Meta-analyses and mega-mistakes: calling time on meta-analysis of the species richness-productivity relationship

The form of the species richness-productivity relationship (SRPR) is both theoretically important and contentious. In an effort to distill general patterns, ecologists have undertaken meta-analyses, within which each SRPR data set is first classified into one of five alternative forms: positive, humped (unimodal), negative, U-shaped (unimodal), and no relationship. Herein, I first provide a critique of this approach, based on 68 plant data sets/ studies used in three meta-analyses published in Ecology. The meta-analyses are shown to have resulted in highly divergent outcomes, inconsistent and often highly inappropriate classification of data sets, and the introduction and multiplication of errors from one meta-analysis to the next. I therefore call on the ecological community at large to adopt a far more rigorous and critical attitude to the use of meta-analysis. Second, I develop the argument that the literature on the SRPR continues to be bedeviled by a common failing to appreciate the fundamental importance of the scale of analysis, beginning with the confusion evident between concepts of grain, focus, and extent. I postulate that variation in the form of the SRPR at fine scales of analysis owes much to artifacts of the sampling regime adopted. An improved understanding may emerge from combining sampling theory with an understanding of the factors controlling the form of species abundance distributions and species accumulation curves.     

A new technique for ordering asymmetrical three-dimensional data sets in ecology

The aim of this paper is to tackle the problem that arises from asymmetrical data cubes formed by two crossed factors fixed by the experimenter (factor A and factor B, e.g., sites and dates) and a factor which is not controlled for (the species). The entries of this cube are densities in species. We approach this kind of data by the comparison of patterns, that is to say by analyzing first the effect of factor B on the species-factor A pattern, and second the effect of factor A on the species-factor B pattern. The analysis of patterns instead of individual responses requires a correspondence analysis. We use a method we call Foucart's correspondence analysis to coordinate the correspondence analyses of several independent matrices of species x factor A (respectively B) type, corresponding to each modality of factor B (respectively A). Such coordination makes it possible to evaluate the effect of factor B (respectively A) on the species-factor A (respectively B) pattern. The results obtained by such a procedure are much more insightful than those resulting from a classical single correspondence analysis applied to the global matrix that is obtained by simply unrolling the data cube, juxtaposing for example the individual species x factor A matrices through modalities of factor B. This is because a single global correspondence analysis combines three effects of factors in a way that cannot be determined from factorial maps (factor A, factor B, and factor A x factor B interaction) whereas the applications of Foucart's correspondence analysis clearly discriminate two different issues. Using two data sets, we illustrate that this technique proves to be particularly powerful in the analyses of ecological convergence which include several distinct data sets and in the analyses of spatiotemporal variations of species distributions.     

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land‐use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate‐change mitigation

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land‐use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate‐change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate‐change impacts; however, these policies will influence land‐use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land‐use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land‐use changes (1500–2005) based on the global gridded land‐use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land‐use changes under alternative climate‐change scenarios (2005–2100). Future land‐use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26‐58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land‐use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate‐change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species–area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land‐use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land‐use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land‐use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.     

Application of analytical hierarchy process and geographic information systems in land-use suitability evaluation: a case study of Dümrek village (Çanakkale,Turkey)

This study used both analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information systems (GIS) to make a land-use suitability analysis for the village of Dümrek, NW Turkey. Primarily, alternative land uses for agriculture, meadow–pasture and forest were determined along with criteria for these alternatives and a hierarchical structure was produced and used to determine the weights of the criteria. Spatial data were identified by means of GIS and calculations were made using the suitability values specified and weights obtained from AHP. Suitability maps were then produced for the above land use alternatives. Subsequently, a synthesized suitability map was formed from these maps. According to the weights specified by AHP, the order of land use preferences among the alternatives for rural development of Dümrek was agriculture, forest and meadow. The synthesized suitability map showed that the areas allocated for forest and agriculture were close to the present ratios of use; however, meadow land, which does not exist at present, should be allocated as a land use to constitute 12.5% of the study area. Achieving sustainability in land use is possible by planners and administrators considering results obtained from land suitability mapping studies at the stage of allocating land uses. The method applied in this research is considered useful when taking policy decisions covering the evaluation of rural land use, particularly for subunits of the state administration.     

Ecological effects associated with land-use change in China's southwest agricultural landscape

Research on land-use and land-cover change, with associated effects on the ecoenvironment, is a key to understanding global change. The concept of 'ecosystem services' is also a hot issue in ecology and ecological economics. In this study, ecosystem service values are used to assess the ecological values of corresponding land-use types, so as to evaluate the ecological effects of regional land-use change. China's southwest agricultural landscape has unique ecological functions; but it also belongs to an ecologically fragile zone. Consequently, land-use change and associated ecological effects must be monitored to assure sustainable development of this area. Based on TM images in 1988, 1994 and 1999, the landscape classification maps of Yongsheng County were assessed using supervised classification and interactive modification methods. The transition matrix of land-use types and three indices of spatial patterns, patch-level, class-level and landscape-level indices, were calculated using models and GIS to examine the spatial patterns and dynamics of land use in the study area. The results show the influences of human activities and natural environmental elements, and that unused land has decreased rapidly, together with a continuous increase in forest during the past 11 years. There are also frequent intermediate transitions between farmland and unused land. An index for landscape diversity shows a tendency to increase, indicating that the proportions of each landscape element tended to average. Also, the decrease in the fractal dimension of unused land reveals that the effects of human activity are increasing. Ecological value calculations show that land-use change in Yongsheng County from 1988–1999 has resulted in positive ecological effects, with distinct spatial differences.     

Prioritizing forest management actions to benefit marine habitats in data-poor regions

Land-use change is considered one of the greatest human threats to marine ecosystems globally. Given limited resources for conservation, we adapted and scaled up a spatially explicit, linked land–sea decision support tool using open access global geospatial data sets and software to inform the prioritization of future forest management interventions that can have the greatest benefit on marine conservation in Vanuatu. We leveraged and compared outputs from two global marine habitat maps to prioritize land areas for forest conservation and restoration that can maximize sediment retention, water quality, and healthy coastal/marine ecosystems. By combining the outputs obtained from both marine habitat maps, we incorporated elements unique to each and provided higher confidence in our prioritization results. Regardless of marine habitat data source, prioritized areas were mostly located in watersheds on the windward side of the large high islands, exposed to higher tropical rainfall, upstream from large sections of coral reef and seagrass habitats, and thus vulnerable to human-driven land use change. Forest protection and restoration in these areas will serve to maintain clean water and healthy, productive habitats through sediment retention, supporting the wellbeing of neighboring communities. The nationwide application of this linked land–sea tool can help managers prioritize watershed-based management actions based on quantitative synergies and trade-offs across terrestrial and marine ecosystems in data-poor regions. The framework developed here will guide the implementation of ridge-to-reef management across the Pacific region and beyond.     

洞庭湖区不同土地利用方式对土壤酶活性的影响

对洞庭湖区不同土地利用方式下与主要营养元素循环相关的关键土壤酶(蔗糖酶、脲酶、碱性磷酸酶、过氧化氢酶)进行分析研究,结果表明,在0-30 cm土层,土地利用方式对4种酶活性的影响极其显著,且随土层深度的增加,土壤酶活性受土地利用方式的影响逐渐减小.碱性磷酸酶、蔗糖酶与脲酶在整个土壤刮面中受到土地利用方式的影响都较大,而过氧化氢酶对土地利用方式的响应只限于0-30 cm土层.不同土地利用方式下土壤蔗糖酶、脲酶和碱性磷酸酶活性均随土层深度的增加呈下降趋势,表明土壤有机质的分解、土壤营养元素的循环与土壤剖面结构息息相关.     

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.     

Comprehensive evaluation of heavy metal contamination of sediment in Lake Dianchi by using modified AHP method and Cs dating

Through the use of general sampling and measurement by ¹³⁷ Cs dating, problems regarding the absence of monitoring data can easily be resolved. Further, weighted values need to be determined while Environment Quality Comprehensive Index (EQCI) is commonly used as applied in environmental quality comprehensive evaluation. In order to overcome the subjectivity in determining weights, the modified Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was designed. The modified AHP method involved the following key procedures: First, the parameters y_i1 and y_i2 were calculated based on the monitoring data; second, the factors were put in order according to the symbol and value of y_i1 and y_i2; third, the continuous odd integers, which represented the importance of factors, were given to factors according to their seating order; and, fourth, the factor weights were determined from the pair-wise comparison matrix calculated by the ratio of the given odd integers. Therefore, the weights were completely based on the monitoring data. In the present study, the comprehensive quality of sediments in five sections of Lake Dianchi were evaluated and the results indicated that the current contamination of sediments in each lake section is much more serious than at any other time in history.     

A Matrix‐Calibrated Species‐Area Model for Predicting Biodiversity Losses Due to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: Application of island biogeography theory to prediction of species extinctions resulting from habitat loss is based on the assumption that the transformed landscape matrix is completely inhospitable to the taxa considered, despite evidence demonstrating the nontrivial influence of matrix on populations within habitat remnants. The island biogeography paradigm therefore needs refining to account for specific responses of taxa to the area of habitat “islands” and to the quality of the surrounding matrix. We incorporated matrix effects into island theory by partitioning the slope (z value) of species–area relationships into two components: γ, a constant, and σ, a measure of taxon‐specific responses to each component of a heterogeneous matrix. We used our matrix‐calibrated model to predict extinction and endangerment of bird species resulting from land‐use change in 20 biodiversity hotspots and compared these predictions with observed numbers of extinct and threatened bird species. We repeated this analysis with the conventional species–area model and the countryside species–area model, considering alternative z values of 0.35 (island) or 0.22 (continental). We evaluated the relative strength of support for each of the five candidate models with Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The matrix‐calibrated model had the highest AIC weight (w_i = 89.21%), which means the weight of evidence in support of this model was the optimal model given the set of candidate models and the data. In addition to being a valuable heuristic tool for assessing extinction risk, our matrix‐calibrated model also allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity benefits (and trade‐offs) of land‐management options in human‐dominated landscapes. Given that processes of secondary regeneration have become more widespread across tropical regions and are predicted to increase, our matrix‐calibrated model will be increasingly appropriate for practical conservation in tropical landscapes.     

Assessing Risks to Biodiversity from Future Landscape Change

We examined the impacts of possible future land development patterns on the biodiversity of a landscape. Our landscape data included a remote sensing derived map of the current habitat of the study area and six maps of future habitat distributions resulting from different land development scenarios. Our species data included lists of all bird, mammal, reptile, and amphibian species in the study area, their habitat associations, and area requirements for each. We estimated the area requirements using home ranges, sampled population densities, or genetic area requirements that incorporate dispersal distances. Our measures of biodiversity were species richness and habitat abundance. We calculated habitat abundance in two ways. First, we computed the total habitat area for each species in each landscape. Second, we calculated the number of habitat units for each species in each landscape by dividing the size of each habitat patch in the landscape by the area requirement and summing over all patches. Species richness was based on presence of habitat. Species became extinct in the landscape if they had no habitat area or no habitat units, respectively. We then computed ratios of habitat abundance in each future landscape to habitat abundance in the present for each species. We also computed the ratio of future to present species richness. We then calculated summary statistics across all species. Species richness changed little from present to future. There were distinctly greater risks to habitat abundance in landscapes that extrapolated from present trends or zoning patterns, however, as opposed to landscapes in which land development activities followed more constrained patterns. These results were stable when tested using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity tests on the area requirements. We conclude that this methodology can begin to discriminate the effects of potential changes in land development on vertebrate biodiversity.     

Modeling freshwater fish distributions using multiscale landscape data: A case study of six narrow range endemics

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become integral tools in scientific research and conservation planning. Despite progress in the assessment of various statistical models for use in SDMs, little has been done in way of evaluating appropriate ecological models. In this paper, we evaluate the multiscale filter framework as a suitable theoretical model for predicting freshwater fish distributions in the upper Green River system (Ohio River drainage), USA. The spatial distributions of six fishes with contrasting biogeographies were modeled using boosted regression trees and multiscale landscape data. Species biogeography did not appear to affect predictive performance and all models performed well statistically with receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.87 to 0.98. Predictive maps show accurate estimations of ranges for five of six species based on historical collections. The relative influence of each type of environmental feature and spatial scale varied markedly with between species. A hierarchical effect was detected for narrowly distributed species. These species were highly influenced by soil composition at larger spatial scales and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns at more proximal scales. Conversely, LULC pattern was the most influential feature for widely distributed at all spatial scales. Using multiscale data capable of capturing hierarchical landscape influences allowed production of accurate predictive models and provided further insight into factors controlling freshwater fish distributions.     

A Method for Assessing Hydrologic Alteration within Ecosystems

Hydrologic regimes play a major role in determining the biotic composition, structure, and function of aquatic, wetland, and riparian ecosystems. But human land and water uses are substantially altering hydrologic regimes around the world. Improved quantitative evaluations of human-induced hydrologic changes are needed to advance research on the biotic implications of hydrologic alteration and to support ecosystem management and restoration plans. We propose a method for assessing the degree of hydrologic alteration attributable to human influence within an ecosystem. This method, referred to as the "Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration," is based upon an analysis of hydrologic data available either from existing measurement points within an ecosystem (such as at stream gauges or wells) or model-generated data. We use 32 parameters, organized into five groups, to statistically characterize hydrologic variation within each year. These 32 parameters provide information on ecologically significant features of surface and ground water regimes influencing aquatic, wetland, and riparian ecosystems. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations associated with activities such as dam operations, flow diversion, groundwater pumping, or intensive land-use conversion by comparing measures of central tendency and dispersion for each parameter between user-defined "pre-impact" and "post-impact" time frames, generating 64 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. This method is intended for use with other ecosystem metrics in inventories of ecosystem integrity, in planning ecosystem management activities, and in setting and measuring progress toward conservation or restoration goals.     

Factors Affecting Population Assessments of Desert Tortoises

Abstract: Desert tortoises have been a subject of controversy since their listing as threatened in 1990. With a wide geographic range and more living individuals than any other listed land animal, biologists have needed to detect population trends against a "noisy" background of strong annual changes. We obtained annual population estimates of desert tortoises over 6 consecutive years at a 2.59-km² plot in Joshua Tree National Park, California. Our estimates, based on weekly spring surveys, varied substantially, particularly between wet and dry years. Concurrently, we followed 10 radiotagged animals for 3 years to corroborate the surveys. Population density was determined separately for each year and for all years combined. Our best population estimate was an average of 67 adult tortoises, three times more than the density reported in a 1978 survey of the same site. Annual mortality was low ( <10%), and the animals showed extreme site fidelity. Apparent changes in population size were most strongly related to the animals' varying susceptibility to capture. In dry years, home ranges decreased, captures decreased, and effort required to find each tortoise nearly doubled. Our data confirm that tortoises are likely to be undercounted during dry years and call into question earlier studies conducted during droughts.     

扎鲁特旗土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

利用 1988年和 1997年的TM影像数据 (覆盖范围主要包括扎鲁特旗行政辖区的中部低山丘陵区和南部倾斜冲积平原区的 2 0个苏木 ) ,通过计算扎鲁特旗 1988年至 1997年间土地利用转移矩阵 ,分析了该区域近 10a来土地利用 /覆盖的时空变化规律 ,并进而探究了导致该变化发生的自然、人文驱动因素。结果表明 :在 1988年至 1997年间 ,该区域林地和草地大面积减少 ,耕地大面积增加 ,土地沙化和盐碱化现象严重。探其原因主要是由社会、经济等人文因素造成 ,而包括气候波动在内的自然条件只是土地利用变化的背景条件     

基于多维特征优选支持向量机算法的城市土地利用变化遥感监测

随着遥感影像时、空、谱、辐分辨率和数据处理能力的提升,综合多维影像特征已成为提高土地利用分类精度的关键.目前并非所有特征均有助于分类,且传统分类仍拘泥于单一特征,因此,急需有效的特征优化选择方法.基于光谱指数、穗帽变换、最小噪声分离、高斯滤波、灰度共生矩阵等变换提取了Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI影像的31维特...     

Evaluation of the sustainable land use status of the North China Plain

The North China Plain is one of the most important production areas for wheat and maize in China, and also has the densest agricultural population in China. How to use and develop the limited land resources reasonably, and improve and protect them, have become issues of major concern. This paper is based on sustainability theory, reviewing the fundamental principles of sustainability, and developing an index system with which to evaluate the sustainability status of land use. We also use this method to evaluate the land-use status of the North China Plain and to analyze current factors affecting sustainable land use in this area. In addition, we propose a specific method for evaluating sustainable land use.     

Coexistence between People and Elephants in African Savannas

Abstract: The decline in the range and numbers of elephants as a result of expanding human activity in Africa is recognized as one of the continent's more serious conservation problems. Understanding the relationship between human settlement patterns and elephant abundance is fundamental to predicting the viability of elephant populations. The prevailing model of human-elephant interaction predicts a negative linear relationship between rising human density and declining elephant density at a coarse (national or subcontinental) scale. Using observed elephant densities and human population data, we tested this prediction in a study area of 15,000 km² in northwestern Zimbabwe. The results did not fit a linear model. Elephant and human coexistence occurs at various levels of human density, up to a threshold of human density beyond which elephant populations disappear. This threshold seems to be related to a particular stage in the process of agriculturally transformed land becoming spatially dominant over the natural woodland that constitutes elephant habitat. Within the contexts of conservation and sustainable development in African savannas, investigating spatial relationships between elephant and human abundance should be a priority topic for future research.     

A Comparison of Landscapes Occupied by Increasing and Decreasing Populations of Grassland Birds

Abstract:  For several decades, many grassland bird species have been declining in abundance throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the United States, possibly due to loss of natural grassland habitat and increasing urbanization. I used 20 years of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to identify increasing, decreasing, and stable populations of 36 grassland-nesting bird species. I characterized the immediate landscape (circle with radius = 30 km) surrounding each population based on data from the National Resources Inventory. For each landscape, I calculated the proportion of eight different land-cover types: restored grassland, rangeland, cultivated cropland, pasture, noncultivated cropland, forest, urban land, and water. Using a null model, I compared landscape composition of increasing, decreasing, and stable populations. As predicted on the basis of the habitat preferences of grassland birds, increasing populations inhabited landscapes that contained significantly more restored grassland and rangeland but significantly less forest land and urban land than landscapes inhabited by decreasing populations. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cropland within the landscapes of increasing and decreasing populations, although cropland composed a large proportion (>30%) of many landscapes. In contrast, restored grassland typically composed a very small proportion (<3.5%) of total land cover, yet it was significantly more common in the landscapes of increasing than decreasing populations. These results suggest that grassland birds may benefit from government initiatives, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, that promote the restoration of grassland at a landscape scale.     

快速城市化地区塘的消减过程研究--以广州市天河区为例

塘是我国南方地区常见的、分布广泛的景观类型,也是相对独立的水生生态系统,在生态系统服务和人类经济文化活动中扮演着非常重要的角色。国际学者对其在保护生物多样性、防涝排水、提升景观及改善人居环境等方面的生态功能研究较多,但国内对塘的形成、消减过程、生态环境功能效应等科学问题一直认识不足,在人口和土地的快速城市化胁迫下,为了增加建设用地使用面积而将水塘填埋的行为广泛存在。文章以广州市天河区为研究区,以1996、2000、2004、2007、2011年5期遥感影像为数据,通过目视解译获取研究区的土地利用特征,提取水塘信息,依据塘的主要功能对塘进行分类,通过缓冲区分析、主成份分析和转移矩阵分析探索快速城市化地区水塘消减过程的数量和空间分布特征。结果表明：（1）研究区内水塘景观在15 a间显著消减,数量由109个减至20个,面积由36.30 hm2降至13.18 hm2,个体减少率为81.65%,面积减少率为63.69%;（2）不同时段、不同功能类型的水塘消减过程存在明显差异,养殖塘、风水塘、山塘和灌溉塘面积急剧减少,景观塘面积先降后增;（3）各时段的塘转换主要去向为居住用地、商业及工矿用地等,周边土地利用格局有交通用地、荒草地的塘更易于被转换成建设用地等其他土地利用类型;（4）在城市人居环境建设中,水塘具有保持生物多样性、调节气温、改善气候、防旱排涝、改善人居环境等生态价值,又具有历史文化、景观美化等人文价值,但水塘已成为快速城市化地区居住、商业、工矿用地的主要侵占对象。作为冷岛的水塘生态系统,在城市化进程和各项规划中都应受到重视与保护。