北京市火灾事故特征的统计分析

为全面了解北京市火灾事故的基本情况,使用聚类分析和描述性统计对火灾事故统计数据进行了分析。结果显示,北京火灾事故存在一定的空间分布特征,中南部较其他区域火灾风险较高。火灾事故的时间趋势显示,起火次数、伤亡人数有降低趋势,直接经济损失有上升趋势。不同起火原因引起的火灾事故起数和直接经济损失中,电气和生活用火不慎引起的火灾事故占主要部分。研究对于认识北京火灾事故的特征、发展趋势和有重点的进行火灾事故预防有重要意义。     

Risk of repeat accidents by economic activity in Italy

RationaleThe phenomenon of repeat work-related accidents has not been sufficiently studied.ObjectivesTo evaluate the role of work-related factors in the occurrence of repeat accidents in Italy, using economic activity and the size of the enterprise as proxies and basing the analysis on available administrative data.MethodsThe data, provided by the Italian Workers’ Compensation Authority (INAIL), refer to accidents in the industry and artisan sectors and in the service industry between 1994 and 1999. We selected the data on accidents among 633,735 persons 25–55 years of age with a first accident in 1996–1997, and we determined the occurrence of further accidents within two years in the same economic activity, taking into account job mobility and factors associated with underreporting (geographic area, age, and size of the enterprise). The gender-specific relative risk was computed for each economic activity, given by the ratio between the risk of repeat accidents in a given economic activity and the risk in all of the other activities.ResultsIndividuals with a single accident differed from those with a repeat accident in terms of the distribution by gender, age-class, and severity of injury. The economic activities with the highest relative risk were generally those known to represent a risk of accidents in general: metal ore and coal mining, shipbuilding, the manufacturing of railroad equipment, building construction, road and railway construction, the primary iron and steel industry, foundry work, logging/wood manufacturing, slaughtering, and agriculture. However, certain activities not generally considered as hazardous showed a high risk of repeat accidents (e.g., public hygiene, and the manufacturing of bricks, pottery, and glass).ConclusionsThe epidemiological pattern of repeat accidents by economic activity reflects that of accidents in general, though with exceptions. Results suggest that factors associated with specific technical aspects and production processes are important determinants of safety. The differences between single accidents and repeat accidents by gender, age class, and severity of injury suggest that studying repeat accidents separately from first accidents is quite useful.     

Quantitative risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals leakage and application

The hazardous chemical accidents remain a matter of major concern. However, there is a dearth of practical measures about the emergency management of hazardous chemicals leakage. Therefore, in order to provide more accurate management plan, quantitative risk assessment has become a critical issue in chemical industry. The main aim of this study is to quantify the risk of hazardous chemicals leakage, and take precautions against the accidents. In this study, a Fire-Explosion-Poisoning Quantitative Probability Model (FEPQPM) has been established. The paper introduced the probability analysis methods to analyze derivative accidents caused by hazardous chemicals leakage, established quantitative risk assessment models, and made acceptable risk level analysis. This model has been applied to quantitatively assess an enterprise’s storage tank at Changshou Chemical Industrial Distripark (CID) in Chongqing, China. Evaluation results are in line with the actual situation of the CID. It is shown that the probability of poisoning is very large, causing more economic loss than the other two types of accidents, and death toll of leakage accident increases over time, resulting in greater economic losses. The risk level of leakage accident involving poisoning is unacceptable.     

燃气管网定量风险分析方法综述

以城市燃气管网的风险为研究对象,分析并提出一种可用于城市燃气管网定量风险分析的新思路,包含了不同事故后果及其物理模型的分析即事故可能性分析、后果分析和风险评价,分为失效事故假定、泄漏率计算、物理效应计算、致死率计算、风险值计算、风险评价等环节;整理、研究城市燃气管网定量风险分析所涉及的多种物理模型,并通过比较不同模型的特点,分析各个模型的不足之处;最后针对国内外研究现状及燃气管网风险的特点,指出研究发展方向:研究风险在燃气管网内的传播,提出燃气管网相继失效的风险分析方法。所提出的分析思路、计算方法可与工程应用相结合。     

Risk taking and accident frequency among Finnish forestry workers

The results of previous studies on the relationship between risk taking and accidents have been contradictory. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between risk taking and accident frequency among Finnish forestry workers. The subjects were 228 forestry workers whose risk taking was measured on a questionnaire with 25 items. The accident frequency was calculated based on both company-recorded and self-reported accidents. There were no significant relationships between risk taking and accident frequency. Even after elimination of age and work experience by partial correlations, there was no significant correlation between risk taking and accident frequency. Of the personality traits of the forestry workers, impulsiveness and neuroticism correlated significantly with risk taking but not with accident frequency. Two explanations for the failure to find significant correlation between risk taking and accident frequency are given.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

煤矿瓦斯事故危险源分类及其耦合作用分析

近年来,我国煤矿瓦斯事故频发,瓦斯事故的发生不仅造成了巨大的经济损失而且产生了不良的社会影响。但是煤矿瓦斯事故的发生并不是单一因素作用的结果,而是多种因素相互作用、相互影响,从而导致瓦斯事故的发生。这就要求我们对煤矿瓦斯事故危险源进行合理的分类,并在此基础上进行多危险源间的耦合作用分析。因此,具体全面的对瓦斯事故危险源进行分类且对其耦合作用进行分析,对丰富多因素相互作用理论,深入对煤矿系统的分析具有重要的理论意义。     

Integrated dynamic risk assessment of buried gas pipeline leakages in urban areas

In urban areas, buried gas pipeline leakages could potentially cause numerous casualties and massive damage. Traditional static analysis and dynamic probability-based quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methods have been widely used in various industries. However, dynamic QRA methods combined with probability and consequence are rarely used to evaluate gas pipelines buried in urban areas. Therefore, an integrated dynamic risk assessment approach was proposed. First, a failure rate calculation of buried gas pipelines was performed, where the corrosion failure rate dependent on time was calculated by integrating the subset simulation method. The relationship between failure probability and failure rate was considered, and a mechanical analysis model considering the corrosion growth model and multiple loads was used. The time-independent failure rates were calculated by the modification factor methods. Next, the overall evolution process from pipeline failures to accidents was proposed, with the accident rates subsequently updated. Then, the consequences of buried gas pipeline accidents corresponding to the accident types in the evolution process were modeled and analyzed. Finally, based on the above research, dynamic calculation and assessment methods for evaluating individual and social risks were established, and an overall application example was provided to demonstrate the capacity of the proposed approach. A reliable and practical theoretical basis and supporting information are provided for the integrity and emergency management of buried gas pipelines in urban areas, considering actual operational conditions.     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失，以化工多米诺事故为研究对象，探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法，梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程，并以1个天然气压气站为案例，验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

安全生产事故人员伤残间接损失统计研究

针对安全生产事故的人员伤残损失统计,除直接经济损失外,还包括因死亡和伤残而导致的间接经济损失。为了计算我国安全生产事故导致的人员伤残损失,DALY(伤残调整寿命年)是目前国际疾病负担应用较多的统计指标,其将因伤残导致的健康寿命损失和死亡寿命损失综合计算。笔者首次应用DALY来计算2005年我国工矿商贸企业伤亡事故导致的伤残寿命损失,2005年因事故伤亡导致的健康寿命损失至少有3 651 862人年,折合成静态经济损失约878亿元。通过DALY计算健康寿命损失可以从一个全新的角度发现事故造成的间接损失,在调查处理安全生产事故时,除了直接损失外,还应该重视安全生产事故带来的间接损失。     

论安全学科的内涵与本科教育课程体系建设

安全学科的内涵是该学科本科教学课程体系建设的基础。学科内涵包括学科研究对象、研究目的、学科属性、研究方法、研究范围、研究内容、基本概念和基本公理。就安全学科来说 ,其研究对象可以简单地认为是损失程度范围非常宽广的事故 ,研究目的当然就是预防事故和控制事故损失 ;由于事故的发生既有社会、人文方面的原因 ,也有自然方面的原因 ,所以安全学科的研究方法就不可能是单一的 ,学科的属性也就具有人文、社会、自然等多重性。由于社会组织最有可能控制事故发生的原因 ,所以安全学科的研究范围一定是一个大到国家、地区 ,小到企业的社会组织 ,组织之内预防事故和控制事故损失的各种方法构成了安全学科的研究内容。该学科有危险源、风险、事故、安全和危险 5个基本概念 ,也可以识别出至少 4条基本公理。以上述学科内涵为理论基础 ,可以构建出近年来作为讨论焦点的安全学科本科教学课程体系。     

Research on the prediction model of hazardous chemical road transportation accidents

In recent years, hazardous chemicals road transport accidents have occurred frequently, causing huge casualties and property losses, and accident risk assessment has become the focus of researchers' research. To predict the risk probability value of hazardous chemical road transport accidents, first, we compiled data on road transportation accidents of hazardous chemicals in China in the past five years. And the nine nodes in the Bayesian network (BN) structure were defined in combination with relevant classification standards. The optimal Bayesian network structure for hazardous chemical road transport accidents was determined based on the K2 algorithm and the causalities between the nodes. Second, the node conditional probabilities were derived by parameter learning of the model using Netica, and the validity of the model was verified using the 5-fold cross-validation method. Last, the Bayesian network model of hazardous chemical road transport accidents is used to analyze accident examples, and the accident chain of “rear-end-leakage” is predicted, and the accident is most likely to be disposed of within 3–9 h. The study shows that the derived accident prediction model for hazardous chemical road transportation can reason reasonably about the evolution of accident scenarios and determine the probability values of accident risks under different parameter conditions.     

EU initiative on the control of major accident hazards arising from pipelines

The European Council and the Parliament recognised that pipeline accidents had occurred in Europe and worldwide, which clearly indicated the `major accident hazard' potential of pipelines. The present paper presents an overview of the Community Policy on the control of major accident hazards arising from pipelines, summarises the Commission review/assessment of existing legislation on pipelines within the Member States and outlines the principles on which a possible EU initiative should be based. The review has shown that many Member States do not have comprehensive `major accident hazard' legislation in place for pipelines and therefore an EU initiative would complete existing industrial risk management legislation, based on the `precautionary principle'.     

An urban pipeline accident model based on system engineering and game theory

Urban pipeline accidents are caused by complex social-technical factors, in which urban communities and pipeline systems are involved. Such accidents can thus be investigated from the viewpoint of system engineering. System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) is a systemic method for safety assessment, which has been adopted in many domains. This approach can provide deep insights of accident causes by considering direct and indirect factors. Meanwhile, competition and cooperation between stakeholders in accidents are observed. Therefore, these parties can also be analyzed with the game theory. That is, stakeholders in STAMP can be regarded as players in game. The aim of this paper is to provide a new insight to analyze urban pipeline accidents by considering both STAMP and game theory. In this paper, we proposed an accident model for urban pipelines, with a case study of China-Qingdao pipeline accident occurred in 2013. We concluded that accident reasons can be investigated in-depth and lessons can be learned from analyzing causal factors by using STAMP. Based on results generated from STAMP, we applied the game theory to analyze roles that government and companies act in the China-Qingdao urban pipeline accident. The results show that current punishment and incentive systems are incomplete, lacking of the driving force and constraining force for the stakeholders involved in the accident.     

An integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network

Natural gas industry is developing rapidly, and its accidents are threatening the urban safety. Risk management through quantitative assessment has become an important way to improve the safety performance of the natural gas supply system. In this paper, an integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network is proposed. This method is composed of the probability assessment of accidents, the analysis of consequences and the evaluation of risk. It is noteworthy that the consequences analyzed here include those of the outside and inside gas pipelines. The analysis of consequences of the outside pipelines focuses on the individual risk and societal risk caused by different accidents, while those of the inside pipelines concerns about the risk of the economic loss because of the pressure re-distribution. Risk of a sample urban gas pipeline network is analyzed to demonstrate the presented method. The results show that this presented integrated quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipeline network can be used in practical application.     

考虑设备跌落的天然气计量站失效后果计算方法

天然气计量站阀门多且检定流程中频繁使用桁车，常规天然气站场的失效后果计算方法难以评估由此带来的影响及后果。为此，在API 581标准基础上，考虑阀门截断作用对机械损伤事故的影响，选取管段组储气量为最大天然气泄漏量，并以动量定理为依据，研究了桁车失效所引发的设备跌落事故，建立了潜在影响面积计算模型；将影响面积内损伤的管段及设备、泄漏的天然气、伤亡的人员等折算为经济损失，形成了考虑设备跌落的天然气计量站失效后果计算方法；将该方法应用于某天然气计量站。研究结果表明:设备跌落事故损失金额为机械损伤事故的3倍；当考虑设备跌落事故时，管段风险等级由低级上升为中低级。研究结果可为天然气计量站失效后果评价提供理论支撑。     

基于速度的交通事故分析

速度对交通事故的发生以及严重程度有着直接影响,是道路交通事故的重要诱因之一。为了准确地反映速度与事故之间的关系,减轻由于速度因素所造成的交通事故的损失,笔者对国内外速度与交通安全的情况进行分析;研究了平均速度与事故危险性、速度离散度与事故率以及速度与事故严重性的关系;提出了加强速度管理,控制交通流平均速度和减小相邻路段的速度差值的对策。基于速度的交通事故分析,建议采用85%位车速作为控制速度的上限值;提出限速措施,以达到减少交通事故及其损失的目的。     

油气管道伴行光缆失效统计及对策措施研究

油气管道伴行光缆在油气运输中起着十分重要的作用。由于外部环境的突发性、复杂性、不可控性,导致伴行光缆管理困难、混乱,断缆事件经常发生,给油气管道运输带来较大损失。本文以某公司为例,以2012~2018年光缆断裂事故数据为依托,运用鱼刺图方法梳理出光缆失效的4大原因类别,并应用故障树分析法对光缆失效进行分析,从最小割(径)集、结构重要度方面对光缆失效因素分析,并针对不同的危害因素提出合理的风险管控措施,构建光缆失效保护层,为今后油气管道伴行光缆风险管控提供指导。     

基于社会公共机构的道路交通事故经济损失评价及计量模型研究

根据中国道路交通事故经济损失的研究现状,借鉴国外对道路交通事故经济损失研究的成功经验,提出适用于中国实际情况的交通事故社会公共机构服务损失费用构成;确定了道路交通事故社会公共机构服务损失评价指标体系。基于经济学和统计学理论,主要从警方服务、清障服务、管理部门服务和法律诉讼服务4个方面对道路交通事故社会服务损失进行了深层次理论分析与评价;构建了相应的评价计量模型;提出了我国评价交通事故社会服务损失的一些合理化建议。研究结果对科学、全面、合理地评价道路交通事故社会经济损失具有重要的实际意义。