Evaluation of the effect of meteorological data resolution on Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using the ETEX experiment

This paper presents results from a series of numerical experiments designed to evaluate operational long-range dispersion model simulations, and to investigate the effect of different temporal and spatial resolution of meteorological data from numerical weather prediction models on these simulations. Results of Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations of the first tracer release of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) are presented and compared with measured tracer concentrations. The use of analyzed data of higher resolution from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model produced significantly better agreement between the concentrations predicted with the dispersion model and the ETEX measurements than the use of lower resolution Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecast data. Numerical experiments were performed in which the ECMWF model data with lower vertical resolution (4 instead of 7 levels below 500 mb), lower temporal resolution (12 h instead of 6 h intervals), and lower horizontal resolution (2.5° instead of 0.5°) were used. Degrading the horizontal or temporal resolution of the ECMWF data resulted in decreased accuracy of the dispersion simulations. These results indicate that flow features resolved by the numerical weather prediction model data at approximately 45 km horizontal grid spacing and 6 h time intervals, but not resolved at 225 km spacing and 12 h intervals, made an important contribution to the long-range dispersion.     

Evaluating the ability of a numerical weather prediction model to forecast tracer concentrations during ETEX 2

In this paper the meteorological processes responsible for transporting tracer during the second ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment) release are determined using the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM predicted distribution of tracer is also compared with observations from the ETEX campaign. The dominant meteorological process is a warm conveyor belt which transports large amounts of tracer away from the surface up to a height of 4 km over a 36 h period. Convection is also an important process, transporting tracer to heights of up to 8 km. Potential sources of error when using an operational numerical weather prediction model to forecast air quality are also investigated. These potential sources of error include model dynamics, model resolution and model physics. In the UM a semi-Lagrangian monotonic advection scheme is used with cubic polynomial interpolation. This can predict unrealistic negative values of tracer which are subsequently set to zero, and hence results in an overprediction of tracer concentrations. In order to conserve mass in the UM tracer simulations it was necessary to include a flux corrected transport method. Model resolution can also affect the accuracy of predicted tracer distributions. Low resolution simulations (50 km grid length) were unable to resolve a change in wind direction observed during ETEX 2, this led to an error in the transport direction and hence an error in tracer distribution. High resolution simulations (12 km grid length) captured the change in wind direction and hence produced a tracer distribution that compared better with the observations. The representation of convective mixing was found to have a large effect on the vertical transport of tracer. Turning off the convective mixing parameterisation in the UM significantly reduced the vertical transport of tracer. Finally, air quality forecasts were found to be sensitive to the timing of synoptic scale features. Errors in the position of the cold front relative to the tracer release location of only 1 h resulted in changes in the predicted tracer concentrations that were of the same order of magnitude as the absolute tracer concentrations.     

Evaluation of a long-range lagrangian dispersion model with ETEX

Performance of a Lagrangian dispersion model was examined in connection with its dependency on the boundary layer modelling and the input data resolution. The European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) data were used as reference. According to the sensitivity analysis of the model performance, the long-range dispersion model with the sparse input data was not noticeably different from that with the finer resolution data. The assumption of the prescribed constant mixing depth did not largely degrade the prediction results as compared with the simulation results with the temporally changing boundary layer. It is, therefore, concluded that the model is practical, considering the limited input data in the operational mode. However, it was also pointed out that the parameterization for the horizontal and vertical diffusion processes used in the present model enhanced the growth of plume. The improvement of input data resolution in time and space caused further dispersion of tracer deterministically. These resulted in the underestimation of the maximum concentration and the unfocussed concentration distribution map although the mean concentration was predicted fairly well.     

The field campaigns of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX): overview and results

As part of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) two successful atmospheric experiments were carried out in October and November, 1994. Perfluorocarbon (PFC) tracers were released into the atmosphere in Monterfil, Brittany, and air samples were taken at 168 stations in 17 European countries for 72 h after the release. Upper air tracer measurements were made from three aircraft. During the first experiment a westerly air flow transported the tracer plume north-eastwards across Europe. During the second release the flow was eastwards. The results from the ground sampling network allowed the determination of the cloud evolution as far as Sweden, Poland and Bulgaria. This demonstrated that the PFT technique can be successfully applied in long-range tracer experiments up to 2000 km. Typical background concentrations of the tracer used are around 5–7 fl ?^-1 in ambient air. Concentrations in the plume ranged from 10 to above 200 fl/?^-1. The tracer release characteristics, the tracer concentrations at the ground and in upper air, the routine and additional meteorological observations at the ground level and in upper air, trajectories derived from constant-level balloons and the meteorological input fields for long-range transport models are assembled in the ETEX database. The ETEX database is accessible via the Internet. Here, an overview is given of the design of the experiment, the methods used and the data obtained.     

A statistical methodology for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models: an application to the ETEX exercise

This paper describes the statistical methodology applied to evaluate the performance of the long-range dispersion models that were used in the modelling activities of ETEX (European Tracer EXperiment). The availability of a large number of models makes this exercise rather unique. These models are used for the practical purpose to quantify the contamination effects over a vast area, following a hypothetical accidental release of harmful material. This makes the quality judgement that could be attributed to the results of each model particularly important.The statistical indicators considered to be the most effective for the evaluation of long-range dispersion models are introduced and commented, with specific examples in the frame of ETEX simulations. The importance of using several indices and critically interpreting the results is discussed.     

Bulgarian emergency response models–validation against ETEX first release

In the paper, the performance of two Bulgarian dispersion models is tested against European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) first release data base. The first one is the LED puff model which was the core of the Bulgarian Emergency Response System during all releases of ETEX. The second one is the newly created Eulerian dispersion model EMAP. These models have two important features: they are PC-oriented and they use quite a limited amount of input meteorological information. First, a number of runs with various source configurations are made on meteorological data produced by ECMWF. The aim of these runs is to verify the models’ ability to simulate reliably ETEX first release. To this end, a set of statistical criteria selected in ATMES (Atmospheric Transport Models Evaluation Study, see Klug et al., 1992 are used. The best runs for both models are obtained when the source is presented as a column towering from the ground to heights of 400–700 m. These runs took part in the second phase of ETEX (ETEX-II), the so called ATMES-type exercise where EMAP ranked ninth and LED - fourteenth among 34 models. Here, additional sets of EMAP are presented where in the first run the value of the horizontal diffusion coefficient is varied and in the other runs different meteorological data sets are tested. The results obtained from the first run show that the values of K_h=4–6×10⁴ m² s^-1 produce fields which fit experimental data best. The other sets of runs show that the higher the frequency of the meteorological data, the better the simulation. The results can be improved by linear interpolation of the meteorological parameters with time, the best fitting obtained with interpolation at each time step.     

Comparison of constant volume balloons, model trajectories and tracer transport during ETEX

In the field phases of the European Tracer EXperiment (ETEX), an inert tracer was released for 12 h into the atmosphere and samples taken at several locations downwind. During the same time, several Constant Volume Balloons (CVB) (10 and 6 for ETEX first and second release, respectively) were launched into different altitudes and followed as far as 21–188 km, to indicate the initial dispersion directions of the tracer puff. A model simulating the CVB behaviour in hydrostatic meso-scale model forecasts is applied to ETEX data to demonstrate its capability to predict the tracer puff mean axis over long distances (−2000 km). CVB model results are first compared to air parcels trajectories and 2D (i.e. isentropic, isobaric and isodensity) trajectories. Then they are compared to the measured CVB trajectories and finally to the tracer puff trajectories. As expected, the CVB model and isodensity model trajectories are found to be identical. The 16 CVBs calculated trajectories nearly overlap the real ones over 21–188 km with mean absolute horizontal transport deviations less than 20 km (average value of 8.2 km). The corresponding relative transport deviations are less than 45% with an average value of 20.6%. Better predictions are obtained for the ETEX second release. During the 60 h following ETEX’s first release start, the simulated CVBs are mainly found in the area of the maximum surface concentrations of the released tracer, up to 2000 km. Up to 36 h after ETEX second tracer release start, the simulated CVB trajectories predict well the mean axis of the tracer puff, but failed later.     

Mesoscale influence on long-range transport — evidence from ETEX modelling and observations

During the first European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) tracer gas was released from a site in Brittany, France, and subsequently observed over a range of 2000 km. Hourly measurements were taken at the National Environmental Research Institute (NERI) located at Risø, Denmark, using two measurement techniques. At this location, the observed concentration time series shows a double-peak structure occurring between two and three days after the release. By using the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is developed at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), simulations of the dispersion of the tracer gas have been performed. Using numerical weather-prediction data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) by DERMA, the arrival time of the tracer is quite well predicted, so also is the duration of the passage of the plume, but the double-peak structure is not reproduced. However, using higher-resolution data from the DMI version of the HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model (DMI-HIRLAM), DERMA reproduces the observed structure very well. The double-peak structure is caused by the influence of a mesoscale anti-cyclonic eddy on the tracer gas plume about one day earlier.     

Data assimilation in meteorological pre-processors: Effects on atmospheric dispersion simulations

In previous work [Kovalets, I., Andronopoulos, S., Bartzis, J.G., Gounaris, N., Kushchan, A., 2004. Introduction of data assimilation procedures in the meteorological pre-processor of atmospheric dispersion models used in emergency response systems. Atmospheric Environment 38, 457–467.] the authors have developed data assimilation (DA) procedures and implemented them in the frames of a diagnostic meteorological pre-processor (MPP) to enable simultaneous use of meteorological measurements with numerical weather prediction (NWP) data. The DA techniques were directly validated showing a clear improvement of the MPP output quality in comparison with meteorological measurement data. In the current paper it is demonstrated that the application of DA procedures in the MPP, to combine meteorological measurements with NWP data, has a noticeable positive effect on the performance of an atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) driven by the MPP output. This result is particularly important for emergency response systems used for accidental releases of pollutants, because it provides the possibility to combine meteorological measurements with NWP data in order to achieve more reliable dispersion predictions. This is also an indirect way to validate the DA procedures applied in the MPP. The above goal is achieved by applying the Lagrangian ADM DIPCOT driven by meteorological data calculated by the MPP code both with and without the use of DA procedures to simulate the first European tracer experiment (ETEX I). The performance of the ADM in each case was evaluated by comparing the predicted and the experimental concentrations with the use of statistical indices and concentration plots. The comparison of resulting concentrations using the different sets of meteorological data showed that the activation of DA in the MPP code clearly improves the performance of dispersion calculations in terms of plume shape and dimensions, location of maximum concentrations, statistical indices and time variation of concentration at the detectors locations.     

Validation of the operational emergency response model at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute using data from etex and the chernobyl accident

The Eulerian atmospheric tracer transport model MATCH (Multiscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry model) has been extended with a Lagrangian particle model treating the initial dispersion of pollutants from point sources. The model has been implemented at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in an emergency response system for nuclear accidents and can be activated on short notice to provide forecast concentration and deposition fields.The model has been used to simulate the transport of the inert tracer released during the ETEX experiment and the transport and deposition of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident. Visual inspection of the results as well as statistical analysis shows that the extent, time of arrival and duration of the tracer cloud, is in good agreement with the observations for both cases, with a tendency towards over-prediction for the first ETEX release. For the Chernobyl case the simulated deposition pattern over Scandinavia and over Europe as a whole agrees with observations when observed precipitation is used in the simulation. When model calculated precipitation is used, the quality of the simulation is reduced significantly and the model fails to predict major features of the observed deposition field.     

Experimental verification for real-time environmental emergency response system: WSPEEDI by European tracer experiment

Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute has developed an emergency response system WSPEEDI to forecast long-range atmospheric dispersions of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere. The latest version of WSPEEDI consists of an atmospheric dynamic model MM5 for calculating meteorological fields and a particle random-walk model for atmospheric dispersion. The performance of WSPEEDI was evaluated by data obtained from a field tracer experiment over Europe (ETEX) in this paper. The model validation was done with respect to the following points: (1) the dependence of model accuracy on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the meteorological fields and (2) the superiority of an atmospheric dynamic model over a mass-consistent wind model. Regarding (1), it was shown that the calculation accuracy of the new version with high temporal resolution was improved, especially at the edge of the plume. Moreover, although the increase in horizontal spatial resolution of the old version had no substantial effect on the model performance, increase in horizontal resolution of the new version contributed to the significant improvement of the calculation accuracy. These results showed that the dynamically calculated meteorological field with the spatial resolution of the meso-β–γ scale greatly improved calculation accuracy.     

On the importance of the meteorological coupling interval in dispersion modeling during ETEX-1

Traditionally, transport and dispersion models are offline coupled to meteorological drivers, receiving pre-processed output at regular coupling intervals. However, today meteorological models have reached urban and cloud resolving scales and online models integrating meteorological and dispersion models have been developed. In this study the online coupled model, Enviro-HIRLAM, which can also run in offline mode, was used to compare online and offline representations of meso-scale disturbances. The online model was evaluated using data from the first European Tracer Experiment (ETEX-1) and produced satisfactory results. Meso-scale influences during the simulation pertube the plume during long-range transport, leading to a double peak structure at a specific measurement station. The meso-scale influence was investigated by varying the offline coupling interval which was shown to be important in constraining the influence of meso-scale disturbances on plume structure in coarse resolution.     

Evaluation of the Meteo-France response in ETEX release 1

During ETEX Meteo-France applied part of its emergency response system for critical events developped in the framework of the World Meteorological Organization environmental emergency response program. The atmospheric transport model used to forecast the evolution of a passive tracer is an eulerian model called MEDIA. In real time this model is driven by meteorological data from ARPEGE, the operational numerical weather prediction model available at the Meteo-France operation center. The overall evaluation of the results show that the model can reproduce the cloud displacement, but there exists a stretching in the transport direction. In the ATMES-II phase, the results are closer to the observations when meteorological data from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast are used. A simulation using analyzed meteorological data from ARPEGE every 6 h slightly improve the results comparing with the real-time experiment. All the simulations we performed reveal that the quality of the atmospheric transport model is strongly dependent on the quality of the driving numerical weather prediction model.     

Evaluation of trajectories calculated from ecmwf data against constant volume balloon flights during etex

This paper validates trajectories calculated from ECMWF analyses against the tracks of constant volume balloons (CVBs) released during the European tracer experiment (ETEX). The altitudes of the calculated trajectories were adjusted to the altitudes of the respective balloons in short intervals to allow direct comparisons. The agreement between the calculated trajectories and the balloon tracks was very good for the first experiment (individual errors from 1 to 26%, average 15%), and excellent (errors from 2 to 11%, average 6%) for the second one. The agreement for the second experiment was probably partly better because the CVBs travelled above the planetary boundary layer, but the small errors also indicate that the ECMWF fields of the horizontal wind were of exceptionally good quality in the second experiment. This is in sharp contrast to the results of the dispersion models which all failed in the prediction of the perfluorocarbon tracer dispersion for the second experiment. A likely explanation for this is that vertical motions, possibly on small scales, were not correctly captured by the ECMWF analyses, but it is not possible to clarify this with the CVB data.     

Testing the importance of accurate meteorological input fields and parameterizations in atmospheric transport modelling using dream - validation against ETEX-1

A tracer model, the DREAM, which is based on a combination of a near-range Lagrangian model and a long-range Eulerian model, has been developed. The meteorological meso-scale model, MM5V1, is implemented as a meteorological driver for the tracer model. The model system is used for studying transport and dispersion of air pollutants caused by a single but strong source as, e.g. an accidental release from a nuclear power plant. The model system including the coupling of the Lagrangian model with the Eulerian model are described. Various simple and comprehensive parameterizations of the mixing height, the vertical dispersion, and different meterological input data have been implemented in the combined tracer model, and the model results have been validated against measurements from the ETEX-1 release. Several different statistical parameters have been used to estimate the differences between the parameterizations and meterological input data in order to find the best performing solution.     

Validation of the UK Met. Office’s name model against the ETEX dataset

The ETEX 1 data set has been used to assess the performance of the UK Met Office’s long-range dispersion model NAME. In terms of emergency response modelling the model performed well, successfully predicting the overall spread and timing of the plume across Europe. However, in common with most other models, NAME overpredicted the observed concentrations. This is in contrast with other NAME validation studies which indicate either no significant bias or a tendency to underpredict concentrations. This suggests the reasons for overpredicting are specific to the ETEX situation. Explanations include inadequate vertical diffusion or transport, possible venting by convective activity, and experimental errors. An assessment of a range of advection schemes of varying complexity indicated no clear advantage, at present, in using more sophisticated random walk techniques at long range, a simple diffusion coefficient based scheme providing some of the best results. A brief look is also taken at a simulation of the more problematical ETEX 2 release.     

Modeling the ETEX plume dispersion with the Canadian emergency response model

The CANadian Emergency Response Model (CANERM) was used to simulate the dispersion resulting from the ETEX release of 23 October 1994. Dispersion simulations were done using three different data sets as meteorological input: the ECMWF/ETEX Data Set, data from the CMC Global Data Assimilation System, and results from a diagnostic execution of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model. Comparisons of the dispersion simulations are made with observed surface concentration data provided by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. It is found that CANERM can simulate fairly well the main features of the cloud dispersion. The spatial and temporal evolution of the simulated cloud appear quite plausible, but a tendency to overestimate surface concentrations is apparent. The simulations provide a credible explanation for the two peaks observed at station NL01; the first peak appears to be associated with the passage of the head portion of the plume, while the second seems to be associated with the tail part. Verification scores indicate that the simulations using the ECMWF/ETEX data set and CMC global data are of equivalent quality. However, the simulations obtained using the GEM diagnostic fields are significantly better.     

Norwegian Meteorological Institute’s real-time dispersion model snap (Severe Nuclear Accident Program): Runs for ETEX and ATMES II experiments with different meteorological input

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) has developed and implemented for operational use a real-time dispersion model Severe Nuclear Accident Program (SNAP) with capability for predicting concentrations and depositions of the radioactive debris from large accidental releases. SNAP has been closely linked to DNMI’s operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.How good are these predictions? Participation in ETEX has partly answered this question. DNMI used SNAP with LAM50S giving meteorological input for these real-time dispersion calculations. LAM50S Limited Area Model with 50 km grid squareswas DNMI’s operational NWP model in 1994 when ETEX took place.In this article we report on how SNAP performed in the first of the ETEX releases in near-real-time mode, using LAM50S—and in hindcast mode for ATMES II, using “ECMWF 1995: ETEX Data set (ATMES II)”as meteorological input data. These two input data sets came from NWP models with quite different characteristics but with similar resolution in time and space.The results from these dispersion simulations matched closely. Deviations early in the simulation period shrank to insignificant differences later on. Since both input data sets were based on “weather analysis” and had similar resolution in space and time, SNAP described the dispersion of the released material very similar in these two simulations.     

Evaluating the use of outputs from comprehensive meteorological models in air quality modeling applications

Currently used dispersion models, such as the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD), process routinely available meteorological observations to construct model inputs. Thus, model estimates of concentrations depend on the availability and quality of meteorological observations, as well as the specification of surface characteristics at the observing site. We can be less reliant on these meteorological observations by using outputs from prognostic models, which are routinely run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The forecast fields are available daily over a grid system that covers all of the United States. These model outputs can be readily accessed and used for dispersion applications to construct model inputs with little processing. This study examines the usefulness of these outputs through the relative performance of a dispersion model that has input requirements similar to those of AERMOD. The dispersion model was used to simulate observed tracer concentrations from a Tracer Field Study conducted in Wilmington, California in 2004 using four different sources of inputs: (1) onsite measurements; (2) National Weather Service measurements from a nearby airport; (3) readily available forecast model outputs from the Eta Model; and (4) readily available and more spatially resolved forecast model outputs from the MM5 prognostic model. The comparison of the results from these simulations indicate that comprehensive models, such as MM5 and Eta, have the potential of providing adequate meteorological inputs for currently used short-range dispersion models such as AERMOD.     

Atmospheric Tracer Techniques and Gas Transport in the Primary Aluminum Industry

The results of 35 Individual SF₆ tracer tests conducted in Norway during 1978 demonstrate the applicability of tracer techniques to the study of a wide variety of pollutant transport problems found in the primary aluminum industry. Tracer methods were employed to determine the efficiency of the pollutant control system over a single reduction cell under a variety of operating conditions. Two tests conducted during normal operation gave efficiencies equal to 100 ±19% and 79 ± 12%, while a test performed during the occurrence of an anode effect yielded an efficiency equal to 66 ± 22%.

Tracer investigations of flow in the wake of a smelter hall indicated that between 1 % and 11 % of secondary, roof-top emissions can become entrained in the recirculation cavity and reenter the hall through the ventilation fresh air supply. These reentry rates were observed for release heights as high as 8 m above the existing roof exhaust duct. Tracer dispersion data collected within 20 building heights of the smelter agreed very well with extrapolations of McEIroy- Pooler dispersion curves for an urban area. Dispersion curves determined from a previous wind tunnel study of flow downwind of an isolated building underestimated dispersion downwind of the vs.melter complex.

The total fluoride mass flow rate measured downwind of a smelter during wet, foggy conditions indicated that wet removal rates of fluorides are in the range 3.2 × 10^?4/s to 6.4 × 10^?4/s. Simulation of the source with several tracer point releases and simultaneous measurement of fluoride and tracer ground-level concentrations downwind of the smelter eliminated the need for measurements of vertical profiles of wind speed and fluoride concentration during the experiment.