"环境中女性角色确立系统模型"研究

女性在环境保护与自然资源的开发利用中具有积极的作用。但长期以来受传统观念桎梏。女性在环境保护中的作用受捌低估乃至忽视．从一定程度上导致了环境恶化．自然资源的配置失效。“环境中女性角色确立系统模型”的研究可有效解读女性角色与环境保护间的关系。并提出如何提高女性在环境保护中的作用。从而保障在一个性别平等的文明社会里人类可持续发展目标的实现。     

国家资源安全及其系统分析

资源安全是一个国家或地区可以持续、稳定、及时、足量和经济地获取所需自然资源的状态或能力。影响资源安全的因素主要包括结构、质量、数量、空间、价格、技术、制度等。分析了国家资源安全的主体目标导向性、实现过程可调控性、发展演化的长期性、空间层次差异性和系统内外互动性等特性。构建了包括社会、经济、资源、生态环境、政策法律等子系统在内的国家资源安全的系统分析框架。运用PSR模型，进行了国家资源安全系统动力学分析。     

Linking global drivers with local and regional change: a social-ecological system approach in Chilika Lagoon,Bay of Bengal

Global scale drivers such as international markets for shrimp can trigger large changes at local and regional scales. But there is also a poorly appreciated reverse process, operating from the bottom up, with potential for triggering changes at higher scales. Thus, effects of drivers can be seen as a two-way process in which global drivers and local and regional drivers can potentially impact each other. Here, we argue that not only can global drivers impact the sustainability of local and regional social-ecological systems, but sustainability at higher scales can also be impacted by changes at the scale of local and regional social-ecological systems. Using Chilika, a large lagoon on the Bay of Bengal, Odisha State in India as a case, we show that traditional small-scale capture fisheries supporting 150 fisher villages with some 400,000 people were marginalized by aquaculture development for tiger prawn and by state-driven hydrological interventions, with impacts on the ecology of the lagoon. These changes, in turn, contribute to global poverty and food insecurity, making it difficult for India to meet international targets such as millennium development goals. The marginalized fisherfolk become part of environmental justice and other social movements. With large parts of the lagoon converted into a virtual monoculture for the production of tiger prawn, changes in Chilika (a Ramsar site) contribute to wetland habitat loss at the global scale, and biodiversity losses, possibly including IUCN red-listed species.     

On shrimp,salt and security: livelihood risks and responses in South Bangladesh and East India

Bangladesh and India are among the world’s most populous but also most vulnerable countries to environmental risks. In addition to storms, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, local communities face a multitude of pre-existing and concomitant economic and socio-political risks. To understand these risks and how communities respond to them is critical in securing community livelihoods. We therefore ask what are the livelihood risks; how do they impact the human security of environment sensitive communities in Satkhira, Bangladesh and in Odisha, India; and, what are the responses of these communities to the livelihood risks? The communities studied in Bangladesh depend mainly on the shrimp and fish resources of the Sundarbans mangrove forest. The two communities researched at Lake Chilika in India depend on fishing and salt farming, respectively. The field research, conducted in 2012 and 2013, shows that the communities face multiple and interacting livelihood risks. While storms and floods are common environmental risks in both countries, related livelihood risks are case-specific. In Bangladesh, attacks by criminals are the major threat to human well-being, while in India, it is violent conflict between lake users. Unsustainable resource extraction is found in both study countries. In Bangladesh, shrimp farming weakens the flood protection, while in India, illegal prawn farming marginalizes poorer lake users. Accessing loans and labor migration are responses observed in both countries. We conclude that adaptation to environmental changes needs to be sensitive to the interaction between governance, local institutions and socio-economic developments.     

基于区间直觉模糊集的水资源配置群决策研究

水资源问题是我国面临的重要资源与环境问题。流域水资源配置的有效性缺失也使水资源问题进一步恶化，而水资源配置过程中大量不确定信息也使高效决策问题更加困难。基于区间直觉模糊群决策的水资源配置方案优化方法，分析了水资源系统作为复杂系统的特殊性和区间直觉模糊理论在群决策中应用的优势，利用区间模糊数来表达专家判断信息，提高了流域水资源配置方案的合理性。通过多个水资源领域专家的群体决策，从流域水资源可持续利用评价视角出发，针对流域的社会、经济、资源、环境等多个因素进行判断，利用IIWAA算子进行群体意见集成，最后根据流域指标与理想点逼近点的距离对流域水资源配置方案排序。通过赣抚平原灌区内的用水区域在不同方案情景下的水资源可持续利用实例分析表明，该方法能够比较准确地评估出流域水资源配置方案的可持续性，为流域的水资源配置方案制定提供有效合理的决策支持     

Conflicts between stakeholder groups affecting the ecology and economy of the Segara Anakan region

This study analyses how the conflict potential between different stakeholder groups is affecting the ecology and economy of the Segara Anakan region, a mangrove-fringed lagoon in central Java, Indonesia. The lagoon’s increasing sedimentation/silting up and the area’s expanding population has led to various interest groups conflicting with one another over how the resources of the lagoon and its surrounding area are to be utilized. Conflicts arise between occupational and ethnic groups in the lagoon’s bordering villages in the context of a transformation from fisheries to wetland agriculture. Land and mangrove use is therefore a cause for conflict between multiple groups, including Javanese fishermen, Sundanese farmers from Central and West Java and external shrimp farm owners. A result of the “Segara Anakan Development Project”—an 8-year undertaking that began in 1996—is that the lagoon was frequently dredged. Due to the dredging and resulting contamination of the land, a regional clash was triggered between Sundanese farmers and Javanese fishers. Our study reveals that the conflict potential between the various interest groups in the Segara Anakan Lagoon area could be reduced if the scarcity of natural resources were alleviated. Religious aspects also play a large role in marine resource utilization. Recognizing that the human utilization of natural resources is strongly symbolic and thereby culturally defined, we unravel the resource conflicts in our study area and offer some strategic approaches towards more sustainable outcomes.     

基于AHP-LP法的南水北调中线水资源优化配置——以河北省受水区为例

水资源是不可替代的重要自然资源和战略性经济资源,水资源优化配置是解决水资源问题的重要手段.为促进区域水资源供需状况相对平衡,按可持续发展的要求,根据区域水资源优化配置的含义和南水北调河北省受水区的具体情况,以有限水资源综合效益最大为目标,考虑水源可供水量、用户需水量和水环境与经济系统协调发展等约束,采用层次分析法与线性规划法相结合的方法,建立了水资源优化配置模型,并对模型的目标函数、约束条件和主要参数确定进行了初步探讨.最后用该模型进行了南水北调河北省受水区2005年和2010年95%保证率下的水资源优化配置研究,并对求解结果进行了分析、评价及展望.结果表明,南水北调工程实施后,能够解决河北省受水区严重缺水的状况.     

Population dynamics,rural livelihoods and environmental degradation: some experiences from Tanzania

Population growth and environmental degradation are closely linked. Increasing population has in many rural areas of Tanzania contributed to changes in land use/cover patterns, land fragmentation and livelihood insecurity. Increasing demand for food, energy and other environmental services has contributed to expansion of agriculture, including marginal areas, and deforestation often leading to environmental degradation. Increased reliance on natural resources for rural livelihoods, subsistence nature of the agricultural sector and limited economic opportunities in rural areas are among the factors leading to rural–rural and rural–urban migrations searching for better livelihood opportunities. The high urban demand for food and biomass energy from rural areas has also contributed to rural deforestation and overall environmental degradation. This paper addresses the linkages between population and environmental degradation in Tanzania. It argues that effective implementation of development and resources management policies can lead to environmental sustainability even with growing populations. It provides evidence from successful land management interventions such as HADO, HASHI and SECAP, which support the argument that with effective implementation of resource management initiatives even larger populations can be supported by the available resources. Such successful interventions ought to be emulated elsewhere with similar environmental problems.     

基于AHP LP法的南水北调中线水资源优化配置

水资源是不可替代的重要自然资源和战略性经济资源，水资源优化配置是解决水资源问题的重要手段。为促进区域水资源供需状况相对平衡，按可持续发展的要求，根据区域水资源优化配置的含义和南水北调河北省受水区的具体情况，以有限水资源综合效益最大为目标，考虑水源可供水量、用户需水量和水环境与经济系统协调发展等约束，采用层次分析法与线性规划法相结合的方法，建立了水资源优化配置模型，并对模型的目标函数、约束条件和主要参数确定进行了初步探讨。最后用该模型进行了南水北调河北省受水区2005年和2010年95%保证率下的水资源优化配置研究，并对求解结果进行了分析、评价及展望。结果表明，南水北调工程实施后，能够解决河北省受水区严重缺水的状况。     

土地资源错配及经济效率损失研究

长期以来,政府主导下的土地资源配置模式为中国的城镇化、工业化快速发展提供了强有力的支撑,但同时也伴随着土地制度和政策不完善引致的土地资源配置扭曲,不同用地单位之间土地资源配置效率差异较大,不同用地单位之间的土地资源错配致使总体经济效率损失巨大。调研组通过实地随机抽样问卷调查,获取了四大产业不同类型的607个样本企业生产经营活动相关的投入产出数据,基于C-D生产函数理论,构建土地资源配置及经济效率损失测度模型,测算不同类型企业的土地资源要素错配程度及由此导致的经济效率损失。测算结果显示,环保、生物和高端装备制造产业的土地资源要素投入的相对扭曲系数都大于1,光电子信息产业系数小于1;土地资源错配造成光电子信息产业总体上经济效率损失达10.23%,高端装备制造产业达13.82%,生物产业和环保节能产业都超过了20%。研究表明,不同类型企业之间的土地资源要素投入对企业总体经济产出的贡献率存在显著差异性;同类型企业的土地资源要素配置的相对扭曲系数不同,即土地资源的错配程度不同;从用地规模大小角度分析,同类型企业用地规模大的土地资源要素的相对扭曲系数要明显高于用地规模小的企业,用地规模越大土地资源错配程度越严重;从土地资源错配造成企业经济效率损失测算结果来看,土地资源要素投入相对扭曲系数越大的企业,土地资源错配导致总体经济效率损失越大;在各类型企业的技术和规模效率不变的条件下,不增加资源要素投入,通过纠正企业的土地资源错配,能够有效地提升企业的经济效率。     

水资源所有权问题研究

我国水资源短缺和水污染问题严重,最根本的原因是水资源产权制度尤其是水资源所有权制度不合理。从水资源配置的效率与公平角度,依据产权经济学理论,对水资源所有权及其分配问题进行了探讨：对水资源所有者产权与他物权,江河湖泊等水体所有权和水体所蕴含水资源所有权进行了区分;以水资源是社会成员生存与发展的自然物质基础、水资源的竞用性和水资源自然供给的区域性为依据,探讨了江河、湖泊等水体水资源所有权的权属界定,水资源所有权在社会成员间的合理分配,国家与水资源所有权的关系和国家拥有的水资源所有权的性质;最后提出了既能保障社会成员生存与发展权利,又能实现资源配置效率与公平的以社会成员所有为主的水资源所有制。     

Multicriteria decision-making for efficient water and land resources allocation in irrigated agriculture

The irrational use of water in agriculture is often responsible for several problems concerning the depletion and/or the pollution of water resources. In these cases specific policy measures should be taken to protect water resources from harmful agricultural activities, mitigating at the same time their potential impact on farmers’ welfare. To this end, a multicriteria decision-making model is formulated that aims at allocating efficiently water and land resources in a rural area of Greece, by optimizing a set of important socio-economic and environmental objectives. According to the model’s output, past and current decisions on irrigated agriculture turned out to be oriented towards meeting exclusively the socio-economic objectives. Yet, there are several other possible allocations schemes that could be applied in order to improve the performance of environmental indicators and to contribute to a more sustainable use of natural resources. Moreover, the decision-making model can be further employed to assess a number of additional policy measures in irrigated agriculture. In this framework, the outcome of imposing various water pricing policies was evaluated. The efficiency of these policies was found tightly connected to the elasticity of water demand. Namely, higher elasticity seems to enhance the flexibility in resource allocation and the movement towards environmental objectives. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

How much real cost has China paid for its economic growth?

China’s economic growth has a serious impact on the environment and resources. How much real cost did China pay for its economic growth? This paper estimates the monetary costs of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation. The paper examines the geographic distribution of resource and environmental losses across 31 provinces. The findings allow us to reach the following conclusions. First, the national cost of resource depletion, environmental pollution, and ecological degradation in 2005 was 2.5 trillion RMB. It accounted for 13.5% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP). Secondly, the cost of resource depletion, ecological degradation, and environmental pollution has a different spatial distribution. The cost of resources depletion mainly distributes in the central area, the cost of environmental pollution is in the eastern area, and the cost of ecological degradation lies in the western area. Thirdly, the cost of natural resources depletion is 1,672.5 billion RMB, accounting for 67.8% of the total cost of resource and environment. It indicates that economic development has a high cost of resource depletion.     

大都市区人口空间配置优化方法研究——以无锡市区为例

大都市区是经济社会发展水平较高的区域，也是人口最为密集的区域，随着人口规模急剧增加，资源消耗、环境容量占用、污染排放均呈现出上升的态势，同时也引致交通拥挤、空间局促、公共服务供给不均等一系列社会问题，也成为制约大都市区经济社会可持续发展的主要因素。为此，许多国家和地区实施人口总量控制和区域调控政策，目的在于协调人口布局与资源环境和经济发展间的关系。在借鉴地理学传统分区方法基础上，综合考虑自然生态、资源环境、经济社会发展等方面要素，从人居环境的约束性和适宜性两方面出发，构建人口空间布局适宜性分区评价的指标体系，探讨了单元划分、指标赋值和综合评价等方法，并采用修正矩阵向量模型计算各评价单元人口布局适宜性指数，在此基础上应用同比例关联法构建了人口总量指标空间配置优化模型。最后，以无锡市区为例对分区方法和空间配置优化模型进行检验，结果表明老城区人口密度过高，环境容量趋于饱和，需要疏解人口；外围的新城和开发区所在区域，人口密度较低，人口布局适宜性也较好，是未来人口集聚的重点区域；望虞河、直湖港沿线等生态敏感区、机场周边等地区不适合大规模人口布局，需要控制甚至迁出区内人口。在此基础上提出无锡市区人口空间布局优化方案，以期为制定差别化的人口引导政策提供科学依据     

水资源持续利用的特性与原理

随着可持续发展战略的推进与实施，水资源持续利用成为可持续发展研究的重要内容，也是水资源学科和开发利用水资源中要研究的重要课题。水资源具有别于其它资源的独有特性，基于可持续发展理论分析了水资源的基本特性，包括自然特性、社会特性和经济特性。水资源的这些独有特性决定了在实现水资源持续利用中必须服从的原理。用系统学理论、公共选择理论、福利经济学理论、资源分配和市场经济理论，分析了这些基本原理。这些原理揭示了水资源利用自然、社会和经济运动规律，试图为实现水资源持续利用提供指导原则和规划思想。     

浙江省农业自然资源合理利用战略研究

针对浙江省自然资源利用程度高,资源环境压力大,资源浪费和污染等严重问题,根据浙江省资源构成特点,从资源,环境与经济协调发展的观点提出减少非农建设占用耕地,完善基本农田保护工作,绝不以牺牲现有耕地为调整农业产业结构。与此同时,积极开发后备土地资源,补充现有耕地面积;对于水资源必须依法治,管并重,节约与开源相结合,合理利用水资源,着重开发山,海资源和改善农业生态环境等战略措施。     

小城镇能源优化配置研究

构建我国能源安全体系面临诸多困境。小城镇能源保障是其最薄弱的环节之一。但小城镇能源保障及其优化配置问题并没有得到政府、学术界应有的重视。通过与城市的比较分析。得出小城镇能源类型和结构特征，指出能源自然禀赋构成小城镇能源类型和结构的“本底”。社会经济发展水平。产业结构变迁主宰小城镇能源类型和结构变迁。在此基础上，提出了小城镇能源优化配置战略目标和导向。根据这一目标和导向，对小城镇能源优化配置的政策措施进行初步探讨。包括编制小城镇能源资源利用规划；加快可再生能源的应用技术研究；建立小城镇能源资源分配、开发、流通的市场机制；保护小城镇能源资源；优化小城镇产业结构。大力推动循环经济；推广分布式能源供给模式，提高小城镇能源供给安全。     

我国粮食安全保障中改善农业环境的途径

本文分析了我国粮食安全及粮食持续生产所依托的农业环境状况。从我国粮食生产状况与经济发展水平看,全国粮食生产处于结构性过剩与低水平安全中,区域性粮食安全与不安全并存;耕地资源、水资源以及农民的经济收入状况等均不容乐观,加之自然灾害加重,粮食生产的环境成本将随之增加,这将影响我国未来粮食安全。为此,本文提出了走农业集约化道路是解决我国粮食安全与改善环境的基本途径。     

Development of a framework for sustainable uses of resources: more paper and less plastics?

Taiwan's EPA has implemented a new guideline called the "Plastic Products Restriction Policy", prohibiting some industries to use plastics as packaging materials for the sake of sustainable use of resources. The significant effect resulting from this policy is the substitution of plastic products with paper products. Is this policy beneficial to achieve future sustainability? I attempt to analyze the resource choice between renewable resources and exhaustible resources for production of final products and services in case of exhaustion of natural resources. In this paper, I develop a framework to examine the dynamic responsiveness of a socio-economical system in facing a continual depletion of natural resources provided by an environmental system. In this framework, the status of an environmental system in terms of carrying capacity is affected by the cumulative impacts caused from human activities, including environmental pollution and resource exploitation. Conversely, it also affects the growth of renewable resources. This framework can serve as a guideline to construct indicators to measure the status of the environmental system and the socio-economical system in order to support a policy planner that formulates an appropriate environmental policy. Based on this framework, I also develop a mathematical model to determine the optimal ratio of resources choice between renewable resources and exhaustible resources.     

我国耕地资源数量安全的时空差异分析

耕地资源数量安全是耕地资源安全非常重要的组成部分，它受到资源禀赋、经济发展水平、管理和政策等因素的影响。本文在分析耕地资源数量安全影响因素的基础上，构建其评价指标体系，并对我国耕地资源数量安全的时空差异规律进行了分析，结果表明。自改革开放以来，我国耕地资源数量安全状况呈先增后减的变化趋势；从安全水平的区域分布来看，北部和西部省份的安全水平普遍高于东部和南部省份，同时发现，区域安全水平与经济发展水平呈负相关关系。