Economic assessment of the health effects related to particulate matter pollution in 111 Chinese cities by using economic burden of disease analysis

With China's rapid economic development, environmental problems have become more and more serious. Particulate air pollution is terrible in cities with large and dense population. It may lead to adverse health effects and economic costs. In this study, we calculated the health effects of pollution caused by particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters less than 10mum (PM(10)) in 111 Chinese cities in 2004 according to statistical data and epidemiological exposure-response functions. Using economic burden of disease analysis, an economic assessment of these health risks was also presented. In contrast to many previous studies that have examined individual cities, this study covered most large and medium-sized cities in China, which accounted for more than 70% gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2004. The total economic cost caused by PM(10) pollution was estimated as approximately US$ 29,178.7 million. Mega cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin contribute relatively more to the total costs. The results will help policy makers in formulating more effective countermeasures and increasing public awareness to enhance environmental protection.     

Potential for Advanced Technology to Improve Air Quality and Human Health in Shanghai

/ Air quality in most Asian cities is poor and getting worse. It will soon become impossible to sustain population, economic, and industrial growth without severe deterioration of the atmospheric environment. This paper addresses the city of Shanghai, the air-quality problems it faces over the next 30 years, and the potential of advanced technology to alleviate these problems. Population, energy consumption, and emission profiles are developed for the city at 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees resolution and extrapolated from 1990 to 2020 using sector-specific economic growth factors. Within the context of the RAINS-Asia model, eight technology scenarios are examined for their effects on ambient concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate and their emission control costs. Without new control measures, it is projected that the number of people exposed to sulfur dioxide concentrations in excess of guidelines established by the World Health Organization will rise from 650,000 in 1990 to more than 14 million in 2020. It is apparent that efforts to reduce emissions are likely to have significant health benefits, measured in terms of the cost of reducing the number of people exposed to concentrations in excess of the guidelines ($10-50 annually per person protected). Focusing efforts on the control of new coal-fired power plants and industrial facilities has the greatest benefit. However, none of the scenarios examined is alone capable of arresting the increases in emissions, concentrations, and population exposure. It is concluded that combinations of stringent scenarios in several sectors will be necessary to stabilize the situation, at a potential cost of $500 million annually by the year 2020. KEY WORDS: Coal; China; Shanghai; Sulfur dioxide; Air quality; Health effects     

China: Energy and environment

Some of China's most prominent environmental problems are related to energy The air pollution of the cities and industrial centers is caused by the inefficient combustion of coal. Deforestation is due to a certain extent to the procurement of firewood. Further problems are caused by the ash and slag from coal combustion and the oil pollution of the sea. While most of China's air is still clean, pollution levels in the cities surpass by far those of German industrial towns, and the health effects are becoming apparent The problem of deforestation must be considered still more serious because it affects whole regions. Short-term effective solutions to the problems presented are not available     

论长江经济带大气污染防治的若干问题与防治对策

长江经济带是世界上最大的内河产业带和制造业基地,建设长江经济带是新时期中国三大国家发展战略之一,积极、有效地保护长江经济带生态环境具有非常重要的战略意义。本研究从识别突出的大气污染防治问题入手,深入分析大气污染的主要驱动力产业与能源结构,以问题为靶向,提出长江经济带的大气污染防治策略。研究结果发现,占国土面积21%的长江经济带排放了全国34%的二氧化硫、32%的氮氧化物、28%的烟粉尘、44%的挥发性有机物、43%的氨,单位面积污染物排放强度是全国平均水平的1.3~2.1倍,污染物排放远超环境容量。长江经济带126个城市中,6项主要大气污染物年平均浓度全部达标的城市比例不到1/3。颗粒物是影响城市达标的主要污染物。长江经济带产业结构偏重和能源消费以煤为主,是造成大气污染排放量的主要源头,是大气污染的主要驱动力。以解决突出的大气环境问题为核心,将环境质量作为大气污染防治的底线,持续推进空气质量改善,重点措施上,从大气污染驱动力着手,提出优化产业与能源结构、深化多污染物协同控制、推进区域联防联控等大气污染防治对策建议。     

中国城市CO2排放和空气质量协同变化特征及驱动因素研究

城市既是受到气候变化和空气污染影响的重点区域,又是落实应对气候变化和大气污染防控政策的关键主体。在城市尺度上研究减污降碳政策的协同效应及其时空异质化的影响规律,将为因地制宜地制定减污降碳政策提供依据。本研究分析了2012—2019年我国284个地级市减污降碳协同效应指数的动态时空变化特征和规律;而后通过构建STIRPAT模型和地理时空加权回归（GTWR）模型,探讨了低碳政策、大气污染物防控政策、产业结构等驱动因素对减污降碳协同效应的时空异质化影响机制。结果表明：全国主要地级市耦合协调度指数平均值由2012年的0.79增加至2019年的0.85,环京津冀区域、汾渭平原等京津冀大气污染传输通道城市区域耦合协调度指数显著提高。以低碳试点城市为代表的区域,其降碳政策、减污政策、产业结构、人口规模、城镇化水平以及技术投入对减污降碳协同效应的影响存在显著的空间异质性。华北平原城市群作为大气污染防治的重点区域,主要通过减污政策提高协同效益;低碳政策主要在京津冀城市群、长江中游以及东南沿海地区城市发挥作用;中西部城市则主要通过产业结构调整、加大技术投入实现协同效益。最后,基于此提出促进城市减污降碳协同效益的对策建议。     

我国城市大气污染现状与特点

中国城市化和工业化的快速发展与能源消耗的迅速增加，给中国城市带来了很多空气污染问题。20世纪70年代期间，煤烟型污染排放成为中国工业城市的特点；80年代，许多南方城市遭受严重的酸雨危害；近年来，汽车尾气排放的NOx、CO及随后形成的光化学烟雾，使得许多大城市的空气质量恶化。城市空气污染影响着城市居民的健康和城市的发展。为控制空气污染和保护大气环境质量，我国政府已经实施了许多规划。本文概述了当前中国城市特别是重点城市的空气质量状况，描述一些主要城市空气污染物包括总悬浮颗粒、PM10、PM2．5、SO2、酸雨、NOx/NO2的特点。尽管采取了很多应对措施，但目前我国城市的空气质量依然不容乐观，文中还讨论了未来城市空气污染控制面临的问题。     

Urban air pollution and atmospheric diffusion research in China

Air pollution has become a serious problem in China as a result of that country's efforts in the last 30 years to become a great industrial power. The burning of coal, which currently provides over 70% of all China's energy needs, is a major source of air pollution. Because Chinese coal is high in sulfur and ash content and because most combustion devices in China have low efficiencies, SO₂ and particulate emissions are a serious problem and are comparable to or exceed those found in many countries that are much more industrialized. Although most coal is burned in North China, acid precipitation is most severe in South China because of the lack of buffering loess dust found in the former region.The Chinese government has already taken major steps to mitigate air pollution, such as relocating polluting industries, supplying coal with lower sulfur content, using gas instead of coal for residential heating, and levying fines on industries that exceed pollution standards. Atmospheric environmental impact assessment (AEIA) is also required for all major new projects. This article describes three types of mathematical diffusion models and field and wind-tunnel experiments that are used in such assessments.The Chinese authorities believe that a range of technological, managerial, locational, and behavioral changes must be effected before the air of Chinese cities can be significantly improved.     

典型石油型城市大气环境质量影响因素的多元统计模型研究——以大庆市为例

为了揭示石油资源型城市大气环境质量变化的影响因素,本文以大庆市为例,以SPSS17.0为分析工具,对影响大气环境质量的工业排放、经济发展、能源消耗、污染防治和气象等众多因素进行主成分分析、相关分析和回归分析,结果证明:大庆市大气环境质量的影响因素主要包括3个因子:污染排放和工业生产影响因子、对大气环境质量有利的(在特定时期内)GDP增长及气象影响因子和对大气环境质量改善有益的环境生产影响因子;并通过回归分析建立了大气环境质量影响因素的回归方程模型,经显著性检验,建立的回归方程具有一定程度的适用性和可信性。本文的研究对促进大庆市大气环境改善和大气环境相关研究具有一定参考价值,对其他城市大气环境的相关研究有一定的促进作用。     

我国大气细颗粒物污染防治目标和控制措施研究

我国面临着严重的细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染问题,PM2.5对人体健康、能见度、气候变化、生态系统等均产生了不良影响。本文旨在提出我国PM2.5污染防治目标和控制措施,为从根本上改善空气质量提供科学依据。首先,本文提出了2020年和2030年我国PM2.5污染防治目标。其次,采用能源和污染排放技术模型,分情景预测了我国未来一次大气污染物排放量的变化趋势。基于情景预测结果和此前研究建立的一次污染物排放与PM2.5浓度间的非线性关系,确定了2020年—2030年与PM2.5浓度改善相适应的全国和重点区域大气污染物减排目标。最后,利用能源和污染排放技术模型,提出了实现大气污染物减排的技术措施和对策建议。研究表明,2030年全国二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一次PM2.5和挥发性有机物的排放量应分别比2012年至少削减51%、64%、53%和36%,氨排放量也要略有下降。对于污染严重的重点区域,必须采取更严格的控制力度。要实现上述减排,应加快能源结构调整,推进煤炭清洁高效集中可持续利用,建立"车-油-路"一体的移动源控制体系,并强化多源多污染物的末端控制。     

Electric power and the environment: an analysis of pollutant emissions at Argentine state-owned electric power stations

This paper describes the impact on particulate and 'greenhouse gases' emissions of substitution policies implemented by Argentine state-owned electric power stations. Those policies involve the substitution, on the one hand, of hydroelectric and nuclear energy for conventional thermal energy and, on the other hand, of natural gas for fuel oil, diesel oil and coal. As additional investments are required in conventional thermal power stations to prevent environmental pollution, the investment savings generated by substitution policies have been calculated. While the environmental impact of hydroelectric, nuclear and natural gas facilities is locally significant and is experienced in geographical areas away from cities, there can be no doubt that the substitution policies implemented in the Argentine electricity sector have overall both ecological and economic benefits.     

多视角下东北地区城市碳排放责任核算与分布特征研究

城市作为经济发展和人口聚集的中心,已经成为全球应对气候变化的核心区域,核算碳排放责任并分析其分布特征对于制定城市低碳发展路径至关重要。东北地区作为我国的老工业基地,其“能源结构偏煤,产业结构偏重”的区域发展特征严重制约了东北地区的减排进程,开展碳排放责任研究有助于引导东北地区城市低碳发展。本研究分别从“生产者责任原则”“消费者责任原则”“供应者责任原则”三个视角构建碳排放责任核算模型,计算了东北地区36个城市的碳排放,并分析城市碳排放的差异性分布特征。研究结果显示,不同类型的城市在多种责任原则下的碳排放存在差异,碳排放的分布特征与城市的资源禀赋、产业结构和经济发展水平相关。本研究将为东北地区城市的碳排放责任分配提供理论依据和数据支持,并为其他城市的节能减排提供参考。     

空气污染物的时空演化及社会经济驱动因素研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

本文以2006—2015年长江三角洲城市群为研究对象,分析该地区不同部门因能源消费而产生的典型污染物排放量,然后利用LMDI模型,对空气污染进行社会经济驱动因素分析。结果表明:该地区CO_2、SO_2、PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)等空气污染物排放量均呈现先快速增长后缓慢减少的趋势,排放的峰值多出现在了2013年,而NO_x则一直保持增长的趋势。其中,电力与工业部门是空气污染物的主要排放源,但对排放量贡献呈减少趋势,生活部门与交通部门污染物排放量则逐步增长,尤其是对PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)排放量的贡献不可忽视。人口与经济增长对污染物排放量起到了正向拉动作用,经济因素的驱动作用最为明显,其效应值呈现先小幅增加后大幅下降的趋势,能源效率与能源结构有抑制作用,其对污染物排放的效应值仅次于经济因素,而能源结构变化的效应很小。     

Environmental and resource sustainability of Chinese cities: A review of issues,policies, practices and effects

This paper synthesizes the English literature on current issues, policies and practices, and their effects on environmental and resource sustainability in China's ongoing urbanization. Aspects of urban sustainability reviewed include air, water, solid waste, energy efficiency, transportation and land use. It shows that Chinese cities have been and probably will continue to be struggling with issues such as air pollution, scarcity of clean water, solid waste and greenhouse gas emissions. But there are many opportunities for improvement. It suggests shortages of existing policies and major gaps in knowledge and practice, which can be helpful to policy makers, planners and researchers in China and other developing countries.     

大气污染治理的“兰州经验”——基于环境保护与国家治理现代化的考察

近年来,我国大气污染防治工作取得了一定成效,但大气环境整体形势仍然十分严峻,如何防治大气污染成为政府和人民高度重视的问题。兰州市在大气污染治理工作取得了瞩目的效果并在治理活动中形成了丰富的经验,大气污染治理的"兰州经验"为环境治理以及国家治理现代化树立了一个可资借鉴的样板。针对生态文明建设过程中的难题,兰州市在大气污染治理过程中较好地了协调经济发展和环境保护之间的关系,抓住了完善能源结构和产业结构调整这一核心环节。更为重要的是,"兰州经验"体现了国家治理现代化的公共性、共治性以及有效性的核心价值理念,突显了国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要价值。在切实有效的权力运行机制保障下,兰州市在环境治理工作中运用了法治思维和法治方法,以坚强的执行力确保工作实效,同时还实现了广泛的社会参与,使得治理模式更为科学与民主。     

Policy evaluation of vehicle exhaust standards in Japan from 1995 to 2005 based on two human health risk indices for air pollution and global warming

Measures for vehicle exhaust emissions aimed at reducing either air pollution or global warming could have counterproductive effects on one another. Increasing diesel passenger vehicles, which generally have lower CO₂ emissions than gasoline counterparts, leads to increasing particulate matter (PM) emissions, while gasoline has lower PM emissions than diesel. It is said that stringent limits on PM emission factors discourages improved CO₂ emission factors. Without including both effects in a risk evaluation, one cannot evaluate whether the total risk is reduced or not. Hence, we evaluated representative exhaust emission measures based on risk evaluation for both air pollution and global warming. Considering consumer choice between diesel and gasoline passenger vehicles and emissions standards adopted in Japan from 1995 to 2005, we built five cases for vehicle policy evaluation. For each case, we estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as an index of human health risk caused by lung cancer linked to inhalation exposure of elemental carbon in PM as well as due to global warming linked to CO₂. The results of our risk evaluation reveal that the case adopting the 2005 new long-term Japanese emission standard reduces the human health risk caused by lung cancer due to air pollution by 0.6 × 10³ DALY, but would increase the risk due to global warming by 31.9 × 10³ DALY compared with the case of adopting EURO 4, for the same conditions of passenger vehicle choice from 1995. These results suggest that the characteristics of Japanese emissions standards are mainly designed to reduce air pollution.     

Exploring policy strategies for mitigating HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning

The growing demand for cooling throughout the world, possibly increased by global climate change, requires the implementation of policies to mitigate the related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy and refrigerant use in the refrigeration and air conditioning (RAC) sector. This article aims to contribute to the discussion on strategies to reduce HFC emissions from RAC by looking at their different temporal effects, caused by stock-flow dynamics. From scenario modeling, we find that containment strategies are often most effective in reducing HFC emissions in the short run, whereas phase out strategies have more potential in the long run. Further findings suggest that early and quick implementation of phase out strategies could lead to important reductions in cumulative HFC emissions, because stock build up is prevented. This timing effect is less pronounced for containment strategies. Lastly, emissions from disposal, if unabated, can lead to equally large emissions annually as those from use. Preference for several short-term benefits of containment strategies might lead to sub optimal emission reduction strategies, endangering long term GHG emission reduction.     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

Transportation energy in global cities: sustainable transportation comes in from the cold?

The energy, environmental and social benefits of sustainable transportation, i.e. public transit, biking and walking, have long been recognized but are now mainstream in global and local transportation policy debates. However, the economic value of sustainable transportation has always been seen as secondary, unless many external costs were included. The results of a new global study show that cities with significant sustainable transportation systems have reduced costs on road construction and maintenance; better operating cost recovery and fuel-efficiency; fewer road accidents and less air pollution. In overall terms, the percentage of city funds going to transportation is reduced. The data show that cities with the most roads have the highest transportation costs and the most rail-oriented cities have the lowest. Further, the most sprawling cities have the highest direct and indirect costs for transportation. Thus, strategies to contain sprawl, to reurbanize, to build new rail systems into car-dependent suburbs with focussed sub-centers, and to facilitate biking and walking, not only will improve energy efficiency but will reduce costs to the economy of a city. Strategies that build freeways and add to sprawl will do the opposite. Trends indicate that moves toward sustainable urban patterns are beginning. The need to operationalize sustainable transportation strategies in planning and engineering practice and in the politics of infrastructure funding remains a major challenge. Some cities are showing how this can be done.     

中国城镇居民食物消费碳排放的时空演变特征分析

本文运用碳折算系数法和投入产出模型测算了1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)城镇居民食物消费的人均直接碳排放、人均家庭间接碳排放和人均产业间接碳排放,并运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)对总碳排放的空间特征进行分析。研究表明:1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)人均间接碳排放在研究期内呈增长趋势,人均产业碳排放增长幅度最大且始终处于主导地位,大部分地区的人均直接碳排放增长较为缓慢;人均碳排放和总碳排放都呈显著增长趋势,人均碳排放的增长幅度宁夏>新疆>上海>浙江>青海>北京,甘肃最小,总碳排放增长幅度广东>浙江>山东>江苏>河北>上海,吉林最低;总碳排放在大部分年份呈正的空间相关性,整体上呈"M"形波动;局部空间自相关分析结果表明,食物消费总碳排放存在高高型和低高型两种,且2000年及以后高高型稳定在上海、江苏、浙江地区。最后,本文依据实证结果对如何降低城镇居民食物消费碳排放提出了相应的政策建议。     

Unveiling the liaison between human capital,trade openness,and environmental sustainability for BRICS economies: Robust panel-data estimation

Global warming and greenhouse gas emissions pose severe threats to environmental sustainability. A sustainable environment is a prerequisite for long-term socioeconomic growth and human survival. Green technology is brought about by a country's economic and financial openness, and education provides knowledge to the public and labor, contributing to environmental sustainability. Thus, this research aims to unveil the liaison between human capital, trade openness, and environmental quality for Russia, Brazil, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries from 1998 to 2018. Several econometric methods, including the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality approaches, reveal long-run and causal relationships among the modelled indicators. The Driscoll–Kraay standard error results show that human capital is negatively related to carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂ emissions). Imposing high tariffs and excise duties, changing tax structures, discouraging the inflow of polluted commodities, and encouraging green trade can help BRICS combat high environmental pollution. The results show that a one-point increase in human capital in models 1 and 2 can reduce CO₂ emissions by 1.5279 and 0.1538 points, respectively. In contrast, a 1% growth in trade can lead to a rise in CO₂ emissions of 0.3731% and 0.2384%, respectively. Similarly, financial development and energy consumption result in high CO₂ emissions in the long run. Moreover, a feedback effect of the human capital index on CO₂ emissions is discovered. As a result of the findings, the government and responsible authorities should provide financial support and encourage investments in the region's energy-resourceful and sustainable green projects.