Towards institutional analysis of sustainability science: a quantitative examination of the patterns of research collaboration

This paper examines quantitatively the patterns of collaboration over geographical boundaries in the emerging field of sustainability science by empirically analyzing the bibliometric data of scientific articles. The results indicate that an increasing number of countries are engaged in research on sustainability, with the proportion of articles published through international collaboration rising as well. The number of countries engaged in international collaboration on sustainability research has been increasing, and the diversity of countries engaged in research collaboration beyond national borders is also increasing. The geographical patterns of collaboration on sustainability show that research collaboration tends to be conducted between countries which are geographically located closely, suggesting that communication and information exchange might be limited within the regional clusters. The focused fields of research activities on sustainability are significantly different between countries, as each country has its focused fields of research related to sustainability. The specialization of research activities is also observed in international collaboration. While these patterns of international collaboration within regional clusters focusing on specific fields could be effective in promoting the creation, transmission, and sharing of knowledge on sustainability utilizing the already existing regional networks, they could pose a serious obstacle to collecting, exchanging, and integrating diverse types of knowledge, especially when it is necessary to deal with problems involving large-scale complex interactions with long-term implications, such as climate change. It would be of critical importance to establish inter-regional linkages by devising appropriate institutional arrangements for global research collaboration on sustainability science.     

Equity and sustainability over the next fifty years: An exercise in economic visioning

A simplistic aggregate model of global economic activity supports a 50-year visioning exercise with targets defined in terms of aggregate measures of global equity (convergence) and sustainability (contraction). Some ambitious combinations of these targets turn out to be infeasible even under the most favorable modeling assumptions. No contraction target (no reduction in fossil fuel consumption relative to the present) was possible, for example, if international capital transfers pushed per capita incomes in low-income countries above 33% of levels achieved in high-income countries. Lower prices for renewable alternatives to exhaustible resources generally made sustainability targets easier to achieve, but lower prices for renewable resources also made equity targets more difficult to achieve. Improved substitution between capital and labor made equity targets easier to achieve in relative terms, but improved substitution between capital and labor could make any given sustainability target more or less difficult to achieve. All the results suggest that it is possible to overstate the purported conflict between achieving sustainability and equity targets. The very transfers of international capital that would promote relative equity between high-income and low-income countries could also work to spread the incidence of achieving any sustainability target more evenly across their boundaries.     

Using the Framework for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (FISA) to expand the Multiregional Input–Output analysis to account for the three pillars of sustainability

Decision makers interested in promoting sustainable development must simultaneously consider the environmental, economic and social implications of any action. This article proposes the Framework for Integrated Sustainability Assessment (FISA), a methodological framework for conducting a sustainability impact assessment of any investment project. Based on a Multiregional Input–Output (MRIO) framework, FISA links the extended MRIO results with social risk data from the Social Hotspots Database (SHDB) in order to integrate the social with the environmental and economic pillars. Resulting impacts are simultaneously considered and reported by means of FISA charts, making it possible to assess the different impacts within the three sustainability pillars across countries involved in the whole supply chain of investment projects. This methodological framework can be applied not only to compare the sustainability impacts of two alternative projects, but also to derive specific recommendations aimed at minimizing the harmful social, environmental and economic effects along the whole project supply chain.     

Equity and sustainability over the next fifty years: An exercise in economic visioning

A simplistic aggregate model of global economic activity supports a 50-year visioning exercise with targets defined in terms of aggregate measures of global equity (convergence) and sustainability (contraction). Some ambitious combinations of these targets turn out to be infeasible even under the most favorable modeling assumptions. No contraction target (no reduction in fossil fuel consumption relative to the present) was possible, for example, if international capital transfers pushed per capita incomes in low-income countries above 33% of levels achieved in high-income countries. Lower prices for renewable alternatives to exhaustible resources generally made sustainability targets easier to achieve, but lower prices for renewable resources also made equity targets more difficult to achieve. Improved substitution between capital and labor made equity targets easier to achieve in relative terms, but improved substitution between capital and labor could make any given sustainability target more or less difficult to achieve. All the results suggest that it is possible to overstate the purported conflict between achieving sustainability and equity targets. The very transfers of international capital that would promote relative equity between high-income and low-income countries could also work to spread the incidence of achieving any sustainability target more evenly across their boundaries.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Quantifying the limits of HANPP and carbon emissions which prolong total species well-being

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change are leading to irreversible losses of global biodiversity, upon which ecosystem functioning depends. Since total species' well-being depends on ecosystem goods and services, man must determine how much net primary productivity (NPP) may be appropriated and carbon emitted so as to not adversely impact this and future generations. In 2005, man ought to have only appropriated 9.72 Pg C of NPP, representing a factor 2.50, or 59.93%, reduction in human-appropriated NPP in that year. Concurrently, the carbon cycle would have been balanced with a factor 1.26, or 20.84%, reduction from 7.60 Gt C/year to 5.70 Gt C/year, representing a return to the 1986 levels. This limit is in keeping with the category III stabilization scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Projecting population growth to 2030 and its associated basic food requirements, the maximum HANPP remains at 9.74 ± 0.02 Pg C/year. This time-invariant HANPP may only provide for the current global population of 6.51 billion equitably at the current average consumption of 1.49 t C per capita, calling into question the sustainability of developing countries striving for high-consuming country levels of 5.85 t C per capita and its impacts on equitable resource distribution.     

A strategic quantitative approach for sustainable energy production from biomass

European legislation has created a growing interest in the field of renewable energy production in several countries, including Italy. The applications of biomass and/or biofuel for energy generation have been assumed to provide a high level of sustainability due to the perception that renewable resources are inherently sustainable. Thus, renewable fuels applied to heating and/or electricity generation are potentially carbon dioxide neutral. However, before accepting this assumption, it is essential to analyse the actual level of sustainability in the whole supply chain (SC). This requirement has been clearly identified by the recently updated European Directives on renewable biofuels for transportation. However, there is little evidence that this concern has been directed at energy production from biomass. Thus, approaches derived from Green SC Management (GSCM) methods could provide an effective tool for evaluating, from a strategic perspective, the sustainability level of a specific biomass SC. This paper examines how biomass SC activities can define the overall environmental sustainability level. The approach was based on environmental indicators and the resultant output could support more effective GSCM strategies (e.g. defining logistics carriers, evaluating new biomass suppliers, etc.) for managing biomass SCs. Moreover, the approach could be applied by competent authorities for a quick evaluation of the sustainability level of biomass energy production installations. The approach has been tested in a real case study based on an installation, located in Southern Italy, which uses liquid biomass for energy production.     

Is the degrowth debate relevant to China?

In industrialized countries, the idea of degrowth has emerged as a response to environmental, social, and economic crises. Realizing environmental limits to and failures of more than half a century of continual economic growth in terms of social progress and environmental sustainability, the degrowth paradigm calls for a downscaling of consumption and production for social equity and ecological sustainability. The call for economic degrowth is generally considered to be delimited to rich countries, where reduced consumption can save “ecological space” enabling people in poor countries to enjoy the benefits of economic growth. China, as one of the economically most expanding countries in the world, has dramatically improved its living standards, particularly along the Eastern coast, over the latest 30 years. However, China is absent from the international debates on growth. This article discusses the implications of the Western degrowth debates for China. Given the distinctive features of China’s development, the paper aims to enrich the degrowth debates, which have hitherto been dominated by Western perspectives. Based upon reflections on social, environmental, and moral dimensions of economic growth, the paper argues that limited natural resources may not continuously support universal affluence at the current level of the rich countries, a level that China is likely to reach within a few decades. Priority for growth in China should therefore be given to the poor regions of the country, and future growth should be beneficial to social and environmental development.     

基于贸易隐含碳的城市人均碳足迹比较研究

气候谈判中采用的碳排放基准数据,关乎发展中国家的发展权。本文认为基于生产者责任原则的碳排放数据为气候谈判基准是不合理的。提出基于贸易隐含碳的城市人均碳足迹数据为基准,并选取具有代表性的几个城市(纽约、东京、伦敦、上海)进行样本研究。结果表明,在考虑贸易隐含碳排放的情况下,上海的人均碳足迹最低。2008年,纽约为上海的2.2倍,伦敦为上海的1.8倍,东京为上海的1.6倍。本文希望在考虑贸易隐含碳的情况下,对国际上有相近功能的城市人均碳足迹的研究可以为我国的气候谈判赢得更多的话语权,并给出了相关政策建议。     

中国低碳发展的国际比较研究——基于历史和经济发展阶段的审视

随着近年来我国碳排放总量的增加,一些西方国家开始把碳减排责任的矛头指向中国。为了明确中国碳排放的国际地位,运用历史唯物主义观点,从经济发展阶段视角进行了国际比较研究。首先运用IEA2011年公布的碳排放数据分析了我国2009年面临的碳排放形势,继而研究了工业革命以来中国碳排放的总体贡献情况,最后从经济发展阶段视角进行了国际比较研究。认为:①尽管我国当前的碳排放总量巨大,但人均碳排放量低于世界前10名的主要碳排放国家,碳排放强度与世界主要碳排放国家相比还存在一定差距;②我国的历史累计碳排放贡献及人均碳排放均较低,发达国家和地区的累计碳排放量达到世界累计碳排放量的近3/4;③与发达国家相同经济发展阶段相比,我国的人均碳排放和碳排放强度远低于主要发达国家和地区;④世界主要发达国家和地区在快速推进工业化的经济发展阶段普遍伴随着高碳排放。鉴于此,我们认为应该辩证地看待中国的碳排放,一方面中国当前的确产生了较大的碳排放,另一方面中国的经济发展阶段决定了这种碳排放规模和水平。发达国家的经济发展轨迹和碳足迹也表明,在工业化快速推进的过程中,一定程度的高碳排放是世界经济发展的客观规律。     

CDM Projects under the Kyoto Protocol: A Methodology for Sustainability Assessment – Experiences from South Africa and Uruguay

Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries may finance greenhouse gases mitigation projects in developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol explicitly requires that the CDM shall assist developing countries to achieve sustainable development. However, a clear definition of sustainability for CDM projects is still debatable. MATA-CDM (Multi-Attributive Assessment of CDM Projects) is an approach that facilitates a quantitative assessment of potential projects regarding their contribution to sustainable development. This paper presents applications of MATA-CDM in two different countries. In South Africa, the application was done mainly for academic and demonstrative purposes, whereas in Uruguay it was implemented together with the responsible Designated National Authority (DNA). The work in both countries included the selection of sustainability criteria and measurable indicators. Experts weighted the criteria using personal interviews and a multi-stakeholder workshop. This method was applied to three potential CDM projects in South Africa and one in Uruguay. Results show that under the conditions of this study, the MATA-CDM approach yet fails to yield a perfect quantitative overall sustainability assessment of CDM projects but that several findings could be useful to further develop the approach with the aim to translate the vague term sustainable development to a mainstream project level. Valuable experience was in particular collected with different stakeholder processes to perform criteria weighting.     

Technology advance and discounting of the historical emission responsibilities

Solving the dispute over historical greenhouse gases emission responsibility is critical for the future climate agreement.This article borrows the methodology from the carbon budget proposal,but further develops this approach by proposing discount of the historical responsibility due to the technology advance.Firstly,it studies the Annex I countries’mitigation and financial responsibilities of the historical emission in the carbon budget proposal;furthermore,it analyzes the results and implications of the discount approach.Results show that the discount method significantly reduces the burden of the mitigation and financial responsibilities of the Annex I countries.Thus,we claim that the discount approach is a systematic,pragmatic,and fair approach to solve the historical responsibility dispute and financial problems for the post-2020international climate institutions.     

The Concept and Theoretical Implications of Carbon Emissions Rights Based on Individual Equity

Abstract

Climate change has become a hot topic in international environmental negotiations. For post-Kyoto international climate regime negotiations, many countries have proposed a variety of frameworks to share the emission reduction responsibilities and allocate carbon emission rights, and have tried to quantify the emission reduction obligations of all countries based on the perspectives of international equity and individual equity. In this paper, the authors have distinguished the concepts of carbon emissions rights based on these two perspectives respectively, have analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions per capita and economic development, and have calculated and compared the proportion of cumulative emissions per capita of different countries in history and future, and then authors conclude that emission reduction obligations should be allocated based on each country’s conditions, including historical emissions, development stage, and future demands. Developed countries should take the initiative to significantly reduce their emissions because they have already accomplished their industrialization process. However, developing countries are still in the process of industrialization, which requires more emission rights to meet their development needs. For China, the concept of carbon emissions based on individual equity can be used as a theoretical tool for the allocating the international carbon emissions rights.     

Moving towards urban sustainability in Kenya: a framework for integration of environmental,economic, social and governance dimensions

Global urban development is increasingly becoming an aspect of focus as nations fight sustainability challenges. A review of the current literature on urban sustainability suggests that research on development of cities, in both developed and developing countries, is growing fast, with an emphasis on sustainable development. However, very little of this research contains an integrated framework to systematically identify and examine the various dimensions of urban sustainability and to measure and evaluate them appropriately. Cities are more than the sum of their sectors, and are complex and interdependent systems on whose dynamics the quality of life of millions of human beings and a good part of the economy depend. Environmental, economic, social and governance problems can create formidable barriers to urban sustainability. Governance remains a critically important dimension of urban sustainability, especially when discussing urbanization in developing countries, given rapid population movements and imbalances in socio-economic development. Understanding how cities function is fundamental to resolving these imbalances. The aim of this paper is to provide a review and analysis of the concept of urban sustainability and to propose the development of a holistic framework through integration of environmental, economic, social, and governance dimensions of sustainability. Such a review would make it possible to understand the complex dynamics of the four dimensions and to assess the progress and challenges in moving towards urban sustainability, taking the case of Nairobi, Kenya, as an example. The paper argues that, for urban sustainability in developing countries, more emphasis should be placed on the governance dimension, because this is where the biggest challenge exists, with increasing needs for immediate management of rapid urbanization.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

Towards a new climate economics:research areas and prospects

International cooperation to address climate change now stands at a crossroads.With a new international regime for emissions reduction established by the Durban Platform, "New Climate Economics(NCE)" has become a research hotspot.The need for urgent action to combat climate change has prompted discussion on reforms of economic growth patterns and the energy system.The industrial civilization,therefore,now faces a transition towards a new pathway for ecological sustainability.NCE explores new economic concepts,theories,and analytical methods to design a balanced pathway for sustainable growth and emission reduction.Instead of getting trapped in discussions on allocation of emission reduction responsibilities and obligations among countries,NCE pays more attention to developing win-win multilateral cooperation mechanisms that facilitate collaborative RD and knowledge sharing.In addition,NCE studies incentives for low-carbon transition,turning carbon emission reduction into a domestic need for countries to increase their international competitiveness.To achieve the 2°C target,most countries around the world face challenges of insufficient emission allowances to cover expected emissions associated with their projected economic growth.As carbon emissions rights becomes an increasingly scarce resource,increasing the carbon productivity of the economy turns to be the critical path to address the dilemma of green or growth.NCE studies the historical evolution of carbon productivity for countries at different development stages as well as ways to enhance such carbon productivity.This type of study provides invaluable lessons for emerging economies to reach their own emission peaks without losing the momentum of growth.Replacing fossil fuels with new and renewable energy has proven to be an inevitable choice for reshaping the energy system and addressing climate change- it has already become a global trend.NCE studies incentives for new energy technology innovation and deployment provided by carbon pricing,and sheds light on the co-benefits of climate change mitigation,such as resource conservation,environmental protection,and energy security.The role of carbon pricing in promoting intemational RD cooperation and technical transfer will also be studied.The shift in consumption patterns is another key factor enabling a low-carbon transformation.Therefore,NCE also explores the theoretical work on new values of wealth,welfare and consumption,new lifestyles in the context of ecological civilization,concepts and implementation of low-carbon urban planning in developing countries,and the impacts of consumption pattern changes on social development,material production,and urban infrastructure construction.     

Technology improvements and value changes for sustainable happiness: a cross-development analytical model

This paper develops an analytical model to calculate the amount by which individuals are expected to modify their values (the relationship between lifestyle and happiness, as measured by subjective well-being, SWB) and to adopt innovative technologies (to increase the sustainability of production and consumption, measured by the ecological footprint, EF) to allow current and future generations to achieve sustainable happiness (the pursuit of happiness that does not exploit other people, the environment, or future generations). The paper also examines the dependence of these changes on an individual’s concern for future generations and on their country’s current state of economic development. It is shown that individuals in better-off developed countries and individuals in worse-off developing countries can achieve sustainability with a reasonable level of value change (0–30 %) and a feasible degree of technological innovation (10–40 %), respectively. In contrast, individuals in better-off developing countries and individuals in worse-off developed countries must rely to an impractical degree of technological innovation (50–70 %) and to an unreasonable level of value change (40–70 %), respectively. Finally, individuals in developing countries differ from individuals in developed countries in terms of their potential to achieve sustainable happiness, by achieving sustainability at a low SWB (about 10 % of its maximum) and a high SWB (about 80 % of its maximum), respectively.     

Sustainability indicators for clean development mechanism projects in Vietnam

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexible instruments of the Kyoto Protocol designed to combat climate change so as to bring advantages to developing countries and developed countries alike. Indeed, CDM projects have a two-fold objective: to offset greenhouse gas emissions and to contribute to sustainable development in the host country. However in many cases, the latter objective appears to be marginalized. This is at least partly due to the difficulties surrounding the definition and the measurement of sustainability, in particular in a developing country context. To assess CDM projects’ contribution to sustainable development in the host country, scholars and practitioners need adapted indicator sets. A set of indicators were developed by way of an iterative Delphi approach amongst selected Vietnamese experts. The Delphi approach allowed a systematic collection of the experts’ judgements on the sustainability indicators through a set of sequentially applied questionnaires, interspersed with feedback from earlier responses. This exercise resulted in the selection of a set of 36 indicators, which emphasise economic efficiency, public health and pollution issues. The exercise yielded a locally supported and context-specific set of sustainability indicators that will allow Vietnamese decision-makers to enhance the sustainability of the approved CDM projects. In the future this set should be continually improved through real-life application and further participation from local stakeholders. This study is a first step in a long-term process towards developing an adapted toolkit for sustainability assessment of CDM projects in Vietnam.     

基于Logistic模型的中国各省碳排放预测

在“碳排放量与能源消费成正比”假设的基础上,对中国30个省区2011～2020年碳排放进行了预测。首先对中国30个省区1987～2010年的历史累计排放量和人均累计排放量进行计算,依据历史累计排放量和人均累计排放量两个指标,运用K-均值聚类分析法将中国各省区碳排放分成了5类。分别绘出5类区域中各省的历年碳排放量曲线,并进行数据分析,发现：以2002年为界线,2002年前后两个时段中国各省区碳排放变化差异很大。这一现象说明2002年以前的各省碳排放趋势并不能表征未来年份各省的碳排放。在此结论的基础上,构建了碳排放量增长的Logistic预测模型,并以2002～2010年碳排放数据为样本数据,对2011～2020年中国各省区碳排放进行了预测。为了验证预测模型的精确性,利用Logistic预测模型对中国30个省区2002～2010年的碳排放进行了预测,并将预测值与实际排放值进行比较发现,除了宁夏自治区的误差达1458%外,其他地区的误差均在7%以下。除宁夏外的中国各省区预测误差的平均值为622%,由此验证了Logistic预测模型的精确性。同时,也说明对中国30个省区2011～2020年碳排放的预测值具有较高的可信性。本研究为中国各省未来碳排放政策的制定提供了方法与数据支持     

GHG Mitigation Potential and Cost in Tropical Forestry - Relative Role for Agroforestry

This paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential (MP) and costs of forestry options in seven developing countries with a focus on the role of agroforestry. A common methodological approach known as comprehensive mitigation assessment process (COMAP) was used in each study to estimate the potential and costs between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios derived from the demand for forest products and forestland for other uses such as agriculture and pasture. By using data on estimated carbon sequestration, emission avoidance, costs and benefits, the model enables one to estimate cost effectiveness indicators based on monetary benefit per t C, as well as estimates of total mitigation costs and potential when the activities are implemented at equilibrium level. The results show that about half the MP of 6.9 Gt C (an average of 223 Mt C per year) between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries could be achieved at a negative cost, and the other half at costs not exceeding $100 per t C. Negative cost indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of about half of the options. The agroforestry options analyzed bear a significant proportion of the potential at medium to low cost per t C when compared to other options. The role of agroforestry in these countries varied between 6% and 21% of the MP, though the options are much more cost effective than most due to the low wage or opportunity cost of rural labor. Agroforestry options are attractive due to the large number of people and potential area currently engaged in agriculture, but they pose unique challenges for carbon and cost accounting due to the dispersed nature of agricultural activities in the tropics, as well as specific difficulties arising from requirements for monitoring, verification, leakage assessment and the establishment of credible baselines.