Ecological consequences of forest elephant declines for Afrotropical forests

Poaching is rapidly extirpating African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) from most of their historical range, leaving vast areas of elephant‐free tropical forest. Elephants are ecological engineers that create and maintain forest habitat; thus, their loss will have large consequences for the composition and structure of Afrotropical forests. Through a comprehensive literature review, we evaluated the roles of forest elephants in seed dispersal, nutrient recycling, and herbivory and physical damage to predict the cascading ecological effects of their population declines. Loss of seed dispersal by elephants will favor tree species dispersed abiotically and by smaller dispersal agents, and tree species composition will depend on the downstream effects of changes in elephant nutrient cycling and browsing. Loss of trampling and herbivory of seedlings and saplings will result in high tree density with release from browsing pressures. Diminished seed dispersal by elephants and high stem density are likely to reduce the recruitment of large trees and thus increase homogeneity of forest structure and decrease carbon stocks. The loss of ecological services by forest elephants likely means Central African forests will be more like Neotropical forests, from which megafauna were extirpated thousands of years ago. Without intervention, as much as 96% of Central African forests will have modified species composition and structure as elephants are compressed into remaining protected areas. Stopping elephant poaching is an urgent first step to mitigating these effects, but long‐term conservation will require land‐use planning that incorporates elephant habitat into forested landscapes that are being rapidly transformed by industrial agriculture and logging.     

Coexistence of the niche and neutral perspectives in community ecology

The neutral theory for community structure and biodiversity is dependent on the assumption that species are equivalent to each other in all important ecological respects. We explore what this concept of equivalence means in ecological communities, how such species may arise evolutionarily, and how the possibility of ecological equivalents relates to previous ideas about niche differentiation. We also show that the co-occurrence of ecologically similar or equivalent species is not incompatible with niche theory as has been supposed, because niche relations can sometimes favor coexistence of similar species. We argue that both evolutionary and ecological processes operate to promote the introduction and to sustain the persistence of ecologically similar and in many cases nearly equivalent species embedded in highly structured food webs. Future work should focus on synthesizing niche and neutral perspectives rather than dichotomously debating whether neutral or niche models provide better explanations for community structure and biodiversity.     

Meta‐Analysis of the Effects of Human Disturbance on Seed Dispersal by Animals

Animal‐mediated seed dispersal is important for sustaining biological diversity in forest ecosystems, particularly in the tropics. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging modify forests in myriad ways and their effects on animal‐mediated seed dispersal have been examined in many case studies. However, the overall effects of different types of human disturbance on animal‐mediated seed dispersal are still unknown. We identified 35 articles that provided 83 comparisons of animal‐mediated seed dispersal between disturbed and undisturbed forests; all comparisons except one were conducted in tropical or subtropical ecosystems. We assessed the effects of forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging on seed dispersal of fleshy‐fruited tree species. We carried out a meta‐analysis to test whether forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging affected 3 components of animal‐mediated seed dispersal: frugivore visitation rate, number of seeds removed, and distance of seed dispersal. Forest fragmentation, hunting, and selective logging did not affect visitation rate and were marginally associated with a reduction in seed‐dispersal distance. Hunting and selective logging, but not fragmentation, were associated with a large reduction in the number of seeds removed. Fewer seeds of large‐seeded than of small‐seeded tree species were removed in hunted or selectively logged forests. A plausible explanation for the consistently negative effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐seeded plant species is that large frugivores, as the predominant seed dispersers for large‐seeded plant species, are the first animals to be extirpated from hunted or logged forests. The reduction in forest area after fragmentation appeared to have weaker effects on frugivore communities and animal‐mediated seed dispersal than hunting and selective logging. The differential effects of hunting and selective logging on large‐ and small‐seeded tree species underpinned case studies that showed disrupted plant‐frugivore interactions could trigger a homogenization of seed traits in tree communities in hunted or logged tropical forests. Meta Análisis de los Efectos de la Perturbación Humana sobre la Dispersión de Semillas por Animales     

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity: do the numbers add up?

Hubbell's unified neutral theory is a zero-sum ecological drift model in which population sizes change at random in a process resembling genetic drift, eventually leading to extinction. Diversity is maintained within the community by speciation. Hubbell's model makes predictions about the distribution of species abundances within communities and the turnover of species from place to place (beta diversity). However, ecological drift cannot be tested adequately against these predictions without independent estimates of speciation rates, population sizes, and dispersal distances. A more practical prediction from ecological drift is that time to extinction of a population of size N is approximately 2N generations. I test this prediction here using data for passerine birds (Passeriformes). Waiting times to speciation and extinction were estimated from genetic divergence between sister populations and a lineage-through-time plot for endemic South American suboscine passerines. Population sizes were estimated from local counts of birds in two large forest plots extrapolated to the area of wet tropical forest in South America and from atlas data on European passerines. Waiting times to extinction (ca. 2 Ma) are much less than twice the product of average population size (4.0 and 14.4 x 10(6) individuals in South America and Europe) and generation length (five and three years) for songbirds, that is, 40 and 86 Ma, respectively. Thus, drift is too slow to account for turnover in regional avifaunas. Presumably, other processes, involving external drivers, such as climate and physiographic change, and internal drivers, such as evolutionary change in antagonistic interactions, predominate. Hubbell's model is historical and geographic, and his perspective importantly links local and regional process and pattern. Ecological reality can be added to the mix while retaining Hubbell's concept of continuity of communities in space and time.     

Seed predation by Neotropical rain forest mammals increases diversity in seedling recruitment

Seed dispersal and seedling recruitment (the transition of seeds to seedlings) set the spatiotemporal distribution of new individuals in plant communities. Many terrestrial rain forest mammals consume post-dispersal seeds and seedlings, often inflicting density-dependent mortality. In part because of density-dependent mortality, diversity often increases during seedling recruitment, making it a critical stage for species coexistence. We determined how mammalian predators, adult tree abundance, and seed mass interact to affect seedling recruitment in a western Amazonian rain forest. We used exclosures that were selectively permeable to three size classes of mammals: mice and spiny rats (weighing <1 kg), medium-sized rodents (1-12 kg), and large mammals (20-200 kg). Into each exclosure, we placed seeds of 13 tree species and one canopy liana, which varied by an order of magnitude in adult abundance and seed mass. We followed the fates of the seeds and resulting seedlings for at least 17 months. We assessed the effect of each mammalian size class on seed survival, seedling survival and growth, and the density and diversity of the seedlings that survived to the end of the experiment. Surprisingly, large mammals had no detectable effect at any stage of seedling recruitment. In contrast, small- and medium-sized mammals significantly reduced seed survival, seedling survival, and seedling density. Furthermore, predation by small mammals increased species richness on a per-stem basis. This increase in diversity resulted from their disproportionately intense predation on common species and large-seeded species. Small mammals thereby generated a rare-species advantage in seedling recruitment, the critical ingredient for frequency dependence. Predation by small (and to a lesser extent, medium-sized) mammals on seeds and seedlings significantly increases tree species diversity in tropical forests. This is the first long-term study to dissect the effects of various mammalian predators on the recruitment of a diverse set of tree species.     

Seed arrival and ecological filters interact to assemble high-diversity plant communities

Two prominent mechanisms proposed to structure biodiversity are niche-based ecological filtering and chance arrival of propagules from the species pool. Seed arrival is hypothesized to play a particularly strong role in high-diversity plant communities with large potential species pools and many rare species, but few studies have explored how seed arrival and local ecological filters interactively assemble species-rich communities in space and time. We experimentally manipulated seed arrival and multiple ecological filters in high-diversity, herbaceous-dominated groundcover communities in longleaf pine savannas, which contain the highest small-scale species richness in North America (up to > 40 species/m2). We tested three hypotheses: (1) local communities constitute relatively open-membership assemblages, in which increased seed arrival from the species pool strongly increases species richness; (2) ecological filters imposed by local fire intensity and soil moisture influence recruitment and richness of immigrating species; and (3) ecological filters increase similarity in the composition of immigrating species. In a two-year factorial field experiment, we manipulated local fire intensity by increasing pre-fire fuel loads, soil moisture using rain shelters and irrigation, and seed arrival by adding seeds from the local species pool. Seed arrival increased species richness regardless of fire intensity and soil moisture but interacted with both ecological filters to influence community assembly. High-intensity fire decreased richness of resident species, suggesting an important abiotic filter. In contrast, high-intensity fire increased recruitment and richness of immigrating species, presumably by decreasing effects of other ecological filters (competition and resource limitation) in postfire environments. Drought decreased recruitment and richness of immigrating species, whereas wet soil conditions increased recruitment but decreased or had little effect on richness. Moreover, some ecological filters (wet soil conditions and, to a lesser extent, high-intensity fire) increased similarity in the composition of immigrating species, illustrating conditions that influence deterministic community assembly in species-rich communities. Our experiment provides insights into how dispersal-assembly mechanisms may interact with niche-assembly mechanisms in space (spatial variation in disturbance) and time (temporal variation in resource availability) to structure high-diversity communities and can help guide conservation of threatened longleaf pine ecosystems in the face of habitat fragmentation and environmental change.     

Tree recruitment in an empty forest

To assess how the decimation of large vertebrates by hunting alters recruitment processes in a tropical forest, we compared the sapling cohorts of two structurally and compositionally similar forests in the Rio Manu floodplain in southeastern Peru. Large vertebrates were severely depleted at one site, Boca Manu (BM), whereas the other, Cocha Cashu Biological Station (CC), supported an intact fauna. At both sites we sampled small (> or =1 m tall, <1 cm dbh) and large (> or =1 cm and <10 cm dbh) saplings in the central portion of 4-ha plots within which all trees > or =10 cm dbh were mapped and identified. This design ensured that all conspecific adults within at least 50 m (BM) or 55 m (CC) of any sapling would have known locations. We used the Janzen-Connell model to make five predictions about the sapling cohorts at BM with respect to CC: (1) reduced overall sapling recruitment, (2) increased recruitment of species dispersed by abiotic means, (3) altered relative abundances of species, (4) prominence of large-seeded species among those showing depressed recruitment, and (5) little or no tendency for saplings to cluster closer to adults at BM. Our results affirmed each of these predictions. Interpreted at face value, the evidence suggests that few species are demographically stable at BM and that up to 28% are increasing and 72% decreasing. Loss of dispersal function allows species dispersed abiotically and by small birds and mammals to substitute for those dispersed by large birds and mammals. Although we regard these conclusions as preliminary, over the long run, the observed type of directional change in tree composition is likely to result in biodiversity loss and negative feedbacks on both the animal and plant communities. Our results suggest that the best, and perhaps only, way to prevent compositional change and probable loss of diversity in tropical tree communities is to prohibit hunting.     

Terrestrial vertebrates alter seedling composition and richness but not diversity in an Australian tropical rain forest

Although birds and mammals play important roles in several mechanisms hypothesized to maintain plant diversity in species-rich habitats, there have been few long-term, community-level tests of their importance. We excluded terrestrial birds and mammals from fourteen 6 x 7.5 m plots in Australian primary tropical rain forest and compared recruitment and survival of tree seedlings annually over the subsequent seven years to that on nearby open plots. We re-censused a subset of the plots after 13 years of vertebrate exclusion to test for longer-term effects. After two years of exclusion, seedling abundance was significantly higher (74%) on exclosure plots and remained so at each subsequent census. Richness was significantly higher on exclosure plots from 1998 to 2003, but in 2009 richness no longer differed, and rarefied species richness was higher in the presence of vertebrates. Shannon's diversity and Pielou's evenness did not differ in any year. Vertebrates marginally increased density-dependent mortality and recruitment limitation, but neither effect was great enough to increase richness or diversity on open plots relative to exclosure plots. Terrestrial vertebrates significantly altered seedling community composition, having particularly strong impacts on members of the Lauraceae. Overall, our results highlight that interactions between terrestrial vertebrates and tropical tree recruitment may not translate into strong community-level effects on diversity, especially over the short-term, despite significant impacts on individual species that result in altered species composition.     

Effect of Slash-and-Burn Shifting Cultivation on Rainforest Birds in Mizoram, Northeast India

Abstract: Slash-and-burn shifting cultivation, or jhum , the predominant form of agriculture in the hill tracts of northeast India, is believed to have caused considerable loss of forest cover in the species-rich tropical rainforests of the region. In this study I sought to understand how rainforest bird communities are affected by shifting cultivation in Mizoram State. I studied bird occurrence and abundance patterns in secondary successional and mature tropical rainforests in a shifting-cultivation habitat mosaic in Dampa Tiger Reserve. To compare replicate sites in fallows aged 1, 5, 10, 25, and 100 years with undisturbed primary forest, I used systematic strip-transect sampling over the winter and early summer ( breeding) seasons during 1994–1995. Many forest bird species, especially those with ranges restricted to northeast India, declined in abundance or disappeared in successional fallows that had regenerated for ≤10 years. Birds that colonized or increased in abundance in regrowth habitats were mainly common and widespread species of open-country and secondary-forest habitats, and of low importance for conservation. Primary forest was the main habitat for specialized forest birds, intrinsically rare species, and elevational migrants. Although protection and conservation of relatively undisturbed mature forests is imperative in the core area of the reserve, management in the buffer zone for long-rotation shifting cultivation (>10-year cycles) instead of plantation of monocultures may be important until alternate means of livelihood are available to cultivators.     

Experimental manipulation of seed shadows of an Afrotropical tree determines drivers of recruitment

The loss of animals in tropical forests may alter seed dispersal patterns and reduce seedling recruitment of tree species, but direct experimental evidence is scarce. We manipulated dispersal patterns of Manilkara mabokeensis, a monkey-dispersed tree, to assess the extent to which spatial distributions of seeds drive seedling recruitment. Based on the natural seed shadow, we created seed distributions with seeds deposited under the canopy ("no dispersal"), with declining density from the tree ("natural dispersal"), and at uniform densities ("good dispersal"). These distributions mimicked dispersal patterns that could occur with the extirpation of monkeys, low levels of hunting, and high rates of seed dispersal. We monitored seedling emergence and survival for 18 months and recorded the number of leaves and damage to leaves. "Good dispersal" increased seedling survival by 26%, and "no dispersal" decreased survival by 78%, relative to "natural dispersal." Using a mixed-effects survival model, we decoupled the distance and density components of the seed shadow: seedling survival depended on the seed density, but not on the distance from the tree. Although community seedling diversity tended to decrease with longer dispersal distances, we found no conclusive evidence that patterns of seed dispersal influence the diversity of the seedling community. Local seed dispersal does affect seedling recruitment and survival, with better dispersal resulting in higher seedling recruitment; hence the loss of dispersal services that comes with the reduction or extirpation of seed dispersers will decrease regeneration of some tree species.     

Low Recruitment of Trees Dispersed by Animals in African Forest Fragments

Abstract: We investigated the effects of forest fragmentation on the disappearance of fruit-eating animals and the recruitment of animal-, wind-, and gravity-dispersed trees in 80-year-old forest patches in the East Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. We compared adult and juvenile trees in forest transects in a 3500–ha submontane forest with those in four forest fragments of 521, 30, 9, and 0.5 ha. Preliminary results show that recruitment of seedlings and juveniles of 31 animal-dispersed tree species was more than three times greater in continuous forest and large forest fragments (≥30 ha) than in small forest fragments (≤9 ha), whereas recruitment of eight wind- and gravity-dispersed trees of the forest interior was unaffected. Recruitment of 10 endemic, animal-dispersed tree species was 40 times lower in small fragments than in continuous forest or large fragments. Counts of diurnal primates and birds in all five sites indicated that frugivorous species have declined with decreasing fragment size. These results are consistent with the idea that loss of dispersal agents depresses tree recruitment in the course of forest fragmentation.     

Quantifying the importance of local niche-based and stochastic processes to tropical tree community assembly

Although niche-based and stochastic processes, including dispersal limitation and demographic stochasticity, can each contribute to community assembly, it is difficult to quantify the relative importance of each process in natural vegetation. Here, we extend Shipley's maxent model (Community Assembly by Trait Selection, CATS) for the prediction of relative abundances to incorporate both trait-based filtering and dispersal limitation from the larger landscape and develop a statistical decomposition of the proportions of the total information content of relative abundances in local communities that are attributable to trait-based filtering, dispersal limitation, and demographic stochasticity. We apply the method to tree communities in a mature, species-rich, tropical forest in French Guiana at 1-, 0.25- and 0.04-ha scales. Trait data consisted of species' means of 17 functional traits measured over both the entire meta-community and separately in each of nine 1-ha plots. Trait means calculated separately for each site always gave better predictions. There was clear evidence of trait-based filtering at all spatial scales. Trait-based filtering was the most important process at the 1-ha scale (34%), whereas demographic stochasticity was the most important at smaller scales (37-53%). Dispersal limitation from the meta-community was less important and approximately constant across scales (-9%), and there was also an unresolved association between site-specific traits and meta-community relative abundances. Our method allows one to quantify the relative importance of local niche-based and meta-community processes and demographic stochasticity during community assembly across spatial and temporal scales.     

A nearly neutral model of biodiversity

S. P. Hubbell's unified neutral theory of biodiversity has stimulated much new thinking about biodiversity. However, empirical support for the neutral theory is limited, and several observations are inconsistent with the predictions of the theory, including positive correlations between traits associated with competitive ability and species abundance and correlations between species diversity and ecosystem functioning. The neutral theory can be extended to explain these observations by allowing species to differ slightly in their competitive ability (fitness). Here, we show that even slight differences in fecundity can greatly reduce the time to extinction of competitors even when the community size is large and dispersal is spatially limited. In this case, species richness is dramatically reduced, and a markedly different species abundance distribution is predicted than under pure neutrality. In the nearly neutral model, species co-occur in the same community not because of, but in spite of, ecological differences. The more competitive species with higher fecundity tend to have higher abundance both in the metacommunity and in local communities. The nearly neutral perspective provides a theoretical framework that unites the sampling model of the neutral theory with theory of biodiversity affecting ecosystem function.     

Directional changes in the species composition of a tropical forest

Long-term studies have revealed that the structure and dynamics of many tropical forests are changing, but the causes and consequences of these changes remain debated. To learn more about the forces driving changes within tropical forests, we investigated shifts in tree species composition over the past 25 years within the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and examined how observed patterns relate to predictions of (1) random population fluctuations, (2) carbon fertilization, (3) succession from past disturbance, (4) recovery from an extreme El Ni?o drought at the start of the study period, and (5) long-term climate change. We found that there have been consistent and directional changes in the tree species composition. These shifts have led to increased relative representations of drought-tolerant species as determined by the species' occurrence both across a gradient of soil moisture within BCI and across a wider precipitation gradient from a dry forest near the Pacific coast of Panama to a wet forest near its Caribbean coast. These nonrandom changes cannot be explained by stochastic fluctuations or carbon fertilization. They may be the legacy of the El Ni?o drought, or alternatively, potentially reflect increased aridity due to long-term climate change. By investigating compositional changes, we increased not only our understanding of the ecology of tropical forests and their responses to large-scale disturbances, but also our ability to predict how future global change will impact some of the critical services provided by these important ecosystems.     

Recruitment of Hornbill-Dispersed Trees in Hunted and Logged Forests of the Indian Eastern Himalaya

Abstract:  Hunting of hornbills by tribal communities is widespread in logged foothill forests of the Indian Eastern Himalaya. We investigated whether the decline of hornbills has affected the dispersal and recruitment of 3 large-seeded tree species. We hypothesized that 2 low-fecundity tree species , Chisocheton paniculatus and Dysoxylum binectariferum (Meliaceae) bearing arillate fruits, are more dispersal limited than a prolifically fruiting drupaceous tree Polyalthia simiarum (Annonaceae), which has potential dispersers other than hornbills. We estimated the abundance of large avian frugivores during the fruiting season along transects in 2 protected and 2 disturbed forests. We compared recruitment of the tree species near (<10 m) and far (10–40 m) from parent trees at protected and disturbed sites. Median abundance of Great ( Buceros bicornis ), Wreathed ( Aceros undulatus ), and Oriental Pied Hornbills ( Anthracoceros albirostris ) were significantly lower in disturbed forests, but sites did not differ in abundances of the Mountain Imperial Pigeon ( Ducula badia ). Overall, tree species showed more severely depressed recruitment of seedlings (77% fewer) and juveniles (69% fewer) in disturbed than in protected forests. In disturbed forests, 93% fewer seedlings of C. paniculatus were beyond parental crowns, and a high number of all seedlings (42%) accumulated directly under reproductive adults. In contrast , D. binectariferum and P. simiarum were recruitment rather than dispersal limited, with fewer dispersed seedlings surviving in disturbed than in protected forests. Results are consistent with the idea that disturbance disrupts mutualisms between hornbills and some large-seeded food plants, with the caveat that role redundancy within even small and specialized disperser assemblages renders other tree species less vulnerable to loss of regular dispersal agents.     

Life history trade-offs in tropical trees and lianas

It has been hypothesized that tropical trees partition forest light environments through a life history trade-off between juvenile growth and survival; however, the generality of this trade-off across life stages and functional groups has been questioned. We quantified trade-offs between growth and survival for trees and lianas on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama using first-year seedlings of 22 liana and 31 tree species and saplings (10 mm < dbh < 39 mm) of 30 tree species. Lianas showed trade-offs similar to those of trees, with both groups exhibiting broadly overlapping ranges in survival and relative growth rates as seedlings. Life history strategies at the seedling stage were highly correlated with those at the sapling stage among tree species, with all species showing an increase in survival with size. Only one of 30 tree species demonstrated a statistically significant ontogenetic shift, having a relatively lower survival rate at the sapling stage than expected. Our results indicate that similar life history trade-offs apply across two functional groups (lianas and trees), and that life history strategies are largely conserved across seedling and sapling life-stages for most tropical tree species.     

Slow recovery of tropical old‐field rainforest regrowth and the value and limitations of active restoration

There is current debate about the potential for secondary regrowth to rescue tropical forests from an otherwise inevitable cascade of biodiversity loss due to land clearing and scant evidence to test how well active restoration may accelerate recovery. We used site chronosequences to compare developmental trajectories of vegetation between self‐organized (i.e., spontaneous) forest regrowth and biodiversity plantings (established for ecological restoration, with many locally native tree species at high density) in the Australian wet tropics uplands. Across 28 regrowth sites aged 1–59 years, some structural attributes reached reference rainforest levels within 40 years, whereas wood volume and most tested components of native plant species richness (classified by species’ origins, family, and ecological functions) reached less than 50% of reference rainforest values. Development of native tree and shrub richness was particularly slow among species that were wind dispersed or animal dispersed with large (>10 mm) seeds. Many species with animal‐dispersed seeds were from near‐basal evolutionary lineages that contribute to recognized World Heritage values of the study region. Faster recovery was recorded in 25 biodiversity plantings of 1–25 years in which wood volume developed more rapidly; native woody plant species richness reached values similar to reference rainforest and was better represented across all dispersal modes; and species from near‐basal plant families were better (although incompletely) represented. Plantings and regrowth showed slow recovery in species richness of vines and epiphytes and in overall resemblance to forest in species composition. Our results can inform decision making about when and where to invest in active restoration and provide strong evidence that protecting old‐growth forest is crucially important for sustaining tropical biodiversity.     

The memory of spatial patterns: changes in local abundance and aggregation in a tropical forest

The current spatial pattern of a population is the result of previous individual birth, death, and dispersal events. We present a simple model followed by a comparative analysis for a species-rich plant community to show how the current spatial aggregation of a population may hold information about recent population dynamics. Previous research has shown how locally restricted seed dispersal often leads to stronger aggregation in less abundant populations than it does in more abundant populations. In contrast, little is known about how changes in the local abundance of a species may affect the spatial distribution of individuals. If the level of aggregation within a species depends to some extent on the abundance of the species, then changes in abundance should lead to subsequent changes in aggregation. However, an overall change of spatial pattern relies on many individual birth and death events, and a surplus of deaths or births may have short-term effects on aggregation that are opposite to the long-term change predicted by the change in abundance. The change in aggregation may therefore lag behind the change in abundance, and consequently, the current aggregation may hold information about recent population dynamics. Using an individual-based simulation model with local dispersal and density-dependent competition, we show that, on average, recently growing populations should be more aggregated than shrinking populations of the same current local abundance. We tested this hypothesis using spatial data on individuals from a long-term tropical rain forest plot, and find support for this relationship in canopy trees, but not in understory and shrub species. On this basis we argue that current spatial aggregation is an important characteristic that contains information on recent changes in local abundance, and may be applied to taxonomic groups where dispersal is limited and within-species aggregation is observed.     

Predicting how defaunation-induced changes in seed predation and dispersal will affect tropical tree populations

The loss of large animals due to overhunting and habitat loss potentially affects tropical tree populations and carbon cycling. Trees reliant on large-bodied seed dispersers are thought to be particularly negatively affected by defaunation. But besides seed dispersal, defaunation can also increase or decrease seed predation. It remains unclear how these different defaunation effects on early life stages ultimately affect tree population dynamics. We reviewed the literature on how tropical animal loss affects different plant life stages, and we conducted a meta-analysis of how defaunation affects seed predation. We used this information to parameterize models that altered matrix projection models from a suite of tree species to simulate defaunation-caused changes in seed dispersal and predation. We assessed how applying these defaunation effects affected population growth rates. On average, population-level effects of defaunation were negligible, suggesting that defaunation may not cause the massive reductions in forest carbon storage that have been predicted. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we did not detect an effect of seed size on changes in seed predation rates. The change in seed predation did not differ significantly between exclosure experiments and observational studies, although the results of observational studies were far more variable. Although defaunation surely affects certain tree taxa, species that benefit or are harmed by it and net changes in forest carbon storage cannot currently be predicted based on available data. Further research on how factors such as seed predation vary across tree species and defaunation scenarios is necessary for understanding cascading changes in species composition and diversity.     

Vertebrate herbivory impacts seedling recruitment more than niche partitioning or density-dependent mortality

In tropical forests, resource-based niches and density-dependent mortality are mutually compatible mechanisms that can act simultaneously to limit seedling populations. Differences in the strengths of these mechanisms will determine their roles in maintaining species coexistence. In the first assessment of these mechanisms in a Congo Basin forest, we quantified their relative strengths and tested the extent to which density-dependent mortality is driven by the distance-dependent behavior of seed and seedling predators predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. We conducted a large-scale seed addition experiment for five randomly selected tropical tree species, caging a subset of seed addition quadrats against vertebrate predators. We then developed models to assess the mechanisms that determine seedling emergence (three months after seed addition) and survival (two years after seed addition). As predicted, both niche differentiation and density-dependent mortality limited seedling recruitment, but predation had the strongest effects on seedling emergence and survival. Seedling species responded differently to naturally occurring environmental variation among sites, including variation in light levels and soil characteristics, supporting predictions of niche-based theories of tropical tree species coexistence. The addition of higher densities of seeds into quadrats initially led to greater seedling emergence, but survival to two years decreased with seed density. Seed and seedling predation reduced recruitment below levels maintained by density-dependent mortality, an indication that predators largely determine the population size of tree seedlings. Seedling recruitment was unrelated to the distance to or density of conspecific adult trees, suggesting that recruitment patterns are generated by generalist vertebrate herbivores rather than the specialized predators predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. If the role of seed and seedling predation in limiting seedling recruitment is a general phenomenon, then the relative abundances of tree species might largely depend on species-specific adaptations to avoid, survive, and recover from damage induced by vertebrate herbivores. Likewise, population declines of herbivorous vertebrate species (many of which are large and hunted) may trigger shifts in species composition of tropical forests.