Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.     

Legal prerequisites for ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea area: The example of eutrophication

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role of law in the management of the Baltic Sea, with focus on eutrophication. It aims to identify legal instruments or structures realizing an ecosystem approach. This also includes a discussion of the prerequisites of law as contributor to ecosystem-based management (EBM), as well as evaluation of current legal instruments. While ecosystem approach to environmental management is central to contemporary environmental management policy, it is still unclear what such an approach entails in concrete legal terms. The scope of the analysis stretches from international and EU legal regimes, to implementation and regulation within the national legal systems. A conclusion is that the management structures need further development to properly realize EBM, for example, through concretization of management measures, and clarification of duties and responsibilities for their realization.     

When Ecosystem Services Crash: Preparing for Big,Fast, Patchy Climate Change

Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.     

An ecologically relevant exposure assessment for a polluted river using an integrated multivariate PLS approach

A case study is presented where an integrated, ecologically relevant exposure assessment is presented for a polluted lowland river. Using partial least squares regression of latent structures (PLS), an analysis of the impact of two effluents on physico-chemical water quality measures, macroinvertebrate and diatom communities, and in situ bioassay responses with four different test species are combined into an integrative exposure assessment. Bioassays focussed on growth and condition related endpoints, because they are key functional processes of organisms and populations. Integrating these multiple lines of evidence, we were able to discriminate among the impact of both effluents, link changes in physico-chemical water quality with bioassay endpoints and ecological quality of the ecosystem, and address the importance of integrating all information into one exposure assessment framework. The bioassays under field conditions indicated that most endpoints measured are a reflection of ecological effects rather than pollution related effects, or at least a combination of both ecological and toxicological effects. Factors such as food availability clearly influenced the outcome of in situ bioassays and ecological information was essential to explain observed discrepancies when trying to extrapolate bioassay results from the laboratory to the field.     

Trends in Ecosystem Service Research: Early Steps and Current Drivers

Over the past 50 years, human beings have influenced ecosystems more rapidly than at any similar time in human history, drastically altering ecosystem functioning. Along with ecosystem transformation and degradation, a number of studies have addressed the functioning, assessment and management of ecosystems. The concept of ecosystem services has been developed in the scientific literature since the end of the 1970s. However, ecosystem service research has focused on certain service categories, ecosystem types, and geographical areas, while substantial knowledge gaps remain concerning several aspects. We assess the development and current status of ecosystem service research on the basis of publications collected from the Web of Science. The material consists of (1) articles (n = 353) from all the years included in the Web of Science down to the completion of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and (2) more recent articles (n = 687) published between 2006 and 2008. We also assess the importance of international processes, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Kyoto Protocol and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, as drivers of ecosystem service research. Finally, we identify future prospects and research needs concerning the assessment and management of ecosystem services.     

A fuzzy logic expert system for evaluating policy progress towards sustainability goals

Evaluating progress towards environmental sustainability goals can be difficult due to a lack of measurable benchmarks and insufficient or uncertain data. Marine settings are particularly challenging, as stakeholders and objectives tend to be less well defined and ecosystem components have high natural variability and are difficult to observe directly. Fuzzy logic expert systems are useful analytical frameworks to evaluate such systems, and we develop such a model here to formally evaluate progress towards sustainability targets based on diverse sets of indicators. Evaluation criteria include recent (since policy enactment) and historical (from earliest known state) change, type of indicators (state, benefit, pressure, response), time span and spatial scope, and the suitability of an indicator in reflecting progress toward a specific objective. A key aspect of the framework is that all assumptions are transparent and modifiable to fit different social and ecological contexts. We test the method by evaluating progress towards four Aichi Biodiversity Targets in Canadian oceans, including quantitative progress scores, information gaps, and the sensitivity of results to model and data assumptions. For Canadian marine systems, national protection plans and biodiversity awareness show good progress, but species and ecosystem states overall do not show strong improvement. Well-defined goals are vital for successful policy implementation, as ambiguity allows for conflicting potential indicators, which in natural systems increases uncertainty in progress evaluations. Importantly, our framework can be easily adapted to assess progress towards policy goals with different themes, globally or in specific regions.     

Balancing ecosystem function,services and disservices resulting from expanding goose populations

As goose populations increase in abundance, their influence on ecological processes is increasing. We review the evidence for key ecological functions of wild goose populations in Eurasia and North America, including aquatic invertebrate and plant propagule transport, nutrient deposition in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the influence of goose populations on vegetation biomass, carbon storage and methane emission, species diversity and disease transmission. To estimate the implications of their growing abundance for humans, we explore how these functions contribute to the provision of ecosystem services and disservices. We assess the weight, extent and trends among such impacts, as well as the balance of their value to society. We examine key unresolved issues to enable a more balanced assessment of the economic costs or benefits of migratory geese along their flyways, including the spatial and temporal variation in services and their contrasting value to different user groups. Many ecological functions of geese are concluded to provide neither services nor disservices and, ecosystem disservices currently appear to outweigh services, although this varies between regions. We consider an improved quantification of ecosystem services and disservices, and how these vary along population flyways with respect to variation in valuing certain cultural services, and under different management scenarios aimed at reducing their disservices, essential for a more balanced management of goose populations.     

Connecting Marine Ecosystem Services to Human Well-being: Insights from Participatory Well-being Assessment in Kenya

The linkage between ecosystems and human well-being is a focus of the conceptualization of “ecosystem services” as promoted by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. However, the actual nature of connections between ecosystems and the well-being of individuals remains complex and poorly understood. We conducted a series of qualitative focus groups with five different stakeholder groups connected to a small-scale Kenyan coastal fishery to understand (1) how well-being is understood within the community, and what is important for well-being, (2) how people’s well-being has been affected by changes over the recent past, and (3) people’s hopes and aspirations for their future fishery. Our results show that people conceive well-being in a diversity of ways, but that these can clearly map onto the MA framework. In particular, our research unpacks the “freedoms and choices” element of the framework and argues for greater recognition of these aspects of well-being in fisheries management in Kenya through, for example, more participatory governance processes.     

Temporal and spatial variations in the relationship between urbanization and water quality

With the development of economy, most of Chinese cities are at the stage of rapid urbanization in recent years, which has caused many environmental problems, especially the serious deterioration of water quality. Therefore, the research of the relationship between urbanization and water quality has important theoretical and practical significance, and it is also the main restriction factor in the urbanization advancement. In this work, we investigated the impact of urbanization on the water quality of the nearby river. We established a comprehensive environmental assessment framework by combining urbanization and water quality, and one model was designed to examine the impact of urbanization on the water quality in Jinan from 2001 to 2010 with factor component analysis. The assessment of urbanization level was accomplished using a comprehensive index system, which was based on four aspects: demographic urbanization, economic urbanization, land urbanization, and social urbanization. In addition, synthetic pollution index method was utilized to assess the water pollution of Xiaoqing River in the study area. Through the analysis of regression curves, we conclude that (1) when the urbanization level is below 25 %, the relationship is low and irregular; (2) if the urbanization level varies between 25 and 40 %, there will be an irreversible degradation of stream water quality; (3) there is a positive correlation between urbanization and pollution levels of urban river after the adjustment period; and (4) land and demographic aspects have the highest independent contribution. This study is a useful reference for policymakers in terms of economic and environmental management.     

Governance of Water Resources in the Phase of Change: A Case Study of the Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive in Sweden

In this article, focusing on the ongoing implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive, we analyze some of the opportunities and challenges for a sustainable governance of water resources from an ecosystem management perspective. In the face of uncertainty and change, the ecosystem approach as a holistic and integrated management framework is increasingly recognized. The ongoing implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) could be viewed as a reorganization phase in the process of change in institutional arrangements and ecosystems. In this case study from the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District, Sweden, we focus in particular on data and information management from a multi-level governance perspective from the local stakeholder to the River Basin level. We apply a document analysis, hydrological mapping, and GIS models to analyze some of the institutional framework created for the implementation of the WFD. The study underlines the importance of institutional arrangements that can handle variability of local situations and trade-offs between solutions and priorities on different hierarchical levels.     

生态系统健康研究综述与展望

生态系统健康是新兴的生态系统管理学概念,是环境管理和生态系统管理的目标.在调研文献的基础上阐述了生态系统健康概念的产生、发展及内涵,分析了不同尺度下的评价指标体系,着重回顾和讨论了生态系统健康的评价方法及其存在的问题,以期为生态系统管理提供理论基础.     

A multi-criteria sustainability assessment framework: development and application in comparing two food waste management options using a UK region as a case study

Preventing food wastage is a key element of sustainable resource management. But as food waste is still generated at high volumes, priority is placed on its proper management as a resource, maximising sustainability benefits. This study, by integrating a multi-criteria decision analysis with a sustainability assessment approach, develops a screening and decision support framework for comparing the sustainability performance of food waste management options. A structured process for selecting criteria based on the consideration of environmental, economic and social aspects related to region-specific food waste system planning, policy and management has been developed. Two food waste management options, namely the use of food waste disposal units, which grind food waste at the household’s kitchen sink and discharge it to the sewer, and the anaerobic co-digestion of separately collected food waste with sewage sludge, were selected for comparison due to their potential to create synergies between local authorities, waste and water companies, with local circumstances determining which of the two options to adopt. A simplified process used for assessing and comparing the two food waste management options in the Anglian region in the UK, indicated that there are benefits in using the framework as a screening tool for identifying which option may be the most sustainable. To support decision-making, a detailed analysis that incorporates stakeholders’ perspectives is required. An additional use of the framework can be in providing recommendations for optimising food waste management options in a specific region, maximising their sustainability performance.     

Focusing Ecological Research for Conservation

Ecologists are increasingly actively involved in conservation. We identify five key topics from a broad sweep of ecology that merit research attention to meet conservation needs. We examine questions from landscape ecology, behavioral ecology, ecosystem dynamics, community ecology, and nutrient cycling related to key topics. Based on literature review and publication trend assessment, consultation with colleagues, and roundtable discussions at the 24th International Congress for Conservation Biology, focused research on the following topics could benefit conservation while advancing ecological understanding: 1. Carbon sequestration, requiring increased linkages to biodiversity conservation; 2. Ecological invasiveness, challenging our ability to find solutions to ecological aliens; 3. Individual variation, having applications in the conservation of rare species; 4. Movement of organisms, integrating ecological processes across landscapes and scales and addressing habitat fragmentation; and 5. Trophic-level interactions, driving ecological dynamics at the ecosystem-level. Addressing these will require cross-disciplinary research under the overarching framework of conservation ecology.     

Organizing For Risk Oriented Climate Alteration Research

The ubiquity in effects and complexity of modern environmental issues requires careful consideration of focused research to insure that answers to key policy oriented questions are obtained. Broad-based, unstructured research programs have proven to be inefficient instruments for characterizing risks from environmental stress. Both the expense and the importance of timeliness of information preclude a traditional “bottom-up” approach to research. Instead, a more “top-down” organized approach that links the natural and socioeconomic sciences has advantages to support environmental risk assessment and research prioritization of climate alteration. Early examples of analysis using an integrating framework for risk assessment focus on the need for research on human interactions and the environmental damage function in addition to the basic earth sciences. Nonlinearities in environmental impact of climate change, and uncertainties in the extent of growth of energy efficiencies, are seen to be key unknowns in the risk assessment of climate alternatives. To date, earth science research has not been structured well for environmental risk assessment of the climate change question. The U.S. national research program aimed at risk assessment of climate alteration is examined as an example. The examination suggests that the present conceptual plan falls short of an optimum structure derived from exploitation of an integrating framework, even though it is rich in scientific strength and diversity. To strengthen its public value and accessibility, the research program could account in its planning for prioritized needs defined by an integrating analysis for risk assessment and management.     

Opportunities for Increasing Resilience and Sustainability of Urban Social–Ecological Systems: Insights from the URBES and the Cities and Biodiversity Outlook Projects

Urban futures that are more resilient and sustainable require an integrated social–ecological system approach to urban policymaking, planning, management, and governance. In this article, we introduce the Urban Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (URBES) and the Cities and Biodiversity Outlook (CBO) Projects as new social–ecological contributions to research and practice on emerging urban resilience and ecosystem services. We provide an overview of the projects and present global urbanization trends and their effects on ecosystems and biodiversity, as a context for new knowledge generated in the URBES case-study cities, including Berlin, New York, Rotterdam, Barcelona, and Stockholm. The cities represent contrasting urbanization trends and examples of emerging science–policy linkages for improving urban landscapes for human health and well-being. In addition, we highlight 10 key messages of the global CBO assessment as a knowledge platform for urban leaders to incorporate state-of-the-art science on URBES into decision-making for sustainable and resilient urban development.     

Development of a Concept for Non-monetary Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Services at the Site Level

Determining the performance of ecosystem services at the city or regional level cannot accurately take into account the fine differences between green or gray structures. The supply of regulating ecosystem services in, for instance, parks can differ as parks vary in their land cover composition. A comprehensive ecosystem service assessment approach also needs to reflect land use to consider the demands placed on ecosystem services, which are mostly neglected by current research yet important for urban planning. For instance, if a sealed surface is no longer used, it could be unsealed to improve ecosystem service supply. Because of these scientific shortcomings, this article argues for a conceptual framework for the non-monetary assessment of urban ecosystem services at the site scale. This paper introduces a standardized method for selecting representative sites and evaluating their supply of and demand on ecosystem services. The conceptual design is supplemented by examples of Salzburg, Austria.     

A framework for the social valuation of ecosystem services

Methods to assess ecosystem services using ecological or economic approaches are considerably better defined than methods for the social approach. To identify why the social approach remains unclear, we reviewed current trends in the literature. We found two main reasons: (i) the cultural ecosystem services are usually used to represent the whole social approach, and (ii) the economic valuation based on social preferences is typically included in the social approach. Next, we proposed a framework for the social valuation of ecosystem services that provides alternatives to economics methods, enables comparison across studies, and supports decision-making in land planning and management. The framework includes the agreements emerged from the review, such as considering spatial–temporal flows, including stakeholders from all social ranges, and using two complementary methods to value ecosystem services. Finally, we provided practical recommendations learned from the application of the proposed framework in a case study.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0555-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Implications: Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.     

Assessment of coastal ecosystems vulnerability to pollution: Algiers coast,Algeria

Coastal areas are frequently influenced by direct and/or indirect multiple anthropogenic pressures, which impacts marine life. Those perturbations may act in a heterogeneous way with a different intensity and are related to the complexity of coastal ecosystems. To visualize all these interactions at a local scale, a methodology inspired from many researches has been implemented in order to search, identify, and classify coastal ecosystems according to their sensitivity to anthropic pressure exerted by coastal cities. Thus, producing vulnerability maps will be essential tools to local coastal managers. We have applied this methodology on five coastal municipalities in Algiers. Firstly, the environmental sensitivity of coastal ecosystems was assessed by analyzing these four sub-indices: biological sensitivity, geomorphological sensitivity, hydrodynamic characteristics, and pollution intensity. Secondly, an assessment of the anthropogenic pressures presented by each municipality was carried out. Five sub-indexes have been taken into consideration when conducting this assessment: human activities, infrastructures, vectors of pollution, urbanization, and regulatory protection. Then, vulnerability maps were produced by the overlapping of sensitivity and anthropic pressure maps. The results assessed for the environmental vulnerability indicated that most areas are moderately to highly vulnerable, especially in the municipalities of Bab El Oued, Rais Hamidou, and Ain Bénian. The analysis of the obtained results shows the potential applicability of this methodology because they accurately reflect the reality. Therefore, these results can be useful to decision-makers by providing them with a relatively rational decision-making tool to prioritize future management and planning efforts.

     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.