Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to a variety of assumptions that are difficult to meet or to apply to evolutionary timescales. Furthermore, such methods cannot be rigorously applied to high-gene-flow species. Here, we employ genetic parentage assignments in conjunction with demographic simulations to infer the level of immigration into a putative sink population. We use individual-based demographic models to estimate expected distributions of parent-offspring dyads under competing sink and closed-population models. By comparing the actual number of parent-offspring dyads (identified from multilocus genetic profiles) in a random sample of individuals taken from a population to expectations under these two contrasting demographic models, it is possible to estimate the rate of immigration and test hypotheses related to the role of immigration on population processes on an ecological timescale. The difference in the expected number of parent-offspring dyads between the two population models was greatest when immigration into the sink population was high, indicating that unlike traditional population genetic inference models, the highest degree of statistical power is achieved for the approach presented here when migration rates are high. We used the proposed genetic parentage approach to demonstrate that a threatened population of Marbled Murrelets (Braclhyrarmphus marmotus) appears to be supplemented by a low level of immigration (approximately 2-6% annually) from other populations.     

Understanding abundance patterns of a declining seabird: implications for monitoring.

The Kittlitz's Murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare, non-colonial seabird often associated with tidewater glaciers and a recent candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act. We estimated abundance of Kittlitz's Murrelets across space and time from at-sea surveys along the coast of Alaska (USA) and then used these data to develop spatial models to describe abundance patterns and identify environmental factors affecting abundance. Over a five-week period in the summer of 2005, we recorded 794 Kittlitz's Murrelets, 16 Marbled Murrelets (B. marmoratus), and 70 unidentified murrelets. The overall population estimate (N, mean +/- SE) during the peak period (3-9 July) was 1317 +/- 294 birds, decreasing to 68 +/- 37 by the last survey period (31 July-6 August). Density of Kittlitz's Murrelets was highest in pelagic waters of Taan Fjord (18.6 +/- 7.8 birds/km2, mean +/- SE) during 10-16 July. Spatial models identified consistent "hotspots" of Kittlitz's Murrelets, including several small areas where high densities of murrelets were found throughout the survey period. Of the explanatory variables that we evaluated, tidal current strength influenced murrelet abundance most consistently, with higher abundance associated with strong tidal currents. Simulations based on the empirically derived estimates of variation demonstrated that spatial variation strongly influenced power to detect trend, although power changed little across the threefold difference in the coefficient of variation on detection probability. We include recommendations for monitoring Kittlitz's Murrelets (or other marine species) when there is a high degree of uncertainty about factors affecting abundance, especially spatial variability.     

Applying the Declining Population Paradigm: Diagnosing Causes of Poor Reproduction in the Marbled Murrelet

Abstract:  We identified six approaches to diagnosing causes of population declines and illustrate the use of the most general one ("multiple competing hypotheses") to determine which of three candidate limiting factors—food availability, nesting site availability, and nest predation—were responsible for the exceptionally poor reproduction of Marbled Murrelets (  Brachyramphus marmoratus ) in central California. We predicted how six attributes of murrelet demography, behavior, and physiology should be affected by the candidate limiting factors and tested predictions with field data collected over 2 years. The average proportion of breeders, as estimated with radiotelemetry, was low (0.31) and varied significantly between years: 0.11 in 2000 and 0.50 in 2001. Murrelets spent significantly more time foraging in 2000 than in 2001, suggesting that low food availability limited breeding in 2000. In 2001, 50% of radio-marked murrelets nested and 67% of females were in breeding condition, suggesting that enough nest sites existed for much of the population to breed. However, rates of nest failure and nest predation were high (0.84 and 0.67–0.81, respectively) and few young were produced, even when a relatively high proportion of murrelets bred. Thus, we suggest that reproduction of Marbled Murrelets in central California is limited by food availability in some years and by nest predation in others, but apparently is not limited by availability of nesting sites. The multiple-competing-hypotheses approach provides a rigorous framework for identifying causes of population declines because it integrates multiple types of data sets and can incorporate elements of other commonly used approaches.     

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.     

From population sources to sieves: the matrix alters host-parasitoid source-sink structure

Field experiments that examine the impact of immigration, emigration, or landscape structure (e.g., the composition of the matrix) on the source sink dynamics of fragmented populations are scarce. Here, planthoppers (Prokelisia crocea) and egg parasitoids (Anagrus columbi) were released among host-plant patches that varied in structural (caged, isolated, or in a network of other patches) and functional (mudflat matrix that impedes dispersal vs. brome-grass matrix that facilitates dispersal) connectivity. Planthoppers and parasitoids on caged patches exhibited density-dependent growth rates, achieved high equilibrium densities, and rarely went extinct. Therefore, experimental cordgrass patches were classified as population sources. Because access to immigrants did not result in elevated population densities, source populations were not also pseudosinks, i.e., patches whose densities occur above carrying capacity due to high immigration. Planthoppers and parasitoids in open patches in mudflat had dynamics similar to those in caged patches, but went extinct in 4-5 generations in open patches in brome. Brome-embedded patches leaked emigrants at a rate that exceeded the gains from reproduction and immigration; populations of this sort are known as population sieves. For species whose suitable patches are becoming smaller and more isolated as a result of increased habitat fragmentation, emigration losses are likely to become paramount, a condition favoring the formation of population sieves. An increase in the proportion of patches that are sieves is predicted to destabilize regional population dynamics.     

The Roles of Introduced Rats and Commercial Fishing in the Decline of Ancient Murrelets on Langara Island, British Columbia

I examined the decline of Ancient Murrelets ( Synthliboramphus antiquus ), a small, burrow-nesting seabird, at Langara Island. The island's seabird colony was historically one of the largest colonies of Ancient Murrelets in British Columbia—perhaps in the world—with an estimated 200,000 nesting pairs. I reviewed historical information and compared the results of surveys from 1981 and 1988 that employed the same census protocol. The extent of the colony, a potential index of population size, declined from 101 ha in 1981 to 48 ha in 1988. Burrow density increased during the same period, however, suggesting that the colony bad consolidated. In 1988, the population estimate was 24,200 ± 4000 (S.E.) breeding pairs compared to 22,000 ± 3700 in 1981. in 1988, 29% of the burrows that were completely searched contained bones of Ancient Murrelets. Bones were most common in burrows located in abandoned areas of the colony and were least common where burrow occupancy was high. The discovery of adult Ancient Murrelets killed in their burrows by introduced rats, combined with the high proportion of burrows with bones, suggests that rats ( Rattus rattus and R. norvegicus ) have contributed significantly to the decline of the population. In addition, the presence and activities of a salmon-fishing fleet in the 1950s and 1960s may also be linked to the decline of the Langara Ancient Murrelet population during that period because these fisheries are known to have caused heavy mortality through fatal light attraction and drowning in gill nets. The combined effects of ongoing predation by introduced rats and—to a lesser extent—previous, episodic fishery-induced mortality are probable causes for the population decline.     

Competitive organization of the soft-bottom macrobenthic communities of southern California lagoons

The sandy-bottom macrobenthic community of Mugu Lagoon, a relatively pristine southern California (USA) marine lagoon, demonstrated (1) nearly constant community composition over 37 months of observation, (2) relatively little temporal variability in the population densities of the most abundant species over 37 months, and (3) a pattern of depth stratification in which very little vertical overlap existed among the six most abundant species. The only two species whose vertical distributions overlapped broadly showed horizontal spatial segregation, each abundant in different areas within the sand habitat. These community characteristics imply the importance of biological factors in structuring the sand benthos. The relatively large volume required for living space by these macrofauna suggests that competition for space may be the biological factor most important in determining the observed temporal and spatial abundance patterns. The muddy-sand community and the mud community of Mugu Lagoon also revealed similar patterns of stratification: new abundant species replaced species at the same sedimentary level while not greatly affecting species populations at other non-overlapping levels. In the sand community of Tijuana Slough, two of the abundant species of Mugu Lagoon's sand community were nearly absent as an apparent result of human over-exploitation. Probably in response, densities of species living at the sedimentary levels normally occupied by the missing species were much higher than would be predicted if competition for space were unimportant. In field experiments, removal of the deposit feeder Callianassa californiensis resulted in high recruitment of Sanguinolaria nuttallii, whereas control areas showed no S. nuttallii recruitment. Experiments also suggest that negative intraspecific interactions between Cryptomya californica individuals may explain the observed rapid emigration from areas of artificially high density. Perhaps the relatively great environmental predictability of southern California lagoons has permitted competitive interactions to play a singnificant role in determining the temporal and spatial abundance patterns of the soft-bottom macrobenthos.     

Relation between Occupancy and Abundance for a Territorial Species,the California Spotted Owl

Land and resource managers often use detection–nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark‐recapture studies, using detection–nondetection surveys is more cost‐effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection–nondetection data (relative to mark‐recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λ_t) and the resulting realized population change (Δ_t) from both occupancy and mark‐recapture data collected over 18 years (1993–2010). We used multiseason, robust‐design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δ_t = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552–0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates ( = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates ( = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal‐symmetry model for mark‐recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δ_t = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445–1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study ( = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly ( = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection–nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark‐recapture studies. Relación entre Ocupación y Abundancia en una Especie Territorial, el Búho Moteado de California     

Information processing in models for density-dependent emigration: A comparison

Density-dependent emigration has been recognized as a fitness enhancing strategy. Yet, especially in the modelling literature there is no consensus about how density-dependent emigration should quantitatively be incorporated into metapopulation models. In this paper we compare the performance of five different dispersal strategies (defined by the functional link between density and emigration probability). Four of these strategies are based on published functional relationships between local population density and emigration probability, one assumes density-independent dispersal. We use individual-based simulations of time-discrete metapopulation dynamics and conduct evolution experiments for a broad range of values for dispersal mortality and environmental stochasticity. For each set of these conditions we analyze the evolution of emigration rates in ‘monoculture experiments’ (with only one type of dispersal strategy used by all individuals in the metapopulation) as well as in selection experiments that allow a pair-wise comparison of the performance of each functional type. We find that a single-parameter ‘asymptotic threshold’ strategy - derived from the marginal value theorem - with a decelerating increase of emigration rate with increasing population density, out-competes any other strategy, i.e. density-independent emigration, a ‘linear threshold’ strategy and a flexible three-parameter strategy. Only when environmental conditions select for extremely high emigration probabilities (close to one), strategies may perform approximately equally. A simple threshold strategy derived for the case of continuous population growth performs even worse than the density-independent strategy. As the functional type of the dispersal function implemented in metapopulation models may severely affect predictions concerning the survival of populations, range expansion, or community changes we clearly recommend to carefully select adequate functions to model density-dependent dispersal.     

Negative relationship between dispersal distance and demography in butterfly metapopulations

Little is known about the connection between demography and dispersal in metapopulations. The meta-analysis of the population time series of five butterfly species indicated that (meta)population dynamics are driven by density-dependent factors. Inter-specific comparison reveals a significant inverse relationship between population growth rate and the magnitude of dispersal distance. As the range of dispersal distances is constrained by the patch system, dispersing individuals moving too far away would (probably) get lost. This generates selective pressures on individuals with a high dispersal propensity, but favors individuals investing more in reproduction and results in a higher (meta)population growth rate. From a conservation perspective, individuals from (meta)populations and species sacrificing dispersal for the sake of reproductive performances are most vulnerable because of their higher sensitivity to stochastic events: the temporal variation of growth rate was much higher in the two metapopulations where dispersal was limited.     

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.     

Intercontinental tests of the effects of habitat patch type on the distribution of chitons within and among patches in intertidal boulder field landscapes

Patchy distributions within landscapes may be caused by migration in response to different types of habitat patches. Intertidal boulder fields are landscapes in which boulders are discrete habitat patches, often with chitons attached to their under-surfaces. Chiton densities and associations with patch edges differed between boulders overlying coarse- versus fine-sediment types, with greater densities occurring over fine sediments. We tested whether adult migration caused between-boulder distributions by measuring immigration and emigration following experimental replacement of coarse sediments with fine sediment under boulders. We also assessed whether the manipulations altered chiton positions relative to patch edges, and large-scale generality was tested by including data from two continents. The manipulations did not influence the association of chitons with edges or amounts of emigration, but chitons did display positive density-dependent immigration that mirrored their distributional patterns, indicating the importance of immigration. Strikingly, all results were consistent between continents despite involving different species and even genera of chitons. By using boulder fields as a small-scale, easily manipulated landscape, we show that, even in sedentary organisms, patchy distributions within landscapes can be caused by migration alone, without the need to invoke mortality or larval recruitment.     

Genetic heterogeneity among adult and recruit red sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus franciscanus

Allozyme electrophoresis was used to characterize genetic variation within and among natural populations of the red sea urchin Strongylocentrotus franciscanus. In 1995 to 1996, adult urchins were sampled from twelve geographically separated populations, seven from northern California and five from southern California (including Santa Rosa Island). Significant population heterogeneity in allelic frequencies was observed at five of six polymorphic loci. No geographic pattern of differentiation was evident; neighboring populations were often more genetically differentiated than distant populations. Northern and southern populations were not consistently distinguishable at any of the six loci. In order to assess within-population genetic variation and patterns of recruitment, large samples were collected from several northern California populations in 1996 and 1997, and were divided into three size classes, roughly representing large adults (>60 mm), medium-sized individuals (31 to 60 mm, “subadults”) and individuals <2 yr of age (≤30 mm test diam, referred to as “recruits”). Comparisons of allelic counts revealed significant spatial and temporal differentiation among size-stratified population samples. Recruit samples differed significantly from adult samples collected at the same locale, and showed extensive between-year variation. Genetic differentiation among recruit samples was much higher in 1997 than in 1996. Between-year differences within populations were always greater for recruits than for adults. Potential explanations for the differentiation of recruit samples include pre- and post-settlement natural selection and high interfamily variance in reproductive success or “sweepstakes” recruitment. Unless recruit differentiation can be attributed to an improbable combination of strong and spatially diverse selection, such differentiation across northern California populations indicates that the larval pool is not well mixed geographically (even on spatial scales <20 km), despite long planktonic larval duration. Received: 6 July 1999 / Accepted: 25 January 2000     

Individual dispersal status influences space use of conspecific residents in the common lizard, Lacerta vivipara

The effects of immigration on the behaviour of residents may have important implications for the local population characteristics. A manipulative laboratory experiment with yearlings of the common lizard (Lacerta vivipara) was performed to test whether the introduction of dispersing or philopatric individuals influences the short-term spacing behaviour of resident individuals. Staged encounters were carried out to induce interactions within dyads. The home cage of each responding individual was connected by a corridor to an unfamiliar “arrival cage” to measure the latency to leave their own home cage after each encounter. Our results showed that the time that pairs spent in close proximity was longer when a dispersing individual was introduced in the home cage. The latency to leave the home cage was longer after the introduction of a dispersing individual. These response variables were not influenced by the relative body sizes of contestants nor by the level of aggression towards each other. In contrast, the aggressive response was significantly influenced by the residency asymmetry established experimentally (“owner” of the home cage vs introduced individual). Our results suggest that the space use by resident individuals is influenced by the dispersal status of conspecifics. The potential ultimate causes driving this effect are discussed.     

Growth and mortality of subtidal red sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus franciscanus) at San Nicolas Island,California, USA: problems with models

Red sea urchins, Strongylocentrotus franciscanus, were tagged with tetracycline in 1990 at subtidal sites off San Nicolas Island, California, USA. After one year in the field, the sea urchins were collected and growth increments were measured based on tetracycline marks, which indicated initial slow growth, a maximum rate, and finally a prolonged period of very slow growth. Small red sea urchins (4 cm diam) were estimated to be 3 to 4 yr old, which is much older than has previously been reported. It is estimated that about 12 yr would be required to attain 10 cm diam. Survival has previously been modeled assuming a constant rate. If the population of red sea urchins is assumed to be stable and stationary, annual survival rate was between 71 and 77% yr^-1. Census data for the two years of study have permitted annual survival to be estimated without assuming stable and stationary population structure. Under these conditions, annual survival rate was between 79 and 86% yr^-1. Analysis of transitions in the size distributions from 1990 to 1991 suggested that annual survival may have been sizespecific: 91% yr^-1 for individuals 1.1 to 4.0 cm diam, 82% yr^-1 for individuals 4.1 to 7.0 cm diam, and 63% yr^-1 for those of 7.1 to 10.0 cm diam. An alternative explanation to size-specific survival in our study is sizespecific immigration.     

Cougar Dispersal Patterns, Metapopulation Dynamics, and Conservation

Abstract: We examined cougar (   Puma concolor ) dispersal, emigration, and immigration in the San Andres Mountains, New Mexico, from 1985 to 1995 to quantify the effects of dispersal on the local population and surrounding subpopulations. We captured, tagged, and radio-collared animals to detect the arrival of new immigrants and dispersal characteristics of progeny. We found that cougars in southern New Mexico exhibited a metapopulation structure in which cougar subpopulations were separated by expanses of noncougar habitat and linked by dispersers. Of 43 progeny (n = 20 males , 23 females ) studied after independence, only 13 females exhibited philopatric behavior. Males dispersed significantly farther than females, were more likely to traverse large expanses of noncougar habitat, and were probably most responsible for nuclear gene flow between habitat patches. We estimated that an average of 8.5 progeny (i.e., cougars born in the study area) successfully emigrated from and 4.3 cougars successfully immigrated to the San Andres Mountains each year. Concurrently, an average of 4.1 progeny were recruited into the San Andres cougar population. Protected cougar subpopulations can contribute to metapopulation persistence by supplying immigrants to surrounding subpopulations that are affected by fragmentation or offtake by humans. Cougar population dynamics and dispersal behavior dictate that cougar management and conservation should be considered on a regional scale.     

Photographic mark-recapture analysis of local dynamics within an open population of dolphins

Identifying demographic changes is important for understanding population dynamics. However, this requires long-term studies of definable populations of distinct individuals, which can be particularly challenging when studying mobile cetaceans in the marine environment. We collected photo-identification data from 19 years (1992-2010) to assess the dynamics of a population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) restricted to the shallow (<7 m) waters of Little Bahama Bank, northern Bahamas. This population was known to range beyond our study area, so we adopted a Bayesian mixture modeling approach to mark-recapture to identify clusters of individuals that used the area to different extents, and we specifically estimated trends in survival, recruitment, and abundance of a "resident" population with high probabilities of identification. There was a high probability (p= 0.97) of a long-term decrease in the size of this resident population from a maximum of 47 dolphins (95% highest posterior density intervals, HPDI = 29-61) in 1996 to a minimum of just 24 dolphins (95% HPDI = 14-37) in 2009, a decline of 49% (95% HPDI = approximately 5% to approximately 75%). This was driven by low per capita recruitment (average approximately 0.02) that could not compensate for relatively low apparent survival rates (average approximately 0.94). Notably, there was a significant increase in apparent mortality (approximately 5 apparent mortalities vs. approximately 2 on average) in 1999 when two intense hurricanes passed over the study area, with a high probability (p = 0.83) of a drop below the average survival probability (approximately 0.91 in 1999; approximately 0.94, on average). As such, our mark-recapture approach enabled us to make useful inference about local dynamics within an open population of bottlenose dolphins; this should be applicable to other studies challenged by sampling highly mobile individuals with heterogeneous space use.     

The control of emigration and its consequences for the survival of populations

Dispersal is the key process enhancing the long-term persistence of metapopulations in heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes. However, any individual emigrating from a occupied patch also increases the risk of local population extinction. The consequences of this increase for metapopulation persistence likely depend on the control of emigration. In this paper, we present results of individual-based simulations to compare the consequences of density-independent (DIE) and density-dependent (DDE) emigration on the extinction risk of local populations and a two-patch metapopulation. (1) For completely isolated patches extinction risk increases linearly with realised emigration rates in the DIE scenario. (2) For the DDE scenario extinction risk is nearly insensitive to emigration as longs as emigration probabilities remain below ≈0.2. Survival chances are up to half an order of magnitude larger than for populations with DIE. (3) For low dispersal mortality both modes of emigration increase survival of a metapopulation by ca. one order of magnitude. (4) For high dispersal mortality only DDE can improve the global survival chances of the metapopulation. (5) With DDE individuals are only removed from a population at high population density and the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity is thus much smaller compared to the DIE scenario.With density-dependent emigration prospects of metapopulations survival may thus be much higher compared to a system with density-independent emigration. Consequently, the knowledge about the factors driving emigration may significantly affect our conclusions concerning the conservation status of species.     

Population dynamics of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus in a Central California kelp forest: recruitment,mortality, growth,and diet

The population dynamics of Strongylocentrotus purpuratus inhabiting dense mats of geniculate coralline algae in a shallow central California Macrocystis pyrifera forest was examined. Sea otters had occupied the area for over two decades. Sea urchin density and size distribution were sampled during 1984–1986 to determine recruitment and mortality patterns. Growth rates were obtained from tetracycline-labeled individuals and changes in sizefrequency modes. Periodic collections were made to examine gut contents and the relationship of diet to food availability. The interaction of recruitment and mortality resulted in a dynamic population structure. Mean densities ranged from 6.5 to 12.7 urchins 0.25 m^-2. The population consisted primarily of urchins up to 40 mm in test diameter in a size distribution which changed from unimodal to bimodal and back over the 2 yr study. Mortality was temporally variable and related to test diameter. Growth rates were somewhat lower than most previous reports for the species and suggested that most of the population was made up of 1 and 2 yr-old individuals. Diet consisted largely of geniculate coralline algae, with fleshy brown algae becoming important when available as drift. This study showed high densities of small urchins can exist in a California kelp forest inhabited by sea otters, but regular recruitment may be necessary to maintain such populations.     

Use of Spatial Capture‐Recapture Modeling and DNA Data to Estimate Densities of Elusive Animals

Abstract: Assessment of abundance, survival, recruitment rates, and density (i.e., population assessment) is especially challenging for elusive species most in need of protection (e.g., rare carnivores). Individual identification methods, such as DNA sampling, provide ways of studying such species efficiently and noninvasively. Additionally, statistical methods that correct for undetected animals and account for locations where animals are captured are available to efficiently estimate density and other demographic parameters. We collected hair samples of European wildcat (Felis silvestris) from cheek‐rub lure sticks, extracted DNA from the samples, and identified each animals’ genotype. To estimate the density of wildcats, we used Bayesian inference in a spatial capture‐recapture model. We used WinBUGS to fit a model that accounted for differences in detection probability among individuals and seasons and between two lure arrays. We detected 21 individual wildcats (including possible hybrids) 47 times. Wildcat density was estimated at 0.29/km² (SE 0.06), and 95% of the activity of wildcats was estimated to occur within 1.83 km from their home‐range center. Lures located systematically were associated with a greater number of detections than lures placed in a cell on the basis of expert opinion. Detection probability of individual cats was greatest in late March. Our model is a generalized linear mixed model; hence, it can be easily extended, for instance, to incorporate trap‐ and individual‐level covariates. We believe that the combined use of noninvasive sampling techniques and spatial capture‐recapture models will improve population assessments, especially for rare and elusive animals.