空气污染、空间外溢与公共健康——以中国珠江三角洲9个城市为例

空气污染对居民公共健康的影响,引起了人们高度的关注。但大多数学者研究从样本的独立性出发且不考虑内生性问题,忽视区域之间空间相关性,所得结论和政策建议需谨慎对待。为了弥补上述不足,本文基于Grossman中国宏观健康生产函数,选取2001—2014年中国广东省珠江三角洲9个城市作为样本,选择以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)作为空气污染的代理指标,在充分考虑空间效应和严格假设检验的基础上选择合适的空间计量经济学模型,对此进行实证研究。主要研究结果显示:空气污染对居民的公共健康带来了负面影响,即PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每增加1%,导致哮喘疾病和内科门诊等疾病人数不断上升,且影响都比较大,尤其是对哮喘疾病的影响分别为0.2236%和0.2272%。经济增长对公共健康均有显著的促进作用,影响最大;其它财政医疗支出、卫生技术人员和人口密度等要素对居民公共健康的影响较小。由于空气污染的负外部性,研究还发现,区域之间空气污染的"溢出效应"对领域居民公共健康存在显著的影响,说明忽视空间自相关性的存在,会使得空气污染对公众健康的估计产生偏差。从长期看,空气污染对本地居民公共健康的直接效应都显著为正,PM_(2.5)间接效应显著为负,但PM_(10)间接效应并不显著。因此,各级政府除了在源头上治理污染物的排放,提高公共健康水平外,还应该打破各自为阵的行政垄断,应该作为一个整体,实现跨区域环保合作,共同治理和制定公共卫生政策等。这对区域之间协同减排和保护居民公共健康具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

中美大气污染的空间交互影响--来自国家和城市层面PM2.5的经验证据

准确识别中美大气污染的空间交互影响可以为两国在大气污染治理领域开展双边合作提供科学依据。以PM 2.5浓度表征大气污染程度,采用收敛交叉映射(Convergent Cross Mapping,CCM)方法,在采集伯克利地球发布的小时数据的基础上通过算数平均得到2018年1月1日至2018年12月31日的PM 2.5浓度日均数据,从国家和城市两个层面识别了中美大气污染的空间交互影响。研究发现,中美两国的大气污染是空间交互影响的。其中,国家层面,在CCM因果检验基础上的广义同步检验表明,在1%显著性水平上,大气污染仅存在由美国指向中国的单向因果关系。城市层面,中美两国10个样本城市之间理论上共存在50个可能的因果关系(5×5×2)。研究发现,在1%显著性水平上,美国城市指向中国城市的因果关系有12个,而中国城市指向美国城市的因果关系仅有5个。在影响强度上,美国城市的大气污染对中国城市的影响强度高于中国城市的大气污染对美国城市的影响强度,如重庆的大气污染对华盛顿的影响强度为0.21,而华盛顿的大气污染对重庆的影响强度为0.35。面对大气污染的空间交互影响,中美两国可通过积极开展联合科研攻关,厘清大气污染的传输路径及其驱动因素,进行污染物的联合监测与数据管理;通过共享大气污染治理技术和建立大气污染防治基金等方式,加强在大气污染治理领域的合作。一旦中美两国成功建立起大气污染双边合作治理体系,依靠两国的国际地位和国际影响力,必将吸引越来越多的国家参与进来共同行动,大气污染全球治理体系的构建将非常值得期待。     

The relationship between population and the environment and its impact on sustainable development in Egypt using a multi-equation model

The relationship between population and the environment is a significant issue due to its impact on chances for achieving sustainable development, especially in developing countries. Previous studies on this relationship have primarily focused on the impact of population growth on the environment, while the impact of the environment on population has received less attention, where most of these studies have used single-equation models (SEM) in their analysis. In order to capture the interrelationship between population growth and the environment, and both its direct and indirect effects on the potential for achieving sustainable development, SEM may not be appropriate. This paper takes a step forward in providing such empirical evidence, by developing a multi-equation model based on the recursive equation system in order to empirically examine the relationship between population growth and the environment in terms of air pollution represented by increased CO₂ emissions, health level represented by the mortality and morbidity due to air pollution, and labour productivity represented by GDP per hour worked, and using a time series data set for Egypt during the period of 1950–2010. Quantitatively, the current study finds that (1) In Egypt, a 1% increase in population raises the CO₂ emissions by 2.4%. (2) An increase in CO₂ emissions by 1% is associated with an increase in deaths due to outdoor air pollution (respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) by 2.5%. (3) Poor health due to air pollution leads to a decrease in labour productivity by 1.58%. (4) The impact of population growth on chances for sustainable development depends on how much the rise in air pollution decreases labour productivity through raising the rate of morbidity. (5) Even when rapid population growth rate plays a minor role in creating a specific problem, such as its indirect negative impact on labour productivity and thus economic growth, population management policies may still constitute a viable measure for dealing with that problem, especially with respect to policy intervention cost. The study argues that population growth in Egypt negatively affects the state’s ability to achieve sustainable development via its negative impact on the environment. Environmental degradation in turn leads to adverse effects on population, particularly with regard to public health. These negative effects on health lead to lower labour productivity, and thus hinder the state’s ability to sustain development.     

美国跨界大气环境监管经验对中国的借鉴

大气污染因其污染因子易受气候变化等影响,可进行长距离跨界传输,是典型的跨行政边界问题。我国地域辽阔,行政区域众多且与多个国家接壤或比邻,跨界污染问题研究十分必要。近年来,我国区域性大气污染问题明显,管理手段落后,缺乏相应管理体制和机制。美国在跨界大气环境管理方面取得了显著的成果,积累了丰富的经验,这对我国大气环境管理,尤其是跨界大气环境管理工作具有重要的借鉴意义。本文首先以美国大气跨界污染治理为例,结合具体实例,主要从机构设置、职能职责、运作方式三个方面详细分析了州内、州与州与之间以及跨国界三个层次跨界大气环境监管体系;其次,从上述几方面对我国与美国跨区域大气环境监管机制进行逐项比较分析;再次,对我国跨区域大气环境监管体系障碍分析认为,统分结合的环境管理体制和尚未建立区域联防联控机制是借鉴发达国家跨界大气环境监管经验的主要障碍;在此基础上,针对我国的跨区域大气环境管理工作提出5个方面的建议,即成立跨区域的权力机构;加强政府区域间协调合作;强化依法治理;多种管理手段综合应用;加强信息公开和公众参与。     

The map of conflicts related to environmental injustice and health in Brazil

This article discusses the experience of the map of conflicts related to environmental injustices and health in Brazil and its potential contribution to international movements for environmental justice. Inventories and maps of environmental injustices are important instruments of struggle against injustice and racism, since they increase the visibility of populations, whose lives are threatened. The Brazilian map is published online since 2010 and was an initiative of FIOCRUZ, a public health and academic institution, and the NGO FASE, in cooperation with the Brazilian Network of Environmental Injustice (RBJA), created in 2001. Environmental justice arised in Brazil as a field of reflection and mobilization, and as a rallying point to identify the struggle of several groups and entities, such as rural and urban grassroots movements, indigenous peoples, traditional populations, and peasants affected by different hazards and risks, as well as environmentalists, trade unions, and scientists. Currently, the map has 570 emblematic environmental conflicts in all regions of Brazil. Many economic activities are causing the conflicts such as mining expansion, oil and gas extractions, infrastructure (roads, mega-dams), agribusiness, and pesticide pollution, often with the support of governmental institutions.     

Inequalities in cumulative environmental burdens among three urbanized counties in California

Low-income communities and communities of color often suffer from multiple environmental hazards that pose risks to their health. Here we extended a cumulative environmental hazard inequality index (CEHII) – developed to assess inequalities in air pollution hazards – to compare the inequality among three urban counties in California: Alameda, San Diego, and Los Angeles. We included a metric for heat stress to the analysis because exposure to excessively hot weather is increasingly recognized as a threat to human health and well-being. We determined if inequalities from heat stress differed between the three regions and if this added factor modified the metric for inequality from cumulative exposure to air pollution. This analysis indicated that of the three air pollutants considered, diesel particulate matter had the greatest inequality, followed by nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5). As measured by our index, the inequalities from cumulative exposure to air pollution were greater than those of single pollutants. Inequalities were significantly different among single air pollutant hazards within each region and between regions; however, inequalities from the cumulative burdens did not differ significantly between any two regions. Modeled absolute and relative heat stress inequalities were small except for relative heat stress in San Diego which had the second highest inequality. Our analysis, techniques, and results provide useful insights for policy makers to assess inequalities between regions and address factors that contribute to overall environmental inequality within each region.     

Fertility and air pollution: Some empirical findings

This paper attempts to explain regional differences in fertility rates in the standard metropolitan statistical areas of the United States through socioeconomic factors and air pollution. An important feature of this study is that it uses the most recent data pertaining to a homogeneous sample of observations within a country rather than using data for different countries. Statistical results suggest that given other factors, fertility and the level of air pollution have an inverse relationship. This quantitative effect is statistically significant but the absolute impact is rather low. Our results also suggest that an increase in the level of income, relative education of females, temperature, and the availability of physicians would in the long run reduce fertility rates in the urban areas of the United States.     

Indoor air pollution and public policy

In recent years, scientist have come to realize that contaminated air inside buildings is a major route of human exposure to certain air pollutants. While scientific interest in the problem continues to grow, efforts to measure indoor pollution concentrations, define exposure levels, and estimate health risks remain in their infancy. Within this arena, policymakers must deal with the question of how best to protect public health and safety in the face of incomplete and often contradictory information. In the past, official response to environmental pollution has traditionally taken the form of “control by regulation.” However, creation of a regulatory framework for indoor air quality poses special policy issues that suggest the need to explore alternative modes of intervention. Ambient outdoor air is a public good, in the sense that enjoyment by one individual in no way detracts from use or enjoyment by others. Indoor air, on the other hand, is not a public good, especially in private residences. Costs and benefits of maintaining adequate indoor air quality are internalized within households, suggesting the possibility of a private demand for clean indoor air. Promulgation of indoor air quality standards and other regulations must confront the fact that individuals are already making decisions about their own air quality. Regulations might or might not improve these decisions. Development of effective and reasonable policy requires an appreciation of the scope for private action and consideration of the likelihood that public intervention will foster improved private choices. Among the logical and relatively inexpensive modes of intervention are public information programs, development of simple warning devices, and product testing and labeling.     

Economic Conditions,the Policy Cycle,and Media Visibility of Environmental Organizations

The extent to which social movements have access to the news media has important implications on the capability of social movements to communicate with and garner support from the public. Factors that shape movement organizations' media visibility thus deserve scholarly attention. This article deals with news coverage of environmental movement organizations (EMOs) in Hong Kong and focuses on the impact of economic conditions, the policy cycle, and the number of EMOs in society on media visibility of EMOs. Analysis of a data-set constructed based on archival data and official statistics illustrates that all three factors influence media visibility of EMOs through media attention to environmental issues, while the number of EMOs and economic conditions also affect media visibility of EMOs directly. In-depth interview data are then used to supplement the quantitative analysis by showing how movement activists perceive and respond strategically to the structural factors. Theoretical implications of the findings are discussed.     

武汉市灰霾天气特征分析及基于支持向量机的能见度预报

利用武汉市2013年灰霾日气象数据和空气质量数据对灰霾天气特征及其影响因子进行了综合研究，获得了武汉市灰霾天气的主要影响因子，并使用支持向量机对灰霾日能见度进行了多因子综合预测。实验表明，支持向量机模型在短期预报中，±1 km、±2 km、±3 km误差范围内预报正确率分别达到733%、867%、967%，平均绝对误差在1 km内，实现了灰霾能见度高精度预报，优于多种预报模型。在第2、3天±3 km误差范围内的能见度预报准确率都达到90%，中长期预报能力较强，模型性能稳定     

Green Lawfare: Environmental Public Interest Litigation and Mediatized Environmental Conflict

Communication strategies involving news media and environmental groups are well documented and research into protest politics and other forms of environmental communication has made considerable progress in the analysis of the strategies that various actors use to influence environmental policy. There is less scholarship, however, on the journalistic representation of the legal strategies employed by environmental non-government organizations, such as the mediatized debates about the use of law by these groups and the laws themselves. Further, while legal scholarship observes the role of public interest litigation in environmental matters, the role of news media as an influential force in public opinion formation and mobilization in the context of environmental litigation as an activist strategy remains less understood. Using the 2015 “green lawfare” debate in Australia that followed a successful Australian Federal Court challenge to a coalmine, this paper argues that the “mediatized visibility” inherent in public interest litigation is an important, but mostly overlooked, element of mediatized environmental conflict.     

Species of the Month: Anti-Whaling,Mediated Visibility,and the News

Paul Watson, founder of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society and captain of anti-whaling ship the Steve Irwin, has emerged as one of the world's most visible environmental protesters. This essay, based in part on a long interview with Watson in Australia in 2009, analyzes his mediated visibility and thus capacity to participate in public debate by isolating various components of his strategic activities under four themes: mediated protest, symbolic power, media practices, and celebrity. It argues that Watson's visibility involves a complex flow of information and meanings across various “old” and “new” media form, but remains reliant on news media. Thus, despite his generally astute media practices and strategies, Watson's visibility is contingent on a set of professional practices and logics unlikely to provide sustained news access or long-term legitimacy to a political “outsider.”     

Using Nonprofit Narratives and News Media Framing to Depict Air Pollution in Delhi,India

How is the air pollution issue in Delhi framed by the news media and narrated by nonprofit organizations? To study news media framing, we employed an inductive approach based on automated text coding of news coverage of the issue. To study nonprofit organization narrations, a deductive approach guided by the Narrative Policy Framework was used to focus on the stories told via online documents as found on nonprofit websites. The findings confirm existing theory and empirical research regarding the leading causes and effects of air pollution; however, perceptions are mixed regarding the government’s ability to implement policy. The combined deductive and inductive approaches provide a systematic and multi-method research study for understanding perceptions of air pollution in one of the largest cities in the world. The result is a depiction of the priorities that influence public opinions, political decisions, and eventually public policies.     

Air pollution health effects in the Munich metropolitan area: Preliminary results based on a statistical model

Based on a feasibility study, we have recently proposed a multivariate regression model for the impact of air pollution on the mortality of a long-term exposed population. This article proceeds by providing some experimental results, since this model has been fitted to data on a cross sectional basis for 41 census tracts in the Munich metropolitan area. The results obtained so far could be supportive to more detailed epidemiological studies of air pollution which have been conducted in many industrial countries; unfortunately, only relatively few have been conducted in West Germany.     

Methods for control of indoor air quality

This report presents results of a review of available methods for control of environmental hazards applied to indoor air pollutants. Indoor air pollution originates from transport of ambient outdoor air contaminants into occupied spaces by natural infiltration ventilation, or by mechanical ventilation using outdoor makeup air, plus contributions from indoor emission sources. When air exchange with the external ambient environment is reduced to conserve energy, contributions from indoor emission sources may dominate indoor air pollutant levels. This paper identifies alternative methods available to control indoor air pollutant exposures. The performance characteristics of ventilation systems and of air cleaning devices used in mixed modes for ventilation of occupied spaces are described. Models for predicting effectiveness of several alternative modes are reviewed, with field trial validation results cited where available. Results of previous confined-space studies are briefly reviewed as points of departure for consideration of necessary air quality, ventilation, and air cleaning. Understanding of indoor air contaminant generation and controls is aided by examination of earlier studies of indoor air quality, using modern perspectives on occupational environmental health and hygiene.     

Adverse health effects of outdoor air pollutants

Much research on the health effects of outdoor air pollution has been published in the last decade. The goal of this review is to concisely summarize a wide range of the recent research on health effects of many types of outdoor air pollution. A review of the health effects of major outdoor air pollutants including particulates, carbon monoxide, sulfur and nitrogen oxides, acid gases, metals, volatile organics, solvents, pesticides, radiation and bioaerosols is presented. Numerous studies have linked atmospheric pollutants to many types of health problems of many body systems including the respiratory, cardiovascular, immunological, hematological, neurological and reproductive/ developmental systems. Some studies have found increases in respiratory and cardiovascular problems at outdoor pollutant levels well below standards set by such agencies as the US EPA and WHO. Air pollution is associated with large increases in medical expenses, morbidity and is estimated to cause about 800,000 annual premature deaths worldwide [Cohen, A.J., Ross Alexander, H., Ostro, B., Pandey, K.D., Kryzanowski, M., Kunzail, N., et al., 2005. The global burden of disease due to outdoor air pollution. J Toxicol Environ Health A. 68: 1-7.]. Further research on the health effects of air pollution and air pollutant abatement methods should be very helpful to physicians, public health officials, industrialists, politicians and the general public.     

Climatic drivers of potential hazards in Mediterranean coasts

This paper studies climatic drivers (air and water temperature, precipitation rates, river discharge, sea level and storm patterns) in four Mediterranean regions: the Catalan-Valencia Coast (Spain), the Oran (Algeria) and Gabès (Tunisia) Gulfs and the western Nile Delta (Egypt). The paper also considers the potential hazards that these drivers can induce. It first analyses climatic trends in the drivers, taking into account the available time series of recorded and simulated meteo-oceanographic data from different sources. Next, it presents the general framework to assess biogeophysical hazards (flooding, erosion, droughts and water quality), followed by a simple and yet robust evaluation of those hazards for the four studied coastal sites. Assuming climate change projections under different scenarios and considering the observed trends in drivers, the resulting erosion rates due to sea-level rise and wave storm effects have been estimated. The Nile and Ebro Deltas, together with the Oran Gulf, are more vulnerable than the Gulfs of Valencia and Gabès. Regarding water quality in terms of (a) precipitation and dissolved oxygen in the water column and (b) sea surface temperature, the results show that the most vulnerable zones for the projected conditions (a) are the Gulfs of Oran, Valencia and Gabès, while the Nile Delta is the region where the decrease in water quality will be less pronounced. For the projected conditions (b), the most vulnerable zone is the Ebro Delta, while the impact in the other three cases will be smaller and of comparable magnitude. Finally, the overall future impact of these hazards (associated to climatic change) in the four sites is discussed in comparative terms, deriving some conclusions.     

基于DCCA方法的成都市市区与周边城镇大气污染长程相关性分析

利用2008年1月～2012年12月期间成都市市区与其周边14个城镇的逐日空气污染指数（API）数据,采用去趋势互相关分析法（DCCA分析）研究区域城市间大气污染的相关性及其随时间演变规律。结果表明:成都市区与其周边城镇大气污染的空气污染存在一定程度的相关性,并且在不同的月份,相关性会随之发生变化。这种相关性具有长期持续特征,具体表现为在一定的时间尺度上成都市区与其周边城镇大气污染的相关性随时间的变化并不遵循经典的马尔可夫过程,即不随时间呈现指数快速衰减,而是以幂律形式随时间缓慢衰减。进一步,结合不同月份间区域大气平均流场的分布特征,探讨了DCCA分析结果的科学性。研究结果说明,在特定地理环境和气象条件控制下,成都市及其周边城市之间已经存在明显的相互输送和耦合作用,成都地区大气污染已由局地性污染转变为区域性大气污染。城市间污染物输送的长期相关影响机制极有可能在特定月份加重成都市区的空气污染状况,这在成都市区及其周边城镇的规划建设中必须加以特别重视     

A procedure to estimate worst-case air quality in complex terrain

Using a straightforward synoptic climatological analysis scheme, it is shown that the potential for an area to experience air quality degradation due to local sources is highest under polar subtropical highs. With respect to polar highs, the problem is most severe when the sun angle is low and snow covers the ground, and the polar high persists for a long period of time. A simple algorithm is introduced which is designed to estimate worst-case impact in a trapping valley. The potential for the accumulation of air pollution in such valleys due to the persistence of a polar high in a region, is ignored in current regulatory air quality assessments. Trapping valleys and synoptic flow stagnation often occur in wilderness areas. Refined air quality assessments are shown to be possible using a mesoscale meteorological model and a pollution dispersion model. These tools permit quantitative assessments of pollution build-up from local sources as a result of the recirculation of the local air. This tool, along with the synoptic climatological classification scheme, also permits an evaluation of the fractional contribution of long range versus local sources in the air quality degradation in a region. Areas near the center of a polar or subtropical surface high pressure system, for instance, appear to be dominated by local sources, if they exist, whereas in the vicinity of extratropical cyclones, long-range transport is usually much more important.     

中国大气环境治理的新启示--来自武汉疫情管控期间的自然实验

在武汉疫情管控期间,企业经济活动和机动车活动水平明显大幅下降,大部分污染源基本停止排放,意味着在此期间全国各地区应该出现优良天气,但是事实上在我国部分地区却出现了严重雾霾天气,这种反预期现象引起人们的普遍关注,甚至怀疑我国大气环境治理是否存在失误。根据这种反预期现象,提出环境污染应当是由流量污染和存量污染共同决定的猜想。为验证这一猜想,分别假设了两种情况:第一种只有流量污染,第二种既有流量污染又有存量污染,并用武汉疫情管控前后的实际排放数据模拟得到空气质量状况,寻找雾霾形成的规律,然后与武汉疫情管控前后实际监测数据进行对比,确定反预期现象的原因。实际数据和模拟数据对比发现,实际情况与假设1不符,与假设2相符。据此认为,大气污染是由当期排放的污染与积累的存量污染共同决定。在此基础上,进一步分析存量污染造成的经济损失,分析表明:2007年被低估1.64亿元,到2017年被低估3.83亿元;在消散率为0.05、贴现率为0.01时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为6.5亿元、50.5亿元和44.0亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估44.0亿元。在消散率为0.3、贴现率为0.1时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为4.6亿元、10.5亿元和5.9亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估5.9亿元。研究发现,长期累积形成的存量污染是一个被忽视的大气污染源,从而解释了在武汉疫情管控期间低水平经济活动条件下仍然会出现重度大气污染的经验事实。其政策含义在于,制定反污染政策需要根据存量污染的特征进一步完善相关政策设计。