Dynamic simulation of hazard analysis of radiations from LNG pool fire

Because of its highly flammable nature, any accidental release of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could possibly pose significant fire hazard. In this study, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used to analyze this hazard around an existing LNG station. By assuming an LNG pool fire occurring in an impoundment area, dynamic simulations of flame development have been carried out. In order to provide more reliable simulation results, a study was first conducted to determine the mesh independence and suitable time step. The results of CFD simulations were also compared with those using the commonly-used phenomenological model. The simulation results showed that LNG tanks in the neighbor dike area could withstand the received radiant heat flux, and the areas involving human activities, such as security office and public area, were also secure enough for people to escape from the hazards. LNG vaporizers, which are often located close to tank area, could possibly receive relatively higher radiant heat flux. High temperature achieved on vaporizers could cause material failure. CFD calculations have also indicated that increasing the spacing distance or using flowing water curtain could reduce this temperature. It is concluded that CFD method is significantly more effective to account for LNG hazard analysis and provide realistic results for complicated scenarios, thus providing meaningful information for safety consideration.     

Analysis of gas dispersion and ventilation within a comprehensive CAD model of an offshore platform via computational fluid dynamics

Maintaining an adequate air flow with a desired air quality that is free from hazardous gases is among the most important actions taken toward the improvement of safety in any process plant. Due to the increased focus on the consequences of existing hazardous material on safety, health, and the environment, air quality and sufficient ventilation within a plant has been increasingly considered in the design stage. This paper investigates and analyzes methane and hydrogen sulfite dispersion and the effect of air ventilation within a CAD model of an offshore platform using computation fluids dynamics (CFD). In addition, this method and its principals could be utilized in any other hazardous environment. Simulations of possible hazardous events along with solutions for preventing or reducing their probability are presented to better assess the data. These investigations are performed by considering hypothetical hazardous scenarios which consist of gas leakages from pipes and process equipment under different conditions. After drafting a precise and highly detailed CAD model of the plant and performing CFD simulations on this model, the results of gas behaviors, dispersion, distribution, accumulation, and its possible hazards are investigated and analyzed. The larger amount of details of the actual plant model in CFD simulation are obtained by using a combination of different methods and software. These include PDMS for 3-D drawing of the plan, Rinoceros for geometrical integration of the process equipment and facilities, and Sharc Harpoon which meshes the model. Moreover, the probability of inducing ignitable or toxic concentration of gases within the atmosphere and air ventilation of the unit is considered by these investigations.     

Key parametric analysis on designing an effective forced mitigation system for LNG spill emergency

Concerns over public safety and security of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) spill have promoted the need for continued improvement of safety measures for LNG facilities. The mitigation techniques have been recognized as one of the areas that require further investigation to determine the public safety impact of an LNG spill. Forced mitigation of LNG vapors using a water curtain system has been proven to be effective in reducing the vapor concentration by enhancing the dispersion. Currently, no engineering criteria for designing an effective water curtain system are available, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the complex droplet–vapor interaction. This work applies computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to evaluate various key design parameters involved in the LNG forced mitigation using an upwards-oriented full-cone water spray. An LNG forced dispersion model based on a Eulerian–Lagrangian approach was applied to solve the physical interactions of the droplet–vapor system by taking into account the various effects of the droplets (discrete phase) on the air–vapor mixture (continuous phase). The effects of different droplet sizes, droplet temperatures, air entrainment rates, and installation configurations of water spray applications on LNG vapor behavior are investigated. Finally, the potential of applying CFD modeling in providing guidance for setting up the design criteria for an effective forced mitigation system as an integrated safety element for LNG facilities is discussed.     

Initial phase modelling in numerical explosion applied to process safety

The utilisation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) in process safety has increased significantly in recent years. The modelling of accidental explosion via CFD has in many cases replaced the classical Multi Energy and Brake Strehlow methods. The benefits obtained with CFD modelling can be diminished if proper modelling of the initial phase of explosion is neglected. In the early stages of an explosion, the flame propagates in a quasi-laminar regime. Proper modelling of the initial laminar phase is a key aspect in order to predict the peak pressure and the time to peak pressure. The present work suggests a modelling approach for the initial laminar phase in explosion scenarios. Findings are compared with experimental data for two classical explosion test cases which resemble the common features in chemical process areas (confinement and congestion). A detailed analysis of the threshold for the transition from laminar to turbulent regime is also carried out. The modelling is implemented in a fully 3D Navier–Stokes compressible formulation. Combustion is treated using a laminar flamelet approach based on the Bray, Moss and Libby (BML) formulation. A novel modified porosity approach developed for the unstructured solver is also considered. Results agree satisfactorily with experiments and the modelling is found to be robust.     

Review of hydrogen safety during storage,transmission, and applications processes

Hydrogen is considered an excellent clean fuel with potential applications in several fields. There are serious safety concerns associated with the hydrogen process. These concerns need to be thoroughly understood and addressed to ensure its safe operation. To better understand the safety challenges of hydrogen use, application, and process, it is essential to undertake a detailed risk analysis. This can be achieved by performing detailed consequence modellings and assessing risk using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. This study comprehensively reviews and analyses safety challenges related to hydrogen, focusing on hydrogen storage, transmission, and application processes. Range of release and dispersion scenarios are investigated to analyse associated hazards. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment are also briefly discussed.     

Modeling the two-phase cloud evolution from instantaneous flashing release using CFD

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach has been successfully applied to simulate the small-scale instantaneous flashing release experiment by Pettitt. A model for dispersion of the release event is provided based on relevant theories and existing experimental data. An application of the CFD method to the dispersion simulation is illustrated. Furthermore, a new methodology based on discrete phase model for setting computational initial conditions is provided. An initial expansion and subsequent turbulence dispersion can be characteristically identified from both volume and temperature variation of the cloud obtained by the simulation. The possible mechanism for these phenomena has also been discussed and analyzed. The study deepens the understanding of the physical process of this event and provides one more reliable tool for relevant safety systems.     

Optimization of gas detector placement considering scenario probability and detector reliability in oil refinery installation

Gas detection system is a critical layer of protection in process safety. Leak scenario probability and detector reliability are two key factors in the optimization of gas detector placement. However, they are easily neglected in previous studies, which may lead to an inaccurate evaluation of the optimization solutions. In this study, a stochastic programming (SP) optimization method is proposed considering these two factors. In order to quantitatively represent the probability of leak scenarios, a complete accident scenario set (CASS) is built combining leak sources and wind fields. Then, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method is adopted for consequence modeling of gas dispersion. The Markov model is developed to predict the detector reliability. With the objective of minimal cumulative detection time (MCDT), the SP formulation considering scenario probability and detector reliability (MCDT-SPR) is proposed. By introducing the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, the optimization formulations can be solved. A case study is investigated on a diesel hydrogenation refining unit. Results validate this approach is promising to improve the detection efficiency. This method is more practical and matching with the actual industrial environment, where the leak scenarios and the detector reliability can change dynamically in real process setting.     

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of heat radiation from large liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pool fires

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is flammable and has risks of pool fires during its transportation, storage, and applications. The heat radiation by LPG pool fires poses hazards to individuals nearby and can lead to potential failures of ambient facilities. Due to the high costs and invasive nature of experiments for investigating large-scale pool fires, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is employed in this study as the cost-effective and noninvasive method to simulate the process and analyze the characteristics of large hydrocarbon pool fires. Specifically, an experimentally validated 3-D CFD model has been built to simulate surface emissive power (SEP) and incident radiation of large-scale LPG pool fires with three different diameters and wind speeds. Steady-state simulations with P1 radiation and probability density function (PDF) combustion models were employed to obtain reliable data after the optimizations based on the comparisons with experimental data and empirical models. The comparison with benchmark experimental data demonstrates that the CFD model employed in this study can accurately predict the incident radiation of large LPG pool fires. A new SEP correlation is also proposed, which is specifically for LPG pool fires with a diameter between 10 m and 20 m. Additionally, the safe separation distances between LPG facilities and surrounded objects have been estimated based on the CFD simulation results. The high-resolution CFD model for large LPG pool fires in this work provides noninvasive and direct quantitative evidence to enhance the fundamental understanding on the safety of large LPG pool fires and can assist regulatory agencies in refining the safety limits in the cost-effective and time-saving manners.     

Designing gaming simulations for the assessment of group decision support systems in emergency response

In very low-frequency, high-consequence events such as earthquakes or those resulting from malfunctions at commercial nuclear power generating facilities, a group or individual’s prior experience with crisis events will certainly influence judgments and behavior. Written plans and procedures have been shown to serve valuable purposes in training new organizations, individuals, and public officials for responding to these events. It has been demonstrated repeatedly that when emergency operations are conducted in accordance with existing plans, reaction time is reduced and coordination is improved, with fewer casualties and reduced economic damage as results. Such plans and procedures provide a normative model for simulation scenarios in the context of education and training activities. Simulations can also provide a field laboratory for evaluation of new technologies for training in operational decision-making.The purpose of this paper is to report on the design and use of a gaming simulation as a means of assessing one group decision support system (GDSS) for emergency response. The paper reviews related past work and focuses on our recent experience in conducting quasi-experiments to assess Emergency Management imPROViser (EMPROV), a GDSS for improvisation in emergency response operations. The process of designing a gaming simulation, determining the experimental protocol and coordinating the gaming sessions with emergency response personnel from the Port of Rotterdam will be described. Finally, the paper concludes with suggestions on how to improve the benefit of gaming simulations for training and operations.     

Rail ruminations for process safety improvement

Process safety practices have undergone multiple refinements over the past few decades, but major accidents continue to occur. Most organizations strive to improve performance by strengthening existing methods or by adopting new and/or different approaches. Central to these continual improvement efforts is the practice of applying lessons learned as a means to drive out potential risk exposures. Often, lessons learned may be transferred from other industries; indeed, high-performing organizations regularly benchmark practices outside of their immediate industry.In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, this paper examines risk management practices in the Rail Industry, and explores how methods intended for managing passenger and public rail safety may be transferred to drive continual improvement of process safety. Rail safety has its roots in engineered safety solutions; modern practices have additionally embraced the human aspects of safety performance. A selection of approaches for rail safety assessment and risk management are described in three areas considered fundamental to safety management: management of systems, management of technology, and management of human elements. In light of these examples, the authors provide views regarding how the field of process safety management may leverage the rail experience.     

Identification of accident scenarios caused by internal factors using HAZOP to assess an organic hydride hydrogen refueling station involving methylcyclohexane

Organic hydride hydrogen refueling stations have been remarked as stations that can employ a practicable method based on the organic chemical hydride system involving methylcyclohexane (MCH) for the transport of hydrogen. This station has advantages in that the storage and transportation of MCH does not require a large amount of energy compared to compressed and liquefied hydrogen, and the system can use existing infrastructure. This type of station involves some hazardous materials, and thus, scenario identifications and risk assessments have been performed by researchers. However, the sample of studies available have employed a conceptual design model, and they did not identify concrete scenarios triggered by internal factors. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify accidental scenarios caused by internal factors that can affect an organic hydride hydrogen refueling station. In this study, we used Hazard and Operability study (HAZOP) and examined safety measures for the scenarios. As a result of the HAZOP, 105 accidental scenarios were identified and classified into the two following groups; (i) the scenarios assumed that the substances were ignited after they were released to the atmosphere, and (ii) the scenarios assumed that the substances were ignited in the process before they were released. Significant scenarios in group (i) were MCH or toluene pool fires, hydrogen jet fires, vapor gas explosions, or flash fires. The significant scenarios classified in (ii) were newly identified in this study. The scenarios include the explosion of the explosive mixture formed by the gaseous phase of toluene and oxygen from the vent line connected to the tank due to the static electric charge in the tank. For each scenario, safety measures to prevent the progression of the accident scenario were examined with reference to the current laws and regulations in Japan.     

SESAR safety decision-making: Lessons from environmental,nuclear and defense modeling

SESAR, the ‘Single European Sky Air traffic Research’ program, envisages radical changes for European Air Traffic Management (ATM). It integrates and implements new technologies and information processing. This paper examines the safety decision-making in the implementation of SESAR projects. SESAR poses new safety problems because it adopts new paradigms for ATM safety – what lessons are there from environmental, nuclear and defense modeling? These disciplines have also had to confront the limitations of modeling the rates of rare and damaging – even catastrophic – events. A major conceptual change in SESAR is that of automated separation assurance systems. Some existing responsibilities transfer from the controller – either to the pilot or to computer systems – in a progressively phased approach. The major problem for SESAR safety validation is that mixed equipage/operations within a common airspace potentially generate new and different safety issues regarding the validation of safety predictions. A potential way forward uses high-fidelity Human In The Loop Simulations (HITLS) to generate confidence in the resilience of the ATM system. The focus changes from proving safety, i.e. through traditional kinds of validation processes, to extensive resilience testing using these simulations. The aim would be to test how resilient the system is to seeded errors, penetration testing, and crash/stress testing. This would be a high cost process because of the large investments required and the need for long sequences of testing. However, these demanding processes can provide ‘justified belief’ to the decision-maker that the changed ATM system is acceptably safe.     

Ontology-based computer aid for the automation of HAZOP studies

Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) studies are conducted to identify and assess potential hazards which originate from processes, equipment, and process plants. These studies are human-centered processes that are time and labor-intensive. Also, extensive expertise and experience in the field of process safety engineering are required. There have been several attempts by different research groups to (semi-)automate HAZOP studies in the past. Within this research, a knowledge-based framework for the automatic generation of HAZOP worksheets was developed. Compared to other approaches, the focus is on representing semantic relationships between HAZOP relevant concepts under consideration of the degree of abstraction. In the course of this, expert knowledge from the process and plant safety (PPS) domain is embedded within the ontological model. Based on that, a reasoning algorithm based on semantic reasoners is developed to identify hazards and operability issues in a HAZOP similar manner. An advantage of the proposed method is that by modeling causal relationships between HAZOP concepts, automatically generated but meaningless scenarios can be avoided. The results of the enhanced causation model are high quality extended HAZOP worksheets. The developed methodology is applied within a case study that involves a hexane storage tank. The quality and quantity of the automatically generated results agree with the original worksheets. Thus the ontology-based reasoning algorithm is well-suited to identify hazardous scenarios and operability issues. Node-based analyses involving multiple process units can also be carried out by a slight adjustment of the method. The presented method can help to support HAZOP study participants and non-experts in conducting HAZOP studies.     

我国安全生产科学技术研究与应用最新进展

从安全生产科研队伍和中介机构、人才培养、实验室建设、科技成果产出、科研成果转化及其产业化等方面全面总结了近年来我国安全科技方面取得的成绩;同时从安全科技体制机制、基础条件、基础理论研究、投入等方面探讨和分析了存在的主要问题及严重不足;提出了安全生产科学技术在安全基础理论、关键技术、推广应用、资源整合、科研机制等方面的对策建议。研究表明,近年来我国安全生产科技工作成绩突出,问题也很多,应该用创新和改革的思路及勇气进一步推动安全生产科技的快速发展。     

地铁高架车站火灾时人员疏散的性能化设计

地铁高架车站的人员安全疏散设计的原则是首先需要满足《地铁设计规范规》的要求,同时也要满足火灾工程学的安全疏散要求。本文首先介绍了地铁高架车站人员疏散通道的性能化设计过程和方法。选取广州地铁四号线典型高架车站,采用火灾场模拟和人员疏散动力学模拟的方法,计算模拟高架车站的站厅火灾时的烟气蔓延过程,以及高架车站的人员疏散过程。研究指出现有的通道设计能够确保在火灾时人员能够安全疏散。计算过程和方法可为国内地铁高架车站的人员疏散设计提供参考。     

Advanced CFD modeling on vapor dispersion and vapor cloud explosion

The main objective of this study is to quantify the potential overpressures due to Vapor Cloud Explosions (VCEs) and the potential gas buildup by using Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) for onshore or offshore facilities.A series of CFD simulations and analyses have been performed for the various vapor dispersion scenarios, covering different release rates and release locations. The overpressure that could result from the potential VCE is assessed by CFD simulation for the largest explosive transient gas cloud. The results from the analyses also comprise an extensive picture of probable leak scenarios having the potential to make an explosive gas cloud.The CFD analysis results could be applied to provide input for detailed risk-based design and risk analysis, to find safe and cost-optimal design against explosions.     

Assessment of chemical process hazards in early design stages

A new method called SREST-layer-assessment method with automated software tool is presented that in a hierarchical approach reveals the degree of non-ideality of chemical processes with regard to SHE (safety, health and environment) aspects at different layers: the properties of the chemical substances involved (substance assessment layer (SAL)), possible interactions between the substances (reactivity assessment layer (RAL)), possible hazard scenarios resulting from the combination of substances and operating conditions in the various equipments involved (equipment assessment layer (EAL)), and the safety technologies that are required to run a process safely and in accordance with legal regulations (safety-technology assessment layer (STAL)). In RAL, EAL and STAL the main focus is put on process safety. A case study is used to show the principles of the method. It is demonstrated how the method can be used as a systematic tool to support chemical engineers and chemists in evaluating chemical process safety in early process development stages.     

Hydrogen explosion incident mitigation in steam reforming units through enhanced inspection and forecasting corrosion tools implementation

Hydrogen (H₂) explosion effects recently examined, are confirming the devastating loss scenarios to humans, environment, assets, and associated business interruption. H₂ production is a core process in refineries used in further process steps. Steam reforming of natural gas or a mix with naphtha or LPG is a common hydrogen production technique, where the latest technologies have adopted enhanced metallurgies to minimize explosion risk and the associated maintenance cost following plant degradation owing to corrosion effects. However, corrosion rates are still high in specific areas of piping and process equipment. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology based on semi-quantitative RBI modeling according to regulations by API and recent EN standards, adopting a family of linear regression forecasting models that depict the yearly corrosion rate (per corrosion loop) of a hydrogen production steam reforming unit; this is done under different operating conditions (e.g., temperature, pressure, and fluid speed), metallurgy and other related physicochemical variables. The model is based on the examination of both ultrasonic wall thinning measurements and the examination of quantitative crosslinking total corrosion effects along with the physicochemical properties prevailing in different plant corrosion loops. The outcome of the regression analysis is an expansive family of multivariable equations describing, with a defined accuracy, the yearly corrosion rate and associated lifespan forecast per corrosion loop, and per examined part. These equations were further utilized in a custom-made database that can be used as an additional loss prevention tool by the hydrogen production unit management team. Evaluation results regarding the tool efficiency are presented in the following of this paper.     

Multi-agent traffic simulations to estimate the impact of automated technologies on safety

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this article was to develop a multi-agent traffic simulation methodology to estimate the potential road safety improvements of automated vehicle technologies.

Methods: We developed a computer program that merges road infrastructure data with a large number of vehicles, drivers, and pedestrians. Human errors are induced by modeling inattention, aimless driving, insufficient safety confirmation, misjudgment, and inadequate operation. The program was applied to simulate traffic in a prescribed area in Tsukuba city. First, a 100% manual driving scenario was set to simulate traffic for a total preset vehicle travel distance. The crashes from this simulation were compared with real-world crash data from the prescribed area from 2012 to 2017. Thereafter, 4 additional scenarios of increasing levels of automation penetration (including combinations of automated emergency braking [AEB], lane departure warning [LDW], and SAE Level 4 functions) were implemented to estimate their impact on safety.

Results: Under manual driving, the system simulated a total of 859 crashes including single-car lane departure, car-to-car, and car-to-pedestrian crashes. These crashes tended to occur in locations similar to real-world crashes. The number of crashes predicted decreased to 156 cases with increasing level of automation. All of the technologies considered contributed to the decrease in crashes. Crash reductions attributable to AEB and LDW in the simulations were comparable to those reported in recent field studies. For the highest levels of automation, no assessment data were available and hence the results should be carefully treated. Further, in modeling automated functions, potentially negative aspects such as sensing failure or human overreliance were not incorporated.

Conclusions: We developed a multi-agent traffic simulation methodology to estimate the effect of different automated vehicle technologies on safety. The crash locations resulting from simulations of manual driving within a limited area in Japan were preliminary assessed by comparison with real-world crash data collected in the same area. Increasing penetration levels of AEB and LDW led to a large reduction in both the frequency and severity of rear-end crashes, followed by car-to-car head-on crashes and single-vehicle lane departure crashes. Preliminary estimations of the potential safety improvements that may be achieved with highly automated driving technologies were also obtained.