MODELING THE EFFECT OF BRUSH CONTROL ON RANGELAND WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: With the increase in water demand in Texas, attention has turned to improving water yield by brush control on rangeland watersheds. Several hydrologic models have been developed for either farmland or rangeland. However, none of the models were specifically developed to assess the impact of brush control on rangeland water yield. Yet, modeling the impact of brush control on water yield needs to be considered if alternative techniques are to be compared. Two models, Ekalaka Rangeland Hydrology and Yield Model (ERHYM-II) and Simulator for Water Resources on Rural Basins (SWRRB) were selected. The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is used in both models to predict surface runoff from each rainfall event. The major differences between the ERHYM-II and SWRRB models are the evapotranspiration, soil water routing, and plant growth components. The models were evaluated on brush-dominated and chemically and mechanically brush-controlled range watersheds in Texas. Results indicated that both models were capable of simulating soil water and water yield from brush dominated and chemically brush-controlled range watersheds. The models were not able to predict water yield from the mechanically brush-controlled (root plowed) watershed with acceptable accuracy. The depressions that were caused by root plowing stored surface runoff and reduced water yield from the watershed. Information about the size of depressions was not available for further model evaluation.     

EFFECTS OF BASIN-SCALE TIMBER HARVEST ON WATER YIELD AND PEAK STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: Streamflow changes resulting from clearcut harvest of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) on a 2145 hectare drainage basin are evaluated by the paired watershed technique. Thirty years of continuous daily streamflow records were used in the analysis, including 10 pre-harvest and 20 post-harvest years of data. Regression analysis was used to estimate the effects of timber harvest on annual water yield and annual peak discharge. Removal of 14 million board feet of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) from about 526 hectares (25 percent of the basin) produced an average of 14.7 cm additional water yield per year, or an increase of 52 percent. Mean annual daily maximum discharge also increased by 1.6 cubic meters per second or 66 percent. Increases occurred primarily during the period of May through August with little or no change in wintertime streamflows. Results suggest that clearcutting conifers in relatively large watersheds (> 2000 ha) may produce significant increases in water yield and flooding. Implications of altered streamflow regimes are important for assessing the future ecological integrity of stream ecosystems subject to large-scale timber harvest and other disturbances that remove a substantial proportion of the forest cover.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

Dynamics of fisheries that affect the population growth rate coefficient

Conventional surplus production models indicate that destruction of fish populations by overfishing is difficult, if not impossible, but catastrophic declines in abundance of exploited populations are common. Surplus production models also do not predict large continuing fluctuations in yield, but large fluctuations in yield are common. Conventional surplus production models assume that fisheries do not impact the population's capacity to increase, but changes in age structure or a decrease in age-specific fecundity resulting from fishing can decrease the coefficient of increase. A surplus production model is developed in which fishing reduces the capacity of a population to increase; the model is applied to describe the fluctuations observed in yield of lake herring (Coregonus artedii) from the upper Great Lakes. The fisheries of the Great Lakes were decimated by the combined effects of heavy fishing and a changing environment. For some species, yield increased to high levels and then the fisheries collapsed; for other species, yield and effort fluctuated greatly.     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELED SURPLUS AND USGS-MEASURED DISCHARGE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN,LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: A one-layer decreasing-availability monthly water balance model is used to estimate monthly surplus that flows into the Lake Pontchartrain Basin from the Amite, Tickfaw, Natalbany, Tangipahoa, and Tchefuncte Rivers for water years 1949 through 1990. The modeled annual surplus for each drainage basin is compared to gauged annual discharge obtained from the United States Geological Survey. This provides an estimate of the differential success of the model over watersheds of various sizes, and also suggests appropriate adjustment factors to be used in future water balance analyses of similar basins in humid subtropical climate regions. Results show that annual surplus values agree well with the USGS values, after an annual adjustment of about 140 mm (11 to 28 percent of the basin surplus) is subtracted from the annual modeled totals to compensate for overestimation by the model. However, inter-annual variability is high in the annual cycles. Winter and spring discharges can also be modeled successfully.     

WATER BUDGET ANALYSIS FOR THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA DRAINAGE BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Water budget studies are essential for water resources and environmental management. In this study, a water budget analysis is presented for the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) in South Florida for the period from 1973 to 1991. The EAA is a highly productive irrigation/drainage basin that has a high water table and organic soils. Water quality problems are associated with the drainage discharge from the basin. During dry periods, supplemental water is used for irrigation and in rainy periods excess water with relatively higher phosphorus content is pumped out of the basin to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Elevated concentrations of phosphorus in the runoff/drainage that is discharged from the EAA basin have created water quality problems. The mean surface water inflow to the basin was 63,990 ha-m, and the outflow was 131,447 ha-m per year. On the average, supplemental surface water use was 47,411 ha-m, and runoff/drainage was 114,816 ha-m per year. The mean annual basin rainfall was 120.9 cm. A general trend in the decline of the wet season rainfall is observed.     

WATER YIELD IMPROVEMENT POTENTIAL BY VEGETATION MANAGEMENT ON WESTERN RANGELANDS1

Increasing water for onsite and offsite uses can be a viable objective for management of certain western rangelands. One approach utilizes water harvesting techniques to increase surface runoff by preventing or slowing infiltration of rain. An attractive alternative, where applicable, is to replace vegetation that uses much water with plants that use less so that more water percolates through the soil to streams and ground water. Most sites are too dry to increase water yield in this way; probably less than 1 percent of the western rangelands can be managed for this purpose. However, where annual precipitation exceeds about 450 mm (18 inches) and deep-rooted shrubs can be replaced by shallow-rooted grasses, there is potential to increase streamflows and to improve forage for livestock. Little or no increase can be expected by eradication of low-density brush and pinyon-juniper woodlands. Potentials for improving water yield are reviewed and summarized by vegetation types.     

HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from ?39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

RECHARGE ESTIMATES USING A GEOMORPHIC/DISTRIBUTED-PARAMETER SIMULATION APPROACH,AMARGOSA RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Average-annual volumes of runoff, evapotranspiration, channel loss, upland (interchannel) recharge, and total recharge were estimated for watersheds of 53 channel sites in the Amargosa River basin above Shoshone, California. Estimates were based on a water-balance approach combining field techniques for determining streamflow with distributed-parameter simulation models to calculate transmission losses of ephemeral streamflow and upland recharge resulting from high-magnitude, low-frequency precipitation events. Application of the water-balance models to the Amargosa River basin, Nevada and California, including part of the Nevada Test Site, suggests that about 20.5 million cubic meters of water recharges the ground-water reservoir above Shoshone annually. About 1.6 percent of precipitation becomes recharge basinwide. About 90 percent of the recharge is by transmission loss in channels, and the remainder occurs when infrequent storms yield sufficient precipitation that soil water percolates beyond the rooting zone and reaches the zone of saturation from interchannel areas. Highest rates of recharge are in headwaters of the Amargosa River and Fortymile Wash; the least recharge occurs in areas of relatively low precipitation in the lowermost Amargosa River watershed.     

BRUSHLAND MANAGEMENT FOR INCREASED WATER YIELD IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: Policies to encourage brush management are under consideration as a means to address the water scarcity issue in Texas. Additional water can be generated by treating some of the 100-million-plus acres of brush-infested rangelands in Texas. Evidence of water yield benefits are, however, tentative at this time. Economic investigations based on available data show the potential desirability of brush management but also show benefits to be critically dependent on added water yield, value, and cost-sharing policy. Wildlife, water rights, and environmental issues are also important considerations. The lack of research information on likely impacts makes it difficult to choose among alternative policies for encouraging brush management. More research on this potential opportunity is needed.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

DRAINAGE GENERATION AND WATER USE IN THE EVERGLADES AGRICULTURAL AREA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) covers 2,850 km² in area and is characterized by high water table and organic soil. The area is actively irrigated and drained as a function of weather conditions and crop status. Anthropogenic activities in the basin have resulted in nutrient-enriched drainage water that is discharged to Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades ecosystem. Water quantity and quality issues of the basin have become of increasing interest at local, state, and federal levels, so legislative and regulatory measures have been taken to improve water quality in discharges from the basin. In this study, simulation of hydrologic conditions and soil moisture were conducted using 100 years of daily synthetic rainfall data. From the simulations, the statistical distribution of half-month drainage discharge and supplemental water use in the basin was developed. The mean annual drainage/runoff was 49 cm, the mean supplemental water was 30 cm, and the mean annual a real rainfall was 122 cm. On the average, drainage exceeded supplemental water use in the months of June to September while from December to March drainage and supplemental water use were equivalent. Supplemental water use exceeded drainage in the months of October, November, April, and May. High drainage occurred in June and September; smallest drainage was in February. On the average, the highest supplemental water use occurred in May and November. The 10-year return period of annual drainage during wet and dry cycles were 60 cm and 38 cm per year, respectively. The semi-monthly drainage coefficient of variation (cv) is above 100 percent for the period from the second half of October to end of April. The cv is lower than 100 percent for the remaining season (wet season). The purpose of this paper is to present the magnitude, temporal, and frequency distribution of drainage runoff generation and supplemental water use in the EAA basin. Information on statistics of drainage will contribute to the optimization of the design and operation of drainage water treatment systems.     

RUNOFF IMPOUNDMENT FOR SUPPLEMENTAL IRRIGATION IN TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The current increase in the demand for water by municipal, industrial, and other users is likely to result in approximately one-third less water being available for agricultural use in Texas by the year 2000. As water supplies diminish, the rainfall excess needs to be used more efficiently. Large amounts of runoff occur in the eastern part of Texas that could be collected in small impoundments and utilized for crop production. Farmers in water-surplus basins or subbasins can apply for a permit to divert surface water into small on-farm impoundments to be used for supplemental irrigation. The costs for runoff collection and two supplemental irrigations, which amount to a total of 4 in./yr., are estimated to be approximately $60/acre/year. Depending upon the crop produced, the estimated increase in gross income from supplemental irrigation ranges from about $80 to more than $100 per acre annually.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER YIELD IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on water yield are examined in the Upper Wind River Basin. This is a high‐elevation, mountain basin with a snowfall/snowmelt dominated stream‐flow hydrograph. A variety of physiographic conditions are represented in the rangeland, coniferous forests, and high‐elevation alpine regions. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model the baseline input time series data and climate change scenarios. Five hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, CO₂, radiation, and humidity) are examined using sensitivity tests of individual and coupled variables with a constant change and coupled variables with a monthly change. Results indicate that the most influential variable on annual water yield is precipitation; and, the most influential variable on the timing of streamflow is temperature. Carbon dioxide, radiation, and humidity each noticeably impact water yield, but less significantly. The coupled variable analyses represent a more realistic climate change regime and reflect the combined response of the basin to each variable; for example, increased temperature offsets the effects of increased precipitation and magnifies the effects of decreased precipitation. This paper shows that the hydrologic response to climate change depends largely on the hydroclimatic variables examined and that each variable has a unique effect (e.g., magnitude, timing) on water yield.     

A COMPARISON OF TWO METHODS FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION FOR RESERVOIR OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Two major objectives in operating the multireservoir system of the Upper Colorado River basin are maximization of hydroelectric power production and maximization of the reliability of annual water supply. These two objectives conflict. Optimal operation of the reservoir system to achieve both is unattainable. This paper seeks the best compromise solution for an aggregated reservoir as a surrogate of the multireservoir system by using two methods: the constraint method and the method of combined stochastic and deterministic modeling. Both methods are used to derive the stationary optimal operating policy for the aggregated reservoir by using stochastic dynamic programming but with different objective functions and minimum monthly release constraints. The resulting operating policies are then used in simulated operation of the reservoir with historical inflow records to evaluate their relative effectiveness. The results show that the policy obtained from the combination method would yield more hydropower production and higher reliability of annual water supply than that from the constraint-method policy.     

Effective Efficiency as a Tool for Sustainable Water Resources Management1

Abstract: The sufficiency and usefulness of Effective Efficiency (EE) as a water resources index is shown through conceptual formulation of a generalized EE and practical applications. Two EE models are proposed: one is based on water quantity and the other on quantity and quality, with the possibility of considering water reuse (recycling) in both. These models were developed for two scales: the first is called Project EE and the second Basin EE. The latter gives the influence of the project on the water resources systems of the basin while the former does not make such connection to the whole basin. Such considerations give proper signals as to the adequacy of any intervention to increase efficiency. A crucial distinction is made between depletion and diversion water savings. Classical Efficiency (CE) models are analyzed and compared with the various EE models. CE results in values that are less than EE because of not considering water reuse and water quality in its calculation. Some authors, pointing to these problems – particularly the first problem – have advocated the use of hydrological “fractions” instead of efficiency concepts. This paper defends the use of a proper efficiency model such as EE and suggests putting an end to the use of the CE indicators. To test the models, they are applied to five cases of irrigation and city water use in the United States and Egypt. The analysis of the results demonstrates all the points mentioned above and the potential of the EE models to adequately describe the water resources efficiency and sustainability at a location.     

PROJECTED INCREASES IN MUNICIPAL WATER USE IN THE GREAT LAKES DUE TO CO2-INDUCED CLIMATIC CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: Two scenarios of CO₂-induced climatic change are used to estimate changes in water use for a number of municipalities in the Great Lakes region of Canada and the United States. Both scenarios, based on General Circulation Models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), project warmer temperatures for the region. Using regression models based on monthly potential evapotranspiration for individual cities, it is projected that annual per capita water use will increase by a small amount, which will probably have only a marginal effect on water supplies in the Great Lakes basin. This method could also be used to assess the potential impacts of CO₂-induced climatic change on water use by the agriculture and power sectors, as well as the effectiveness of water policy initiatives, such as price changes. More work is needed to project water use during peak periods (warm dry spells), which may occur more frequently in a 2 × CO₂ climate in this region.     

TRANSIENT RESPONSE FUNCTIONS FOR CONJUNCTIVE WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN,IDAHO1

ABSTRACT: Increasing demands on western water are causing a mounting need for the conjunctive management of surface water and ground water resources. Under western water law, the senior water rights holder has priority over the junior water rights holder in times of water shortage. Water managers have been reluctant to conjunctively manage surface water and ground water resources because of the difficulty of quantification of the impacts to surface water resources from ground water stresses. Impacts from ground water use can take years to propagate through an aquifer system. Prediction of the degree of impact to surface water resources over time and the spatial distribution of impacts is very difficult. Response functions mathematically describe the relationship between a unit ground water stress applied at a specific location and stream depletion or aquifer water level change elsewhere in the system. Response functions can be used to help quantify the spatial and temporal impacts to surface water resources caused by ground water pumping. This paper describes the theory of response functions and presents an application of transient response functions in the Snake River Plain, Idaho. Transient response functions can be used to facilitate the conjunctive management of surface and ground water not only in the eastern Snake River Plain basin, but also in similar basins throughout the western United States.