代际公平原则与可持续土地利用规划--南京市的实例研究

本文首先阐述代际公平优先原则的可持续土地利用规划思路；接着通过设计满足代际公平基本要求的五种规划方案与构建可持续土地利用规划三效益最大化的目标函数相结合的方法进行南京市可持续土地利用规划方案的设计；然后应用多目标线性划模型优化南京市的规划方案；最后对规划方案的效益与公平进行评价，从规划方案规划的结果来看，规划方案基本达到了规划方案设计的要求。     

代际公平原则下的农用地社会价值评估

现行农用地价值评估中社会价值偏低,只考虑当代人的价值,对农地资源的代际补偿不足,未全面估算农民失去土地的损失.本文对农用地社会价值的内容进行7分析,阐述了代际公平原则的具体内涵及其相应的实现途径,即通过主动的代际补偿方式对农用地社会价值进行充分、全面地体现,并提出了在实践上可具操作性的基于代际公平原则的农用地社会价值的核算方法.根据上述提出的核算方法,本文以四川省乐至县为例,具体核算出基于代际公平原则下的乐至县农用地的社会价值.研究结果表明,代际公平原则下的乐至县农用地社会价值与不通过代际公平原则下的农用地社会价值相比较,前者为后者的8.352倍.因此,通过代际公平核算的方式能够充分体现农用地的社会价值,从而达到农地资源代际共享与均衡发展.笔者认为在农地评估工作中可尝试运用代际补偿原则,这有利于在可持续发展观的基础上形成农用地社会价值的正确认识,并最终全面实现农用地的社会价值.     

再生自然资源代际可持续利用的经济分析与制度安排--以渔业资源为例

自然资源由于其较强的公共性和外部性而使其因代际问题所导致的私有市场失灵比一般的产品严重,原因是自然资源代际利用中当代人都倾向于最大限度使用资源,从而引发自然资源“公地悲剧”问题比一般产品严重。再生自然资源虽然在代际利用中的利益冲突比非再生自然资源低,但代际问题所带来的市场失灵依然存在。因此,再生自然资源的代际可持续利用需要政府依据其经济特性进行一定的规制,制订出合理的使用制度。以渔业资源为例,在沙发尔（Schaefer）模型的基础上,利用成本——效益的经济学分析法,分析了再生自然资源代际可持续利用中的成本与收益,提出再生自然资源代际可持续使用的制度安排和优化措施,包括边际成本动态规制、明确界分所有权、实施可交易配额和公共补偿性规制。     

基于“可持续性”要素的比较优势理论拓展

比较优势是不同国家生产同种产品的机会成本差异。传统理论认为,形成比较优势的机会成本主要为生产成本,而"可持续性"是一种代际公共品,耗费"可持续性"要素的机会成本是代际成本,即现在使用某(些)要素所放弃的未来使用之可能带来的纯收益。因此,不同国家的可持续性差异体现为代际成本差异,"可持续性"是塑造一国比较优势的新要素。若中国对外贸易过度依靠当代所具有的劳动力价格低廉和环境规制政策宽松所塑造的劳动力比较优势和环境比较优势,从长期看是不可持续的。通过代际成本内在化,可逐步实现对外贸易发展的短期理性与长期理性的统一。进而言之,中国需要妥善处理贸易增长与各种稀缺要素消耗之间的关系,平衡贸易增长与可持续发展的关系,当今的贸易与未来的贸易需寻求某种总量和结构上的均衡。     

中国城乡居民的代际收入流动及分解

利用双样本两阶段最小二乘法(TS2SLS),本文对中国城乡居民的代际收入流动性进行了经验分析,并进一步考察了城乡居民代际收入传递的路径。研究结果表明:①现阶段,中国居民的代际收入流动性较差,存在较明显的收入代际传递现象,城镇居民的代际收入弹性高于农村居民的代际收入弹性;②处于收入分配两端的城乡居民的代际收入流动较为封闭;③通过对代际收入弹性的分解发现,父辈与子辈间的代际职业传递以及代际教育传递是中国居民代际收入传递的主要途径。本文的政策含义在于,为了防止贫困的代际传递,促进社会公平,维护社会稳定,政府应大力发展教育,在教育资源的配置上向农村地区、落后地区、贫困群体以及弱势群体倾斜,同时要加快建立城乡统一的劳动力市场,消除就业市场上的信息不对称和市场分割,创造平等的就业机会。     

社会资本对农村贫困代际传递影响机制研究

社会资本在反贫困领域的重要作用已被理论和实践所证实。在新时代脱贫攻坚的决胜阶段,有效发挥社会资本的周急济贫功能,缓解乃至阻断贫困代际传递,已成为当前反贫困战略推进中亟待探讨的问题。研究整合了四期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS 2010、2012、2014、2016)个体家庭和村庄的嵌套数据,建立了“认知型”和“结构型”两种类型以及“个体家庭”和“村庄”两个层级的社会资本框架,并基于探索性因子分析构建了社会网络、社会信任、社会声望、社会参与、集体参与以及公共服务6个社会资本变量。研究利用HLM软件构建了多层广义线性模型(HGLM),通过四阶段的空模型、截距模型、随机效应模型以及完整模型分析了绝对贫困背景下社会资本对农村贫困代际传递的影响机制。研究结果表明:①个体社会资本总量与贫困代际传递呈显著负相关。②在个体家庭层面,社会网络、社会声望、社会参与对贫困代际传递有显著负向影响,但社会信任和地方信任对贫困代际传递的影响并不显著。③在村庄层面,公共服务对贫困代际传递具有显著负向影响,集体参与对贫困代际传递具有显著正向影响,且公共服务水平对社会网络和贫困代际传递具有正向调节作用。研究提出要大力培植贫困群体和乡村两个层级的社会资本以缓解农村贫困代际传递趋势:①要通过协调“乡政”与“村治”以形成良性的乡村治理格局。②要促进精准扶贫与乡村振兴战略紧密衔接,在保障个体脱贫的同时完善农村公共服务及基础设施建设,推进城乡基本公共服务均等化;③须提振贫困群体脱贫信心,增强村级自治与集体参与的水平和能力。     

资源税改革中的经济行为和政府决策分析

资源是人类社会赖以存在的物质基础,也是社会经济发展的前提和必要条件,随着我国经济的快速发展,资源逐渐成为制约经济发展的"瓶颈",如何有效配置资源成为当前我国社会发展和经济转型的重要议题.国外经验证明可以通过资源税杠杆有效调节代际内和代际间的资源配置,提高资源使用效率.经济主体的行为和政府决策直接影响资源税改革的进程,本文构建世代交叠模型,通过资源税改革前后生产者和消费者的效用函数,分析并比较经济系统中主体不同济行为变化,在此基础上以资本和劳动动态变化来探讨资源税改革后的经济稳定性,并通过存在风险和政府声誉约束条件下的政府效用函数,分析和研究资源税改革中影响政府决策行为的主要因素,研究表明:资源税改革会对生产、消费产生影响,使经济主体的行为发生相应变化,但适当的资源税政策将保证经济稳定增长;同时改革成本、改革对产出的影响程度、政府风险态度和政府声誉等将影响政府决策行为,最后针对以上影响因素本文提出相应政策建议.     

农地非农化代际配置与农地资源损失

合理的资源利用要求资源配置在代际上是有效率的。在资源代际最优配置原理的基础上,建立了一个衡量农地非农化是否符合代际配置效率的宏观决策模型,对我国20世纪90年代以来的农地非农化进行了检验。结果显示,若以1989-2003年为研究区间,1989-1996年阶段东、中、西部地区的过度非农化比例分别占各自实际非农化数量的6.58%、6.84%和7.85%,反映出1989-1996年期间的农地非农化存在一定的短期行为,造成农地的过度非农化。因此,未来一段时间的农地非农化政策应该进一步控制农地非农化的速度,来保证农地资源能够在未来得到更优的利用。     

代际利他下资源分配的经济学分析

从分析可持续发展的内在要求与经济人假设之间的冲突出发，构建了利他状态下的资源代际分配效用函数。通过对非凸状偏好及利他的心理价格变化下消费均衡解的比较静态分析，作者指出。在后代人缺位情况下可以利用宏观和微观因素对当代人的利他度加以影响。实现利他的资源代际分配模式，从而在理论意义和实践意义上拓展了可持续发展理论。     

可持续发展决策和评价中的代际公平问题研究

可持续发展决策和评价面临一个复杂的影响许多代的长期代际平等问题。然而，传统的处理代内公平的方法，由于基于的时间尺度是相对于后代偏向当代的静止原理，所以在处理代际公平问题时是不合适，或无能为力的。相反，通过结合以未来为导向的爱罗原则体系与改进的社会选择理论和多标准决策方法，就可以排除所有不能在多代人所接受的水平上具有稳定状态的行为，从而建立起合理的、可操作的代际公平决策方法学     

From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: recent developments and applications

Environmental risk assessment and decision-making strategies over the last several decades have become increasingly more sophisticated, information-intensive, and complex, including such approaches as expert judgment, cost-benefit analysis, and toxicological risk assessment. One tool that has been used to support environmental decision-making is comparative risk assessment (CRA), but CRA lacks a structured method for arriving at an optimal project alternative. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides better-supported techniques for the comparison of project alternatives based on decision matrices, and it also provides structured methods for the incorporation of project stakeholders' opinions in the ranking of alternatives. We argue that the inherent uncertainty in our ability to predict ecosystem evolution and response to different management policies requires shifting from optimization-based management to an adaptive management paradigm. This paper brings together a multidisciplinary review of existing decision-making approaches at regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe and synthesizes state-of-the-art research in CRA, MCDA, and adaptive management methods applicable to environmental remediation and restoration projects. We propose a basic decision analytic framework that couples MCDA with adaptive management and its public participation and stakeholder value elicitation methods, and we demonstrate application of the framework to a realistic case study based on contaminated sediment management issues in the New York/New Jersey Harbor.     

Development of Future Generations： Oriented Virtual Negotiation Support System for Intergenerational Conflict

Intergenerational conflict coordination is the fundamental requirement and core of sustainable development. In this paper, through the analysis of the future generations-oriented management mechanisms for intergenerational conflict, the idea of mechanisms and institution building for the coordination and management of intergenerational conflict is put forward. Furthermore, the future generations-oriented virtual negotiation support system （NSS） for intergenerational conflict is developed, built on the analysis of the process simulation of intergenerational wealth transfer, intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, and strategies for the mitigation and avoidance of intergenerational conflict, through the application of advanced IT technology. The virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict is helpful to the practical application of the sustainable development theory; on the other hand, it can be applied directly to the intergenerational equilibrium allocation of resources, national economic accounting, formulation of sustainable development strategies and other urgent national economic and social development issues. Finally, the sustainable development theory can be enriched and extended. Therefore, the development of the future generations-oriented virtual NSS for intergenerational conflict has certain theoretical and practical effects on the theory of sustainable development.     

Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choice.     

江苏省秸秆类农业生物质能源分布及其利用的效益

分析了江苏省秸秆类农业生物质能源在不同作物及地区间的分布状况，并选择3个典型的秸秆发电项目作为案例，采用成本 收益分析、货币价值折算及CDM（清洁发展机制）项目分析等方法，重点研究了江苏省生物质能源利用的经济、资源和环境效益。研究结果表明：江苏省秸秆资源以粮食作物为主，约占918%，全省秸秆资源呈由北向南逐渐递减的阶梯式分布；目前的秸秆发电企业处于亏损状态，最主要的制约因素是秸秆发电等生物质能源产业的资源环境外部性得不到应有的补偿；与燃煤发电相比，秸秆发电节省原煤的同时减少了大量的污染排放，如果其资源环境效益的货币价值得以实现，不仅可以补偿企业的经济亏损，还可为企业带来可观收益；另外，CDM项目为生物质能源产业实现其资源环境价值提供了有效的途径     

China''''s CDM Policies and Their Development Implications:Major Concerns for CDM Implementation

Most CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) opportunities exist in some large industrializing developing countries. For instance, China is estimated to take 48% of the world potential for CDM project activities. In reality, however, the share by China over the CDM projects registered and CDM projects in the pipeline is less than 10% as of Auguest 2005. This paper will examine the reasons behind, as reflected in China's CDM policies. Further investigation will be made into the use of these policies to boost the country's sustainable development, the sustainable development implications and effects of these policies. In addition, it is noted that incompatibility of some other Chinese laws and policies can be responsible for the low level and slow pace of CDM implementation in China and some suggestions are offered for promoting CDM project activities in China. There also exist barriers at the international level that impedes implementation of CDM project activities. A conclusion is drawn that CDM policies in a developing country like China aim mainly at promotion of sustainable development and to a lesser extent the generation of CERs.     

Whither the CDM? Investment outcomes and future prospects

Following an abrupt fall in carbon credit prices, 2012 has witnessed a disinterest on behalf of investors in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). In this paper, we aim to take a step back and provide an assessment of the CDM through a careful analysis of 6 instrument evaluation criteria. Our study indicates that, despite the important number of projects developed under the CDM, the initial ambition of a scheme that would contribute to sustainable development in developing countries has not materialised. Moreover, the environmental integrity of numerous projects is seriously questioned. Given the interaction of the mechanism with other national policies, notably in the renewable sector, the search of carbon reduction opportunities does not lead to cost-effective abatements. If the CDM governance does not score really well in terms of predictability, the mechanism’s transparency is an example for the development of future climate and development policies at a multilateral level. Finally, the lack of consideration for the demand side of the offset mechanism seriously jeopardises the persistence of this instrument. Therefore, we recommend that any CDM reform considers the demand side, for instance through the setting of a guaranteed minimum price coupled with an obligation of repurchase. One cannot expect progress in host countries if new sources of demand for carbon credits are not rapidly created in developed countries.     

农地整治项目投资分摊博弈机理研究——以政府和企业为例

投资主体、建设主体与受益主体不一致是导致我国农地整治项目效率偏低的根本原因,公私合作(PPP)模式是从制度层面提升我国农地整治项目效率的理想模式。本文首先界定了农地整治项目PPP模式,分析了PPP模式下农地整治项目的运行机制及其博弈关系,建立了农地整治项目投资的成本收益函数;然后以政府与农业产业化企业间的博弈为例,在探讨他们博弈要素的基础上构建了投资博弈模型,提出了二者理想的投资决策边界;最后用一个典型案例论证了本文的分析结果。研究结果表明,新增耕地面积和项目建设成本是影响农地整治项目效益发挥的主要因素。农地整治项目PPP模式顺利实施的条件是:当项目政府补贴较低时,企业投入高建设成本得到的支付不低于其保留支付。项目高效运行的条件是:当项目政府补贴较高时,企业投入低建设成本得到的支付不高于其保留支付;与投入低建设成本相比,企业选择高建设成本得到农地经营收益的增加值不小于其增加的成本值。