Mortality rate and confidence interval estimation in humanitarian emergencies

Surveys are conducted frequently in humanitarian emergencies to assess the health status of the population. Most often, they employ complex sample designs, such as cluster sampling. Mortality is an indicator commonly estimated in such surveys. Confidence limits provide information on the precision of the estimate and it is important to ensure that confidence limits for a mortality rate account for the survey design and utilise an acceptable methodology. This paper describes the calculation of confidence limits for mortality rates from surveys using complex sampling designs and a variety of software programmes and methods. It contains an example that makes use of the SAS, SPSS, and Epi Info software programmes. Of the three confidence interval methods examined—the ratio command approach, the modified rate approach, and the modified proportion approach—the paper recommends the ratio command approach to estimate mortality rates with confidence limits.     

Limitations of anthropometry during acute food shortages: high mortality can mask refugees' deteriorating nutritional status

Longitudinal comparison of anthropometric data from cross-sectional surveys is commonly used to assess nutritional status in relief operations. In a refugee camp in Sudan, assessment indicated a high level of childhood malnutrition, but nutritional status appeared relatively unchanged between cluster sample surveys in January (26.3% below 80% of median weight-for-height) and March 1985 (28.4% below 80% of median weight-for-height). However, in this interval, which was marked by irregular food supplies and relatively low energy (calorie) intake as well as by a high incidence of diarrhoeal disease and measles, nearly 13% of all children in the camp died. This deceptive appearance of stability in nutritional status in the face of high mortality may be explained by ongoing nutritional deterioration ("replacement malnutrition") among surviving children. These findings demonstrate that collection and analysis of mortality data are essential for the correct interpretation of anthropometric results during periods of uncertain food supply.     

Information technology and emergency management: preparedness and planning in US states

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of information technology (IT) on emergency preparedness and planning by analysing a survey of US state government departments of emergency management. The research results show that there has been a significant impact of IT on emergency planning. IT has proven to be effective for all phases of emergency management, but especially for the response phase. There are numerous technologies used in emergency management, ranging from the internet, Geographic Information Systems and wireless technologies to more advanced hazard analysis models. All were generally viewed as being effective. Lack of financial resources and support from elected officials is a perennial problem in public administration, and was found to be prevalent in this study of IT and emergency management. There was evidence that state governments rating high on a performance index were more likely to use IT for emergency management.     

Setting and Evaluating the Energy Content of Emergency Rations

This paper examines the setting and evaluation of emergency rations for refugees and displaced people. After defining the purpose for which rations are designed, the variables affecting their quantification are discussed. The debate concerning the use of one as opposed to a range of energy levels for different populations is highlighted in a review of recent proposals for ration levels.
It is demonstrated that up to a twofold range occurs if different combinations of the main parameters are used. This has important implications for the large-scale provision of food. The use of one figure for the setting and evaluation of rations for all populations is inappropriate; figures should be set according to specific context and need. To achieve this, a practical two-stage approach is proposed. Stage 1, probably a desk exercise, uses pre-calculated 'look-up' tables which provide energy values for each country. These figures are for immediate use as 'rule-of-thumb' estimates, based on clearly defined parameters. The second stage involves refining the values using improved information on local conditions collected by field assessment.     

Humanitarian Daily Rations: the need for evaluation and guidelines

Over 13 million Humanitarian Daily Rations (HDRs) have been distributed by NGOs, international organisations and the US military since 1993. In that time, not a single technical end-user study of HDRs has been published. Nor have practical guidelines been established for HDR distribution or use. This paper seeks to establish a baseline of knowledge concerning HDRs, surveying their history, composition and distribution. Criticisms of the ration are reviewed. A comprehensive evaluation is required to understand and improve HDR distribution, end-use, perceptions, design and nutritional contents. HDRs must also be added to technical guidelines on planning nutritionally adequate rations.     

砼芯水泥土搅拌桩基坑支护的有限元分析

砼芯水泥土搅拌桩支护方法异于常用的支护方法,没有现成的经验可借鉴,用普通的近似方法分析和设计有较大难度。为了准确了解基坑支护结构的变形情况,确保工程安全,也为了便于该新型支护方法的推广,对该基坑支护形式进行了二维有限元分析。有限元分析中采用理想弹塑性模型,考虑了支护结构和土体之间的相互作用,并将计算结果与普通的近似方法计算结果进行了比较,发现用普通近似方法进行设计存在一定的安全隐患。对砼芯水泥土搅拌桩支护设计涉及到的水泥土桩长、方桩桩长、岩土的弹模、桩间距等关键参数进行了分析和讨论,最后对砼芯水泥土搅拌桩支护设计提出了可行建议。     

XQH1.00地震安全性评价工作程序包简介

ＸＱＨ１．００地震安全性评价工作程序包具先进性、灵活性、可靠性和实用性。编制者对危险性分析、人造地震动和土层反应等主要程序作了一系列改进，使之具有较强的计算性能。其中，人造地震动采用了自己研究提出的新技术——即时域迭加技术和反应谱整体逼近技术。该软件包采用菜单方式，实行人机对话和各种表格图件全部汉化。图件的输出可使用打印机和绘图仪，具有优良的服务性能。     

山东省海水入侵灾害危险性评价的GIS方案设计

以山东省为例，利用GIS技术建立了一套海水入侵灾害危险性评价信息系统。通过对多因素的综合分析，获取了各评判单元海水入侵灾害综合危险性指数，求得了各地海水入侵的平均距离，从而实现了山东省海水入侵灾害危险性区划，并能以地图或数据的形式快捷的显示处理结果。     

Humanitarian Crises: What Determines the Level of Emergency Assistance? Media Coverage,Donor Interests and the Aid Business

This paper proposes a basic hypothesis that the volume of emergency assistance any humanitarian crisis attracts is determined by three main factors working either in conjunction or individually. First, it depends on the intensity of media coverage. Second, it depends on the degree of political interest, particularly related to security, that donor governments have in a particular region. Third, the volume of emergency aid depends on strength of humanitarian NGOs and international organisations present in a specific country experiencing a humanitarian emergency. The empirical analysis of a number of emergency situations is carried out based on material that has never been published before. The paper concludes that only occasionally do the media play a decisive role in influencing donors. Rather, the security interests of Western donors are important together with the presence and strength of humanitarian stakeholders, such as NGOs and international organisations lobbying donor governments.     

城市防洪的一种方法—纳潮

本文介绍一种城市防洪的方法－纳潮。即以合理的调度运行，充分利用圩区的调蓄能力，降低风暴潮引起的高潮位，用以应付超标准风暴潮。通过纳潮效果与纳潮闸位置，调蓄面积，操作方式等因素的关系分析，表明纳潮是一种可行且有效的方法。本文阐述的基本规律，为工程设计、运行操作提供参考依据。     

秦峰塔动力特性试验分析

古塔的动力特性是评价其结构抗震性能和损伤状态的重要指标。本文介绍了秦峰塔动力特性测试的方法、过程及测试结果。为了得到秦峰塔准确的结构动力特性,为古塔的维修及保护提供依据,采用环境激励的方法测试了秦峰塔的动力特性,得到了其前三阶固有频率、振型和阻尼比;然后采用有限元软件ANSYS对秦峰塔建立有限元模型,并进行模态分析。所得计算结果与测试结果相比,误差较小,说明所建立的有限元模型是可靠的,可以为古塔的后续动力响应分析提供理论分析模型,测试结果可供同类古塔的维修加固、抗震鉴定等参考。     

抗滑桩施工中边坡稳定系数分析

采用连续介质快速拉格朗日差分分析方法,结合强度折减技术,设定解不收敛的破坏标准,来探讨抗滑桩施工过程中桩孔开挖对边坡稳定系数的影响这一三维问题.结合工程实例,模拟几种开挖顺序,结果表明合理的施工方案对边坡扰动甚微,而随意开挖桩孔可能使边坡失稳,且失稳时的位移不大,破坏征兆不明显,破坏更加突然,应特别注意.分析施工因素对边坡稳定系数的影响,特别是对处在极限状态下的边坡,十分必要.     

基于多速率卡尔曼滤波方法的位移和加速度数据融合

为了尽可能地利用加速度传感器和位移传感器中的冗余信息、提高振动实测数据的精度,将结构同一位置的加速度和位移观测值进行数据融合处理,提出了一种基于维纳过程加速度模型的多速率卡尔曼滤波数据融合方法。首先给出了基于维纳过程的多速率卡尔曼滤波数融合模型;然后在加速度和位移观测值的基础上,通过多速率卡尔曼滤波数据融合得到位移、速度以及加速度的的最优估计,并对融合结果进行卡尔曼平滑处理,进一步提高了状态估计准确性;最后数值分析了不同噪声水平和采样频率比对融合算法的影响,而且与相关文献的结果作了对比分析。结果表明,本文方法合理有效且具有一定的噪声鲁棒性。     

Looking forward: Disasters at 40

This paper reflects on contemporary studies of and responses to disasters, highlighting the importance of historical, spatial, and intersectional modes of analysis, and draws on the author's ongoing research on Southern‐led and local community responses to displacement in the Middle East. Acknowledging the plurality of ‘international communities of response’, it begins by critiquing the depiction of selected responses to disasters as ‘positive’ ‘paradigm shifts’, including in reference to the ‘localisation of aid, and the United Nations’ Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan for Syria. Next it turns to three key themes that are central to disasters studies: migration; forced displacement; and Southern‐led responses to disasters. Among other things, the paper argues that exploring the principles and modalities of South–South cooperation, rather than promoting the incorporation of Southern actors into the ‘international humanitarian system’ via the localisation agenda, presents a critical opportunity for studies of and responses to disasters.     

基于HHT的混凝土损伤AE信号分析新方法

介绍了HHT这一非线性、非平稳信号的处理方法。针对混凝土材料损伤所产生的声发射信号复杂的特点,提出了基于HHT的分析混凝土材料中产生的声发射信号的新方法,借此分析了从预应力混凝土梁在三点弯曲载荷下的破坏实验中拾取的实际AE信号,获得了该损伤信号的Hilbert谱。通过与小波分析结果的比较,显示出该方法具有处理精度高、自适应性强的特点,能有效地提取声发射信号中损伤成分的主要特征,为AE信号处理提供了一种新的途径。     

Disaster preparedness for farmers: A methodology

In summary, four elements are considered to be essential for introducing a national system of agricultural disaster preparedness planning:

• (a) the initiative should be taken by the Ministry of Agriculture (or its equivalent); within project areas, the initiative should be taken by the project authority, although preferably within a national system;
• (b) contingency planning should form part of an annual/ seasonal agricultural production planning; appropriate budgetary allocations should be made at this stage;
• (c) regional or district agricultural officers should be given specific responsibility to collect relevant environmental and land use information for disaster-prone areas and to prepare relevant contingency plans; and
• (d) all agricultural officials, from the Ministry down to the lowest field level, should be trained in how to make and use disaster preparedness plans; local government representatives and officials should also be trained.

Training is regarded as the key element. This is a field where international agencies such as FAO and UNDRO could assist governments to improve their state of disaster preparedness. Voluntary agencies could also play an important role in training community leaders in the identification of disaster preparedness needs and possibilities.     

猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病的危险性分析

猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病是猕猴桃的重要病害。为了正确认识该病发生的危险性,有效防止其进一步扩散蔓延,参照国际上有害生物风险分析方法,对猕猴桃细菌性溃疡病在国内的危险性进行了定性和定量分析,做出了综合评价,并提出检疫和防治管理措施。     

Reproductive health services for refugees by refugees: an example from Guinea

The need to involve refugees in their own reproductive health (RH) services has long been recognised, but there is a lack of published examples describing how this can be achieved collaboratively between refugee initiatives, UNHCR, bilateral development organisations and international relief agencies. This paper outlines the work, outputs and lessons learnt of the Reproductive Health Group (RHG), an organisation of Liberian and Sierra Leonean refugee midwives and laywomen providing RH services to fellow refugees in Guinea's Forest Region between 1996 and 2000. Working as part of the Guinean health system, RHG midwives and community facilitators helped make the RH services in their region the most effective in Guinea at the time. Looking at RHG's achievements, the challenges it faced and partly overcame, it is argued that refugee organisations can plan and implement RH services for refugees where UNHCR and its international partners ensure that they receive funding and technical assistance.     

一种台风灾情综合评估模型及应用

对台风灾情评估提出了一种基于台风灾害案例历史案例分析、综合模糊数学和灰色关联分析的综合评估模型;利用模糊隶属函数将台风灾情原始数据无量纲化,再设定一极重灾为参考序列。根据台风各评估指标与参考序列的距离,计算出关联系数;将关联系数加权平均和定义为灾度,根据灾度值评定台风的灾级。并以广东省台风灾情为例,验证了此模型。     

Conflict-related mortality: an analysis of 37 datasets

Mortality rates are among the main indicators of the human impact of armed conflict and many surveys have assessed this impact both for targeting and evaluating humanitarian aid programmes. Almost no epidemiological analysis such as calculating relative risk was performed nor were reference values clearly described. Here the aim is to review published mortality rates for a better understanding of age-specific mortality in armed conflict. Published mortality rates from conflict situations were collected and pre-conflict reference rates composed. We calculated the relative risk of dying in conflict compared to pre-conflict for children under 5 and people older than five years old. Although limited by reporting inadequacies, the results confirm the high vulnerability of children < 5 but identify a higher relative risk of dying among the > or = 5 year olds. Although not entirely new, this observation is not fully understood. Further systematic epidemiological research is needed to estimate and understand the impact of armed conflict on mortality.