From global sustainability research matrix to typology: a tool to analyze coastal and marine social-ecological systems

An attempt is made to develop a coastal and marine social-ecological typology. An explicitly regional focus is taken to explore how a regionally grounded, multi-scale analysis may support multi-level local to global sustainability efforts. A case study from Indonesia exemplifies this approach. Social-ecological sustainability problems, caused by drivers at different earth system levels, lead the way into the proposed typology. A social-ecological system consists of a biogeophysical territory, an identified issue and the associated social agents. It can extend across disciplines as well as across spatial and institutional levels and scales. A global sustainability research matrix, which is based on ecozones and problem types, can thus be constructed and serves as a research-driven multi-level typology. The regional application links directly to stakeholder agendas at the problem level. It is argued that some of the central functions of coastal and marine social-ecological systems are resource provision, livelihood access, and storm and erosion protection, which need special attention in a coastal and marine social-ecological typology, as exemplified in the Indonesian case study used. This contribution is an exploratory research to propose steps toward such a typology. It is extended to the social-ecological subsystems—natural, social, governance—and applied to additional cases. A two-dimensional, hierarchical typology is proposed as a tool to analyze, compare and classify coastal and marine systems. A policy typology is added to assess changes. A governance baseline is assumed to foster normative sustainability goals. A subsystems appraisal typology is meant to evaluate action results. Finally, unresolved methodological questions are discussed.     

Linking human security to natural resources: perspective from a fishery resource allocation system in Chilika lagoon, India

Human security is linked to people’s access to natural resources and vulnerabilities to environmental change. In the case study of Chilika lagoon, the findings reveal that insecurity linked to natural resources is largely embedded in the historical process of resource allocation among stakeholders, rather than on the presence of resource stocks. The insecurities are strongly tied not only to allocation changes, but also to multiple factors (environmental, technological, and demographic factors). Based on the Chilika lagoon experience, this article develops a pathway toward a clear understanding of the linkage between human security and natural resources in a local context.     

On shrimp,salt and security: livelihood risks and responses in South Bangladesh and East India

Bangladesh and India are among the world’s most populous but also most vulnerable countries to environmental risks. In addition to storms, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, local communities face a multitude of pre-existing and concomitant economic and socio-political risks. To understand these risks and how communities respond to them is critical in securing community livelihoods. We therefore ask what are the livelihood risks; how do they impact the human security of environment sensitive communities in Satkhira, Bangladesh and in Odisha, India; and, what are the responses of these communities to the livelihood risks? The communities studied in Bangladesh depend mainly on the shrimp and fish resources of the Sundarbans mangrove forest. The two communities researched at Lake Chilika in India depend on fishing and salt farming, respectively. The field research, conducted in 2012 and 2013, shows that the communities face multiple and interacting livelihood risks. While storms and floods are common environmental risks in both countries, related livelihood risks are case-specific. In Bangladesh, attacks by criminals are the major threat to human well-being, while in India, it is violent conflict between lake users. Unsustainable resource extraction is found in both study countries. In Bangladesh, shrimp farming weakens the flood protection, while in India, illegal prawn farming marginalizes poorer lake users. Accessing loans and labor migration are responses observed in both countries. We conclude that adaptation to environmental changes needs to be sensitive to the interaction between governance, local institutions and socio-economic developments.     

Changes in the spatial patterns of human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in Europe 1990–2006

Understanding patterns, dynamics, and drivers of land use is crucial for improving our ability to cope with sustainability challenges. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework provides a set of integrated socio-ecological indicators that quantify how land use alters energy flows in ecosystems via land conversions and biomass harvest. Thus, HANPP enables researchers to systematically and consistently assess the outcome of changes in land cover and land-use intensity across spatio-temporal scales. Yet, fine-scale HANPP assessments are so far missing, an information important to address site-specific ecological implications of land use. Here, we provide such an assessment for Europe at a 1-km scale for the years 1990, 2000, and 2006. The assessment was based on a consistent land-use/biomass flow dataset derived from statistical data, remote sensing maps, and a dynamic global vegetation model. We find that HANPP in Europe amounted to ~43 % of potential productivity, well above the global average of ~25 %, with little variation in the European average since 1990. HANPP was highest in Central Europe and lower in Northern and Southern Europe. At the regional level, distinct changes in land-use intensity were observed, most importantly the decline of cropland areas and yields following the breakdown of socialism in Eastern Europe and the subsequent recovery after 2000, or strong dynamics related to storm events that resulted in massive salvage loggings. In sum, however, these local dynamics cancelled each other out at the aggregate level. We conclude that this finding warrants further research into aspects of the scale-dependency of dynamics and stability of land use.     

国内外可持续发展评价方法对比分析

国际、国内很多组织都对可持续性评价方法进行过研究分析,但大多是特定的案例研究.目前国内外对可持续发展评价方法没有一个全面系统的分析比较,使得不同地区比较起来很困难.本文对各种评价方法如环境可持续性指数法、生态足迹法、能值分析法和指标综合评价法的来源、理论和应用作了介绍.得出各方法适用范围:可持续性指数法适合于国家间的综合评价;生态足迹和能值分析法适合于各种范围,包括国家、区域、地区和小系统;指标体系综合评价法对于小范围更合适.同时对各种方法的优势和缺陷进行了分析讨论,得出:可持续性指数法信息量大,但是计算复杂;生态足迹法计算过程简单,但是缺失一些可持续性信息;能值分析法考虑问题全面,但是其原理涉及热力学知识,很难被一些学者认同;指标体系评价法变通性较大,可随着评价系统的变化而进行调整,但是主观性较强.通过分析指出不同方法适用范围并指出每种分析方法的优势和不足,为以后选择合适的分析方法评价对象的可持续性提供依据.     

Distant agricultural landscapes

This paper examines the relationship between the development of the dominant industrial food system and its associated global economic drivers and the environmental sustainability of agricultural landscapes. It makes the case that the growth of the global industrial food system has encouraged increasingly complex forms of “distance” that separate food both geographically and mentally from the landscapes on which it was produced. This separation between food and its originating landscape poses challenges for the ability of more localized agricultural sustainability initiatives to address some of the broader problems in the global food system. In particular, distance enables certain powerful actors to externalize ecological and social costs, which in turn makes it difficult to link specific global actors to particular biophysical and social impacts felt on local agricultural landscapes. Feedback mechanisms that normally would provide pressure for improved agricultural sustainability are weak because there is a lack of clarity regarding responsibility for outcomes. The paper provides a brief illustration of these dynamics with a closer look at increased financialization in the food system. It shows that new forms of distancing are encouraged by the growing significance of financial markets in global agrifood value chains. This dynamic has a substantial impact on food system outcomes and ultimately complicates efforts to scale up small-scale local agricultural models that are more sustainable.     

Framing natural assets for advancing sustainability research: translating different perspectives into actions

Sustainability is a key challenge for humanity in the context of complex and unprecedented global changes. Future Earth, an international research initiative aiming to advance global sustainability science, has recently launched knowledge–action networks (KANs) as mechanisms for delivering its research strategy. The research initiative is currently developing a KAN on “natural assets” to facilitate and enable action-oriented research and synthesis towards natural assets sustainability. ‘Natural assets’ has been adopted by Future Earth as an umbrella term aiming to translate and bridge across different knowledge systems and different perspectives on peoples’ relationships with nature. In this paper, we clarify the framing of Future Earth around natural assets emphasizing the recognition on pluralism and identifying the challenges of translating different visions about the role of natural assets, including via policy formulation, for local to global sustainability challenges. This understanding will be useful to develop inter-and transdisciplinary solutions for human–environmental problems by (i) embracing richer collaborative decision processes and building bridges across different perspectives; (ii) giving emphasis on the interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic drivers affecting the future trends of investments and disinvestments in natural assets; and (iii) focusing on social equity, power relationships for effective application of the natural assets approach. This understanding also intends to inform the scope of the natural asset KAN’s research agenda to mobilize the translation of research into co-designed action for sustainability.     

Exploring the planetary boundary for chemical pollution

Rockström et al. (2009a, 2009b) have warned that humanity must reduce anthropogenic impacts defined by nine planetary boundaries if “unacceptable global change” is to be avoided. Chemical pollution was identified as one of those boundaries for which continued impacts could erode the resilience of ecosystems and humanity. The central concept of the planetary boundary (or boundaries) for chemical pollution (PBCP or PBCPs) is that the Earth has a finite assimilative capacity for chemical pollution, which includes persistent, as well as readily degradable chemicals released at local to regional scales, which in aggregate threaten ecosystem and human viability. The PBCP allows humanity to explicitly address the increasingly global aspects of chemical pollution throughout a chemical's life cycle and the need for a global response of internationally coordinated control measures. We submit that sufficient evidence shows stresses on ecosystem and human health at local to global scales, suggesting that conditions are transgressing the safe operating space delimited by a PBCP. As such, current local to global pollution control measures are insufficient. However, while the PBCP is an important conceptual step forward, at this point single or multiple PBCPs are challenging to operationalize due to the extremely large number of commercial chemicals or mixtures of chemicals that cause myriad adverse effects to innumerable species and ecosystems, and the complex linkages between emissions, environmental concentrations, exposures and adverse effects. As well, the normative nature of a PBCP presents challenges of negotiating pollution limits amongst societal groups with differing viewpoints. Thus, a combination of approaches is recommended as follows: develop indicators of chemical pollution, for both control and response variables, that will aid in quantifying a PBCP(s) and gauging progress towards reducing chemical pollution; develop new technologies and technical and social approaches to mitigate global chemical pollution that emphasize a preventative approach; coordinate pollution control and sustainability efforts; and facilitate implementation of multiple (and potentially decentralized) control efforts involving scientists, civil society, government, non-governmental organizations and international bodies.     

Towards a framework for cross-scale and multi-level analysis of coastal and marine social-ecological systems dynamics

As the Anthropocene proceeds, regional and local sustainability problems are ever more likely to originate at multiple levels of the earth system. The rate of global environmental change is now vastly outpacing our policy response, and social-ecological systems analysis needs to support global environmental governance. To respond to this challenge, this paper initiates the development of a coastal social-ecological typology and applies it in an exemplary fashion to nine coastal and marine case studies. We use an explicit distinction between the definitions of scale and level and a problem or issue-specific approach to the delineation of social-ecological units. A current major challenge to social-ecological systems analysis is the identification of the cross-level and cross-scale interactions and links which play key roles in shaping coastal and marine social-ecological dynamics and outcomes. We show that the regional level is the best point of departure to generate sustainability-oriented cross-scale and multi-level analyses and offers the outline of a typology in which different disciplinary and other forms of knowledge can be integrated as both part of regionally grounded analysis and action which engages with global sustainability challenges.     

Regional Research Capacity -Building inSustainability Science:Facts, Gaps, and Futures in Northeast Asia

Evidence shows that some conceptual ideas relevant to both local and global sustainability have been adopted in some official documents in northeast Asian nations, particularly China, South Korea, and Japan. This seems to be a very positive signal for the future development of sustainability science in this region. However,studyes show that there are still some major gaps there. One is the problem of how to build up the regional research capacity of sustainability science among northeast Asian research institutes across different disciplines as well as different political systems. Another is how to shift the conceptual frameworks of sustainability science into the operational policy frameworks. There are four major obstacles to the enhancement of regional research capacity-building in sustainability science. In order to build up the regional research capacity in sustainability science and to realize both local and global goals of the sustainable development in northeast Asia, this paper proposes some ba     

Regional Research Capacity-Building in Sustainability Science: Facts,Gaps, and Futures in Northeast Asia

Abstract

Evidence shows that some conceptual ideas relevant to both local and global sustainability have been adopted in some official documents in northeast Asian nations, particularly China, South Korea, and Japan. This seems to be a very positive signal for the future development of sustainability science in this region. However, studyes show that there are still some major gaps there. One is the problem of how to build up the regional research capacity of sustainability science among northeast Asian research institutes across different disciplines as well as different political systems. Another is how to shift the conceptual frameworks of sustainability science into the operational policy frameworks. There are four major obstacles to the enhancement of regional research capacity-building in sustainability science. In order to build up the regional research capacity in sustainability science and to realize both local and global goals of the sustainable development in northeast Asia, this paper proposes some basic frameworks, including regional institutional innovations, establishment of a regional sustainability information network, initiatives of the regional assessment programme, and focus on the regional education and training of sustainability knowledge.     

Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

Local, regional, and global processes affect deforestation and land-use changes in the Brazilian Amazon. Characteristics are: direct conversions from forest to pasture; regional processes of indirect land-use change, described by the conversion of pastures to cropland, which increases the demand for pastures elsewhere; and teleconnections, fueled by the global demands for soybeans as animal fodder. We modeled land-use changes for two scenarios Trend and Sustainable Development for a hot spot of land-use change along the BR-163 highway in Mato Grosso and Pará, Brazil. We investigated the differences between a coupled modeling approach, which incorporates indirect land-use change processes, and a noncoupled land-use model. We coupled the regional-scale LandSHIFT model, defined for Mato Grosso and Pará, with a subregional model, alucR, covering a selected corridor along the BR-163. The results indicated distinct land-use scenario outcomes from the coupled modeling approach and the subregional model quantification. We found the highest deforestation estimates returned from the subregional quantification of the Trend scenario. This originated from the strong local dynamics of past deforestation and land-use changes. Land-use changes exceeded the demands estimated at regional scale. We observed the lowest deforestation estimates at the subregional quantification of the Sustainable Development story line. We highlight that model coupling increased the representation of scenario outcomes at fine resolution while providing consistency across scales. However, distinct local dynamics were explicitly captured at subregional scale. The scenario result pinpoints the importance of policies to aim at the cattle ranching sector, to increase land tenure registration and enforcement of environmental laws.

     

The Spatial Dimension of Landscape Sustainability

Sustainability indicators are mostly derived from parameters which are, in the spatial dimension, more or less distribution-free. In the majority of cases, the indicators are based on statistical data on production, consumption, pollutants emission, land use, etc. This statistical approach is liable to mask sustainability risks which are primarily caused by specific spatial and temporal patterns of landscape and land use structure, such as degradation of soil functions, disturbances in the landscape's water balance, and losses in functional habitat quality.Sustainability risks due to ecologically non-adapted spatial landuse patterns require measures on regional to local scales, based on disaggregated, spatially explicit indicators. Depending on the respective planning and decision level, different levels of spatial aggregation/disaggregation have to be considered.In the concept presented here, a differentiated approach is proposed. For an aggregated assessment of landscape sustainability, long term monitoring of the dynamics of water flow and matter load at the outlet point of river catchments is recommended. A prerequisite for analyzing those measurements in terms of the catchments' land cover and land use pattern, as well as changes thereof, is a Geographic Information System (GIS) holding relevant up-to-date geodata sets. For a spatially more detailed indication of sustainability risks, an approach of GIS-based functional landscape assessment was demonstrated in a regional case study.The results show GIS on regional to local scales together with satellite remote sensing data on land cover and landuse to be a powerful data basis for spatially explicit landscape evaluation, provided that suitable models for assessing specific landscape functions are applied.     

Towards institutional analysis of sustainability science: a quantitative examination of the patterns of research collaboration

This paper examines quantitatively the patterns of collaboration over geographical boundaries in the emerging field of sustainability science by empirically analyzing the bibliometric data of scientific articles. The results indicate that an increasing number of countries are engaged in research on sustainability, with the proportion of articles published through international collaboration rising as well. The number of countries engaged in international collaboration on sustainability research has been increasing, and the diversity of countries engaged in research collaboration beyond national borders is also increasing. The geographical patterns of collaboration on sustainability show that research collaboration tends to be conducted between countries which are geographically located closely, suggesting that communication and information exchange might be limited within the regional clusters. The focused fields of research activities on sustainability are significantly different between countries, as each country has its focused fields of research related to sustainability. The specialization of research activities is also observed in international collaboration. While these patterns of international collaboration within regional clusters focusing on specific fields could be effective in promoting the creation, transmission, and sharing of knowledge on sustainability utilizing the already existing regional networks, they could pose a serious obstacle to collecting, exchanging, and integrating diverse types of knowledge, especially when it is necessary to deal with problems involving large-scale complex interactions with long-term implications, such as climate change. It would be of critical importance to establish inter-regional linkages by devising appropriate institutional arrangements for global research collaboration on sustainability science.     

The scientific challenge of bridging the gap from the local to the earth system level: lessons from the study of mangroves and people in North Brazil

This article aims to address the challenges of sustainable earth system governance from a multi-scale level perspective. The local to regional system level reviews findings from a social–ecological system approach of a mangrove ecosystem in North Brazil. Seven challenges (Glaser et al. in Mangrove dynamics and management in North Brazil. Ecological studies series. Springer, Berlin, pp 307–388, 2010) that could provide relevant knowledge to society were identified. Their respective justification and recommendations are presented here. Further, these “challenges from the field” are linked and discussed with those challenges on earth system level elaborated by the International Council for Science in 2010. There it was stressed that sustainability problems are increasingly caused by drivers from multiple spatial and institutional levels in a single global human–nature system. The comparison between the global and local to regional challenges shows that most of these are reappearing disregarding the level of analysis, indicating that there is a universal core of global change problems. However, there are gaps visible which hamper the effective connections across the different spatial levels. These pertain to the subjects of knowledge generation and stakeholder inclusion. The final section elaborates on these recognized gaps and their science–policy dimensions. The article closes with the identification of a number of factors which currently impede global sustainability efforts: shortcomings in inter- and transdisciplinary research practice, lack of consistent structures for earth system governance and shortcomings in dealing with upscaling challenges whilst remaining locally relevant. A blueprint for a globally focused but regionally informed social–ecological analysis framework remains to be worked out.     

Scenario analysis for regional decision-making on sustainable multifunctional land uses

Land-use patterns are influenced by both top-down and bottom-up (local) factors, with their interactions varying in both space and time. This provides a major challenge to decision-making for sustainable multifunctional landscapes. A cross-scale scenario structure has been developed to integrate top-down and bottom-up context based upon the familiar IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios framework. Qualitative scenario storylines are converted into multiple quantified simulations of regional land-use change using a series of rules, with information translated across scales using a hierarchical land-use classification. Land-use parcels (fields) are used as key landscape reference units representing the local dimension of regional changes. Biophysical limitations on land use are represented through land capability classes (climate, soils and topography). Socio-economic factors are characterised in reference to global drivers, policy targets or local preferences. A flexible stochastic software tool (LandSFACTS) ensures spatiotemporal coherence of land-use allocation simulations consistent with scenario storylines. Scenario development is designed to be interactive, bridging ‘problem-focussed’ and ‘actor-focussed’ approaches. A case study is presented from NE Scotland, where plans to enhance multifunctionality through new woodland are evaluated against drivers of globalisation and climate change. Competing priorities, such as food security, mean that in some scenarios, a policy objective for woodland expansion to occur on farmland cannot be met. Woodland expansion would then have to occur on uncultivated upland areas. Scenario analysis has highlighted specific sensitivity to change in ‘marginal’ agricultural areas, with the varying influence of different top-down or bottom-up factors leading to divergent potential outcomes.     

International Legal Instruments and Regional Environmental Protection

Efficient environmental protection requires global, as well as regional ecological strategies. During the last decade numerous attempts at regional and global environmental protection have been made. But industrial environmental protection is still, above all, a national matter. National emission limit values and international technological standards still neglect to a large extent the regional aspects of pollution prevention. Recent normative texts (international standards, European directives) can be seen as the first step to filling this gap. They represent different evolutionary stages on the way from merely technocentric to regionally integrated environmental protection. We investigate the potential of some of these normative texts to operationalise regional environmental strategies. For this purpose we will provide a framework for evaluation centred on the following questions: ? Is the installation/project/organisation perceived as part of its specific environment? ? Can local immission standards be developed on the basis of a functional classification of ecosystems? ? Are methods of integrated ecological evaluation supported? The framework will be applied to examine the European directives on Environmental Impact Assessment and Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control and two ISO (International Standardisation Organisation) standards on Environmental Management Systems (ISO 14001 and 14004) with regard to basic requirements for operationalising integrated regional environmental protection.     

A global empirical typology of anthropogenic drivers of environmental change in deltas

It is broadly recognized that river delta systems around the world are under threat from a range of anthropogenic activities. These activities occur at the local delta scale, at the regional river and watershed scale, and at the global scale. Tools are needed to support generalization of results from case studies in specific deltas. Here, we present a methodology for quantitatively constructing an empirical typology of anthropogenic change in global deltas. Utilizing a database of environmental change indicators, each associated with increased relative sea-level rise and coastal wetland loss, a clustering analysis of 48 global deltas provides a quantitative assessment of systems experiencing similar or dissimilar sources and degrees of anthropogenic stress. By identifying quantitatively similar systems, we hope to improve the transferability of scientific results across systems, and increase the effectiveness of delta management best practices. Both K-Means and Affinity Propagation clustering algorithms find similar clusters, with relative stability across small changes in K-Means cluster number. High-latitude deltas appear similar, in terms of anthropogenic environmental stress, to several low-population, low-latitude systems, including the Amazon delta, despite substantially different climatic regimes. Highly urbanized deltas in Southeast Asia form a distinct cluster. By providing a quantitative boundary between groups of delta systems, this approach may also be useful for assessing future delta change and sustainability given projected population growth, urbanization, and economic development trends.     

Downscaling nonclimatic drivers for surface water vulnerabilities in the Elbe river basin

Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socio-economic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially.     

Supporting climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessments in the Asia-Pacific region: an example of sustainability science

Sustainability is achieved only when there is full reconciliation between: (1) economic development; (2) meeting, on an equitable basis, growing and changing human needs and aspirations; and (3) conserving the limited natural resources and the capacity of the environment to absorb the mulitple stresses that are a consequence of human activities. The linkages between climate and sustainability are examined in the context of both the wider Asia-Pacific region and local level climate risks and adaptation responses. These findings are used to underpin and illustrate several implications for sustainability science. Climate change is seen as both an impediment to increasing sustainability and as an opportunity, though in most cases the former far outweighs the latter. Assessments of climate change vulnerability and risk are shown to be of critical importance because they inform decisions as to where resources for adaptation are best invested. They also show whether global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need to be strengthened because of limits to adaptation. In practice, adaptation takes place at many levels, essentially ranging between tangible interventions at community and enterprise level and national and international efforts to strengthen the enabling environment for adaptation. It is informative to undertake regional assessments of adaptation, even though most adaptation interventions need to reflect local conditions, including local adaptive capacities. The foregoing findings, based in part on a series of regional and local case studies, lead to several recommendations for further research that will help reduce barriers to implementing responses that reduce climate related risks, including adverse consequences for sustainability. The recommendations relate to such themes as making optimum use of predictive capabilities, characterising the linkages between climate change and sustainability, implications of the required rates and magnitudes of adaptation, institutional responses that enhance adaptive capacity, use of new and traditional technologies, the multiple dimensions of social responsibility, and enhancing the enabling environment for adaptation at the community and enterprise level. If these recommendations are acted upon they will, in turn, help address much needed improvements in quantifying the costs and benefits of adaptation, prioritising adaptation options, assessing sustainable development tradeoffs, and monitoring the success of adaptation initiatives. Such improvements will have even greater utility if they are incorporated into user-friendly decision support tools for adaptation.