Seafood from a changing Arctic

We review current knowledge about climate change impacts on Arctic seafood production. Large-scale changes in the Arctic marine food web can be expected for the next 40–100 years. Possible future trajectories under climate change for Arctic capture fisheries anticipate the movement of aquatic species into new waters and changed the dynamics of existing species. Negative consequences are expected for some fish stocks but others like the Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) may instead increase. Arctic aquaculture that constitutes about 2% of global farming is mainly made up of Norwegian salmon (Salmo salar) farming. The sector will face many challenges in a warmer future and some of these are already a reality impacting negatively on salmon growth. Other more indirect effects from climate change are more uncertain with respect to impacts on the economic conditions of Arctic aquaculture.     

Oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered Arctic marine waters: A review of recent developments and established practices

Renewed political and commercial interest in the resources of the Arctic, the reduction in the extent and thickness of sea ice, and the recent failings that led to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, have prompted industry and its regulatory agencies, governments, local communities and NGOs to look at all aspects of Arctic oil spill countermeasures with fresh eyes. This paper provides an overview of present oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered waters, as well as under potential future conditions driven by a changing climate. Though not an exhaustive review, we provide the key research results for oil spill response from knowledge accumulated over many decades, including significant review papers that have been prepared as well as results from recent laboratory tests, field programmes and modelling work. The three main areas covered by the review are as follows: oil weathering and modelling; oil detection and monitoring; and oil spill response techniques.     

Econometric modelling, estimation and policy analysis of oil spill processes

This paper explores approaches to model specification suitable for empirical investigation of a stochastic oil spill model. We focus on the effects of economic incentive measures on the frequency of oil spills, spill size, and volume of oil spilled. We look into the relationships between parameters that describe the spill generation process and the enforcement effort, using data for the Black and Baltic Seas.     

Climate change,future Arctic Sea ice,and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets

A significant share of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.     

Modelling Tundra Vegetation Response to Recent Arctic Warming

The Arctic land area has warmed by >1 °C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO₂ for 1980–2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.     

Biogeochemical consequences of a changing Arctic shelf seafloor ecosystem

Unprecedented and dramatic transformations are occurring in the Arctic in response to climate change, but academic, public, and political discourse has disproportionately focussed on the most visible and direct aspects of change, including sea ice melt, permafrost thaw, the fate of charismatic megafauna, and the expansion of fisheries. Such narratives disregard the importance of less visible and indirect processes and, in particular, miss the substantive contribution of the shelf seafloor in regulating nutrients and sequestering carbon. Here, we summarise the biogeochemical functioning of the Arctic shelf seafloor before considering how climate change and regional adjustments to human activities may alter its biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, including ecosystem function, carbon burial, or nutrient recycling. We highlight the importance of the Arctic benthic system in mitigating climatic and anthropogenic change and, with a focus on the Barents Sea, offer some observations and our perspectives on future management and policy.     

Adsorption of crude oil on arctic terrain

Arctic terrain was divided into three layers, moss, detritus and clay, and each layer was contacted with Norman Wells crude oil. Chromatographic analysis of the crude oil extracts of the terrain layers showed that the adsorption capacity of the terrain increased with increasing organic content. The higher molecular weight n-alkanes were adsorbed to a greater extent than lower n-alkanes on the moss and detritus layers. Of the aromatics, p-xylene was adsorbed to a greater extent than benzene on all three layers of the terrain. Retention of crude oil components on Arctic terrain in the event of an oil spill would be in accord with these findings.     

Future Distribution of Arctic Char <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis> in Sweden under Climate Change: Effects of Temperature,Lake Size and Species Interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961–1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95 % of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73 % of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

Modelling tundra vegetation response to recent arctic warming

The Arctic land area has warmed by > 1 °C in the last 30 years and there is evidence that this has led to increased productivity and stature of tundra vegetation and reduced albedo, effecting a positive (amplifying) feedback to climate warming. We applied an individual-based dynamic vegetation model over the Arctic forced by observed climate and atmospheric CO(2) for 1980-2006. Averaged over the study area, the model simulated increases in primary production and leaf area index, and an increasing representation of shrubs and trees in vegetation. The main underlying mechanism was a warming-driven increase in growing season length, enhancing the production of shrubs and trees to the detriment of shaded ground-level vegetation. The simulated vegetation changes were estimated to correspond to a 1.75 % decline in snow-season albedo. Implications for modelling future climate impacts on Arctic ecosystems and for the incorporation of biogeophysical feedback mechanisms in Arctic system models are discussed.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.     

Arctic Climate Tipping Points

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.     

Future distribution of Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus in Sweden under climate change: effects of temperature, lake size and species interactions

Novel communities will be formed as species with a variety of dispersal abilities and environmental tolerances respond individually to climate change. Thus, models projecting future species distributions must account for species interactions and differential dispersal abilities. We developed a species distribution model for Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus, a freshwater fish that is sensitive both to warm temperatures and to species interactions. A logistic regression model using lake area, mean annual air temperature (1961-1990), pike Esox lucius and brown trout Salmo trutta occurrence correctly classified 95?% of 467 Swedish lakes. We predicted that Arctic char will lose 73?% of its range in Sweden by 2100. Predicted extinctions could be attributed both to simulated temperature increases and to projected pike invasions. The Swedish mountains will continue to provide refugia for Arctic char in the future and should be the focus of conservation efforts for this highly valued fish.     

Simulation of interactions between migrating whales and potential oil spills

A numerical model system was developed to quantify the probability of endangered bowhead and gray whales encountering spilled oil in Alaskan waters. Migration and diving-surfacing models for bowhead and gray whales, and an oil spill trajectory model comprise the system. The migration models were developed from conceptual considerations, then calibrated with and tested against observations. The distribution of whales is represented in space and time by discrete points, each of which may represent one or more whales. The movement of a whale point is governed by a random walk algorithm which stochastically follows a migratory pathway. Stochastic diving-surfacing models are used to stimulate surfacing behavior sequences for each species. The oil spill model accounts for oil transport and spreading in open water and in the presence of sea ice. Historical wind records and ice cover data sets provide the environmental conditions to generate stochastic oil spill scenarios. The oil spill, whale migration and diving-surfacing models are linked to provide quantitative estimates of whale-oil interactions. The model system was applied to the Alaskan Beaufort Sea to investigate the probability that bowhead whales would encounter oil spilled in this region.     

Effects of bioturbation on the fate of oil in coastal sandy sediments--an in situ experiment

Effects of bioturbation by the common lugworm Arenicola marina on the fate of oil hydrocarbons (alkanes and PAHs) were studied in situ during a simulated oil spill in a shallow coastal area of Roskilde fjord, Denmark. The fate of selected oil compounds was monitored during 120 d using GC-MS and bioturbation activity (feces production and irrigation) was measured regularly during the experiment and used as input parameters in a mechanistic model describing the effects of A. marina on the transport and degradation of oil compounds in the sediment. The chemical analytical data and model results indicated that A. marina had profound and predictable effects on the distribution, degradation and preservation of oil and that the net effect depended on the initial distribution of oil. In sediment with an oil contaminated subsurface-layer A. marina buried the layer deeper in the sediment which clearly enhanced oil persistence. Conversely, A. marina stimulated both the physical removal and microbial degradation of oil compounds in uniformly oil contaminated sediments especially in deeper sediment layers (10-20 cm below the surface), whereas the fate of oil compounds deposited in surface layers (0-5 cm) mainly was affected by removal processes induced by wave actions and other bioturbating infauna such as Nereis diversicolor, Corophium volutator and Hydrobia spp. present in the experimental plots.     

Ambient air concentrations exceeded health-based standards for fine particulate matter and benzene during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is considered one of the largest marine oil spills in the history of the United States. Air emissions associated with the oil spill caused concern among residents of Southeast Louisiana. The purpose of this study was to assess ambient concentrations of benzene (n=3,887) and fine particulate matter (n=102,682) during the oil spill and to evaluate potential exposure disparities in the region. Benzene and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in the targeted parishes were generally higher following the oil spill, as expected. Benzene concentrations reached 2 to 19 times higher than background, and daily exceedances of PM2.5 were 10 to 45 times higher than background. Both benzene and PM2.5 concentrations were considered high enough to exceed public health criteria, with measurable exposure disparities in the coastal areas closer to the spill and clean-up activities. These findings raise questions about public disclosure of environmental health risks associated with the oil spill. The findings also provide a science-based rationale for establishing health-based action levels in future disasters.

Implications: Benzene and particulate matter monitoring during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill revealed that ambient air quality was a likely threat to public health and that residents in coastal Louisiana experienced significantly greater exposures than urban residents. Threshold air pollution levels established for the oil spill apparently were not used as a basis for informing the public about these potential health impacts. Also, despite carrying out the most comprehensive air monitoring ever conducted in the region, none of the agencies involved provided integrated analysis of the data or conclusive statements about public health risk. Better information about real-time risk is needed in future environmental disasters.     

Uncertainties and recommendations

An assessment of the impacts of changes in climate and UV-B radiation on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems, made within the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA), highlighted the profound implications of projected warming in particular for future ecosystem services, biodiversity and feedbacks to climate. However, although our current understanding of ecological processes and changes driven by climate and UV-B is strong in some geographical areas and in some disciplines, it is weak in others. Even though recently the strength of our predictions has increased dramatically with increased research effort in the Arctic and the introduction of new technologies, our current understanding is still constrained by various uncertainties. The assessment is based on a range of approaches that each have uncertainties, and on data sets that are often far from complete. Uncertainties arise from methodologies and conceptual frameworks, from unpredictable surprises, from lack of validation of models, and from the use of particular scenarios, rather than predictions, of future greenhouse gas emissions and climates. Recommendations to reduce the uncertainties are wide-ranging and relate to all disciplines within the assessment. However, a repeated theme is the critical importance of achieving an adequate spatial and long-term coverage of experiments, observations and monitoring of environmental changes and their impacts throughout the sparsely populated and remote region that is the Arctic.     

Using Available Information to Assess the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in the High Arctic: North Billjefjorden, Central Spitsbergen (Svalbard)

We review the available data that can be used to assess the potential impact of climate change on vegetation, and we use central Spitsbergen, Svalbard, as a model location for the High Arctic. We used two sources of information: recent and short-term historical records, which enable assessment on scales of particular plant communities and the landscape over a period of decades, and palynological and macrofossil analyses, which enable assessment on time scales of hundreds and thousands of years and on the spatial scale of the landscape. Both of these substitutes for standardized monitoring revealed stability of vegetation, which is probably attributable to the harsh conditions and the distance of the area from sources of diaspores of potential new incomers. The only evident recent vegetation changes related to climate change are associated with succession after glacial retreats. By establishing a network of permanent plots, researchers will be able to monitor immigration of new species from diversity 'hot spots' and from an abandoned settlement nearby. This will greatly enhance our ability to understand the effects of climate change on vegetation in the High Arctic.     

长江中下游河道整治工程施工期溢油风险防范措施研究

文中主要针对长江中下游河道整治工程施工期可能会发生的溢油事故,利用费伊公式进行油膜扩散的预测,提出溢油风险防范措施。建议在施工范围内的饮用水取水口在施工期预先设置围油栏,将溢油事故对取水口的影响降低至最低程度。     

Assessment of crude oil biodegradation in arctic seashore sediments: effects of temperature,salinity, and crude oil concentration

The expected increase in offshore oil exploration and production in the Arctic may lead to crude oil spills along arctic shorelines. To evaluate the potential effectiveness of bioremediation to treat such spills, oil spill bioremediation in arctic sediments was simulated in laboratory microcosms containing beach sediments from Barrow (Alaska), spiked with North Slope Crude, and incubated at varying temperatures and salinities. Biodegradation was measured via respiration rates (CO₂ production); volatilization was quantified by gas chromatography/mass spectrophotometry (GC/MS) analysis of hydrocarbons sorbed to activated carbon, and hydrocarbons remaining in the sediment were quantified by GC/flame ionization detector (FID). Higher temperature leads to increased biodegradation by naturally occurring microorganisms, while the release of volatile organic compounds was similar at both temperatures. Increased salinity had a small positive impact on crude oil removal. At higher crude oil dosages, volatilization increased, however CO₂ production did not. While only a small percentage of crude oil was completely biodegraded, a larger percentage was volatilized within 6–9 weeks.     

A review on submarine oil and gas leakage in near field: droplets and plume

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill remains the largest catastrophic release of oil and gas into the deep sea. The irrupted oil and gas substantially impact a marine ecosystem, cause human injury, and have high societal opinions. Therefore, understanding the transport and dispersion of subsurface hydrocarbon provides an imperative substratum for the practical assessment and response of marine oil spill accidents. In this review, we summarize the major advances since the Deepwater Horizon accident, with emphasis on the observation and modeling of the droplet and the formation and dynamics of the plume. Additional complexity including more than the investigation of gas-saturated oil at high-pressure and the effect of Earth’s rotation on near field plume is also outlined. We end with a few outlooks on key priorities for more precisely estimations on future oil spills.