Trends in seasonal precipitation and temperature in Slovenia during 1951–2007

A quality-controlled and enhanced database of 38 temperature and 52 precipitation stations was developed for Slovenia, a transitional area between Mediterranean, Alpine and continental climatic regimes, covering the period 1951–2007. Mean annual temperatures significantly increased in nearly all of Slovenia (except western areas) at rates between 0.15 and 0.36 °C/decade. Warming was most intense strongest in summer and spring in north-eastern Slovenia (0.3–0.4 °C/decade) and weakest in autumn. Precipitation trends were heterogeneous. Annual precipitation decreased significantly in the north-western part, at 3–6 % per decade. During spring and summer, decrease in rainfall by 3–6 % was detected in western Slovenia. No significant trends were found for the autumn season. In winter, precipitation decreased, by 3–12 % per decade, in particular in north-western Slovenia. As observed also elsewhere in Central Europe, changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns may have contributed to the observed long-term warming and drying in Slovenia. However, the strong warming in summer and spring, that is almost twice the trend observed in neighbouring countries, could be enhanced by drier soils caused by the decrease in winter precipitation in Slovenia.     

Livelihood strategies in endemic livestock production systems in sub-humid zone of West Africa: trends,trade-offs and implications

Rural livelihoods in West Africa depend largely on livestock. The sub-humid and humid zones of the region, however, are highly affected by the tsetse flies, vector of trypanosomosis, by severely limiting livestock production and livelihood options. Endemic ruminant livestock breeds are trypanotolerant, but perceived as inferior compared to other breeds in terms of productivity. The paper shows trends of relative decline in endemic population as a result of increased crossbreeding, largely with zebu cattle and Sahelian sheep and goats, and considerable decline in habitat quality due to forest conversion, logging activities and bushfires. The trade-offs between livelihoods and income strategies and endemic ruminant and habitat conservation are captured by an understanding of the socio-economic conditions and potential drivers of breed choices and forest use within households and communities. The paper shows that livelihood analysis is an important step in understanding impacts and therefore responses to development projects and to ensure that the poorest categories are not excluded from development interventions.     

Significant rainfall decreases and variations of the atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean (1950–2000)

This paper aims at identifying the link between significant rainfall decreases (1950–2000) in the Mediterranean basin and the atmospheric circulation at the 500 hPa level. The months and seasons of the subregions with significant rainfall decrease during this period have been identified previously (Norrant and Douguédroit, Theor Appl Climatol 83(1–4):89–106, 2006): October in the Mediterranean Iberia, March in the Atlantic Iberia, January and winter in Greece, and winter in the Near East. Canonical Correlation Analyses based on the monthly and daily data records from 62 rainfall stations and 138 grid points at the 500 hPa level over a Euro-Atlantic window were first calculated to define the TeleConnection Patterns explaining significant regional rainfall decreases. Then, 500 hPa level weather types (ZWTs) of the rainy days with important or little rainfall associated with each Teleconnection Pattern were identified in each subregion. Rainfall-causing disturbances from the Atlantic reach Iberia directly; some of them are regenerated if they reach the Mediterranean. Other disturbances are generated locally near Greece and the Near East (Meteorological Office in Weather in the Mediterranean I: general meteorology, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, London, 1962). The relationship between significant rainfall decreases and the corresponding 500 hPa level appears to be a nonlinear phenomenon. In all of the studied subregions, a break during the 1970s separates two subperiods differing significantly from each other. Rainfall decrease is due to the higher frequency of important rainfall ZWTs over low rainfall ZWTs, during the first period, which the opposite is true during the second period. Such an inversion could be partially linked with the prevailing North Atlantic Oscillation-positive phase during the last quarter of the twentieth century.     

Change in a butterfly community on a gradually overgrowing site

Monitoring of day-active butterflies by water pan traps method over the period 2001–2012 was conducted on a gradually overgrowing habitat in Ko?ick? kotlina basin (Slovakia). Totally, 1457 individuals of 57 species of butterflies were caught and evaluated. Monitoring revealed significant changes in the butterfly community which might be a consequence of a gradual overgrown of the study area. During the research, 12 butterfly species have disappeared from the study area. The monitoring provided results which point to the necessity of appropriate management for conservation of rare and protected butterfly species.     

Livestock foraging behaviour on different land use classes along the semi-arid to sub-humid agro-ecological gradient in West Africa

This study compared the use of different land use classes and major foraging activities of pastoral and agro-pastoral livestock in the southern Sahelian, northern and southern Sudanian zone of Burkina Faso by monitoring three herds each of cattle, goats and sheep in three village territories during a 1-year cycle. Grazing routes were tracked using a Global Positioning System; coordinates logged every 10 s were overlaid on maps from where time and activity allocated to different land use classes were derived. Results indicate that daily distance travelled by cattle and goat herds was similar across agro-ecological zones (AEZs; p ≥ 0.05), whereas sheep travelled shorter distances in the southern Sudanian zone than in the two more northern zones (p ≤ 0.05). Daily pasturing time of cattle and sheep was longer (p ≤ 0.05) in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than in the southern Sudanian zone. For goats, no significant difference was found between the two Sudanian zones, where their pasturing time was shorter than in the southern Sahelian zone. Except resting for cattle, browsing for goats and walking for sheep, time spent on different foraging activities by each species was similar across AEZs. Main areas for feeding across AEZs and species were degraded lands, fallows and harvested crop fields, as well as shrub and tree savannahs in the two Sudanian zones. To safeguard the nutrition of grazing livestock herds, interventions should focus on conserving still-existing pasture lands and regional livestock migration corridors to enable use of the remaining, often highly dispersed, pasture resources.     

Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century

In the context of climatic temperature studies, more often than not a time series is affected by artificial inhomogeneities. To overcome such limitation, we propose a new simple methodology in which promising results point not only toward the detection of unknown inhomogeneous periods but also toward the possibility of reconstructing the uncertain portion of the series. It is based on a parsimonious statistical downscaling (Multiple Linear Regression) of the large-scale 20CR reanalysis data. This method is successfully applied upon two long-range temperature series from a couple of centennial observatories (Ebre and Fabra, NE of Spain) which do not have nearby suitable temperature series to compare with. Results of trend analysis point to a clear signal of warming, with a larger rate of increase for the maximum temperature (respect to the minimum one), for the more recent decades (respect to the whole available period), and for the original series (respect to the reconstructed ones).     

Seasonal changes in daily precipitation extremes in mainland Portugal from 1941 to 2007

This study aims mostly at understanding seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events in mainland Portugal. For this purpose, selected precipitation indices that mainly focus on extremes were calculated at the seasonal scale for daily data recorded in the period 1941–2007 at 57 meteorological stations scattered across the area. These indices were explored for trends at the local and regional levels. The results show that there are marked changes in precipitation indices at the seasonal scale. Trends in spring and autumn precipitation have opposite signals. In spring, statistically significant drying trends are found together with a reduction in extremes. In autumn, wetting trends are detected for all indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5 % level. In addition, the relationship between seasonal extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric large-scale modes of low-frequency variability is analysed by means of a seasonal correlation analysis. Four modes of low-frequency variability are explored. Results confirm that, over mainland Portugal, the North Atlantic Oscillation is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in any season and the mode of variability that has the greatest influence on precipitation extremes in the area, particularly in the winter and autumn.     

Problems of cross-scale coastal management in Scandinavia

Transdisciplinary knowledge integration and cross-scale management remain challenges in coastal management after several decades of research and experience with integrated and sustainable coastal management. The aim of this paper is to identify requirements for knowledge integration and development of multi-scale approaches to coastal management through reviewing and re-analysing three Swedish-European research projects: the SUCOZOMA project about sustainable coastal zone management, the FRAP project about conflicts between coastal fishery and species protection, and the SECOA project about solutions to contrasts in coastal metropolitan areas. The strategy of adaptive governance is considered in the light of its ability to assess knowledge requirements for sustainable resource management under conditions of climate change.     

21,000 Years of Ethiopian African monsoon variability recorded in sediments of the western Nile deep-sea fan

The Nile delta sedimentation constitutes a continuous high-resolution record of Ethiopian African monsoon (EAM) regime intensity. Multi-proxy analyses performed on hemipelagic sediments deposited on the Nile deep-sea fan allow the quantification of the Saharan aeolian dust and the Blue/White Nile River suspended matter frequency fluctuations during the last 21,000 years. The radiogenic strontium and neodymium isotopes, clay mineralogy, elemental composition and preliminary palynological analyses reveal large changes in source components, oscillating between a dominant aeolian Saharan contribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the late Holocene (~4,000–2,000 years), a dominant Blue/Atbara Nile River contribution during the early Holocene (15,000–8,000 years) and a probable White Nile River contribution during the middle Holocene (8,000–4,000 years). The following main features are highlighted: (1) The rapid shift from the LGM arid conditions to the African Humid Period (AHP) started at about 15,000 years. The AHP extends until 8,000 years, and we suggest that the EAM maximum between 15,000 and 8,000 years is responsible for a larger Blue/Atbara Nile sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. (2) The transition between the AHP and the arid late Holocene is gradual and occurs in two main phases between 8,400–6,500 years and 6,500–3,200 years. We suggest that the main rain belt shifted southward from 8,000 to ~4,000 years and was responsible for progressively reduced sediment load and freshwater input into the eastern Mediterranean Sea. (3) The aridification along the Nile catchments occurred from ~4,000 to 2,000 years. This dry period, which culminates at 3,200 year, seems to coincide with a re-establishment of increased oceanic primary productivity in the western Mediterranean Sea. Such a pattern imposes a large and rapid northward shift of the rain belt over the Ethiopian highlands (5–15°N) since 15,000 years. Precipitation over Ethiopia increased from 15,000 to 8,000 years. It was followed by a gradual southward shift of the rain belt over the equator from 8,000 to 4,000 years and finally a large shift of the rain belt south the equator between 4,000 and 2,000 years inducing North African aridification. We postulate that the decrease in thermohaline water Mediterranean circulation could be part of a response to huge volumes of freshwater delivered principally by the Nile River from 15,000 to 8,000 years in the eastern Mediterranean.     

Land cover transitions and effects of transhumance on available forage biomass of rangelands in Benin

This study examined the effects of transhumance pressure on total abavoe-ground biomass and forage availability on rangelands in Benin. We also investigated the implications of land cover transitions on rangelands over a 31-year period. Our work was carried out in three regions of Benin representing distinct phytogeographic regimes: Ketou, Tchaourou, and Sinende. Ground-truthing and biomass sampling of the herbaceous and phanaerophyte strata were carried out between the 2016 peak vegetation period and the onset of the 2017 rainy season. Herbaceous biomass was determined by destructive sampling, and biomass of shrub and trees was estimated using non-destructive sampling and allometric equations. Historical and present-day Landsat data allowed an analysis of land cover change for the 1986–2002 and 2002–2017 periods. Land cover analyses yielded evidence of significant expansion of agricultural areas, especially in the latter period. The data also revealed progressive landscape fragmentation and transformations to a land cover of reduced total phytomass. There were no long-term effects of transhumance on trees, but likely on herbaceous biomass. Land cover changes in the study regions seem primarily the result of population pressure, infrastructural changes, persisting norms, and traditions regarding environmental management and the increasing popularity of livestock keeping as an insurance strategy. Rangeland transformations had negative impacts on transhumant herds’ mobility and forage availability. As rangeland stability and consent between agricultural and pastoral land users are at a tipping point, informed policies, and land use planning that foster compromises among all stakeholders are needed.

     

Markets and climate are driving rapid change in farming practices in Savannah West Africa

Agricultural practices have constantly changed in West Africa, and understanding the factors that have driven the changes may help guide strategies to promote sustainable agriculture in the region. To contribute to such efforts, this paper analyzes drivers of change in farming practices in the region using data obtained from surveys of 700 farming households in five countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger and Senegal). The results showed that farmers have adopted various practices in response to the challenges they have faced during the last decade. A series of logit models showed that most changes farmers made to their practices are undertaken for multiple reasons. Land use and management changes including expanding farmed areas and using mineral fertilization and manure are positively related to perceived changes in the climate, such as more erratic rainfall. Planting new varieties, introducing new crops, crop rotation, expanding farmed area and using pesticides are positively associated with new market opportunities. Farm practices that require relatively high financial investment such as use of pesticides, drought-tolerant varieties and improved seeds were positively associated with the provision of technical and financial support for farmers through development projects and policies. Changes in markets and climate are both helping to promote needed changes in farming practices in West Africa. Therefore, policies that foster the development of markets for agricultural products, and improved weather- and climate-related information linked to knowledge of appropriate agricultural innovations in different environments are needed.     

岷江上游地区的草地资源与畜牧业发展

岷江上游草地面积837226hm^2,大约占了该区土地面积的35％。这块草地蕴藏着丰富的生物多样性,具有重要的生态学功能,是岷江上游绿色生态屏障的重要组成部分。高山草甸草地和亚高山草甸草地是该区的主要植被类型,其面积分别占草地总面积的54．8％和17．2％,其产草量分别占该区各类草地总产草量的53．47％和26．46％。岷江上游各县天然草地的面积和各县草地畜牧业在经济结构中所占的比重都表现了从高海拔到低海拔递变的趋势,基本上与植被的垂直梯度变化相耦合。指出了当前草地畜牧业发展存在的一些问题：超载过牧现象严重,生产效率低下,集约化水平低。除了饲草的生产与加工、畜种改良和草种改良等措施外,结合岷江上游的实际情况,在发展的思路和技术措施上着重阐述了以下几个方面：发展特色畜牧业,摒弃头数畜牧业;以市场为导向的主动畜群时空周转;结合“天保工程”和“退耕还林工程”,促进农林牧业的紧密结合。     

Determinants for cassava production expansion in the semi-arid zone of West Africa

The study focuses on evaluating factors that farmers consider relevant in adopting cassava production in five semi-arid zone of West African countries. The study is based on primary data randomly collected as part of collaborative study of cassava in semiarid zones of Africa (COSCASSA) village level survey from five West African countries namely: Nigeria, Ghana, Chad, Niger and Burkina Faso. This study models effects of farm, farmer and technology specific factors on the decision of semi arid farmers to adopt cassava into their farming system. By way of threshold decision models—Probit and Logit models, the estimation of each country and the pooled data adoption models reveal different adoption models for the countries considered. For each country, different variables appeared as major adoption shifters. Comparatively, the adoption models for Nigeria and whole region appear to have the highest significance variables, being seven in number. This is followed by Chad (6), Ghana (4), and Burkina Faso and Niger with three each. For the variables considered, distance to nearby urban market appears a major adoption shifter in all the country, except for Niger. This is closely followed by contact with extension, variety, pest/disease resistance and livestock feeds, which appear significant in four of the countries. Membership of cooperative societies appears as the least adoption predictor, which is only significant in Chad republic. The study therefore recognizes the importance of varietial characteristics and farmers’ characteristics in acceptance of cassava as a major root tuber crop in the semi arid region of West Africa. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Present and future climate resources for various types of tourism in the Bay of Palma,Spain

The Bay of Palma, in Mallorca, is a leading region for beach holidays in Europe. It is based on a mass tourism model strongly modulated by seasonality and with high environmental costs. Main tourism stakeholders are currently implementing complementary activities to mitigate seasonality, regardless of climate change. But climate is—and will remain—a key resource or even a limitation for many types of tourism. Assessing the present conditions and exploring the future evolution of climate potential for these activities have become a priority in this area. To this end, the climate index for tourism (CIT)—originally designed to rate the climate resource of beach tourism—is adapted to specifically appraise cycling, cultural tourism, football, golf, motor boating, sailing and hiking. Climate resources are derived by using observed and projected daily meteorological data. Projections have been obtained from a suite of Regional Climate Models run under the A1B emissions scenario. To properly derive CITs at such local scale, we apply a statistical adjustment. Present climate potentials ratify the appropriateness of the Bay of Palma for satisfactorily practicing all the examined activities. However, optimal conditions are projected to degrade during the peak visitation period while improving in spring and autumn. That is, climate change could further exacerbate the present imbalance between the seasonal distributions of ideal climate potentials and high attendance levels. With this information at hand, policy makers and regional tourism stakeholders can respond more effectively to the great challenge of local adaptation to climate change.     

Teleconnections,midlatitude cyclones and Aegean Sea turbulent heat flux variability on daily through decadal time scales

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958–2001 and identify four distinct “cyclone states,” corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc) and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deepwater formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern, showing that the area of influence of large-scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.     

Assessing and managing intensification in smallholder dairy systems for food and nutrition security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers play an important part in the dairy value chain in Sub-Saharan Africa. Three technological approaches have been used to improve productivity. These are through, applying agricultural ecological processes (ecological intensification), utilising modern livestock breeding (genetic intensification), and socio-economic intensification. Ecological intensification includes continuous housing of cows applying a cut-and-carry feeding system, introduction of purpose-bred forages and pastures, and the introduction of agro-forestry within the dairy systems. Genetic intensification strategies include: importation of dairy breeds such as Holstein–Friesian (HF) and cross-breeding of the indigenous breeds with HF. Training and capacity-building activities to create sustainable livelihoods have been initiated for farming and technological practices of animal husbandry, but also to enhance appropriate leadership and corporative-building skills that would create and support an enabling environment for sustainability. These improvements and initiatives in the service delivery have been championed by national governments, development partner institutions, or non-governmental organisations through different programmes. Challenges of intensification include matching management to genetic potential of imported and cross-bred improved dairy breeds, ensuring low post-harvest losses, proper utilisation, and reducing environmental impact. Using examples from Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia, this paper reviews the management and assessment approaches used in fostering smallholder dairy development strategies and dairy’s contribution to sustainable livelihoods in the face of intensification.     

The use of biomass production and allometric models to estimate carbon sequestration of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jatropha curcas</Emphasis> L. plantations in western Burkina Faso

The topic of carbon sequestration in plants has received much attention recently due to concerns about global climate change, which is being exacerbated by deforestation. In the early days of the global bioenergy boom, the private sector and non-government organizations enthusiastically promoted the planting of Jatropha curcas L. as a key candidate shrub species for the production of bioenergy in West Africa. This study investigates the aboveground biomass production and carbon sequestration potential of J. curcas, which is already widely cultivated for the production of oil seeds, biodiesel and biokerosene. The specific objective is to use a destructive method to develop allometric prediction equations of the aboveground biomass production of J. curcas plantations. 38 J. curcas shrubs were harvested and weighed in order to estimate biomass production. These data were used to develop allometric equations for the estimation of wood, leaf and total aboveground biomass production. The best-fit models found for estimating shrub component biomass and total aboveground biomass production were of the power form. All of the regression equations relating the prediction of leaf biomass, wood biomass and total aboveground biomass with J. curcas diameter at 20 cm above the ground (D) were statistically significant (p < 0.001) and also presented the highest goodness of fit (high R ²). The aboveground biomass carbon content was estimated using the ash method. Carbon content in leaves and wood was, respectively, 48 and 54 %. The current established allometric equations can be helpful to provide a rapid estimation of the aboveground biomass and C stock for J. curcas biofuel projects in semi-arid conditions.     

Delineation of potential ground water-bearing zones in the Barind tract of West Bengal,India

The Barind tract of West Bengal is an area of tropical sub-humid region composed of old alluvial soil. The area has high water demand due to growing population pressure and intensification in agricultural activity. These create huge stress on surface and ground water availability. Continuous withdrawal of ground water has become an alternative source of irrigation water which has also again made the condition critical. Ground water level has been lowered down drastically in many parts in this region. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to delineate potential ground water-bearing layers. Therefore, the present study attempts to identify potential ground water-bearing zones to manage ground water effectively. Instead of usually used parameters for ground water potentiality delineation here only some particular litholog parameters like breadth of water-bearing layer, depth of water-bearing layer, presence of clay layer above or below major water-bearing layer have been considered for delimiting the same. The result shows that out of total area, 60% area (405,382.2 ha) falls under very low to low potential ground water-bearing zone and only 8.19% area (55,634.97 ha) is potential. Considering this spatial pattern of ground water availability, harvesting structure and magnitude of water withdrawing should be designed.