Did Child Restraint Laws Globally Converge? Examining 40 Years of Policy Diffusion

Objective: The objective of the current study is to determine what factors have been associated with the global adoption of mandatory child restraint laws (ChRLs) since 1975.

Methods: In order to determine what factors explained the global adoption of mandatory ChRLs, Weibull models were analyzed. To carry out this analysis, 170 countries were considered and the time risk corresponded to 5,146 observations for the period 1957–2013. The dependent variable was first time to adopt a ChRL. Independent variables representing global factors were the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank's (WB) road safety global campaign; the Geneva Convention on Road Traffic; and the United Nation's (UN) 1958 Vehicle Agreement. Independent variables representing regional factors were the creation of the European Transport Safety Council and being a Commonwealth country. Independent variables representing national factors were population; gross domestic product (GDP) per capita; political violence; existence of road safety nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and existence of road safety agencies. Urbanization served as a control variable. To examine regional dynamics, Weibull models for Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Commonwealth were also carried out.

Results: Empirical estimates from full Weibull models suggest that 2 global factors and 2 national factors are significantly associated with the adoption of this measure. The global factors explaining adoption are the WHO and WB's road safety global campaign implemented after 2004 (P <.01), and the UN's 1958 Vehicle Agreement (P <.001). National factors were GDP (P <.01) and existence of road safety agencies (P <.05). The time parameter ρ for the full Weibull model was 1.425 (P <.001), suggesting that the likelihood of ChRL adoption increased over the observed period of time, confirming that the diffusion of this policy was global. Regional analysis showed that the UN's Convention on Road Traffic was significant in Asia, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was significant in Europe and North America, and the global campaign was in Africa. In Commonwealth and European and North American countries, the existence of road safety agencies was also positively associated with ChRL adoption.

Conclusions: Results of the world models suggest that the WHO and WB's global road safety campaign was effective in disseminating ChRLs after 2004. Furthermore, regions such as Asia and Europe and North America were early adopters since specific regional and national characteristics anticipated the introduction of this policy before 2004. In this particular case, the creation of the European Transport Safety Council was fundamental in promoting ChRLs. Thus, in order to introduce conditions to more rapidly diffuse road safety measures across lagging regions, the maintenance of global efforts and the creation of road safety regional organizations should be encouraged. Lastly, the case of ChRL convergence illustrates how mechanisms of global and regional diffusion need to be analytically differentiated in order better to assess the process of policy diffusion.     

Analysis of train derailments and collisions to identify leading causes of loss incidents in rail transport of dangerous goods in Canada

The Canadian railway industry has improved safety performance in the last decade as measured by freight loss incidents per billion gross ton-miles. Further improvements in safety performance require a deeper analysis of the leading causes to identify weaknesses in implementing safety systems. In this paper, we classify the causes of railway loss incidents using a Safety Management System (SMS) framework to identify system weaknesses. The role of human factors is further analyzed through the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) approach. For this, we utilized data from 42 main track derailments and collisions involving the transport of dangerous goods in Canada between 2007 and 2018, which have been investigated by the Transportation Safety Board of Canada in detail. Associations between adjacent sub-categories of the HFACS framework are analyzed to identify any interdependency that exists between active and latent errors using a Chi-square test and Kruskal's lambda analysis. Furthermore, we implement the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method and the Analytical Network Process (ANP) to identify causal relationships between different sub-categories of the HFACS framework and calculate the weighted influence of each sub-category on main track derailments and collisions. Finally, a comparison is made between this work and others', which have analyzed human factors in the railway industry. There is good agreement between the results of these studies that highlight the importance of supervisory and organizational factors in the prevention of railway loss incidents. Based on these findings, we make recommendations to reduce railway loss incidents.     

基于铁路客运专线的旅客联合运输安全问题研究

系统分析了客运专线联合运输存在的主要安全问题及其产生原因。指出旅客联合运输安全问题的关键在各种运输方式的衔接处,其核心因素包括:信息不共享、安全管理缺乏统一规范、交通枢纽软硬件设施有缺陷3个方面,进而针对上述缺陷问题提出相应措施,采用安全审计方法来具体地实现对联合运输安全问题的整改、提高系统安全性能,并对交通枢纽疏散进行案例分析。     

Testing the validity of the “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF) used to assess UK safety measures

The “value of a prevented fatality” (VPF), the maximum amount that it is notionally reasonable to pay for a safety measure that will reduce by one the expected number of preventable premature deaths in a large population, is published by the UK Department for Transport (DfT). The figure, updated for changes in GDP per head, is used by the DfT, the Health and Safety Executive and other UK regulatory bodies as well as very widely in the process, nuclear and other industries as the standard by which to judge how much to spend to reduce harm to humans. The paper tests the validity of the 1999 study on which the VPF is based and finds that that study fails numerous tests of its validity. It is concluded that there is no evidential base for the VPF that has been used for many years in the UK and is still in standard use today. Given the difficulties evident in the interpretation of survey results, an urgent re-appraisal is needed of alternative statistical methodologies that can allow robust regulatory and industry safety decision making and, vitally, give adequate protection to the UK public and to those working in the UK's transport, process, nuclear and other industries.     

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of commercial scale supply chain of hydrogen fuel and implications for industry and society

This paper is derived from a study on the safety of bulk transport and storage of hydrogen as a fuel, carried out by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) for the Department for Transport (DfT). The aim of the study was to identify the knowledge and data required to develop fully a risk assessment for a hydrogen delivery and storage infrastructure. The methodology used was to begin to carry out a risk assessment for a representative delivery and storage supply chain, using a risk assessment methodology commensurate with the availability of necessary data. Semi-quantitative risk assessment was carried out through top-down HAZID brainstorming, consequence modelling using commercially available software, and use of a risk matrix.Finally through the risk assessment carried out and relevant literature review, the gaps in hazard identification, consequence modelling and frequency assessment, which should be filled to develop a quantified methodology, were compiled.Using data for current UK LPG consumption, comparisons were made between hydrogen and LPG for mode of failures and number of trips required to supply equivalent energy demand. The implications of using ammonia as a hydrogen carrier (hydrogen is within the ammonia molecule) and regulatory implications on hydrogen fuelling or storage sites are also discussed.     

Occupational safety and health in Spain

Occupational Health and Safety in Spain has improved considerably over the last decade, most likely due to a new concept where an overall concept of safety culture is defined. Important changes in industrial safety, hygiene, and psychosocial factors present an optimistic panorama for the future of Spain. Despite this general improvement, according to the European Convergence Program, Spanish statistics still offer far from good safety results. In fact, according to 1997 official statistics, Spain had the highest incidence rate for nonfatal occupational accidents of all European Union (EU) countries, and occupied third place for fatal accidents. This paper summarizes the organizational structure of the Spanish National System of Health & Safety at Work, its effective health and safety laws, and statistics on the Spanish work environment obtained from III Spanish National Survey on Work Conditions (1997). The researchers hope that the findings of this work will have an impact on Spanish industry that will subsequently bring about improvements in work conditions and develop assessment and intervention models in occupational health and safety, from a theoretical position integrating environmental, human, and organizational factors.     

基于N-K模型的海上交通安全风险因素耦合分析

为定量分析海上交通安全风险因素间的影响关系,识别导致海上交通事故的关键因素,分别从单因素、双因素和多因素的角度分析了人、船、环境、管理等风险因素间的耦合关系,运用N-K模型构建了海上交通安全风险耦合度量模型,结合中国海事局、德国联邦海事事故调查局、英国船舶事故调查局和美国国家运输安全委员会等海事调查机构公布的710起海上交通事故,利用所构建的模型计算出不同风险耦合的发生概率和风险值。结果表明:风险耦合因素越多,海上交通事故的发生概率越高;人的因素是引发海上交通事故的重要原因。     

Recognition primed decision making and the organisational response to accidents: Überlingen and the challenges of safety improvement in European air traffic management

The pioneering work of Rasmussen, Reason and their colleagues has greatly improved our understanding of the longer term causes of adverse events in safety-critical systems. Far less attention has been paid to the organisational decision making that characterises the response to accidents and incidents. Therefore, this paper examines the interventions by national and international agencies after one of the most serious accidents in European Air Traffic Management. Insights from Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) and Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPDM) are used to explain the complex ways in which technical, organisational and political constraints shape and support the decisions and actions taken by different agencies. These constraints affect national and international safety organisations in the aftermath of major accidents. In particular, this paper uses NDM and RPDM to assess the interventions made by Swiss Federal agencies and by the Air Navigation Service provider (ANSP) following the Überlingen mid-air collision in July 1st 2002. Later sections show that there are strong similarities between the technical, organisational and political constraints that informed their decisions and the factors that directed the work of the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). Some of EUROCONTROL’s safety responsibilities (i.e. the safety regulation elements) will in the future pass to the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), an Agency of the European Commission. This transfer of responsibilities has the potential to increase the powers available to ensure the implementation of recommendations following future accidents. At the same time there is a danger that key aspects of existing safety and regulatory activities may be overlooked. It is critical, therefore, that the same level of audit and monitoring be conducted on the European agencies during the transition period as is proposed for service providers and national regulatory agencies. It is important to ensure that these changes do not inadvertently lead to the loss of insights from previous adverse events.     

Insights into process safety incidents from an analysis of CSB investigations

Many incidents have helped to define and develop process safety. Each has provided valuable learning opportunities. However, it is even more important to identify insights that can be obtained from an analysis of a large set of incidents that represents those that typically occur. This larger picture illuminates trends and commonalities and provides learning opportunities that are even more important than the causes of any one individual incident.The Chemical Safety Board has published the results of over 60 investigations of process safety incidents. These data have been analyzed to identify commonalities and trends so that measures to help protect against future incidents can be developed. Recommendations are made to address key issues identified.     

Towards a European energy risks monitor to consistently map safety and security risks of different energy infrastructures

After mapping of current European Union regulations on the management of accident risks related to natural hazards and different industrial activities, this paper discusses insights from past and current European Commission initiatives on harmonisation of assessment and management of safety risks. The problem of safety comparison and risk/benefit communication is of critical importance for sustainable decision making. For the specific case of the energy sector, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) and DG TREN (Directorate General for Transport and Energy) have recently started two connected initiatives, called energy risks monitor (ERMON) and safety and security of energy infrastructures in a comparative view (SEIF-CV). While ERMON deals with the development of a methodology and corresponding web-based information system to cross-compare in a consistent way safety, risk and reliability performances of different energy systems (fossil, nuclear, renewables) across their specific fuel cycle chains, SEIF-CV creates a corresponding network of stakeholders in the energy sector as well as the necessary review and user panels for ERMON. Objectives and status of ERMON and SEIF-CV are described.     

Technical note on the contribution of sociotechnical factors to accidents notified to MARS

Not least due to the new `Seveso II Directive', Safety Management Systems (SMS) have become a hot topic in the `safety business'. To reveal in a structured way how organisations manage safety at their plants, classification schemes can be applied to identify plant-specific precautions on different hierarchical levels, e.g. from `top level' equipment reliability to `bottom level' safety climate. In this paper, such a model is used to classify the accidents reported to the European Commission's Major Accident Reporting System (MARS) according to the levels on which failures resulting in actual accidents did occur, and to cross-compare the levels of causation with the overall `severity' of the accidents. It is analytically shown that ∼66% of the accidents are caused by latent SMS failures, and that especially those accidents which are caused by failures in the `deepest layers of latency' have significantly higher `severities' than accidents caused by more `immediate' failures. In other words, it is quite likely that the deeper the underlying causes of an accident, the more `severe' its consequences. Implementing SMS is thus worth the effort.     

关于安全经济学的探讨

本文主要论述了如下基本概念问题: 1、安全的主要经济功能是保障社会经济的增值和有效地减少事故的经济损失。本文试图构造增值函数I(S)和损失函数L(S)来描述其功能。 2、安全经济学的基本任务是研究安全的经济效益和安全的经济利益规律,使其有效地调整和协调安全与经济的关系,指导安全经济决策。 3、本文试提出发展安全经济学应遵循的三个基本原理。 4、为综合揭示安全经济规律,本文还探讨了安全经济的功能函数F(S)、成本函数C(S)、负担函数B(S)和效益函数E(S)。 5、针对实际应用,本文还提出了一种安全投资的评价方法及其优化理论。     

Safety in fishing — learning from experience

This article critically examines the level of safety in some sections of the UK fishing industry not only by looking at the available statistics but also by examining actual recent case histories.In 1989 the UK Department of Transport established the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB). Case histories published by MAIB have been taken as the basis for the article in order to illustrate and draw lessons from incidents that occur in fishing.Fishing will always be a high risk profession but there are ways in which risks can be diminished. Many of the problems are due to vessels being built below the 12 m threshold at which the 1975 Safety Rules currently apply. Some of the vessels lack adequate reserve stability to withstand capsize in the dynamic situation and there are deficiences in design and safety equipment. The training programmes introduced by Seafish for Survival, Fire Fighting and First Aid are now mandatory for all new entrants and these have almost certainly resulted in the saving of lives. However, there needs to be a much greater awareness of accident prevention and the article makes a plea for this to be given more attention.Each case study is probably unique or there are some specific circumstances as to why the accident happened. Nevertheless, there are always underlying lessons to be learnt from every incident of this type, even if there is no loss of life or serious injury.     

Safety Recommendations — The engine that drives change

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) considers the recommendations it makes to prevent accidents and improve the safety of the United States transportation system to be its most important product.In its 25-year history the NTSB has made almost 9,000 safety recommendations covering needed improvements in all the modes of transportation to more than 1,250 recipients. These recommendations are made to anyone the NTSB believes can make the change that is necessary to improve safety. Recommendations have been directed to federal, State and local government agencies, private transportation companies, labor unions, trade associations and others.Overall, more than 80 percent of the NTSB's safety recommendations have been accepted by the recipients and the changes called for have been implemented. This has had a very significant positive impact on the safety of the US transportation system. The NTSB is very proud of this record. The changes that have taken place as a result of the NTSB's recommendations have saved thousands of lives and prevented many accidents.How has the NTSB achieved such a good record? The basic foundation and most important reason for this achievement is the NTSB's independence. This independence lends the NTSB credibility. Recipients of the NTSB's recommendations are more willing to carefully and seriously consider taking the action recommended. The second essential reason for the NTSB's credibility is the highly competent, technical qualifications of its investigators and the thoroughness of its investigations and studies. The NTSB also is very careful and prudent in making its recommendations. Each proposed recommendation is carefully evaluated to make sure it is practical, feasible and capable of being implemented. The credibility of the NTSB has grown over the years, and along with that has come an increase in the acceptance rate of the recommendations.This paper will describe the NTSB's safety recommendation program, how it achieves improved safety, and its important elements, such as the Most Wanted Safety Recommendation Program and the Safety Recommendation Information System.     

事物安全演化过程的基本理论研究

安全状态的演化过程是事物发展变化过程的重要组成部分.事物的安全演化过程符合从量变到质变的原理,即服从"安全流变-突变"规律.基于事物"安全流变-突变"规律,建立理论模型,并分析和描述事物的安全演化过程.事物"安全流变-突变"规律的研究为揭示事物的安全本质规律奠定了基础.     

Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network

Among the various techniques used for safety analysis of process systems, bow-tie (BT) analysis is becoming a popular technique as it represents an accident scenario from causes to effects. However, the BT application in the dynamic safety analysis is limited due to the static nature of its components, i.e. fault tree and event tree. It is therefore difficult in BT to take accident precursors into account to update the probability of events and the consequent risk. Also, BT is unable to represent conditional dependency. Event dependency is common among primary events and safety barriers. The current paper illustrates how Bayesian network (BN) helps to overcome these limitations. It has also been shown that BN can be used in dynamic safety analysis of a wide range of accident scenarios due to its flexible structure. This paper also introduces the application of probability adapting in dynamic safety analysis rather than probability updating. A case study from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board has been used to illustrate the application of both BT and BN techniques, with a comparison of the results from each technique.     

Factors contributing to US chemical plant process safety incidents from 2010 to 2020

Process safety incidents can result in injuries, fatalities, environmental impacts, facility damage, downtime & lost production, as well as impacts on a company's and industry's reputation. This study is focused on an analysis of the most commonly reported contributing factors to process safety incidents in the US chemical manufacturing industry. The database for the study contained 79 incidents from 2010 to 2019, partly investigated by the Chemical Safety Board (CSB). To be included in the study, the CSB archive of incident investigations were parsed to include only incidents which occurred at a company classified as 325 in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), assigned to businesses that participate in chemical manufacturing. For each incident, all of the identified contributing factors were catalogued in the database. From this list of identified contributing factors, it was possible to name the ‘top three’ contributing factors. The top three contributing factors cited for the chemical manufacturing industry were found to be: design; preventive maintenance; and safeguards, controls & layers of protection. The relationship between these top contributing factors and the most common OSHA citations was investigated as well. The investigation and citation history for NAICS 325 companies in the Occupational Safety & Health Administration (OSHA) citations database was then analysed to assess whether there was any overlap between the top reported contributing factors to process safety events and the top OSHA citations recorded for the industry. A database consisting of the inspection and citation history for the chemical manufacturing industry identified by NAICS code 325 was assembled for inspections occurring between 2010 and 2020 (August). The analysis of the citation history for the chemical manufacturing industry specifically, identified that the list of the top contributing factors to process safety incidents overlapped with the most common OSHA violations. This finding is relevant to industry stakeholders who are considering how to strategically invest resources for achieving maximum benefit – reducing process safety risk and simultaneously improving OSHA citation history.     

国外油气管道安全管理经验及启示

近年来,我国油气管道发展迅猛,管道数量激增;上世纪70!80年代修建的管道逐渐进入老龄化,管道事故呈上升趋势。文章对美国、加拿大和欧盟国家油气管道的发展现状和事故情况进行了介绍,重点对以美国为代表的国外油气管道安全管理先进经验进行了分析,并针对当前我国油气管道安全管理的形势和问题,提出了一些建议。     

Safety in high-risk helicopter operations: The role of additional crew in accident prevention

ObjectivesTo examine the causes associated with high risk helicopter operations, in particular external load and aerial application flight, and determine the role of crew management in accident mitigation strategies.MethodsData from the US National Transportation Safety Board online database were analyzed. Flight phases and types of rotor strike were added categories extracted from the narrative statements included in the accident reports.Results and recommendationsAerial application and external load accidents are characterized by high numbers of rollovers, rotor strikes and errors during preflight checks. Additional flight or ground crew may assist the pilot in maintaining a visual lookout. The number of accidents can be further reduced with adequate fuel management in which both pilot and ground crew can contribute. Although the ground crew can be both victim and cause of an accident, their supporting role has much to contribute to safety in high risk helicopter operations.     

Lessons learned from a supercritical pressure BLEVE in Nihon Dempa Kogyo Crystal Inc.

On December 7, 2009, a 50-foot-tall high-pressure vessel ruptured in the Nihon Dempa Kogyo Crystal, Inc. facility in Belvidere, Illinois. Several projectiles rapidly traveled outward from the facility, killing a truck driver 650 feet away and injuring an employee in another building 435 feet away. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from this incident both on causal and consequential aspects. Stress corrosion cracking was identified as the failure mechanism by the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board. After analyzing the operating conditions and the aftermath, this incident has been identified as a Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) under a supercritical pressure. A consequence analysis of the incident is performed where overpressure and fragment distance are calculated, together with safety distance estimation. Additionally, other safety-related problems, such as safety culture, management inside the corporation, and communication between this facility and the government are discussed.