CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF A PINE PLANTATION1

ABSTRACT: There are increasing concerns in the forestry community about global climate change and variability associated with elevated atmospheric CO₂. Changes in precipitation and increases in air temperature could impose additional stress on forests during the next century. For a study site in Carteret County, North Carolina, the General Circulation Model, HADCM2, predicts that by the year 2099, maximum air temperature will increase 1.6 to 1.9°C, minimum temperature will increase 2.5 to 2.8°C, and precipitation will increase 0 to 10 percent compared to the mid‐1990s. These changes vary from season to season. We utilized a forest ecosystem process model, PnET‐II, for studying the potential effects of climate change on drainage outflow, evapotranspiration, leaf area index (LAI) and forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP). This model was first validated with long term drainage and LAI data collected at a 25‐ha mature loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) experimental watershed located in the North Carolina lower coastal plain. The site is flat with poorly drained soils and high groundwater table. Therefore, a high field capacity of 20 cm was used in the simulation to account for the topographic effects. This modeling study suggested that future climate change would cause a significant increase of drainage (6 percent) and forest productivity (2.5 percent). Future studies should consider the biological feedback (i.e., stomata conductance and water use efficiency) to air temperature change.     

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Simulated Evapotranspiration and Streamflow over Texas Using the WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID Modeling Framework

This study assesses a large‐scale hydrologic modeling framework (WRF‐Hydro‐RAPID) in terms of its high‐resolution simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow over Texas (drainage area: 464,135 km²). The reference observations used include eight‐day ET data from MODIS and FLUXNET, and daily river discharge data from 271 U.S. Geological Survey gauges located across a climate gradient. A recursive digital filter is applied to decompose the river discharge into surface runoff and base flow for comparison with the model counterparts. While the routing component of the model is pre‐calibrated, the land component is uncalibrated. Results show the model performance for ET and runoff is aridity‐dependent. ET is better predicted in a wet year than in a dry year. Streamflow is better predicted in wet regions with the highest efficiency ~0.7. In comparison, streamflow is most poorly predicted in dry regions with a large positive bias. Modeled ET bias is more strongly correlated with the base flow bias than surface runoff bias. These results complement previous evaluations by incorporating more spatial details. They also help identify potential processes for future model improvements. Indeed, improving the dry region streamflow simulation would require synergistic enhancements of ET, soil moisture and groundwater parameterizations in the current model configuration. Our assessments are important preliminary steps towards accurate large‐scale hydrologic forecasts.     

ADEQUACY OF SELECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION APPROXIMATIONS FOR HYDROLOGIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: Evapotranspiration (ET) approximations, usually based on computed potential ET (PET) and diverse PET‐to‐ET conceptualizations, are routinely used in hydrologic analyses. This study presents an approach to incorporate measured (actual) ET data, increasingly available using micrometeorological methods, to define the adequacy of ET approximations for hydrologic simulation. The approach is demonstrated at a site where eddy correlation‐measured ET values were available. A baseline hydrologic model incorporating measured ET values was used to evaluate the sensitivity of simulated water levels, subsurface recharge, and surface runoff to error in four ET approximations. An annually invariant pattern of mean monthly vegetation coefficients was shown to be most effective, despite the substantial year‐to‐year variation in measured vegetation coefficients. The temporal variability of available water (precipitation minus ET) at the humid, subtropical site was largely controlled by the relatively high temporal variability of precipitation, benefiting the effectiveness of coarse ET approximations, a result that is likely to prevail at other humid sites.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONCEPTUALIZATION IN THE HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODELS1

In 1988, the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) funded project to develop an advanced hydrologic model for shallow water table systems. The FIPR hydrologic model (FHM) was developed to provide an improved predictive capability of the interactions of surface water and ground water using its component models, HSPF and MODFLOW. The Integrated Surface and Ground Water (ISGW) model was developed from an early version of FHM and the two models were developed relatively independently in the late 1990s. Hydrologic processes including precipitation, interception, evapotranspiration, runoff, recharge, streamflow, and base flow are explicitly accounted for in both models. Considerable review of FHM and ISGW and their applications occurred through a series of projects. One model evolved, known as the Integrated Hydrological Model IHM. This model more appropriately describes hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration fluxes within small distributed land‐based discretization. There is a significant departure of many IHM algorithms from FHM and ISGW, especially for soil water and evapotranspiration (ET). In this paper, the ET concepts in FHM, ISGW, and IHM will be presented. The paper also identifies the advantages and data costs of the improved methods. In FHM and IHM, ground water ET algorithms of the MODFLOW ET package replace those of HSPF (ISGW used a different model for ground water ET). However, IHM builds on an improved understanding and characterization of ET partitioning between surface storages, vadose zone storage, and saturated ground water storage. The IHM considers evaporative flux from surface sources, proximity of the water table to land surface, relative moisture condition of the unsaturated zone, thickness of the capillary zone, thickness of the root zone, and relative plant cover density. The improvements provide a smooth transition to satisfy ET demand between the vadose zone and deeper saturated ground water. While the IHM approach provides a more sound representation of the actual soil profile than FHM, and has shown promise at reproducing soil moisture and water table fluctuations as well as field measured ET rates, more rigorous testing is necessary to understand the robustness and/or limitations of this methodology.     

Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial‐Nival Watershed,Japan1

Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year‐round, including rain‐on‐snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree‐day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid‐February to mid‐March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites.     

Annual Estimates of Recharge,Quick‐Flow Runoff,and Evapotranspiration for the Contiguous U.S. Using Empirical Regression Equations

This study presents new data‐driven, annual estimates of the division of precipitation into the recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) water budget components for 2000‐2013 for the contiguous United States (CONUS). The algorithms used to produce these maps ensure water budget consistency over this broad spatial scale, with contributions from precipitation influx attributed to each component at 800 m resolution. The quick‐flow runoff estimates for the contribution to the rapidly varying portion of the hydrograph are produced using data from 1,434 gaged watersheds, and depend on precipitation, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, and surficial geology type. Evapotranspiration estimates are produced from a regression using water balance data from 679 gaged watersheds and depend on land cover, temperature, and precipitation. The quick‐flow and ET estimates are combined to calculate recharge as the remainder of precipitation. The ET and recharge estimates are checked against independent field data, and the results show good agreement. Comparisons of recharge estimates with groundwater extraction data show that in 15% of the country, groundwater is being extracted at rates higher than the local recharge. These maps of the internally consistent water budget components of recharge, quick‐flow runoff, and ET, being derived from and tested against data, are expected to provide reliable first‐order estimates of these quantities across the CONUS, even where field measurements are sparse.     

SIMULATING THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED PRECIPITATION ON GROUND WATER AND STREAMFLOW IN THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS1

ABSTRACT: The Nebraska Sand Hills have a unique hydrologic system with very little runoff and thick aquifers that constantly supply water to rivers, lakes, and wetlands. A ground water flow model was developed to determine the interactions between ground water and streamflow and to simulate the changes in ground water systems by reduced precipitation. The numerical modeling method includes a water balance model for the vadose zone and MOD‐FLOW for the saturated zone. The modeling results indicated that, between 1979 and 1990, 13 percent of the annual precipitation recharged to the aquifer and annual ground water loss by evapotranspiration (ET) was only about one‐fourth of this recharge. Ground water discharge to rivers accounts for about 96 percent of the streamflow in the Dismal and Middle Loup rivers. When precipitation decreased by half the average amount of the 1979 to 1990 period, the average decline of water table over the study area was 0.89 m, and the streamflow was about 87 percent of the present rate. This decline of the water table results in significant reductions in ET directly from ground water and so a significant portion of the streamflow is maintained by capture of the salvaged ET.     

Evaluation of the MIKE SHE Model for Application in the Loess Plateau,China1

Abstract: Quantifying the hydrologic responses to land use/land cover change and climate variability is essential for integrated sustainable watershed management in water limited regions such as the Loess Plateau in Northwestern China where an adaptive watershed management approach is being implemented. Traditional empirical modeling approach to quantifying the accumulated hydrologic effects of watershed management is limited due to its complex nature of soil and water conservation practices (e.g., biological, structural, and agricultural measures) in the region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of the distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE to simulate basin runoff. Streamflow data measured from an overland flow‐dominant watershed (12 km²) in northwestern China were used for model evaluation. Model calibration and validation suggested that the model could capture the dominant runoff process of the small watershed. We found that the physically based model required calibration at appropriate scales and estimated model parameters were influenced by both temporal and spatial scales of input data. We concluded that the model was useful for understanding the rainfall‐runoff mechanisms. However, more measured data with higher temporal resolution are needed to further test the model for regional applications.     

A STRIP MODEL APPROACH TO PARAMETERIZE A COUPLED GREEN‐AMPT KINEMATIC WAVE MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Infiltration processes at the plot scale are often described and modeled using a single effective hydraulic conductivity (Kg) value. This can lead to errors in runoff and erosion prediction. An integrated field measurement and modeling study was conducted to evaluate: (1) the relationship among rainfall intensity, spatially variable soil and vegetation characteristics, and infiltration processes; and (2) how this relationship could be modeled using Green and Ampt and a spatially distributed hydrologic model. Experiments were conducted using a newly developed variable intensity rainfall simulator on 2 m by 6 m plots in a rangeland watershed in southeastern Arizona. Rainfall application rates varied between 50 and 200 mm/hr. Results of the rainfall simulator experiments showed that the observed hydrologic response changed with changes in rainfall intensity and that the response varied with antecedent moisture condition. A distributed process based hydrologic simulation model was used to model the plots at different levels of hydrologic complexity. The measurement and simulation model results show that the rainfall runoff relationship cannot be accurately described or modeled using a single Kg value at the plot scale. Multi‐plane model configurations with infiltration parameters based on soil and plot characteristics resulted in a significant improvement over single‐plane configurations.     

APPLICATION OF A HYDROLOGIC MODEL FOR LAND USE PLANNING IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: An environmental simulation model of the Upper St. Johns River Basin, Florida, has been developed in order to predict hydrologic responses under proposed management plans. Land use projections for each of 19 hydrologic planning units are provided by a linear programming analysis of agricultural activities. Inputs to the model include rainfall, runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), aquifer properties, topography, soil types, and vegetative patterns. A water balance is developed in the uplands based on infiltration, ET, surface runoff, and groundwater flow. Valley continuity is based on stage-volume relationship for inflows and outflows and a variable roughness coefficient dependent on vegetative patterns. Land use changes form the basis for predicting hydroperiod variation under alternative management schemes. Plans are ranked according to two criteria, deviation from a natural hydroperiod and flood or drought control provided. Results indicate that (1) a single reservoir without irrigation and (2) floodplain preservation plans are superior to (3) multiple reservoir with irrigation and (4) uncontrolled floodplain plans with regard to both criteria.     

SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER‐BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: A monthly water‐balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil‐moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R‐square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long‐term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low‐flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R‐square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.     

Full Water‐Cycle Monitoring in an Urban Catchment Reveals Unexpected Water Transfers (Detroit MI,USA)

A goal in urban water management is to reduce the volume of stormwater runoff in urban systems and the effect of combined sewer overflows into receiving waters. Effective management of stormwater runoff in urban systems requires an accounting of various components of the urban water balance. To that end, precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), sewer flow, and groundwater in a 3.40‐hectare sewershed in Detroit, Michigan were monitored to capture the response of the sewershed to stormwater flow prior to implementation of stormwater control measures. Monitoring results indicate that stormflow in sewers was not initiated unless rain depth was 3.6 mm or greater. ET removed more than 40% of the precipitation in the sewershed, whereas pipe flow accounted for 19%–85% of the losses. Flows within the sewer that could not be associated with direct precipitation indicate an unexpected exchange of water between the leaky sewer and the groundwater system, pathways through abandoned or failing residential infrastructure, or a combination of both. Groundwater data indicate that groundwater flows into the leaky combined sewer rather than out. This research demonstrates that urban hydrologic fluxes can modulate the local water cycle in complex ways which affect the efficiency of the wastewater system, effectiveness of stormwater management, and, ultimately, public health.     

STREAM DISCHARGE PREDICTION VIA A GRID BASED SOIL WATER ROUTING WITH PADDY FIELDS1

ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km² watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R² of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed.     

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment1

Shrestha, Rajesh R., Yonas B. Dibike, and Terry D. Prowse, 2011. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Nutrient Loading in the Upper Assiniboine Catchment. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 74‐89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00592.x Abstract: This paper presents a modeling study on climate‐induced changes in hydrologic and nutrient fluxes in the Upper Assiniboine catchment, located in the Lake Winnipeg watershed. The hydrologic and agricultural chemical yield model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to model a 21‐year baseline (1980‐2000) and future (2042‐2062) periods with model forcings for future climates derived from three regional climate models (RCMs) and their ensemble means. The modeled future scenarios reveal that potential future changes in the climatic regime are likely to modify considerably hydrologic and nutrient fluxes. The effects of future changes in climatic variables, especially precipitation and temperature, are clearly evident in the resulting snowmelt and runoff regimes. The future hydrologic scenarios consistently show earlier onsets of spring snowmelt and discharge peaks, and higher total runoff volumes. The simulated nutrient loads closely match the dynamics of the future runoff for both nitrogen and phosphorus, in terms of earlier timing of peak loads and higher total loads. However, nutrient concentrations could decrease due to the higher rate of runoff increase. Overall, the effects of these changes on the nutrient transport regime need to be considered together with possible future changes in land use, crop type, fertilizer application, and transformation processes in the receiving water bodies.     

MODELING THE FOREST HYDROLOGY OF WETLAND-UPLAND ECOSYSTEMS IN FLORIDA1

ABSTRACT: Few hydrological models are applicable to pine flat-woods which are a mosaic of pine plantations and cypress swamps. Unique features of this system include ephemeral sheet flow, shallow dynamic ground water table, high rainfall and evapotranspiration, and high infiltration rates. A FLATWOODS model has been developed specifically for the cypress wetland-pine upland landscape by integrating a 2-D ground water model, a Variable-Source-Area (VAS)-based surface flow model, an evapotranspiration (ET) model, and an unsaturated water flow model. The FLATWOODS model utilizes a distributed approach by dividing the entire simulation domain into regular cells. It has the capability to continuously simulate the daily values of ground water table depth, ET, and soil moisture content distributions in a watershed. The model has been calibrated and validated with a 15-year runoff and a four-year ground water table data set from two different pine flat woods research watersheds in northern Florida. This model may be used for predicting hydrologic impacts of different forest management practices in the coastal regions.     

Hydrologic Model Framework for Water Resources Planning in the Santa Cruz River,Southern Arizona1

Abstract: The authors develop a model framework that includes a set of hydrologic modules as a water resources management and planning tool for the upper Santa Cruz River near the Mexican border, Southern Arizona. The modules consist of: (1) stochastic generation of hourly precipitation scenarios that maintain the characteristics and variability of a 45‐year hourly precipitation record from a nearby rain gauge; (2) conceptual transformation of generated precipitation into daily streamflow using varied infiltration rates and estimates of the basin antecedent moisture conditions; and (3) surface‐water to ground‐water interaction for four downstream microbasins that accounts for alluvial ground‐water recharge, and ET and pumping losses. To maintain the large inter‐annual variability of streamflow as prevails in Southern Arizona, the model framework is constructed to produce three types of seasonal winter and summer categories of streamflow (i.e., wet, medium, or dry). Long‐term (i.e., 100 years) realizations (ensembles) are generated by the above described model framework that reflects two different regimes of inter annual variability. The first regime is that of the historic streamflow gauge record. The second regime is that of the tree ring reconstructed precipitation, which was derived for the study location. Generated flow ensembles for these two regimes are used to evaluate the risk that the regional four ground‐water microbasins decline below a preset storage threshold under different operational water utilization scenarios.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND SOIL MOISTURE DYNAMICS ON A SEMIARID PONDEROSA PINE HILLSLOPE1

ABSTRACT: Detailed measurements of soil moisture and ET in semiarid forest environments have not been widely reported in the literature. In this study, soil moisture and water balance components were measured over a four‐year period on a semiarid ponderosa pine hillslope, with evapotranspiration (ET) determined as the residual of measured precipitation, runoff, and change in soil moisture storage. ET accounts for approximately 95 percent of the water budget and has a distinctly bimodal annual pattern, with peaks occurring after spring snowmelt and during the late summer monsoon season, periods that coincide with high soil moisture. Weekly growing season ET rates determined by the hillslope water balance are found to be invariably below calculated potential rates. Normalized ET rates are linearly correlated (r²= 0.62) with soil moisture; therefore, a simple linear relation is proposed. Growing season soil moisture dynamics were modeled based on this relation. Results are in fair agreement (r²= 0.63) with the observed soil moisture data over the four growing seasons; however, for two dry summers with little surface runoff, much better results (r² > 0.90) were obtained.     

Spatial and Temporal Evaluation of Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Change in Three South Dakota Watersheds

This study analyzed changes in hydrology between two recent decades (1980s and 2010s) with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in three representative watersheds in South Dakota: Bad River, Skunk Creek, and Upper Big Sioux River watersheds. Two SWAT models were created over two discrete time periods (1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014) for each watershed. National Land Cover Datasets 1992 and 2011 were, respectively, ingested into 1981‐1990 and 2005‐2014 models, along with corresponding weather data, to enable comparison of annual and seasonal runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and percolation between these two decades. Simulation results based on the calibrated models showed that surface runoff, soil water content, water yield, and percolation increased in all three watersheds. Elevated ET was also apparent, except in Skunk Creek watershed. Differences in annual water balance components appeared to follow changes in land use more closely than variation in precipitation amounts, although seasonal variation in precipitation was reflected in seasonal surface runoff. Subbasin‐scale spatial analyses revealed noticeable increases in water balance components mostly in downstream parts of Bad River and Skunk Creek watersheds, and the western part of Upper Big Sioux River watershed. Results presented in this study provide some insight into recent changes in hydrological processes in South Dakota watersheds. Editor's note: This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Mechanistic Simulation of Tree Effects in an Urban Water Balance Model1

Abstract: A semidistributed, physical‐based Urban Forest Effects – Hydrology (UFORE‐Hydro) model was created to simulate and study tree effects on urban hydrology and guide management of urban runoff at the catchment scale. The model simulates hydrological processes of precipitation, interception, evaporation, infiltration, and runoff using data inputs of weather, elevation, and land cover along with nine channel, soil, and vegetation parameters. Weather data are pre‐processed by UFORE using Penman‐Monteith equations to provide potential evaporation terms for open water and vegetation. Canopy interception algorithms modified established routines to better account for variable density urban trees, short vegetation, and seasonal growth phenology. Actual evaporation algorithms allocate potential energy between leaf surface storage and transpiration from soil storage. Infiltration algorithms use a variable rain rate Green‐Ampt formulation and handle both infiltration excess and saturation excess ponding and runoff. Stream discharge is the sum of surface runoff and TOPMODEL‐based subsurface flow equations. Automated calibration routines that use observed discharge has been coupled to the model. Once calibrated, the model can examine how alternative tree management schemes impact urban runoff. UFORE‐Hydro model testing in the urban Dead Run catchment of Baltimore, Maryland, illustrated how trees significantly reduce runoff for low intensity and short duration precipitation events.     

The Comparative Accuracy of Two Hydrologic Models in Simulating Warm‐Season Runoff for Two Small,Hillslope Catchments

This article assesses the performance of two hydrologic models in simulating warm‐season runoff for two upland, low‐yield micro‐catchments near Coshocton, Ohio. The two models, namely the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and the Gridded Surface‐Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), were implemented with contrasting levels of complexity, with the former representing the catchments as lumped spatial units and computing evaporation only from standing water, and the latter incorporating fine‐scale variation in topography and soil properties and computing evapotranspiration from soil based on weather data. Our investigation began with uncalibrated model runs for 1990‐2003 except for 1994 using a priori parameter values. Then a set of calibration experiments were performed wherein the sensitivity of model performance to the length of calibration records was examined. Our results pointed to large errors associated with simulations from both models: even the calibrated models were unable to reproduce the seasonal and between‐catchment contrasts in runoff response. Using a priori parameter values, SWMM attained better results than GSSHA. However, with simple calibration, GSSHA outperformed SWMM in several respects. It was also found that extending the record of calibration rendered relatively minor changes to model performance. The practical and scientific implications of the findings are discussed.