首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Climate change associated with sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major environmental concerns of today. This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone of Kanyakumari District in Tamilnadu, India. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combined with overlay techniques in GIS are used in determining the inundation zones along the coastal region. The analysis evaluated the impact on coastal fishing villages, landuse, tourist spots and sensitive areas under threat. The vulnerability of the coastal areas in Kanyakumari to inundation was quantified, based on the projected sea level rise scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m. Our findings reveal that approximately 13 km2 of the land area of Kanyakumari would be permanently inundated due to SLR. This would result in loss of land, alteration of the coastal zone and affects coastal ecosystem. From the study, the mitigation measures (engineering measures) and Coastal Zone Management practices that can be taken to protect human life and property from sea level rise are suggested.  相似文献   

2.
In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not based merely on the need for coastal protection due to physical coastal erosion. There is also the need to determine the level of awareness of sea-level rise and responses in coastal communities to improve adaptation planning. This study assesses the impact of future erosion on the coastal land cover of Ghana. This assessment estimates approximately 2.66 km2, 2.77 km2, and 3.24 km2 of coastal settlements, 2.10 km2, 2.20 km2 and 2.58 km2 of lagoons, 1.39 km2, 1.46 km2 and 1.71 km2 of wetlands to be at risk of inundation by the year 2050 based on coastal erosion estimates for the 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study also assesses the level of awareness of respondents to SLR on the coast of Ghana and explores the availability and level of integration of scientific knowledge of SLR into coastal adaptation strategies in Ghana. Assessment of the awareness of SLR responses to the changing climate in Ghana is made through semi-structured interviews at national, municipal/district and coastal community scales. Although settlements may be inundated based on the coastal erosion estimates, coastal dwellers interviewed cherish their proximity to the sea and are determined to maintain their occupancy close to the sea as spatial location influences their source of livelihood (fishing). Respondents lack knowledge/understanding of SLR, as the majority of household interviewees attributed the rise or fall in sea level to God. Respondents from Ngiresia alleged that the ongoing coastal sea defence project in their community has led to increased malaria cases.  相似文献   

3.
The spatial distribution of mangroves in the Mngazana Estuary under sea level rise induced by climate change, together with different substrate elevation change scenarios was predicted for 2020, 2050 and 2100. The present inundation frequency tolerance range was from 0.8 to 31.2 %, equivalent to substrate elevation thresholds of 1.1 and 1.7 m amsl. These thresholds were measured by field surveys and analysis of a gauge station situated near the mouth of the estuary. The predictions were based on the assumption that the inundation frequency tolerance range of mangrove stands remains constant in the future. Through the use of a digital elevation model an initial increase of 2.10 ha year?1 was found in mangrove area between present and 2020 (from 122.6 to 143.6 ha). This was due to habitat becoming available that is currently too compacted for seedling establishment to occur. This compaction resulted from human and cattle traffic for grazing. Thereafter there would be a mean loss of 0.66 ha year?1 from 2020 through 2100. Landward migration of mangroves would not take place due to the elevation limit of adjacent non-mangrove areas. In addition, the loss rate would increase to 1.01 ha year?1 under insufficient sediment accretion, but would decrease to 0.18 ha year?1 under thriving mangroves condition. The analysis of sea storm event in September 2008 showed that local water level increased by 28 cm and maximum affected area was 87.0 ha (about 71 % of mangrove stands). The inundation continued over 5 days. The results indicated that the combination impact of sea level rise, substrate elevation change and sea storm would possibly be a threat to tropical African estuaries with large flat intertidal areas and mangroves.  相似文献   

4.
Recent sea-level rise has mostly been attributed to global warming and this process is expected to continue for centuries. The extent of the impact of sea level rise on tourism in Ghana is unknown though there are predictions that some prominent tourism facilities are at risk. This paper assessed the potential impact of enhanced sea level rise (ESLR) for different IPCC scenarios on tourism facilities along the coast of Accra. Shorelines for 1974 and 2005 were extracted from orthophotos and topographic maps, and vulnerability for tourism facilities estimated. Mean sea level measurements indicated an average rise of 3.3 mm/year, while the shoreline eroded by as much as 0.86 m/year. Predictions for Ghana showed 10 cm, 23.4 cm and 36.4 cm sea level rise for 2020, 2060 and 2100 respectively with 1990 as base year. Modelled predictions for the years 2020, 2060 and 2100 based on A2 (enhanced regional economic growth) and B2 (more environmentally focused) IPCC scenarios indicated that 13 tourism facilities are at risk to sea level rise. Out of the total number of tourism facilities at risk, 31 % cannot physically withstand the event of sea level rise hazard. In terms of socio-economic vulnerability, accommodation facilities are the most susceptible. Salinization and sanitation problems along the coast will adversely affect tourism.  相似文献   

5.
Low-elevation coastal areas and their populations are at risk during and after the appearance of a storm surge event. Coastal flooding as a result of storm surge events is investigated in this paper for a number of areas around the north-eastern (NE) Mediterranean coastal zone (Adriatic, Aegean and north Levantine seas). The sea level rise (SLR) due to storm surge events is examined for the period 2000?C2004. Wind data, atmospheric pressure and wave data for this period as well as in situ sea elevation measurements (from stations around the Mediterranean coasts) were used. Potential inundation zones were then identified using a 90-m horizontal resolution digital elevation model (DEM). At these zones, the sea surface elevations were calculated for the study period, using the collected data and a 2D storm surge simulation model (1/10o??1/10o) output, examining the sea level alteration in specific coastal areas, where in situ measurements are absent and are characterised as ??risky?? in inundation areas, due to their topography. In order to determine the level of storm track implication on major SLR incidents, the trajectories of the respective storm events were computed. The aim of this paper is to investigate the major storm surge events that appeared during the study period, identify the major ??risky?? costal regions along the north-eastern Mediterranean coast and determine their hazard level due to inundation caused by storm surge phenomena. The combination of the risk level determination of an area and the calculation of sea level alteration is an important tool in terms of predicting and protecting the coastal area from extreme meteorological incidents.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract:  The projected rise in sea level is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal zones in the Caribbean, which are already under pressure from a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes. One of the major effects will be a loss of beach habitat, which provides nesting sites for endangered sea turtles. To assess the potential impacts of sea-level rise on sea turtle nesting habitat, we used beach profile measurements of turtle nesting beaches on Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles, to develop elevation models of individual beaches in a geographic information system. These models were then used to quantify areas of beach vulnerable to three different scenarios of a rise in sea level. Physical characteristics of the beaches were also recorded and related to beach vulnerability, flooding, and nesting frequency. Beaches varied in physical characteristics and therefore in their vulnerability to flooding. Up to 32% of the total current beach area could be lost with a 0.5-m rise in sea level, with lower, narrower beaches being the most vulnerable. Vulnerability varied with land use adjacent to the beach. These predictions about loss of nesting habitat have important implications for turtle populations in the region.  相似文献   

7.
Sea-level rise as a result of climate change increases inundation and erosion, which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. China’s coast is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding because of physical and socio-economical factors such as its low topography, highly developed economy, and highly dense population. To identify vulnerable sections of the coast, this paper presents a national assessment of the vulnerability of the Chinese coast using 8 physical variables: sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, elevation, slope, shoreline erosion, land use, mean tide range, and mean wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was calculated by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the 8 variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into 4 classes. The results show that 3% of the 18,000-km-long Chinese coast is very highly vulnerable, 29% is highly vulnerable, 58% is moderately vulnerable, and 10% is in the low-vulnerable class. Findings further reveal that large amounts of land and population will be vulnerable to inundation by coastal flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. Finally, some suggestions are presented for decision makers and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal zone management and mitigation measures.  相似文献   

8.
Among the effects of global warming, sea level rise (SLR) and severe typhoons pose the greatest threat to the stability of human settlements along coastlines. Therefore, countermeasures must be developed to mitigate the influences of strong typhoons and persistent SLR for coastal protection. This study assesses climate change impacts on coastal erosion, especially in two projected SLR scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The results show that SLR and severe typhoons lead to the increase of coastal erosion, beach lowering and scour. Moreover, as in projected SLR scenarios, average waves in high tide can cause severe soil erosion at inner slopes and lead to dyke failure by 2060. The paper highlights the need for additional countermeasures to protect the coast of Hai Hau district against SLR and severe typhoons. Among the alternatives available for countering these threats, applying soil stabilization and soil improvement combined with geosynthetics are promising strategies for coastal structures. Hybrid structures can be used with earth reinforcement and soil improvement. Additionally, the paper emphasizes the importance of multiple protective adaptations, including geosynthetics and ecological engineering measures against climate change-induced severe erosion on the coast of Hai Hau district.  相似文献   

9.
The Ada peninsular in Ghana has suffered rapid coastal erosion and inundation for over half a century, accompanied by loss of property and livelihoods, economic stagnation and salt water intrusion. Government intervened to respond to these threats by implementing a sea defence project. A preliminary assessment indicates the project will deal with some urgent needs of property loss reduction and invigorate livelihood and economic opportunities. However, it will have minimal beneficial impacts on groundwater salinization, and may actually intensify salinity of surface water in the Volta River and adjoining water points by shifting salinity intrusion further upstream to affect hitherto salinity-free areas. The spatial reach of the salinity shift is uncertain. The potential for further sea level rise will aggravate and accentuate the region’s water scarcity dilemma if a coherent water management strategy is not sort sooner. The project demonstrates the limitations of employing static, narrow objectively designed sea defence project as a response to coastal erosion and inundation, because it lacks the capacity to deal with dynamism, complexity and multi-dimensional impacts associated with climate change related sea level rise.  相似文献   

10.
Accelerated sea level rise (slr) is expected to transform vulnerable Atlantic coastal habitats in the United States during this century. Low-elevation sandy beaches, important nesting habitat for the continued recovery of the federally threatened piping plover (Charadrius melodus) in Rhode Island, are especially vulnerable. These beaches, under a mix of private and public ownership, exist in a heterogeneous landscape of dunes, rocky headlands, salt ponds, and heavily developed areas. Understanding the extent to which piping plover nesting beaches can retreat landward under projected slr is important for prioritizing future conservation actions across multiple jurisdictions. This research examines habitat change in response to slr (0.5, 1.0, and 1.5 m) under stationary and migration beach responses and whether development blocks habitat migration for five productive piping plover nesting beaches. We found that under the stationary habitat model, all beaches lose area under all slr scenarios. For the habitat migration model, future habitat availability differs by beach depending on elevation, landward topography, and presence of development. However, across the majority of beach area, piping plover habitat will be able to migrate landward if unconstrained by future development. A coalition of public and private stakeholders already supports management efforts to help ensure plover population recovery in the area. With emerging habitat change prediction tools, these stakeholders and other partners can engage in innovative, local-level planning needed to protect wildlife habitat and commercial, residential, and infrastructure assets from sea level rise.  相似文献   

11.
The head Bay region bordering the Bay of Bengal is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Catastrophic risks from storm surge and associated inundation are quite high due to high population density in coastal areas, socio-economic conditions, and shallow bathymetry. It features the world’s largest deltaic system comprising of ‘Sunderbans’ bordered by West Bengal and Bangladesh. In a geomorphologic sense, the head Bay region is a low-lying belt comprising several barrier islands and river drainage systems, numerous tidal creeks, and mud flats having a high risk for widespread inundation. In addition, the high tidal range together with low-lying topography leads to high risk and vulnerability from storm surge inundation. During May 2009, a severe cyclonic storm Aila struck West Bengal causing enormous destruction to life and property along coastal belts of West Bengal and Bangladesh. It was the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the past two decades that had landfall in West Bengal. This work reports on a numerical study for hypothetical storm surge and associated inundation from Aila using the ADCIRC model. The study covers a comprehensive qualitative analysis on water level elevation and onshore inundation for West Bengal and Bangladesh regions. The estimated peak storm surge was about 4 m in the Sunderban region that propagated into all major riverine systems, inundating the river banks as well the inland areas. Numerical simulations indicate an average inland penetration distance of 350 m with a maximum of 600 m at various coastal locations in West Bengal and Bangladesh. The study emphasizes the need and importance of inundation modeling system required for emergency preparedness and disaster management.  相似文献   

12.
Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.  相似文献   

13.
The coastal wetlands of north-eastern New South Wales (NSW) Australia are increasingly being affected by anthropogenic factors such as urbanisation, residential development and agricultural development. However, little is known about their vulnerability to sea level rise as a result of climate change. The aim of this research is to predict the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the coastal wetland communities. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was used to predict the potential impacts of sea level rise. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for mapping and analysis. It was found that a meter rise in sea level could decrease coastal wetlands such as Inland fresh marshes from about 225.67 km2 in February 2009 to about 168.04 km2 by the end of the century in north-eastern NSW, Australia. The outcomes from this research can contribute to enhancing wetland conservation and management in NSW.  相似文献   

14.
The present study aims at assessing the life span of populations of the orchid L. loeselii during successional in dune slacks on the Wadden Sea islands. An inventory of Liparis loeselii populations was carried out on 6 islands, while the population structure was assessed in more detail on the island of Texel. The occurrence of the orchid was related to soil factors and hydrological conditions. Groundwater levels were measured in a dune area with natural dune slack formation. The groundwater composition was analyses and the freshwater lenses were modelled. Various scenarios were investigated, including sea level rise and sand nourishment. The window of opportunity for L. loeselii to colonize a new slack is relatively narrow. Under favorable management, the population can survive c. 20 years. Soil pH was positively correlated with the occurrence of L. loeselii populations, while a high organic matter content was negatively correlated. Sites with large populations of L. loeselii, were situated in young dune slacks, that functioned as flow-through lakes and has top soilsinfluenced by anoxic calcareous groundwater. Modelling showed that the freshwater lens would decrease due to sea level rise, while artificial sand nourishment could counteract this effect. The populations of the Hors area on Texel, the Netherlands, can survive for several decades due to continuous formation of new slacks. Discharge of calcareous groundwater is essential to keep the pH on a high level. The hydrological systems that supply dune slack with groundwater are relatively small and are vulnerable for changes in sea level rise.  相似文献   

15.
Coastal zones experience increased rates of coastal erosion, due to rising sea levels, increased storm surge frequencies, reduced sediment delivery and anthropogenic transformations. Yet, coastal zones host ecosystems that provide associated services which, therefore, may be lost due to coastal erosion. In this paper we assess to what extent past and future coastal erosion patterns lead to losses in land cover types and associated ecosystem service values. Hence, historical (based on CORINE land cover information) and projected (based on Dynamic and Interactive Vulnerability Assessment - DIVA - simulations) coastal erosion patterns are used in combination with a benefits transfer approach. DIVA projections are based on regionalized IPCC scenarios. Relative to the period 1975–2050, a case study is provided for selected European coastal country member states. For historical (1975–2006) coastal erosion trends, we observe territory losses in coastal agricultural, water body and forest & semi-natural areas – total coastal erosion equaling over 4,500 km2. Corresponding coastal ecosystem service values decrease from about €22.3 billion per year in 1975 to about €21.6 billion per year in 2006. For future (2006–2050) coastal erosion projections, total territory losses equal between ~3,700 km2 and ~5,800 km2 – coastal wetland areas being affected most severely. Corresponding coastal ecosystem service values decrease to between €20.1 and €19.4 billion per year by 2050. Hence, we argue that the response strategy of EU member states to deal with coastal erosion and climate change impacts should be based on the economic as well as the ecological importance of their coastal zones.  相似文献   

16.
Storm Xynthia crossed France’s western coast between 28th February and 1st March 2010. It hit the Vendée and Charente-Maritime departments hardest, as storm surge flooded up to 23,000 ha of coastal agricultural areas (i.e. polders), causing severe damage to farming operations. However, farm-level damage in the aftermath of seawater flooding is an issue that has rarely been explored in the literature. Here we investigated the effects of storm Xynthia on agriculture at the farm scale. We focused on the case study of Saint Laurent de la Prée research farm, a mixed crop–livestock system that was severely hit. All damages were described and economic losses were quantified for the years 2010 and 2011. The results show numerous consequences of the storm in terms of crop and fodder production losses, but also farm infrastructure repairs, crop restoration and animal health problems. Economic damage costs were high, reaching €71,720 in 2010 (€500/ha flooded) and €56,195 (€390/ha) in 2011 for the case study farm. The discussion highlights the farm-level impacts of seawater flooding and the crucial factors that can explain the damage caused to agriculture by storm events in coastal areas. The results are also discussed in the wider context of global warming which is expected to cause sea level rise and more frequent storm events in the future. The vulnerability of coastal agricultural areas to storms thus exposes broader issues of coastal flooding risk management and specifically the allied protection–remediation–adaptation measures. The conclusions underline the need for future research to address prospective scenarios and subsequent adaptive strategies.  相似文献   

17.
Every year, millions of migratory shorebirds fly through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway between their arctic breeding grounds and Australasia. This flyway includes numerous coastal wetlands in Asia and the Pacific that are used as stopover sites where birds rest and feed. Loss of a few important stopover sites through sea‐level rise (SLR) could cause sudden population declines. We formulated and solved mathematically the problem of how to identify the most important stopover sites to minimize losses of bird populations across flyways by conserving land that facilitates upshore shifts of tidal flats in response to SLR. To guide conservation investment that minimizes losses of migratory bird populations during migration, we developed a spatially explicit flyway model coupled with a maximum flow algorithm. Migratory routes of 10 shorebird taxa were modeled in a graph theoretic framework by representing clusters of important wetlands as nodes and the number of birds flying between 2 nodes as edges. We also evaluated several resource allocation algorithms that required only partial information on flyway connectivity (node strategy, based on the impacts of SLR at nodes; habitat strategy, based on habitat change at sites; population strategy, based on population change at sites; and random investment). The resource allocation algorithms based on flyway information performed on average 15% better than simpler allocations based on patterns of habitat loss or local bird counts. The Yellow Sea region stood out as the most important priority for effective conservation of migratory shorebirds, but investment in this area alone will not ensure the persistence of species across the flyway. The spatial distribution of conservation investments differed enormously according to the severity of SLR and whether information about flyway connectivity was used to guide the prioritizations. With the rapid ongoing loss of coastal wetlands globally, our method provides insight into efficient conservation planning for migratory species. Gestión Óptima de una Ruta Migratoria de Múltiples Especies de Aves Costeras Sometida a Incremento del Nivel del Mar  相似文献   

18.
Cocos Bay is a barrier beach under threat of marine erosion from the high energy environment of the Atlantic Ocean. This barrier beach borders the Ramsar listed Nariva Swamp, and helps maintain its delicate wetland ecosystem, however, ongoing coastal erosion at this beach threatens the longevity of this freshwater wetland. Due to the geographical location of Cocos Bay being exposed to Atlantic generated storm events and the low relief of the study area, there is a potential threat of storm surges breaching the barrier beach. Owing to the geological setting of the region (located in an active seismic province with earthquakes, volcanicity and landslides), there also exists the threat of tsunamis. This paper is a GIS simulation of the area extent of inundation and the affected infrastructure from such events. It utilizes a DEM and land-use to quantifying inundation areas, and the extent of vulnerability of various elements. The low relief of the barrier beach renders the area extremely vulnerable from events that trigger sea level increases. Simulations revealed that as little as a 1 m storm surge has the potential to disrupt the Nariva Swamp and threaten coastal infrastructure while higher storm surges and tsunamis have the potential to decimate the entire area. The flood-risk model generated indicates a very high vulnerability to storm surges, along the entire length of the coastline. These results have implications for future development and sustainable management of this ecologically sensitive area.  相似文献   

19.
Coastal dunes are delicate systems that are under threat from a variety of human and natural influences. Groundwater modelling can provide a better understanding of how these systems operate and can be a useful tool towards the effective management of a coastal dune system, e.g. by identifying strategically important locations for flora and fauna and guiding the planning of management operations through predicting impacts from climatic change, sea level rise and land use management. Most dune systems are small, typically of the size 10–100 km2, compared with inland groundwater systems. Applying conventional groundwater modelling approaches to these small systems presents a number of challenges due to the local scale of the system and the fact that the system boundaries (sea, drains, ponds etc.) are close to the main body of the aquifer. In this paper, two case studies will be presented using different modelling approaches to understand the groundwater balance in two dune systems in the UK. The studies demonstrate that, although conventional hydraulic models can describe the general system behaviour, a fuller understanding of the recharge mechanisms and system boundaries is needed to represent adequately system dynamics of small groundwater systems.  相似文献   

20.
ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号