92 marks the highest point in the development of volcanic disaster mitigation in the country. State-of-the-art volcano monitoring techniques and instruments were applied; the eruption was accurately predicted; hazards zonation maps were prepared and disseminated a month before the violent explosions; an alert and warning system was designed and implemented; and the disaster response machinery was mobilized on time. The unprecedented magnitude and lingering nature of the hazards, however, and their widespread, long-term impacts have sorely tested the capability of the country's volcanic disaster mitigation systems. In particular, the lahar threat has triggered controversies and put decision makers in a dilemma of choosing between adaptive versus confrontational/control approaches. At least three strategies have been articulated and adopted in varying degrees and forms: (1) the establishment of a lahar monitoring-warning-evacuation system to deal with the lahar problem on an emergency basis; (2) relocation of settlements from the hazard zones; and (3) installation of engineering countermeasures to control/divert the lahar flows and protect settlements. A combination of the three appears to be the best, but the most effective and least costly mix remains to be determined.     

长白山天池火山的研究现状与展望

较详细地介绍了近年来长白山天池火山喷发历史、火山形成机制、火山系统的探测和火山灾害的研究现状，指出了当前研究中存在的一些主要问题。建议今后应加强火山活动历史研究；探测岩浆作用及其动态变化，限定火山失稳条件；研究岩浆作用和火山触发机制；开展火山作用的试验模拟和火山灾害区划的定量模拟研究；建立火山灾害预警系统，制定火山灾害应急预案，以达到减轻火山灾害的目的。     

火山灾害及其监测预防

本文阐明火山灾害是一种重大自然灾害,给人民生命财产造成严重损失。文中指出当前火山活动进入新的活跃期,提出我国火山灾害的潜在危险。我国许多休眠火山区,正在成为新的经济开发区和旅游疗养、开发地热和建材资源的新兴城镇,人口迅速增加,经济蓬勃发展。但还没有采取有效的火山监测研究和防灾措施。作者建议,应把火山监测研究纳入政府防灾日程,制定规划,拨出专款,把防御火山灾害同国土开发,经济建设结合起来。     

The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism

Abstract

This study quantifies the spatial relationship between the global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Using recently compiled databases of population and Holocene volcanoes, we estimate that almost 9% (455 × 10⁶ people) of the world's 1990 population lived within 100km of an historically active volcano and 12% within 100km of a volcano believed to have been active during the last 10,000 years. The analysis also indicates that average population density generally decreases with distance from these volcanoes (within 200 km). In tropical areas, the elevation and fertile soils associated with volcanic regions can provide incentives for agrarian populations to settle close to potentially active volcanoes. In Southeast Asia and Central America higher population densities lie in closer proximity to volcanoes than in other volcanic regions. In Japan and Chile, population density tends to increase with distance from volcanoes. The current trends of rapid urbanization and sustained population growth in tropical developing countries, combined with agricultural intensification of fertile volcanic terrains could alter the relationship between humans and volcanoes so as to increase both local and global consequences of volcanic eruptions in the future.     

A review of coastal community vulnerabilities toward resilience benefits from disaster reduction measures

The coast has always been an area of significant hazards. In situations of community self-sufficiency, consequences of coastal hazards might be isolated to regions directly affected by the hazard. But, in the current global economy, fewer and fewer communities are isolated; damage to one location frequently has consequences around the globe and coastal community resilience can have broad-reaching benefits. Hazard responses for the built coastal environment have typically been resistance: constructing stronger buildings, enhancing natural barriers or creating artificial barriers. These approaches to hazard reduction through coastal engineering and shoreline defence efforts have been crucial to sustained coastal development. However, as coastal forces continue or magnify and resources become scarcer, resistance alone may be less effective or even unsustainable, and interest in resilience has grown. Resilience is a community's ability either to absorb destructive forces without loss of service or function, or to recover quickly from disasters. Community resilience encompasses multiple elements, ranging from governance to structural design, risk knowledge, prevention, warning systems and recovery. This paper focuses on hazards of coastal communities, and provides a review of some recent engineering efforts to improve the resilience elements of risk knowledge and disaster warnings for coastal disaster reduction.     

Mitigation of the heat island effect in urban New Jersey

Implementation of urban heat island (UHI) mitigation strategies such as increased vegetative cover and higher-albedo surface materials can reduce the impacts of biophysical hazards in cities, including heat stress related to elevated temperatures, air pollution and associated public health effects. Such strategies also can lower the demand for air-conditioning-related energy production. Since local impacts of global climate change may be intensified in areas with UHIs, mitigation strategies could play an increasingly important role as individuals and communities adapt to climate change. We use CITYgreen, a GIS-based modeling application, to estimate the potential benefits of urban vegetation and reflective roofs as UHI mitigation strategies for case study sites in and around Newark and Camden, New Jersey.

The analysis showed that urban vegetation can reduce health hazards associated with the UHI effect by removing pollutants from the air. Less affluent, inner-city neighborhoods are the ones in which the hazard potential of the UHI effect is shown to be greatest. However, these neighborhoods have less available open space for tree planting and therefore a lower maximum potential benefit. As the climate warms, these neighborhoods may face greater consequences due to interactions between the UHI effect and global climate change. Results also show that urban vegetation is an effective and economically efficient way to reduce energy consumption and costs at the sites.     

滨海城市环境工程地质问题成灾特点分析

滨海城市是我国经济最发达的地区，近年来经济与城市建设均得到迅速发展，城市土地开发力度加大，由此起起的环境工程地质问题也日趋严重。本文分析了我国滨海城市环境工程地质问题的主要类型，研究了环境工程地质问题的成灾特点。     

利用多源数据融合研究长白山天池火山的喷发期次及空间分布

利用ERS－2 SAR,Landsat TM和全色航空照片等图像,结合测年、野外地质考察等资料,在GIS平台上利用多源数据融合、小波变换、神经元网络分类等手段,研究了长白山天池火山的喷发期次及分布,为火山灾害制图及危险性评价提供了重要依据。     

全球不同区域火山爆发与中国夏季旱涝的关系

根据近500年来火山活动和中国旱涝资料,研究了中国旱涝型和各主要地区旱涝指数与不同火山区和不同季节火山爆发的统计关系,探讨了1991年江淮洪涝与该年6月火山爆发的可能联系。发现不同区域火山爆发对中国不同地区的旱涝影响不同,有的甚至截然相反。由统计检验表明,分区研究比不分区研究其信度明显提高。     

城市避震疏散场所公园绿地面积指标的研究

前人研究城市绿化和避震疏散场所的都很多,但都是把两者分开来研究。本文把两者结合起来,在研究避震疏散场所的基础上,以尹之潜、李荷提出的震害预测方法和谢礼立归纳的房屋遭遇地震时的破坏情况为基础,以人的需求为本,结合定性和定量2种方法,分别对城市建成区、发展建设区和规划新城区避震疏散公园绿地指标进行研究。按本文提出的避震疏散公园绿地指标规划城市避震疏散场所,既能满足城市避震疏散的目的,又能提高城市绿化率。     

Aid in a city at war: the case of Mogadishu, Somalia

Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, has been central to life, war, and peace in the country for almost two decades. Its urban characteristics, though, have been put to one side for the most part. In recent years, Mogadishu-related issues have been merged mostly into a global agenda for South and Central Somalia, resulting in the technical and coordination approaches employed in the city largely being reproductions of solutions utilised in refugee camps and rural areas. Unfortunately, urban problems require urban solutions. The aid system is just starting to discover how specific aid in cities at war should be, both from an organisational and a technical standpoint. The enhancement of aid practices in an urban setting implies, among other things, a more strategic approach to the specific spatial characteristics of the city, a more fine-tuned analysis of the technical requirements of the urban service delivery systems, and a better understanding of the role of urban institutions.     

Volcanic hazard or economic destitution: hard choices in Banños,Ecuador

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.     

The 1928 Eruption of Mount Etna Volcano, Sicily, and the Destruction of the Town of Mascali

In November 1928 there was an eruption of Mount Etna, Sicily, which led to lava largely destroying the town of Mascali, situated low on the eastern flank of the volcano. Destruction of the town took just over a day but there was an orderly evacuation of its inhabitants and, with help from the military, families were able to remove furniture and fittings from their houses. Evacuees were relocated to nearby towns staying with relatives, friends or in hired apartments. Rebuilding Mascali provided an opportunity for the fascist government of the time to demonstrate efficient centralised planning. A completely new town was built on a grid-iron plan with many of the buildings reflecting the 'fascist architecture' of the time. The town was complete by 1937 and housing condztzons were very advanced in comparison with other towns in the region. The 1928 eruption is important as it was the most destructive on Etna since 1669 when the city of Catania was overwhelmed. In terms of hazard and risk assessment the 1928 eruption demonstrates that lava can reach the lower flanks of the volcano within a short period after the onset of an eruption.     

关于防灾减灾预警机制及预警工程的若干讨论

SARS疫情迅速在世界传播和在中国蔓延,更加引起了政府和社会各界对城市突发性灾难有效应对和有效防治方面的高度重视。笔者认为,开展早期预警是对突发危机事件有效处理的关键,必须要有完善的预警机制和现代预警系统工程方可进行。提出将以人为本原则、预防为主原则、法律责任原则、组织管理原则和第一时间原则等作为确保防灾减灾预警系统有序建设和高效运行的基本原则。对现代预警工程的特点、现代预警工程的强化途径提供了以“以人为本”为前提的见解。     

我国海岸带灾害成因分析及减灾对策

近年来海岸带灾害越来越成为制约海岸带－我国最重要的经济带社会、经济和环境可持续发展的重要因素。本文在全球变化和人类活动影响的背景下,分析探讨了我国海岸带灾害的基本成因,并提出了相应的概念性减灾对策框架,海岸带生态环境的脆弱性,全球变化（相对海平面变化、气候异常）和人类活动是导致我国海岸带灾害的3个主要方面。据此,认为减灾的关键在于合理规范人类行为,保护和改善本已十分脆弱的海岸带生态环境,使人与自然界和谐相处;对于全球变化诱发的灾害,则力求基于科学认识与预测,在海岸带开发中合理规划建设,做到未雨绸缪,实现海岸带社会经济可持续发展。     

中外大城市震灾管理模式的对比分析

对随机选取的8个发生在大城市的地震，分为发达国家和发展中国家两组，分别对其造成的死亡人数和经济损失以及震前准备、震后救援、致灾因素等管理措施进行了统计对比，并归纳出应该吸取的经验教训。     

Assessing global exposure to natural hazards: Progress and future trends

Global maps of natural hazard occurrence and risk are useful tools for policy makers and international development organizations. The ranking of countries or regions by relative exposure provides a metric for prioritizing strategies for natural hazard mitigation and risk management, and for planning for response and recovery. However, the calculations underlying global natural hazard risk mapping depend on the availability and quality of geophysical and socio-economic data, which are highly variable from region to region, and may impede the application of global rankings to regional decision making. This paper summarizes a recent synthesis of natural hazard occurrence, exposure and loss data—the World Bank's “Hotspots” project—and describes the advantages and difficulties in such an approach. Several suggestions for more highly resolved, regional and sub-national analyses are made.     

Application of catastrophe loss modelling to promote property insurance in developing countries

Many mega cities in developing countries are exposed to the sources of natural catastrophes, particularly seismic activity. A high level of seismic hazard in some of these places, coupled with a relatively high degree of vulnerability within the built environment, can result in dire human and economic consequences. This paper contains examples of such potentially disruptive factors in relation to Tehran, Iran. It presents preliminary seismic loss estimates for residential buildings in a pilot area of northern Tehran. The paper briefly investigates the effectiveness of risk management measures and loss compensation mechanisms before assessing the feasibility of an insurance‐based risk transfer instrument for managing potential seismic losses among residential buildings in Tehran. It goes on to suggest how probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling can help local insurers to manage their portfolios and facilitate risk sharing among insurance companies and households. Finally, the paper addresses the question of how catastrophe loss modelling can help to strengthen the penetration of property insurance in developing countries.