Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.     

Managing climate change impacts to enhance the resilience and sustainability of Fennoscandian forests

Projected warming in Sweden and other Fennoscandian countries will probably increase growth rates of forest trees near their northern limits, increase the probability of new pest outbreaks, and foster northerly migration of both native and exotic species. The greatest challenges for sustainable forestry are to restore and enhance the ecological and socioeconomic diversity of intensively managed forested landscapes. With appropriate management, climate warming may facilitate the regeneration of this diversity. Experimental transplant gardens along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients and high-resolution maps of expected future climate could provide a scientific basis for predicting the climate response of potential migrant species. Management of corridors and assisted migration could speed the movement of appropriate species.     

Frontiers of change: the reasons behind land-use change in the Mekong Basin

Land-use change processes are commonly understood as simplified cause-effect relationships, which, in turn, support many environment-development policies. This paper uses wide-ranging evidence from a number of global case studies to challenge some of the prevailing "myths" around land-use change in the Mekong Basin and supports the conclusion that the simple explanations found in population growth, poverty, and infrastructure studies rarely provide an adequate understanding of land-use change.     

Improving dialogue among researchers,local and indigenous peoples and decision-makers to address issues of climate change in the North

Ambio - The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic...     

Nexus on climate change: agriculture and possible solution to cope future climate change stresses

The changing climate scenarios harshen the biotic stresses including boosting up the population of insect/pest and disease, uplifting weed growth, declining soil beneficial microbes, threaten pollinator, and boosting up abiotic stresses including harsh drought/waterlogging, extremisms in temperature, salinity/alkalinity, abrupt rainfall pattern)) and ulitamtely  affect the plant in multiple ways. This nexus review paper will cover four significant points viz (1) the possible impacts of climate change; as the world already facing the problem of food security, in such crucial period, climatic change severely affects all four dimensions of food security (from production to consumption) and will lead to malnutrition/malnourishment faced by low-income peoples. (2) How some major crops (wheat, cotton, rice, maize, and sugarcane) are affected by stress and their consequent loss. (3) How to develop a strategic work to limit crucial factors, like their significant role in climate-smart breeding, developing resilience to stresses, and idiotypic breeding. Additionally, there is an essence of improving food security, as much of our food is wasted before consumption for instance post-harvest losses. (4) Role of biotechnology and genetic engineering in adaptive introgression of the gene or developing plant transgenic against pests. As millions of dollars are invested in innovation and research to cope with future climate change stresses on a plant, hence community base adaptation of innovation is also considered an important factor in crop improvements. Because of such crucial predictions about the future impacts of climate change on agriculture, we must adopt measures to evolve crop.

     

Correction to: Knowledge domain and emerging trends of carbon footprint in the field of climate change and energy use: a bibliometric analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

Groundwater-surface water interactions in the hyporheic zone under climate change scenarios

Slight changes in climate, such as the rise of temperature or alterations of precipitation and evaporation, will dramatically influence nearly all freshwater and climate-related hydrological behavior on a global scale. The hyporheic zone (HZ), where groundwater (GW) and surface waters (SW) interact, is characterized by permeable sediments, low flow velocities, and gradients of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics along the exchange flows. Hyporheic metabolism, that is biogeochemical reactions within the HZ as well as various processes that exchange substances and energy with adjoining systems, is correlated with hyporheic organisms, habitats, and the organic matter (OM) supplied from GW and SW, which will inevitably be influenced by climate-related variations. The characteristics of the HZ in acting as a transition zone and in filtering and purifying exchanged water will be lost, resulting in a weakening of the self-purification capacity of natural water bodies. Thus, as human disturbances intensify in the future, GW and SW pollution will become a greater challenge for mankind than ever before. Biogeochemical processes in the HZ may favor the release of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and methane (CH₄) under climate change scenarios. Future water resource management should consider the integrity of aquatic systems as a whole, including the HZ, rather than independently focusing on SW and GW.     

Knowledge domain and emerging trends of carbon footprint in the field of climate change and energy use: a bibliometric analysis

Carbon footprint (CF) research has attained tremendous popularity for improving the climate environment purposes. In particular, current energy use has been identified as the main cause of climate change. CF plays an irreplaceable role in managing energy use, reducing gas emissions, and improving climate change. The objective of this study was to review studies that have developed CF and to perform a bibliometric analysis using two key terms: “climate change” and “energy use”. From bibliometric analysis using CiteSpace and VOSviewer, it was possible to establish a knowledge map of cooperative network structure and research evolution. We are aiming to reveal the main logical chain of CF research leading to climate change, to make up for the lack of current literature, and provide research inspiration for researchers. The research findings mainly focus on four aspects. First, the relevant research began in 2008 and is in a state of continuous rise. Second, due to the law of research development and the prominence of practical problems, related research has experienced a stage from conceptual methods to specific problems. Third, China and the USA assume an important role in which international cooperation is the overall trend. Fourth, related research can be divided into CF algorithm research, ecological environment management research, and specific cross-industry fields. In addition, possible opportunities for change in related research are explored. It is also suggested that the integration of CF with other footprints, when energy use and environmental change are fully considered, may become an important future research trend by providing a more comprehensive environmental impact.

     

Quantifying flexibility in combating climate change: modelling the implications of flexibility mechanisms in the climate change negotiations

With the 'International Trading of Emission Allowances' (ITEA) model, we have analysed the flexibility mechanisms provided for in the Kyoto Protocol. Three main mechanisms of flexibility are analysed differentiation of initial commitments, multiple sources, and locational flexibility (trading). A differentiation of commitments could help the evolution of commitments, especially with a trading regime, which could create some income. Multiple sources give a large pool of cheaper abatement options from the non-CO₂ gases, and costs are reduced substantially. Finally, a trading regime would make available even more cheap abatement options, mainly in the economies in transition (EITs). This regime would provide income support for the EITs, helping them to speed up their transition. The combined mechanisms reduce dramatically the costs for the compliance with the protocol for the whole of Annex I; they fall to zero in some cases. Two other main findings deal with the EU and the EITs. Internal trading would ease the debate on the internal distribution of commitments within the EU under the bubble provision, reducing costs significantly. The allocations in the protocol for the EITs probably create a huge excess - 'hot air' - which could seriously harm the agreement if it is not dealt with. Excluding the hot air will increase costs for the quota importers, and it will also slightly reduce income for the relevant EITs, but this is offset by a rising price, which also benefits other EITs.     

Source and release mechanism of arsenic in aquifers of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

In order to elucidate the arsenic source and its release mechanism into groundwater in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, groundwater samples were collected from wells at different depths (20 to 440 m) and core samples (from 20 to 265 m depth) were analyzed. Based on the analytical results for groundwater and core samples, the As source in groundwater is considered to be pyrite (FeS(2)) in acid sulfate soil (ASS) under oxidizing conditions and hydrous ferric oxide (Fe(OH)(3)) under reducing conditions. Geochemical modeling demonstrated that As(III) is the dominant species and the presence of As-bearing sulfides, Fe-bearing sulfides and oxides phases may locally act as potential sinks for As. From variation between Fe and As concentrations in groundwater samples, the release mechanism of As is: dissolution of Fe(OH)(3) containing As under reducing conditions and oxidative decomposition of FeS(2) containing As under oxidizing conditions.     

Invasive alien plant species dynamics in the Himalayan region under climate change

Climate change will impact the dynamics of invasive alien plant species (IAPS). However, the ability of IAPS under changing climate to invade mountain ecosystems, particularly the Himalayan region, is less known. This study investigates the current and future habitat of five IAPS of the Himalayan region using MaxEnt and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Two invasive species, Ageratum conyzoides and Parthenium hysterophorus, will lose overall suitable area by 2070, while Ageratina adenophora, Chromolaena odorata and Lantana camara will gain suitable areas and all of them will retain most of the current habitat as stable. The southern Himalayan foothills will mostly conserve species ecological niches, while suitability of all the five species will decrease with increasing elevation. Such invasion dynamics in the Himalayan region could have impacts on numerous ecosystems and their biota, ecosystem services and human well-being. Trans-boundary response strategies suitable to the local context of the region could buffer some of the likely invasion impacts.     

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.     

Forests under climate change and air pollution: gaps in understanding and future directions for research

Forests in Europe face significant changes in climate, which in interaction with air quality changes, may significantly affect forest productivity, stand composition and carbon sequestration in both vegetation and soils. Identified knowledge gaps and research needs include: (i) interaction between changes in air quality (trace gas concentrations), climate and other site factors on forest ecosystem response, (ii) significance of biotic processes in system response, (iii) tools for mechanistic and diagnostic understanding and upscaling, and (iv) the need for unifying modelling and empirical research for synthesis. This position paper highlights the above focuses, including the global dimension of air pollution as part of climate change and the need for knowledge transfer to enable reliable risk assessment. A new type of research site in forest ecosystems ("supersites") will be conducive to addressing these gaps by enabling integration of experimentation and modelling within the soil-plant-atmosphere interface, as well as further model development.     

Bioconcentration and half-life of quinalphos pesticide in rice-fish integration system in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

In order to determine the distribution and enable the elimination of quinalphos, a popular active pesticide compound used in the Mekong Delta, an experiment was set up in a rice-fish integration system in Can Tho City, Vietnam. Fish was stocked into the field when the rice was two-months old. Quinalphos was applied twice in doses of 42.5 g per 1000 m². Water, fish and sediment samples were collected at time intervals and analyzed by a Gas Chromatography Electron Capture Detector system. The results show that quinalphos residues in fish muscles were much higher than those of the water and the bioconcentration factor (logBCF) was above 2 for the fish. The half-life of first and second quinalphos applications were 12.2 and 11.1 days for sediment, 2.5 and 1.1 days for silver barb, 1.9 and 1.3 days for common carp, and 1.1 and 1.0 days for water, respectively.     

Urbanisation-driven land degradation and socioeconomic challenges in peri-urban areas: Insights from Southern Europe

Climate change and landscape transformation have led to rapid expansion of peri-urban areas globally, representing new ‘laboratories’ for the study of human–nature relationships aiming at land degradation management. This paper contributes to the debate on human-driven land degradation processes by highlighting how natural and socioeconomic forces trigger soil depletion and environmental degradation in peri-urban areas. The aim was to classify and synthesise the interactions of urbanisation-driven factors with direct or indirect, on-site or off-site, and short-term or century-scale impacts on land degradation, focussing on Southern Europe as a paradigmatic case to address this issue. Assuming complex and multifaceted interactions among influencing factors, a relevant contribution to land degradation was shown to derive from socioeconomic drivers, the most important of which were population growth and urban sprawl. Viewing peri-urban areas as socio-environmental systems adapting to intense socioeconomic transformations, these factors were identified as forming complex environmental ‘syndromes’ driven by urbanisation. Based on this classification, we suggested three key measures to support future land management in Southern European peri-urban areas.     

Screening variability and change of soil moisture under wide-ranging climate conditions: Snow dynamics effects

Soil moisture influences and is influenced by water, climate, and ecosystem conditions, affecting associated ecosystem services in the landscape. This paper couples snow storage-melting dynamics with an analytical modeling approach to screening basin-scale, long-term soil moisture variability and change in a changing climate. This coupling enables assessment of both spatial differences and temporal changes across a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. Model application is exemplified for two major Swedish hydrological basins, Norrström and Piteälven. These are located along a steep temperature gradient and have experienced different hydro-climatic changes over the time period of study, 1950–2009. Spatially, average intra-annual variability of soil moisture differs considerably between the basins due to their temperature-related differences in snow dynamics. With regard to temporal change, the long-term average state and intra-annual variability of soil moisture have not changed much, while inter-annual variability has changed considerably in response to hydro-climatic changes experienced so far in each basin.     

Social and ecological responses to climate change: towards an integrative understanding

A literature review and a survey of professionals whose work deals with climate change indicate that more is known and considered certain by the natural science community concerning responses of natural systems to climate change. There is less of a consensus among social scientists that social systems are directly responding to climate change. The emphasis in the literature on policy and mitigation is corroborated by the survey results, which revealed only social variables that are tightly linked to climate or natural systems. Identifying variables of both natural and social systems that respond to climate change is imperative for a better understanding of the implications of climate change.