Overestimation of urban nitrogen dioxide by passive diffusion tubes: a comparative exposure and model study

A detailed comparative trial of passive diffusion tubes (PDT) for measurement of NO₂ in urban air has been undertaken in Edinburgh, UK. Acrylic, foil-wrapped and quartz tubes were exposed in parallel for 1-week and 4-week periods at three urban sites equipped with continuous analysers for NO, NO_x and O₃. Standard acrylic PDTs significantly overestimated NO₂ concentrations relative to chemiluminescence analysers, by an average of 27% over all sites for 1-week exposures. No significant difference was observed between standard and foil-wrapped acrylic tubes (both UV blocking). The mean ratio between quartz (UV transmitting) tubes and chemiluminescence analysers was 1.06. Quartz PDT data suggest a tendency for in situ photolysis to offset (but in a non-quantifiable way) the effect of chemical overestimation. The 4-week exposures yielded systematically lower NO₂ concentration than average NO₂ from four sequential 1-week exposures over the same period. The reduction in the apparent NO₂ sampling rate with time mostlikely arises from in situ photolysis of trapped NO₂. Hourly NO₂, NO and O₃ data for 20 1-week exposures were used as input to a numerical model of diffusion tube operation incorporating chemical reaction between co-diffusing NO and O₃ within the tube. The mean calculated overestimation of 22% for NO₂ from the PDT model simulations is close to the average difference between acrylic PDT and analyser NO₂ concentrations (24% for the same exposure periods), showing that within-tube chemistry can account for observed discrepancies in NO₂ measurement between the two techniques. Overestimation by PDT generally increased as average NO₂/NO_x ratios decreased. Accurate quantitative correction of PDT measurements is not possible. Nevertheless, PDT NO₂ concentrations were correlated with both analyser NO₂ and NO_x suggesting that acrylic PDTs retain a qualitative measure of NO₂ and NO_x variation at a particular urban location.     

Measurement of Ozone Concentrations in Ambient Air Using a Badge-Type Passive Monitor

Abstract

A badge-type passive monitor was used to evaluate the effectiveness of four ozone trapping reagents for measuring O₃ concentrations in the air. These were sodium nitrite (NaNO₂), 3-methyl-2-benzothiazolinone acetone azine (MBTH), p-acetamidophenol (p-ATP), and indigo carmine. Experiments in an exposure chamber showed that only NaNO₂ and MBTH monitors gave sensitive and linear responses over realistic ranges of O₃ concentrations. When tested in ambient air, NaNO₂ and MBTH monitors with a single-layer diffusion barrier overestimated O₃ concentrations by a significant amount. This was largely canceled out in the NaNO₂ monitor by using a multi-layered diffusion barrier to combat wind turbulence effects. However it had almost no effect on the MBTH monitor, and it was found that NO₂ was a source of serious interference. We concluded that using the NaNO₂ monitor with an effective diffusion barrier can measure O₃ in ambient air with an accuracy of ±16%.     

Validation of nitrogen dioxide diffusion tube methodology in the UK

Measurement of ambient NO₂ concentrations using diffusion tube samplers is widespread in many countries, particularly in the UK. A National Network of NO₂ diffusion tube samplers has been operational at over 1200 sites in the UK for over 5 years. Some previous studies have indicated that NO₂ diffusion tube samplers may overestimate NO₂ concentrations by up to 30%, whereas others have shown an underestimation. Hence, the UK Department of Environment, Transport and the Regions commissioned this large-scale validation study. In this study diffusion tubes were exposed at 17 urban background monitoring sites equipped with chemiluminescent NO₂ monitors within the UK Automatic Urban Monitoring Network. Over a one year period, diffusion tubes were exposed for 2- and 4-week periods, blacked out or clear and sheltered (from the wind) or unsheltered, in order to investigate the effect of a number of possible variables. The results of the study show that overall average NO₂ concentrations calculated from diffusion tube measurements are likely to be within 10% of chemiluminescent measurement data. The uncertainty on this average difference is ±24–38% for individual diffusion tube measurements, but reduces to ±10–18% for annual averages. Differences due to the exposure period and exposure procedure were found, but these were not large.     

NMOC,ozone, and organic aerosol in the southeastern United States, 1999–2007: 2. Ozone trends and sensitivity to NMOC emissions in Atlanta,Georgia

Non-methane organic carbon (NMOC) measurements made in Atlanta, Georgia from 1999–2007 are used with nitrogen oxide (NO_x or NO_y) and ozone (O₃) data to investigate relationships between O₃ precursors and peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in the city. Data from a WNW-to-ENE transect of sites illustrate that the mean urban peak 8-hour O₃ excess constitutes about 20% of the peak 8-hour O₃ measured at the area-wide maximum O₃ site when air-mass movement is from the northwest quadrant; local influence is potentially greater on days with more stagnation or recirculation. The peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations in Atlanta increase as (1) surface temperature (T), ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, and previous-day peak O₃ concentrations increase, and as (2) relative humidity, surface wind speeds, and ratios of NMOC-to-NO_y decrease. An observation-based statistical model is introduced to relate area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations to ambient NMOC and NO_y concentrations, while accounting for the non-linear dependences of peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations on meteorological factors. On the majority of days when the area-wide peak 8-hour O₃ exceeds 75 ppbv, meteorologically-adjusted peak 8-hour O₃ concentrations increase as ambient NMOC concentrations increase (NMOC sensitive) and ambient NO_y concentrations decrease. This result contrasts with regional conditions in which O₃ formation appears to be NO_x-sensitive in character. The results offer observationally-based information of relevance to O₃ management strategies in the Atlanta area, potentially contributing to “weight-of-evidence” assessments.     

Continuous measurement of gaseous pollutants in Buenos Aires city

Data on CO, NO, NO₂ and O₃ concentrations measured in Buenos Aires city using a continuous monitoring station are reported. This is the first systematic study of this kind carried out in the city, which is, together with its surroundings, the third more populated in Latin America. Measurements were performed during 12 months in one of the principal avenues near downtown. Results indicate that vehicular traffic is the principal source of CO and NO_x. The concentration of O₃ is generally quite low and results from the mixing of clean air masses with exhaust gases containing high amounts of NO. The monthly averages of CO and NO decrease from Winter to Summer in correlation with the increase of the mean wind speed and average temperature. These results are compared with previous measurements on the spatial distribution of NO₂ in the whole city using passive diffusion tubes and with the concentration of CO, which is being continuously registered since several years in the downtown area. Measurements performed at a green, windy, low traffic area beneath the La Plata river are also shown.     

Evaluation of the CAR-FMI model against measurements near a major road

A field measurement campaign was conducted near a major road in southern Finland from September 15 to October 30, 1995. The concentrations of NO, NO₂ and O₃ were measured simultaneously at three locations, at three heights (3.5, 6 and 10 m) on both sides of the road. Traffic densities and relevant meteorological parameters were also measured on-site. We have compared measured concentration data with the predictions of the road network dispersion model CAR-FMI, used in combination with a meteorological pre-processing model MPP-FMI. In comparison with corresponding results presented previously in the literature, the agreement of measured and predicted datasets was good, as measured using various statistical parameters. For all data (N=587), the index of agreement (IA) was 0.83, 0.82 and 0.89 for the measurements of NO_x, NO₂ and O₃, respectively. The IA is a statistical measure of the correlation of the predicted and measured time series of concentrations. However, the modelling system overpredicts NO_x concentrations with a fractional bias FB=+13%, and O₃ concentrations with FB=+8%, while for NO₂ concentrations FB=−2%. We also analyzed the difference between model predictions and measured data in terms of meteorological parameters. Model performance clearly deteriorated as the wind direction approached a direction parallel to the road, and for the lowest wind speeds. The range of variability concerning atmospheric stability, ambient temperature and the amount of solar radiation was modest during the measurement campaign. As expected, no clear dependencies of model performance were therefore detected in terms of these parameters. The experimental dataset is available for the evaluation of other roadside dispersion models.     

In situ measurements of NO,NO2, NOy,and O3 in Dinghushan (112°E, 23°N), China during autumn 2008

Measurements of O₃, NO, NO₂, and NO_y mixing ratios were carried out at a station-Dinghushan in Guangdong province of China from Oct. 18th, 2008 to Nov. 7th, 2008. This research shows that under conditions of a strong subtropical high (temperature high, relative humidity low), on Oct. 29th, 2008 the Dinghushan station observed severe photochemical pollution. The Maximum hour average concentration of O₃ reached 128 ppbv, and the serious photochemical pollution is caused by superposition of local photochemical reaction and regional transport. The observation that NO_x ozone production efficiency (OPE) values for high O₃ pollution on Oct. 29–30th, 2008 were 10.5 and 15, which were more than the values of the city source region and lower than that of the surrounding clean areas. It means the sensitivity of O₃ generated was transitioning from VOCs limited condition to NOx-limited regime. By applying a Smog Production Model, the results show that the extent of reaction values less than 0.6 were occurred on 17 days during campaign, and 13 days for the extents of reactions more than 0.6. However, there were no data with values over 0.8, which indicates that the observation station represent a VOCs sensitive system during campaign. Analysis of the extents of reactions and wind data show that the pollution is mostly subject to a southeasterly airflow influence.     

Modeling reactive pollutant dispersion in an urban street canyon

Reactive pollutant dispersion in an urban street canyon with a street aspect ratio of one is numerically investigated using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The CFD model developed is a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) model with the renormalization group (RNG) k–ε turbulence model and includes transport equations for NO, NO₂, and O₃ with simple photochemistry. An area emission source of NO and NO₂ is considered in the presence of background O₃ and street bottom heating (ΔT=5 °C) with an ambient wind perpendicular to the along-canyon direction. A primary vortex is formed in the street canyon and the line connecting the centers of cross-sectional vortices meanders over time and in the canyon space. The cross-canyon-averaged temperature and reactive pollutant concentrations oscillate with a period of about 15 min. The averaged temperature is found to be in phase with NO and NO₂ concentrations but out of phase with O₃ concentration. The photostationary state defect is small in the street canyon except for near the roof level and the upper downwind region of the canyon and its local minimum is observed near the center of the primary vortex. The budget analysis of NO (NO₂) concentration shows that the magnitude of the advection or turbulent diffusion term is much larger (larger) than that of the chemical reaction term and that the advection term is largely balanced by the turbulent diffusion term. On the other hand, the budget analysis of O₃ concentration shows that the magnitude of the chemical reaction term is comparable to that of the advection or turbulent diffusion term. The inhomogeneous temperature distribution itself affects O₃ concentration to some extent due to the temperature-dependent photolysis rate and reaction rate constant.     

Nonmethane Organic Compound to Nitrogen Oxide Ratios and Organic Composition in Cities and Rural Areas

The observed ranges in nonmethane organic compound (NMOC) concentrations, NMOC composition and nitrogen oxides (NO_X) concentrations have been evaluated for urban and nonurban areas at ground level and aloft of the contiguous United States. The ranges in NMOC to NO_X ratios also are considered. The NMOC composition consistently shifts towards less reactive compounds, especially the alkanes, in air parcels over nonurban areas compared to the NMOC composition near ground level within urban areas. The values for the NMOC to NO_X ratios, 1.2 to 4.2, in air aloft over nonurban areas are lower than in air at ground level urban sites, ≥8, and much lower than in air at ground level nonurban sites, ≥20.

The layers of air aloft over a number of nonurban areas of the United States tend to accumulate NO_X emissions from the tall stacks of large fossil fuel power plants located at nonurban sites. During the night into the morning hours, the air aloft is isolated from any fresh NMOC emissions predominately coming from near surface sources. Conversely, during this extended period of restricted vertical mixing, air near the surface accumulates NMOC emissions while this air is isolated from the major NO_X sources emitting aloft. These differences in the distribution of NMOC and NO_X sources appear to account for the much larger NMOC to NO_X ratios reported near ground level compared to aloft over nonurban areas.

Two types of experimental results are consistent with these conclusions: (1) observed increases in surface rural NO_X concentrations during the morning hours during which the mixing depth increases to reach the altitude at which NO_X from the stacks of fossil fuel power plants is being transported downwind; (2) high correlations of total nitrate at rural locations with Se, which is a tracer for coal-fired power plant NO_X emissions.

The implications of these conclusions from the standpoint of air quality strategies are suggested by use of appropriate scenarios applied to both urban and regional scale photochemical air quality models. The predictions from urban model scenarios with NMOC to NO_X ratios up to 20 are that NO_X control will result in the need for the control of more NMOC emissions than necessary in the absence of NO_X control, in order to meet the O₃ standard. On a regional scale, control of NO_X emissions from fossil fuel power plants has little overall effect regionally but does result on a more local scale in both small decreases and increases in O₃ concentrations compared to the baseline scenario without NO_X control. The regional modeling results obtained to date suggest that NO_X control may be effective in reducing O₃ concentrations only for a very limited set of conditions in rural areas.     

Ozone Control Strategies Based on the Ratio of Volatile Organic Compounds to Nitrogen Oxides

The 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments require states with O₃ nonattainment areas to adopt regulations to enforce reasonable available control technologies (RACT) for NO_X stationary sources by November 1992. However, if the states can demonstrate that such measures will have an adverse effect on air quality, NO_X requirements may be waived. To assist the states in making this decision, the U.S. EPA is attempting to develop guidelines for the states to use in deciding whether NO_X reductions will have a positive or negative impact on O3 air quality. Although NO_X is a precursor of O₃, at low VOC/NO_X ratios, the reduction of NO_X can result in increased peak O₃. EPA is examining existing information on VOC/NO_X ratios to develop “rules of thumb” to guide the states in their decision-making process. An examination of 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. VOC/NO_X ratios at a number of sites in the eastern U.S. indicates that the ratio is highly variable from day-to-day and there is no apparent relationship between ratios measured at different sites within the same area. In addition, statistical analysis failed to identify significant relationships between the 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. VOC/NO_X ratio and the maximum 1-hr. O₃ within a given area. Since we know from smog chamber and modeling studies that such a relationship exists, this further invalidates the assumption that a ratio measured at a single site is representative of the ratio for the entire region. Based on this Information, we conclude that having the 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. ambient VOC/NO_X ratio for a given area is insufficient information, by itself, to decide whether a VOC-alone, a NO_x-alone, or a combined VOC-NO_X reduction strategy is a viable or optimum O₃-reduction strategy.     

Water soluble ions of atmospheric aerosols in three New Zealand cities: seasonal changes and sources

The results of one year's measurements (typically a two week sampling campaign in each season) of the concentrations of eight major water soluble ions, namely Na⁺, NH₄⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl⁻, NO₃⁻ and SO₄²⁻, in atmospheric aerosols collected in three New Zealand cities (Auckland, Christchurch and Hamilton) are presented. The data has provided important information on particulate soluble ion profiles in New Zealand urban areas and revealed some useful trends.A significant correlation has been found between the average meteorological conditions in a sampling campaign and the average particulate concentrations of some of these soluble ions in the campaign. For example, average particulate NO₃⁻ concentration in a campaign was found to correlate well with the average calm or weak wind duration percentage in the campaign, and the average concentrations of Na⁺, Mg²⁺ and Cl⁻ related closely to the average wind pattern and rainfall in the campaign.Significant site and seasonal variations have been observed with Hamilton having the lowest overall concentrations of all the soluble ions in the particles sampled. On average all sites had the highest particulate concentrations of Na⁺, Mg²⁺ and Cl⁻ in the summer but the highest particulate concentrations of NH₄⁺ and non-sea-salt Ca²⁺ (nss-Ca²⁺) in the winter. The possible sources of PM₁₀ mass have been deduced and in particular the relative contribution of sea salts to PM₁₀ mass in the cities are reported.     

Aircraft observations of aerosols,O3 and NOy in a nighttime urban plume

Nighttime measurements of aerosol surface area, O₃, NO_y and moisture were made downwind of Portland, Oregon, as part of a study to characterize the chemistry in a nocturnal urban plume. Air parcels sampled within the urban plume soon after sunset had positive correlations between O₃, relative humidity, NO_y and aerosol number density. However, the air parcels sampled within the urban plume just before dawn had O₃ mixing ratios that were highly anti-correlated with aerosol number density, NO_y and relative humidity. Back-trajectories from a mesoscale model show that both the post-sunset and pre-dawn parcels came from a common maritime source to the northwest of Portland. The pre-dawn parcels with strong anti-correlations passed directly over Portland in contrast to the other parcels that were found to pass west of Portland. Several gas-phase mechanisms and a heterogeneous mechanism involving the loss of O₃ to the aerosol surface, are examined to explain the observed depletion in O₃ within the pre-dawn parcels that had passed over Portland.     

Summertime photochemical ozone formation in Santiago,Chile

The city of Santiago, Chile experiences frequent high pollution episodes and as a consequence very high ozone concentrations, which are associated with health problems including increasing daily mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses. The development of ozone abatement strategies requires the determination of the potential of each pollutant to produce ozone, taking into account known mechanisms and chemical kinetics in addition to ambient atmospheric conditions. In this study, the photochemical formation of ozone during a summer campaign carried out from March 8–20, 2005 has been investigated using an urban photochemical box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1). The MCM box model has been constrained with 10 min averages of simultaneous measurements of HONO, HCHO, CO, NO, j(O¹D), j(NO₂), 31 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and meteorological parameters. The O₃–NO_x–VOC sensitivities have been determined by simulating ozone formation at different VOC and NO_x concentrations. Ozone sensitivity analyses showed that photochemical ozone formation is VOC-limited under average summertime conditions in Santiago. The results of the model simulations have been compared with a set of potential empirical indicator relationships including H₂O₂/HNO₃, HCHO/NO_y and O₃/NO_z. The ozone forming potential of each measured VOC has been determined using the MCM box model. The impacts of the above study on possible summertime ozone control strategies in Santiago are discussed.     

Performance evaluation of the portable MiniVOL particulate matter sampler

The MiniVOL sampler is a popular choice for use in air quality assessments because it is portable and inexpensive relative to fixed site monitors. However, little data exist on the performance characteristics of the sampler. The reliability, precision, and comparability of the portable MiniVOL PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 sampler under typical ambient conditions are described in this paper. Results indicate that the MiniVOL (a) operated reliably and (b) yielded statistically similar concentration measurements when co-located with another MiniVOL (r²=0.96 for PM₁₀ measurements and r²=0.95 for PM_2.5 measurements). Thus, the characterization of spatial distributions of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 mass concentrations with the MiniVOL can be accomplished with a high level of confidence. The MiniVOL also produced statistically comparable results when co-located with a Dichotomous Sampler (r²=0.83 for PM₁₀ measurements and r²=0.85 for PM_2.5 measurements) and a continuous mass sampling system (r²=0.90 for PM₁₀ measurements). Environmental factors such as ambient concentration, wind speed, temperature, and humidity may influence the relative measurement comparability between these sampling systems.     

A measurement campaign in a street canyon in Helsinki and comparison of results with predictions of the OSPM model

In 1997, a measuring campaign was conducted in a street canyon (Runeberg St.) in Helsinki. Hourly mean concentrations of CO, NO_x, NO₂ and O₃ were measured at street and roof levels, the latter in order to determine the urban background concentrations. The relevant hourly meteorological parameters were measured at roof level; these included wind speed and direction, temperature and solar radiation. Hourly street level measurements and on-site electronic traffic counts were conducted throughout the whole of 1997; roof level measurements were conducted for approximately two months, from 3 March to 30 April in 1997. CO and NO_x emissions from traffic were computed using measured hourly traffic volumes and evaluated emission factors. The Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) was used to calculate the street concentrations and the results were compared with the measurements. The overall agreement between measured and predicted concentrations was good for CO and NO_x (fractional bias were −4.2 and +4.5%, respectively), but the model overpredicted the measured NO₂ concentrations (fractional bias was +22%). The agreement between the measured and predicted values was also analysed in terms of its dependence on wind speed and direction; the latter analysis was performed separately for two categories of wind velocity. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed behaviour very well. The database, which contains all measured and predicted data, is available for further testing of other street canyon dispersion models. The dataset contains a larger proportion of low wind speed cases, compared with other available street canyon measurement datasets.     

Measurements and analyses of nitrogen oxides and ozone in the yard and on the roof of a street-canyon in Suzhou

The concentrations of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides and ozone characterised by very fast chemical reactions can significantly vary within urban street-canyon due to the short distances between sources and receptor. With the primary objective to analyse this issue, NO, NO₂, NO_x, O₃, BTX, and wind flow field were continuously measured for 1 week at two heights (a street-level yard and a 25-m-high rooftop) in an urban canyon in Suzhou (China). The yard ozone concentrations were found to be up to six times lower than on the roof. Different frequency distributions (FD), dynamical and chemical processes of the pollutant variations from yard to roof are discussed to explain the findings. The predominant factors for the dissimilar pollutant vertical diffusion at the two measurement locations were associated to dissimilar fluid-dynamic and heterogeneous removal effects that likely induced dissimilar ozone chemical processes relative to NO_x and BTX precursors.     

Simultaneous sampling of NH3, HNO3, HC1, SO2 and H2O2 in ambient air by a wet annular denuder system

A new sampling device is described for the simultaneous collection of NH₃, HNO₃, HCl, SO₂ and H₂O₂ in ambient air. The apparatus is based on air sampling by two parallel annular denuder tubes. The gases are collected by absorption in solutions present in the annulus of the denuder tubes. After a sampling time of 30 min at flow rate of 32 ℓ min⁻¹ the solutions are extracted from the denuders and analyzed off-line. The detection limits of NH₃, HNO₃, HCL and SO₂ are in the order of 0.1–0.5 μm⁻³. For H₂O₂ the detection limit is 0.01 μm⁻³. The reproducibility is 5–10% at the level of ambient air concentrations. Comparison of this novel technique with existing methods gives satisfactory results. The compact set-up offers the possibility of field experiments without the need of extensive equipment.     

Characterization of Several Integrative Sampling Methods for Nitric Acid,Sulphur Dioxide and Atmospheric Particles

Laboratory and field experiments were performed to evaluate integrative measurement methods for atmospheric nitrates, sulphate and sulphur dioxide. Denuder tubes and several filter media were tested under laboratory and field conditions. Effects of sampling variables such as temperature and relative humidity, flow rates, concentration, loading capacity and artifacts due to NO, NO₂ and SO₂ were also evaluated. The integrative filter sampling method and the ion chromatographic analytical procedure gave a measurement precision (relative standard deviation) of ±11.5 percent for particulate NO₃ ^? on Teflon and ±15.6 percent for gaseous HNO₃ on nylon; for both these constituents, the detection limit was about 0.1 μ m^?3.     

Precursor reductions and ground-level ozone in the Continental United States

Numerous papers analyze ground-level ozone (O₃) trends since the 1980s, but few have linked O₃ trends with observed changes in nitrogen oxide (NO_x) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and ambient concentrations. This analysis of emissions and ambient measurements examines this linkage across the United States on multiple spatial scales from continental to urban. O₃ concentrations follow the general decreases in both NO_x and VOC emissions and ambient concentrations of precursors (nitrogen dioxide, NO₂; nonmethane organic compounds, NMOCs). Annual fourth-highest daily peak 8-hr average ozone and annual average or 98th percentile daily maximum hourly NO₂ concentrations show a statistically significant (p < 0.05) linear fit whose slope is less than 1:1 and intercept is in the 30 to >50 ppbv range. This empirical relationship is consistent with current understanding of O₃ photochemistry. The linear O₃–NO₂ relationships found from our multispatial scale analysis can be used to extrapolate the rate of change of O₃ with projected NO_x emission reductions, which suggests that future declines in annual fourth-highest daily average 8-hr maximum O₃ concentrations are unlikely to reach 65 ppbv or lower everywhere in the next decade. Measurements do not indicate increased annual reduction rates in (high) O₃ concentrations beyond the multidecadal precursor proportionality, since aggressive measures for NO_x and VOC reduction are in place and have not produced an accelerated O₃ reduction rate beyond that prior to the mid-2000s. Empirically estimated changes in O₃ with emissions suggest that O₃ is less sensitive to precursor reductions than is found by the CAMx (v. 6.1) photochemical model. Options for increasing the rate of O₃ change are limited by photochemical factors, including the increase in NO_x sensitivity with time (NMOC/NO_x ratio increase), increase in O₃ production efficiency at lower NO_x concentrations (higher O₃/NO_y ratio), and the presence of natural NO_x and NMOC precursors and background O₃.

Implications:?This analysis demonstrates empirical relations between O₃ and precursors based on long term trends in U.S. locations. The results indicate that ground-level O₃ concentrations have responded predictably to reductions in VOC and NO_x since the 1980s. The analysis reveals linear relations between the highest O₃ and NO₂ concentrations. Extrapolation of the historic trends to the future with expected continued precursor reductions suggest that achieving the 2014 proposed reduction in the U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard to a level between 65 and 70 ppbv is unlikely within the next decade. Comparison of measurements with national results from a regulatory photochemical model, CAMx, v. 6.1, suggests that model predictions are more sensitive to emissions changes than the observations would support.     

Optimization of artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms for surface ozone concentration forecasting

Introduction

This study proposes three methodologies to define artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms (GAs) to predict the next-day hourly average surface ozone (O₃) concentrations. GAs were applied to define the activation function in hidden layer and the number of hidden neurons.

Methods

Two of the methodologies define threshold models, which assume that the behaviour of the dependent variable (O₃ concentrations) changes when it enters in a different regime (two and four regimes were considered in this study). The change from one regime to another depends on a specific value (threshold value) of an explanatory variable (threshold variable), which is also defined by GAs. The predictor variables were the hourly average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and O₃ (recorded in the previous day at an urban site with traffic influence) and also meteorological data (hourly averages of temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed). The study was performed for the period from May to August 2004.

Results and discussion

Several models were achieved and only the best model of each methodology was analysed. In threshold models, the variables selected by GAs to define the O₃ regimes were temperature, CO and NO₂ concentrations, due to their importance in O₃ chemistry in an urban atmosphere.

Conclusion

In the prediction of O₃ concentrations, the threshold model that considers two regimes was the one that fitted the data most efficiently.