Forecasting of particulate matter time series using wavelet analysis and wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model in Taiyuan,China

Particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM₁₀) forecasting is difficult because of the uncertainties in describing the emission and meteorological fields. This paper proposed a wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the short-term series of the PM₁₀ concentrations. It was evaluated by experiments using a 10-year data set of daily PM₁₀ concentrations from 4 stations located in Taiyuan, China. The results indicated the following: (1) PM₁₀ concentrations of Taiyuan had a decreasing trend during 2005 to 2012 but increased in 2013. PM₁₀ concentrations had an obvious seasonal fluctuation related to coal-fired heating in winter and early spring. (2) Spatial differences among the four stations showed that the PM₁₀ concentrations in industrial and heavily trafficked areas were higher than those in residential and suburb areas. (3) Wavelet analysis revealed that the trend variation and the changes of the PM₁₀ concentration of Taiyuan were complicated. (4) The proposed wavelet-ARIMA model could be efficiently and successfully applied to the PM₁₀ forecasting field. Compared with the traditional ARMA/ARIMA methods, this wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA method could effectively reduce the forecasting error, improve the prediction accuracy, and realize multiple-time-scale prediction.

Implications: Wavelet analysis can filter noisy signals and identify the variation trend and the fluctuation of the PM₁₀ time-series data. Wavelet decomposition and reconstruction reduce the nonstationarity of the PM₁₀ time-series data, and thus improve the accuracy of the prediction. This paper proposed a wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA model to forecast the PM₁₀ time series. Compared with the traditional ARMA/ARIMA method, this wavelet-ARMA/ARIMA method could effectively reduce the forecasting error, improve the prediction accuracy, and realize multiple-time-scale prediction. The proposed model could be efficiently and successfully applied to the PM₁₀ forecasting field.     

The air quality forecast rote: Recent changes and future challenges

Air quality forecasting is a recent development, with most programs initiated only in the last 20 years. During the last decade, forecast preparation procedure—the forecast rote—has changed dramatically. This paper summarizes the unique challenges posed by air quality forecasting, details the current forecast rote, and analyzes prospects for future improvements. Because air quality forecasts must diagnose and predict several pollutants and their precursors in addition to standard meteorological variables, it is, compared with weather forecasts, a higher-uncertainty forecast. Forecasters seek to contain the uncertainty by “anchoring” the forecast, using an a priori field, and then “adjusting” the forecast using additional information. The air quality a priori, or first guess, field is a blend of past, current, and near-term future observations of the pollutants of interest, on both local and regional scales, and is typically coupled with predicted air parcel trajectories. Until recently, statistical methods, based on long-term training data sets, were used to adjust the first guess. However, reductions in precursor emissions in the United States, beginning in the late 1990s and continuing to the present, eroded the stationarity assumption for the training data sets and degraded forecast skill. Beginning in the mid-2000s, output from modified numerical air quality prediction (NAQP) models, originally developed to test pollution control strategies, became available in near real time for forecast support. The current adjustment process begins with the analyses and postprocessing of individual NAQP models and their ad hoc ensembles, often in concert with new statistical techniques. The final adjustment step uses forecaster expertise to assess the impact of mesoscale features not resolved by the NAQP models. It is expected that advances in model resolution, chemical data assimilation, and the formulation of emissions fields will improve mesoscale predictions by NAQP models and drive future changes in the forecast rote.

Implications: Routine air quality forecasts are now issued for nearly all the major U.S. metropolitan areas. Methods of forecast preparation—the forecast rote—have changed significantly in the last decade. Numerical air quality models have matured and are now an indispensable part of the forecasting process. All forecasting methods, particularly statistically based models, must be continually calibrated to account for ongoing local- and regional-scale emission reductions.     

A novel bagging ensemble approach for predicting summertime ground-level ozone concentration

Ozone pollution appears as a major air quality issue, e.g. for the protection of human health and vegetation. Formation of ground level ozone is a complex photochemical phenomenon and involves numerous intricate factors most of which are interrelated with each other. Machine learning techniques can be adopted to predict the ground level ozone. The main objective of the present study is to develop the state-of-the-art ensemble bagging approach to model the summer time ground level ozone in an industrial area comprising a hazardous waste management facility. In this study, the feasibility of using ensemble model with seven meteorological parameters as input variables to predict the surface level O3 concentration. Multilayer perceptron, RTree, REPTree, and Random forest were employed as the base learners. The error measures used for checking the performance of each model includes IoAd, R2, and PEP. The model results were validated against an independent test data set. Bagged random forest predicted the ground level ozone better with higher Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.93. This study scaffolded the current research gap in big data analysis identified with air pollutant prediction.

Implications: The main focus of this paper is to model the summer time ground level O₃ concentration in an Industrial area comprising of hazardous waste management facility. Comparison study was made between the base classifiers and the ensemble classifiers. Most of the conventional models can well predict the average concentrations. In this case the peak concentrations are of importance as it has serious effect on human health and environment. The models developed should also be homoscedastic.     

Public health and components of particulate matter: The changing assessment of black carbon

In 2012, the WHO classified diesel emissions as carcinogenic, and its European branch suggested creating a public health standard for airborne black carbon (BC). In 2011, EU researchers found that life expectancy could be extended four to nine times by reducing a unit of BC, vs reducing a unit of PM_2.5. Only recently could such determinations be made. Steady improvements in research methodologies now enable such judgments.

In this Critical Review, we survey epidemiological and toxicological literature regarding carbonaceous combustion emissions, as research methodologies improved over time. Initially, we focus on studies of BC, diesel, and traffic emissions in the Western countries (where daily urban BC emissions are mainly from diesels). We examine effects of other carbonaceous emissions, e.g., residential burning of biomass and coal without controls, mainly in developing countries.

Throughout the 1990s, air pollution epidemiology studies rarely included species not routinely monitored. As additional PM_2.5. chemical species, including carbonaceous species, became more widely available after 1999, they were gradually included in epidemiological studies. Pollutant species concentrations which more accurately reflected subject exposure also improved models.

Natural “interventions” - reductions in emissions concurrent with fuel changes or increased combustion efficiency; introduction of ventilation in highway tunnels; implementation of electronic toll payment systems – demonstrated health benefits of reducing specific carbon emissions. Toxicology studies provided plausible biological mechanisms by which different PM species, e.g., carbonaceous species, may cause harm, aiding interpretation of epidemiological studies.

Our review finds that BC from various sources appears to be causally involved in all-cause, lung cancer, and cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and perhaps adverse birth and nervous system effects. We recommend that the U.S. EPA rubric for judging possible causality of PM_2.5. mass concentrations, be used to assess which PM_2.5. species are most harmful to public health.

Implications: Black carbon (BC) and correlated co-emissions appear causally related with all-cause, cardiovascular, and lung cancer mortality, and perhaps with adverse birth outcomes and central nervous system effects. Such findings are recent, since widespread monitoring for BC is also recent. Helpful epidemiological advances (using many health relevant PM_2.5 species in models; using better measurements of subject exposure) have also occurred. “Natural intervention” studies also demonstrate harm from partly combusted carbonaceous emissions. Toxicology studies consistently find biological mechanisms explaining how such emissions can cause these adverse outcomes. A consistent mechanism for judging causality for different PM_2.5 species is suggested.

A list of acronyms will be found at the end of the article.     

Air quality mapping using GIS and economic evaluation of health impact for Mumbai City,India

Mumbai, a highly populated city in India, has been selected for air quality mapping and assessment of health impact using monitored air quality data. Air quality monitoring networks in Mumbai are operated by National Environment Engineering Research Institute (NEERI), Maharashtra Pollution Control Board (MPCB), and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). A monitoring station represents air quality at a particular location, while we need spatial variation for air quality management. Here, air quality monitored data of NEERI and BMC were spatially interpolated using various inbuilt interpolation techniques of ArcGIS. Inverse distance weighting (IDW), Kriging (spherical and Gaussian), and spline techniques have been applied for spatial interpolation for this study. The interpolated results of air pollutants sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) were compared with air quality data of MPCB in the same region. Comparison of results showed good agreement for predicted values using IDW and Kriging with observed data. Subsequently, health impact assessment of a ward was carried out based on total population of the ward and air quality monitored data within the ward. Finally, health cost within a ward was estimated on the basis of exposed population. This study helps to estimate the valuation of health damage due to air pollution.

Implications: Operating more air quality monitoring stations for measurement of air quality is highly resource intensive in terms of time and cost. The appropriate spatial interpolation techniques can be used to estimate concentration where air quality monitoring stations are not available. Further, health impact assessment for the population of the city and estimation of economic cost of health damage due to ambient air quality can help to make rational control strategies for environmental management. The total health cost for Mumbai city for the year 2012, with a population of 12.4 million, was estimated as USD8000 million.     

Development and field validation of a community-engaged particulate matter air quality monitoring network in Imperial,California, USA

The Imperial County Community Air Monitoring Network was developed as part of a community-engaged research study to provide real-time particulate matter (PM) air quality information at a high spatial resolution in Imperial County, California. The network augmented the few existing regulatory monitors and increased monitoring near susceptible populations. Monitors were both calibrated and field validated, a key component of evaluating the quality of the data produced by the community monitoring network. This paper examines the performance of a customized version of the low-cost Dylos optical particle counter used in the community air monitors compared with both PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 and <10 μm, respectively) federal equivalent method (FEM) beta-attenuation monitors (BAMs) and federal reference method (FRM) gravimetric filters at a collocation site in the study area. A conversion equation was developed that estimates particle mass concentrations from the native Dylos particle counts, taking into account relative humidity. The R² for converted hourly averaged Dylos mass measurements versus a PM_2.5 BAM was 0.79 and that versus a PM₁₀ BAM was 0.78. The performance of the conversion equation was evaluated at six other sites with collocated PM_2.5 environmental beta-attenuation monitors (EBAMs) located throughout Imperial County. The agreement of the Dylos with the EBAMs was moderate to high (R² = 0.35–0.81).

Implications: The performance of low-cost air quality sensors in community networks is currently not well documented. This paper provides a methodology for quantifying the performance of a next-generation Dylos PM sensor used in the Imperial County Community Air Monitoring Network. This air quality network provides data at a much finer spatial and temporal resolution than has previously been possible with government monitoring efforts. Once calibrated and validated, these high-resolution data may provide more information on susceptible populations, assist in the identification of air pollution hotspots, and increase community awareness of air pollution.     

Application of an integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling tool for source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants for air quality management: A case study in the urban area of Benxi,China

In this study, the authors endeavored to develop an effective framework for improving local urban air quality on meso-micro scales in cities in China that are experiencing rapid urbanization. Within this framework, the integrated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/CALPUFF modeling system was applied to simulate the concentration distributions of typical pollutants (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm [PM₁₀], sulfur dioxide [SO₂], and nitrogen oxides [NO_x]) in the urban area of Benxi. Statistical analyses were performed to verify the credibility of this simulation, including the meteorological fields and concentration fields. The sources were then categorized using two different classification methods (the district-based and type-based methods), and the contributions to the pollutant concentrations from each source category were computed to provide a basis for appropriate control measures. The statistical indexes showed that CALMET had sufficient ability to predict the meteorological conditions, such as the wind fields and temperatures, which provided meteorological data for the subsequent CALPUFF run. The simulated concentrations from CALPUFF showed considerable agreement with the observed values but were generally underestimated. The spatial-temporal concentration pattern revealed that the maximum concentrations tended to appear in the urban centers and during the winter. In terms of their contributions to pollutant concentrations, the districts of Xihu, Pingshan, and Mingshan all affected the urban air quality to different degrees. According to the type-based classification, which categorized the pollution sources as belonging to the Bengang Group, large point sources, small point sources, and area sources, the source apportionment showed that the Bengang Group, the large point sources, and the area sources had considerable impacts on urban air quality. Finally, combined with the industrial characteristics, detailed control measures were proposed with which local policy makers could improve the urban air quality in Benxi. In summary, the results of this study showed that this framework has credibility for effectively improving urban air quality, based on the source apportionment of atmospheric pollutants.

Implications: The authors endeavored to build up an effective framework based on the integrated WRF/CALPUFF to improve the air quality in many cities on meso-micro scales in China. Via this framework, the integrated modeling tool is accurately used to study the characteristics of meteorological fields, concentration fields, and source apportionments of pollutants in target area. The impacts of classified sources on air quality together with the industrial characteristics can provide more effective control measures for improving air quality.

Through the case study, the technical framework developed in this study, particularly the source apportionment, could provide important data and technical support for policy makers to assess air pollution on the scale of a city in China or even the world.     

Association of PM2.5 pollution with the pattern of human activity: A case study of a developed city in eastern China

Recently, air pollution has attracted a substantial amount of attention in China, which can be influenced by a variety of factors, but the association between air pollution and human activity is not quite clear. Based on real-time online data (January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2014) of air pollution and meteorology reported by official sites, and demographic, economic, and environmental reform data in a statistical yearbook, the influences of meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation intensity, and wind force) and human activities on PM_2.5 pollution were explored. After correlation analysis, logistic regression analysis, and a nonparametric test, weak negative correlations between temperature and PM_2.5 pollution were found. In most cases, festival and morning peak hours were protection and risk factors of PM_2.5 pollution, respectively. In addition, government actions, such as an afforestation project and increasing financial expenditure for energy saving and environmental protection, could greatly contribute to alleviating pollution of PM_2.5. The findings could help officials formulate effective laws and regulations, and then PM_2.5 pollution related to the pattern of human activity would be ameliorated.

Implications: Most of the time, festival and morning peak hours are protection and risk factors for PM_2.5 pollution, respectively. Increasing the percentage of afforestation area and financial expenditure for energy saving and environmental protection could significantly reduce PM_2.5 pollution. The findings can help officials formulate effective laws and regulations, and then PM_2.5 pollution related to the pattern of human activity, especially government action, will be ameliorated.     

In-vehicle carbon dioxide concentration in commuting cars in Bangkok,Thailand

It is known that in-vehicle carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration tends to increase due to occupant exhalation when the HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) air is in recirculation mode. Field experiments were conducted to measure CO₂ concentration during typical commute in Bangkok, Thailand. The measured concentrations agreed with the concentration predicted using first-order mass balance equation, in both recirculating and outside air modes. The long-term transient decay of the concentration when the vehicle was parked and the HVAC system was turned off was also studied. This decay was found to follow Fickian diffusion process. The paper also provides useful operational details of the automotive HVAC system and fresh air ventilation exchange between cabin interior and exterior.

Implications: Drivers in tropical Asian countries typically use HVAC recirculation mode in their automobiles. This behavior leads to excessive buildup of cabin CO₂ concentration levels. The paper describes the CO₂ buildup in a typical commute in Bangkok, Thailand. Auto manufacturers can potentially take measures to alleviate such high concentration levels. The paper also discusses the diffusion of CO₂ through the vehicle envelope, an area that has never been investigated before.     

Assessment of personal integrated exposure to fine particulate matter of urban residents in Hong Kong

Metropolitan residents are concerned about their exposure to airborne pollutants. But establishing these exposures is challenging. A compact personal exposure kit (PEK) was developed to evaluate personal integrated exposure (PIE) from time-resolved data to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) in five microenvironments, including office, home, commuting, other indoor activities (other than home and office), and outdoor activities experienced both on weekdays and weekends. The study was conducted in Hong Kong. The PEK measured PM_2.5, reported location and several other factors, stored collected data, as well as reported the data back to the investigators using global system for mobile communication (GSM) telemetry. Generally, PM_2.5 concentrations in office microenvironment were found to be the smallest (13.0 μg/m³), whereas the largest PM_2.5 concentration microenvironments were experienced during outdoor activities (54.4 μg/m³). Participants spent more than 85% of their time indoors, including in offices, homes, and other public indoor venues. On average, 42% and 81% of the time were spent in homes, which contributed 52% and 79% of PIE (during weekdays and weekends, respectively), suggesting that improvement of air quality in homes may reduce overall exposures and indicating the need for actions to mitigate possible public health burdens in Hong Kong. This study also found that various indoor/outdoor microenvironments experienced by urban office workers cannot be accurately represented by general urban air quality data reported from the regulatory monitoring. Such personalized air quality information, especially while in transit or in offices and homes, may provide improved information on population exposures to air pollution.

Implications: A newly developed personal exposure kit (PEK) was used to monitor PM_2.5 exposure of metropolitan citizens in their daily life. Different microenvironments and time durations caused various personal integrated exposure (PIE). The stationary monitoring method for PIE was also compared and evaluated with PEK. Positive protection actions can be taken after understanding the major contribution to PM_2.5 exposure.     

Power models and average ship parameter effects on marine emissions inventories

Maritime greenhouse gas emissions are projected to increase significantly by 2050, highlighting the need for reliable inventories as a first step in analyzing ship emission control policies. The impact of ship power models on marine emissions inventories has garnered little attention, with most inventories employing simple, load-factor-based models to estimate ship power consumption. The availability of more expansive ship activity data provides the opportunity to investigate the inventory impacts of adopting complex power models. Furthermore, ship parameter fields can be sparsely populated in ship registries, making gap-filling techniques and averaging processes necessary. Therefore, it is important to understand of the impact of averaged ship parameters on ship power and emission estimations. This paper examines power estimation differences between results from two complex, resistance-based and two simple, load-factor-based power models on a baseline inventory with unique ship parameters. These models are additionally analyzed according to their sensitivities toward average ship parameters. Automated Identification System (AIS) data from a fleet of commercial marine vessels operating over a 6-month period off the coast of the southwestern United States form the basis of the analysis. To assess the inventory impacts of using averaged ship parameters, fleet-level carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are calculated using ship parameter data averaged across ship types and their subtype size classes. Each of the four ship power models are used to generate four CO₂ emissions inventories, and results are compared with baseline estimates for the same sample fleet where no averaged values were used. The results suggest that a change in power model has a relatively high impact on emission estimates. They also indicate relatively little sensitivity, by all power models, to the use of ship characteristics averaged by ship and subtype.

Implications: Commercial marine vessel emissions inventories were calculated using four different models for ship engine power. The calculations used 6 months of Automated Identification System (AIS) data from a sample of 248 vessels as input data. The results show that more detailed, resistance-based models tend to estimate a lower propulsive power, and thus lower emissions, for ships than traditional load-factor-based models. Additionally, it was observed that emission calculations using averaged values for physical ship parameters had a minimal impact on the resulting emissions inventories.     

Characterization of temporal variations in landfill gas components inside an open solid waste dump site in Sri Lanka

A long-term monitoring of composition of landfill gases in the region with high rainfall was conducted using an argon assay in order to discuss air intrusion into the dump site. Gas samples were taken from vertical gas monitoring pipes installed along transects at two sections (called new and old) of an abandoned waste dump site in Sri Lanka. N₂O concentrations varied especially widely, by more than three orders of magnitude (0.046–140 ppmv). The nitrogen/argon ratio of landfill gas was normally higher than that of fresh air, implying that denitrification occurred in the dump site. Argon assays indicate that both N₂ and N₂O production occurred inside waste and more significantly in the old section. The Ar assay would help for evaluations of N₂O emission in developing countries.

Implications: A long-term monitoring of composition of landfill gases in the region with high rainfall was conducted using an argon assay in order to discuss air intrusion into the dump site. Argon assays indicate that both N₂ and N₂O production occurred inside waste and more significantly in the old section.     

Mapping air quality zones for coastal urban centers

This study presents a new method that incorporates modern air dispersion models allowing local terrain and land–sea breeze effects to be considered along with political and natural boundaries for more accurate mapping of air quality zones (AQZs) for coastal urban centers. This method uses local coastal wind patterns and key urban air pollution sources in each zone to more accurately calculate air pollutant concentration statistics. The new approach distributes virtual air pollution sources within each small grid cell of an area of interest and analyzes a puff dispersion model for a full year’s worth of 1-hr prognostic weather data. The difference of wind patterns in coastal and inland areas creates significantly different skewness (S) and kurtosis (K) statistics for the annually averaged pollutant concentrations at ground level receptor points for each grid cell. Plotting the S-K data highlights grouping of sources predominantly impacted by coastal winds versus inland winds. The application of the new method is demonstrated through a case study for the nation of Kuwait by developing new AQZs to support local air management programs. The zone boundaries established by the S-K method were validated by comparing MM5 and WRF prognostic meteorological weather data used in the air dispersion modeling, a support vector machine classifier was trained to compare results with the graphical classification method, and final zones were compared with data collected from Earth observation satellites to confirm locations of high-exposure-risk areas. The resulting AQZs are more accurate and support efficient management strategies for air quality compliance targets effected by local coastal microclimates.

Implications: A novel method to determine air quality zones in coastal urban areas is introduced using skewness (S) and kurtosis (K) statistics calculated from grid concentrations results of air dispersion models. The method identifies land–sea breeze effects that can be used to manage local air quality in areas of similar microclimates.     

Use of a gas chromatography–mass spectrometry organic aerosol monitor for in-field detection of fine particulate organic compounds in source apportionment

A study was conducted on the Brigham Young University campus during January and February 2015 to identify winter-time sources of fine particulate material in Utah Valley, Utah. Fine particulate mass and components and related gas-phase species were all measured on an hourly averaged basis. Light scattering was also measured during the study. Included in the sampling was the first-time source apportionment application of a new monitoring instrument for the measurement of fine particulate organic marker compounds on an hourly averaged basis. Organic marker compounds measured included levoglucosan, dehydroabietic acid, stearic acid, pyrene, and anthracene. A total of 248 hourly averaged data sets were available for a positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of sources of both primary and secondary fine particulate material. A total of nine factors were identified. The presence of wood smoke emissions was associated with levoglucosan, dehydroabietic acid, and pyrene markers. Fine particulate secondary nitrate, secondary organic material, and wood smoke accounted for 90% of the fine particulate material. Fine particle light scattering was dominated by sources associated with wood smoke and secondary ammonium nitrate with associated modeled fine particulate water.

Implications: The identification of sources and secondary formation pathways leading to observed levels of PM_2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynmaic diameter <2.5 μm) is important in making regulatory decisions on pollution control. The use of organic marker compounds in this assessment has proven useful; however, data obtained on a daily, or longer, sampling schedule limit the value of the information because diurnal changes associated with emissions and secondary aerosol formation cannot be identified. A new instrument, the gas chromtography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) organic aerosol monitor, allows for the determination on these compounds on an hourly averaged basis. The demonstrated potential value of hourly averaged data in a source apportionment analysis indicates that significant improvement in the data used for making regulatory decisions is possible.     

Autonomous mobile platform for monitoring air emissions from industrial and municipal wastewater ponds

Significant amounts of volatile organic compounds and greenhouse gases are generated from wastewater lagoons and tailings ponds in Alberta, Canada. Accurate measurements of these air pollutants and greenhouse gases are needed to support management and regulatory decisions. A mobile platform was developed to measure air emissions from tailings pond in the oil sands region of Alberta. The mobile platform was tested in 2015 in a municipal wastewater treatment lagoon. With a flux chamber and a CO₂/CH₄ sensor on board, the mobile platform was able to measure CO₂ and CH₄ emissions over two days at two different locations in the pond. Flux emission rates of CO₂ and CH₄ that were measured over the study period suggest the presence of aerobic and anaerobic zones in the wastewater treatment lagoon. The study demonstrated the capabilities of the mobile platform in measuring fugitive air emissions and identified the potential for the applications in air and water quality monitoring programs.

Implications: The Mobile Platform demonstrated in this study has the ability to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fugitive sources such as municipal wastewater lagoons. This technology can be used to measure emission fluxes from tailings ponds with better detection of spatial and temporal variations of fugitive emissions. Additional air and water sampling equipment could be added to the mobile platform for a broad range of air and water quality studies in the oil sands region of Alberta.     

Characterization of particulate emissions from Australian open-cut coal mines: Toward improved emission estimates

Given the significance of mining as a source of particulates, accurate characterization of emissions is important for the development of appropriate emission estimation techniques for use in modeling predictions and to inform regulatory decisions. The currently available emission estimation methods for Australian open-cut coal mines relate primarily to total suspended particulates and PM₁₀ (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm), and limited data are available relating to the PM_2.5 (<2.5 μm) size fraction. To provide an initial analysis of the appropriateness of the currently available emission estimation techniques, this paper presents results of sampling completed at three open-cut coal mines in Australia. The monitoring data demonstrate that the particulate size fraction varies for different mining activities, and that the region in which the mine is located influences the characteristics of the particulates emitted to the atmosphere. The proportion of fine particulates in the sample increased with distance from the source, with the coarse fraction being a more significant proportion of total suspended particulates close to the source of emissions. In terms of particulate composition, the results demonstrate that the particulate emissions are predominantly sourced from naturally occurring geological material, and coal comprises less than 13% of the overall emissions. The size fractionation exhibited by the sampling data sets is similar to that adopted in current Australian emission estimation methods but differs from the size fractionation presented in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency methodology. Development of region-specific emission estimation techniques for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from open-cut coal mines is necessary to allow accurate prediction of particulate emissions to inform regulatory decisions and for use in modeling predictions.

Implications: Development of region-specific emission estimation techniques for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from open-cut coal mines is necessary to allow accurate prediction of particulate emissions to inform regulatory decisions and for use in modeling predictions. Comprehensive air quality monitoring was undertaken, and corresponding recommendations were provided.     

Long-term dust aerosol production from natural sources in Iceland

Iceland is a volcanic island in the North Atlantic Ocean with maritime climate. In spite of moist climate, large areas are with limited vegetation cover where >40% of Iceland is classified with considerable to very severe erosion and 21% of Iceland is volcanic sandy deserts. Not only do natural emissions from these sources influenced by strong winds affect regional air quality in Iceland (“Reykjavik haze”), but dust particles are transported over the Atlantic ocean and Arctic Ocean >1000 km at times. The aim of this paper is to place Icelandic dust production area into international perspective, present long-term frequency of dust storm events in northeast Iceland, and estimate dust aerosol concentrations during reported dust events.

Meteorological observations with dust presence codes and related visibility were used to identify the frequency and the long-term changes in dust production in northeast Iceland. There were annually 16.4 days on average with reported dust observations on weather stations within the northeastern erosion area, indicating extreme dust plume activity and erosion within the northeastern deserts, even though the area is covered with snow during the major part of winter. During the 2000s the highest occurrence of dust events in six decades was reported. We have measured saltation and Aeolian transport during dust/volcanic ash storms in Iceland, which give some of the most intense wind erosion events ever measured.

Icelandic dust affects the ecosystems over much of Iceland and causes regional haze. It is likely to affect the ecosystems of the oceans around Iceland, and it brings dust that lowers the albedo of the Icelandic glaciers, increasing melt-off due to global warming. The study indicates that Icelandic dust may contribute to the Arctic air pollution.

Implications: Long-term records of meteorological dust observations from Northeast Iceland indicate the frequency of dust events from Icelandic deserts. The research involves a 60-year period and provides a unique perspective of the dust aerosol production from natural sources in the sub-Arctic Iceland. The amounts are staggering, and with this paper, it is clear that Icelandic dust sources need to be considered among major global dust sources. This paper presents the dust events directly affecting the air quality in the Arctic region.     

Modeling and optimization of wet flue gas desulfurization system based on a hybrid modeling method

Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) is one of the main air pollutants from many industries. Most coal-fired power plants in China use wet flue gas desulfurization (WFGD) as the main method for SO₂ removal. Presently, the operating of WFGD lacks accurate modeling method to predict outlet concentration, let alone optimization method. As a result, operating parameters and running status of WFGD are adjusted based on the experience of the experts, which brings about the possibility of material waste and excessive emissions. In this paper, a novel WFGD model combining a mathematical model and an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to forecast SO₂ emissions. Operation data from a 1000-MW coal-fired unit was collected and divided into two separated sets for model training and validation. The hybrid model consisting a mechanism model and a 9-input ANN had the best performance on both training and validation sets in terms of RMSE (root mean square error) and MRE (mean relative error) and was chosen as the model used in optimization. A comprehensive cost model of WFGD was also constructed to estimate real-time operation cost. Based on the hybrid WFGD model and cost model, a particle swarm optimization (PSO)-based solver was designed to derive the cost-effective set points under different operation conditions. The optimization results demonstrated that the optimized operating parameters could effectively keep the SO₂ emissions within the standard, whereas the SO₂ emissions was decreased by 30.79% with less than 2% increase of total operating cost.

Implications: Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) is one of the main pollutants generated during coal combustion in power plants, and wet flue gas desulfurization (WFGD) is the main facility for SO₂ removal. A hybrid model combining SO₂ removal mathematical model with data-driven model achieves more accurate prediction of outlet concentration. Particle swarm optimization with a penalty function efficiently solves the optimization problem of WFGD subject to operation cost under multiple operation conditions. The proposed model and optimization method is able to direct the optimized operation of WFGD with enhanced emission and economic performance.     

Comparison of current Federal Reference Methods for ambient lead measurements adjacent to a secondary lead smelter

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reduced their National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for lead (Pb) an order of magnitude to a concentration level of 0.15 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m³) when the new rule was promulgated in 2008. At that time, the possibility of revising the Pb sampling method from total suspended particulate (TSP) to particulate matter less than or equal to 10 µm in diameter (PM₁₀) was considered due to potential measurement bias of the Pb-TSP monitoring technique. The New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) has been operating source-orientated colocated TSP and PM₁₀ monitors documenting ambient air lead (Pb) concentrations since 2011 at a site adjacent to a secondary Pb smelter in Wallkill, New York. The colocated Wallkill data show a very strong correlation between the readings recorded by these two sampling techniques. After the range of the variability in the individual Pb-PM₁₀/Pb-TSP ratios was reduced by using a 0.005 µg/m³ concentration cut point, because of the concerns about the measurements at low concentrations, an adjustment factor (AF) of 1.49 was calculated using the remaining data set. This AF can be used to estimate Pb-TSP concentrations from Pb-PM₁₀ readings at this Wallkill source-orientated location. It was stated by the EPA that there is only a limited data set in situations where Pb-TSP and Pb-PM₁₀ are colocated, especially for those sites considered to be source-oriented, so the analyses performed and summarized herein for the Wallkill colocated airborne Pb concentration data add to that limited data set.

Implications: These data analyses add to the limited data set in situations where Pb-TSP and Pb-PM₁₀ are colocated to help refine the derivation of a site-specific adjustment factor for estimating TSP Pb concentrations from measured PM₁₀ Pb concentrations. This could assist the EPA in transitioning away from the use of the Pb-TSP monitoring technique, with its indicated measurement bias, for the Pb NAAQS to the use of Pb-PM₁₀ instead. An adjustment factor of 1.49 was calculated that could be used to estimate Pb-TSP concentrations from Pb-PM₁₀ values collected around this source-orientated location.     

Detection of anomalous nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentration in urban air of India using proximity and clustering methods

Owing to accurate future air quality estimates, need for detecting the anomalously high increase in concentration of pollutants cannot be adjourned. Plentiful approaches were proposed in the past to substantially determine the abnormal conditions, but most of the statistical approaches were computationally expensive and ignored the false alarm ratios. Thus, a hybrid of proximity- and clustering-based anomaly detection approaches to identify anomalies in the air quality data is suggested in this work. The Gaussian distribution property of the real-world data set is utilized further to segregate out anomalies. The results depicted twofold advantages of our approach, by efficient extraction of anomalies and with increased accuracy by reducing the number of false alarms. Specifically, the presence of NO₂ concentration in air is investigated in this work, considering its constant increase over decades as well as its inevitable health risks. Furthermore, spatiotemporal segments with anomalously high NO₂ concentrations for 14 residential, industrial, and commercial areas of five cities in India are extracted. To validate the results, a comparative analysis with existing approaches of anomaly detection and with two benchmark data sets is performed. Results showed that our method outperformed the existing methods of anomaly detection, when evaluated over metrics such as sensitivity, miss rate, and false alarms. Further, a detailed analysis of extracted anomalies and a detailed discussion about the factors responsible for such anomalies are presented in this work. This study is helpful in educating government and people about spatiotemporal, geographical, and economic conditions responsible for anomalously high NO₂ concentrations in air.

Implications: Using our methodology, days with extremely high concentration of any pollutant in air, at any particular location, can be extracted. The reasons for such extremely high pollutant concentration on particular days of a year can be studied and preventive measures can be taken by the government. Thus, by identification of causes of anomalies, future similar events can be avoided. This would also help in people’s decision making in case such events occur in the future.