Using ADMS models for Air Quality Assessment and Management in China

1 INTRODUCTION Many cities and regions are undertaking studies of air quality in cities to determine both the current state of the environment and the effect of future economic and environmental strategies in order to manage local air quality. Often these studies are driven by legislation such as the European Union requirement to model agglomerations or the Chinese requirements to study air quality capacity and to forecast air quality. ADMS-Urban is the most widely used advanced dispers…     

Residents' Willingness to Pay for Improving Air Quality in Jinan,China

Abstract

Along with the progress of urbanization and environmental deterioration, residents' desire for improved air quality is increasing. In order to quantify an individual's willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved air quality in Jinan of eastern China, a contingent valuation method (CVM) was employed. A sample of 1,500 residents was chosen on the basis of multistage sampling methods with face-to-face interviews by using a series of hypothetical, open-ended scenario questions which were designed to elicit the respondents' WTP. Results showed that 59.7% of respondents were able to express their WTP and the mean WTP is 100 Chinese Yuan (CNY) per person per year. A probit model on the probability of a positive WTP and a regression model were developed to find the relationship between endogenous variables and WTP. Most parameters in the econometric analysis had the expected sign. Annual household income and expenditure on treating respiratory diseases significantly influence WTP. The rates of positive WTP and the monetary amount are larger for men than for women. Results also showed that people who lived in more polluted areas were willing to pay more for clean air. Unlike developed countries, clean air may only be considered as a public good in China in that more than 40% of respondents had no incentive to bear the costs of attempting to achieve better air quality, which indicates the relatively low environmental consciousness.     

Optimization Research of Urban Space Configuration Based on Space Syntax

Abstract

In this paper, a new method based on the space syntax is presented to optimize the urban space configuration. Space syntax theory is used to detect systematically whether one urban space configuration is optimal or not from four aspects including traffic space, cognition space, land use space and culture space. After introducing the computational and cognitive aspects of space syntax for the research of urban space, a framework of urban space optimization based on space syntax is proposed, then the integration with GIS and the extension to third dimension are discussed. Finally, a case study for Kanmen town of Zhejiang province of P.R.China is illustrated by using Axwoman tool.     

Multiple Effects of Energy Issues and Countermeasures: A Case of Shandong Province

Abstract

Energy is now becoming the bottleneck of urban and regional development. The paper takes Shandong Province, one of the most energy consuming provinces in China, as an example, uses quantity methods such as SPSS (Stastics Package for Social Science) cluster sampling and regression analysis, and applies quantity analysis, to analyze the situation of energy issues in Shandong province. The conflicts between the quick industrialization and increasing extensive economic development, between urban population and energy consuming per head, between the infinite energy consuming desire and the low level of managing system, and between the unstable world energy supply and the limited energy storage in China are the main factors of energy crisis in Shandong, which not only results in energy shortage, but also becomes the barrier of economic and social development. In order to ensure sufficient energy supply for Shandong province in the 21st century, we should take countermeasures, such as changing the economic development model, pursuing a multiple and high quality energy strategy, improving the intensive urbanization strategy, and building a scientific energy system.     

Modelling future impacts of air pollution using the multi-scale UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM)

Integrated assessment modelling has evolved to support policy development in relation to air pollutants and greenhouse gases by providing integrated simulation tools able to produce quick and realistic representations of emission scenarios and their environmental impacts without the need to re-run complex atmospheric dispersion models. The UK Integrated Assessment Model (UKIAM) has been developed to investigate strategies for reducing UK emissions by bringing together information on projected UK emissions of SO₂, NO_x, NH₃, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5, atmospheric dispersion, criteria for protection of ecosystems, urban air quality and human health, and data on potential abatement measures to reduce emissions, which may subsequently be linked to associated analyses of costs and benefits. We describe the multi-scale model structure ranging from continental to roadside, UK emission sources, atmospheric dispersion of emissions, implementation of abatement measures, integration with European-scale modelling, and environmental impacts. The model generates outputs from a national perspective which are used to evaluate alternative strategies in relation to emissions, deposition patterns, air quality metrics and ecosystem critical load exceedance. We present a selection of scenarios in relation to the 2020 Business-As-Usual projections and identify potential further reductions beyond those currently being planned.     

Traffic-related air pollution and health co-benefits of alternative transport in Adelaide,South Australia

BackgroundMotor vehicle emissions contribute nearly a quarter of the world's energy-related greenhouse gases and cause non-negligible air pollution, primarily in urban areas. Changing people's travel behaviour towards alternative transport is an efficient approach to mitigate harmful environmental impacts caused by a large number of vehicles. Such a strategy also provides an opportunity to gain health co-benefits of improved air quality and enhanced physical activities. This study aimed at quantifying co-benefit effects of alternative transport use in Adelaide, South Australia.MethodWe made projections for a business-as-usual scenario for 2030 with alternative transport scenarios. Separate models including air pollution models and comparative risk assessment health models were developed to link alternative transport scenarios with possible environmental and health benefits.ResultsIn the study region with an estimated population of 1.4 million in 2030, by shifting 40% of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) by passenger vehicles to alternative transport, annual average urban PM_2.5 would decline by approximately 0.4 μg/m³ compared to business-as-usual, resulting in net health benefits of an estimated 13 deaths/year prevented and 118 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) prevented per year due to improved air quality. Further health benefits would be obtained from improved physical fitness through active transport (508 deaths/year prevented, 6569 DALYs/year prevented), and changes in traffic injuries (21 deaths and, 960 DALYs prevented).ConclusionAlthough uncertainties remain, our findings suggest that significant environmental and health benefits are possible if alternative transport replaces even a relatively small portion of car trips. The results may provide assistance to various government organisations and relevant service providers and promote collaboration in policy-making, city planning and infrastructure establishment.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Benefits and Challenges of Urban Green Spaces

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to illustrate the benefits, and challenges towards providing multifunctional urban green spaces. The results are based on critical analysis of study findings from different cities in Europe, America and to a lesser extent in Asia. Inner-city green spaces are especially important for improving air quality through uptake of pollutant gases and particulates which are responsible for respiratory infections. Due to their amenity and aesthetics, green spaces increase property value. To ensure multifunctional role of urban a green space is achieved, in particular the social and psychological role, certain standards of quantity, quality and distribution within the urban area should be adequately established. Green spaces need to be uniformly distributed throughout the city area, although each does not need to be extremely large but should be large enough to accommodate the city population.     

Urban Land-banking Planning: A New Instrument to Regulate Urban Land Supply-demand of Nanjing City

Abstract

It is the major purpose of the paper to present the urban land-banking planning and its functions of promoting the urban land-banking system and land use administration. The urban land-banking system has the potential attribute of acting as an irreplaceable role in urban land administration, but its unexpected function-deviation has impacted its implementation effect in China. A few city governments are attempting to deal with the problem by the urban land-banking planning which is expected to contribute to the extension of urban function, optimization of urban patterns, promotion of urban core competitiveness and overall construction of the urban value chain. In this paper, we primarily discuss the necessity, functions, purposes and main contents of the urban land-banking planning. Subsequently, the implementing situation of the urban land-banking system in Nanjing is analyzed, including its integrated mode, spatio-temporal quantitative distribution and main characteristics. Finally, the background and targets including total, compositions, space, and regulation points are gradually introduced to present the Nanjing land-banking planning version 2.     

Towards Sustainable Urban Environmental Management in Jiangyin city,East China

Abstract

Dramatic economic and social changes have taken place in Jiangyin city due to rapid and uneven urbanization and industrialization. The environmental degradation has followed driven by these changes since the 1980's. With the pressures and effects of environmental deterioration, the city has implemented environmental management to hold back the trends of negative environmental changes. From the viewpoint of systems, DPSER is a good model for urban environmental changes to understand the causes, pressure, state, effect, existing responses and future action strategies. We took Jiangyin city, a developed city in South Jiangsu province, East China, as an example, and analyzed the characteristics of environmental changes and urban responses using DPSER model. Some operational strategies have been put forward to direct the city environmental management towards a sustainable road step by step.     

Mutual Conversion of Land Use between Urban and Rural Area in the Process of Urbanization: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Abstract

Urbanization is one of the driving forces for the land use change in type and structure, and its prominent effect is to convert rural land to urban land. This paper takes Shandong Province as an example to analyze the current situation of the mutual conversion between the urban and rural areas from the aspects of the structure of land use, the decreasing tendency of the cultivated land, the changes of land use in urban and rural residential areas. It points out that cultivated land is converted to residential area land, industrial and/or mining area land. The relationship between the urban area land and the cultivated land is more direct; meanwhile, the changes of rural residential area lag behind obviously. The decrease of the cultivated land and the decline of soil quality will be the two difficult problems in the process of urbanization.     

基于选择实验方法的北京市空气质量价值评估

科学地评估空气质量的经济价值是政府制定空气污染治理政策的必要前提。近年来选择实验方法逐渐兴起,并被研究者广泛应用于环境价值评估。与其他陈述偏好方法相比,选择实验的一个优势是其具有更高的外部效度。选择实验方法在国内的应用研究尚处在起步阶段。本研究分别在2015年和2016年对北京市居民开展了两次基于选择实验方法的网络调查,在调查数据的基础上采用随机参数Logit和广义多元Logit模型分析了北京市居民对空气质量的偏好,并据此估算了空气质量价值。根据2015年样本的估算结果,雾霾天气(PM_(2.5)超标)和沙尘天气(PM_(10)超标)对北京市居民的平均边际价值分别为6.32元/d和2.69元/d;根据2016年样本的估算结果,两个价值分别为7.72元/d和2.81元/d。上述估算结果在两次调查样本中基本稳定,而且,在多种模型设定下都具有较强的稳健性,与近年来的同类研究结果基本一致。以2016年样本的估算结果为基础,2015年北京市雾霾天气和沙尘天气引起的价值损失分别为239.61亿元和45.13亿元,占北京市当年GDP总量的1.04%和0.20%。进一步研究发现,北京市2015年和2016年空气质量改善的价值均低于北京市政府同年用于治理空气污染投入的财政资金总量,说明资金使用效率有待进一步提高;此外,虽然空气质量对高收入居民具有更高的价值,但是,以收入水平为指标设计的累进税率并不比固定税率更优。     

Characterizing the PM2.5-related health benefits of emission reductions for 17 industrial,area and mobile emission sectors across the U.S.

BackgroundAir pollution benefits assessments tend to be time and resource intensive. Reduced-form approaches offer computational efficiency, but may introduce uncertainty. Some reduced-form approaches apply simplified air quality models, which may not capture the complex non-linear chemistry governing the formation of certain pollutants such as PM_2.5. Other approaches apply the results of sophisticated photochemical modeling, but characterize only a small number of source types in a limited geographic area.MethodsWe apply CAMx source apportionment photochemical modeling, coupled with a PC-based human health benefits software program, to develop a suite of PM_2.5 benefit per ton estimates. These per-ton estimates relate emission changes to health impacts and monetized benefits for 17 sectors across the continental U.S., including Electricity Generating Units (EGU), mobile, area and industrial point sources.ResultsThe benefit per ton of reducing directly emitted PM_2.5 is about an order of magnitude larger than reducing emissions of PM_2.5 precursor emissions. On a per-ton basis, the value of reducing directly emitted PM_2.5 and PM_2.5 precursors in 2005 ranges between approximately $1300 (2010$) for reducing a ton of NO_x from Ocean-Going Vessels to about $450,000 (2010$) for reducing a ton of directly emitted PM_2.5 from Iron and Steel facilities. The benefit per ton estimates for 2016 are generally higher than the 2005 estimates. The values estimated here are generally comparable with those generated using photochemical modeling, but larger than those calculated using simplified air quality models.ConclusionsOur approach characterizes well the per-ton benefits of reducing emissions from a broad array of 17 industrial point, EGU and mobile sectors, while our use of photochemical air quality modeling gives us greater confidence that we have accounted for the non-linear chemistry governing PM_2.5 formation. The resulting benefit per-ton estimates thus represent a compromise between approaches that may simplify the treatment of PM_2.5 air quality formation and those techniques that are based in photochemical modeling but account for only a small number of emission sources.     

Residential exposure to traffic noise and risk of incident atrial fibrillation: A cohort study

BackgroundStudies have found long-term exposure to traffic noise to be associated with higher risk for hypertension, ischemic heart disease and stroke. We aimed to investigate the novel hypothesis that traffic noise increases the risk of atrial fibrillation (A-fib).MethodsIn a population-based cohort of 57,053 people aged 50–64 years at enrolment in 1993–1997, we identified 2692 cases of first-ever hospital admission of A-fib from enrolment to end of follow-up in 2011 using a nationwide registry. The mean follow-up time was 14.7 years. Present and historical residential addresses were identified for all cohort members from 1987 to 2011. For all addresses, exposure to road traffic and railway noise was estimated using the Nordic prediction method and exposure to air pollution was estimated using a validated dispersion model. We used Cox proportional hazard model for the analyses with adjustment for lifestyle, socioeconomic position and air pollution.ResultsA 10 dB higher 5-year time-weighted mean exposure to road traffic noise was associated with a 6% higher risk of A-fib (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.06; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.00–1.12) in models adjusted for factors related to lifestyle and socioeconomic position. The association followed a monotonic exposure–response relationship. In analyses with adjustment for air pollution, NO_x or NO₂, there were no statistically significant associations between exposure to road traffic noise and risk of A-fib; IRR: 1.04; (95% CI: 0.96–1.11) and IRR: 1.01; (95% CI: 0.94–1.09), respectively. Exposure to railway noise was not associated with A-fib.ConclusionExposure to residential road traffic noise may be associated with higher risk of A-fib, though associations were difficult to separate from exposure to air pollution.     

Health effects of ambient air pollution: Do different methods for estimating exposure lead to different results?

BackgroundSpatially resolved exposure models are increasingly used in epidemiology. We previously reported that, although exhibiting a moderate correlation, pregnancy nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) levels estimated by the nearest air quality monitoring station (AQMS) model and a geostatistical model, showed similar associations with infant birth weight.ObjectivesWe extended this study by comparing a total of four exposure models, including two highly spatially resolved models: a land-use regression (LUR) model and a dispersion model. Comparisons were made in terms of predicted NO₂ and particle (aerodynamic diameter < 10 μm, PM₁₀) exposure and adjusted association with birth weight.MethodsThe four exposure models were implemented in two French metropolitan areas where 1026 pregnant women were followed as part of the EDEN mother–child cohort.ResultsCorrelations between model predictions were high (≥ 0.70), except for NO₂ between the AQMS and both the LUR (r = 0.54) and dispersion models (r = 0.63). Spatial variations as estimated by the AQMS model were greater for NO₂ (95%) than for PM₁₀ (22%). The direction of effect estimates of NO₂ on birth weight varied according to the exposure model, while PM₁₀ effect estimates were more consistent across exposure models.ConclusionsFor PM₁₀, highly spatially resolved exposure model agreed with the poor spatial resolution AQMS model in terms of estimated pollutant levels and health effects. For more spatially heterogeneous pollutants like NO₂, although predicted levels from spatially resolved models (all but AQMS) agreed with each other, our results suggest that some may disagree with each other as well as with the AQMS regarding the direction of the estimated health effects.     

Evaluation of air quality indicators in Alberta,Canada – An international perspective

There has been an increase in oil sands development in northern Alberta, Canada and an overall increase in economic activity in the province in recent years. An evaluation of the state of air quality was conducted in four Alberta locations – urban centers of Calgary and Edmonton, and smaller communities of Fort McKay and Fort McMurray in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR). Concentration trends, diurnal hourly and monthly average concentration profiles, and exceedances of provincial, national and international air quality guidelines were assessed for several criteria air pollutants over the period 1998 to 2014. Two methods were used to evaluate trends. Parametric analysis of annual median 1 h concentrations and non-parametric analysis of annual geometric mean 1 h concentrations showed consistent decreasing trends for NO₂ and SO₂ (< 1 ppb per year), CO (< 0.1 ppm per year) at all stations, decreasing for THC (< 0.1 ppm per year) and increasing for O₃ (≤ 0.52 ppb per year) at most stations and unchanged for PM_2.5 at all stations in Edmonton and Calgary over a 17-year period. Little consistency in trends was observed among the methods for the same air pollutants other than for THC (increasing in Fort McKay < 0.1 ppm per year and no trend in Fort McMurray), PM_2.5 in Fort McKay and Fort McMurray (no trend) and CO (decreasing < 0.1 ppm per year in Fort McMurray) over the same period. Levels of air quality indicators at the four locations were compared with other Canadian and international urban areas to judge the current state of air quality. Median and annual average concentrations for Alberta locations tended to be the smallest in Fort McKay and Fort McMurray. Other than for PM_2.5, Calgary and Edmonton tended to have median and annual average concentrations comparable to and/or below that of larger populated Canadian and U.S. cities, depending upon the air pollutant.     

Racial isolation and exposure to airborne particulate matter and ozone in understudied US populations: Environmental justice applications of downscaled numerical model output

BackgroundResearchers and policymakers are increasingly focused on combined exposures to social and environmental stressors, especially given how often these stressors tend to co-locate. Such exposures are equally relevant in urban and rural areas and may accrue disproportionately to particular communities or specific subpopulations.ObjectivesTo estimate relationships between racial isolation (RI), a measure of the extent to which minority racial/ethnic group members are exposed to only one another, and long-term particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of < 2.5 μ (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) levels in urban and nonurban areas of the eastern two-thirds of the US.MethodsLong-term (5 year average) census tract-level PM_2.5 and O₃ concentrations were calculated using output from a downscaler model (2002–2006). The downscaler uses a linear regression with additive and multiplicative bias coefficients to relate ambient monitoring data with gridded output from the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. A local, spatial measure of RI was calculated at the tract level, and tracts were classified by urbanicity, RI, and geographic region. We examined differences in estimated pollutant exposures by RI, urbanicity, and demographic subgroup (e.g., race/ethnicity, education, socioeconomic status, age), and used linear models to estimate associations between RI and air pollution levels in urban, suburban, and rural tracts.ResultsHigh RI tracts (≥ 80th percentile) had higher average PM_2.5 levels in each category of urbanicity compared to low RI tracts (< 20th percentile), with the exception of the rural West. Patterns in O₃ levels by urbanicity and RI differed by region. Linear models indicated that PM_2.5 concentrations were significantly and positively associated with RI. The largest association between PM_2.5 and RI was observed in the rural Midwest, where a one quintile increase in RI was associated with a 0.90 μg/m³ (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.99 μg/m³) increase in PM_2.5 concentration. Associations between O₃ and RI in the Northeast, Midwest and West were positive and highest in suburban and rural tracts, even after controlling for potential confounders such as percentage in poverty.ConclusionRI is associated with higher 5 year estimated PM_2.5 concentrations in urban, suburban, and rural census tracts, adding to evidence that segregation is broadly associated with disparate air pollution exposures. Disproportionate burdens to adverse exposures such as air pollution may be a pathway to racial/ethnic disparities in health.     

Ecological Approaches to Urban Migration of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

Abstract

With the approach of the second water storage of the Three Gorges Project, urban migration has become a great concern. However, being influenced by economical, social or other factors, ecological problems have apparently become pressing. All these problems are exerting great impact upon the speed and quality of new city's or town's construction. By means of ecology, urban ecology, landscape ecology, human settlement science as well as the principle of sustainable development, this paper analyzes the ecological problems in urban migration, and the corresponding approaches in order to promote ecological environment construction of new cities and give an impetus to sustainable development of the whole human settlements in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.     

Environment and Personal Well-being in Urban China

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between environment and personal well-being using a sample of 562 urban employees from three cities in Liaoning province in the People’s Republic of China. In contrast to previous studies, this study controlled positive affectivity (PA), negative affectivity (NA), job satisfaction and Big Five personality traits. In addition, the research variables of personal well-being index (PWI), positive affectivity, negative affectivity, job satisfaction, Big Five, and environmental satisfaction are measured with multi-item scales. The research finds that environmental satisfaction is positively related to personal well-being, suggesting that improvement of the natural surroundings in the cities can improve people’s well-being.