The effects of personality and gender on risky driving behaviour and accident involvement

The present study investigates the effects of personality traits and gender on risky driving behaviour and accident involvement. A sample of Norwegian adolescents in two Norwegian counties participated (n = 1356). Anxiety was significantly correlated to excitement-seeking and risky driving behaviour, and excitement-seeking was significantly correlated to risky driving behaviour and collisions. Through a regression analysis, personality traits and gender were found to explain 37.3% of the variance in risky driving behaviour. However, the relations were not very strong, and the personality traits did only explain a moderate part of the variance. Possible explanations for this as well as methodological considerations are discussed. Directions for further research are suggested.     

Longitudinal examination of underage drinking and subsequent drinking and risky driving

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol use, alcohol misuse, and risky driving from adolescence into young adulthood were compared by drinking onset age. METHODS: Surveys were administered in Grades 5/6, 6/7, 7/8, 10, 12, and at approximately age 23. Participants were placed into Drinking Onset groups based on self-reported alcohol use frequency on the adolescent surveys. Driving records were examined in three age periods: under 21, 21-25, and 26+. RESULTS: The earliest drinking initiators reported higher alcohol use and misuse on each survey, and were more likely to have risky driving offenses before age 21 and to have alcohol driving offenses in all three age periods. DISCUSSION: The earliest drinking initiators engaged in risky drinking behavior and risky driving behavior that was consistently higher than those with later drinking initiation, beginning in adolescence and persisting well into young adulthood.     

道路交通事故发展趋势分析与预测

根据福建省2000 -2010年交通事故相关指标,采用统计图表分析法进行交通事故发展趋势分析与安全水平比较研究,结果表明交通事故各项绝对指标总体呈下降趋势,但从万车死亡率、受伤人数与死亡人数比及交通事故死亡人数占各类事故死亡人数比重等相对指标看,交通安全总体水平偏低,交通事故后果比较严重.对交通事故死亡人数与GDP、机动车保有量、公路通车里程、人口数四项影响因素进行了多元线性回归分析,分析得出四个影响因素总体对交通事故死亡人数的线性影响是显著的,采取向后筛选策略线性回归分析得出,死亡人数与GDP的线性关系是显著的,根据回归结果建立了交通事故的预测模型.     

Relationship between traffic fatalities and drunk driving in Japan

OBJECTIVE: The present study was performed to clarify the relation between alcohol use and traffic fatalities in accidents involving motor vehicles in Japan. METHODS: Data on traffic accidents were collected from Fukuoka Prefectural Police records of traffic accidents which occurred in that prefecture between 1987 and 1996. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess the effect of alcohol use on the risk of traffic-accident death. RESULTS: The data showed that 58,421 male drivers were involved in traffic accidents during the 10-year study period, and that 271 of these were killed as a result of the accident. Alcohol use was significantly associated with speed, seat belt use, time, and road form. Among male motorcar drivers, the odds ratio of alcohol use before driving, after adjusting for age, calendar year, time, and road form, was 4.08 (95% confidence interval, 3.08-5.40), which means that about 75% of fatalities (attributable risk percent among exposed) might have been prevented if drivers had not drunk before driving. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol use before driving resulted in a 4.08-fold increase in the risk of death in a traffic accident. It is suggested that alcohol use is considered an important risk factor for fatality in traffic accidents.     

The intercoder agreement when using the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method in road traffic accident investigations

Many different classification schemes have been used in the analysis of road traffic accidents but the agreement between coders using the same classification scheme is rarely tested and/or reported. As a high intercoder agreement is a prerequisite for a study’s validity, this is a serious shortcoming. The aim of the present study was, therefore, to test the intercoder agreement of the Driving Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAM) version 3.0 by letting seven coders from different European countries analyse and classify the causes of the same four accident scenarios. The results showed that the intercoder agreement for genotypes (contributing factors) ranges from 74% to 94% with an average of 83%, while for phenotypes (observable effects) it ranges from 57% to 100% with an average of 78%. The results also showed that weaknesses in classification schemes, methods, training of coders as well as in presentation of accident information can be identified by testing the intercoder agreement.     

疲劳驾驶交通事故的特点分析与预防

疲劳驾驶引发的道路交通事故导致了严重的人身伤亡和财产损失.本文从心理和生理两方面分析了疲劳形成机理,对我国2006年因疲劳驾驶导致的交通事故进行了疲劳事故特点分析,并根据统计分析结果制定针对性的预防措施,从而减少疲劳驾驶交通事故的发生率.     

疲劳驾驶交通事故的特点分析与预防

疲劳驾驶引发的道路交通事故导致了严重的人身伤亡和财产损失。本文从心理和生理两方面分析了疲劳形成机理,对我国2006年因疲劳驾驶导致的交通事故进行了疲劳事故特点分析,并根据统计分析结果制定针对性的预防措施,从而减少疲劳驾驶交通事故的发生率。     

公路交通事故危险性与事故原因的灰色关联分析

交通安全既可以采用交通事故次数来评价，也可以根据交通事故的严重度进行衡量。不同的交通事故诱因，其事故后果的危险程度也不一致。运用灰色系统理论，以某段道路上交通事故多发点的“地点危险指数”为参考数列，以这些地点的不同事故诱因为比较数列，对“事故危险指数”和引发交通事故的各类事故原因之间作灰色关联分析，可以找出该路段上危害性最大的一些交通事故成因，在交通管理和交通安全宣传教育中有针对性地进行防治。本文以107国道1716—1883公里的交通事故数据为例给出了算例。     

Risk homeostasis theory, utility and accident loss in a simulated driving task

The suggestion that utility is logically necessary for behavioural adjustments to be made in response to changes in intrinsic risk is fundamental to risk homeostasis theory (RHT). However, the methodology used to investigate RHT — analysis of road traffic accidents — is ill-suited to the investigation of this assertion. The role of utility and intrinsic risk as possible determinants of behavioural compensation were therefore examined experimentally across 14 specific behaviours using the Aston Driving Simulator. RHT predicts that these two factors act in a multiplicative way to form a statistical interaction. It also predicts that the behavioural pathways through which the effect manifests itself should be reconcilable with the concept of utility. Both predictions received little support in this experiment, suggesting that utility and intrinsic risk operate as independent factors: both factors produced significant main effects across a number of behaviours. This finding, if it can be generalised, implies that, contrary to mathematically-based models of danger compensation and the traditional model of risk homeostasis, utility is not logically necessary for behavioural compensation in response to a change in intrinsic risk.     

Risky driving and the perception of motorcycle accident causes among chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong

Objective: The primary purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles and perceived causes of motorcycle accidents, as well as their contribution to active involvement in traffic accidents among Chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong. Active involvement means the riders was likely at fault for the crash. Methods: A total of 774 motorcyclists were recruited, of whom 292 had been involved in active motorcycle accident in the previous 3?years. All were asked to fill in a questionnaire, which was developed to assess their risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle and perception of motorcycle accident causes. Results: The results of the study revealed 3 dimensions of accident causes, namely, driving-related, environment-related, and belief-related causes. These motorcycle accident causes were correlated with risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.036, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020-1.052), perception of driving-related cause (adjusted OR: 0.941, 95% CI: 0.916-0.967), and belief-related cause (adjusted OR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.088-1.182) were significant factors contributing to involvement in active traffic accidents by motorcycle riders after controlling for concurrent demographic variables. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived causes of motorcycle accidents are multidimensional, including those areas related to driving, the environment, and beliefs. It substantiates previous studies that a higher degree of driving-related risk perception is related to a lower degree of risk-taking acts while driving. Further research is needed to understand why belief-related causes, sometimes called superstitions, lead riders to believe that it is beyond their ability to affect accident causation and prevention.     

Associations between driver training, determinants of risky driving behaviour and crash involvement

The core aim of the study is to examine associations between formal and informal practical driver training as well as driving experience on the one hand and young drivers’ safety attitudes, self-assessment of driving ability and self-reported driver behaviour on the other hand. An additional aim is to examine the associations between attitudes, self-assessment and behaviour on the one hand and crash involvement on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of Norwegian drivers aged 18–20 years (n = 1419). The results showed that there were small yet significant associations between driver training, on the one hand and traffic safety attitudes and risky driving behaviour on the other hand. The amount of formal driver training was negatively associated with the respondents’ evaluation of their driving skills; although the amount of lay instruction was positively associated with such self-evaluation. The results also showed that attitudes as well as self-assessment of driving ability were significantly associated with self-reported risk behaviour. This was especially true for attitudes related to rule violations. There was a strong association between crash involvement and exposure (measured as months holding a licence). Young novice drivers’ crash involvement seems stronger associated with driving skills (manifested as self-assessment of driving ability) than safety attitudes and self-reported driver behaviour. The consequences of the results for driver training and accident prevention are discussed.     

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey

Introduction

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey.

Method

Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P < 0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses.

Results

Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P < 0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R² values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R² for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions.

Impact on industry

Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.     

基于SCPN的交通应急处置流程建模及性能分析

为了更好地利用信息技术支持应急管理,提高交通应急指挥系统救援效率,以路面塌陷事故为例,利用随机着色Petri网(SCPN)对其应急响应流程进行动态离散建模,根据同构的马尔可夫链(MC)分析模型的有效性,最后利用马尔可夫链及模糊数学的相关理论对交通应急指挥系统进行性能分析。结果表明:救援信息、交通路网动态信息、应急资源信息及时态控制信息反馈环节容易产生信息堆积,应提高综合监控的技术水平;专家决策制定出警预案、善后处理耗时较长,应作为流程优化的重点。     

基于ARIMA和XGBoost组合模型的交通事故预测

近年来交通事故及其损失严重影响社会经济的发展和人民生活的提高,交通事故预测可以为交通事故预防提供数据支持。基于自回归滑动平均(ARIMA)模型和极端梯度提升(XGBoost)模型,构建时间序列组合预测模型,对交通事故相关指标进行趋势预测。根据交通事故的特点,选定"事故起数""受伤人数""死亡人数"及"损失"4个指标。首先,根据自相关、偏自相关图确定ARIMA模型参数,根据AIC(赤池信息准则)值确定最终模型;然后,对4个指标的ARIMA模型预测结果的残差构建残差序列,对其进行XGBoost建模,得出修正后的残差预测值;最后,根据残差预测值和ARIMA模型预测值得出组合模型最终的预测值。实例结果表明,4项指标的混合预测模型的预测精度均优于单一的ARIMA模型和Holt-winters模型,其中以"受伤人数"和"死亡人数"的模型改善效果最为显著,"受伤人数"指标的平均绝对百分比误差降低了5.431 7个百分点,"死亡人数"指标的平均绝对百分比误差降低了3.625 9个百分点。     

Differences in urban and rural accident characteristics and medical service utilization for traffic fatalities in less-motorized societies

Introduction

Fatalities from traffic accidents in less-motorized societies are an important global issue. We aimed to characterize the geographic differences of fatalities in such societies to facilitate the development of targeted interventions.

Method

This study linked police reports, hospital data, and vital registration data from Taiwan with special reference to accident factors in pre-hospital deaths and medical care in hospital deaths.

Results

A higher percentage of pre-hospital deaths were observed following rural as compared to urban traffic accidents. The deaths due to rural accidents can be attributed to lower use of restraints (i.e., helmets or seat belts), lower percentage of motorcyclists, and more highway accidents. A higher percentage of victims in rural accidents were transported to distant medical centers rather than to local hospitals.

Conclusion

Specific interventions, such as intelligent emergency medical systems, campaigns for helmets and seat belt usage, enforcement of helmets and seat belt use, and speed control measures should be targeted to rural areas.

Impact on industry

Cooperation between the vehicle industry and emergency medical providers in rural traffic accident rescue teams may decrease the numbers of deaths in these regions.     

Cultural and socio-demographic predictors of car accident involvement in Norway,Ghana, Tanzania and Uganda

The prevalence of road traffic accidents is increasing towards endemic proportions in developing countries. The present study investigated cultural and demographic predictors of car accident involvement in a developed country in Europe and three developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The comparison was carried out with questionnaires among a randomly obtained representative sample of the Norwegian population (n = 247) as well as stratified samples in Accra and Cape-Coast in Ghana (n = 299), Dar-es-Salaam and Arusha areas in Tanzania (n = 599), and the central Kampala and the Mbarara district in Uganda (n = 415). Measurement instruments of culture as symbol exchange and destiny orientation were used to predict self-reported road traffic accident involvement by car among the respondents. Demographic characteristics, such as gender, age and education, were also included as predictors of car accidents. The results showed that male gender was the only significant predictor of accident involvement in Norway. Introverted and extroverted culture, destiny orientation and written culture were associated with accident involvement in the African countries. Male gender also predicted accidents in these countries. Non-technical injury preventive countermeasures in developing countries could focus on cultural practice and fatalistic beliefs. Countermeasures in both developed and developing countries should target male drivers.     

Early impacts of alcoholic beverage warning labels: national study findings relevant to drinking and driving behavior

After November, 1989 Federal law required a standard health warning label on all alcoholic beverage containers sold for consumption in the U.S. Results are reported from a cross-sectional national household telephone interview survey of adults, occurring approximately 6 months after implementation of the warning labels (N=2000). Implications for health warnings with respect to information processing theory, the Health Belief Model, and other theories relevant to precaution adoption are briefly reviewed and two derivative hypotheses are tested using log-linear analysis. Relationships between various personal characteristics and (a) seeing the label and (b) recalling the driving impairment message are examined for consistency with theoretical expectations. We also examine associations between message recall, drinking style, and two precautionary behaviors undertaken to avoid drinking and driving. Adjusting for apparent false positives, approximately a quarter of the sample have noticed the label 6 months after its introduction; 16% recalled the specific driving impairment message. As hypothesized, exposure to the warning was predicted primarily by consumption pattern but also was associated with a personal salience factor, that is, ever having drunk alcohol so as to be at risk when driving. About a quarter of the heavy drinkers (5 drinks or more per occasion sometime and drinking at least weekly) who ever drank and drove saw the specific warning. Of two self-regulation strategies — limiting driving after drinking and limiting drinking when about to drive — the latter was the more prevalent. Both strategies were reported more by those who were heavy drinkers, those recalling the driving impairment message, and those perceiving driving after drinking to be very dangerous, than by other individuals.