鄱阳湖流域水文效应对气候变化的响应

以鄱阳湖流域为研究区,以地表 地下耦合的分布式水文模型WATLAC为模拟工具,探讨流域水资源对气候变化的响应。水文模型以2000～2008年为模拟期,以流域河道日径流量来率定（2000～2005年）与验证模型（2006～2008年）并取得了满意的模拟效果。基于此,假定未来气候变化情景方案,通过径流量、土壤蒸发量和基流量来探讨气候变化对流域水资源的影响。结果表明,径流量与基流量对降雨变化有着较强的敏感性,而土壤蒸发量对温度变化的敏感性较强。在降雨一定条件下,水文变量均与气温变化近似呈线性关系;在气温情景一定条件下,水文变量均与降雨变化呈非线性关系。随着降水的减少,气温对径流、土壤蒸发和基流的影响也随之减弱;气温对上述变量的显著影响主要表现在降水增加的情况下。相同的气温变化情景下,降水增加比降水减少对径流量的影响更加显著,降水减少比降水增加对土壤蒸发量与基流量的影响更加显著,表明降水变化对水文变量有着不同程度和方向的影响作用     

Land cover transitions and effects of transhumance on available forage biomass of rangelands in Benin

This study examined the effects of transhumance pressure on total abavoe-ground biomass and forage availability on rangelands in Benin. We also investigated the implications of land cover transitions on rangelands over a 31-year period. Our work was carried out in three regions of Benin representing distinct phytogeographic regimes: Ketou, Tchaourou, and Sinende. Ground-truthing and biomass sampling of the herbaceous and phanaerophyte strata were carried out between the 2016 peak vegetation period and the onset of the 2017 rainy season. Herbaceous biomass was determined by destructive sampling, and biomass of shrub and trees was estimated using non-destructive sampling and allometric equations. Historical and present-day Landsat data allowed an analysis of land cover change for the 1986–2002 and 2002–2017 periods. Land cover analyses yielded evidence of significant expansion of agricultural areas, especially in the latter period. The data also revealed progressive landscape fragmentation and transformations to a land cover of reduced total phytomass. There were no long-term effects of transhumance on trees, but likely on herbaceous biomass. Land cover changes in the study regions seem primarily the result of population pressure, infrastructural changes, persisting norms, and traditions regarding environmental management and the increasing popularity of livestock keeping as an insurance strategy. Rangeland transformations had negative impacts on transhumant herds’ mobility and forage availability. As rangeland stability and consent between agricultural and pastoral land users are at a tipping point, informed policies, and land use planning that foster compromises among all stakeholders are needed.

     

长江流域土地利用/覆被变化的大尺度水文效应

土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对流域水文过程具有重要的长期影响作用。针对土地利用覆被变化对大型流域水文过程的影响程度,利用构建的长江流域分布式水文模型分析了土地利用变化情景下的水文效应特征。结果显示:分布式水文模型综合考虑了下垫面土壤、坡度、植被等特征,可以较好的反映降水发生后水分在不同土壤、植被和地形条组合件下,蒸散、地表和地下径流等组分的运移过程。根据不同土地覆被类型的径流成分差异,以及长江流域实际可供调节的土地利用方式,流域现有土地利用格局中农林地依然具有较大的转换空间。根据典型流域中预设的农林地转换情景下的径流效应看,各种情景虽然对流域径流总量变化影响较小,但对蒸散、地表径流和基流可以产生显著影响。其中,林地增加使基流最高提升超过15%,同时可使地表径流下降近5%,两者对蒸散的改变在1%左右,对径流总量变化幅度则只有0.7%左右。不同情景下的水文响应模式反映了未来土地利用调整的水文效应,因此可以基于不同的径流效应,开展有利于综合发挥流域持水能力的空间规划,提升林地所占比重。     

Exploring the linkages between river water chemistry and watershed characteristics using GIS-based catchment and locality analyses

A typology of land characteristics for the Humber catchment in central/eastern England is identified in relation to land use, hydrology and demographic, topographic and geological characteristics, using GIS and statistical analyses. Empirical relationships between land characteristics and water quality were examined in relation to the spatial variability in water quality across the Humber catchment. Analyses of relationships between land characteristics and water quality were undertaken at two hierarchical scales: (1) individual catchments and (2) localities of 10 km radius draining to each sampling site. The importance of urban and agricultural sources was identified, together with a hydrological component linked to dilution of point source inputs and mobilisation of specific sediment-associated contaminants in higher-energy (higher-flow) environments. High-solubility (dissolved) chemical determinands (such as B, Cl and SO₄), which undergo conservative transport through the river network, show the strongest linkages with land characteristics at the catchment scale. Cr, Zn and Ca show stronger correlations with land characteristics at the locality rather than the catchment scale, indicating that the concentrations of these determinands are more closely linked to the availability of localised sources. This work provides a starting point for investigating how changes in land use and management of drainage basins might impact river water quality at the regional scale and fluxes to the coastal zone, by providing a mechanism for examining linkages between regional-scale land characteristics and river water quality. The next step requires development of the approach within a more rigorous statistical framework and the extension of the regional analysis within a wider national and international context. Electronic Publication     

Land use changes and its impacts on water resources in Nile Delta region using remote sensing techniques

Sustainable water resources management plans depend on reliable monitoring of land use –land cover (LULC) changes. The use of the remote sensing techniques in LULC changes detection brings consistency and reliability to the decision maker at regional scale. Three temporal data sets of images were used to obtain the land cover changes in this study: Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1984, and Landsat-7 enhanced Thematic Mapper acquired in 2000 and 2005 consequently. Each temporal data set consists of four Landsat scenes, which were mosaicked to cover the whole Nile Delta. Two different supervised classification algorithms were implemented to produce classification maps in thematic form. Support vector machine showed higher classification accuracies in comparison with maximum likelihood classification. The results indicated that the rapid imbalance changes occurred among three land cover classes (urban, desert, and agricultural land). These changes powered the land degradation and land fragmentation processes over the agricultural land exclusively due to urban encroachment. Slight land cover changes were detected between fish farms and surface water land cover classes.     

Characteristics of deforestation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) between the 1980s and 2000s

There has been a significant lack of land cover change studies in relation to deforestation in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea). The purpose of this study is to characterize deforestation in North Korea through land cover change trajectory and spatial analysis. We used three 30-m gridded land cover data sets for North Korea representing the conditions of the late 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, respectively, as well as a digital elevation model. We examined the land cover trajectories during the two decades, i.e., which land cover became which at the pixel level. In addition, we calculated topographic characteristics of deforested pixels. Major findings from the study are summarized as follows: (1) net forest loss in North Korea was negligible in the latter decade compared to the former (>5000 km²), whereas other land cover changes were still active; (2) as a result of deforestation, forest land cover became mostly agricultural, particularly in the latter decade (95 %); (3) expansion of agricultural land cover continued during the time, increasing by >42 %; and (4) elevation and slope of deforested areas decreased slightly in the latter decade. The key contribution of the study is that it has demonstrated which land cover became which at the 30-m pixel level, complementing existing studies that examined overall forest stock in North Korea.     

基于景观尺度的流域土地覆被变化及其水文响应

水资源短缺已成为限制华北地区社会经济发展的主要因子之一，其中山区来水减少问题已成为该区域水资源研究亟待解决的关键问题。采用景观格局分析法及统计学方法对华北土石山区典型流域--红门川流域土地/覆被变化及其水文动态响应进行分析。结果表明：(1)1990～2005年流域景观呈破碎化趋势，其中，优势景观林地在研究时段内面积变化不大；耕地、建设用地面积增加趋势显著，增幅分别为431%和444%；水域减少趋势最为明显，减幅达208%。(2)土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流有显著调节作用：随着土地结构不断优化，森林、耕地面积的增加，1998～2005年流域平均年径流系数较1990～1998年下降77%；丰、平和枯水年径流系数则分别减少64%、31%和85%；当剔除降水因素后，土地利用景观结构优化使得月径流系数减少16%～100%。(3)土地利用/覆被变化对流域径流的调节作用呈现季节性,植物生长季径流调节尤为显著     

Anthropogenic impacts on suspended sediment load in the Upper Yangtze river

Climate change and human disturbance drive catchment erosion and increase riverine sediment load sensitively in small and medium-sized watersheds. This is not always true in large basins, where aggregation and buffering effects have dampen the ability to determine the driving forces of sedimentation. Even though there are significant responses to sedimentation in large river basins, it is difficult to get a precise quantitative assessment of specific drivers. This paper develops a methodology to identify driving forces that change suspended sediment load in the Upper Yangtze river. Annual runoff and sediment load data from 1954 to 2005 at the Yichang gauging station in the Upper Yangtze basin, daily precipitation data from 60 meteorological stations, and survey data on reservoir sediment were collected for the study. Sediment load/rainfall erosivity (S/R), is a new proxy indicator introduced to reflect human activities. Since the mid-1980s, S/R in the Upper Yangtze has dramatically declined from 0.21 to 0.03 (×10¹⁰ t ha h MJ⁻¹ mm⁻¹), indicating that human activity has played a key role in the decline of the suspended sediment load. Before the mid-1980s, a higher average S/R is attributed to large-scale deforestation and land reclamation. A significant sediment decrease occurred from 1959 to 1961 during an extreme drought condition, and an increase in sedimentation in 1998 coincided with an extreme flood event, which was well recorded in the S/R curve. This indicates that the S/R proxy is able to distinguish anthropogenic from climate impacts on suspended sediment load, but is not necessarily indicatory in extreme climate events. In addition, typical drivers of riverine sediment load variation including soil conservation projects, reservoirs construction, and land use/cover change are discussed.     

Impact of peri-urban agriculture on runoff and soil erosion in the rapidly developing metropolitan area of Jakarta,Indonesia

Negative effects of land use change on water resources are among the most important environmental problems widely found in rapidly developing urban areas. Preserving green open spaces, including peri-urban agriculture, has been emphasized in urban planning to maintain or enhance the water catchment capacity of a landscape. However, the effect of agriculture on water-related landscape functions varies depending on the type, distribution, and management of farmland. This paper analyzes the dynamics of agricultural land and its effect on runoff and soil erosion, in order to support agricultural land management in Jabodetabek Metropolitan Area (JMA) with Indonesia’s capital Jakarta at its core. In 2012, agricultural land in JMA covered 53% of the total area, mostly located in the peri-urban zone. Peak Flow and Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) models were used to quantify the increase of runoff and soil erosion in the three most important water catchment areas in JMA caused by an expansion of dryland agriculture and mixed gardens from 1983 to 2012. Critical zones, which generate most of the runoff and soil erosion, were identified in each of the catchment areas. While reforestation of farmland in these zones will be only an option on steep slopes given the great food demands and rural livelihood, adoption of soil and water conservation practices can make a substantial contribution to reduce flood risks and conserve the productivity of agricultural land. A specific set of policy incentives is recommended considering agricultural land use types distribution and their impact on runoff and soil erosion.     

Changing land use/cover patterns and implications for sustainable environmental management in the Irangi Hills,central Tanzania

This article examines the changes in land-use/cover types in the Irangi Hills, central Tanzania during the last 45 years and how such changes have influenced environmental and agricultural sustainability in the area. The spatial and temporal changes of land-use/cover were analysed through aerial photographs interpretation. Local perceptions and experiences of changes were addressed through household interviews and field observations. Results from this study show that during the last 45 years open and wooded grasslands, and other tree-cover types covered about 40% of the land area, ranging from 29% in 1960 to 43–45% between 1977 and 1992. Also, during the same period both the total area and spatial distribution of cultivated fields varied greatly. The cultivated area increased from 31% in 1977 to 35% in 1992, mainly due to agricultural expansion into areas formerly used for grazing and in sandy watercourses that shrunk by 55% between 1977 and 1992. The spatial distribution of the different land-use/cover types is influenced by variations in the scale of soil erosion and soil-conservation initiatives implemented in the Irangi Hills since the early 1970s. However, with increasing pressure on the land, and the declining capacity of the soil conservation authority, sustaining agricultural production in the area remains a major challenge.     

南水北调中线水源地汉江上游流域主要生态环境问题及对策

汉江上游是南水北调中线水源地，流域生态环境建设是保障水源地水质安全的关键。针对上游流域水环境污染、土地利用以及水土流失等重大生态环境问题，结合流域数字高程模型及水质调查对其进行了系统分析。结果表明：（1）丹江流域、库区流域及汉中盆地水质较差，CODMn和氨氮成为水源区主要污染物；（2）各子流域区植被覆盖占各自面积的712%~957%，表明流域植被覆盖较好，但沿河岸100 m范围内农业用地占292%~434%，且多为坡耕地；（3）流域水土流失严重，2000年左右流域侵蚀图显示汉江源头、秦岭南及大巴山北均出现了大片年均侵蚀模数>2 200 t/km2的区域，且有日益增强的趋势。提出加大水环境污染整治力度、加强农业用肥管理及河岸带建设、水土保持建设以及加强流域水环境及水土保持监测和科研工作等对策。     

基于时序植被指数的湖北省物候空间特征分析

湖北省地貌类型多样，植被类型丰富，也是农业大省，物候信息监测对于自然生态和农业生产具有重要意义。使用MODIS MOD13Q1 产品中的归一化植被指数数据集，运用时间序列谐波分析法重构 NDVI时序曲线，并结合土地覆被数据，采用物候特征动态阈值法获取湖北省植被物候空间分布特征，分析不同土地覆被类型的物候指标。结果表明：(1)湖北省西部山区、东南部和东北部丘陵地区，多为自然植被覆盖，且植被状况良好，NDVI最大值达到0.75以上，大部分区域NDVI最小值在0.6以上。中部江汉平原和农作物区域NDVI变化受农业耕种方式影响较大，与自然植被NDVI变化特征有所差异。(2)不同土地覆被类型物候特征各异。湖北省大部分区域的植被在2月到3月进入生长季，11月到12月结束生长，襄阳地区呈现相反的特征。耕地、裸地、水体等受人类影响较大的土地覆被类型生长季长度较短，开始时间较晚，结束较早。森林、草地、灌丛等自然植被生长季长度较长，开始较早、结束较晚。(3)物候参数由于地形地貌、地表覆被类型、人类和自然因素的影响具有显著的差异，对区域植被生态状况、不同土地覆被类型物候空间分布特点的分析，结果对于植被生态保护、植被分类、农业区划等都具有参考意义。     

一个新的分布式水文模型在鄱阳湖赣江流域的验证

考虑同类模型在模拟大尺度流域时存在的一些弱点，开发了基于单元网格，并且结构较为简单、参数数量较少的分布式水文模型WATLAC。为了验证该模型在大尺度流域长时间序列的模拟效果，选取鄱阳湖流域的最大子流域--赣江流域（817万km2）为验证区域。流域的空间非均匀性由单元网格离散并模拟。根据下垫面数据精度，选取4 km×4 km的离散网格尺寸，并应用ArcGIS等软件建立流域网格信息，生成模型输入数据。采用1960~1989年外洲站和峡江站的实测资料对模型进行了验证。率定期（1960~1969年）两水文站日、月和年径流确定性系数在081~093，Ens系数在079~099，年径流统计量相对误差均低于8%；校核期（1970~1989年）两水文站日、月和年径流确定性系数在076~092，Ens系数在075~091，年径流统计量相对误差均低于2%。结果显示，模拟的径流量与实测值吻合良好，模型在赣江流域得到了很好的验证。模型对赣江流域具有较强的适用性，在流域水资源管理中具有较好的应用前景。     

一个新的分布式水文模型在鄱阳湖赣江流域的验证

考虑同类模型在模拟大尺度流域时存在的一些弱点，开发了基于单元网格，并且结构较为简单、参数数量较少的分布式水文模型WATLAC。为了验证该模型在大尺度流域长时间序列的模拟效果，选取鄱阳湖流域的最大子流域——赣江流域（817万km2）为验证区域。流域的空间非均匀性由单元网格离散并模拟。根据下垫面数据精度，选取4 km×4 km的离散网格尺寸，并应用ArcGIS等软件建立流域网格信息，生成模型输入数据。采用1960~1989年外洲站和峡江站的实测资料对模型进行了验证。率定期（1960~1969年）两水文站日、月和年径流确定性系数在081~093，Ens系数在079~099，年径流统计量相对误差均低于8%；校核期（1970~1989年）两水文站日、月和年径流确定性系数在076~092，Ens系数在075~091，年径流统计量相对误差均低于2%。结果显示，模拟的径流量与实测值吻合良好，模型在赣江流域得到了很好的验证。模型对赣江流域具有较强的适用性，在流域水资源管理中具有较好的应用前景。     

The relationship between climate and streamflow in the Namoi Basin

The Namoi River Basin (42 000 km²) is located in the Murray-Darling Basin, west of the Great Australian Dividing Range in northeast New South Wales (NSW), and includes some of the most fertile agricultural lands in Australia. One of the environmental concerns for this basin is erosion and its effects on downstream water quality. Models that relate climate, land use, and these concerns require measurements of climate (rainfall and temperature) and streamflow. These measurements were examined as a preliminary to the modelling. The residual mass technique was used to examine the temporal variation of annual rainfalls over the approximately 100 years of available data, and significant spatial variations were found in annual rainfall trends over the catchment. Streamflow was examined at key river gauging stations. The impact of recent large-scale irrigation operations was clearly observed. The impact of changing land use and land management on runoff ratios was examined for eight subcatchments. Temperature variations were examined for the four major towns in the catchment. The duration of the temperature data is too short to make any comments about long-term trends. Significant variations were observed in an east to west direction.     

洞庭湖流域分布式水文模型

流域出口径流观测序列是水文模型参数率定重要依据,不受水文站控制区域的模型应用是水文研究关注点之一。首先根据水文站观测资料建立洞庭湖流域四水控制站之上基于水文响应单元的分布式水文模型,在此基础上结合实验、同质移植和虚拟水库等方法,将分布式水文模型拓展到包含无径流站控制区域的丘陵区间和平原圩垸区,最终实现了洞庭湖全流域水文过程模拟。结果表明:在较完备土壤、地形、土地利用等空间数据支持下,通过合理的流域划分和水文响应单元定义,建立的流域分布式水文模型可以较好地在水文响应单元尺度反应降水发生后蒸散、地表径流、土壤和地下水的响应特征。而基于观测实验及基流分割等方法获取的关键水文过程特征对模型参数优化的认识,可以提高模型参数率定效率,在较少优化迭代运算后既可使月径流模拟的效率系数NSE和确定性系数R²值高于0.81(日过程高于0.62)。借助参数同质移植和虚拟水库解决了区间和圩垸区无控制站区域水文过程模拟。在全流域水文过程的模拟中,基流指数和蒸散比例与实际过程具有较好的一致性。说明相关参数较好地反映了其物理机制,具备在相似气候及下垫面条件区域进行同质移植的基础,圩垸区径流交换采用虚拟水库的处理方式也合理可行。     

长江上游不同地形条件下的土地利用/覆盖变化

基于1〖DK〗∶10万的1980、2000和2005年的土地利用/覆盖数据和90 m分辨率的DEM数据，采用转移概率矩阵和地形 面积频度方法，分析了1980~2005年长江上游地区不同地形因子条件下的土地利用/覆盖变化。结果表明：1）1980~2000年，草地、林地和农业用地面积变化趋势与2000~2005年相反。后5 a，可能由于退耕的土地出现反弹现象增多，草地和林地面积出现缩减而农业用地面积增加。两个分析时段主要的土地利用/覆盖类型变化趋势类似，包括农业用地向林地和草地的转化，林地向农业用地的转化以及草地向裸地的转化。2）农业用地和城镇用地主要分布于低海拔区而林地、草地则主要分布于高海拔区。低海拔区主要是退耕还林和城市化过程。高海拔区主要是林地的退化消失和草地退化沙化过程。3）农业用地在坡度段10~25°所占面积比例最大。林地用地面积比例随坡度变陡呈现规则递增，城镇用地分布趋势与之相反。近年裸地趋向分布于缓坡区。坡度0~5°的区域主要是草地退化沙化过程；5~10°坡度段主要是退耕还林过程；大于10°的区域造林工程与森林退化并存。4）各种土地利用/覆盖类型对不同坡向的适宜性相差不大。各种坡向上土地利用/覆盖类型变化类似.     

中国东南亚热带小流域混合农业区水文过程的实验研究(简报)

1ScopeIn the Sun Jia Catchment several gauging in-stallations are carefully put up to elucidate the hy-drology and the matter fluxes through the catch-ment.At present,it is already possible to quantifydistinct spatial differences in principal water flu-xes.The setup bears the potential to further deep-en the understanding of the small scale processesinvolved in lateral water fluxes and soil erosion.Multi-point monitoring of soil water potentials atvarious soil depths together with hydrograph…     

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

A new general mechanistic river model for radionuclides from single pulse fallouts which can be run by readily accessible driving variables

This paper presents a new general, process-based river model for substances such as radionuclides from single pulse fallouts. The new model has been critically tested using data from 13 European rivers contaminated by radiocesium from the Chernobyl accident. This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases; and also concentrations in sediments and fish, but the latter aspects are not discussed in this paper) at defined river sites. The model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the upstream catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow ( approximately dry land) areas and outflow ( approximately wetland) areas. The model also accounts for time-dependent fixation of substances in the catchment. The catchment area sub-model is based on a previous catchment model, which has been tested with very good results for radiocesium, radiostrontium and Ca-concentrations (from liming operations). The new river model is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, continentality, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, soil type (percentages or organic and sandy soils), fallout and month of fallout. Modelled values have been compared to independent empirical data from 10 rivers sites (91 data on radiocesium in water) covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 4000 to 180 000 km(2), precipitation from 500 to 960 mm/yr and fallout from 1700 to 660 000 Bq/m(2)). The new model predicts very well--when modelled values are compared to empirical data, the slope is perfect (1.0) and the r(2)-value is 0.90. This is good giving the fact that there are also uncertainties in the empirical data, which set a limit to the achieved predictive power, as expressed by the r(2)-value.